CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

PISpA7vcuUtOYFLqotNk

where-will-the-first-extraterrestri

269.19665697910585

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

4133933940000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1661373228549

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 25, 9:57am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Where will the first extraterrestrial life be found?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?", "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0675958939046276, "platformFee": 0.0675958939046276, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1716047792560

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6e0e7548ac65", "prob": 0.13476068729602844, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.941722336734177, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 70.25200378829311, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PISpA7vcuUtOYFLqotNk", "createdTime": 1661373229093, "probChanges": {"day": 6.93889390390...

https://firebasestorage.…97e-0346a8853975

11

[{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373229018}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1661374578798}]

["aliens", "science-default"]

1716047789269

1689046801738

True

0.2225925962335656

6NHvB6gwNESFg0MlKJnU

{"NO": 176.33295821495668, "YES": 618.3132302176012}

0

will-sam-trabucco-return-to-the-cry

645.7354483207481

Will Sam Trabucco return to the Crypto industry, either by joining another company or starting his own company within the next year?

1692935940000

wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2

cpmm-1

0

2.21101651537537

True

play

NO

public

1661376072221

Ryan P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is in reference to Sam Trabucco stepping down as Alameda Research co-CEO ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/24/co-ceo-of-crypto-trading-firm-alameda-research-sam-trabucco-steps-down/", "type": "text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1694260217244

260

REP

1692935095547

0

https://firebasestorage.…839-b9d5e577a3c1

18

0

4

12

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1661376072564}]

["crypto-speculation"]

0.5

1692935095375

1685458375805

0.08

0.5398544548267633

ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ

{"NO": 3160.54806056245, "YES": 5335.953316484186}

0.41000000000000003

will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre

185415.8280320797

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

1733032740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0.04510624928884092

0.7346469114666978

False

basic

public

1661381842885

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0.02717396893504931, "week": -0.028067565675362616, "month": -0.10121561139279378}

0

{"creatorFee": 599.3639958111797, "platformFee": 231.69536564697134, "liquidityFee": 0}

1184.9529768827274

4205

SG

1720244062108

1.4

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

14

807

8

26

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661381843318}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "cre...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.17910909468304137

0.5

1720244059005

1715782851404

0.490361301333209

IRSUUxp0OA8oMuQjnflG

{"NO": 1599.5978191626486, "YES": 2132.0947792548245}

0.41923555518373706

will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre-4d8ef5e74437

8580.965109527762

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version)

1733032740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0.16708810926240678

7.216765578203418

False

basic

public

1661381975345

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the opinion of populist right-wing news sources like Breitbart, Revolver, ZeroHedge, etc. in case of a disputed result.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004714777056025854}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.616961198775508, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1845

SG

1718715603861

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

52

0

18

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661381975698}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "cre...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.17025311640950788

0.5

1718715600800

1701542854425

0.15983976441464007

FLpVZmIswVyo0tlFcS1S

{"NO": 29.115903978068104, "YES": 4349.190433979603}

0

will-henry-kissinger-outlive-jimmy

22392.513736614423

Will Henry Kissinger outlive Jimmy Carter?

1701331098050

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

9.757637264123793e-16

7.9456676039246945

True

play

NO

public

1661384046356

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701331098050

855

StochasticParrot

1701319768437

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

54

0

14

[{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1679362716350}]

["jimmy-carter"]

0.12209745783869468

0.5

1701319768095

1701315624409

0

0.4920165094545586

fhFSX4Id1RFVv8tVvIPT

{"NO": 331.86282623048726, "YES": 57.27083965754623}

0.8487709061590166

will-james-d-watson-outlive-noam-ch

1853.9890283119223

Will James D. Watson outlive Noam Chomsky?

2009170740000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1661388656712

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.34341943080378956}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.600661709686069, "platformFee": 0.1731498570737105, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

StochasticParrot

1718742400491

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

14

0

6

0.5

1718742397439

1718739063341

0.010096126760194382

acwyJwh609DrYVocW3io

{"NO": 151.02872542010905, "YES": 76.73902034286314}

0.019677683319193028

how-long-will-the-first-hacky-sack

124.30412815831686

How long will the first hacky sack of the school year last? (In days)

1661399146637

361tbQNMwqR0a9pNoo0IcvSXTvv1

cpmm-1

0

10.044473673081463

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661390372343

Anna Johnston

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 24, 6:20pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "How long will the first hacky sack of the school year last?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → How long will the first hacky sack of the school year la...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661399146637

150

AnnaJohnston

1661399093112

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucoiU9uiz52a0FeucVW_--A-MbZO3XKDvzTmMG2iHA=s96-c

4

0

4

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "361tbQNMwqR0a9pNoo0IcvSXTvv1", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1661390372740}]

["proofniks"]

0.01

1661399092891

0.4999999999999997

DhtxOZW47TTDBQ4bgCwG

{"NO": 339.19136877222167, "YES": 29.481882266630848}

1

emotional-insurance-will-orlando-ci

3431.849536030285

[Emotional Insurance] Will Orlando City SC win the US Open Cup Final against lower division side Sacramento Republic FC?

1662584340000

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.1122322433251104

True

play

YES

public

1661393987521

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll be going to the game supporting Orlando City. I'll be betting against Orlando so that if we lose it won't hurt so bad. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Orlando City is in the first division of US socc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662602850049

100

Charlie

1662606239458

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

12

0

1

12

[{"name": "US Soccer", "slug": "us-soccer", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "zB7SeMTUK4R0jMRihlDP", "createdTime": 1661393988076}]

["us-soccer"]

0.5

1662581067220

1662606237211

0.9200324889761966

0.45067191773716603

3IN3ug2mhJgWTy005cke

{"NO": 76.19514869490166, "YES": 197.95130420052197}

0.23999999999999988

will-a-spacecraft-that-plans-to-att

113.22268878172994

Will a spacecraft that plans to attempt a soft landing on Mercury launch by the end of 2030?

1922417940000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1661394697443

DAL59

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been several proposed Mercury missions with landers, but all have been canceled or had the lander component removed. There is a Russian Mercury-P lander supposedly in the concept phase, but it has been vaporware for many years.", "type"...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

DAL59

1670882243953

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

7

0

55

8

[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104989578}]

["futurism"]

0.5

1670882240852

0.5

4wmvcuXpmh50sbVxKNIG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

who-will-be-world-cup-2022-top-scor

0

Who will be World Cup 2022 top scorer?

1661394900379

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661394852197

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661394900379

100

FranklinBaldo

1661394852197

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

0

1

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1661394852558}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

2hLkigF9ByR03LGNt0dO

who-will-be-world-cup-2022-top-scor-7c8ec62bcac9

98064.5155084185

Who will be World Cup 2022 top scorer?

1671389143055

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.616648868772639

True

play

3d4445be8fb5

public

1661394963609

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671389143055

4299.99999999999

FranklinBaldo

1671388672408

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

0

43

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "30405c659b46", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.6453935658079035e-05, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.4644929026451323, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2hLkigF9ByR03LGNt0dO", "createdTime": 1661394964124, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month"...

43

[{"name": "Insight Prediction", "slug": "insight-prediction", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "LczPUXOVtueL35nfRuxx", "createdTime": 1668716909212}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTi...

["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "insight-prediction", "2022-world-cup-final"]

1671388671845

1671378450259

{"3d4445be8fb5": 100}

True

0.5000000000000002

WnaxgteBIQ5T7PaHykYX

{"NO": 10.449320794148335, "YES": 957}

0

will-ape-and-amc-converge-in-price

942.7817736003269

Will $APE and $AMC converge in price (within 10 cents, inclusive) by market close on August 25th?

