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v8DUAiv3xVoXWs20p8RW | why-did-the-chicken-cross-the-road | 65.04839654123066 | Why did the Chicken Cross the Road? | 1668833940000 | LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666160810064 | ThatGuy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lets see how this develops . . .", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 340 | ThatGuy | 1702871643577 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "70954c620d50", "prob": 0.6013765737844418, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 68.54609171673802, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.435886805271686, "textFts": "", "contractId": "v8DUAiv3xVoXWs20p8RW", "createdTime": 1666160810793, "probChanges": {"day": -0.39862342621... | 2 | 6 | [{"name": "Humor", "slug": "humor", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "jrXPXQBjQhtB3VPU9TeO", "createdTime": 1666160810598}] | ["humor"] | 1666280365722 | 1702871642878 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fpndJNvE13foXF5X4bfY | a-priest-a-rabbi-and-a-minister-wal | 45 | A Priest, A Rabbi, and A Minister Walk Into a bar. . . | 1668833940000 | LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666161058799 | ThatGuy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lets see how this develops . . .", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 320 | ThatGuy | 1702167139069 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "59ac30147e38", "prob": 0.4756242568370987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 63.41656757827983, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.9167657550535, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fpndJNvE13foXF5X4bfY", "createdTime": 1666161059261, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5243757431629... | 2 | 6 | [{"name": "Humor", "slug": "humor", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "jrXPXQBjQhtB3VPU9TeO", "createdTime": 1666161059112}] | ["humor"] | 1668831062661 | 1702167137334 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48682369230789563 | OBrGQP93zEMN8JfG1ix3 | {"NO": 215.2194094728441, "YES": 148.81194123605704} | 0.5784118359865736 | will-a-us-state-attempt-to-leave-th-8290a27c7737 | 85.35164090795331 | Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100? | 4102398000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666161829062 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4662693693642406, "platformFee": 0.4662693693642406, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | NcyRocks | 1716136521700 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666169913435}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1716136517912 | 1666161895112 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I6q96YTc5Ogi3yPKUxdW | what-links-will-be-included-in-the | 44 | What links will be included in the next ACX links roundup? | 1668758340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.912273172347273 | True | play | 8b050a7a9db4 | public | 1666162578800 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves equally to each link included in the next edition of AstralCodexTen's regular link roundup.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://astra... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674061547030 | 440 | Austin | 1674061559530 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ec7100c9ab09", "prob": 0.48225308641975306, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.645797098905796, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.29972776538526, "textFts": "", "contractId": "I6q96YTc5Ogi3yPKUxdW", "createdTime": 1666162579317, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 2 | 7 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1666162579156}] | ["acx"] | 1668746285159 | 1674061556902 | {"8b050a7a9db4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7800707920507088 | pM0RmjJQL5fJw3urhPLY | {"NO": 1.7415753504151326, "YES": 2146.8393818633867} | 0.0007692307692307692 | i-want-to-borrow-m1000-for-1-week-h | 2138.119516074813 | I want to borrow M$1000 for 1 week. How much will I pay the borrower at the end? | 1667404740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.656879320413212 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666163221486 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone agrees to loan me M$1000 for 1 week, how much will I pay back? This resolves at the end of the first such 1 week loan. The loan will be processed by the loaner creating a manalink for M$1000. I will then create a manalink for the amount ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667409341689 | 450 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462517110 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9"}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name... | ["fun", "interest-rates", "free-money", "olivia", "loans", "short-fuse"] | 0.8076923076923077 | 1666764389971 | 1667568451802 | 0.0007692307692307692 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8236787667505553 | hpWLpiMpABaQtzKpJ4wL | {"NO": 15434.392791334458, "YES": 310.32032932611617} | 1 | the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-hot-at | 16063.513200232204 | The war in Ukraine is still "hot" at the end of August 2023 | 1693540740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0.11722213139048347 | 1.4293113761393728 | True | play | YES | public | 1666163336107 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Made for a challenge bet that might get someone on the site", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 19, 5:26am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The war in Ukraine still be \"hot\" at the end of August 2023", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1693552027326 | 720 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1693549686806 | 1.2 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1666163415071}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1666163413188}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "oli... | ["ukraine", "wars", "olivia"] | 0.15595012912667558 | 0.5 | 1693507336353 | 1693549686539 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4527248498290609 | hiRYYZtDXTwshQGZGemz | {"NO": 136.87451641532107, "YES": 189.85242861332364} | 0.373589183444008 | will-the-turkic-states-merge-by-210 | 70.14757138667645 | Will the Turkic States merge by 2100? | 4102398000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666164480489 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere ho... