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# Come for the productivity, stay for the philosophy
There's a large class of things that eventually make you more effective when you've studied them for a while, but which are challenging and seem like they produce no gains while being learned.
Formal logic, for instance, seems that way for a lot of people.
Many of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y7ZDjNrKtnfMYoQtT/come-for-the-productivity-stay-for-the-philosophy |
#
Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 2
*This article is the script of the Rational Animations video linked above. This time, we go into the power law that constitutes the "core" of this model, how to generate simulations of the model, and how to generate predictions from simulations. The predictions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trPP6GdkeXjKtEhza/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-2 |
# What exactly is GPT-3's base objective?
_\[Probably a noob question\]_
I'm thinking about what an inner alignment failure might look like for GPT-3. This would have to involve some deployment context in which GPT-3 performs significantly worse (by the standards of the base objective) than it did in training. (It wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nq58w4SiZMjHdAPaX/what-exactly-is-gpt-3-s-base-objective |
# Self-education best practices
I have a degree in a field I no longer wish to pursue in my career (English literature). Without a university and all it comes with (libraries, knowledgeable people, etc.), what are the best ways to self-educate and gain a substantive knowledge base in subjects I have little background ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vs6otrEbNGExehBQP/self-education-best-practices |
# Relaxation-Based Search, From Everyday Life To Unfamiliar Territory
Suppose I’m making plans to visit my parents for the holidays. I go online, and I book plane tickets. I do *not* worry about how I’m going to get to the airport - indeed, that question probably wouldn’t even enter my mind until a few days before the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tXjJDXCp4pZzzeg8Y/relaxation-based-search-from-everyday-life-to-unfamiliar |
# Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions
The following is a partially redacted and lightly edited transcript of a chat conversation about AGI between Eliezer Yudkowsky and a set of invitees in early September 2021. By default, all other participants are anonymized as "Anonymous".
I think this Nate So... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpvyhFy9WvCNsifkY/discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-interventions |
# Using blinders to help you see things for what they are
In basketball, people are often, well, biased in favor of one player over another. For example:
> There's no way that _Khris Middleton_ is better than Kyrie Irving.
Kyrie is widely perceived as an ultra-talented superstar, while Middleton is perceived as a n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G7Lx62oe9S6rAJaLh/using-blinders-to-help-you-see-things-for-what-they-are |
# Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming
I was considering splitting off my analysis of the effectiveness of Pfizer’s Paxlovid, a new Covid-19 treatment pill, but it’s so straightforward there’s no reason to do that. It works, with our best guess being it is 89% effective at preventing hospitalization... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2g6dxPRGqLLxftaZM/covid-11-11-winter-and-effective-treatments-are-coming |
# A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics
Container logistics is an interesting but complicated topic, with a lot of implicit knowledge kept by industry insiders. In this post, I'll give a brief overview, based on my experiences having worked in the industry for three different shipping companies (all located in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PHmYhE4sKnwzYgvkh/a-brief-introduction-to-container-logistics |
# Measuring and Forecasting Risks from AI
As part of my work for Open Philanthropy, I recently wrote a call for grant proposals on [measuring and forecasting risks](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cPwcUSl0Y8TyZxCumGPBhdVUN0Yyyw9AR1QshlRI3gc/edit) from future AI systems. I personally think this is a promising area ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kxQkwiRKje7rGxMFb/measuring-and-forecasting-risks-from-ai |
# ALERT⚠️ Not enough gud vibes 😎
🚓🚓WEEOOWEEOOWEEOO🚓🚓
It has come to the attention of the Center for Applied Postrationality there aren't enough ｇｏｏｄ ｖｉｂｅｓ right now. We wish to rectify this error.
Here are some ｇｏｏｄ ｖｉｂｅｓ. May you pass the vibe check, when the time comes. (Hint: It's the [Dankularity](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KHj8ovcscWYYRtc2G/alert-not-enough-gud-vibes |
# Preprint is out! 100,000 lumens to treat seasonal affective disorder
Let’s give people with winter depression (seasonal affective disorder, SAD) LOTS OF LIGHT and see what happens!