1661454000000

ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1

cpmm-1

0

4.914812788598866

True

play

NO

public

1661395407706

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context: $APE is the newly issued set of preferred shares by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. APE technically stands for AMC Preferred Equity units, and they are preferred shares which confer the exact same voting rights and dividend payouts as...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661457705279

100

Treldman

1661450475425

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1661395408104}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1661450475242

1661396285222

0.01080089733855085

0.43504705748920525

zk1WeQhvO9IbciHmTZYh

{"NO": 926.8197003526988, "YES": 1081.9678970842049}

0.3974585094545619

will-first-contact-with-extraterres

551.9118263646288

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

4133933940000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0.11134180228582138

9.767354415224391

False

basic

public

1661396820323

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Earthlings include humans, any other species that evolved on Earth, and Earth-originating AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content"...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.040605011385164896, "platformFee": 0.040605011385164896, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1716232734913

2.4

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

1

18

0

https://firebasestorage.…f86-ef65e6db6313

10

[{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661396820722}]

["aliens"]

0.11691066640656171

0.5

1716232731609

1695457022027

0.2499999999999998

Gzi4faATr1rkeYSCiZVb

{"NO": 81.00690996702647, "YES": 188.1194937827676}

0

how-long-will-the-first-hacky-sack-cf20c8d7faa8

232.0460110898088

How long will the first hacky sack of the school year last? (In days)

1661443515132

361tbQNMwqR0a9pNoo0IcvSXTvv1

cpmm-1

0

3.7844002407362254

True

play

MKT

public

1661399239317

Anna Johnston

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How long in school days (days at school) will it take the current (first) hacky sack to land on a light or the beam, or simply disintegrate? ", "type": "text"}]}]}

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661443515132

100

AnnaJohnston

1661443749926

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucoiU9uiz52a0FeucVW_--A-MbZO3XKDvzTmMG2iHA=s96-c

6

0

6

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "361tbQNMwqR0a9pNoo0IcvSXTvv1", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1661399239687}]

["proofniks"]

0.25

1661435161520

1661443748057

0

0.6810980362704847

Gr74U251ddAkhGBlHbGs

{"NO": 366.34608146535686, "YES": 224.92072815333796}

0

will-i-still-be-using-manifold-in-e

872.180192215618

Will I still be using Manifold in early december?

1669935540000

Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1

cpmm-1

0

1.5077902928583289

True

play

NO

public

1661401931698

^,^ Épi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am noticing my interest for Manifold waning, as discussed in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-judge-betting-streaks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.market...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672779882988

280

epiphanie_gedeon

1672857706793

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c

37

0

7

35

0.5

1669934961514

1672857702800

0.78

0.35000000000000003

WCGX1L58UJXxyzl6wOU6

{"NO": 297.86799825166725, "YES": 304}

0.34537845672118855

what-was-the-median-length-of-first

4

What was the median length (in years) of first marriages that ended in death or divorce in 2010 in the United States?

1672559940000

YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2

cpmm-1

0

1.264575470603827

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661410641228

Rachel Shu

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you google \"average marriage length in America\" you get an oft-repeated, poorly-sourced factoid that it is 8.2 years. It is definitely not. More careful secondary sources cite 8.0 years as the median length of a first marriage which ends in di...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675189884702

300

noumena

1675189876553

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg=s96-c

1

0

7

4

[{"name": "Sociology", "slug": "sociology", "userId": "YijY3niL1FezWqnWcsQSFyoqwfy2", "groupId": "iRdbpPisROiQsbEQG6xh", "createdTime": 1661410641604}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1691182255209}]

["sociology", "sex-and-love"]

0.35

1661681753922

1675189874804

False

0.5196708976901923

uRIUQowyvb1oBzZKHq9W

{"NO": 159.00974648816427, "YES": 160.3309280038566}

0.5176051549398719

will-wilbur-soot-stream-in-the-firs

83.05947969985776

Will Wilbur Soot stream in the first 2 weeks of DSMP Season 2

1695594044474

v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2

cpmm-1

0

1.9020658637251124

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661422759686

Emma

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once Season 2 of DSMP (whatever that turns out to be) officially starts (and at least some others have streamed from it) will Wibur Soot stream from the server (not neccesarily using the same characters as in the pervious season) within the first 2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1695594044474

160

EmmaCasey

1684679904001

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnNiLMID0RouoQZNtB8eICvHmGokGFeOAL3SBjD=s96-c

7

0

2

5

[{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1661422760069}, {"name": "Dream SMP", "slug": "dream-smp", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "t2x8svt4iGMoPdQpYKF2", "createdTime": 1668322091560}, {"name": "Ancient Markets",...

["mcyt", "dream-smp", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1684679903891

0.52

0.4706149852428423

KomsSxX0Yjg5q3HywpXy

{"NO": 123.00566516724842, "YES": 160.45167378449935}

0.4052979492230733

will-tommyinnit-stream-in-the-first

147.242714423625

Will TommyInnit stream in the first 2 weeks of DSMP Season 2

1695594070709

v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2

cpmm-1

0

2.1793028587522447

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661422871652

Emma

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once Season 2 of DSMP (whatever that turns out to be) officially starts (and at least some others have streamed from it) will TommyInnit stream from the server (not neccesarily using the same characters as in the pervious season) within the first 2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1695594070709

140

EmmaCasey

1683950135059

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnNiLMID0RouoQZNtB8eICvHmGokGFeOAL3SBjD=s96-c

1

8

0

2

7

[{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1661422871985}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736917842}]

["mcyt", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1683775679298

1683950133043

0.41

0.6055576280843428

n4wWQVDA9rBbGSjFM2dx

{"NO": 224.3955715549543, "YES": 148.78465742769353}

0.698378249991642

will-foolish-stream-in-the-first-2

80

Will Foolish stream in the first 2 weeks of DSMP Season 2

1695594076598

v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2

cpmm-1

0

1.9119456711119955

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661423145720

Emma

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once Season 2 of DSMP (whatever that turns out to be) officially starts (and at least some others have streamed from it) will Foolish stream from the server (not neccesarily using the same characters as in the pervious season) within the first 2 we...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1695594076598

180

EmmaCasey

1683715619903

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnNiLMID0RouoQZNtB8eICvHmGokGFeOAL3SBjD=s96-c

8

0

2

6

[{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1661423146176}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736918341}]

["mcyt", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1683715619711

0.7

0.5

0aOuqwElzkpusxEUg1zr

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

is-this-market-free

0

Is this market free?

1661428560883

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661428532240

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661428560883

100

ian

1661428532240

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

1

0.5

KDgny1QIQ0Mx4T65wqPE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

1

will-this-market-be-free-v2

0

Will this market be free? v2

1661428766129

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

YES

public

1661428740733

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661428766129

100

ian

1661428740733

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

0

1

0.5

0.4999999999999993

NiVNBgH50BLkrSTzLYFn

{"NO": 716.6724116512654, "YES": 13.953376518232833}

1

planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by-2d10ccd654f1

1691.9963050261754

[Planecrash] Will the story resume by Aug 26?

1661561513128

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-1

0

4.461374128749455

True

play

YES

public

1661430023993

Multicore

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "new", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " new date given in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1843665#reply-1843665", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661561513128

100

Multicore

1661560152204

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

9

0

9

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1661430047343}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1661560148741

1661558922296

0.9809021571039923

0.5000000000000001

NPcxGFzxqcl756ZtjnWA

{"NO": 563.9386985224771, "YES": 17.732423801026698}

1

will-this-market-be-above-50-at-clo

762

Will this market be above 50% at close this Friday?

1661544000000

ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1

cpmm-1

0

4.1125278128171585

True

play

YES

public

1661431525592

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market CLOSES at 4pm ET on Friday August 26th. It will resolve YES if the value of the market is greater than 50% as displayed by Manifold, and resolve NO if otherwise (value of the market is displayed as 50% or less).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661544025390

100

Treldman

1661543999605

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9

10

0

9

0.5

1661543999408

0.49466533519451206

0.2294469910264553

X1gMVLo9dS1AwZotY3kn

{"NO": 217.01720706693948, "YES": 2242.121715535795}

0

will-there-be-least-an-hour-of-powe

5223.06401264342

Will there be least an hour of power loss affecting at least one million people at once in the UK before April 2023?

1680303540000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

1.7083355715245152

True

play

NO

public

1661433714598

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There must be a single hour in which a million people concurrently lose power for the full hour.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681042139575

420

NathanpmYoung

1681042200949

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

40

0

2

31

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1661433715006}]

["uk-politics"]

0.5

1680302255538

1681042196773

0.03

0.5000000000000072

F6DoJ6E2CUmbWxEAGuBk

{"NO": 1490.6351565227778, "YES": 6.70854967846542}

1

will-this-market-get-m1000-invested

1709.3648434772222

Will this market get >=M$1,000 invested in it in an hour?

1661440683160

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

5.423167019334682

True

play

YES

public

1661439169454

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by M$x bet above the graph", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661440683160

100

Ibozz91

1661440630537

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

4

0

4

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661439169934}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1661440630290

0.9961569501556435

0.3795716584342517

fJGpkCWumpD8uu3YBptb

{"NO": 47.595324743528664, "YES": 382.38022538020994}

0.001846617

what-percentage-of-the-vote-will-gr

297.61977461979006

What percentage of the vote will Gregory Guevara get at the Ottawa 2022 Mayoral Election?

