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# Child Walksheds
Roads are the biggest limitation on mobility for our older kids, now that we're using [walkie-talkies](https://www.jefftk.com/p/walkie-talkies). Anna (5y) can't cross the street on her own, because she is not quite reliable enough at checking for cars. For her, the neighborhood is a collection of isl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Xbve2RrwtpuyyQaX/child-walksheds |
# Mental health benefits and downsides of psychedelic use in ACX readers: survey results
Over the last few years, I’ve had a lot of conversations with people in the rationalist and adjacent communities about psychedelic use, mainly focused on potential benefits, potential risks, and good and bad outcomes they’ve seen ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8npC4KRcAJtGdErTq/mental-health-benefits-and-downsides-of-psychedelic-use-in |
# No, really, can "dead" time be salvaged?
About a month ago, [/u/batislu](https://www.reddit.com/user/batislu/) on [/r/SlateStarCodex](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/) posted the question ["How do you spend your "dead" time productively?"](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/pw7j9d/how_do_you_sp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uAmPM2xuqoEstvu8P/no-really-can-dead-time-be-salvaged |
# Book Review: Being You by Anil Seth
Overview
========
Consciousness is "deeply inscribed into the wider patterns of nature."
This book is a good non-technical synopsis on the cutting edge of consciousness research. However, this book offers little new insight. Seth manages to represent all sides of the argument fa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JYsSbtGd2MoGbHdat/book-review-being-you-by-anil-seth |
# Impressive vs honest signaling
_Epistemic status: Musings._
One thing that I am particularly happy with in my life is my girlfriend Alex. Here is the story of how we met.
I was 23 years old and had never had a girlfriend before. Heck, I never even dated. It's not that I wasn't interested. I was less interested tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bv7vjv597PCowLLEy/impressive-vs-honest-signaling |
# X-Risk, Anthropics, & Peter Thiel's Investment Thesis
*This story is cross-posted from my blog,* [*jacksonw.xyz*](https://jacksonw.xyz/)*, and from the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fucn4TDYLCAxLybvL/x-risk-and-peter-thiel-s-optimistic-investment-thesis)*.*
Summary: I analyze an essay by P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3LJynGm8YcJSGD6YG/x-risk-anthropics-and-peter-thiel-s-investment-thesis |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Psychomagic | Chapter 2: The Global Neuronal Workspace
*This is a Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality fan-fiction which contains spoilers. If you haven't, you should* [*read*](http://www.hpmor.com/) *or* [*listen*](https://hpmorpodcast.com/?page_id=56) *to Eliezer Yudkowsky's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FbiwNyBC2W2c4fMzn/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-psychomagic-or-chapter-2-the |
# Hegel vs. GPT-3
> *The good is the idea, or unity of the conception of the will with the particular will. Abstract right, well-being, the subjectivity of consciousness, and the contingency of external reality, are in their independent and separate existences superseded in this unity, although in their real essence t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67QdHTkNxAZvakR9a/hegel-vs-gpt-3 |
# They don't make 'em like they used to
Recently someone on Twitter [posted](https://twitter.com/aIIegoricaI/status/1451671680087175174) a picture like this, commenting that this kind of stove still works after a hundred years, but “thanks to ‘progress’ and ‘improvement’ you have to replace your new one after 5 years.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/objcAvKZKzfCGdedA/they-don-t-make-em-like-they-used-to |
# Ruling Out Everything Else
Clear communication is difficult. Most people, including many of those with thoughts genuinely worth sharing, are not especially good at it.
I am only sometimes good at it, but a major piece of what makes me sometimes good at it is described below in concrete and straightforward terms.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/57sq9qA3wurjres4K/ruling-out-everything-else |
# Selfishness, preference falsification, and AI alignment
If aliens were to try to infer human values, there are a few information sources they could start looking at. One would be individual humans, who would want things on an individual basis. Another would be expressions of collective values, such as Internet pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZddY8BZbvoXHEvDHf/selfishness-preference-falsification-and-ai-alignment |
# Voting for people harms people
So, look, The Culture War totally sucks, right? I mean, really, it more than sucks. I've put it this way before:
The Culture War is The Nothing. (If you're an American ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nX8Q3amibamFypByD/voting-for-people-harms-people |
# An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking at the Port of Long Beach
A miracle occurred this week. Everyone I have talked to about it, myself included, is shocked that it happened. It’s important to