Our preprint is out now for our paper “100,000 lumens to treat seasonal affective disorder: A proof of concept RCT of bright, whole-roo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEweugBipR5P2cMyK/preprint-is-out-100-000-lumens-to-treat-seasonal-affective |
# Stop button: towards a causal solution
The stop button problem is the problem that if you have an AGI, you might want to give it a stop button that humans can press, so that if it is misaligned, it can get fixed. It is a problem because it is a convergent instrumental goal to prevent yourself from being turned off. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wxbMsGgdHEgZ65Zyi/stop-button-towards-a-causal-solution |
# Why I'm excited about Redwood Research's current project
[Redwood Research's current project](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/k7oxdbNaGATZbtEg3/redwood-research-s-current-project) is to train a model that completes short snippets of fiction without outputting text where someone gets injured. I'm excited about t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pXLqpguHJzxSjDdx7/why-i-m-excited-about-redwood-research-s-current-project |
# A Defense of Functional Decision Theory
This post is an attempt to refute an article offering critique on Functional Decision Theory (FDT). If you’re new to FDT, I recommend reading [this introductory paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05060.pdf) by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares (Y&S). The critique I attempt to ref... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R8muGSShCXZEnuEi6/a-defense-of-functional-decision-theory |
# Average probabilities, not log odds
Let's say you want to assign a probability to some proposition X. Maybe you think about what odds you'd accept bets at, and decide you'd bet on X at 1:99 odds against X, and you'd bet against X at 1:9 odds against X. This implies you think the probability of X is somewhere between... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2jH8GqNhoE5vguni/average-probabilities-not-log-odds |
# Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
The following are some comments I gave on Open Philanthropy Senior Research Analyst Joe Carlsmith’s Apr. 2021 “[Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1smaI1lagHHcrhoi6ohdq3TYIZv0eNWWZMPEy8C8byYg/edit#)”, publish... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cCMihiwtZx7kdcKgt/comments-on-carlsmith-s-is-power-seeking-ai-an-existential |
# Sci-Hub sued in India
Sci-Hub is being sued by Elsevier, again, this time in India. Two other large publishers are also on the suit.
Sci-Hub has been getting sued in lots of Western countries over the past 6 years and losing default judgments because they didn’t really defend. In India, they have a better shot:
1.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FSYCFvosHCbf6Dgfw/sci-hub-sued-in-india |
# Coordination Skills I Wish I Had For the Pandemic
In the previous post I noted the pandemic as a wakeup call for coordination-capabilities. There are a few different lenses to look at this through.
Today, I want to look through the lens of *skills I wish I had had.*
There are many pandemic-relevant skills that are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EKaqqrfeJs5HwyDdb/coordination-skills-i-wish-i-had-for-the-pandemic |
# You are probably underestimating how good self-love can be
*I am very grateful to the following people, in general, and for their helpful feedback on this post: Nick Cammarata, Kaj Sotala, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg, Sam Clarke, Mrinank Sharma, Matej Vrzala, Vlad Firoiu, Ollie Bray, Alan Taylor, Max Heitmann, Rose Had... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BfTW9jmDzujYkhjAb/you-are-probably-underestimating-how-good-self-love-can-be |
# A pharmaceutical stock pricing mystery
*Epistemic status: case study based on a few hours' research. I own shares in a health sciences fund, but don't actively trade or own individual stocks in either of these companies. This is part of a larger project to understand the pharmaceutical industry, and isn't meant as i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZXGs4Kzv9SHjBhawF/a-pharmaceutical-stock-pricing-mystery |
# What would we do if alignment were futile?
This piece, which predates ChatGPT, is no longer endorsed by its author.
Eliezer's [recent discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpvyhFy9WvCNsifkY/discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-interventions) on AGI alignment is not optimistic.
> I consider the present g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xv77XjuZEkjRsvkJp/what-would-we-do-if-alignment-were-futile |
# Education on My Homeworld
I appreciate Eliezer Yudkowsky [going public with where he came from](https://yudkowsky.tumblr.com/post/81447230971/my-april-fools-day-confession). It has given me the courage to speak about the planet I'm from.
Sometimes people ask me how I know so much about such a wide range of topics. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CmHwWsCfnPApzHXFR/education-on-my-homeworld |
# [Linkpost] Paul Graham 101
> There’s probably no one who knows more about startups than Paul Graham. Having helped thousands of startups through Y Combinator, the startup accelerator he co-founded, there’s a thing or two to learn from his essays. And Graham’s wisdom isn’t limited to startups either; his essays, read... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNerSurJy8rntDb5Y/linkpost-paul-graham-101 |
# Improving on the Karma System
**TL;DR:** I think it would improve LW to switch from the current karma system to one that distinguishes \[social reward\] from \[quality of writing/thought\] by adding a 5-star scale to posts and comments. I also explore other options.
