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# What’s Up With the CDC Nowcast?
[How’s it going?](https://twitter.com/BantshireUni/status/1472192658797903881)
[ by Kevin Simler on Melting Asphalt. It contrasts a couple of different mechanisms by which advertising might work, including:
* Emotional inception - manipulating your feelings to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KHN9sDzQkgs7egED3/random-facts-can-come-back-to-bite-you |
# DnD.Sci GURPS Evaluation and Ruleset
Data Generation
===============
The World
---------
The world has five locations. I loosely imagined the Thunderwood Peaks as a northern mountainous region, the Lordsteppes as a plateau in the west, the Miresmouth Forests as a southern marsh, the Scorchsand Shores as an eastern... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ie7PTxxPH3Rd5Me93/dnd-sci-gurps-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Help figuring out my sexuality?
(Not sure if this is really a "lesswrong thing", but this seemed like as good a place as any for something like this).
I'm a late-twenties male, have only had one (female) sexual partner. For reasons, we never successfully had regular, vaginal sex. I've been single for the past 4 yea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jYqfL4S8Xy4LLQAQ3/help-figuring-out-my-sexuality |
# Transformer Circuits
[Chris Olah](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/christopher-olah), [Neel Nanda](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/neel-nanda-1), [Catherine Olsson](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/catherio), Nelson Elhage, and a bunch of other people at [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/) just published... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2269iGRnWruLHsZ5r/transformer-circuits |
# What time in your life were you the most productive at learning and/or thinking and why?
Example answers include “high school math camp, because we were forced to do X and because there was an atmosphere of amicable competition” or “that day when I locked myself in a room with a textbook” or “the day when I studied ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N3vCJSkMQAhazyh9y/what-time-in-your-life-were-you-the-most-productive-at |
# A spreadsheet/template for doing an annual review
*\[Sharing this as a forum post because it may be useful for some forum users - mostly a copy and paste of a social media post\]*
🤔 Are you looking for a way to review your year and plan for the future?
Many people I know do an "annual review".
When I started in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7J5tz6EhqWPLyn6GT/a-spreadsheet-template-for-doing-an-annual-review |
# Gifts
Fiction, not necessarily appropriate for LW, but I thought some here might find it funny and it's the off-season when less serious reading is happening anyway. If it seems inappropriate I would not mind a mod-delete on this one.
***He could see the alien’s ship landing. Its design marked it with high probabi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9cvyTsBBLQbdXtNF/gifts |
# Hedging the Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine
Assume that you know with a high degree of confidence that Russia will invade Ukraine in February 2022.
Also assume that you have an investment portfolio invested 100% in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index).
You think that if Russia invades Ukraine, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEsqKFabffwKXAPso/hedging-the-possibility-of-russia-invading-ukraine |
# Worst-case thinking in AI alignment
**Alternative title: “When should you assume that what could go wrong, will go wrong?”**
Thanks to Mary Phuong and Ryan Greenblatt for helpful suggestions and discussion, and Akash Wasil for some edits.
In discussions of AI safety, people often propose the assumption that someth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTvBSFrXhZfL8vr5a/worst-case-thinking-in-ai-alignment |
# Specialization
Multiple LW and EA voices ([1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xJyAqPAa93DJbSQz/six-specializations-makes-you-world-class), [2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/being-the-pareto-best-in-the-world), [3](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/holden-karnofsky-building-aptitudes-kickin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/49QkKeKWtzeB7wmqS/specialization |
# [Book Review] "The Most Powerful Idea in the World" by William Rosen
The first nuclear bomb had a immediate impact on world affairs. The first steam engine did not. It took decades for the steam engine to transform civilization.
Why? Because of math.
The engineers at the Manhattan Project built a working nuclear d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9hRyGD72gEAAMGdzF/book-review-the-most-powerful-idea-in-the-world-by-william |
# Testing, Testing, Hopefully
[ProPublica came out this week](https://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it) with the best write-up so far of the full extent to which the FDA has been fighting to prevent us from having access to Covi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tpecimBtPWbZFejX/testing-testing-hopefully |
# 2021 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison
*cross-posted to the EA forum* [*here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BNQMyWGCNWDdP2WyG/2021-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison)*.*
**Introduction**
================
As in [2016](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C4tR3BEpuWviT7Sje/2021-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison |
# Get Set, Also Go
Paxlovid no longer illegal. Excellent. Alas, production will take a while to scale, and right now there are other more pressing concerns.
