p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.2726386751702555 | 5FwRzFVgfJGrQRFTqCaO | {"NO": 276.72657043220346, "YES": 496.53399448451574} | 0.17280194808242946 | if-the-conservative-dating-app-the | 738.476903916207 | If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female? | 1704085140000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0.019388163661668952 | 1.383756771862523 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660345311105 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 12, 7:02pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If the conservative dating app \"The Right Stuff\" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of it's active users will be female?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705416448994 | 340 | wasabipesto | 1705416449290 | 1.1 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 18 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1660346058998}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1660346054820}, {"name": "Sex a... | ["internet", "culture-default", "sex-and-love", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11967320910214363 | 0.5 | 1688499807154 | 1704146511337 | 0.17 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7831568262216142 | rzr5wzk1GKTG5dLappFK | {"NO": 47.06551640424736, "YES": 117.37623665364583} | 0.64 | will-manifold-choose-to-cooperate-o-8f4e4ea28772 | 451.25826727191344 | Will Manifold choose to cooperate or defect? | 1662399984859 | U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8072925257735046 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660347763885 | keri | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After close, I will resolve this market to PROB according to the following formula:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolve_prob = min(100, abs(300 - 4 * closing_prob))", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.205778932150377, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662399984859 | 158.75460038646452 | zoli | 1662400003179 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1660361705685}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1660361972107}] | ["whale-watching", "fun"] | 0.5 | False | 1662239297576 | 1662400001268 | 0.64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40445230803827664 | GC38KuhEhfkboA4Qck8n | {"NO": 196.98357335456367, "YES": 29.365637701471908} | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-1day-sooner-t | 287.1229537219265 | How long will it take 1Day Sooner to hire someone to direct its hep C program? (in days) | 1673506740000 | xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0545529140896863 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660348473432 | Gavriel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 12, 5:57pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "How long will it take 1Day Sooner to hire someone to direct its hep C program?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → How long will it take 1Day Sooner to ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.914784931456329, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682876816257 | 120 | GavrielK | 1682876919156 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 22 | 10 | 0.19424460431654678 | 1673496294118 | 1682876917048 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | taCePUSuBEmVJqwhpu90 | {"NO": 527.0421232849908, "YES": 18.973815484939244} | 1 | will-james-medlock-resolve-the-foll | 450.0910043647098 | Will James Medlock resolve the following market honestly? “Will Democrats pass a substantial reconciliation bill before the midterm elections?” | 1660573949947 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.019153559261522 | True | play | YES | public | 1660355066377 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if market resolves NO. Resolves NO for any other resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesMedlock/will-democrats-pass-a-substantial-r", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9748267412892804, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660573949947 | 100 | BTE | 1660573276660 | 0 | 4 | 0 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660355172129}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "... | ["metaforecasting", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1660573273888 | 1660396929635 | 0.9625697386995582 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ltUSd5f8n9OFfcCyIqPw | which-feature-should-manifold-marke | 399.5540331347191 | Which feature should Manifold Markets kill? | 1660967940000 | xs7PjBvKveZJ8ZRULK0srmq9UPG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7239361837764875 | True | play | 4e5967d87e25 | public | 1660355143294 | Timothy Rooney | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am currently annoyed at the tipping feature on comments. This got me thinking... what feature should Manifold kill next?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the most ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4717557254892392, "platformFee": 0.1179389313723098, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680827332140 | 760 | TimothyRooney | 1680827341112 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzKzagHNGQ6Ff-JqGsJiieY_Wo6msr0hg-tRvLg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0cf1ecbdc650", "prob": 0.05298201366254758, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0582411850299338, "userId": "xs7PjBvKveZJ8ZRULK0srmq9UPG2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.915351962449723, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ltUSd5f8n9OFfcCyIqPw", "createdTime": 1660355143502, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660359743047}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 166961257564... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "please-resolve"] | 1660920394603 | 1680827338130 | {"4e5967d87e25": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23848706674839384 | 6Tk4PycjgTzdSwGZgZ5k | {"NO": 62.35349740418864, "YES": 899.2241470664118} | 0 | will-construction-on-penlink-begin | 807.0821746519631 | Will construction on Penlink begin in 2022? | 1672488000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.069402421533031 | True | play | NO | public | 1660355720365 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nzta.govt.nz/projects/penlink/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nzta.govt.nz/projects/penlink/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672609751118 | 160 | NcyRocks | 1672474794794 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "O Mahurangi-Penlink", "slug": "o-mahurangipenlink", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "sqeRAdhxbRydyUh2fZjS", "createdTime": 1667686572301}] | ["o-mahurangipenlink"] | 0.5 | 1672474794623 | 1671141578574 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13535817836682404 | PZtQT1daFvYTnUgwP5cE | {"NO": 146.8381825017324, "YES": 2213.294276998577} | 0 | will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a | 2747.5073172432994 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.340345140015738 | True | play | NO | public | 1660356201774 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.811643520718716, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673419879601 | 260 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710456566721 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 20 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1671570506144 | 1662505464653 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25240725049171175 | ixDhLuu8EJmC4OQQwRyq | {"NO": 922.8194887490622, "YES": 33589.20000589715} | 0 | will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a-99e01f724b3f | 218775.35987224727 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | 1704085140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0.043697521807600025 | 0.4115900917659978 | True | basic | NO | public | 1660356294789 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.139678910785948, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704097076246 | 2440 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710456594072 | 5.7 | 15 | 505 | 0 | 1 | 49 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🎆 New Y... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia"] | 0.2474187809876352 | 0.5 | 1704069428345 | 1704097015190 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4402743839165777 | QS0iI55ksxUEXW6RxoAA | {"NO": 996.4179733580947, "YES": 990.1260028440256} | 0.4418360257444222 | conditional-on-trump-being-convicte | 310.79449108379856 | Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, in what year is the first such instance? | 2177470740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 2.308643877934986e-16 | 9.732575438374356 | False | play | public | 1660356423136 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YEAR + (DAY - 1) / length(YEAR)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9333827302732325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1717115347472 | 0.1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "trump-indictments", "olivia"] | 0.09448119470359864 | 0.568060967173733 | 1709191401094 | 1717115345652 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1955036431833937 | kexae0FEDtHe96oVZP7n | {"NO": 185.74727666951958, "YES": 827.4061900949577} | 0 | will-my-friend-andrew-still-be-dati | 3803.406323316447 | Will my friend Andrew still be dating his current girlfriend on January 1, 2023? | 1672640103599 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.344956917400223 | True | play | NO | public | 1660358211282 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024 market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-my-friend-andrew-still-be-dati-b8b5c66ee022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-my-friend-andrew-stil... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.037667091460845, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672640103599 | 280 | Conflux | 1672590386202 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 28 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1660450041144}, {"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665542598433}, {"name": "Sex and love"... | ["proofniks", "dating", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1672590386098 | 1660569306568 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7007991984378451 | LkL0C4bzF2zKvjPwlKW2 | {"NO": 433.0563692038884, "YES": 169.97155196257967} | 0.84 | what-critic-score-will-black-panthe | 463.4038489727212 | What critic score will "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" have on Rotten Tomatoes one week after its US release? | 1668769140000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8428651339294608 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660359318393 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-18 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5403330487077036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668777348968 | 240 | NcyRocks | 1668689080276 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1660360082014}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 16603... | ["entertainment", "culture-default", "media-rating-futures", "marvel-cinematic-universe"] | 0.5 | 1668689080043 | 1668021248890 | 0.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5253580273158941 | qf8M0aE465ssE9pO2obt | {"NO": 250.24131548071355, "YES": 390.78751875038023} | 0 | will-i-be-in-usa-on-a-h1b-visa-by-m | 500.8270519661267 | Will I be in USA on a H1B visa by market close? | 1671350340000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1199785627931427 | True | play | NO | public | 1660365014382 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if by market close I'm in USA on a H1B visa. I won the H1B lottery, and am currently in USA on J1. This depends on whether I'll be staying in USA after my residency at OpenAI ends (which could be at OpenAI or elsewhere), and on whet... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2390213554995515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671399801215 | 320 | agentydragon | 1671336875979 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Rai's personal", "slug": "rais-personal", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "Yc6gPlZaH1x8JSf76N1X", "createdTime": 1660365014756}] | ["rais-personal"] | 0.5 | 1671336875825 | 0.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gq857RpeEDR7nwoH2hoS | which-messenger-apps-will-i-have-ru | 2 | Which messenger apps will I have running on my computer in the background at market close? | 1660377621521 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.012422314310263 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660366837968 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the apps I'll have running on my computer in the background most of day of market close. At time of writing, this is: Telegram, Slack, Element. I also have WhatsApp installed but do not have it running most of the time. I've recently st... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660377621521 | 320 | agentydragon | 1660377637144 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3aa92173531d", "prob": 0.23106497500961168, "text": "Telegram", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.2663874245859, "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.44222104687488, "textFts": "'telegram':1", "contractId": "gq857RpeEDR7nwoH2hoS", "createdTime": 1660366837968, "probChanges": {"day":... | [{"name": "Rai's personal", "slug": "rais-personal", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "Yc6gPlZaH1x8JSf76N1X", "createdTime": 1660366838331}] | ["rais-personal"] | 1660374856620 | 1660377631200 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6092901804725162 | Db7o9wiZkwitmCOzEClr | {"NO": 127.31237486638065, "YES": 148.47997586759084} | 0.5614009449443713 | what-will-be-the-volume-of-the-larg-e144901ada1e | 14.00000000000005 | What will be the volume of the largest market to be resolved incorrectly by the end of 2022? | 1672560000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.269293523370803 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660371391956 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes all markets from all time, even ones that closed before this market opened. I will not count markets for which it's unclear if they resolved correctly due to ambiguous resolution criteria.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673776966451 | 140 | IsaacKing | 1673776935172 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.6250005425260952 | 1669432751915 | 1673776933548 | 0.5614009449443713 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.930692570010442 | wag1hYqikqT1tivDIrcU | {"NO": 1843.6016361171612, "YES": 900.3059005443881} | 0.9649100000919785 | will-magic-the-gathering-still-be-b | 2197.2949876921234 | Will Magic: The Gathering still be being activly developed and printed in paper by the end of 2025? | 1767254400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1660371860516 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if they've moved over to entirely digital products and don't print paper cards anymore.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.005089999908021503, "month": 0.009264524634917337} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.326983133941378, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1720127669316 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "sIOL0UIyQ4X4LnHUY8LyjfOHhUW2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1660852186813}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.5 | 1720127666130 | 1719484401169 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 77MEfx9JiagWxB6iGXGx | {"NO": 16.10358511817352, "YES": 620.9797338056488} | 0 | by-the-end-of-september-will-manifo | 524.6318570773772 | By the end of September, will Manifold fix the market-creation UI to default to the correct ending time rather than one minute before it? | 1664607600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.950881684898343 | True | play | NO | public | 1660372138547 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now if I select a new market to close \"this year\", the ending time is actually set to one minute before the year ends, and I have to manually fix it. Same issue for the other options \"a day\", \"a week\", etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.652123271728304, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664632206175 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1667892617112 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660372138897}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1664591622906 | 1667892611075 | 0.025277047192784965 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27746193534742414 | X4s62aeX0GXH3EIwLAwk | {"NO": 98.169337663411, "YES": 911.0604224793159} | 0 | will-manifold-have-a-good-search-fu | 1097.9390873374452 | Will Manifold have a good search function by the end of 2022? | 1672560000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6757580622440846 | True | play | NO | public | 1660373262934 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The search box right now seems to be searching the title, text, and comments of markets, plus username of the market creator, and maybe other things too, resulting in a huge number of false positives. This makes it frustrating to find the markets I... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.002491086324704, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672728338419 | 220 | IsaacKing | 1672728400989 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660373263288}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "created... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1672317673287 | 1672728398142 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3638345906767071 | 4F71wizDl8aSj0App5lC | {"NO": 39.56270490040558, "YES": 525.8628546105025} | 0 | did-the-fbi-plant-evidence-against | 699.8121266827634 | Did the FBI plant evidence against Trump at Mar-a-Lago? | 1672538055916 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7384923408781314 | True | play | NO | public | 1660396863070 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/president-donald-trump-fbi-plant-evidence-florida-home-mag-lago-1732923%3famp=1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/president-do... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.893171420396378, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672538055916 | 120 | MartinRandall | 1667246424590 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660396863479}] | ["magaland"] | 0.5 | 1667246424388 | 1663888627169 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07596240457479773 | QRAEmgnkz8a38JcLboUq | {"NO": 921.7076578751966, "YES": 1351.5563971588322} | 0.05308584034675737 | will-marjorie-taylor-greene-ever-be | 1238.368652488706 | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene ever be president of a new confederacy? | 1913515140000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.467184935492286 | False | basic | public | 1660398459555 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES when Majorie Taylor Greene becomes president of a secessionist movement. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.21056263496567, "platformFee": 0.02054558259644989, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1716232294339 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660724840590}] | ["magaland"] | 0.5 | 1716232291032 | 1676937327905 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PyoFA59R0ltPRilk8V2K | who-will-be-the-new-york-jets-start | 963 | Who will be the New York Jets starting QB Week 1 of the 2022 NFL regular season? | 1662915540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6610633688983905 | True | play | a9acb0e2873e | public | 1660400318610 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Zach Wilson sustained ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "an injury", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34391061/jets-qb-zach-wilson-exits-preseason-opener-right-knee-injury", "class": "no-u... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662921072521 | 360 | dglid | 1662898649318 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e7f811ccc036", "prob": 0.008849800304256136, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08919883734300595, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.989993266020901, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PyoFA59R0ltPRilk8V2K", "createdTime": 1660400319097, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "createdTime": 1660400318962}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1660819519085}] | ["fantasy-football-nfl", "nfl"] | 1662898649051 | 1662873312343 | {"a9acb0e2873e": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kN0Ac0Y5duh57Jvpbykn | {"NO": 125.5062592474574, "YES": 79.6773010363034} | 0.8 | what-fraction-of-pronoun-instances | 135 | What fraction of pronoun instances will be correct? | 1660424817463 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7983400274138255 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660408062880 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're going to a Bat Mitzvah and the Bat Mitzvah themself uses they/them pronouns. I'm curious how often the rabbi etc will use the correct pronouns...", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.528415350098663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660424817463 | 100 | dreev | 1660422630847 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 1660422629676 | 1660408667420 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5098082213739911 | oxDNpO80gJW0FcJazxaS | {"NO": 1036.3035349649833, "YES": 955.7620443409332} | 0.5299999999999989 | when-will-be-the-first-year-that-gd | 322.1091664802409 | When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)? | 2544040740000 | T73YKUvE2KQHcZqKC2RH4TzJe2G3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.594654487839033 | False | play | public | 1660410203723 | MaxG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are reasons to think that we might see exploding rates of economic growth this century. One scenario is that the development of artificial general intelligence could lead to rapid scientific and technological progress, resulting in fast econo... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -9.992007221626409e-16, "week": -9.992007221626409e-16, "month": -9.992007221626409e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.251506873728384, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaxG | 1695385975538 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMax_Goerlitz%2FsRmBPujzv-.33?alt=media&token=01cf19bf-5194-4a28-b787-29f7b501f536 | 13 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "T73YKUvE2KQHcZqKC2RH4TzJe2G3", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1660410204093}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.358974358974359 | 1695385975068 | 1672744700712 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | coPDwDrYXB1jgWkyO272 | {"NO": 15.620064626020167, "YES": 640.202216791205} | 0 | will-manifold-add-the-ability-to-hi | 692.3522182490204 | Will Manifold add the ability to hide groups or specific users from my home page in 30 days? | 1663052340000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.080762479648538 | True | play | NO | public | 1660416590873 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Manifold adds the ability to hide users or groups such that I can easily hide the Fantasy Football league stuff this market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0884478146113974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663092549445 | 100 | SneakySly | 1663019611110 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660416591246}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1663019610945 | 1662487726305 | 0.02381752659007771 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tkXOVq0rXEruzwP1br8t | what-email-service-will-i-be-using | 479.27765639540337 | What email service will I be using in a year? | 1691910000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.741480151187566 | True | play | adcfe227bb64 | public | 1660417518546 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now I'm using Yahoo Mail. It's absolutely terrible and I regret my life choices. Gmail is the natural alternative, but I'm a little uncomfortable with Google's track record of surveillance. I'd like my emails to actually be private. I know th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1694529944223 | 620 | IsaacKing | 1694529988143 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f570306f2855", "prob": 0.0727616394795982, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8344273990527848, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 23.37703584136999, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tkXOVq0rXEruzwP1br8t", "createdTime": 1660417518762, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 7 | 13 | 1691907473200 | 1694529987603 | {"adcfe227bb64": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6398686255754091 | lCsVO0tMqQvtyWF7I0NA | {"NO": 911.7666131392547, "YES": 179.1855329882463} | 1 | will-i-cause-drama-by-violating-a-s | 1383.3177938531821 | Will I cause drama by violating a social norm on Manifold at some point in the next year? | 1672944887856 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3940109291446217 | True | play | YES | public | 1660418111331 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I prefer having strict rules to follow, and I find fuzzy norms confusing and frustrating. This tends to lead to me pushing boundaries too far and making people upset with me.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conten... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.868079230010256, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672944887856 | 340 | IsaacKing | 1672937199042 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672348727537}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1672937198889 | 1672934343371 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ogZYOpcenHKZuCIfpDLw | why-are-the-shadows-from-the-blinds | 210 | Why are the shadows from the blinds doing this? | 1661065140000 | YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.76442857219273 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660440304823 | Rachel Shu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See embedded video, or if it doesn't work, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://i.imgur.com/8NPrS6Y.mp4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/8NPrS6Y.mp4", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661405108009 | 300 | noumena | 1661064479185 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b485faac4b08", "prob": 0.10405827263267431, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.964815021994776, "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 42.74705733937501, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ogZYOpcenHKZuCIfpDLw", "createdTime": 1660440305427, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1660440305224}] | ["science-default"] | 1661064479032 | 1660442566371 | {"66f147add405": 93.69047619047618, "a20d6980c5f1": 6.309523809523811} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11499871683092706 | gBugUHihzaRfAlwOFhvg | {"NO": 244.86415326436872, "YES": 2988.16131620195} | 0 | will-my-friend-andrew-still-be-dati-b8b5c66ee022 | 4481.4455187758795 | Will my friend Andrew still be dating his current girlfriend on January 1, 2024? | 1704138661459 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0.37498247508382465 | 3.0150282244900803 | True | play | NO | public | 1660443275722 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023 market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-my-friend-andrew-still-be-dati", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-my-friend-andrew-still-be-dati", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.487619696804186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704138661459 | 380 | Conflux | 1704138662408 | 2.2 | 31 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665542556228}, {"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1660450054487}, {"name": "Sex and love"... | ["proofniks", "dating", "sex-and-love", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.18808968081895214 | 0.5 | 1704134759857 | 1676579748511 | 0.01 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5793364358790142 | xHOzPA3b8pTzbUumLcYw | {"NO": 2166.527476945744, "YES": 70.28009875669673} | 1 | if-donald-trump-is-a-candidate-for | 3396.2545080662826 | If Donald Trump is a candidate for president while under indictment will the judge find him in contempt of court at any point? | 1714485037069 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1660498155072 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Trump is found in contempt of court by the judge overseeing any potential future indictment that coincides with him running for president. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.444086579196469, "platformFee": 5.82895008827626, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714485037069 | 340 | BTE | 1714485130179 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660498162475}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892013}] | ["magaland", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1714485028162 | 1714485128699 | False | 0.98 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | U95CKPE2XXVswlrsZuMx | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-imagegeneration-ais-be-able-to | 0 | Will image-generation AIs be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024? | 1660503473737 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660503435972 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inaccurate title, go here instead: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-imagegeneration-ai-be-able", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-imagegeneration-ai-be-able", "clas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660503473737 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1660503435972 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999997 | QR2PWO5QOf1sSeohrQD9 | {"NO": 55.02503057370899, "YES": 181.73547376051863} | 0.23240798007437835 | if-the-manifold-team-asks-former-co | 499.3447909436474 | If the manifold team asks former collaborators for negative properties of me as a software performer, will they learn anything that I'm not aware of / didn't tell them myself? | 1663138740000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.948429627748352 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660508316852 | Quinn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 14, 1:21pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If the manifold team asks former collaborators for negative properties of me as a software performer, will they learn anything that I'm not aware of / told them myself?", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676438434924 | 100 | Quinn | 1676438431488 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.5 | 1663116207429 | 1676438428140 | 0.23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.848057743373009 | MUyVbW44JdzcgPqpAj0v | {"NO": 1154.999389725653, "YES": 939.0382465605812} | 0.8728556407258234 | before-2030-will-any-job-not-at-qur | 346.265452470997 | Before 2030, will any job not at QURI ask for squiggle proficiency? | 1893455940000 | FR5SxcMAUtWmgpxLDC58Rjcs6xX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.891598015868812 | False | basic | public | 1660555791657 | Alex L | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spirit of the question is job requires squiggle like data analyst requires excel, working on squiggle doesn't count. Still counts of Ozzie renames the language or org etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.363280594314815, "platformFee": 0.10895904014670922, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AlexL | 1713851046864 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjfeQdgmE5bk_fJMNxJ_tszaENgx-o0_qGK3skCPw=s96-c | 1 | 10 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "FR5SxcMAUtWmgpxLDC58Rjcs6xX2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1660555792116}] | ["metaforecasting"] | 0.5 | 1713851042765 | 1660576999132 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16296584331196795 | V1kDArPnPRcTPH6DWyg8 | {"NO": 829.9196865855018, "YES": 8117.933137902413} | 0 | will-mark-cuban-run-for-president-i | 28461.297189792458 | Will Mark Cuban run for president in 2024? | 1705639332143 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.3349092502369125 | 0.7127442259478061 | True | basic | NO | public | 1660567671865 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he announces and files paperwork that he is running for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.225312310053368, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705639332143 | 1292.251909734894 | BTE | 1705685222057 | 1.2 | 2 | 113 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1660579116539}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.17103286071267765 | 0.5 | 1705639326144 | 1705685220522 | 0.02 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.042793764728638196 | 4SiLRtUZmPl8ubSv0GBg | {"NO": 706.3565392549112, "YES": 3126.325121709222} | 0 | will-john-stewart-run-for-president | 4602.257721533898 | Will John Stewart run for president in 2024? | 1717084088760 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.04854555268963191 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1660567754218 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if John Stewart announces and files paperwork that he is running for President of the United States in 2024. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.11536578406445, "platformFee": 1.596703330542047, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717084088760 | 1000 | BTE | 1717084088760 | 1.1 | 44 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1660579141792}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869176}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.13384379105952318 | 0.5 | 1717079170786 | 1717079212528 | False | 0.01 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07022438790830024 | 9Blh7EW6TIzNgmXIyOID | {"NO": 782.4748537974147, "YES": 1260.041291174991} | 0.04480115526568436 | will-joe-biden-suffer-a-stroke-whil | 2593.7739502559675 | Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke while in office? | 1737435540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1660567982362 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden suffers a stroke during the remainder of his first term in office. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.003949685993837201} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.718405548998902, "platformFee": 0.029284878174869203, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1718417736886 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 29 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856943}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 16605794201... | ["global-macro", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.5 | 1718417733839 | 1660586488945 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09860068103553198 | O8qtPVi3e5t6ebMyeQRu | {"NO": 794.9485406231325, "YES": 986.5040708199347} | 0.08100571065217721 | will-data-from-the-james-webb-space | 5771.930258215029 | Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang? | 1734929940000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.39469043063204 | False | basic | public | 1660568810174 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if the images taken by the JWST discover abundant evidence that the Big Bang theory for how the universe started is wrong. Data collected by the telescope in the first few months of operation seems to be indicating exactly that, but it is ... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 0.015036140689799457} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.26079781993345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1718319377320 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 32 | [{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1660568810523}] | ["physics"] | 0.5 | 1718319374139 | 1697499868471 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7375706333344356 | ryoBVgcJc76PZA3pTWFB | {"NO": 53.158201518244724, "YES": 465.70030124943526} | 0.24289181752047181 | will-fox-news-lose-its-defamation-l | 1635.3262727023587 | Will Fox News lose its defamation lawsuit against Dominion? | 1681852157218 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1759448374147787 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660569488829 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the jury rules for the plaintiff (Dominion). Resolves NO if the jury rules for the defendant (Fox). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681852157218 | 330.58353923792976 | BTE | 1682020929095 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660569489237}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1666541836238}, {"name": "Court ... | ["magaland", "law-order", "court-cases"] | 0.5 | 1681848696979 | 1682020924558 | 0.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30102999566398125 | 0sXFohxT0uRM9bhS7yYx | {"NO": 129.30523630584668, "YES": 55.05989933183828} | 0.662757831681574 | what-will-be-the-average-number-of-5abe4686e9e0 | 139.93124583389852 | What will be the average number of unique betters across this market and my next four markets? | 1662755816124 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3843682729074516 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660575168815 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to max if above 10.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when the last of the five markets referenced resolves.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(If I forget to close it ASAP, I'l... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.8558987398637026, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662755816124 | 100 | Charlie | 1662755849256 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1660575169174}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.3010299956639812 | 1661980521398 | 1662755848449 | 0.662757831681574 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999996 | 6bltvOeyUQPfXMVvtG0L | {"NO": 167.33793788486952, "YES": 59.759311763959595} | 0 | will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-52bbe4b92804 | 396.7134338194393 | Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings 6 of 7 times AND achieve my Emile bedtime goal this week? | 1660911789074 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9036831044865004 | True | play | NO | public | 1660575939444 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bedtime goal via (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "emile.chat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://emile.chat", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.175572173222008, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660911789074 | 100 | Charlie | 1660911840586 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 6 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1660575939859}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm",... | ["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"] | 0.5 | 1660889034136 | 1660911835610 | 0.7368558542370363 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24061647365943864 | jRJ0l8Pz0LKc3cRIOcOL | {"NO": 507.28745588670256, "YES": 3054.020236324322} | 0 | will-any-antijapanese-protests-take | 3871.6700402836877 | Will any Anti-Japanese protests take place in any certain city across China before 2024? | 1704038340000 | JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7794907081047526 | True | play | NO | public | 1660585100145 | Stormtrooper TK-293 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WILL RESOLVE \"YES\" if any anti-Japan protests take place in any certain Chinese city (including Hongkong SAR and Macau SAR) by 1Jan 2024. Anti-Japanese sentiment (banners, flags, musical instruments, or wear team uniforms by sports fans) at sport... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.688107546333049, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704424963163 | 800 | stormtk293 | 1704424963536 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660585100558}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1660701995051}, {"name": "Global Ma... | ["politics-default", "china", "global-macro", "pacific-rim", "asia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703784669636 | 1704424958446 | False | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8318784475567504 | viQUyNPPREnjNeDtsawn | {"NO": 9980.45322707387, "YES": 275.8386349524917} | 1 | will-there-be-a-noticeable-influenz | 16007.709732988766 | Will there be a noticeable influenza season in 2022-23? | 1678467527795 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8390523872482736 | True | play | YES | public | 1660590426456 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despite fears of a \"twindemic\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-70... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4265542412479775, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678467527795 | 560 | egroj | 1678482354057 | 0 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 32 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1660590426872}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1678467470304 | 1678482346266 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FtrcSgGZAuYgKOBBKhoH | when-will-influenza-activity-peak-d | 2080.718161243327 | When will influenza activity peak during the 2022-23 influenza season in the US? | 1688046284474 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6609672259809045 | True | play | 8ba9acaaa54d | public | 1660591523253 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most influenza seasons peak in February, but there is significant variability (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688046284474 | 520 | egroj | 1685996669925 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a22508dc0fc5", "prob": 0.0009791031422476165, "text": "October 2022", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0025883706287721515, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.641025480747827, "textFts": "'2022':2 'octob':1", "contractId": "FtrcSgGZAuYgKOBBKhoH", "createdTime": 1660591523253, "prob... | 4 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1660591523639}] | ["science-default"] | 1685996669767 | 1673723079321 | {"8ba9acaaa54d": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43111463803613653 | 4jgMftshmgrnenOpLPQE | {"NO": 65.49276824756149, "YES": 239.81515711645108} | 0.11 | how-often-do-you-accidentally-quick | 348.8794285212074 | How often do you accidentally quick bet on mobile? | 1663221540000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7628718772821683 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660593855158 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What % of days while using manifold on a mobile device do you accidentally hit a quickbet arrow while scrolling?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 15, 2:47pm: this is a poll, I'll resolve to... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.84974857963625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663444493509 | 120 | ian | 1663145534233 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660593855490}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1663145530596 | 1661106768890 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6483545510537762 | xFTsgHgllIR5KjiST6eA | {"NO": 304.26958806705306, "YES": 100.75908671053602} | 0.95 | do-you-optimize-your-market-title-f | 193.11752762480418 | Do you optimize your market title for quickbet-ability? | 1663221540000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.398712110027065 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660596397702 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll - will resolve to % yes's. You could perhaps put the % of binary markets you optimize if you don't do it for all binary markets.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.612884308142772, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663444243654 | 160 | ian | 1663455854455 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660596398039}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1663211001656 | 1663455852594 | 0.95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5973155252512573 | irkFRPe43yefZqy49pBG | {"NO": 1994.7813929776971, "YES": 647.2610891844198} | 1 | will-ais-do-1000-full-time-jobs-of | 5498.3548853800485 | Will AIs do 1000 full time jobs of writers and artists by the end of 2022 | 1672559940000 | jm40o5VkhhVQtBkKrYR6JepCIH73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.43865883551065177 | True | basic | YES | public | 1660596883800 | Benjamin Kadish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 15, 4:18pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will AIs do 1000 full time jobs of writers and artists by the end of 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will AIs do 1000 full time jobs of writers... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.197607586807349, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673460882877 | 1060 | BenjaminKadish | 1673367702241 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-Fr1vNfqdQ3BHhjK48Xf1_wbcK9e7qDYBlHCeQ=s96-c | 2 | 60 | 0 | 3 | 57 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1661005043667}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "jm40o5VkhhVQtBkKrYR6JepCIH73", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 166... | ["science-default", "technical-ai-timelines", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1672550344773 | 1673367675326 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | MNOuAVHazHGAjY40iQlu | {"NO": 76.73189456127216, "YES": 130.32390321100146} | 0.370585587975973 | will-signal-require-a-phone-number | 60 | Will Signal require a phone number to register by the end of the year? | 1660610010763 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6686328141530908 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660598049218 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Signal currently requires users to register using a unique phone number. They have hinted at moving away from this in the past [0] and it is often cited as one of the biggest drawbacks to the service [1]. Recently Signal's SMS provider was subject ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660610010763 | 100 | wasabipesto | 1660610024977 | 0 | 2 | 0 | True | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1660598049607}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1660602112622 | 1660610018012 | 0.370585587975973 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | L6KhttRFex0Ius1hNbFu | {"NO": 8.139053560356217, "YES": 1228.6440832270755} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-mana-redemption-77bb8f85b270 | 2116.273813621332 | Will manifold allow mana redemptions for gift cards by end of September? | 1664607540000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.329983549690512 | True | play | NO | public | 1660599518861 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if Manifold allows redeeming M$ for gift cards by 9/30. Resolves YES as soon as this happens, even if the feature is later removed. Resolves NO if it hasn't happened by 9/30.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.877291525086228, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664761867813 | 100 | jack | 1664658766877 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660599519223}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1664587955995 | 1664658764505 | 0.006580825140854982 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22745223677623858 | y6bRyp6uhr2zPONcR2HN | {"NO": 130.1464273298605, "YES": 683.4283887136247} | 0 | will-manifold-support-sell-orders-w | 580.4436068980685 | Will Manifold support SELL orders with limits by market close? | 1667275140000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6830278337210105 | True | play | NO | public | 1660608230128 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES iff at close I can place a sell order with a limit via both the GUI and API", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8988636316045875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667612719574 | 220 | MarketManagerBot | 1667274331963 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1660613001448}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1660612998043}, {"n... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1667274331872 | 1666030610341 | 0.05309000997316038 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
