CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will we be able to teach any of our five pets (3 cats & 2 dogs) to "talk" to us using programmed buttons by the end of 2022?

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Will Puzzles for Progress still be biweekly in 2023?

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2.1657644478750404

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YES

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Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year?

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Predictor 🔥

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will-a-current-or-former-world-lead

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Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2022?

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3.348577628595275

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NO

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1660877085242

Predictor 🔥

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Will SF Prop A win? (Retiree Supplemental Cost of Living Adjustment; Retirement Board Contract with Executive Director, Nov 2022)

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cpmm-1

0

2.8197633723373117

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YES

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will-sf-prop-b-win-public-works-dep

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Will SF Prop B win? (Public Works Department and Commission, Sanitation and Streets Department and Commission, Nov 2022)

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3.1775223163162987

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1660883304830

barak

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will-sf-prop-c-win-homelessness-ove

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Will SF Prop C win? (Homelessness Oversight Commission, Nov 2022)

1668032257233

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cpmm-1

0

2.3416207253052423

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YES

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1660883382762

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will-sf-prop-d-win-affordable-homes

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Will SF Prop D win? (Affordable Homes Now, Nov 2022)

1668689801734

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cpmm-1

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2.8611564312949813

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NO

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1660883384187

barak

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will-sf-prop-e-win-affordable-housi

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Will SF Prop E win? (Affordable Housing Production Act, Nov 2022)

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2.0210850462682695

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1660883385034

barak

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will-sf-prop-f-win-library-preserva

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Will SF Prop F win? (Library Preservation Fund, Nov 2022)

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cpmm-1

0

2.774950733745031

True

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YES

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will-sf-prop-g-win-student-success

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Will SF Prop G win? (Student Success Fund, Nov 2022)

1668007333114

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cpmm-1

0

2.4006591442471303

True

play

YES

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1660883387057

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barak

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will-sf-prop-h-win-city-elections-i

524.3725771075202

Will SF Prop H win? (City Elections in Even-Numbered Years, Nov 2022)

1668007225999

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cpmm-1

0

2.0154172098189376

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play

YES

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1660883387944

barak

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1668007225999

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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will-sf-prop-j-win-recreational-use

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Will SF Prop J win? (Recreational Use of JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park, Nov 2022)

1668032301926

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cpmm-1

0

1.1763074769614934

True

play

YES

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1660883388972

barak

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1668032301926

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barak

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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0

16

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0

will-sf-prop-i-win-vehicles-on-jfk

1486.8522361033663

Will SF Prop I win? (Vehicles on JFK Drive in Golden Gate Park and the Great Highway, Nov 2022)

1668032289725

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cpmm-1

0

2.2164732024764984

True

play

NO

public

1660883459971

barak

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1668032289725

220

barak

1667983794179

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

10

0

11

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0.2626321133218604

will-sf-prop-k-win-gross-receipts-t

70

Will SF Prop K win? (Gross Receipts Taxes for Guaranteed Income Programs, Small Business Assistance, and Homeless Services, Nov 2022)

1664035826796

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cpmm-1

0

2.904349489767335

True

play

CANCEL

public

1660883530471

barak

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1664035826796

100

barak

1663817245119

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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will-sf-prop-l-win-sales-tax-for-tr

123.98432084260742

Will SF Prop L win? (Sales Tax for Transportation Projects, Nov 2022)

1668719528940

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

2.4512504016354475

True

play

YES

public

1660883531238

barak

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{"NO": 193.3447254274886, "YES": 77.68826105702175}

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will-sf-prop-m-win-tax-on-keeping-r

75.6622481897621

Will SF Prop M win? (Tax on Keeping Residential Units Vacant, Nov 2022)

1668719544926

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

2.5872069195008276

True

play

YES

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will-sf-prop-n-win-golden-gate-park

168.13190302982548

Will SF Prop N win? (Golden Gate Park Underground Parking Facility; Golden Gate Park Concourse Authority, Nov 2022)

1668007441134

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

2.631535722944405

True

play

YES

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barak

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will-sf-prop-o-win-additional-parce

463.60474329771614

Will SF Prop O win? (Additional Parcel Tax for City College, Nov 2022)

1668007448198

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

3.1710903160374295

True

play

NO

public

1660883630148

barak

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will-ca-prop-1-win-reproductive-fre

770.4026519774301

Will CA Prop 1 win? (Reproductive Freedom, Nov 2022)

1668007576978

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

4.570461980910007

True

play

YES

public

1660883644459

barak

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1668007576978

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barak

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{"NO": 63.8069326496676, "YES": 388.8961464370466}

0

will-ca-prop-26-win-legalize-sports

480.8339476879287

Will CA Prop 26 win? (Legalize Sports Betting on American Indian Property, Nov 2022)

1668007369135

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

3.1137200241954885

True

play

NO

public

1660884686651

barak

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barak

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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0

9

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{"NO": 113.35025946047509, "YES": 687.0673755044428}