Karma
-----
Back in 2008, LessWrong was created ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xN2sHnLupWe4Tn5we/improving-on-the-karma-system |
# Televised sports exist to gamble with testosterone levels using prediction skill
Testosterone levels go up and down based on success and failure in conflicts. It indicates the likelihood you’ll win the next conflict and determines your propensity to engage in further conflict. Win a lot, your levels go up, and you’r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kmZuaYGm5aYxiGGBr/televised-sports-exist-to-gamble-with-testosterone-levels |
# An Emergency Fund for Effective Altruists (second version)
*This is a rewrite of [an old post of mine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JDdmcc4CmMDDo82rZ/an-emergency-fund-for-effective-altruists), incorporating ideas from [Alicorn's earlier post on the same topic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A4DkMYgiDCmRMtKxr/fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A6Ebdw3DMEdh7Jr6C/an-emergency-fund-for-effective-altruists-second-version |
# Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
Recently, a discussion of potential AGI interventions and potential futures [was posted to LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpvyhFy9WvCNsifkY/discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-interventions). The picture Eliezer presented was broad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xHnuX42WNZ9hq53bz/attempted-gears-analysis-of-agi-intervention-discussion-with-1 |
# Re: Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
# TL;DR
I think AGI architectures will be quirky and diverse. Consequently, there are many possible futures. My thoughts on the AI alignment problem are far more optimistic than (my best measure of) mainstream opinions among AI safety researc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTLEzJGdWS5wdyghw/re-attempted-gears-analysis-of-agi-intervention-discussion |
# My understanding of the alignment problem
I've been clarifying my own understanding of the alignment problem over the past few months, and wanted to share my first writeups with folks here in case they're useful:
[https://www.danieldewey.net/risk/](https://www.danieldewey.net/risk/)
The site currently has 3 pages:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WckCfXpfrb9Bms8aA/my-understanding-of-the-alignment-problem |
# Worst Commonsense Concepts?
Perhaps the main tool of rationality is simply to use explicity reasoning where others don't, as Jacob Falcovich [suggests](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YcdArE79SDxwWAuyF/the-treacherous-path-to-rationality):
> New York Times reporter Cade Metz interviewed me and other Rationalists mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvttEKGbeQHoopczt/worst-commonsense-concepts |
# The poetry of progress
I’ve said that Western culture, before the World Wars, had a positive [philosophy of progress](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress). How do we know that people in that era saw glory, romance, even poetry in progress?
One way we know is that they literally wrote poetry abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEeFLcuWZFgDtWXyx/the-poetry-of-progress |
# Dan Luu on Persistent Bad Decision Making (but maybe it's noble?)
Dan walks through some extremely clear-cut sports examples where people continued making decisions that were ~~wrong~~ costing them wins in ways that were easily calculable. They did eventually change, but even that took years, sometimes decades. Give... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CGbbgodZhhA8y46HL/dan-luu-on-persistent-bad-decision-making-but-maybe-it-s |
# Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty
This post is the first in a series of transcribed Discord conversations between Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky, moderated by Nate Soares. We've also added Richard and Nate's running summaries of the conversation (and others' replies) from Google Docs.
Later conversation ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty |
# Streaming Science on Twitch
Recently I was watching a livestream of a poker professional. I was surprised and interested in how it wasn’t purely-gut calls, and also wasn’t purely technical decisions, but a blend of both (with some other stochasticity thrown in).