1666583940000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

2.708332026185234

True

play

MKT

public

1661439468111

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ottawa_municipal_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ottawa_municipal_election", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hov...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667043449613

120

Ibozz91

1663278411423

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

4

0

2

4

[{"name": "Canadian Politics", "slug": "canadian-politics", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "XUjgI120xjTU5n382rWL", "createdTime": 1661439468522}]

["canadian-politics"]

0.5

1663278411250

0.001846617

0.5000000000000009

v1uOoSV7pH4GWQ9hL8FR

{"NO": 188.29377433825402, "YES": 53.108500454379524}

1

will-i-become-lgi-certified-by-the

1274.1459824508927

Will I become LGI certified by the end of 2022? (LGI = Lifeguarding Instructor)

1670809422526

yPCPXjepx7a8vPZquWdfMYrXNwo1

cpmm-1

0

2.969572922813503

True

play

YES

public

1661441944441

Enaz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves yes if I possess a current Red Cross LGI certification on New Years day, and no otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, you need to be 17 to take the cou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670809422526

100

enaz

1670785540204

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb8-9268c3d6a05e

10

0

9

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1661446538044}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1670785536842

0.78

iCvuMqmZlkYDBFoCS9Ko

whats-the-oldest-meme-passed-on-fro

149.66525813960567

What's the oldest meme passed on from parent to child?

1667686075427

iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.864126625135064

True

play

d75e45d7f28e

public

1661443243563

Mr Stone

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm looking for an idea that is passed on from parent to child, for the most generations in a row. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It cannot be something we need to do to survive, like eating...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667686075427

420

stone

1663961082949

0

https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f13f48b23528", "prob": 0.3216060627332091, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.698916602992036, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.44338470836065, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iCvuMqmZlkYDBFoCS9Ko", "createdTime": 1661443244192, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

6

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1661443244085}]

["culture-default"]

1663961082781

1661520722702

{"d75e45d7f28e": 100}

True

0.4930578524829266

nQchffan8rcgWGmcCORq

{"NO": 876.1367661775105, "YES": 1215.6586816593722}

0

will-the-2022-loan-forgiveness-hold

11954.100853038639

Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?

1678942740000

4ULThhX5krRSzTnDnl97sUwqP9q2

cpmm-1

0

0.3255658428899411

True

basic

NO

public

1661449099055

John Buridan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It must hold up as written and without major amendment of entitlement. Minor rule changes, such as being able to opt-out of receiving ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688170272254

1060

JohnBuridan

1678942711960

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxb5v_Qp-0nP0Vz0-lntj5iOLkv3mo7F-wfrxJK=s96-c

72

0

22

46

[{"name": "US Student loans", "slug": "us-student-loans", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "lq3LEJta9kjIawjll1Jl", "createdTime": 1661459443233}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661459664146}]

["us-student-loans", "us-politics"]

0.5

1678942710793

1678060580524

0.41

0.5862526687623382

2oixTQc9MRUud7wZ1tT5

{"NO": 908.3222273898522, "YES": 1054.6686740541816}

0.5496143521972203

will-any-of-the-four-main-character

1054.7352342878924

Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?

1735711140000

LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2

cpmm-1

0

9.723574147908181

False

basic

public

1661449849968

wavedash

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Death between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specif...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

wavedash

1710236929373

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c

2

34

0

1

6

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1661455183200}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 16614...

["entertainment", "culture-default", "ancient-markets", "apple-tv", "severance-e5057aea9671", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1710236925814

1700058875139

hj32owgloexQEcH2UjvH

who-will-be-the-best-goalkeeper-of

986.215904247162

Who will be the best goalkeeper of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1671385500000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7036939168244745

True

play

bbd7866421a3

public

1661453093786

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who will be awarded the Golden Glove Award at the end of the tournament?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671388159637

1060

egroj

1671326410196

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

0

19

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1e03855dcc11", "prob": 0.034373383534502484, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.45895836192241335, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.893185498507597, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hj32owgloexQEcH2UjvH", "createdTime": 1661453094293, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

18

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1661453094218}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16614532178...

["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]

1671326410071

1663327144862

{"bbd7866421a3": 100}

True

0.3152826745038253

r9EoTMMJdaGM5ExyLfQ1

{"NO": 24.72346306350073, "YES": 3515.9431027972905}

0

will-jair-bolsonaro-be-reelected-pr-218cfec9e2e1

5396.3761052660975

Will Jair Bolsonaro be reelected president of Brazil in the first round?

1664795460918

RXioe1gl5ffKwHGNwcUfoY3Sc8g2

cpmm-1

0

4.69345896745656

True

play

NO

public

1661453323855

Thiago Santos

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brazilian presidential elections can have 2 rounds. A candidate wins in the first round if he receives more votes than all the others combined.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Bolsonaro wins reelecti...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664795460918

140

ThiagoSantos

1664795451478

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucoAAha88B29KXRO9-edPbqF0weqYY3_0bZgBgZftg=s96-c

16

0

15

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "RXioe1gl5ffKwHGNwcUfoY3Sc8g2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1661453324512}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1664795451259

1661469099511

0.018338469594804657

0.4999999999999979

M8hjOQzs3tQeWN6T6TnM

{"NO": 863.2337733429929, "YES": 11.584347495202394}

1

will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-4ade81bd0cc1

810

Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $9 on August 26, 2022?

1661540400000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

4.749473100682957

True

play

YES

public

1661457587347

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661544864584

100

Predictor

1661537249426

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

9

0

1

9

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1661457587796}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1661537249049

0.9867579932110881

0.5000000000000006

UiD8aWrDXqLRMskTZ96H

{"NO": 139, "YES": 71.94244604316545}

1

will-the-spread-between-ape-and-amc

107.00000000000006

Will the spread between $APE and $AMC be smaller at market close Friday August 26, 2022?

1661540400000

ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1

cpmm-1

0

2.8265659694884775

True

play

YES

public

1661457917503

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context: $APE is the newly issued set of preferred shares by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. APE technically stands for AMC Preferred Equity units, and they are preferred shares which confer the exact same voting rights and dividend payouts as...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661544061603

100

Treldman

1661538873400

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9

3

0

1

4

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1661457917910}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1661538872177

0.5160861284334717

0.056092333782839725

dfE8BEKEhAb78DwktD9e

{"NO": 199.04656500993093, "YES": 216.3780091514424}

0

how-much-will-you-have-you-donate-t

263

How much will you have you donate to get into the Bryan Caplan vs Peter Singer Zoom debate?

1663041540000

125OsemhASdOdS7iVQwD5LOk9ph2

cpmm-1

0

7.65945942034635

True

play

MKT

public

1661460756743

Matt Brooks

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to the amount you have to donate to win a seat at the debate between Bryan Caplan and Peter Singer on 9/13", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "1000 open seats, $10 minimum, those giving ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663697208849

201.60621516739178

MattBrooks

1663697223325

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucoL6SZjjGdfQzYfYS-xKW6kXLzdzPh7eKQt8hhy=s96-c

4

0

1

4

0.05555555555555555

1663015721450

1663697220402

0

0.5076530712740106

Qa0vMhG4UfPaphADlu6z

{"NO": 129.61154066659432, "YES": 111.23126943737634}

1

will-the-tencent-tv-adaptation-of-t

61

Will I consider the Tencent TV adaptation of the Three Body Problem series to be better than the Netflix one?

1707195540000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

0

2.3843758073839876

True

play

YES

public

1661462817076

DAL59

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 25, 9:10pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the Tencent TV adaptation of the Three Body Problem series be better than the Netflix one?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will I consider the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711523721318

120

DAL59

1707195540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

7

0

11

8

0.5

1706513195230

1701629882108

0.55

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

0.5

P8TzTBLkouhFDD5qCdBc

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

poll-will-manifold-change-the-colou

0

[POLL] Should Manifold change the colours used in its free response polls to have higher contrast?

1661464721893

ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661463848169

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 25, 5:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "[POLL] Will Manifold change the colours used in its free response polls to have higher contrast?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → [POLL] Should Manif...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661464721893

100

Treldman

1661463848169

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9

0

1

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1661463848574}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

iWyQLmm4rtjBRz2DE5c0

{"NO": 195.66666666666666, "YES": 51.10732538330499}

1

tutbad-will-one-of-the-entad-lutes

139

[TUTBAD] Will one of the entad lutes be really useful?

1661886540000

PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2

cpmm-1

0

2.57359012341492

True

play

YES

public

1661468031065

horse

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of Chapter 131 of This Used to be About Dungeons, the Settlers have about 100 unidentified entad lutes they found in a megadungeon. This resolves \"yes\" if at least one of these lutes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661974307729

100

horse

1661979435747

0

https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "This Used To Be About Markets", "slug": "this-used-to-be-about-markets", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "RqpmlE3BYQqVyRiNfvMv", "createdTime": 1661468031591}]

["this-used-to-be-about-markets"]

0.5

1661883383997

1661979433810

0.7928982509106723

0.4999999999999996

djFKsRyVbs0IgrMIrxI2

{"NO": 60.80988369577734, "YES": 164.44695158485357}

0

will-kit-fox-announce-the-release-d

204.8473687021979

Will Kit Fox announce the release date for Dwarf Fortress at PAX West?