I thought this week’s headline would be divided over two weeks, but life comes at you fast when cases double every two days instead of every three. I’ve already ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aWcmhuxNmPQ4NcZ5a/get-set-also-go |
# Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors
The ["biological anchors" method for forecasting transformative AI](https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/) is the biggest non-[trust-based](https://www.cold-takes.com/minimal-trust-investigations/#navigating-trust)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nNqXfnjiezYukiMJi/reply-to-eliezer-on-biological-anchors |
# Omicron Post #9
For non-Omicron Covid news (and some additional Omicron news) this week, [see the weekly post](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/covid-1222-get-set-also-go), [the post on testing](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/testing-testing-hopefully), and the [post on the CDC nowcast](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBB9yZNJuz5j8hLdP/omicron-post-9 |
# Prioritizing Information
So far, we've focused on individual skills involved in a forecast: [extrapolating trends](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/forecasting-zeroth-and-first-order/), employing [reference classes](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/base-rates-and-reference-classes/), how to [combine estimates](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DtTrGWoamG7qJMGxB/prioritizing-information |
# Risks from AI persuasion
A case for why persuasive AI might pose risks somewhat distinct from the normal power-seeking alignment failure scenarios.
Where I'm currently at: I feel moderately confident that powerful persuasion is useful to think about for understanding AI x-risk, but unsure whether it's best regarded... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5cWtwATHL6KyzChck/risks-from-ai-persuasion |
# Mechanistic Interpretability for the MLP Layers (rough early thoughts)
This post is a link to a video I just made in response to the new work coming out of Anthropic described [here](https://transformer-circuits.pub/) and [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3NQaDR3xI4&list=PLoyGOS2WIonajhAVqKUgEMNmeq3nEeM51) and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBFTFMsuaSJX4vCj9/mechanistic-interpretability-for-the-mlp-layers-rough-early |
# Prerequisite Skills
Learning is a process of trial and error. You try something. It fails. You identify what went wrong. You try something else.
Learning progresses quickly when you can reliably identify what went wrong. The best way to guarantee you'll know what you did wrong is to isolate a single variable. Start... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fhq9nsBuHZmfat693/prerequisite-skills |
# How to select a long-term goal and align my mind towards it?
I have been struggling with goal selection lately. I didn't struggle so much earlier in my life because others clearly defined my goals. We live in a high-dimensional world, as said elsewhere on LessWrong. There are many worthy directions to head towards, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jBAN8ErtYnS7CC929/how-to-select-a-long-term-goal-and-align-my-mind-towards-it |
# Understanding the tensor product formulation in Transformer Circuits
I was trying to understand the [tensor product formulation](https://transformer-circuits.pub/2021/framework/index.html#architecture-attn-as-movement) in transformer circuits and I had basically forgotten all I ever knew about tensor products, if I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a3LEEh8oKR9E2FH7B/understanding-the-tensor-product-formulation-in-transformer |
# Converging toward a Million Worlds
Epistemic status: unfleshed thought that’s been brewing in my mind recently, but feels like it might be important. At the very least, I'm hoping to get pointers to writings and conversations that might've already transpired on this topic.
Inspired by recent trends in social media... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZLKcPzpJvoxxFewL/converging-toward-a-million-worlds |
# What is a probabilistic physical theory?
This is a question I asked on Physics Stack Exchange a while back, and I thought it would be interesting to hear people's thoughts on it here. You can find the original question [here](https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/558278/what-is-a-probabilistic-physical-theory)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4o7LkKhMZxgSDZa6/what-is-a-probabilistic-physical-theory |
# My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: Threat Models
_This is the second post in a sequence mapping out the AI Alignment research landscape. The sequence will likely never be completed, but you can read a draft [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X3XyS6CtZShwaJHMxQBvgKPUs7qlt74WxhmNnSDesXE/edit)._
_**Dis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3DFBbPFZyscrAiTKS/my-overview-of-the-ai-alignment-landscape-threat-models |