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | NcyRocks | 1683279321121 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666166645716}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1683279320800 | 1666164535377 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4388091807594843 | GdDAIsfML2c1idzKUEY5 | {"NO": 131.84252854106984, "YES": 261.99374958257897} | 0.2823754930797828 | will-an-elector-from-washington-dc | 269.33341063221667 | Will an elector from Washington, D.C. vote for a Republican President in the 21st century? | 4133934000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1666168080283 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the Electoral College, that is. It's Democratic, but not THAT Democratic.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | NcyRocks | 1689278567294 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666168383436}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1689278567166 | 1679689897585 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2992898183391881 | h6wQgO8NtR7rNvNnfrSG | {"NO": 270.8689821808043, "YES": 1050.0775484541532} | 0 | will-my-company-revert-work-from-ho | 1099.5158721210516 | Will my company revert work from home policy in 2022? | 1672531140000 | LZP7JtCPMDhJ4JVwP1AwmHuL71e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1796828129845056 | True | play | NO | public | 1666169283190 | Anon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Post covid a few companies have been reverting their work from home policies. Will this be the same for my firm by 2022? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant facts:", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672532332645 | 440 | anon471957205719 | 1672483307436 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmU2lULY2NbuYthPZAOjGlLKcLZsB-nKYRLTlqy-w=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LZP7JtCPMDhJ4JVwP1AwmHuL71e2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1666169283848}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672483307323 | 1666169322135 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33632490240530843 | 2JLkGE7HGHVqguEH4XRy | {"NO": 792.2167947927725, "YES": 1354.2073875946005} | 0.2286673196451168 | are-any-millenium-prize-problems-un | 1834.900828204262 | Are any Millennium Prize problems undecidable/unprovable/unsolvable? | 32503633200000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0.11435050759919176 | 9.708475999252457 | False | basic | public | 1666171680912 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 19, 10:38pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Are any Millenium Prize problems undecidable/unprovable/unsolvable?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Are any Millennium Prize problems undecidable/unprovable/unsolvable?",... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1713758861659 | 2.2 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Millennium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYijmPEJDY", "createdTime": 1666172343108}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime"... | ["millenium-prize-problems", "mathematics", "ancient-markets"] | 0.11869639236549354 | 0.5 | 1713758858461 | 1694906668201 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lLbc4vZ9ZIgcmGh7DWbl | who-will-win-the-usau-ultimate-fris | 313.95652516315477 | Who will win the USAU Ultimate Frisbee championships (open)? | 1666561836912 | S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.781315569578946 | True | play | c6aedbbeda4a | public | 1666174212184 | Billy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no result (eg. Tournament cancelled) will resolve NA. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666561836912 | 339.99999999999994 | billyhumblebrag | 1666558610904 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9ede64596946", "prob": 0.13123359580052493, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.954808872785909, "userId": "S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.80083473784271, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lLbc4vZ9ZIgcmGh7DWbl", "createdTime": 1666174213003, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 2 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666174212789}] | ["sports-default"] | 1666558610739 | 1666174340297 | {"c6aedbbeda4a": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | QC1urkJgVY7EpEkSKNY5 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.15 | how-many-people-will-attend-the-oxf-981ce06d123f | 0 | How many people will attend the Oxford Rationalish ACX Meetups-Everywhere 2022? | 1666306740000 | 5OZK9agt1lVKkOGtPrImZxddc6p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.701635339554951 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666179152275 | Sam Brown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year's ACX Meetups Everywhere!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every year Scott Alexander publicises local rationality-adjacent meetups around the world, on his blog Astral Codex Ten. It'... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666348072076 | 100 | SamBrown | 1666179257541 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmksa2FQYpyxy1GEJli_KSC1X66S71ZExr3_Q53f=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "5OZK9agt1lVKkOGtPrImZxddc6p1", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1666179152826}] | ["acx"] | 0.1 | 1666179256821 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7732003659663403 | znZuBu5VDD1vPA4b0ryu | {"NO": 976.7769792147591, "YES": 1420.728312790001} | 0.7009455828051513 | will-any-remaining-millenium-prize | 16339.044504320278 | Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans? | 2234933940000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0.8820165889703048 | 8.128834361210885 | False | basic | public | 1666212584384 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will humans be responsible for the solutions to any remaining Millenium Prize problem?