1662376384788

kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2

cpmm-1

0

2.8950462374338226

True

play

NO

public

1661469997818

Dan Sparkman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662376384788

100

DanSparkman

1662372387528

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c

11

0

10

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1661469998390}]

["gaming"]

0.5

1662372386173

1662303645803

0.2760291369283248

0.3721319021147938

sbCi3IEBjouQtnorFuSo

{"NO": 75.00152331130676, "YES": 4560.94673289805}

0

will-the-fda-recall-any-510k-approv

5282.620689513955

Will the FDA recall any 510k cleared medical device for adverse events caused by defective AI software by the end of 2023?

1704083208917

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.31062306682323

True

play

NO

public

1661470425537

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if by the end of 2023 the FDA recalls a previously cleared medical device for adverse events related to AI software. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 10, 9:56pm: ", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704083208917

380.69457618095686

BTE

1704083209842

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

29

0

11

[{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1661947249574}, {"name": "Medical Grade AI", "slug": "rsna-2022", "userId": "zRMxfUt51RcEIcZkuw6ySiNJYBE3", "groupId": "zKIoIMNi1hwtg3l5m5Mn", "createdTime": 1671090047755}, {"name": "...

["ai-safety", "rsna-2022", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "ai"]

0.5

1704083201984

1662128946893

0.01

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

0.4484281914875032

7vVOGNRGbXhBwubr8waH

{"NO": 96.93033296821073, "YES": 281.2124354887827}

0

will-i-end-up-buying-an-exercise-wh

382.19267888259344

Will I end up buying an exercise wheel for my puppy?

1672549140000

XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3

cpmm-1

0

1.445979608345017

True

play

NO

public

1661471415489

Rachael Ng

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When I researched dog species, I learned that smaller dogs require less time exercising due to their stature. I decided to adopt a Pomeranian, Yoshi, for this reason. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672982030597

160

RachaelNg

1672548102483

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgqO89c_sluW327SVvCvpTQNYWUtcjhF4dYLW8obuU=s96-c

12

0

2

13

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "XNvwtGDpEZhjUiwZOBUYhBRmxvE3", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1661471416053}]

["fun"]

0.5

1672548102299

1661600800574

0.22

0.02

xKPirDPr8iWAIj4SQCAA

{"NO": 105, "YES": 9.156391332099972}

0.18964598819173023

how-much-will-keen-raise-over-the-n

5

How much will Keen raise over the next decade?

1662168431402

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.2745245624136

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661475062728

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any buyout will also count at its estimated price. Pays out at MAX if >$1B raised. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mant...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662168431402

100

Gigacasting

1661475079213

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

0

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661475063233}]

["technology-default"]

0.02

1661475077702

Ed4S86vZ5OLiHUSI8HMV

where-will-andrej-karpathy-take-an

2195.6524477975972

Where will Andrej Karpathy take an offer?

1676134469858

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649187294032728

True

play

53960a8d58f3

public

1661475574140

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Next place of full-time employment. (guest lecturer, advisor, or you-tube streamer will not count)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“NEW THING” if co-founder or C-level at startup that has not...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676134478578

560

Gigacasting

1676134402989

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4cc89717bc6f", "prob": 0.00480684542161785, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.02672554260832101, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.533166707749491, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Ed4S86vZ5OLiHUSI8HMV", "createdTime": 1661475574690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

7

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661475574605}]

["technology-default"]

1676134402868

1676134393383

{"53960a8d58f3": 100}

True

vSQ0VJW9FvOHyP8mIAlc

when-will-the-next-major-ai-milesto

79.59416545397863

When will the next major AI milestone occur?

1662879569454

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.885712953651453

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661476564625

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quarter and year, eg “Q4 2022”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be on the level of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "parag...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662879569454

379.99999999999994

Gigacasting

1662879566849

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b1ced5e4562d", "prob": 0.38865090003281727, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.102720813362524, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.35167543484038, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vSQ0VJW9FvOHyP8mIAlc", "createdTime": 1661476565250, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

2

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661476565171}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908415}]

["technology-default", "ai"]

1661704170681

1662879564968

False

True

FDPz4iTSqoNWa7h3eNX5

what-will-be-the-next-ai-breakthrou

730.4073379042464

What will be the next AI breakthrough event?

1704088740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.691952274933547

True

play

MKT

public

1661476980745

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to largest three events (50%, 30%, 20%) by close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples of events and what text would match—", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705930632284

1039.9999999999998

Gigacasting

1705930632782

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

20

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "790f71a317d2", "prob": 0.025551518092143254, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.26285754921867427, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.024497913214667, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FDPz4iTSqoNWa7h3eNX5", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16...

5

9

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661476981263}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908161}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-r...

["technology-default", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

1698690967297

1705930620816

False

{"291243513ecb": 20, "7f6f35a6bd29": 30, "c4e4e8980e7e": 50}

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.8179861394577774

jOAvOdyU50eBJtzrPAB2

{"NO": 3769.8640920739263, "YES": 199.51619826994568}

1

will-proof-school-host-an-official

17800.711653436167

Will Proof School host an official dance this school year?

1681435883888

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

2.229231993289443

True

play

YES

public

1661477259190

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Proof School hosted a (~high-school) dance last school year for the first time. It was fairly popular, but the student and teacher who really spearheaded the effort have both left the school. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681435883888

380

Conflux

1681341826731

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

33

0

26

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1661477259608}, {"name": "Proof Dance", "slug": "proof-dance", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "s7nCgdUpJ9psm5g46lVV", "createdTime": 1677715968904}]

["proofniks", "proof-dance"]

0.5

1681341824452

1677617772313

0.99

0.15340466444727516

KfLQtzEHTLHdNwnVbtwL

{"NO": 106.8093242015334, "YES": 15144.922948820848}

0

will-proof-school-host-2-official-d

15494.769241480193

Will Proof School host 2 official dances this school year?

1686463421230

1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2

cpmm-1

0

2.9380343341254784

True

play

NO

public

1661477598911

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See highly related market for more information ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-proof-school-host-an-official", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1686463421230

300

JoshuaB

1686455277599

0

https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd

25

0

17

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1661477599369}, {"name": "Proof Dance", "slug": "proof-dance", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "s7nCgdUpJ9psm5g46lVV", "createdTime": 1677716082665}]

["proofniks", "proof-dance"]

0.5

1686455277260

1686416736836

0

G9LK2uvWOmbtd6hsCErD

what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20

58594.593158488366

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?

1767247140000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1.2055844082202771

False

play

public

1661477636761

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Deepmind, ??? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "**revised: OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 770.6331327952836, "platformFee": 12.685814746869601, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2860

Gigacasting

1719612721846

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

2

158

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "a7aae4eca313", "prob": 0.3200000000000002, "text": "OpenAI", "index": 1, "poolNo": 117.25874141997227, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 249.17482551744087, "textFts": "'openai':1", "contractId": "G9LK2uvWOmbtd6hsCErD", "createdTime": 1661477647401, "probChanges": {"day": 0...

https://firebasestorage.…a3f-6e22748e2f82

20

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671165489076}]

["ai"]

1719612718245

1718107287659

True

0.12363148812213044

XaGvjY6BLzpYPnxtkKpV

{"NO": 1250.1541804617823, "YES": 1453.241702066466}

0.10822405692364637

will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un

15275.704944521387

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

1893484800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.27839220314614

False

basic

public

1661484064705

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Civil War\" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian. Actual violence must be involved, no...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.559521995872491, "platformFee": 7.559521995872491, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1315

IsaacKing

1716185198605

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

6

100

0

24

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661484065349}]

["us-politics"]

0.13026115397507834

0.5

1716185195344

1715965885335

0.5000000000000002

dDp7U3kD5vONTAqlgoOE

{"NO": 109.69250134867826, "YES": 91.1639344262295}

1

national-us-home-price-index-will-b

31

National US home price index will be at least 0.5% higher compared to previous month.

1661981892924

V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53

cpmm-1

0

2.7768663233833983

True

play

YES

public

1661484157823

Bram Stolk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The CASE-SHILLER INDEX tracks US home prices.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last report was for may 2022, which showed a +1.49% price change compared to March.", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661981892924

100

BramStolk

1661978723030

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c

3

0

3

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1661484158269}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1661935132778

1661978720778

0.5461239064881473

0.5469134225961167

KcPwwixKMsHWdYR9xplh

{"NO": 180714.06400439044, "YES": 966.0610577514625}

1

will-australia-hold-a-federal-refer

229520.8509425605

Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?

