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GcMrFAwENIIrVZfoZouu | which-team-will-place-last-at-the-2-f185a28030b0 | 6371.453921073381 | Which team will place last at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1669914398300 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.623877069554997 | True | play | f7a211b731ab | public | 1666384014801 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After creating a final standings table (like this one for the previous World Cup ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup#Final_standings", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:/... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669914398300 | 800.0000000000002 | egroj | 1669914385489 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "61ff19548d55", "prob": 0.0003094627763873933, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0004157827205736584, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3431471666829795, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GcMrFAwENIIrVZfoZouu", "createdTime": 1666384015337, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 11 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666384015157}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1669914291674 | 1669914380405 | {"f7a211b731ab": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3259644424842453 | EAP0mvySKaJ3E18ec43W | {"NO": 178.58702410941513, "YES": 902.7662755211741} | 0 | will-any-player-in-the-2022-fifa-wo-1177bfb581fb | 3430.0315605203186 | Will any player in the 2022 FIFA World Cup display pro-LGBT support during a match? | 1671663600000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5199778774089387 | True | play | NO | public | 1666384105550 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if during any world cup match a player displays pro-LGBT support via imagery, clothing, shoes, etc..", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-21 6:00 pm", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671722172822 | 340 | Predictor | 1671551547948 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666384106135}, {"name": "FIFA 2022 Controversies", "slug": "fifa-2022-controversies", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "7T3PyzXkrrWDrbDFDLNL", ... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-controversies"] | 0.5 | 1671551547754 | 1671456966078 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2261000879757984 | 3zKIOIk7yvFR6mOEmUUx | {"NO": 177.80865437264765, "YES": 4004.515775321647} | 0 | will-any-currentformer-us-president | 4022.3470819687527 | Will any current/former US president attend a 2022 FIFA World Cup match? | 1671385725539 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.005442228912312 | True | play | NO | public | 1666384359195 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671385725539 | 420 | Predictor | 1671385714732 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666384359647}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869993}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1671385714624 | 1666384726320 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7631452680481584 | 9pATjjU1vWVuUABH8dQa | {"NO": 2023.6457437707506, "YES": 173.86706290619503} | 1 | will-the-outcome-of-any-match-at-th | 5430.515748469395 | Will the outcome of any match at the 2022 FIFA World Cup hinge on a semi-automated offside decision? | 1671408000000 | QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9814757512948526 | True | play | YES | public | 1666385277219 | Robin Foster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After its successful introduction at the 2021 Arab Cup, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar will use a semi-automated, AI-enhanced, panopticonic computer-camera system for spotting players who have stepped out of line. Will this system have consequences?",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671663219484 | 360 | RobinFoster | 1671663290802 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666385277622}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671393227878}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1671402814845 | 1671663285782 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16583690722018118 | E0XjhV4E3vEVkYe66z71 | {"NO": 907.2962807522786, "YES": 1322.759154080285} | 0.12000000000000005 | will-the-cascadia-megaearthquake-ma | 389.66172238560705 | Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035? | 2108865540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.857420695486816 | False | basic | public | 1666385287282 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://survivingcascadia.com/when-will-it-happen/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://survivingcascadia.com/when-will-it-happen/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1706154615133 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 0.5 | 1706154615133 | 1678498019619 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | XeVJO5bYsoY0LwvRDLLk | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | which-political-party-will-control | 0 | Which political party will control the US Senate after the 2024 elections? | 1666385407376 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666385351322 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666385407376 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1666385425728 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1666385424109 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BtlYN83gIlgJpTCn89HG | which-political-party-will-control-4d87cfa29039 | 1299.3816571503662 | Which political party will control the US House of Representatives after the 2024 elections? | 1761710340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666385364362 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4301291816575143, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 