# Why don't governments seem to mind that companies are explicitly trying to make AGIs?
*Epistemic Status: Quickly written, uncertain. I'm fairly sure there's very little in terms of the public or government concerned about AGI claims, but I'm sure there's a lot I'm missing. I'm not at all an expert on government or p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbjeShykGbTwFsiMu/why-don-t-governments-seem-to-mind-that-companies-are |
# Merry Christmas
This year I was robbed at gunpoint for the first time. Most importantly, I wasn't shot. I don't think my assailants ran a careful calculation about whether it was in their interest to shoot me or know. I think they just preferred not to execute me unless they had to. True psychopaths are rare. I am g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KEhM7TzyuNTN7TEun/merry-christmas |
# Internet Literacy Atrophy
It’s the holidays, which means it’s also “teach technology to your elderly relatives” season. Most of my elderly relatives are pretty smart, and were technically advanced in their day. Some were engineers or coders back when that was rare. When I was a kid they were often early adopters of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AzKx6EjaoaMuk595v/internet-literacy-atrophy |
# The Debtor's Revolt
Ben Hoffman describes the transition from a old world order to a debtor-aristocracy world order.
Consider a standard microeconomics model, where profits are good and debts represent some loss of that profit in interest; individual actions are taken based on whether they will be return more than ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/teqPQPvGYLDLPF6io/the-debtor-s-revolt |
# San Francisco shares COVID data only when it's too late
In the early months of the pandemic, San Francisco posted case and death counts on a daily basis. It was sometimes messy with significant corrections, but the city did the best they could (or at least better than most) to keep the public informed.
Around half ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X67LHTZ6ZbbQWkZJc/san-francisco-shares-covid-data-only-when-it-s-too-late |
# An interview with Danica Remy on protecting the Earth from asteroids.
Danica Remy is the President of the B612 Foundation, an organization dedicated to protecting Earth from asteroid impacts, [and we recently interviewed her on the Futurati Podcast. ](https://futuratipodcast.com/ep-66-danica-remy-on-protecting-the-e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eRk3yYGLYTPCrGHgf/an-interview-with-danica-remy-on-protecting-the-earth-from |
# Reinforcement Learning Study Group
Hey everyone,
my name is Kay. I'm new to the forum and I came here with a specific goal in mind:
>
> I'm putting together a crew for a **reinforcement learning study group.**
Main objectives:
-----------------
* **Mathematical Foundations**: We will work through key pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpDoFYCrKdFqvjfpT/reinforcement-learning-study-group |
# On Stateless Societies
Acemoglu & Robinson in their book [The Narrow Corridor](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52884091-the-narrow-corridor) use [Tiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiv_people) people as an example of a stateless society.
The statelessness among Tiv was achieved by penalizing or eliminating thos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WqfhJzeE6MraedoJP/on-stateless-societies |
# Conversation as path traversal
Suppose Alice and Bob have a conversation. Alice begins by saing "Hi Bob, how are you?" And Bob responds by saying "I'm good. I saw the new Matrix movie yesterday. Have you seen the originals?"
Here is Alice initiating the conversation.
On my [uni group's](https://campusgroups.rit.edu/effalt/about/) Discord, we have a running joke: "If the world ended tomorrow, it'd be out of the news cycle in a week". Adam McKay's *Don't Look Up* takes this joke completely literally, and the results are actually pretty funny.
## The re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwNpc5ka5nk9vx7xE/don-t-look-up-film-review |
# AI Fire Alarm Scenarios
I\'ve been pondering whether we\'ll get any [further
warnings](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLKKH9CM6NDiJBabC/what-are-the-most-plausible-ai-safety-warning-shot-scenarios)
about when AI(s) will exceed human levels at general-purpose tasks, and
that doing so would entail enough risk that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GspepepmD8RRdfiuo/ai-fire-alarm-scenarios |
# [Book Review] "Suffering-focused Ethics" by Magnus Vinding
(**UPDATED DECEMBER 2021)**
Magnus Vinding’s [“Suffering-Focused Ethics”](https://magnusvinding.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/suffering-focused-ethics.pdf) is a heartfelt, yet occasionally overreaching work laying out a case for why we should focus primarily ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Eq2GmtPBaNyfQhqpP/book-review-suffering-focused-ethics-by-magnus-vinding |
# Solstice Quaker Darkness Circling
This year I did a small "Darkness [Solstice](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/secular-solstice)" in the woods (i.e. basically got up to the moment of darkness, and then instead of having an uplifting third act we just sorta sat in the darkness for awhile).