1. Understand what happened.
2. Make sure everyone knows it happened.
3. Understand how and why it happened.
4. U... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RgJicDmXHDxcJ9Fsw/an-unexpected-victory-container-stacking-at-the-port-of-long |
# Covid 10/28: An Unexpected Victory
The story of this week is what went down at the port of Los Angeles. The port had been brought to a standstill, because there was nowhere to put empty containers and trucks were sitting around with empty containers on them instead of moving freight, and the problem kept getting wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qmn9x73zTpqeqRMbH/covid-10-28-an-unexpected-victory-1 |
# Recommending Understand, a Game about Discerning the Rules
I play a lot of video games. Enough to occasionally find a rare gem like the puzzle game [*Understand*](https://store.steampowered.com/app/1299400/Understand/). Its [inspirations](https://store.steampowered.com/news/app/1299400/view/5512953038623978703) incl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/39Ae9JEoGCEkfiegr/recommending-understand-a-game-about-discerning-the-rules |
# [AN #168]: Four technical topics for which Open Phil is soliciting grant proposals
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXj9KSvda6XwNwLrS/an-168-four-technical-topics-for-which-open-phil-is |
# Forecasting progress in language models
*Note:* this post was [cross-posted to Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) over a week ago as part of their new [*Metaculus journal*](https://www.metaculus.com/project/journal/).
Here, I describe a way of measuring the performanc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tepqESMuRmyhtmDS7/forecasting-progress-in-language-models |
# My current thinking on money and low carb diets
_Epistemic status: [Writing to think](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SKQmvZMTY6zQf3Ktc/writing-to-think). Ie. I'm trying to figure it out. Feedback/conversation would be appreciated._
## Background
Recently, I have been learning about low carb diets and how harmful ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qSRk2agYS9i2ybmg/my-current-thinking-on-money-and-low-carb-diets |
# Request for proposals for projects in AI alignment that work with deep learning systems
As part of our work on reducing [potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence-philanthropic-opportunity), Open Philanthropy is seeki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5iePjNKaaYQyZpgR/request-for-proposals-for-projects-in-ai-alignment-that-work |
# Measuring and forecasting risks
*By Jacob Steinhardt, with input from Beth Barnes*
As machine learning pervades more and more sectors of society, it brings with it many benefits, but also poses risks, especially as systems become more powerful and difficult to understand and control. It is important to understand t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7DhwRLoKm4nMrFFsH/measuring-and-forecasting-risks |
# Techniques for enhancing human feedback
*By Ajeya Cotra*
Training powerful models to maximize simple metrics (such as quarterly profits) could be risky. Sufficiently intelligent models could discover strategies for maximizing these metrics in perverse and unintended ways. For example, the easiest way to maximize ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybThg9nA7u6f8qfZZ/techniques-for-enhancing-human-feedback |
# Interpretability
*Chris Olah wrote the following topic prompt for the Open Phil 2021 request for proposals on the alignment of AI systems. We (Asya Bergal and Nick Beckstead) are running the Open Phil RFP and are posting each section as a sequence on the Alignment Forum. Although Chris wrote this document, we didn’t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CzZ6Fch4JSpwCpu6C/interpretability |
# Truthful and honest AI
*By Owain Evans, with input from Jacob Hilton, Dan Hendrycks, Asya Bergal, Owen Cotton-Barratt, and Rohin Shah*
Summary
=======
We would like to see research aimed at creating advanced AI systems that are highly competent and do not lie to humans. To operationalize this goal, we introduce th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sdxZdGFtAwHGFGKhg/truthful-and-honest-ai |
# Leadership
The worst part of being President of the United States is visiting hospitals. What is President Obama supposed to say to a paralyzed infrantryman's pregnant wife? The President's advisors told him he shouldn't visit hospitals because it would misalign the President's priorities. The Commander-in-Chief dis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TygaxGuGcdkLQvqEz/leadership |
# I Really Don't Understand Eliezer Yudkowsky's Position on Consciousness
From [Twitter](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1453544516393205765):
> I'd say that I "don't understand" why the people who worry that chickens are sentient and suffering, don't also worry that GPT-3 is sentient and maybe suffering; but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFbGbTEtHiJnXw5sk/i-really-don-t-understand-eliezer-yudkowsky-s-position-on |
# On the Universal Distribution
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/10/29/on-the-universal-distribution/))