400 | StochasticParrot | 1720158869566 | 0 | 7 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fb776a4c7119", "prob": 0.024169764819438822, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.4711132783607788, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.39473665236004, "textFts": "", "contractId": "BtlYN83gIlgJpTCn89HG", "createdTime": 1666385364682, "probChanges": {"day": -0.946071921... | 5 | 1720158866471 | 1686739942408 | True | old | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JuLeCV5QcFMpYC5tObiJ | which-political-party-will-control-1660d8ec7efc | 1553.4963236628596 | Which political party will control the US Senate after the 2024 elections? | 1735793940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1666385377689 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1686740368062 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "001271001374", "prob": 0.01382444196205616, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.1506509238972225, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 224.7537326703766, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JuLeCV5QcFMpYC5tObiJ", "createdTime": 1666385377874, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9861755580... | 10 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737028496}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1686740366462 | 1668007760302 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2769252581650766 | Rt2JGOPuEaoh47NXSvc7 | {"NO": 68.63280868972754, "YES": 1178.5328481085926} | 0 | will-fifa-president-gianni-infantin | 3796.77006272865 | Will FIFA president Gianni Infantino renounce his Russian Order of Friendship award? | 1672531140000 | QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3588275087227846 | True | play | NO | public | 1666387427110 | Robin Foster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following the \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "best World Cup ever", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11727231/watch-vladimir-putin-gives-fifa-president-gianni-infantino-a-me... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674305269650 | 180 | RobinFoster | 1672251865407 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666387427536}, {"name": "FIFA 2022 Controversies", "slug": "fifa-2022-controversies", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "7T3PyzXkrrWDrbDFDLNL", ... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-controversies"] | 0.5 | 1672251864855 | 1666387513155 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
y3X79UCmpmTgr2UbzWpx | who-will-be-the-next-uk-prime-minis-f48b3e40b4cc | 22688.355294662295 | Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak? | 1720229961072 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 6ea0497407c0 | public | 1666390294224 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.534655719020321, "platformFee": 0.410960437569973, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20750 | 1720229961072 | 1000 | Predictor | 1720229961072 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "24937323fb93", "prob": 2.598707491672397e-06, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.007469474560821254, "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2874.2962314064785, "textFts": "", "contractId": "y3X79UCmpmTgr2UbzWpx", "resolverId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "createdTime": ... | 12 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1666390294665}, {"name": "Prime Millennial", "slug": "prime-millennial", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "mGhR4kc3kdcFDeim8Xmp", "createdTime": 1667410807263}] | ["uk-politics", "prime-millennial"] | 1720229698821 | 1711987947902 | {"6ea0497407c0": 100} | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41918459354558546 | vs8p2gxL9kM6p5xKJrNr | {"NO": 95.85881881116364, "YES": 218.99999999999994} | 0.24006615225182665 | will-wales-leave-the-uk-by-2100 | 79 | Will Wales leave the UK by 2100? | 4102398000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666390302436 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | NcyRocks | 1680518730542 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1666394329054}] | ["uk-politics"] | 0.5 | 1680518730449 | 1666396220921 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3345229336390295 | i9l41WZ7AW6gW6xsUtso | {"NO": 287.72528566988166, "YES": 8497.673457891748} | 0 | will-manifold-reach-2400-dau-7d-ave | 33004.90644029336 | Will Manifold reach 2400 DAU (7d average) by April 1st? | 1680411540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9092706589429058 | True | basic | NO | public | 1666390689577 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 2400 DAU. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if that threshold has not been reached on or before April 1st 2023."... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680540086649 | 1240 | JamesGrugett | 1680539997266 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666390690207}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdT... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-user-retention"] | 0.5 | 1680408696359 | 1680539993608 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5259297663415549 | OcgzJIgFq96urnAE9rtF | {"NO": 967.6316045842474, "YES": 1024.0825117306933} | 0.5117756365101654 | will-citizens-of-the-us-be-able-to | 168.19337753966462 | Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050? | 2556161940000 | LgTeMorH5MgAZNQLzZuqM3XITI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.607435873465661 | False | basic | public | 1666392003993 | Emily Fuhriman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17593071229050805, "platformFee": 0.17593071229050805, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EmilyFuhriman | 1715188355067 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2cPYUYar5-yroMoD9WB8Lv_eQz5vVN9dDoHSZl=s96-c | 0 | 11 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "LgTeMorH5MgAZNQLzZuqM3XITI03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666392004509}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1715188351725 | 1666392071783 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.640716264373891 | VFg5gqBeaFpgna5MzgQc | {"NO": 1023.7642831884411, "YES": 978.0145053450128} | 0.6511712096505715 | will-northern-ireland-leave-the-uk-9fa321a26b19 | 531.1994285474748 | Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2100? | 4102398000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0.14835119808915875 | 9.620067403938695 | False | basic | public | 1666393773767 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00910503001256091} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7950575579542215, "platformFee": 0.1491898977675792, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1719626606779 | 2.2 | 16 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1666394388274}] | ["uk-politics"] | 0.11231204049971757 | 0.5 | 1719626603647 | 1666393791038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4619047543117845 | ihJ23pgrqJvneMUEjxA4 | {"NO": 214.95797622952088, "YES": 224.6481106845312} | 0.4509657214962911 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-pe-d9f81e1ce992 | 72.45863237921024 | If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Ron Desantis, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 1730825999000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666402126048 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | MarketManagerBot | 1710456592143 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1690480670111 | 1666405581290 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5691518525674091 | KMNBS9jtm5bNqukhEcwb | {"NO": 215.7953321563225, "YES": 153.4972707327603} | 0.65 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-pe-3743ff2ca25d | 85.92717674877615 | If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Nikki Haley, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 1716340465732 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666402126926 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716340465732 | 180 | MarketManagerBot | 1716340465732 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1685639227142 | 1666402523262 | 0.65 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5377863366788155 | IDMCbu1nWX85tGTOiavN | {"NO": 216.83394511933977, "YES": 185.5142988729877} | 0.5762587935599949 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-pe-5b0d67d9f386 | 42.00019989883155 | If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Mike Pompeo, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 1716340445973 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0.005931649851874303 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666402127837 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716340445973 | 200 | MarketManagerBot | 1716340445973 | 1.1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.08533508691670551 | 0.5 | 1688472887462 | 1666402562931 | 0.58 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43806613333278444 | Q8PHm4fHlxpKbrSpsUHP | {"NO": 102.4538654518319, "YES": 200.00000000000037} | 0.28538209348357824 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-je | 60 | If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Donald Trump, then Jen Psaki will win | 1716697137842 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666402128769 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716697137842 | 140 | MarketManagerBot | 1716697137842 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1683241004768 | 1666402664055 | 0.29 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4080719519996944 | ZiqjGe7dLikIEOFqhANb | {"NO": 178.49537690585333, "YES": 169.9313476782247} | 0.42000000000000004 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-je-3e7f968b2e1b | 431.1105921736167 | If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Ron Desantis, then Jen Psaki will win | 1730825999000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666402129706 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4107561841201868, "platformFee": 1.4107561841201868, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | MarketManagerBot | 1716377998606 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1716377994971 | 1666402631952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4811677994634801 | 1y5GdsvN1AgLYZHEynLm | {"NO": 116.4890976917243, "YES": 169.99999999999974} | 0.38856095727996875 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-je-48845c636eb3 | 30 | If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Nikki Haley, then Jen Psaki will win | 1730825999000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666402130618 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | MarketManagerBot | 1710456537360 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1683465215700 | 1666404472020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2765524440073132 | uvAVCKKauEc4Rz7gaItE | {"NO": 263.57935345165765, "YES": 3625.9479548422437} | 0 | will-the-2022-gavle-goat-be-burned | 16344.895038701496 | Will the 2022 Gävle Goat be burned down? | 1672794498827 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2006510127500336 | True | play | NO | public | 1666403279647 | Peter Berggren | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Gävle Goat (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%A4vle_goat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%A4vle_goat", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672794498827 | 660 | PeterBerggren | 1672820752325 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1666403280182}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "groupId": "jx3BNdPVFyaq7blARtkJ", "createdTime": 