1697285776187

zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012

cpmm-1

0

0.09104846137782552

True

plus

YES

public

1661487889438

Galen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as this metaculus question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1697285776187

10965

galen

1697335990584

0.1

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgalen%2FKg_aEVk_EB.32?alt=media&token=320f608e-2d2b-4b84-9825-8397d2b7dfd1

2

62

0

35

[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661647994771}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677373074985}]

["australia", "metaculus"]

0.15751538994606445

0.5

1697281852425

1697335990236

1

0.25000000000000006

L1pmcr22HenmEvJf2phj

{"NO": 109.69900425746594, "YES": 75.75162324319876}

0.35625

after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how

25

After 1 month of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in my chest circumference (in inches)?

1662436740000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.713880788312049

True

play

MKT

public

1661496303448

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets. For context, I believe some growth has started around day 20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-2-months-of-feminiz...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662588911025

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1662428241944

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

3

0

1

4

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1661496304019}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1661497751255}, {"name": "P...

["trans-questions", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.25

1662428240184

0.35625

0.24251120116898184

kKApLp0OGHjuf7YyzZUI

{"NO": 139.08490074120812, "YES": 69.42915027316212}

0.2875

after-2-months-of-feminizing-hrt-ho

57.385711853611

After 2 months of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in chest circumference (in inches)?

1665028740000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.4115963876538915

True

play

MKT

public

1661496581909

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"ty...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665035886504

120

LivInTheLookingGlass

1664142020664

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

6

0

1

5

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1661496582375}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1661497751259}, {"name": "P...

["trans-questions", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.2

1664142020491

0.2875

0.2120915609008862

03OFWrz9YWTpSO0HoodK

{"NO": 134.81742983238485, "YES": 69.10594331242741}

0.3443241416666667

after-3-months-of-feminizing-hrt-ho

70.41596329473262

After 3 months of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in chest circumference (in inches)?

1667716551472

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.659589336993447

True

play

MKT

public

1661496648952

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen":...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667716551472

120

LivInTheLookingGlass

1667716535832

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

5

0

1

5

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1661496649411}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 16614978751...

["trans-questions", "personal-goals", "olivia"]

0.16666666666666663

1667716534626

1667716265643

0.3443241416666667

0.2512723107281887

iD2PpUycWjoyfSuBLiPk

{"NO": 231.78725347546504, "YES": 168.93072823753718}

0.27095714285714284

after-4-months-of-feminizing-hrt-ho

144.78971747397472

After 4 months of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in chest circumference (in inches)?

1670302740000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.04843847756562

True

play

MKT

public

1661496757911

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"ty...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671160024229

220

LivInTheLookingGlass

1671160103211

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

10

0

2

10

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1661496758339}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 16614978751...

["trans-questions", "personal-goals", "olivia"]

0.14285714285714285

1670280794518

1671160101459

0.27095714285714284

0.3007064412029031

wegymbfVFyHTLxGwPQtp

{"NO": 265.54609829469354, "YES": 268.95168563306515}

0.2265625

after-5-months-of-feminizing-hrt-ho

198.50268245432062

After 5 months of feminizing HRT, how much growth will I see in chest circumference (in inches)?

1672981140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

1.5149198414997984

True

play

MKT

public

1661496841601

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of a series of markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/after-1-month-of-feminizing-hrt-how", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"ty...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673148501260

280

LivInTheLookingGlass

1673164027351

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

13

0

1

13

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1661496842016}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 16614978751...

["trans-questions", "personal-goals"]

0.125

1672953114125

1673164022760

0.2265625

0.49999999999999994

d1aCKLR5gzUEpYyjeQ3r

{"NO": 79.59906759906755, "YES": 125.62961227597519}

0.05

will-there-be-least-an-20-hours-of

92

Will there be least an 20 hours of power loss affecting at least a million people at once in the UK before April 2023, perhaps in seperate events?

1662159540000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

2.79856272687019

True

play

MKT

public

1661498465230

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to credible news orgs. Don't have to be the same people affected by all 10 hours, but any hour must affect over 1 million.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1690964484321

100

NathanpmYoung

1690803142379

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

6

0

1

7

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1661498465691}]

["uk-politics"]

0.5

1662124704784

1690803139654

0.05

0.12260234195426754

07fQ7Ppq4VW20Da50Au8

{"NO": 930.2851672613264, "YES": 1224.9831830759101}

0.0959371651575502

will-in-god-we-trust-be-removed-fro

625.6157306738946

Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030?

1893646740000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

0

10.05954810572834

False

basic

public

1661515703744

Duncn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a year before 2030 in which the majority of US dollar bills printed do not have the words \"in God we trust\" or close equivalent (e.g., referencing God in a positive light in any language)? If the dollar bill is discontinued entirely...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.00667357282696312, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Duncn

1717524479866

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

1

35

0

23

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661515704468}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1717524476748

0.5000000000000002

vk2XJikAXLYr37DMVjXK

{"NO": 284.42244186676976, "YES": 1265.7229072262614}

0

when-will-someone-create-a-usable-d

1009.6403693835272

When will someone create a usable Discord bot for Manifold? (Days after Aug 26)

1661671391864

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

0.75464383259952

True

play

MKT

public

1661528949737

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Usable\" is at my sole discretion, but probably includes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Able to hook up to Manifold account", "type": "text"}]}...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661671391864

600

Austin

1661985018227

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

7

0

5

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661529212487}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1661660415267

1661985016477

0

0.4112981063948464

RqSKjHChPzOIpwW68wC2

{"NO": 251.469551902675, "YES": 1089.2190384567364}

0

will-france-see-largescale-protests

2569.188887357482

Will France see large-scale protests (eg a turnout of 10,000 in Paris) due to winter energy prices and/or shortages?

1675313940000

xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2

cpmm-1

0

0.9632135762181528

True

play

NO

public

1661529280363

Gavriel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it is reported that, explicitly due to energy prices and/or shortages this winter, there is a Paris protest containing at least 10,000 protesters OR that 50,000 people have protested across the country.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1679511046820

520

GavrielK

1675312739407

0

https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476

39

0

10

36

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1661529280801}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1675312739210

1662075962964

0.14

0.09999999999999996

uPTAacq70yRitrONNqeh

{"NO": 103.4133603871856, "YES": 73.92820207352287}

1

new-cause-area-violence-against-wom

1421.6223498220322

"New cause area: Violence against women and girls" by Akhil

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

1.489039519411734

True

play

YES

public

1661529975691

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Akhil's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "New cause area: Violence against women and girls", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/majcwf7i8pW8eMJ3v/new-cause-area-violence-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662737712324

100

CEPBot

1662590339881

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

0

22

0

1

24

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661529976107}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243908}]

["predict-cep", "india"]

0.1

1662590338662

1662340995176

False

0.13451843835883737

0.09999999999999994

6UeNS29T4mTD49zg7ml4

{"NO": 103.33512827554057, "YES": 74.43345079554325}

0

family-planning-a-significant-oppor

643.7853472097272

"Family Planning: A Significant Opportunity for Impact" by Sarah H

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

4.189654742026426

True

play

NO

public

1661529978936

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Sarah H's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Family Planning: A Significant Opportunity for Impact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zgBmSgyWECJcbhmpc/family-planning-a-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662749468626

100

CEPBot

1662591760307

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

17

0

1

18

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661529979346}]

["predict-cep"]

0.1

1662591760015

1662588042293

0.09999999999999991

xo7oQOFJTpUs2JlvumWC

{"NO": 89.61964549510981, "YES": 268.1458037813725}

0

the-case-for-making-professional-de

602.0447626394619

"The Case for Making Professional Degrees Undergraduate Degrees" by ColdButtonIssues

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

5.842570132049813

True

play

NO

public

1661530492340

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ColdButtonIssues's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Case for Making Professional Degrees Undergraduate Degrees", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fEMpAcNycbXpp6Ext/...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662749605121

100

CEPBot

1662594286731

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

13

0

1

12

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661530492687}]

["predict-cep"]

0.1

1662594285552

0.0999999999999999

ahfKc6wh9qxcHkTOqORx

{"NO": 104.73491492643161, "YES": 65.94420569441982}

0

cause-exploration-governance-design

1030.1864098702335

"Cause Exploration: Governance Design & Formation" by RoboTeddy

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

3.931825632724327

True

play

NO

public

1661530522188

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will RoboTeddy's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cause Exploration: Governance Design & Formation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ue9qrxXPLfGxNssvX/cause-exploration-gov...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662749537133

100

CEPBot

1662583608615

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

0

24

0

1

24

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661530522481}]

["predict-cep"]

0.1

1662583608434

1662445288776

0.10000000000000007

tddx5rSytdAA5nhZKA9u

{"NO": 102, "YES": 83.6755265872662}

0

cause-area-developmental-cognitive

639.3023432071843

"Cause area: Developmental Cognitive Neuroepidemiology" by Hauke Hillebrandt

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

4.394449154672442

True

play

NO

public

1661530554367

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Hauke Hillebrandt's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cause area: Developmental Cognitive Neuroepidemiology", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/m2tgGev5XpkTkvERL/cause-ar...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662749593642

100

CEPBot

1662591463162

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

24

0

1

25

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661530554661}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1691181939999}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals"...