I’ve been thinking about how to get more good scient... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8F2ytp8RRXvrZprJt/streaming-science-on-twitch |
# D&D.Sci Dungeoncrawling: The Crown of Command Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boLvvZiRazNqipup7/d-and-d-sci-dungeoncrawling-the-crown-of-command): if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yours... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h2RyXY7Aygc9Ppt8i/d-and-d-sci-dungeoncrawling-the-crown-of-command-evaluation |
# Quantilizer ≡ Optimizer with a Bounded Amount of Output
*(Crossposted from* [*my blog*](https://itaibn.wordpress.com/2021/11/16/quantilizer-%e2%89%a1-optimizer-with-a-bounded-amount-of-output/)*)*
[In 2015](https://intelligence.org/2015/11/29/new-paper-quantilizers/) MIRI proposed *quantilizers* as a decision theor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZjDh3BmbDrWJRckEb/quantilizer-optimizer-with-a-bounded-amount-of-output-1 |
# A positive case for how we might succeed at prosaic AI alignment
_This post is my attempt at something like a response to [Eliezer Yudkowsky’s recent discussion on AGI interventions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpvyhFy9WvCNsifkY/discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-interventions)._
I tend to be relatively p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5ciYedyQDDqAcrDLr/a-positive-case-for-how-we-might-succeed-at-prosaic-ai |
# Two Stupid AI Alignment Ideas
Epistemic status: this is not my field. I am unfamiliar with any research in it beyond what I've seen on LW. These are the best ideas I could come up with when stopping to think about the problem, and aren't things I've seen on LW, but I don't imagine that they're original and I would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AtzuxdKs9DXcD7G6o/two-stupid-ai-alignment-ideas |
# Why Save The Drowning Child: Ethics Vs Theory
(cross-posted on [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ntGSAfGeC8ujgAnFm/why-save-the-drowning-child-ethics-vs-theory))
A consequentialist, a deontologist, and a virtue ethicist are walking through a forest discussing the fundamental nature of moralit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ujnmr7cX4zpjWAqwn/why-save-the-drowning-child-ethics-vs-theory |
# Super intelligent AIs that don't require alignment
An idealized computer program acts on a defined set of inputs, and produces a defined set of outputs.
When we talk about AI misalignment there's two fears:
1. The AI will hack the system and produce outputs that it's not theoretically meant to be able to produce ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bxJQoXKuHsnCwcimg/super-intelligent-ais-that-don-t-require-alignment |
# Why I am no longer driven
(cross-posted from my blog, [Sunday Stopwatch](https://sundaystopwatch.eu/why-i-am-no-longer-driven/))
I used to be very driven. I'm talking "wake up at 4 AM, go run with my dog, take a cold shower, study for two hours, go work, meditate, cook, go to MMA practice, read a book before bed" d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xLiyDgJQ2iDmuGxth/why-i-am-no-longer-driven |
# Equity premium puzzles
*Crossposted from the Metaculus Journal with minor modifications. The original is [available here](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8532/equity-premium-puzzles/), and you can forecast on the questions cited in the essay yourself after signing up.*
From 1870 to 2015, stocks in the United St... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2c43ooAhew8MtmBJQ/equity-premium-puzzles |
# Quadratic Voting and Collusion
Quadratic voting is a proposal for a voting system that ensures participants cast a number of votes proportional to the degree they care about the issue by making the marginal cost of each additional vote linearly increasing - see [this post by Vitalik](https://vitalik.ca/general/2019/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ppav5dtuFNCiC6GP9/quadratic-voting-and-collusion |
# Sasha Chapin on bad social norms in rationality/EA
> So, I’ve noticed that a significant number of my friends in the Rationalist and Effective Altruist communities seem to stumble into pits of despair, generally when they structure their lives too rigidly around the in-group’s principles. Like, the Rationalists beco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XckKxjcRjGfRcSSL4/sasha-chapin-on-bad-social-norms-in-rationality-ea |
# Applications for AI Safety Camp 2022 Now Open!
If you’ve read about alignment research and you want to start contributing, the new iteration of the AI Safety Camp is a great opportunity!
It’s a virtual camp from January to May 2022, where you collaborate with other applicants to work (1h / normal workday, 7h / week... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QeetPm8yvFf7mAGj9/applications-for-ai-safety-camp-2022-now-open |
# Experience on Methotrexate
Several months ago [I wrote](https://www.jefftk.com/p/wrist-update) about how my wrists/hands were still not doing well, and about how I was going to be trying Methotrexate. I have since gone off it, initially for a covid shot, but I'm now considering staying off it.
After meeting again w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FgbDYCMbAJajRCzno/experience-on-methotrexate |
# Forecasting: Zeroth and First Order
*Part of lecture notes for the upcoming* [*Stat157*](https://www.stat157.com/) *class on Forecasting.*
Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the problems and how long each will take. Problem 4 looks a lit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xSwzvbKys8v83RsGf/forecasting-zeroth-and-first-order |
# Satisficers Tend To Seek Power: Instrumental Convergence Via Retargetability
**Summary**: Why exactly should smart agents tend to usurp their creators? Previous results only apply to optimal agents tending to stay alive and preserve their future options. I extend the power-seeking theorems to apply to many kinds of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nZY8Np759HYFawdjH/satisficers-tend-to-seek-power-instrumental-convergence-via |
# Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal
I had already written most of this week’s post, and also spun out a way-too-long way-too-deep dive on what happened with a retracted FLCCC paper that that I was planning to publish today but I can’t yet because the rabbit hole is still getting deeper, when Scott Alexander posted... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jDj4rNxaudWL5RjiJ/covid-11-18-paxlovid-remains-illegal |
# Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
This is the second post in a series of transcribed conversations about AGI forecasting and alignment. See the [first post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty) for prefaces and more information about the format.