A number of people I know are excited about a type of fundamental prior known as the “Universal Distribution” (UD). In particular, they’re excited about using this prior to addr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiWKmFkpGbDTcsSu4/on-the-universal-distribution |
# A very crude deception eval is already passed
I was thinking about possible evals that would tell us when we're getting to models that are capable of deception. One not-very-good idea I had was just to measure zero-shot understanding of relevant deception scenarios in a language model. I don't think this tells us ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22GrdspteQc8EonMn/a-very-crude-deception-eval-is-already-passed |
# Stuart Russell and Melanie Mitchell on Munk Debates
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant.*
*Epistemic status: Reflections on a debate about AI.*
---
Earlier this year, The Munk Debates podcast organized a [debate between Stuart Russell and Melanie Mitchell](https://www.iheart.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GDnFsyfKedevKHAuJ/stuart-russell-and-melanie-mitchell-on-munk-debates |
# Goodhart's Imperius
*Author's note: this essay was originally written to reflect a class that I was actively teaching and iterating at CFAR workshops circa 2017. While it never made it into the handbook proper, and isn't quite in the same format as the other handbook entries, I've added it to the sequence anyway. H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBKnkx8xvmhGZPdmg/goodhart-s-imperius-1 |
# True Stories of Algorithmic Improvement
In May 2020, OpenAI released [a report](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/) on algorithmic efficiency improvements in deep learning. Main headline:
> Compared to 2012, it now takes 44 times less compute to train a neural network to the level of AlexNet (by contrast, M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RoyG2GwYAwoka47Ht/true-stories-of-algorithmic-improvement |
# [TL;DR] "Training for the New Alpinism" by Steve House and Scott Johnston
# TL;DR
If you're an ultraendurance athlete then you should spend three quarters of your time just below your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m2gkePwqi7fmYKjzu/tl-dr-training-for-the-new-alpinism-by-steve-house-and-scott |
# Naval Ravikant and Chris Dixon Didn't Explain Any Web3 Use Cases
This is a followup to [Chris Dixon's Crypto Claims Are Logically Flimsy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PwPjCxqjcXjWtXmAr/chris-dixon-s-crypto-claims-are-logically-flimsy).
It's becoming popular for thought leaders in the investing and crypto world t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMjeKNwnCwzBzCThm/naval-ravikant-and-chris-dixon-didn-t-explain-any-web3-use |
# Unlock the Door
*Related: [A Pattern Language](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2AWPo7sMsvrrofsM/book-review-a-pattern-language-by-christopher-alexander)*
*Epistemic status: Strong Anecdotal*
I'm designing co-housing/co-living communities. The greatest benefit of living near your friends is that you can see each ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NKovwrK7vrPQfLAxP/unlock-the-door |
# Start with a Title
Some writers start with a title and then write the article. Other writers start with the article and then write a title. The writers who start with a title end up with better titles. The writers who start with a title tend to write better articles too.
Good writing conveys a single point. Titles ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cGcpf8jFWTtGroeJJ/start-with-a-title |
# Tell the Truth
My favorite thing about living in the 21ˢᵗ century is that nobody can stop me from publishing whatever I want.
I mean this in the most literal sense. I can log onto a free blogging platform via Tor and no government in the world could deanonymize me. I might even do this already and there would be no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EMYEFbSr2zqgRLqtE/tell-the-truth |
# We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society
Historically, a normal human population hovered on the edge of starvation.
> It's hard to comprehend how important food staples used to be. In Edo Japan, wealth was measured in koku (石). One koku is (in theory) enough rice to feed one man for one year. The amount of koku a daimyo ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W9rm2xkFxpYCxm5PS/we-live-in-a-post-scarcity-society |
# How Much is a Sweet?
For about two years our system has been that the kids get one sweet before dinner and one sweet after dinner. They like to divide their allocation up ("can I have pancakes with half a sweet of chocolate chips?"), and this has been a good opportunity for [teaching fractions](https://www.jefftk.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2zysyCBRF35n93vyh/how-much-is-a-sweet |
# Quick general thoughts on suffering and consciousness
Below, I've collected some of my thoughts on consciousness. Topics covered (in the post and/or the comments below) include:
* To what extent did subjective pain evolve as a social signal?
* Why did consciousness evolve? What function(s) did it serve?
* Wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TkahaFu3kb6NhZRue/quick-general-thoughts-on-suffering-and-consciousness |
# Why the Problem of the Criterion Matters
I think [the problem of the criterion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xs7ag4gsiA6zspmsD/the-problem-of-the-criterion) is really, really important. So important that I'm willing to risk annoying people by bringing it up all the time. I think it matters because a failure to gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkjpHGiELQzed8hdu/why-the-problem-of-the-criterion-matters |
# Indoor dancing is safe enough
A few weeks ago, before organizing an [outdoor contra dance](https://www.jefftk.com/davis) I used [microcovid](https://www.microcovid.org/) to get an estimate of how risky it was, concluding that it is [likely very safe](https://www.jefftk.com/p/outdoor-dancing-is-likely-very-safe). It'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8tHxTDZyWdpxM5g8M/indoor-dancing-is-safe-enough |
# Both or Nothing
**A response to**: [Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cujpciCqNbawBihhQ/self-integrity-and-the-drowning-child)
**On Internal Integrity**
Eliezer criticises Peter Singer's [The Child in the Pond](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org.au/child-in-the-pond/) thought ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hdW2QHYgbSt5bbTQc/both-or-nothing |
# Resurrecting all humans ever lived as a technical problem
**Note**: the newest version of this essay and its translations to various languages are available [at this link](https://github.com/RomanPlusPlus/technological-resurrection).
* * *
One day, we might be able to bring back to life every human ever lived, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKWhnNty3Hax4B7rR/resurrecting-all-humans-ever-lived-as-a-technical-problem |
# Nate Soares on the Ultimate Newcomb's Problem
Nate Soares's distilled exposition of the [Ultimate Newcomb's Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RAh4fekdiRhZxb2Kw/the-ultimate-newcomb-s-problem), plus a quick analysis of how different decision theories perform, copied over from a recent email exchange (with Nate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F3aESx4JWWEDAFEiH/nate-soares-on-the-ultimate-newcomb-s-problem |
# Feature Selection
You wake up. You don't know where you are. You don't remember anything.
Someone is broadcasting data at your first input stream. You don't know why. It tickles.
You look at your first input stream. It's a sequence of 671,187 eight-bit unsigned integers.
```
0, 8, 9, 4, 7, 7, 9, 5, 4, 5, 6, 1, 7,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYspinGtiba5oDCcv/feature-selection |
# Money Stuff
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/07/25/money-stuff/).
* * *
Vodka and War
-------------
When I was 16 I made the dumbest financial investment of my life. Our family came to live in the US for a few months, and I made $500 giving tennis lessons to the local kids. My individu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igSPcmvTigCHxWt8x/money-stuff |
# Is genetics "dark"?
At the excellent [Integrating Genetics and the Social Sciences](https://cupc.colorado.edu/conferences/IGSS_2021/) conference on Thursday and Friday, a late discussion raised an awkward issue: when you say you study the genetics of behaviour, eyebrows get raised. People don’t always like what we d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEznvqhor59pw6aGY/is-genetics-dark |
# Open & Welcome Thread November 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Su9Xvmz29YibTu2E/open-and-welcome-thread-november-2021 |
# Great-Filter Hard-Step Math, Explained Intuitively
*Crossposted to the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2SDGPdYjKM39iXrrk/great-filter-hard-step-math-explained-intuitively)*.*
**Introduction**
================
The idea of the great filter was [developed](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JdjxcmwM84vqpGHhn/great-filter-hard-step-math-explained-intuitively |
# Effective Evil
Many years ago, a blogger made a post advocating for an evil Y-Combinator which subsidized the opposite of Effective Altruism. Everyone (including the blogger) thought the post was a joke except the supervillains. The organization they founded celebrated its 10th anniversary this year. An attendee lea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjQrRiJeYFFSEfSKX/effective-evil |
# EfficientZero: human ALE sample-efficiency w/MuZero+self-supervised
["Mastering Atari Games with Limited Data"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.00210), Ye et al 2021:
> Reinforcement learning has achieved great success in many applications. However, sample efficiency remains a key challenge, with prominent methods requi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jYNT3Qihn2aAYaaPb/efficientzero-human-ale-sample-efficiency-w-muzero-self |
# Notes on Shame
This post examines the virtue of **shame**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/djMMhtSzLrfSgJAwi/notes-on-shame |
# 2020 PhilPapers Survey Results
In 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers ran the PhilPapers Survey ([results](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=medium), [paper](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP.pdf)), sending questions to "all regular faculty members" at t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTekFwz3rWjsirBbr/2020-philpapers-survey-results |
# [Book Review] "The Bell Curve" by Charles Murray
Factor analysis is a mathematical method of inferring simple correlations between observations. It's the foundation of the Big Five personality traits. It's also behind how we define intelligence.