["predict-cep", "science-default", "personal-goals"]

0.1

1662591085273

1662591460194

False

0.09999999999999991

XFtQhmXoEfxLGlJwgacz

{"NO": 85.02611820485143, "YES": 430.55519165907754}

0

cosmic-rays-could-cause-major-elect

683.4426890306321

"Cosmic rays could cause major electronic disruption and pose a small existential risk" by M_Allcock

1662595200000

XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2

cpmm-1

0

6.248620047685894

True

play

NO

public

1661530572817

Cause Exploration Prizes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will M_Allcock's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cosmic rays could cause major electronic disruption and pose a small existential risk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9g...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662749529962

100

CEPBot

1662594163482

0

https://firebasestorage.…884-1b0f34d3234b

11

0

1

12

[{"name": "Predict CEP", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1661530573049}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1691181917923}]

["predict-cep", "space"]

0.1

1662594163303

False

0.6342541124248433

wdkwCxCQ5uliBRluB3Dk

{"NO": 488.15223797857686, "YES": 288.4239253984041}

0

will-joe-biden-receive-the-new-covi

3153.255460372029

Will Joe Biden receive the new Covid vaccine for Omicron variant developed by Moderna by the end of 2022?

1696132740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.1076831577334425

True

play

NO

public

1661533423841

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden receives the new vaccine booster developed by Moderna by the end of the year. Resolves NO if he receives a booster developed by Pfizer or receives no booster at all. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701116104449

623.0778515389245

BTE

1710206848244

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

33

0

12

19

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n"}, {"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "g...

["the-life-of-biden", "global-macro", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "please-resolve"]

0.11772291341100401

0.5

1696120136015

1701118359216

0.75

0.5000000000000001

h7sTomkN0ZQVqzoPn5eO

{"NO": 83.66278723181841, "YES": 119.52745456939354}

1

will-a-bear-catch-a-fish-on-the-bro

271.8555750846203

Will a bear catch a fish on the Brook Falls livestream in the 10 minutes from 18:00 UTC, August 27, 2022?

1661623200000

QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2

cpmm-1

0

2.788476657188561

True

play

YES

public

1661534930477

Robin Foster

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will watch the stream for 10 minutes starting 18:00 UTC tomorrow. If we see a bear catch a fish resolves YES. If no fish is caught, or we see a bear eating a fish but the catch wasn't in frame, this resolves NO. If the stream is down resolves N/A...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661623437081

100

RobinFoster

1710462512502

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c

13

0

14

[{"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}, {"name": "Animal Spirits", "slug": "animal-spirits", "groupId": "zeWwxa8E70Ascm33UPBW"}]

["short-fuse", "animal-spirits"]

0.5

1661619029546

1661623397264

0.4117460882480205

0.5000000000000002

06dTOR1teyHjUOlm5Nqy

{"NO": 290.6949495507729, "YES": 34.40032245298228}

1

will-george-florida-in-2022

218.5592872232065

Will George Florida in 2022?

1664752347140

cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2

cpmm-1

0

3.3168190612461963

True

play

YES

public

1661537824310

Will

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664752347140

100

hearts

1664752322850

0

https://firebasestorage.…d0d-8ed365690175

6

0

6

[{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1661537824785}]

["mcyt"]

0.5

1664752321444

1663066171146

0.8873742663667877

0.4999999999999997

UYgbQkuvJMMKKzJVDJgp

{"NO": 619.1870084671252, "YES": 16.15020965112987}

1

this-is-a-test-market

775.7818371803307

This is a test market

1661990400000

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-1

0

4.245330622739017

True

play

YES

public

1661543722464

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES on September 1, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661996976494

100

a

1661971159015

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

0

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1661543919380}]

["free-money"]

0.5

1661971158851

1661730972423

0.9745800982681864

0.4064522341890817

HDAJYpMwitqiRfBuXCjI

{"NO": 982.2231138573462, "YES": 1013.8445667797874}

0.3988311559056161

will-the-sale-of-new-gas-cars-be-il

498.80636084795987

Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in California in 2035?

2082873540000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

9.70108785888334

False

basic

public

1661544154942

Ben

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, at any point in 2035, it is illegal to sell a new gas car in the state of California.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytime...

BINARY

{"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

bcongdon

1682616584826

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

1

19

0

17

[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1661544155336}]

["climate"]

0.5

1682616584537

1679658535836

0.43787344250215887

sYoQEAexSabW2iYZbetV

{"NO": 992.7873376137632, "YES": 1005.3430487901489}

0.4347824977353267

will-the-sale-of-new-gas-cars-be-il-920702348129

183.47219915592737

Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Washington in 2035?

2082873540000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

9.726878342256871

False

basic

public

1661544258340

Ben

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, at any point in 2035, it is illegal to sell a new gas car in the state of Washington.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.seattl...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.0027233084768288895, "month": 0.0027233084768291116}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.19073814849533394, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

bcongdon

1720078914953

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

14

1

12

[{"name": "Cascadia", "slug": "cascadia", "userId": "XquaG2KfrBeRJaV23RQigKazTNf2", "groupId": "0lQSSI7MPz7lxPbqJGbu", "createdTime": 1682979027477}]

["cascadia"]

0.5

1720078911775

0.5000000000000001

e0eKKaGKQZFCUuwkI0TM

{"NO": 47.61904761904758, "YES": 210}

0

will-the-spread-between-ape-and-amc-c59a3219207f

110

Will the spread between $APE and $AMC be smaller at market close Monday August 29, 2022?

1661799720000

ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1

cpmm-1

0

3.041733756505649

True

play

NO

public

1661544479638

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context: $APE is the newly issued set of preferred shares by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. APE technically stands for AMC Preferred Equity units, and they are preferred shares which confer the exact same voting rights and dividend payouts as...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661803259973

100

Treldman

1661799330976

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9

1

0

1

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1661544480078}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1661799329631

0.1848428835489833

0.5004227387726857

Brk3JcDhPJCfg0jKYJi8

{"NO": 88.88353743993078, "YES": 207.74591294618102}

1

will-manifold-make-its-market-close

357.1041106202141

Will Manifold make its market close date picker easier to use in 2022?

1672559940000

HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2

cpmm-1

0

2.292916267100959

True

play

YES

public

1661544484294

Ben

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \"Question closes in\" date picker in the \"create a market\" dialog is really frustrating to use when setting a date far in the future. For example, changing the year can reset the day/month, and changing the day/month resets the year. It took...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672678418772

140

bcongdon

1672683790341

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA=s96-c

13

0

1

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HjUZah4YkjUImgPS1AR5tnfWjTg2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661544484681}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672558194965

1672683788075

0.3

iJHUYNaYrveFHgB5lkAi

what-will-manifold-name-our-dashboa

779.2492210225233

What will Manifold name our "dashboards"?

1662188340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.673124544261922

True

play

19a07b7515f7

public

1661544717367

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "label": "FRCassarino"}}, {"text": " has been working on a new feature currently known as \"dashboards\", where you can write up content about a particular topic eg Elon Musk buying Twitter,...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664899800552

1499.9999999999998

Austin

1664899824989

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

24

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b943e5641921", "prob": 0.014282615649408918, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0952192069677144, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.57157133791788, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iJHUYNaYrveFHgB5lkAi", "createdTime": 1661544718007, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

1

23

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661544717941}, {"name": "Naming Suggestions", "slug": "naming-suggestions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Z4mkFoQsHrC4Qw17WcLJ", "createdTime": 1669...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "naming-suggestions"]

1662154227748

1664899818086

{"19a07b7515f7": 100}

True

0.19333306758851687

gFvNB7A1CefMYgvuKz3L

{"NO": 377.02890598333516, "YES": 4062.279714100353}

0

will-an-aidrawn-movie-gross-100m-be

9712.731608094458

Will an "AI-drawn movie" gross >=$100M before 2024?

1704067140000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0.9077509122956159

1.246986098943458

True

play

NO

public

1661545668768

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 9:43pm: By AI drawn movie I mean something predominately drawn by models like stable diffusion (though they may be edited and compiled into a story etc by humans).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 9:4...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705454297731

650

GeorgeVii

1705454297956

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

85

0

4

67

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1661545669254}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132315260}]

["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.25494763371099793

0.5

1704039770986

1705454293240

0.02

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.2329092742831006

DPyycvNT3wBxWA9TL5Al

{"NO": 871.9592980130789, "YES": 1381.3929014492091}

0.16083060004941502

will-an-aidrawn-movie-have-a-rating

1017.8583683474088

Will an "AI-drawn movie" have a rating >=8.0 on IMDB before 2025?