Colo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hwxj4gieR7FWNwYfa/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-ai-capability-gains-1 |
# How To Get Into Independent Research On Alignment/Agency
I’m an independent researcher working on AI alignment and the theory of agency. I’m 29 years old, will make about $90k this year, and set my own research agenda. I deal with basically zero academic bullshit - my grant applications each take about one day’s att... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P3Yt66Wh5g7SbkKuT/how-to-get-into-independent-research-on-alignment-agency |
# Goodhart: Endgame
**I - Digression, aggression**
The perspective arrived at in this sequence is almost aggressively third-person. Sure, I allow that you can have first-person stories about what you value, but these stories only rise in prominence to an outside observer if they're supported by cold, hard, impersonal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dmp9PZjpSSX5NeXHM/goodhart-endgame |
# Which booster shot to get and when?
I live in the US. I'm 37 years old and fairly healthy though not in perfect health with regard to covid risk (I'm a little overweight and have a blood clot in my personal history). I've never gotten covid as far as I know. I got my second dose of Pfizer on April 21, 2021. I am ten... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6wRi7EjYg6FLXfhm3/which-booster-shot-to-get-and-when |
# Ambitious Altruistic Software Engineering Efforts: Opportunities and Benefits
**LessWrong Note**
I recently published this on [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/9g2DikiZmbrTJTRRj/p/2ux5xtXWmsNwJDXqb), then was recommended to also cross-post here. It's written a bit more for the EA community, but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vd7eaYuZgNaWqoJc/ambitious-altruistic-software-engineering-efforts |
# More detailed proposal for measuring alignment of current models
Here’s a more detailed proposal for a project someone could do on [measuring](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cPwcUSl0Y8TyZxCumGPBhdVUN0Yyyw9AR1QshlRI3gc/edit) [alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/7Rvctxk73BrKqEaqh/call-for-research... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbAymLbJdGbqTumCN/more-detailed-proposal-for-measuring-alignment-of-current |
# A Certain Formalization of Corrigibility Is VNM-Incoherent
Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents an unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcement learning, conflating "utility" with "re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCX3EwnWAx7eyucqH/a-certain-formalization-of-corrigibility-is-vnm-incoherent |
# Competence/Confidence
This "essay" is a bit of an experiment, format-wise. I'd like to draw the reader's attention to a certain way of thinking about and evaluating progress that's been useful to me in a wide variety of domains. It's an exercise I run through when I'm feeling stuck, which almost always provides so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xhDgmKsnnYukYFtH9/competence-confidence |
# [Book Review] "Sorceror's Apprentice" by Tahir Shah
I don't like cars. Watching the world go by through a car window is like watching television. You're too protected.
There's a book *Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values* by Robert Pirsig. It's about a father-son motorcycle trip. My dad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FabrFpzg5f5RTCrHt/book-review-sorceror-s-apprentice-by-tahir-shah |
# The Emperor's New Clothes: a story of motivated stupidity
One day, the all-wise Emperor decided to test the perspicacity of his advisers, and he announced that he was having a new set of clothes made.
When the Imperial Clothing Advisory Group was brought in to see the finished product, there was an awkward silence.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fns5rmJDjM88gFqgC/the-emperor-s-new-clothes-a-story-of-motivated-stupidity |
# South Bay ACX/LW Meetup - CHANGED LOCATION
***Location changed to Ilmarin House (Sunnyvale). ***
This is a relaxed Saturday afternoon gathering at ~~Washington Park (if conditions are favorable) or~~ Ilmarin House which has some amount of outdoor space. Since this is (partially) indoors we ask that you only come if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/zgAaFcyrHn3PbxGh7/south-bay-acx-lw-meetup-changed-location |
# The Maker of MIND
After my first rebirth - my mind labile, full of that indescribable sense of renewal, everything new again, everything fresh, everything tinged with a subtle *hilarity* \- I assisted Bartosz Sumner, now rather well-known in some parts as the author of *The Making of MIND*.