"Darkness Solstice" probabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KHRiicR2ukvzzx9se/solstice-quaker-darkness-circling |
# Ten Minutes with Sam Altman
"Do you believe in the American Dream?" my brother asked.
I looked out the airplane window. Y-Combinator (YC) had paid for our tickets. Our application had been good enough to qualify us for a ten-minute interview in Silicon Valley. If we passed the interview we'd receive $120k in fundin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LZn9asbnJHAJsGPA6/ten-minutes-with-sam-altman |
# More accurate models can be worse
*TL;DR - A model that has more information* in total *might have less information* about the things you care about*, making it less useful in practice. This can hold even if averaging over all possible things one might care about.*
Suppose we want to create an agent AI - that is, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YC98pMpkK5sNpsJKK/more-accurate-models-can-be-worse |
# Omicron: My Current Model
A year and a half ago, I wrote a post called [Covid-19: My Current Model](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/covid-19-my-current-model/). Since then things have often changed, and we have learned a lot. It seems like high time for a new post of this type.
Note that this post mostly do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFhhDCxz87yKwqYQf/omicron-my-current-model |
# Why is Covid Surveillance so Hard?
# Why is Covid Surveillance so Hard?
Following up on a [recent thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X67LHTZ6ZbbQWkZJc), I want to discuss how Covid case numbers are generated. I think this is interesting not only because Covid is interesting, but because it’s a good example of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dkciJTTR4oZsixfPN/why-is-covid-surveillance-so-hard |
# Omicron Post #10
Reporting in the wake of Christmas remains spotty, but this fog of war was anticipated, and we must do what we can with what we do know. Mostly, what we’ve learned reinforces the picture outlined in [Post #9](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/omicron-post-9/), with reduced severity. Also with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rKzqF49vZiMSqSh8j/omicron-post-10 |
# Gradient Hacking via Schelling Goals
*Thanks to several people for useful discussion, including Evan Hubinger, Leo Gao, Beth Barnes, Richard Ngo, William Saunders, Daniel Ziegler, and probably others -- let me know if I'm leaving you out.*
See also: [Obstacles to Gradient Hacking](https://www.alignmentforum.org/pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A9eAPjpFjPwNW2rku/gradient-hacking-via-schelling-goals |
# A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
On some level, in order to understand the society they live in, most people have to be conspiracy theorists. Forming correct conspiracy theories is a critical and essential part of understanding politics, international relations, and the justice system. Genuine conspiraci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hurF9uFGkJYXzpHEE/a-non-magical-explanation-of-jeffrey-epstein |
# Should I blog on LessWrong?
This is my first post here. I would like feedback on my decision of signing up to LessWrong with the idea of writing here occasionally. I explain my reasoning below, but first, for context, here is a brief intro about me:
I am not sure if I consider myself a rationalist or part of the ra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pJmZvxxLJKhDiHCuw/should-i-blog-on-lesswrong |
# What would you like from Microcovid.org? How valuable would it be to you?
[Microcovid.org](http://microcovid.org) was a vital tool to many of us during the pandemic- I made [a whole speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2LSu00YLs0) about it back at summer solstice. The back and forth over how finished covid is, p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v8h7Sm7CCkhPobvLA/what-would-you-like-from-microcovid-org-how-valuable-would |
# Does Braess's paradox show up in markets?
[Braess's paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27s_paradox) shows that in some cases, adding roads can make everyone's commute longer. (Pause here if you want to figure out on your own how that might be possible. The general situation is that everyone just tries ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5PgGab9cKwK8wia7p/does-braess-s-paradox-show-up-in-markets |
# CDC Changes Isolation Guidelines
The CDC has changed its isolation guidelines.