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is aiming for the scenario where most future advanced math is done by AI. If even ... | BINARY | {"day": 0.00027206736754814553, "week": 0.001364445907370393, "month": 0.00014380948026615492} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.64291588296799, "platformFee": 25.506004051396626, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1 | 1340 | vluzko | 1720217322557 | 2.2 | 3 | 80 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666212612624}, {"name": "Millennium Prize Problems", "slug": "millenium-prize-problems", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "wS8Ust85K2AYij... | ["ai", "millenium-prize-problems", "technical-ai-timelines", "mathematics"] | 0.18855277656045097 | 0.5 | 1720217319419 | 1689010622830 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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evrIXLerLjl3WnCJWeHE | what-happened-to-james-gordon-meek | 259.7952117930937 | What happened to James Gordon Meek? | 1684864098905 | mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.762573724633814 | True | play | c359ec929fbe | public | 1666218949366 | Andrew Hartman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Helpful context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/fbi-raid-abc-news_producer-1234613619/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/poli... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684864098905 | 540 | AndrewHartman | 1684863938062 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f2f109610c4d", "prob": 0.10129182638950653, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.720459370219353, "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.137180255688143, "textFts": "", "contractId": "evrIXLerLjl3WnCJWeHE", "createdTime": 1666218950173, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666218950028}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737022362}] | ["politics-default", "ancient-markets"] | 1684439812974 | 1684863936111 | {"c359ec929fbe": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7310426376889031 | U1dx9AdtFDEczqZlGTe9 | {"NO": 4255.419812922695, "YES": 547.0975422206335} | 0.954836052850808 | will-carson-emily-let-me-marry-them | 3570.4330475660613 | Will Carson & Emily let me marry them (providing they haven’t already eloped)? | 1830319140000 | t83EJ0hiRpQCwJfk86dT23eTimz2 | cpmm-1 | 0.004401976777789851 | 9.996976926122752 | False | basic | public | 1666219871729 | Jodi Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The big mystery is IF Carson or Emily have already eloped. The second mystery is will they let Max, myself (ordained minister as of today 💒💍👰♀️🤵♂️) or someone else participate in said marriage ceremony. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1306073096759458} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.342793208725485, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JodiGale | 1718489641002 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu01TdArGRBNRhfj_uDs7cKMW_k8C-giAxLzVJ2xU6o=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666822033227}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "t83EJ0hiRpQCwJfk86dT23eTimz2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1666219872254}, {"name"... | ["culture-default", "sex-and-love", "gale-family", "markets-about-carson"] | 0.09817278393301383 | 0.5 | 1718489637947 | 1666238077001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6668576588828256 | al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S | {"NO": 713.780823232516, "YES": 80529.82302074977} | 0 | will-destiny-reach-600k-subscribers | 729467.2241921093 | Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November? | 1669877940000 | Oh0L7bpPyXSmexPTtqHzVmiylgC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.20034151177703263 | True | plus | NO | public | 1666220589960 | The Void | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to 'yes' if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Destiny's main Youtube channel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/user/destiny", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-any... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669880151059 | 16760 | Voidian | 1685802391377 | 0 | 0 | 1628 | 0 | 1291 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "GgEwiiBGdmUrMJhqIOnH2rGCSSt1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669415502137}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1669876715784 | 1685802387436 | 0.01743305857480082 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4759513482338029 | zjDo5oG0DlsLvxqz2R2t | {"NO": 179.82366281810897, "YES": 224.06413373648692} | 0 | will-the-total-construction-spendin | 65.15782941417599 | Will the total construction spending in the US fall more than 1% in September? | 1667275140000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6332011451195552 | True | play | NO | public | 1666227313712 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP) provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the United States.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667333087575 | 200 | Predictor | 1667213664830 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1666227314209}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1667213654365 | 1666227348700 | 0.4215961431328838 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2010258067497861 | LZggGRNIoz0iKTQy8PQJ | {"NO": 115.46808551138383, "YES": 45096.328945060275} | 0 | will-andy-jassy-leave-the-role-of-a | 45697.54580377674 | Will Andy Jassy leave the role of Amazon’s CEO by the end of 2023? | 1704083331810 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0.15539469623124597 | 1.0490243611618233 | True | play | NO | public | 1666227904660 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Former Amazon Web Services chief executive Andy Jassy stepped in as CEO of Amazon in July 2021, ending Jeff Bezos’ 27-year tenure in the role.