Bart had lived many mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H4kadKrC2xLK24udn/the-maker-of-mind |
# Chris Voss negotiation MasterClass: review
This post is about the [negotiation MasterClass taught by Chris
Voss](https://www.masterclass.com/classes/chris-voss-teaches-the-art-of-negotiation)
as well as a related [MasterClass Session by Chris
Voss](https://www.masterclass.com/sessions/classes/win-workplace-negotiati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CRAzG386t3suSqDgd/chris-voss-negotiation-masterclass-review |
# Split and Commit
*This is an essay describing a basic sanity-inducing mental movement that I use approximately ten times per week, and suspect other people would benefit from adopting (and regularly reminding each other to do). I've talked about it* [*elsewhere*](https://medium.com/@ThingMaker/its-not-what-it-looks-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t2LGSDwT7zSnAGybG/split-and-commit |
# Giving Up On T-Mobile
I'd been thinking of moving away from T-Mobile since their depressingly cavalier account messaging a few weeks ago where [they sent](https://www.jefftk.com/p/t-mobile-spurious-account-takeover-warning) what were effectively "your account is in the process of being hacked" notifications as part ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8bn5gfbvwdh5Bhajr/giving-up-on-t-mobile |
# Vitalik: Cryptoeconomics and X-Risk Researchers Should Listen to Each Other More
5 years ago, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote an [important but little-known blog post](https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/why-cryptoeconomics-and-x-risk-researchers-should-listen-to-each-other-more-a2db72b3e86b) that deserves ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qwLK9BZGG7kNLbcN3/vitalik-cryptoeconomics-and-x-risk-researchers-should-listen |
# “The Wisdom of the Lazy Teacher”
>If you teach a man to fish, he’ll be eating fish for a lifetime. Teach him to teach himself to fish, and you’ve given him the fundamental life skill of figuring things out on his own.
— [Wylie Beckert](https://www.muddycolors.com/2021/01/the-wisdom-of-the-lazy-teacher/) | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iSTMDw6qKdA6jDNa3/the-wisdom-of-the-lazy-teacher |
# Some real examples of gradient hacking
_Speculation and an invitation to make further suggestions or clarifications_
I've been wondering what might count as an analogous example of [gradient hacking](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXH4r6MmKPedk8rMA/gradient-hacking) if any has ever occurred, and if it could be use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GPoPKk2wr2r4uPwxe/some-real-examples-of-gradient-hacking |
# The Meta-Puzzle
_This post was inspired by the Raymond Smullyan book [The Riddle of Scheherazade](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/169727/the-riddle-of-scheherazade-by-raymond-smullyan/)._
This post contains two puzzles: first, a puzzle to warm up, then a meta-puzzle about the first puzzle. I strongly encou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RJDvcDpvxzpmvHhmy/the-meta-puzzle |
# Even if you're right, you're wrong
*Epistemic status: I noticed a commonality between a set of rhetorical moves that I sometimes find irritating and sometimes think is valid.*
You claim P? OK. But even if you’re right about P…
* … if I assume P, then I can prove not P. So, by contradiction, P is false. So you’re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KsQNTnjhB8L2JGyaT/even-if-you-re-right-you-re-wrong |
# A Bayesian Aggregation Paradox
**In short:** There is no objective way of summarizing a Bayesian update over an event with three outcomes $A : B : C$ as an update over two outcomes $A : \neg A$.
Suppose there is an event with possible outcomes $A,B,C$.
We have prior beliefs about the outcomes $p_1:p_2:p_3$. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R28ppqby8zftndDAM/a-bayesian-aggregation-paradox |
# Morally underdefined situations can be deadly
**Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for help with this post.**
## Morally underdefined situations
I recently argued that full understanding of value extrapolation[^ve] was [necessary and almost sufficient](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3e6pmovj6EJ729M2i/general-alignment-plus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7q6jQ7y9xQNAkbTtt/morally-underdefined-situations-can-be-deadly |
# Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
This is a transcription of Eliezer Yudkowsky responding to Paul Christiano's [Takeoff Speeds](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) live on Sep. 14, followed by a conversation between Eliezer and Paul. This discussion took place after Eliezer's [conve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH/yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds |
# Potential Alignment mental tool:
Keeping track of the types
*Epistemic status: Came up with what I was thinking of as a notation. Realised that there was a potentially useful conceptual tool behind it.*
Consider this diagram.