Previously, if you tested positive for Covid, you needed to isolate for ten days. Now you only need to isolate for five. [The official announcement is here.](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.htm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGvYtExLobWz2RixS/cdc-changes-isolation-guidelines |
# What are the pros and cons of seeking a formal diagnosis of autism?
I suspect myself to be borderline autistic, and while I can function in society, I might have a diagnosable condition. (More details below.) Is it in my interest to seek diagnosis? I believe many viewers and commenters on this site are in similar si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xayJRCCmg76qngJQ/what-are-the-pros-and-cons-of-seeking-a-formal-diagnosis-of |
# COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science
You live in a roughly Dunbar-sized group. This does not mean that you live in a small village, but it *does* mean that your actual personal contacts, the number of people that you have direct social contact with, is about one hundred. One day, a respiratory illness starts to circ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b6HYxnxAhLeWHGCgG/covid-skepticism-isn-t-about-science |
# Increased Availability and Willingness for Deployment of Resources for Effective Altruism and Long-Termism
In the last few months, there have been several indicators of a dramatic increase of resources available from a number of organizations in effective altruism, in particular for the focus area of EA community/in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ua8duo9GgousPoreQ/increased-availability-and-willingness-for-deployment-of |
# Questions about Stocker's DIY vaccine
I'll quote a snippet from user fluffyclouds on johnswentworth's original "Making Vaccine" post:
> "There is another Covid-19 peptide vaccine developed by a Dr. Winfried Stöcker. He injected it into ≥64 volunteers, and the [results he published](https://www.winfried-stoecker.de/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/or3BLumBgKjnKEbzK/questions-about-stocker-s-diy-vaccine |
# Walkthrough: Filing a UK self-assessment tax return
I'm writing this guide for a few reasons. For one, it might be useful to someone, possibly me in future. For two, if I make a mistake, someone might call me out on it and then I can correct it. And for three, it gives me a venue to complain about things I think are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ZNHubWn2ANErrzjG/walkthrough-filing-a-uk-self-assessment-tax-return |
# Reverse-engineering using interpretability
Building a model for which you're confident your interpretability is correct, by reverse-engineering each part of the model to work how your interpretability says it should work. (Based on discussion in alignment reading group, ideas from William, Adam, dmz, Evan, Leo, mayb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qrn2dRSwNratuM3tq/reverse-engineering-using-interpretability |
# A Summary Of Anthropic's First Paper
*"Larger models tend to perform better at most tasks, and there is no reason to expect naive alignment-related tasks to be an exception."*
At the start of December, [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/) published their first paper, [A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oBpebs5j5ngs3EXr5/a-summary-of-anthropic-s-first-paper-3 |
# How to not renege prosocially, prosocially
I just discovered Duncan's post on [Reneging Prosocially](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sjRG35aq5fosJ6mdG/reneging-prosocially) and I appreciated the work it did putting a focus on predictability, transparency, and care for others. It inspired me to write up my thoughts o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m72hzoMhFc5Arecnn/how-to-not-renege-prosocially-prosocially |
# We need a theory of anthropic measure binding
Let's consider a scenario.
You've become aware that there exists a pair of brains, and that you are one of them, but you can't tell which. There are practical reasons you would really like to know: Each of the brains are destined for a different fate, they must do diffe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gx6GEnpLkTXn3NFSS/we-need-a-theory-of-anthropic-measure-binding |
# Community Skill Building for Solstice
Part of the reason the Bay solstice-program is setup up roughly the same way each year is because doing anything different requires a bunch of skills our community doesn't have much access to.
Building new skills (among enough community folk to reliably have it available for s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x4ybrQDRmWGZivd2v/community-skill-building-for-solstice |
# The Machine that Broke My Heart
Obesity is one of the world's greatest health problems. It contributes to everything from diabetes to cancer. Obesity is hard to prevent because tracking calories requires effort. It's too easy to eat absent-mindedly if you're a middle-aged woman in charge of your household's food. Ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PrSWKSFxEtFBZ7Xbj/the-machine-that-broke-my-heart |
# Eliciting Latent Knowledge Via Hypothetical Sensors
This is a response to [ARC's first technical report: Eliciting Latent Knowledge](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge). But it should be fairly understandable even if you didn't read ARC's report... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H7v5yyXAmmgu9DJmi/eliciting-latent-knowledge-via-hypothetical-sensors |
# Covid 12/30: Infinity War
The new year is about to start out with a bang.