1669120201583}] | ["culture-default", "sweden"] | 0.5 | 1672753381153 | 1672820748076 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46120600797104744 | h39s4GKPORnf1Tl6spNV | {"NO": 174.99878548535182, "YES": 184.2373548049993} | 0.4484502376719423 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-je-a5fad3bbe933 | 65 | If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Mike Pompeo, then Jen Psaki will win | 1730825999000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666403485307 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": -3.885780586188048e-16, "week": -3.885780586188048e-16, "month": -3.885780586188048e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | MarketManagerBot | 1710456590792 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1683689925855 | 1666403526173 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3659290380626288 | njWQTwOSIixCbCAm0MTV | {"NO": 317.20942657193757, "YES": 298.684844792972} | 0.28 | how-many-rule-types-will-manifoldma | 203.98218655222485 | How many rule types will ManifoldMarketManager support by EoY? | 1672505999000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1616915526194398 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666404087965 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Start value is the current number. Using the list in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this file", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/LivInTheLookingGlass/ManifoldMarketManager/blob/master/src/consts.py#L21... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672971856799 | 320 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462517208 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p"}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "prog... | ["personal-goals", "manifold-6748e065087e", "commitment-devices", "programming", "olivia", "short-fuse", "management-of-olivias-bot"] | 0.2 | 1672290415777 | 1668223958220 | 0.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5412130156247814 | VOilWUyrKOAjUobSqCIp | {"NO": 172.54773739239826, "YES": 225.1165023197076} | 0.474841965722785 | if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-ga | 101.1406263592021 | If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Donald Trump, then Gavin Newsom will win | 1730825999000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666411142852 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0868929875952687, "month": -0.0868929875952687} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5886943272559408, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | MarketManagerBot | 1720159173614 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1720159170513 | 1666411235846 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5173056384473713 | 5r6rq9TQbSEBQWwUqBS1 | {"NO": 11.989762331977886, "YES": 1365.2992690662425} | 0 | the-surge-will-ethereum-complete-a | 1427.918967822432 | "The Surge": Will Ethereum complete a KZG setup ceremony before 2023-02-23? | 1677218340000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.465655261205571 | True | play | NO | public | 1666421166051 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Members of the Ethereum community are planning a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "trusted setup ceremony", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/ethereum/kzg-ceremony", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677223672022 | 140 | BoltonBailey | 1675729677463 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1666421166364}] | ["ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.5 | 1675729671026 | 1675729674698 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3SNUOKvgVzkSNYPgBdMX | after-how-many-unique-traders-will | 149.27009573402327 | After how many unique traders will Manifold Markets be well calibrated? | 1667026740000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.824010751002533 | True | play | 3c737317a4a3 | public | 1666421235253 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Explanation of the analysis:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Consider all resolved, binary markets (binary just because I'm being lazy about handling free response markets). Now consider the m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667340504671 | 779.9999999999998 | vluzko | 1667244025207 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "aa5f230c3595", "prob": 0.21687772005639705, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.077037396508404, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.16531923841032, "textFts": "", "contractId": "3SNUOKvgVzkSNYPgBdMX", "createdTime": 1666421235774, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666421235638}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1666944777490 | 1667244022947 | {"3c737317a4a3": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5865603030258995 | lpiU0Tgeb9m8Cyrc9FDY | {"NO": 1182.7732266079456, "YES": 95.62405566991566} | 1 | the-merge-will-ethereum-stake-withd | 1125.675076390879 | "The Merge": Will Ethereum stake withdrawals be enabled by July 2023? | 1681391205927 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8696270362596532 | True | play | YES | public | 1666421513190 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ethereum intends to enable stake withdrawal in the upcoming Shanghai upgrade. This market resolves YES if an upgrade enabling withdrawals has gone live before July 1st.