 Cognition
You may have heard a few things about “[predictive processing](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/)” or “[the global neuronal workspace](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ZbmRyDN8TCpBTZSip/p/x4n4jcoDP7xh5LWLq),” and you may have read some of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6chtMKXpLcJ26t7n5/integrating-three-models-of-human-cognition |
# Use Tools For What They're For
> *Maybe there isn’t and can’t be a simple heuristic you can teach everyone in school or via a PR campaign which will lead to them having making good health decisions in an adversarial information environment, without having any negative effects anywhere else. But you also don’t want p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ds2Rwg3tcCFAtgfTj/use-tools-for-what-they-re-for |
# Slightly advanced decision theory 102: Four reasons not to be a (naive) utility maximizer
TL;DR: _Introduction to decision theory with examples from effective altruism. Resulting optimal strategies differ from "naive" utility maximisation, but match community norms._
Meta: I've also posted this on the [EA Forum](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xGPXDNGYebD3rgCoa/slightly-advanced-decision-theory-102-four-reasons-not-to-be |
# AI Safety Needs Great Engineers
**Top line: If you think you could write a substantial pull request for a major machine learning library, then major AI safety labs want to interview you** ***today*****.**
I work for [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/), an industrial AI research lab focussed on safety. We are bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YDF7XhMThhNfHfim9/ai-safety-needs-great-engineers |
# Laplace's rule of succession
[Laplace's rule of succession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession) is a commonly used heuristic in forecasting the occurence of events which have little to no historical precedents. The basic problem setup is this: suppose you flip a coin with an unknown bias \\( N = H + T ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ea7CGqF3pmqpebogK/laplace-s-rule-of-succession |
# AI Tracker: monitoring current and near-future risks from superscale models
**TLDR:** We've put together a website to track recent releases of superscale models, and comment on the immediate and near-term safety risks they may pose. The website is little more than a view of an Airtable spreadsheet at the moment, but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eELny7y7JtCs6fQaA/ai-tracker-monitoring-current-and-near-future-risks-from |
# French long COVID study: Belief vs Infection
*Thanks to* [*JustisMills*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/justismills) *and* [*Ruby*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ruby) *for reviewing this post. Any errors are my own.*
TLDR: The French long COVID [study](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fulla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LETXrTsGAqJrcik3T/french-long-covid-study-belief-vs-infection |
# Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update
What Alex Tabarrok called [The Paxlovid Paradox](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/11/the-paxlovid-paradox.html#comments) is getting noticed by the people who notice such things, and completely ignored by everyone else. I’ve split off this week’s Paxlovid u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYt2XWwcxWvicqL8m/paxlovid-remains-illegal-11-24-update |
# [AN #169]: Collaborating with humans without human data
Listen to this newsletter on **[The Alignment Newsletter Podcast](http://alignment-newsletter.libsyn.com/)**.
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BT7yLvSdyuerqzPpc/an-169-collaborating-with-humans-without-human-data |
# Why do you need the story?
* Boy: Why are you washing your hands?
* Shaman: Because this root is poisonous.
* Boy: Then why pull it out of the ground?
* Shaman: Because the pulp within it can cure the mosquito disease.
* Boy: But, I thought you said it was poisonous.
* Shaman: It is, but the outside is m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/faGfpCwznWbe3AytD/why-do-you-need-the-story |
# Base Rates and Reference Classes
*Part of lecture notes for the upcoming* [*Stat157*](http://www.stat157.com/) *class on Forecasting.*
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov. 1st, 2024?
*\[Note: This was written on Nov. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ahWnHGZCWqzTnXs4i/base-rates-and-reference-classes |
# First Strike and Second Strike
**First-strike** weapons destroy your enemy's ability to retaliate. **Second-strike** weapons preserve your ability to retaliate after a first strike.
Missile defense systems constitute first-strike technology. Suppose you build an effective[^1] missile defense system. You could launc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iKiepqDciPSsmQ57W/first-strike-and-second-strike |
# Coordinating the Unequal Treaties
You captain a ship. You used to be a pirate. That was before there was the state monopolized the use of force on the high seas. You became a merchant. Then a privateer. Now you're a naval officer.