A person's ability to perform one cognitive task is positively correla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvc2MiZvWgMFaSbhx/book-review-the-bell-curve-by-charles-murray |
# Can homo-sapiens sustain an economy parallel to AI's?
In a world where taxis and trucks drive themselves, code writes itself etc. there's several ways humans can fit into such picture.
Perhaps they'll get rich by owning shares, perhaps UBI will be introduced, perhaps they'll move to jobs higher-in-abstraction-ladd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YveSuCooi2wyZtt69/can-homo-sapiens-sustain-an-economy-parallel-to-ai-s |
# Models Modeling Models
**I - Meanings of words**
Now that we have[ more concrete thinking](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2BPxcFfhKho89D8L/goodhart-ethology) under our belt, it's time to circle back to Goodhart's law for value learners. What sorts of bad behavior are we imagining from future value-learning AI? Wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nA3n2vfCy3ffnjapw/models-modeling-models |
# Vaccine Requirements, Age, and Fairness
In talking about [potentially](https://www.jefftk.com/p/comparing-options-for-safer-events) [resuming](https://www.jefftk.com/p/indoor-dancing-is-safe-enough) contra dancing, with a vaccination requirement, one reaction I've received from several people is that it's not fair t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy74X6GaNcqhxuGTh/vaccine-requirements-age-and-fairness |
# Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.
Highlights
----------
* Polymarket is [being investigated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/crypto-venue-for-bets-on-trump-jlo-and-covid-faces-u-s-probe) by the CFTC
* Metaculus solves long-lasting UX problem: it now allows more expressive distributions.
*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vCBx2wbbCWWjuoCSL/forecasting-newsletter-october-2021 |
# Transcript: "You Should Read HPMOR"
*The following is the script of a talk I gave for some current computer science students at my alma mater,* [*Grinnell College*](https://www.grinnell.edu/)*. This talk answers "What do I wish I had known while at Grinnell?".*
Hi, I'm Alex Turner. I’m honored to be here under Sam’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HL6x8zHo9BkuK3tic/transcript-you-should-read-hpmor |
# What's the difference between newer Atari-playing AI and the older Deepmind one (from 2014)?
My impression was that thing that put Deepmind on the map was an AI that could play multiple Atari games. Lately there's been new Atari-playing AI (both from Deepmind and other companies) that are making the news. Are they d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAzyD2HM3medhfmys/what-s-the-difference-between-newer-atari-playing-ai-and-the |
# Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions
Follow-up to: [An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking in the Port of Long Beach](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/an-unexpected-victory-container-stacking-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/)
My chronicle of how Ryan managed to change the container s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nZvGLddmuFTDGm6aP/paths-forward-scaling-the-sharing-of-information-and-1 |
# Pair debugging
Pair debugging is a staple of applied rationality. Humans aren't really all that smart on their own. Our intelligence is distributed. You don't get very far by thinking by yourself.
Before we start, I'll teach a rationality technique. These techniques can be used explicitly as a structured conversati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/K92j6w7opzrHkQmpQ/pair-debugging |
# Apply to the ML for Alignment Bootcamp (MLAB) in Berkeley [Jan 3 - Jan 22]
We ([Redwood Research](https://www.redwoodresearch.org/) and [Lightcone Infrastructure](https://www.lightconeinfrastructure.com/)) are organizing a bootcamp to bring people interested in AI Alignment up-to-speed with the state of modern ML en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgpDYjTx7DCEgziG5/apply-to-the-ml-for-alignment-bootcamp-mlab-in-berkeley-jan |
# The Opt-Out Clause
*(*[*cross-posted from my blog*](https://raymonddouglas.co.uk/the-opt-out-clause/)*)*
Let me propose a thought experiment with three conditions.