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either Andy Ja... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704083331810 | 440 | Predictor | 1704083332471 | 2.2 | 19 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Fire the CEO Markets", "slug": "fire-the-ceo-markets", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "LWJ5wcYDOJBhYRKc188S", "createdTime": 1666613623167}, {"name": "Business", "slug": "business", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1666227905009... | ["business", "fire-the-ceo-markets", "ceos-of-companies", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.16196276572118076 | 0.5 | 1704083327417 | 1666227943077 | 0 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13072900257117234 | oiDJH0f1JVpAN8KTeSk0 | {"NO": 858.4163139562938, "YES": 1601.688360639558} | 0.07458845541181748 | will-scientists-create-artificial-b | 693.6409193023275 | Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.087933156544018 | False | basic | public | 1666228219469 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The problem with blood shortages in blood centers may be over soon. Scientists in Japan are looking to develop an artificial blood type that can be used on any patient, regardless of blood type. Tests have been promising in animals, but artificial ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Predictor | 1712292125884 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1666228219892}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1712292115995 | 1666228320876 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JzJWasj2zX0YZ1ypTnWw | what-percentage-of-the-electoral-vo | 850.2262453671253 | [OLD MECHANISM] What percentage of the electoral vote will each 2024 Presidential candidate receive? | 1730718000000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1666228334830 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not counting faithless electors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is broken and outdated; use this one instead:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://man... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.407785090378573, "platformFee": 0.49240928965047714, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1716607681506 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3a8754f9ea3a", "prob": 0.03389551337716939, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.2799302284897, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 549.5248556425472, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JzJWasj2zX0YZ1ypTnWw", "createdTime": 1666228335011, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 7 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1666230961579}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "cre... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 1716607676711 | 1711836789199 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12861918831666574 | 55umkDH3YW3lL0DIq8Kg | {"NO": 338.41824582739355, "YES": 52015.56304724043} | 0 | will-bitcoins-price-reach-another-a | 57683.46236770387 | Will Bitcoin’s price reach another all-time high by the end of 2023? | 1704083554552 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 2.3871031407925637e-15 | 0.35791352814766153 | True | play | NO | public | 1666228561160 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After reaching the unit price of 67,617 USD on November 8th, 2021, Bitcoin has consistently lost value to the point of being trade for less than 20,000 USD in the following months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704083554552 | 720 | Predictor | 1704083555280 | 0.5 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666228561549}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.11547309506368218 | 0.5 | 1704083550802 | 1666228667150 | 0 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2661119505374572 | E3Iy0nWYLRZrbjyW6qUp | {"NO": 76.81723928332576, "YES": 46720.68732334275} | 0 | will-amber-heard-be-removed-from-aq | 70097.7503288564 | Will Amber Heard be removed from Aquaman 2? | 1703181514197 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.001197450631679 | True | play | NO | public | 1666228664101 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the unfolding of Johhny Depp vs Amber Heard's trial in the courtroom, the actress lost screen time in the movie Aquaman 2, allegedly having her participation reduced to less than 10 minutes. Nonetheless, there are still initiatives attempting ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703181514197 | 480 | Predictor | 1703181509712 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1666228664514}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1703181509554 | 1695134759135 | 0 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4628679166555207 | GU8UcRSh1tJWmGsDPwAe | {"NO": 163.83295953610212, "YES": 12568.965167653065} | 0 | will-the-supreme-court-overturn-cal | 16288.89407697344 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's pig cage ban in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross? | 1683846613701 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0441375310221894 | True | basic | NO | public | 1666233678626 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this Vox article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/9/23393017/supreme-court-pork-pigs-prop-12-california-animal-welfare", "class": null, "tar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683846613701 | 1360 | Austin | 1683859953367 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 5 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 40 | [{"name": "US Judiciary ", "slug": "us-judiciary", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "fn3K66FEEdix860EzTJU", "createdTime": 1666247130860}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247121830}, {"name": "Effect... | ["effective-altruism", "scotus", "us-judiciary", "california", "metaculus", "supreme-court", "court-cases"] | 