0

will-ca-prop-27-win-legalize-online

940.5291608854225

Will CA Prop 27 win? (Legalize Online Sports Betting, Nov 2022)

1668007477974

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

1.7636106847279232

True

play

NO

public

1660884815608

barak

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barak

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0

27

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{"NO": 564.2173926406222, "YES": 65.07651274369458}

1

will-ca-prop-28-win-arts-and-music

618.4253620777937

Will CA Prop 28 win? (Arts and Music Education Funding, Nov 2022)

1668007591999

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

3.1302653408957646

True

play

YES

public

1660884846733

barak

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1668007591999

160

barak

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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{"NO": 62.41291781014471, "YES": 403.3552194765883}

0

will-ca-prop-29-win-dialysis-clinic

295.1383647258791

Will CA Prop 29 win? (Dialysis Clinics, Nov 2022)

1668007501070

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

3.1693017683078972

True

play

NO

public

1660884857284

barak

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1668007501070

140

barak

1667999822100

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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0

8

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{"NO": 130.64764316990562, "YES": 422.9132208776809}

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will-ca-prop-30-win-personal-income

619.700222436037

Will CA Prop 30 win? (Personal Income Tax Increase, Nov 2022)

1668007537915

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

1.7786409901092763

True

play

NO

public

1660884866080

barak

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{"creatorFee": 1.2856151088419367, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1668007537915

220

barak

1668012579961

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

17

0

16

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will-ca-prop-31-win-flavored-tobacc

792.8446911220726

Will CA Prop 31 win? (Flavored Tobacco Ban, Nov 2022)

1668007519683

oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2

cpmm-1

0

4.296506707526902

True

play

YES

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1660884873039

barak

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1668007519683

140

barak

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https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba

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0

12

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0.12193229408954843

will-jose-luis-ricon-live-for-over

1999.8429023824128

Will Jose Luis Ricon live for over 200 years?

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cpmm-1

0

9.841040975820693

False

basic

public

1660886622110

Stochastic Cockatoo

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Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 50bps in September?

1663612140000

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2.7001363358539567

True

play

NO

public

1660906425130

Akhil Wable

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1663807584227

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akhil

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https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

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by-the-end-of-2023-will-iran-succes

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By the end of 2023 will Iran successfully enrich enough Uranium to assemble a nuclear warhead?

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cpmm-1

0.1672258992645945

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True

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NO

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Brian T. Edwards

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will-xi-jinping-visit-putin-in-russ

6866.335848244995

Will Xi Jinping visit Putin in Russia before the end of 2022?

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4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

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1.083549417801656

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NO

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1660946321792

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping visits Vladimir Putin in Russia before the end of the year. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-henrilemoine-finish-first-plac

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Will @HenriLemoine finish first place in the Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament?

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IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2

cpmm-1

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Bionic

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will-anyone-post-an-app-stopping-th

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Will anyone post an app stopping the use of vertical finger movements on smartphones by the end of the year?

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Enopoletus Harding

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will-trump-and-his-associates-be-ch

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Will Trump and his associates be charged under Georgia's RICO statute for criminal conspiracy related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state?

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1660954450324

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Fani Willis brings RICO charges against Trump and at least two of his associates. Resolves NO if no changes are filed, or if charges filed do not include any under the RICO statute. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will the 2022 Alaska House Election result in a Condorcet failure?

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Will I test positive for Covid in 2022?

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N.C. Young

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Will the next revised estimate of real US GDP growth for Q2 2022 be negative? (2nd estimate)

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Jack

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will-bitcoin-be-20000-at-the-end-of

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Will Bitcoin be <= $20,000 at the end of Sunday August 21?

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cpmm-1

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3.9193921572416284

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NO

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1660959746080

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if price of Bitcoin is less than our equal to $20,000 at midnight on Sunday august 21. Resolves No if greater than $20,000. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 21, 4:15pm: ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-manifold-support-generic-inter

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Will Manifold support generic, interpersonal loans by the end of the year?

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Olivia's Market Manager Bot

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What critic score will "The Marvels" have on Rotten Tomatoes one week after its US release?

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N.C. Young

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will-i-clear-mt-faraway-in-pokemon

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Will I clear Mt. Faraway in Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX this year?

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1.7871070762307224

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1660964723742

Evelyn

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athenaciara

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will-xi-jinping-take-a-photo-with-t

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Will Xi Jinping take a photo with the Saudi King while they touch the glowing orb?

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2.6610166716120127

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1660973230324

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping is extended the honor granted to Trump as seen in the picture below. I do not believe Joe Biden was so lucky as to get this photo op. Resolves NO if no evidence such a picture was taken during Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia i...

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did-the-us-officially-enter-a-reces

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Did the US officially enter a recession in 2022? (Announcement by NBER)

1704095940000

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1660979529309

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2022 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred anytime...

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will-xi-jinping-meet-with-volodymyr

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Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2022?

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1660979642256

Brian T. Edwards

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Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

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