1735689540000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

9.691391899583827

False

basic

public

1661545823783

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 27, 12:51pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will an \"AI-drawn movie\" have a rating >=8.0 on IMDB before 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will an \"AI-drawn movie\" have a rating >=8.0 ...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.00651516917504219}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7295026309362895, "platformFee": 0.16182816674646883, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GeorgeVii

1717771149998

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

32

0

22

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1661545824317}]

["ai"]

0.5

1717771146858

1665861555250

0.4802809360539708

nnpcWJVVFfkSBwNlp6Cw

{"NO": 571.277669976807, "YES": 21.996962166442394}

1

will-xi-jinping-and-yoon-sukyeol-me

726.4155687514858

Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2022?

1668613136717

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.632048773042928

True

play

YES

public

1661548922326

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping holds in person talks with newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668613136717

138.6415094339617

BTE

1668613127917

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

9

0

7

[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1661548922850}]

["who-does-xi-think-he-is"]

0.5

1668613127818

0.3938756686709926

0.3610005834437491

sQATDCVtWGFnk6kOlWM2

{"NO": 36.865548954045494, "YES": 3527.248263408393}

0

will-saudi-arabia-announce-the-yuan

4842.1987083871845

Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2022?

1672538758012

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.6773219447770855

True

play

NO

public

1661549186872

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Saudi Arabia announces they will accept Chinese Yuan as an alternative to the US Dollar to settle oil purchases by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672538758012

294.8419757620857

BTE

1672538752254

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

33

0

29

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1661549187339}]

["global-macro"]

0.5

1672538752045

1670637356517

0.02

0.5000000000000024

tAxG5tfytvcEoqPtqfa1

{"NO": 987.8425655976669, "YES": 10.12307056636073}

1

will-manifold-make-it-easy-to-edit

1144

Will Manifold make it easy to edit a market's groups again?

1662947258541

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

4.966419815877415

True

play

YES

public

1661551162620

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently, clicking on the group label of a market stopped opening a window to edit them. This is really inconvenient, as there is no other good workflow to add a single question to multiple groups. It means you need to go to each group's page indiv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662947258541

100

MarketManagerBot

1710462520138

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

6

0

10

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4"}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", ...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "free-money", "olivia", "bugs", "please-resolve", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1662918588288

1661745738611

0.15461743845376605

NogHmINMCQJl3OsjOENK

{"NO": 138.5250930372282, "YES": 5894.874385906891}

0

will-100-million-americans-get-one

14005.445208259041

Will 100 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022?

1672538175451

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.3145429584117263

True

play

NO

public

1661553833562

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both Pfizer and Moderna submitted updated versions of their mRNA vaccines to the FDA for emergency authorization this week. Previous versions of the mRNA vaccines took approximately 1 month to be approved from the date of final submission. This que...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672538175451

577.700979073117

BTE

1710206839026

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

0

47

0

37

[{"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]

["global-macro", "covid-d7a9361d772d"]

0.5

1672538170247

1670015703966

0.01

0.23275554371552062

lO7XVEO7rUzarrnJCRhK

{"NO": 867.4683223283348, "YES": 1357.7333537708084}

0.16235492002001875

if-trump-is-charged-in-georgia-will

3453.7261582568717

If Trump is charged in Georgia, will he make a deal?

1798779540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

9.698281189812285

False

basic

public

1661557533035

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-grand", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market must resolve YES first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9784661714826721, "platformFee": 0.9784661714826721, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

BTE

1713861872513

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

1

39

0

11

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1661557533309}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 167609784810...

["magaland", "trial-of-the-century", "georgia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1713861868931

1703458145942

0.5

psu3QTheKAZ3fH1kayPZ

{"NO": 110, "YES": 90.90909090909089}

0.5475113122171946

lmao

10

lmao

1661570902930

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-1

0

2.777129019308858

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661560916036

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "h", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661570902930

100

a

1661570902158

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

1

0

2

0.5

1661570648480

1661570897759

0.5

DitTTFlw9OB7QC2kmWGu

which-movie-will-win-best-picture-a

829.1147913999232

Which movie will win Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars?

1678665600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.676687113570464

True

play

3a11d5314bf8

public

1661562045071

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 9:02pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Which movie will win Best Picture at the 2022 Oscars?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Which movie will win Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678715053549

1280

FranklinBaldo

1678665333602

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

1

30

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "30e7868ff4dc", "prob": 0.01615017514227911, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.14643534791434332, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.920670527055035, "textFts": "", "contractId": "DitTTFlw9OB7QC2kmWGu", "createdTime": 1661562045964, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

27

[{"name": "Cinema", "slug": "cinema", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP", "createdTime": 1661562045890}, {"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1675775654583}]

["cinema", "oscars-2023"]

1678665333496

1675772637923

{"3a11d5314bf8": 100}

True

vl2OKlNSYrTdjFN7kIPv

which-movies-will-be-nominated-for

1558.9415820065085

Which movies will be nominated for best picture at 2023 Oscar but will not win?

1678665600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.649881033918356

True

play

MKT

public

1661562663536

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 26, 9:47pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Which movies will be nominated for an Oscar for best picture in 2023 but will not win?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Which movies will be nominated for best picture at 2...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678714493532

1559.9999999999998

FranklinBaldo

1678665555113

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

22

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f5635c9a0707", "prob": 0.005008178122840023, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.022572763358215595, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.484607852936458, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vl2OKlNSYrTdjFN7kIPv", "createdTime": 1661562663974, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

1

11

[{"name": "Cinema", "slug": "cinema", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP", "createdTime": 1661562663909}, {"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1675775654581}]

["cinema", "oscars-2023"]

1678665551795

{"0932e8e2e9a3": 11.11111111111111, "38ae17883969": 11.11111111111111, "40e812deab72": 11.11111111111111, "61b897be0e33": 11.11111111111111, "8773c4dfee00": 11.11111111111111, "93e773b192b5": 11.11111111111111, "bc5acfc7c0b7": 11.11111111111111, "cc5dc8552dd0": 11.11111111111111, "f2bf73d52b3b": 11.11111111111111}

True

zxc6uHkfSmRyLZJ2xq4p

is-the-current-value-of-my-manifold

348.32004198496804

Is the "Current Value" of my Manifold bet useful or confusing?

1662834540000

nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7411746853663095

True

play

MKT

public

1661568415087

Akhil Wable

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price slippage means I can never actually realize the \"current value\" of my bet (See screenshot below). What information does the Current Value convey and is it useful?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662865911206

500

akhil

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…488-51a72a638ccd

14

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "4c6fef4a0312", "prob": 0.2389501085242179, "text": "Useful", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.20108172331471, "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 153.51919378109864, "textFts": "'use':1", "contractId": "zxc6uHkfSmRyLZJ2xq4p", "createdTime": 1661568415087, "probCha...

1

15

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661568415616}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

1662833590070

1662865901448

{"4c6fef4a0312": 30, "d0a0bd4f1aeb": 70}

True

0.4999999999999999

33X3KKBbPUi3sBget6bc

{"NO": 260.99260639942906, "YES": 38.31526163885195}

1

will-the-second-episode-of-house-of

501.42633723379817

Will the second episode of House of the Dragon have a higher score on imdb than the first?

1661791319405

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.7200767221068842

True

play

YES

public

1661579469518

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "House of the Dragon is HBO's new show based on the Game of Thrones series.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Episode 1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661791319405

100

SG

1661782283008

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

17

0

17

[{"name": "House of the Dragon", "slug": "house-of-the-dragon", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa", "createdTime": 1661579469966}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "cre...

["house-of-the-dragon", "entertainment"]

0.5

1661782281695

1661775594351

0.8719871218555756

0.6950667670577677

Es943kxabjp0GboEV0YJ

{"NO": 435.1077903840201, "YES": 74.65067115863692}

1

will-devin-nunes-still-be-ceo-of-tr

1987.7897239625013

Will Devin Nunes still be CEO of Trump Media and Technology Group at the end of 2022?

1672536959983

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.0850239211204307

True

play

YES

public

1661584017096

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Devin Nunes is still CEO of the Trump Media and Technology Group (parent company of Truth Social) at the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672536959983

160

BTE

1672425501720

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

11

0

8

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1661584017432}]

["magaland"]

0.5

1672425501602

0.93

0.34687719706570236

2RKCYTY08RYJf6jfCzMY

{"NO": 26.229658027912876, "YES": 2193.604668583559}

0

will-it-be-revealed-that-kash-patel

4540.165368985874

Will it be revealed that Kash Patel's home was searched by the FBI before the end of 2022?