0.5 | 1683842938963 | 1683859950042 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2564437771274822 | bW9Uec0sARb1OZobkWQ1 | {"NO": 933.2339785293034, "YES": 1141.1449613728887} | 0.21999999999999983 | will-most-of-tsmcs-2022existing-fab | 623.609860685282 | Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030? | 1950839940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579520914259724 | False | basic | public | 1666234218089 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.002932262517605533} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7597667440034663, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1718337958089 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1666234354421}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666234358120}] | ["taiwan", "semiconductors"] | 0.5 | 1718337954972 | 1671830398260 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36412758949921353 | fF9RplSCVXsDHatpweWL | {"NO": 82.83855988204033, "YES": 1038.4125150198622} | 0 | will-apple-announce-an-m2-imac-in-2 | 3183.9645784116633 | Will apple announce an M2 iMac in 2022? | 1672559940000 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3188564789935953 | True | play | NO | public | 1666237228271 | Passion Fruit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673288615974 | 240 | PassionFruit | 1673288617760 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1666237228864}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1666237361704}] | ["apple", "technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1672358431131 | 1673288613861 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7608711048398258 | rQcpcXCUfRmGcG0I5uDg | {"NO": 732.0479597162135, "YES": 420.46917077549574} | 1 | texas-files-an-antitransgender-bill | 488.4072999021407 | Will Texas enact an anti-transgender bill before 2025? | 1687382145033 | iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.060522489319825 | True | play | YES | public | 1666237885146 | Nicholas Charette | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Texas' next legislative session begins Jan 10, 2023. Resolves YES if an anti-transgender bill is filed in Texas before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise. Note that bills passed in special sessions are also included in this question, as long as the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1687382166513 | 500 | NicholasCharette73b6 | 1685986444385 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1666243029200}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666237966802}, {"name": "Politi... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "lgbtqia", "trans-questions", "texas"] | 0.5 | 1685986444244 | 1669064254418 | 0.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2593453611428874 | IBTvDq8a9kzniYv2SRfN | {"NO": 362.7205029431109, "YES": 658.7676726034847} | 0.16163509187748393 | be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-can-asmo | 473 | [be swallowed up by the sun] Can Asmodeus hear Carissa's prayers? | 1668833940000 | 1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1296768855576387 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666238416532 | Numendil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Asmodeus is revealed to have noticed any of Carissa's prayers, or the existence of dath ilan due to Carissa's presence on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if thi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671217357302 | 440 | Numendil | 1668833919447 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 20 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1666238417057}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.5 | 1668833919345 | 1667157522075 | 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3844545639465024 | Fqf6LCvDqRjzlsTD3CUL | {"NO": 335.0945934219815, "YES": 451.373433323256} | 0.31678954276343047 | if-china-is-blocked-from-buying-chi | 359.9994542655089 | China has been blocked from buying supercomputer chips from TSMC. Will they invade Taiwan before the end of 2025? | 1678586230058 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8445230751926094 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666245337554 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is announced before the end of 2023 that a majority of Chinese chip companies will be blocked from making leading-edge chips at TSMC, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678586230058 | 380 | ahalekelly | 1678340804704 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666245338061}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666245495759}, {"name"... | ["world-default", "semiconductors", "china"] | 0.5 | 1678013465504 | 1678340802465 | False | 0.32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2578960026636509 | cJkLRonFBgGWAo2xVHQN | {"NO": 299.5215511459005, "YES": 1805.0537016844294} | 0 | will-bitcoin-reach-to-14k-before-th | 3488.739373031286 | Will Bitcoin reach to $14k before the end of 2022? | 1672505940000 | lazeOAbg37YLJYRcTJm6NZLWpQy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1897026841388956 | True | play | NO | public | 1666247680531 | Andreas Tobing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year, Bitcoin has drop above 60% yet so many traders out there think that Bitcoin hasn't reach the macro-bottom. Historically Bitcoin drop 85% every 4-year and the macro-bottom formed in about 365 days. So will history repeat this time?", "typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673333355341 | 500 | andreasrtobing | 1673154727026 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 21 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "lazeOAbg37YLJYRcTJm6NZLWpQy1", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666247681059}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16732673491... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1672487402102 | 1673154721911 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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