**First**, you're in a simulation, and a really good one at that. Before you went in, the simulators extracted and stored all of your memories, and the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vdzEpiYX4aRqtpPSt/the-opt-out-clause |
# Depositions and Rationality
Reading [this guide on deposition strategy](https://www.lawyerminds.com/effective-deposition-strategy-and-dealing-with-the-evasive-non-cooperative-witness/) I was impressed by how many of the techniques lawyers use on uncooperative witnesses seem like good rationality techniques (a deposi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CueztvRZhCKZ3Byww/depositions-and-rationality |
# Baby Sister Numbers
A few days ago, Lily (7y) told me about some [Nora](https://www.norawise.com)-inspired numbers:
* The largest number is `*Noranoo*`.
* If you try and make any larger number, you still get `*Noranoo*`. For example, `*Noranoo* + 1 = *Noranoo*`, and `*Noranoo* * 2 = *Noranoo*`.
* Ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAunquT8f4ZCGwZqX/baby-sister-numbers |
# Covid 11/4: The After Times
The hope is that the pandemic will be fully and truly over because case counts will be sufficiently low, and vaccination rates sufficiently high, that we can all agree to move on and resume our lives.
The fear is that this will never happen. Either cases will climb back up and be suffici... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MizEibpt95wNpnN2E/covid-11-4-the-after-times-1 |
# Y2K: Successful Practice for AI Alignment
*This is a linkpost for Martyn Thomas's* [*What Really Happened in Y2K*](https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/content.gresham.ac.uk/data/binary/2773/2017-04-04-MartynThomas_Y2K-T.pdf) *and its associated* [*talk recording*](https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/what-re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zvQdgfFEDFQQhDDuS/y2k-successful-practice-for-ai-alignment |
# Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
*Epistemic status: uncertain. I removed most weasel words for clarity, but that doesn't mean I'm very confident. Don’t take this too literally. I'd love to see a cluster analysis to see if there's actually a trend, this is a rough guess.\[1\] I'm interested in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v4nunCfofNo3Ze5bb/disagreeables-and-assessors-two-intellectual-archetypes |
# [External Event] 2022 IEEE International Conference on Assured Autonomy (ICAA) - submission deadline extended
*This is a linkpost for* [*https://iaa.jhu.edu/icaa/*](https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fiaa.jhu.edu%2Ficaa%2F)
This conference may be of interest to some, since the subject matter overlaps ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mpwk5uPTxrCTWH8us/external-event-2022-ieee-international-conference-on-assured |
# Some Remarks on Regulator Theorems No One Asked For
*Epistemological Status: Correct, but lazily written.*
Basically, a while ago John made a post attempting to fix the [Good Regulator Theorem](http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/books/Conant_Ashby.pdf). I've refrained from writing this simply because I know it may come off a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iswjwxv2L7n5Rp52p/some-remarks-on-regulator-theorems-no-one-asked-for |
# Modeling the impact of safety agendas
*This post, which deals with how safety research - that is, technical research agendas aiming to reduce AI existential risk - might impact risks from AI, is part 6 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. In th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7f6gF2kpafCMw6rv/modeling-the-impact-of-safety-agendas |
# Drug addicts and deceptively aligned agents - a comparative analysis
Co-authored by Nadia Mir-Montazeri and Jan Kirchner.
## Addicts and AIs
_A young man, let’s call him Dave_[^1]_, starts consuming different kinds of illegal drugs (mostly heroin) as early as age 14, as a reaction to the divorce of his parents. Ev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFXEG9C5m2X5h2yiq/drug-addicts-and-deceptively-aligned-agents-a-comparative |
# How should we compare neural network representations?
_Cross-posted from the [BAIR Blog](https://bair.berkeley.edu/blog/2021/11/04/similarity/)._
To understand neural networks, researchers often use **similarity metrics** to measure how similar or different two neural networks are to each other. For instance, they ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2qkJ3sKdvXsnDdp6/how-should-we-compare-neural-network-representations |
# Comments on OpenPhil's Interpretability RFP
I'm very excited about research that tries to deeply understand how neural networks are thinking, and especially to understand tiny parts of neural networks without too much concern for scalability, as described in [OpenPhil's recent RFP](https://www.alignmentforum.org/pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oWN9fgYnFYJEWdAs9/comments-on-openphil-s-interpretability-rfp |
# Nightclubs in Heaven?
> I worry primarily about whether there are nightclubs in Heaven.