For five weeks, we’ve seen Omicron double and double again. That which can’t go on forever, won’t. There aren’t many doublings left. This is it.
[The CDC’s revised guidelines](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/29/cdc-changes-isolation-gui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3sJKgLMYvDSegzYh/covid-12-30-infinity-war |
# Personal Response to Omicron
Throughout the pandemic, our household has been on the careful end. We started preparing in [February 2020](https://www.jefftk.com/p/quarantine-preparations), isolated thoroughly from [March](https://www.jefftk.com/p/stepping-up-isolation) to [July](https://www.jefftk.com/p/partially-ste... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKPMynhw3MSmxpC3m/personal-response-to-omicron |
# The Genetics of Space Amazons
If you wanted to colonize other planets with meat suite humans, then females are the superior choice as they have lower nutritional needs. Here I imagine a fictional Amazon gene that could lead to a skewed sex ratio favoring females.
### Background
* Human Females need less food than... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmXrKHZRQ3jsc9pER/the-genetics-of-space-amazons |
# From Considerations to Probabilities
The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases, the current number of Omicron cases, and the seasonality. In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bcTsNspb2HSYDPJSh/from-considerations-to-probabilities |
# Omicron Post #11
The traditional action for New Year’s Eve is to go to a party, stay up until midnight and watch the bell drop, and the traditional song is Auld Lang Syne.
I’ve stopped doing any of these things.
My traditional action is now to watch a bunch of great college football games that are the cumulation o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajn4Hy79xuyYpiz48/omicron-post-11 |
# D&D.Sci Holiday Special: How the Grinch Pessimized Christmas
STORY (skippable)
=================
Every Who down in Whoville enjoys Christmas Day
But you are the Grinch! And whatever they say
You HATE Christmas Day, with those terrible lights
(They shine into your eyes, and they shine much too bright)
You HATE ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cma9jQqvL29et8AeY/d-and-d-sci-holiday-special-how-the-grinch-pessimized |
# Counterexamples to some ELK proposals
(*This post was written as part of my work at the* [*Alignment Research Center*](https://alignment.org/)*.*)
In this post I’ll describe some possible approaches to eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) not discussed in [our report](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1WwsnJQstPq9... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FnZws8NuKw6BJzmvZ/counterexamples-to-some-elk-proposals |
# This Year I Tried To Teach Myself Math. How Did It Go?
Cross-posted from my [substack](https://autodidactsrefuge.substack.com/p/this-year-i-tried-to-teach-myself)
Summary:
--------
This goes over a year of self teaching, the topics of math I was able to learn, how I view the best way to learn math and what my gene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9RCfdd7pZw4ECpPW/this-year-i-tried-to-teach-myself-math-how-did-it-go |
# $1000 USD prize - Circular Dependency of Counterfactuals
**Congrats to the winner TailCalled with their post** [**Some thoughts on "The Nature of Counterfactuals"**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euDWQDKRwMkdrpfGr/some-thoughts-on-the-nature-of-counterfactuals)**. See the** [**winner announcement post**](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gzw6FwPD9FeL4GTWC/usd1000-usd-prize-circular-dependency-of-counterfactuals |
# Genetics: It sometimes skips a generation is a terrible explanation!
**Question**: "How come your son Jimmie isn't colorblind when his father is"
**Wrong answer**: "It some times skips a generations, maybe his kids will inherent it"
**Right Answer**: "it's on the X chromosome, he got his fathers Y chromosome, so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tj86fT9KhvaRQ9sBn/genetics-it-sometimes-skips-a-generation-is-a-terrible |
# Careful With Trailing Averages
With covid, it is common for people to look at seven day trailing averages. For example, the [MA Covid Dashboard](https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting) has "the seven day average of percent positivity is 18.42%". While this isn't exactly wrong, it's not a good ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kr2Mja4sd9Jjz9wxv/careful-with-trailing-averages |
# What are sane reasons that Covid data is treated as reliable?
I feel like this is one of those questions that's somehow too basic to ask. Or maybe too political. Like wondering this stuff implies I'm siding with something.