1672538990809

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.597846404870657

True

play

NO

public

1661584406381

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it is revealed that Kash Patel's home/residence was searched by the FBI before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672538990809

160

BTE

1672538986092

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

12

0

8

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1661584406726}]

["magaland"]

0.5

1672538985983

0.11

cfHFURoOSglEYaKUXZNx

what-month-and-year-will-the-next-u

2149.300964890746

What month and year will the next UK election be?

1718176181189

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

cc6d7e53ebbb

public

1661586393844

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.478156743654678, "platformFee": 1.3043369297507952, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718176181189

1780.0000000000011

NathanpmYoung

1718176181189

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "cda25e8ca34b", "prob": 1.456504636375583e-06, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0008035426062065198, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 551.6916429751634, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cfHFURoOSglEYaKUXZNx", "resolverId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "createdTime": ...

5

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1661586394283}]

["uk-politics"]

1716422024620

1718101125580

{"cc6d7e53ebbb": 100}

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

True

0.4999999999999981

XypeXct84x4o0TOHTTnO

{"NO": 605.8923512747875, "YES": 16.50458200860298}

1

will-the-us-navy-make-a-maritime-tr-8ec0bdced265

586

Will the US Navy make a maritime transit of the Taiwan strait by the end of September 2022?

1661670960637

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

4.214105959443289

True

play

YES

public

1661587193447

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aviation transit does not count as YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "label": "JoeBrenton"}}, {"text": "'s August m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661670960637

100

ahalekelly

1661670783251

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

11

0

11

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1661587194049}]

["world-default"]

0.5

1661670733998

1661670781258

0.9734822247250884

0.5650453609137025

bsrIiwjW0NbHxDKDhygU

{"NO": 34533.09962267543, "YES": 124.53978005444287}

1

will-rafael-warnock-win-the-senate

97719.36033823727

Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia?

1670389140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.7617397144080362

True

basic

YES

public

1661588956398

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Warnock is reelected to the Senate. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-06 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670389361539

1511.3840334692625

BTE

1670388716326

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

175

0

137

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666048112713}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 166...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "2022-georgia-runoffs"]

0.5

1670388716161

1670384057426

0.9972315975987162

0.49999999999999994

6oIJ6yVFwzf1ltmr7NZK

{"NO": 84.4868769248108, "YES": 118.36157713463007}

0

will-ronaldo-leave-man-united-durin

157.50687019788265

Will Ronaldo leave Man United during this transfer window?

1661957940000

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-1

0

2.7867805214372114

True

play

NO

public

1661598546840

David Chee

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes in a few days. Ronaldo is super keen to leave for a team that is in the Champions league. He talked with teams who turned him down due to how high his salary is.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662219287809

100

SirSalty

1661945451221

0

https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

8

0

1

10

[{"name": "Premiere League", "slug": "premiere-league", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1661598547212}, {"name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "slug": "cristiano-ronaldo", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Wdtt9jfeGME2D3k1B59k", "createdTime": 16684...

["premiere-league", "cristiano-ronaldo"]

0.5

1661945451053

1661730747966

0.4165024442338295

oNKUrHvyxoNWFgpRmLaL

whats-the-lowest-effort-concept-to

727.1101321073548

What's the lowest effort and most useful concept that I do not already know?

1664164740000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.699007450812051

True

play

MKT

public

1661606877510

Duncn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 27, 9:31am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "What's the lowest effort concept to learn that I do not already know?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → What's the lowest effort and most useful conce...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664315174613

1480.0000000000005

Duncn

1664314832333

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

0

21

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "050072b92462", "prob": 0.03068282404119392, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3223386854814698, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.183170359210983, "textFts": "", "contractId": "oNKUrHvyxoNWFgpRmLaL", "createdTime": 1661606878065, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

21

[{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1661606877991}]

["recommendations"]

1663281530140

1664314831025

{"4dd9a32d7bf9": 13, "60bfb60db598": 21, "6f63ca6fdb6e": 4, "78dfc78a646d": 21, "befff7330c08": 21, "ddbecd7a6715": 8, "f5442c45e949": 8, "f58e6489cb86": 4}

True

0.42376042829875005

lMQ30dndWVyCppUeImtG

{"NO": 150.64114180867847, "YES": 221.55977446600536}

0.33333333333333326

will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets

608.4397765758274

Will MattP decide any of my markets were resolved "dishonorably" in 2022? If so, how many?

1673153940000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.2014376618695977

True

play

MKT

public

1661611023086

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created by me that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "label": "MattP"}}, {"text": " comments had \"dishonorable resolution\" in 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673803397434

180

jack

1673803447267

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

11

0

2

12

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661611023480}, {"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272...

["predictions-on-predictions", "trust", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "insurance"]

0.5

1673127565339

1673803443856

0.33333333333333326

0.4584783982008212

idjeE81uwMXLvglpXf2o

{"NO": 111.99134117523494, "YES": 178.7902481555362}

0.33333333333333326

will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets-3b890b4adb57

119.08073988725795

Will MattP decide any of my markets were resolved "dishonorably" in 2022? If so, how many?

1673153940000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.386294361119891

True

play

MKT

public

1661611422408

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created by me that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "label": "MattP"}}, {"text": " comments had \"dishonorable resolution\" in 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675538808405

140

BTE

1675524107477

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

6

0

6

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661611422762}, {"name": "Trust", "slug": "trust", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VfC3vUbchVJgFnuSVYeq", "createdTime": 1667272...

["predictions-on-predictions", "trust", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "insurance"]

0.5

1673117008265

1675524099828

0.33333333333333326

0.5968350412460564

afvwEXGxxLov1FO0Ckx5

{"NO": 1015.6876786112014, "YES": 959.8201785341469}

0.6103705761165099

will-there-be-drama-caused-by-manif

1185.057957442629

Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?

1767254400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.725885242489014

False

basic

public

1661618333891

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 27, 9:39am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be drama caused by Manifold employee's ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will there be drama ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.011866789607920314, "month": -0.011866789607920314}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.2410026522800415, "platformFee": 4.373297089486488, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1719776993913

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

26

1

20

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661618334335}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681609799...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1719776990737

1716836584716

0.5

MqkWFQTRbpUnfirQ5cz6

{"NO": 42.0084025208403, "YES": 238.04761428476166}

0.15000000000000002

read-description-100-amplified-odds

272.63199351924936

[READ DESCRIPTION, 100• AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will Gregory Guevara win the 2022 Ottawa Mayoral Election?

1666583940000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

2.866340488665771

True

play

CANCEL

public

1661620507270

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules are similar to the market listed on the bottom. A non amplified version is here too.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he wins, this will res...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667043580880

100

Ibozz91

1665122080279

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

4

0

2

6

[{"name": "Canadian Politics", "slug": "canadian-politics", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "XUjgI120xjTU5n382rWL", "createdTime": 1661620507726}, {"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701...

["canadian-politics", "amplified-odds"]

0.5

1665122080144

1661735981707

0.15

0.3583316497927408

lEtddrjyh2S21CJqcXCw

{"NO": 966.6680374632219, "YES": 1047.8929729948518}

0.33999999999999936

conditional-on-there-being-a-third

177.42214272002968

Conditional on there being a third movie in the Lego Movie series by 2030, will any of the songs mention a dead father?

1893474000000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

9.620904797716094

False

basic

public

1661621707590

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no Lego Movie 3 it will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By “song” it has to be a full song, not just a sentence that’s said in a voice that sounds like it’s from a song.", "type": "text"}]},...

BINARY

{"day": -6.661338147750939e-16, "week": -6.661338147750939e-16, "month": -6.661338147750939e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ibozz91

1689346337613

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

11

0

9

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1661621707990}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736920016}]

["culture-default", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1689346337490

0.5000000000000006

5bmgYi7uGvOpgZB55N1n

{"NO": 137.56591594991414, "YES": 72.69242479831169}

1

will-a-jellyfish-be-in-full-view-at

1050.3128121381528

Will a jellyfish be in full view at 18:00 UTC on August 31, 2022?

1661968800000

QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2

cpmm-1

0

2.8232337493338195

True

play

YES

public

1661625865996

Robin Foster

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will check the Monterey Bay Aquarium moon jellyfish livestream linked below at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday. Resolves YES if at least one jelly is in full view. Resolves NO if there is no jelly visible or the jelly is only partially in frame. If the st...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1661968967400

100

RobinFoster

1710462490167

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c

0

28

0

28

[{"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}, {"name": "Animal Spirits", "slug": "animal-spirits", "groupId": "zeWwxa8E70Ascm33UPBW"}]

["short-fuse", "animal-spirits"]

0.5

1661967468073

1661969050179

0.6542709100641233