>
> -Tom Waits
Nightclubs are a strange thing. Loud music, people crammed in amongst one another, they are usually physically uncomfortable. Spending the night in one involves a loss of sleep (and usually loss of one's senses v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EyqGnqJsxoezRFhhq/nightclubs-in-heaven |
# Study Guide
This post is for students who hope to eventually work on technical [problems we don’t understand](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSZnj2YNMKGfsMbZA/specializing-in-problems-we-don-t-understand), especially agency and AI alignment, and want to know what to study or practice.
Guiding Principles
==========... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bjjbp5i5G8bekJuxv/study-guide |
# Concentration of Force
*This essay began as part one of a longer piece. Part one is standalone and "timeless." Part two is focused on the local dynamics of the EA/rationality/longtermist communities and LessWrong in November of 2021. Following wise advice from Zack\_M\_Davis, I've split them into two separate post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rQKstXH8ZMAdN5iqD/concentration-of-force |
# Speaking of Stag Hunts
*This is an essay about the current state of the LessWrong community, and the broader EA/rationalist/longtermist communities that it overlaps and bridges, inspired mostly by the dynamics around* [*these*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kz9zMgWB5C27Pmdkh/common-knowledge-about-leverage-researc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5BP9CxKHkcjA7gLv/speaking-of-stag-hunts |
# CFAR, responsibility and bureaucracy
*Status: I wrote the draft for this article a few months before the more recent discussions. While I'm not sure that I get everything right, I believe that simply publishing my post is better then to keep it in my drawer.*
**Introduction**
CFAR was founded in the spirit of bein... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QNQiQoPusJDijhner/cfar-responsibility-and-bureaucracy |
# Substack Ho?
For a while now, I’ve been unhappy with WordPress. Their new editor is effectively unusable, and I’ve been using first Google Docs and recently LessWrong’s editor to compose new posts.
Last week, I was approached by a representative from Substack who pitched me on moving my blog from WordPress to Subst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u8oThJvwDc2PTfgaJ/substack-ho |
# Chu are you?
[Maybe you've heard about something called a Chu space around here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/2A7rrZ4ySx6R8mfoT/p/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ). But what the heck is a Chu space? And whatever it is, does it *really* belong with all the rich mathematical structures we know and love?
***Update:** No change of location, meetup will be held as announced. ~~**Potential Change of Location Notice:** If the weather is bad, this will instead be held at nearby Ilmarin House. If so I'll update here and email people whose RSVP included an email address on Saturday ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/h42B9BsHdbyTZEEx2/south-bay-lw-pilot-meetup-sunnyvale |
# Using Brain-Computer Interfaces to get more data for AI alignment
The purpose of this post is to sketch some ways that [Brain Computer Interface](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/brain-computer-interfaces) (BCI) technology might help with [various AI alignment techniques](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRsjBseRuvRhMPP... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWv6Pu2fWPKqevzFE/using-brain-computer-interfaces-to-get-more-data-for-ai |
# Highlighting New Comments
Keeping track of which comments you have already read in an online discussion is a pain. It's not too bad in a flat discussion, because you can scroll up to the last comment you remember reading, but in a threaded discussion it's really easy to miss things. Sites can solve this by highlight... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gcf9DGsJGXnhBDkqh/highlighting-new-comments |
# D&D.Sci Dungeoncrawling: The Crown of Command
STORY (skippable)
=================
Across the world adventurers dive into tombs, mausoleums, and sunken cities in search of treasure. They clear out orcish keeps, goblin camps and dragon lairs to keep the people safe. And they meet with lords who wish to hire them to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boLvvZiRazNqipup7/d-and-d-sci-dungeoncrawling-the-crown-of-command |
# There Meat Come A Scandal...
#### Archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20211107204618/https://www.thinkingmuchbetter.com/main/there-meat-come-a-scandal/).
There are multiple companies working on the problem of [lab-grown meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) (aka "cultured meat"). Superm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uA5iD7NC37kKP4NMC/there-meat-come-a-scandal |
# How much of the supply-chain issues are due to monetary policy?
The most common explanation I hear for supply chain issues in the economy in the US and Europe is that COVID-19 lockdown measures messed with the supply chains.