I'd really like to just set all the politics aside, simply name my ignorance, and hear some t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajHBujvstNYH7pykq/what-are-sane-reasons-that-covid-data-is-treated-as-reliable |
# New Year's Prediction Thread (2022)
This is a thread for anyone to post predictions for 2022.
(Inspired by similar threads LW has done in the past, and also by [Scott Alexander's yearly tradition](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) and by [Miles Brundage](https://twitter.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZFQDYiYdujiyZva89/new-year-s-prediction-thread-2022 |
# We Choose To Align AI
*Epistemic status: poetry*
> "We choose to go to the moon! We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because *that* goal will serve to organize the best of our skills and energies. Because *that* challenge is one w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BseaxjsiDPKvGtDrm/we-choose-to-align-ai |
# Self-Organised Neural Networks:
A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence
The piece of code bellow is indisputable, reproducible, proof of what we are going to say in this post.
It implements a basic spiking neural network, with a simple learning method that introduces a new paradigm.
The accuracy reache... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rCP5iTYLtfcoC8NXd/self-organised-neural-networks-a-simple-natural-and |
# Regularization Causes Modularity Causes Generalization
_Epistemic Status: Exploratory_
## Things That Cause Modularity In Neural Networks
__Modularity__ is when a neural network can be easily split into several modules: groups of neurons that connect strongly with each other, but have weaker connections to outside... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ehy3rNfHPpqBNeMwg/regularization-causes-modularity-causes-generalization |
# What is a Counterfactual: An Elementary Introduction to the Causal Hierarchy
*This is adapted from a segment of a talk I gave last year, primarily the portion at 6:09:00-6:11:00 of* [*this stream*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulGv9OpJvgQ)*. The example in this article originates from my paper "*[*A Language for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vuvS2nkxn3ftyZSjz/what-is-a-counterfactual-an-elementary-introduction-to-the |
# What explains the excess mortality?
We were talking about the point of our COVID-19 policies being about preventing deaths. We now see from [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-covid?country=MEX~PER~FRA~BRA~USA~GBR~BGR~ISR~AUS) that different countries had very dif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtGjemYRo7JhHzjkA/what-explains-the-excess-mortality |
# Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
Last year, I looked at [Scott's forecasts for 2021](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDQ0NjYyMiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU2NTM4NDcsIl8iOiJORHJFVSIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTQ3OTE2MSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5NDgyNzYxLCJpc3MiOiJwd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A7yccktTp8LDjSizp/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-market-prices-resolution |
# Lateral Thinking (AI safety HPMOR fanfic)
([Source material](http://www.hpmor.com/chapter/16))
"Now leave your books and loose items at your desks – they will be safe, the screens will watch over them for you – and come down onto this platform. It's time to play a game called Who's the Most Promising Student in the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9CaGE9Mt8eYNysfxP/lateral-thinking-ai-safety-hpmor-fanfic |
# Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!]
Experiment: Reaction-Ballot Voting
----------------------------------
**This open thread is using an new experimental voting system: reaction-ballot voting.**
In addition to voting on a comment's overall quality, you can also vote separately on a number of axes, and apply... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ywpWMnJmqAkeaDtne/open-thread-jan-2022-vote-experiment |