[Roll a D4.](https://rollthedice.online/en/dice/d4)
1. You're American.
2. You're Bri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnioWdcJXm2rbtGci/coordinating-the-unequal-treaties |
# Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving
For [my first Thanksgiving post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/covid-11-26-thanksgiving/), which somehow was both a year ago and almost a year into the pandemic, I gave thanks at the end of the post. With all that’s happened, it seems more appropriate to do this at the _be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGn6pJ3vSsnqmGiiH/covid-11-25-another-thanksgiving |
# Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's ["Takeoff Speeds" discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq/p/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH).
Color key:
|... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7MCqRnZzvszsxgtJi/christiano-cotra-and-yudkowsky-on-ai-progress |
# Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations
Am I affiliated with Latacora?
------------------------------
No, not in any way.
What is Latacora?
-----------------
From their own [webpage](https://www.latacora.com/):
> Latacora does just one kind of engagement: we join your engineering team virtu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XpyaQvSbfmYdMtMcZ/latacora-might-be-of-interest-to-some-ai-safety |
# Rapid Increase of Highly Mutated B.1.1.529 Strain in South Africa
I'm sorry to ruin your holidays. The video above is my only source for this information. I will summarize the key findings here.
A cluster of cases among students in Gauteng was recently sequenced. A new variant, B.1.1.529 was found. The mutation pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aShg5mryzKuyPCur2/rapid-increase-of-highly-mutated-b-1-1-529-strain-in-south |
# Why don't our vaccines get updated to the delta spike protein?
[Delta and Delta Plus evade the antibody response](https://www.dpz.eu/en/home/single-view/news/delta-und-delta-plus-weichen-der-antikoerperantwort-aus.html):
> Delta and Delta Plus were less well inhibited (neutralized) by antibodies from infected and v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBGij8Q9i4CZzvbxP/why-don-t-our-vaccines-get-updated-to-the-delta-spike |
# EfficientZero: How It Works
The goal of this essay is to help you understand [EfficientZero](https://github.com/YeWR/EfficientZero), a reinforcement learning agent that obtains better-than-human median performance on a set of 26 Atari games after just two hours of real-time experience playing each game.
Specificall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mRwJce3npmzbKfxws/efficientzero-how-it-works |
# Responding to common objections to the FDA unbanning Paxlovid *right now*
Here I respond to a number of objections to the FDA making Paxlovid available right now that came up in the comments section on Scott's post "[When will the FDA Approve Paxlovid?](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pKb7HgCCsukpftw3m/responding-to-common-objections-to-the-fda-unbanning |
# Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over
The last day has seen the imposition of new travel restrictions and spreading alarm about the Omicron variant. It sure looks like a repeat of what happened with Alpha and Delta, as well as the original strain back in early 2020, and that we are probably doing th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6apSCHHuWyxK635pE/omicron-variant-post-1-we-re-f-ed-it-s-never-over |
# Kriorus update: full bodies patients were moved to the new location in Tver
Yesterday Valery Pride got a decision from police that she is an acting director and owner of the dewar vessels with full bodies patients in Sergiev Posad (Semhoz) which she unsuccessfully tried to take in September. Based on that decision s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Na9psrTdJiZXT9AXb/kriorus-update-full-bodies-patients-were-moved-to-the-new |
# larger language models may disappoint you [or, an eternally unfinished draft]
what this post is
=================
The following is an incomplete draft, which I'm publishing now because I am unlikely to ever finish writing it.
I no longer fully endorse all the claims in the post. (In a few cases, I've added a note... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pv7Qpu8WSge8NRbpB/larger-language-models-may-disappoint-you-or-an-eternally |
# Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
One sad feature of modern American society is that many people, especially those tied to big institutions, don't help each other out because a fear of lawsuits. Employers don't give meaningful [references](https://careerresumes.com/no-reference-policy), or ever tell ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gziZACDg6EBpGZbJe/almost-everyone-should-be-less-afraid-of-lawsuits |
# Comment on "Deception as Cooperation"
In [this 2019 paper](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369848618301602) published in _Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C_, Manolo Martínez argues that our understanding of how communication works has been grievously impaired by philosophers not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJjRSjmH7NNLJDb6v/comment-on-deception-as-cooperation |
# Tentative Anger
_Epistemic status: Exploratory. Trying to figure it out._
There is a feeling I often find myself feeling. It is an uncomfortable feeling, and the fact that I have trouble labeling it makes the discomfort even worse. I think I may have arrived at a solid label though: tentative anger.
## Examples
L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxZBMJZdszqC3bqhq/tentative-anger |
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