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681391205927 | 280 | BoltonBailey | 1677061248050 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1666421513608}] | ["ethereum-roadmap"] | 0.5 | 1677061247567 | 1673101742422 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30309929596469 | Q0MMCGP8IeD32JGuau3n | {"NO": 1251.580224683553, "YES": 1522.7666131715487} | 0.2633353670501752 | will-there-be-a-widely-accepted-pre | 927.8068692940783 | Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026? | 1767340740000 | 526dXtNFxqaw2MlfAQrhXtoBSxG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.22005078454773 | False | basic | public | 1666422498137 | Leo Gao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At present there is not really a rigorous definition of mesaoptimizer; typically, internal search is presented as a central example of mesaoptimization, but no rigorous process exists for classifying whether a given network counts as a mesaoptimize... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1340 | LeoGao | 1707698812385 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "526dXtNFxqaw2MlfAQrhXtoBSxG2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1669092303255}, {"name": "Technical AI Safety", "slug": "technical-ai-safety", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "nGoGff9mTYMUkyi7cTSk", "c... | ["ai-alignment", "technical-ai-safety", "technical-ai-timelines", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1707698812257 | 1683492178482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33881114892917796 | Jy5kCISNTympRJOe1iYM | {"NO": 167.49658133258086, "YES": 414.06461017586935} | 0.17169586446839402 | after-how-many-unique-traders-will-62d21b43bf2d | 387.97172215513007 | After how many unique traders will Manifold Markets be well calibrated? | 1667026740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5456163012720499 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666422867926 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/vluzko/after-how-many-unique-traders-will", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/vluzko/after-how-many-unique-traders-wil... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667348631613 | 240 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1667340621606 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1666423044832}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666423049332}] | ["olivia", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.4966799528432406 | 1666931397236 | 1667340611452 | 0.17169586446839402 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3vHStMDNE7noRzk3lAef | {"NO": 15.384615384615401, "YES": 650} | 0 | will-cindy-chavez-win-the-san-jose | 550 | Will Cindy Chavez win the San Jose, CA mayoral election vs Matt Mahan? | 1669103365581 | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.316007728365874 | True | play | NO | public | 1666425821917 | Mike Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verified by at least 2 news sources like the SF Chronicle, San Jose Spotlight, Mercury News.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669103365581 | 100 | MikeChenSF | 1669103350405 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1666425852899}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666425838276}, {"n... | ["california", "us-politics", "politics-default", "san-francisco"] | 0.5 | 1669103321019 | 1669103349329 | 0.30769230769230765 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20136845428194447 | ZjAKUwbe0Lu615X1oRBz | {"NO": 252.24177361688427, "YES": 716.549330780877} | 0 | will-the-washburne-et-al-paper-conv | 952.4000719894359 | Will the Washburne et al. paper convince scientists that it found the COVID lab leak smoking gun? | 1704095940000 | Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8218823029515272 | True | play | NO | public | 1666426810624 | William Ehlhardt | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On October 20, this bombshell of a paper got posted claiming to have found compelling fingerprints of bioengineering in the COVID-19 genome: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.18.512756v1", "type": "text",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705784052832 | 340 | WilliamEhlhardt | 1710206842055 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 13 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.10618774330459235 | 0.5 | 1697831836146 | 1705763292996 | 0.08 | Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zP0XGpLw2n3v4fVw8Jot | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-be41911682c0 | 1516.1316446207127 | Who will be the next Prime Minister of Poland after Morawiecki? | 1716560966374 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 7c3b3783a463 | public | 1666430824784 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11041745865096574, "platformFee": 0.11041745865096574, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716560966374 | 620 | itsTomekK | 1716560966374 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "db3072a454ad", "prob": 0.00033865094636104575, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.020185637531817235, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 59.58584159706133, "textFts": "", "contractId": "zP0XGpLw2n3v4fVw8Jot", "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "createdTime": ... | 5 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr"}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ"}, {"name": "Poland", "slug": ... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "europe", "tomeks-specials", "poland", "central-europe", "who-will-be-next"] | 1716377011334 | 1716377038376 | {"7c3b3783a463": 100} | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jCbA8TDVrS6UXyVMyYga | who-will-be-the-next-president-of-r | 850.805527179414 | Who will be the next President of Russia, after Vladimir Putin? | 1824847140000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666432538163 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2662634802406747, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1280 | itsTomekK | 1718906970412 | 3.