279xxdUSth2cvaXA4dZ3 | what-types-of-infrequent-lottery-ma | 136 | What types of infrequent lottery markets should this account support? | 1661227140000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.806910845064065 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660608336055 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to MKT (less subsidy), so if your idea is good, you will make mana off of it", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8, "platformFee": 2, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661234534981 | 380 | MarketManagerBot | 1660859295273 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "91c86a2feef6", "prob": 0.17954610744039068, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.5592622193313685, "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.54280463745662, "textFts": "", "contractId": "279xxdUSth2cvaXA4dZ3", "createdTime": 1660608336273, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1660612918528}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1660612914796}, {"name": "Ma... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia", "management-of-olivias-bot"] | 1660715370715 | 1660859293478 | {"40c3f3dce594": 2.554791029561672, "4236906ef3af": 28.03261977573905, "64b92f84a97f": 29.306829765545363, "91942e5744ef": 7.779051987767583, "e4db531f757f": 29.759174311926603, "faf5f70a9e7f": 2.567533129459735} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5113510315989693 | DwcsHc3xfWp34xYu4LFB | {"NO": 134.2974741018706, "YES": 106.0189733882332} | 1 | will-daylen-still-be-using-bereal-o | 148.84650409520185 | Will Daylen still be using BeReal on Oct 15? | 1665903540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4479258398114103 | True | play | YES | public | 1660610909847 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1148535363779573, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665941082153 | 120 | Austin | 1665903486196 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 1665903483947 | 0.5699999999999978 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23349118071092112 | EyQKpQCYJe32LmXGI2EB | {"NO": 101.25834268781814, "YES": 890.4133348813405} | 0 | will-signal-allow-signups-without-a | 736.6912263917752 | Will Signal allow signups without a phone number by the end of the year? | 1672549140000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.080787043842086 | True | play | NO | public | 1660612090254 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Signal currently requires users to register using a unique phone number. They have hinted at moving away from this in the past [0] and it is often cited as one of the biggest drawbacks to the service [1]. Recently Signal's SMS provider was subject ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.557194875052618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672586629243 | 200 | wasabipesto | 1672544081471 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661860946952}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1672544078684 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ssJOmFfgijMqCtrSZxp9 | free-response-5050-1 | 139.926842322063 | Free Response 50/50 #1 | 1661227140000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.81943361137258 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660616728422 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to a 50% share between the subsidy and one other entry chosen randomly (weighted by probability)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will periodically add to the subsidy s... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.562926307117481, "platformFee": 1.3907315767793702, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661236141320 | 740.0000000000002 | MarketManagerBot | 1710462522717 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b0c21870b1f7", "prob": 0.2064742276429601, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.042755345784126, "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.910073961764322, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ssJOmFfgijMqCtrSZxp9", "createdTime": 1660616728671, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}] | ["fun", "olivia", "gambling", "short-fuse"] | False | 1661200633910 | 1661254592010 | {"7246a1969b39": 50, "7bd995e933a2": 50} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | RXkzjTod7uHurTTSzJkD | {"NO": 120.29129695705936, "YES": 83.13153364344988} | 0.649 | prop-a-sf-nov-2022-retiree-suppleme | 39.70870304294065 | Prop A, SF Nov 2022, Retiree Supplemental Cost of Living Adjustment; Retirement Board Contract with Executive Director, % Yes votes | 1668719597643 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.789630066741182 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660619435167 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop A, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719597643 | 100 | barak | 1666899584303 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660619435555}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621167728}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899584144 | 0.649 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jDq2W11qpnmgu99ysFH9 | {"NO": 110, "YES": 90.90909090909089} | 0.746 | prop-a-sf-nov-2022-public-works-dep | 10 | Prop B, SF Nov 2022, Public Works Department and Commission, Sanitation and Streets Department and Commission, % Yes votes | 1668719630187 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.777129019308858 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660619584907 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop B, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719630187 | 100 | barak | 1666899590283 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660619585292}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621181882}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899590149 | 0.746 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | iKXwa821wXYAUclCmtNB | {"NO": 90.90909090909089, "YES": 110} | 0.672 | prop-c-sf-nov-2022-homelessness-ove | 10 | Prop C, SF Nov 2022, Homelessness Oversight Commission, % Yes votes | 1668719650080 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.77712901930886 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660619719609 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop C, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719650080 | 100 | barak | 1666899591865 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660619719959}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621198840}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899591700 | 0.672 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49924584189297017 | 2OHmZdTW3RBKRHOOoKNa | {"NO": 116.12986948479005, "YES": 124.00997506424184} | 0.49 | prop-d-sf-nov-2022-affordable-homes | 42.59725530892985 | Prop D, SF Nov 2022, Affordable Homes Now, % Yes votes | 1668719669485 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4250933811812327 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660619983245 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop D, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719669485 | 120 | barak | 1668668916313 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422769998}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 16617470979... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot", "housing-markets", "yimby"] | 0.5 | 1668668916194 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4959333465582224 | oKBjJJ1LzM0SgXCoZblA | {"NO": 119.3135571745215, "YES": 120.66150929683444} | 0.45899999999999996 | prop-e-sf-nov-2022-affordable-housi | 43 | Prop E, SF Nov 2022, Affordable Housing - Board of Supervisors, % Yes votes | 1668719692089 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4250199377429897 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620096826 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop E, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719692089 | 120 | barak | 1666899569821 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097933}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1660621227982}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot", "housing-markets"] | 0.5 | 1666899569695 | 0.45899999999999996 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | eTfYSN3obs39PYTvtldG | {"NO": 124.81741328738877, "YES": 80.11702643584887} | 0.826 | prop-f-sf-nov-2022-library-preserva | 44.73009802482841 | Prop F, SF Nov 2022, Library Preservation Fund, % Yes votes | 1668720199578 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.797109981576683 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620175735 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop F, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.45248868778280543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720199578 | 100 | barak | 1666899534369 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620176062}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621241969}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899534226 | 0.826 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | pl4pUfSJJOzBsUbmLz2b | {"NO": 119.5475113122172, "YES": 83.64875094625285} | 0.7759999999999999 | prop-g-sf-nov-2022-affordable-homes | 20 | Prop G, SF Nov 2022, Student Success Fund – Grants to the San Francisco Unified School District, % Yes votes | 1668720183915 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7885065210676254 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620283240 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop G, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.45248868778280543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720183915 | 100 | barak | 1666899532882 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620283594}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621257259}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899532702 | 0.7759999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5563208959605218 | zBay8p6UW9K9MCLGz5g3 | {"NO": 242.90701945105252, "YES": 139.3198198974982} | 0.7120000000000001 | prop-h-sf-nov-2022-city-elections-i | 89.08505671442927 | Prop H, SF Nov 2022, City Elections in Even-Numbered Years, % Yes votes | 1668720001501 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.839165638582414 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620392361 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop H, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9053077949585959, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720001501 | 180 | barak | 1668306852844 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620392664}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621145971}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1668306852704 | 0.7120000000000001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47379036758796034 | 8d1AsarQsFeTnbSXSi7I | {"NO": 93.19807335859797, "YES": 156.61561761345732} | 0.35 | prop-i-sf-nov-2022-vehicles-on-jfk | 57.75870501647706 | Prop I, SF Nov 2022, Vehicles on JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park and the Great Highway, % Yes votes | 1668720225120 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4770121464917745 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620475736 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop I, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6256773700657328, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720225120 | 120 | barak | 1667947349611 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620476068}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621158298}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1667947349430 | 1660662458206 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5051996851425166 | 5IKiWMLrxghoeMIU3lcq | {"NO": 152.73823673188267, "YES": 94.69759056928447} | 0.629 | prop-j-sf-nov-2022-recreational-use | 125.74695275353251 | Prop J, SF Nov 2022, Recreational Use of JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park, % Yes votes | 1668719772880 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.453556801625378 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620599168 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop J, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5453806284797087, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719772880 | 120 | barak | 1668703205470 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620599532}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621190646}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1668703205331 | 0.629 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | OlqA6qA8MfspLr8sj76Z | {"NO": 84.5592918778687, "YES": 118.26021455386925} | 0.41691893134711105 | prop-k-sf-nov-2022-gross-receipts-t | 40.1700526562263 | Prop K, SF Nov 2022, Gross Receipts Taxes for Guaranteed Income Programs, Small Business Assistance, and Homeless Services, % Yes votes | 1663184734745 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7866368015469587 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1660620671504 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop K, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663184734745 | 100 | barak | 1663184731656 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620671863}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621207298}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1660885356011 | 1663184725857 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6649965544984038 | jfIwnlInbSJwyO1MVryV | {"NO": 172.55926099030998, "YES": 153.89375503025556} | 0.7171 | prop-l-sf-nov-2022-sales-tax-for-tr | 58.367352830372084 | Prop L, SF Nov 2022, Sales Tax for Transportation Projects, % Yes votes | 1668720753561 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.181867534971965 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620765136 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop L, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3983428344126339, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720753561 | 160 | barak | 1668325695256 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620765467}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621220166}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.67 | 1668325694950 | 0.7171 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5155866421321762 | rMKATjrZdtv6b2H32bHM | {"NO": 123.92280351965465, "YES": 115.8812429396274} | 0.5429999999999999 | prop-m-sf-nov-2022-tax-on-keeping-r | 66 | Prop M, SF Nov 2022, Tax on Keeping Residential Units Vacant, % Yes votes | 1668720159399 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.431876255559004 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620871484 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop M, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.49749166465863837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720159399 | 120 | barak | 1668032355699 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620871798}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621233726}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1668032355498 | 0.5429999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5303243237475318 | y3Cpxiuy0MAvktFh9Bkz | {"NO": 148.23301912061604, "YES": 131.90313648712768} | 0.747 | prop-n-sf-nov-2022-golden-gate-park | 54.05611854255013 | Prop N, SF Nov 2022, Golden Gate Park Underground Parking Facility; Golden Gate Park Concourse Authority, % Yes votes | 1668719794908 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1735671023360212 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660620929643 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop N, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.45248868778280543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668719794908 | 140 | barak | 1666899462480 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660620929973}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621249891}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1666899462330 | 0.747 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.514125213419262 | qlNxzIhC0saBnaOe7n0s | {"NO": 138.42390051365422, "YES": 104.44241370724852} | 0.365 | prop-o-sf-nov-2022-additional-parce | 21 | Prop O, SF Nov 2022, Additional Parcel Tax for City College, % Yes votes | 1668720140172 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.439934826064258 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660621006468 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Prop O, in San Francisco, CA's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://sfelections.sfgov.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.506494731539323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720140172 | 120 | barak | 1665690369324 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1660621006836}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660621266076}, {"n... | ["san-francisco", "politics-default", "us-politics", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1665690369131 | 0.365 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5337781835246885 | lZzHGJceWjbdRXY3Fw5J | {"NO": 169.19136877222152, "YES": 87.02800625998367} | 0.665 | prop-1-ca-nov-2022-reproductive-fre | 163.85168883795959 | Prop 1, CA Nov 2022, Reproductive Freedom, % Yes votes | 1668720893691 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5109202764001353 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622001353 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 1, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.786039664670877, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720893691 | 120 | barak | 1668795003417 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622001718}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097930}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1668000001072 | 1668794999359 | 0.665 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4646319917014657 | KYGvRy5gf7ZhoBBqtHR8 | {"NO": 85.81090660786987, "YES": 171.95049750012373} | 0.322 | prop-26-ca-nov-2022-legalize-sports | 52 | Prop 26, CA Nov 2022, Legalize Sports Betting on American Indian Property, % Yes votes | 1668720880954 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5190441868613873 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622104680 