On the other hand there seems to be a story of demand for some products having risen. How ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QNqoaecht7LdmAN4j/how-much-of-the-supply-chain-issues-are-due-to-monetary |
# Transcript for Geoff Anders and Anna Salamon's Oct. 23 conversation
Geoff Anders of Leverage and Anna Salamon of CFAR had a conversation on [Geoff's Twitch channel](https://www.twitch.tv/geoffanders) on October 23, triggered by Zoe Curzi's [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XPwEptSSFRCnfHqFk/zoe-curzi-s-experien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wfTCAxjPhmFs7qLyD/transcript-for-geoff-anders-and-anna-salamon-s-oct-23 |
# What are red flags for Neural Network suffering?
Epistemic status: High uncertainty; This is exploratory work; Our goal is to provide possible research directions rather than offering solutions.
This is shared work. Most of the part on neural correlates is by [Jan](https://universalprior.substack.com/). Most of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bpw2HXjMa3GaouDnC/what-are-red-flags-for-neural-network-suffering |
# Worth checking your stock trading skills
I started trading equities (and equity derivatives) full time last year, without any prior training or experience, beyond some basic economics and finance courses that I took in college many years ago. I figured things out as I went by making a lot of mistakes, and listening ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZxEw2kC4WjTMo8heB/worth-checking-your-stock-trading-skills |
# Excerpts from Veyne's "Did the Greeks Believe in Their Myths?"
"Did the Greeks Believe in Their Myths?" is a long 1983 essay by Paul Veyne, a French archaeologist/historian. The following post (written by me in 2011) consists of excerpts of the essay that I found particularly interesting when I read it.
Topics Veyn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A8AyYHFNPJAYJ2Q2D/excerpts-from-veyne-s-did-the-greeks-believe-in-their-myths |
# Steelman solitaire: how to take playing devil's advocate to the next level
[*This is an old post of mine from The Nonlinear blog*](https://www.nonlinear.org/blog/how-to-come-to-better-conclusions-by-playing-steelman-solitaire) *that I thought really belonged on LessWrong.*
I have a tool for thinking that I call “st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/req5rnPrW89tBg3vb/steelman-solitaire-how-to-take-playing-devil-s-advocate-to |
# How do we become confident in the safety of a machine learning system?
_Thanks to Rohin Shah, Ajeya Cotra, Richard Ngo, Paul Christiano, Jon Uesato, Kate Woolverton, Beth Barnes, and William Saunders for helpful comments and feedback._
Evaluating proposals for building safe advanced AI—and actually building any deg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FDJnZt8Ks2djouQTZ/how-do-we-become-confident-in-the-safety-of-a-machine |
# ACX/SSC/LW Meetup
Come join a group of people who want to approach complex topics with compassion, nuance and mindfulness.
Because this one is indoors and on private property, I (Sean) will be checking vaccine proof at the door and won't be letting anyone in who hasn't RSVPed. This rigorous vetting and literal gat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/yyFcnrC3YuD3BH6rS/acx-ssc-lw-meetup |
# Possible research directions to improve the mechanistic explanation of neural networks
Why I like the Circuits approach
================================
In early 2020 I skimmed through the neural network explainability literature which was already quite massive at that time. I was left quite discouraged about the u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HiutLvY2x7zrsTQkx/possible-research-directions-to-improve-the-mechanistic |
# Is there a clearly laid-out write-up of the case to drop Covid precautions?
Some people are advocating dropping all or most Covid precautions within the rationalist community beyond requiring vaccines. I haven't seen the case for this explicitly laid out anywhere, though. Is there such a write-up anywhere? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ye4Mvvd2KZsKmL9C4/is-there-a-clearly-laid-out-write-up-of-the-case-to-drop |
# In Defence of Optimizing Routine Tasks
People often quantify whether an optimization to a routine task is worth it by looking at the net amount of time saved. This mindset is exemplified by this oft-cited xkcd:
[https://xkcd.com/1205/]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJffzWaCQcvB3gRJa/in-defence-of-optimizing-routine-tasks |
# Where did the 5 micron number come from? Nowhere good. [Wired.com]
This article describe's a scientist's attempt to figure out where the 5 micron number, and general belief that most respiratory diseases weren't airborne, came from. She eventually traces it back to a particular number developed for a very different ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kMdRnWGvrQHviPBRy/where-did-the-5-micron-number-come-from-nowhere-good-wired |
# Arguments in parallel vs arguments in series
When arguments are delivered in parallel, their combined strength is no less than the strength of the strongest argument. For example, you might encounter two different people arguing in favor of the same position, one giving an argument that you can easily see doesn't wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b4vJLFbyMA8FSZnLG/arguments-in-parallel-vs-arguments-in-series |
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