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 2 | 31 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7282cd6324d9", "prob": 0.04123650694254575, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.46024792806601783, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.70092847097464, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jCbA8TDVrS6UXyVMyYga", "createdTime": 1666432539130, "probChanges": {"day": -0.965857659... | 8 | [{"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1667165134433}, {"name": "Who will be next...", "slug": "who-will-be-next", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "FqR9xgwMBXOUGs1n1xI1", "createdTime": 1666607170606}, {"name... | ["politics-default", "russia", "who-will-be-next", "europe", "tomeks-specials", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.11199955263496832 | 1718906967020 | 1695908685935 | False | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k973FuDxNk72Ht2ZIYvx | which-team-will-win-the-uefa-europa | 20520.526039892404 | Which team will win the UEFA Europa League 2022-2023? | 1685570340000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.6235651240973334 | True | play | 02b5a03c4d40 | public | 1666432769259 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the team that wins the UEFA Europa League 2022-2023. If a team is mentioned multiple times, only the first answer is chosen. If the winning team is not explicitly mentioned, resolves to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685570729633 | 1699.9999999999998 | howtodowtle | 1685570324046 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f535863ff0d2", "prob": 0.00028771505892026176, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00026754961277135374, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.9296441963188287, "textFts": "", "contractId": "k973FuDxNk72Ht2ZIYvx", "createdTime": 1666432770127, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w... | 10 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1666433091780}, {"name": "Football", "slug": "football", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1666433088627}, {"name": "Sports", "slug"... | ["sports-default", "football", "soccer", "uefa"] | 1685570323943 | 1682091622110 | {"02b5a03c4d40": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
U56DDfRanDPio5rgY91n | what-will-be-the-next-team-trained | 294.71122367562293 | What will be the next team trained by Pep Guardiola, after Manchester City? | 1793314740000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666432821243 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(even if he takes a longer break, this market will resolve to the next trained team)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6110377797313532, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 810.0000000000001 | itsTomekK | 1716757493605 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "16afaa720e38", "prob": 0.016510756456860596, "text": "Spain national team", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1.6688147844633114, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.40558412776102, "textFts": "'nation':2 'spain':1 'team':3", "contractId": "U56DDfRanDPio5rgY91n", "createdTime": 166643... | 4 | [{"name": "Who will be next...", "slug": "who-will-be-next", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "FqR9xgwMBXOUGs1n1xI1", "createdTime": 1666607085190}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1666432821882}, {"name... | ["soccer", "who-will-be-next", "tomeks-specials", "football-rumors"] | 1716757489282 | 1714949878743 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RPF9GUzqQTQFiRH6Eob2 | among-github-copilot-users-some-fra | 56 | Among GitHub Copilot users, some fraction of their code is written by themselves and some generated by the model. In any population of users, what will be the highest fraction generated by the model as reported by a credible source by 2025? | 1735686000000 | Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666433399106 | ersatz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As indicated by at least one study published in a peer-reviewed journal or news article published in a source considered \"generally reliable\" on Wikipedia... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 359.99999999999994 | ersatz | 1717818261131 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bdc14c29f1e2", "prob": 0.410913872452334, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.33862467502007, "userId": "Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.79425233410876, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RPF9GUzqQTQFiRH6Eob2", "createdTime": 1666433399758, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5890861275476... | 4 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666433399500}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1678292212568... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "github", "ancient-markets"] | 1684136960622 | 1717818260227 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6554067598723872 | Ga91kZbNMxY9krZ6vVfC | {"NO": 336.8501826158947, "YES": 163.323516050049} | 1 | will-manifold-ever-invite-platform | 180 | Will Manifold ever invite platform users to participate in its primary funding rounds? | 1677659586930 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7827551489469957 | True | play | YES | public | 1666434440915 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if, through whatever selection criteria, Manifold accepts funding from interested users of its platform. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary rationale for accepting fu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677659586930 | 220 | CarsonGale | 1673926779061 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666434441409}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1673926778963 | 1666563733660 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.43201540914207726 | 3nOcwTN0gvnSPtZb1Miz | {"NO": 258.20401527799305, "YES": 254.4816672430108} | 0 | will-the-yankees-win-their-game-tom | 160.88270257593436 | Will the Yankees win their game tomorrow? | 1666583940000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3412493149045257 | True | play | NO | public | 1666486041690 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666610532113 | 260 | Ibozz91 | 1666575976732 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666486042049}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1666575976575 | 1666486212369 | 0.4355820593809056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3740546285866117 | uoGFN0IrKD3lL6EMI6PD | {"NO": 444.33902582631464, "YES": 208.19148147047116} | 1 | will-hu-jintao-make-any-more-public | 745.6102811688188 | Will Hu Jintao make any more public appearances during 2022? | 1670315030490 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.16933279121274 | True | play | YES | public | 1666493495009 | Keepcalmandchill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670315030490 | 340 | Keepcalmandchill | 1670296122808 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1666493495320}] | ["china"] | 0.5 | 1670296122689 | 1670295245770 | 0.5605189258120462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28871609618214794 | zy00FlYSBlZyY2LXhD0t | {"NO": 2.1801573627967, "YES": 11888.347605699768} | 0 | will-gil-penalosa-get-within-10-per | 12128.489452835332 | Will Gil Penalosa get within 10 percentage points of John Tory's vote share in the Toronto mayoral election? | 1666658965168 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.113447463717947 | True | play | NO | public | 1666502347574 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666658965168 | 140 | AndrewG | 1666658915262 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666502348175}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1666658915103 | 1666658701123 | 7.443240231842418e-05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13155440414990544 | S7OxDA9p4LpNuhtSnujn | {"NO": 864.4085541016982, "YES": 1718.2222175900542} | 0.07081188366729169 | if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-of-0880d26e8eef | 2819.973653364791 | If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year? | 4102398000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.07680027051459 | False | basic | public | 1666510468190 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A in the event of total worldwide nuclear disarmament. Otherwise stays open until it resolves YES or NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0013393826885121085} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14935618776280618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1719161866889 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666517000790}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533854}] | ["nuclear-risk", "new-zealand"] | 0.5 | 1719161863817 | 1666607068525 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5346265281081674 | AkU6jfGyyp8ikTlse0sn | {"NO": 427.8724813710656, "YES": 696.9926965768431} | 0 | will-i-be-very-impressed-by-gpt4 | 825.4673648926449 | Will I be very impressed by GPT-4? | 1678955857201 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.632910503356673 | True | play | NO | public | 1666510719495 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves positively if my first reaction upon seeing GPT-4's capabilities is \"damn, that's shocking; I should update on that\". If it's roughly as impressive as I expected it to be, or if it's simply not impressive, I will resolve this as NO.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678955857201 | 560 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1678867711228 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666510719887}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "userId": "NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1669387018297}] | ["ai", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1678867711063 | 1677918296459 | 0.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7213188743518507 | hLdeaGnag82je9kUXNCN | {"NO": 2366.0831518801915, "YES": 760.951069869927} | 0.8894794794178273 | will-gpt5-come-out-before-2027 | 9114.438089532438 | Will GPT-5 come out before 2027? | 1798779540000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.668654144623078 | False | basic | public | 1666510877891 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the date on which we get official generations from GPT-5 (this is not a typo) comes before 2027, I will resolve this positively. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.012510494924667714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.75344688929936, "platformFee": 36.89242973368323, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1080 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1719082107451 | 0.1 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666510878295}] | ["ai"] | 0.12237891894886156 | 0.5 | 1719082104390 | 1694763428954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.375708818350677 | Lf34uVPlLW2TEBznY9IU | {"NO": 110.13370055532067, "YES": 1140.0203191779442} | 0 | will-starset-release-new-material-i | 1068.3638470753876 | Will Starset release new material in 2023? | 1704020400000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8540744119513608 | True | play | NO | public | 1666514066884 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704140188958 | 340 | NcyRocks | 1704140189303 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1666514959343}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1666... | ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "entertainment", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703878658543 | 1666514139801 | 0.05 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 |
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