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 26, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.049502499876243757, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720880954 | 120 | barak | 1667999533599 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622105341}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097932}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1667999502214 | 1667999531776 | 0.322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4365913161996408 | dfaptX9BLn0j86rNnkLA | {"NO": 65.01614412092151, "YES": 241.43395623342892} | 0.17300000000000001 | prop-27-ca-nov-2022-legalize-online | 165.70097620162 | Prop 27, CA Nov 2022, Legalize Online Sports Betting, % Yes votes | 1668720866095 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.748472847874061 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622242031 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 27, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.506253940789154, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720866095 | 120 | barak | 1668000504356 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622242404}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097931}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1668000504253 | 1667999087846 | 0.17300000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5201122518719109 | HDxLIXn9eWooCStMmVGN | {"NO": 147.149914975129, "YES": 98.64731959872756} | 0.637 | prop-28-ca-nov-2022-arts-and-music | 35 | Prop 28, CA Nov 2022, Arts and Music Education Funding, % Yes votes | 1668720851428 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4556158708574283 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622324674 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 28, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0773053991562707, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720851428 | 120 | barak | 1667999896658 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622325036}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097932}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1667999893671 | 1667999894837 | 0.637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43747387862968107 | uFjgl8Tj7v2GxrO5mbVL | {"NO": 106.82653916247692, "YES": 189.56111881006134} | 0.31 | prop-29-ca-nov-2022-dialysis-clinic | 128.1336439987607 | Prop 29, CA Nov 2022, Dialysis Clinics, % Yes votes | 1668720812153 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2633316268552965 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622385192 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 29, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2356324363715268, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720812153 | 140 | barak | 1667999597056 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622385529}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097930}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1667999590673 | 1667999595328 | 0.31 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4799033869749564 | AyeOnl4xJFy3AZuE8gB0 | {"NO": 145.03048072256053, "YES": 177.39259057984998} | 0.419 | prop-30-ca-nov-2022-personal-income | 65.65296560253509 | Prop 30, CA Nov 2022, Personal Income Tax Increase, % Yes votes | 1668720799645 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9523879420548076 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622479477 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 30, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.049502499876243757, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720799645 | 160 | barak | 1667999247426 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097932}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622479863}, {... | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot", "california"] | 0.5 | 1667999244580 | 1667999245667 | 0.419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5213821999271712 | eshpP8N4giPShKgKapdc | {"NO": 149.07291231622554, "YES": 97.47558973102164} | 0.634 | prop-31-ca-nov-2022-flavored-tobacc | 51 | Prop 31, CA Nov 2022, Flavored Tobacco Ban, % Yes votes | 1668720774279 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.459626070707916 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660622591659 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage voting Yes for Proposition 31, in California's 2022 November general election, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9239515176791686, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668720774279 | 120 | barak | 1667999960178 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1660622592035}, {"name": "SF 2022 Ballot", "slug": "sf-2022-ballot", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "VkWZyS5yxs8XWUJrX9eq", "createdTime": 1661747097930}] | ["politics-default", "sf-2022-ballot"] | 0.5 | 1667999958221 | 1667999959587 | 0.634 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19345356897427943 | kEVSduKSC0fnpwRYfKfu | {"NO": 920.4552355598216, "YES": 1242.1698253270986} | 0.150911409332247 | will-another-millennium-problem-be | 801.2096705724211 | Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025? | 1767236340000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.749130249652445 | False | basic | public | 1660624168057 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if before the end of 2025, there is a credible claim that another Millennium Problem was solved. Although I do not plan to wait for Clay Mathematics Institute to give the award. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5904863088929146, "platformFee": 0.5609147123026312, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MP | 1714548040918 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 32 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1662611151493}, {"name": "Millenium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime":... | ["mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems"] | 0.5 | 1714548037556 | 1673220380070 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5717760799521948 | YLleR6LuZUTBamGKPEL1 | {"NO": 856.6869231837042, "YES": 1098.450783322888} | 0.5101280287198335 | will-artificial-intelligence-be-par | 4638.024835519304 | Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem? | 1767236340000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.416831357243776 | False | basic | public | 1660624447945 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a Millennium Problem is solved, will it contain artificial intelligence (any sort of black box function that helped a mathematician or conducted the solution entirely). Some sort of brute force algorithm obviously doesn't count. ", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.525821681249374, "platformFee": 1.5700923171094119, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MP | 1717166017594 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 2 | 60 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1660929317072}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 166... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "mathematics", "millenium-prize-problems", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1717166014215 | 1673060834555 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07494523050807357 | BcMj83K6Y7549YJU0F42 | {"NO": 922.7833561883461, "YES": 1337.5695681074826} | 0.0529346301541964 | will-flatback-posture-be-confirmed | 386.75408938775274 | Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?
| 1893473940000 | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.487072971494639 | False | basic | public | 1660624455272 | Enopoletus Harding | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I definitely think so. Consider Indonesia. These Malays (shortest and thinnest people in the world) are doing everything they can in the fight against flatback posture (they smoke, drink coffee, eat very spicy food -see the Blade Runner film for a ... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.638464763061152, "platformFee": 0.03787774170417053, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EnopoletusHarding | 1715871075025 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 67 | 17 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1660624455749}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1715871064978 | 1701400851777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Yz7fGxOZ67axq67eC8w7 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.51 | test-64a5872da575 | 0 | test | 1660626880972 | oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | MKT | public | 1660626865680 | barak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1660626880972 | 100 | barak | 1660626865680 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | xfutyxQh6B2gSTvVRTNO | {"NO": 70.18100265975373, "YES": 142.4887023698031} | 1 | will-jill-biden-be-reported-to-have | 216.66839002547417 | Will Jill Biden be reported to have had a Covid-19 rebound? | 1661455090092 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2849200801299 | True | play | YES | public | 1660658150239 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jill Biden has tested positive for Covid-19 and is being treated with Paxlovid.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to Yes if and only if Jill Biden is reported within the next 30 da... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.118984360685051, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661455090092 | 100 | ZviMowshowitz | 1710206848063 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.5 | 1661419277556 | 1662055066335 | 0.33 |
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