# Reader-generated Essays
### 1.
An essay is made up of two layers: the ideas, and the language in which they are expressed. *The story of Red Riding Hood*, and the words of a particular retelling of that story. *The idea of a fully programmable blockchain*, and the language that Vitalik Buterin used to carry that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZtMsyMP5F7zzP8Gvc/reader-generated-essays |
# How an alien theory of mind might be unlearnable
**EDIT**: *This is a post about an alien mind being unlearnable in practice. As a reminder, theory of mind is unlearnable in theory, as stated [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) - there is more information in "preferences + (ir)rationality" than there is in "beh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kMJxwCZ4mc9w4ezbs/how-an-alien-theory-of-mind-might-be-unlearnable |
# Shadows Of The Coming Race (1879)
I recently came across the short essay below by George Eliot, the male pen name of Victorian author [Mary Ann Evans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Eliot). It's quite remarkable in its prescience of current AI debates, particularly how long the "servant-master" relationship ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/goANJNFBZrgE9PFNk/shadows-of-the-coming-race-1879 |
# Causality and determinism in social science - An investigation using Pearl's causal ladder
*This is a link post for* [*a Substack post I made*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/causality-and-determinism-in-social)*, which itself is a remaster of set of messages I sent in another forum, because I thought it was impo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mgA5JQnNeJGJoRaEJ/causality-and-determinism-in-social-science-an-investigation |
# Prizes for ELK proposals
**We are no longer accepting submissions. We'll get in touch with winners and make a post about winning proposals sometime in the next month.**
[ARC](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/) recently released a technical report on [eliciting latent knowledge](https://docs.google.com/document/u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals |
# Apply for research internships at ARC!
**(Update: we are no longer accepting applications for interns.)**
In addition to [hiring full-time researchers](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/dLoK6KGcHAoudtwdo/arc-is-hiring), ARC is also hiring for 1-3 month internships. We’re open to interns for summer 2022 in partic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRsxztzkTzScFQfDW/apply-for-research-internships-at-arc |
# An Observation of Vavilov Day
Content note: this post contains discussion of starvation.
I aspire to be a person who does good things, and who is capable of doing hard things in service of that. This is a plan to test that capacity.
I haven’t been in a battle, but if you gave me the choice between dying in battle ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puYfAEJJomeodeSsi/an-observation-of-vavilov-day |
# [New Feature] Support for Footnotes!
It is with great excitement[^u3ibj5ot8kj] that I am pleased to announce that the main LessWrong text editor[^j6mge1xal3b] now has support for footnotes![^nxvmf5nwk39] A huge thanks to our friends over at the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) who cod... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fg8dtE8HHkDoiGcwt/new-feature-support-for-footnotes |
# Promising posts on AF that have fallen through the cracks
Yesterday on the [Weekly Alignment Research Coffee Time](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/cysgh8zpmvt56f6Qw/event-weekly-alignment-research-coffee-time-01-03) call as people were sharing updates on their recent work, Vanessa Kosoy brought up her and Diffr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WerwgmeYZYGC2hKXN/promising-posts-on-af-that-have-fallen-through-the-cracks |
# The Map-Territory Distinction Creates Confusion
LessWrong isn't exactly founded on the [map-territory model of truth](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/map-and-territory), but it's definitely pretty core to the LessWrong worldview. The map-territory model implies a [correspondence theory of truth](https://en.wikipedia.o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cBH9FT7AWNNhJycaG/the-map-territory-distinction-creates-confusion |
# Omicron Post #12
It involved a backlog, but the USA reported over 1 million cases yesterday. That’s a lot of cases, and we’re missing a ton more of them. Schools, hospitals and all businesses face massive disruptions from people unable to work, even with the new CDC isolation guidelines.
So far, we’re holding up we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bSmRKNjTcX2soKAff/omicron-post-12 |
# More Is Different for AI
Machine learning is touching increasingly many aspects of our society, and its effect will only continue to grow. Given this, I and many others care about risks from future ML systems and how to mitigate them.
When thinking about safety risks from ML, there are two common approaches, which ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lp4Q9kSGsJHLfoHX3/more-is-different-for-ai |
# Movie review: Don't Look Up
*\[There have already been some reviews of Don’t Look Up, for example* [*Quinn Dougherty's*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C4XRhxQoihXMtAaLS/movie-review-don-t-look-up)*,* [*Nicholas Kross's*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwNpc5ka5nk9vx7xE/don-t-look-up-film-review)*, and* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zJmrkaknRydhuKzeJ/movie-review-don-t-look-up |
# Omicron in Biobot
I wrote a few weeks ago about how the increase in covid in Boston's sewage was seasonal, and [didn't yet reflect Omicron](https://www.jefftk.com/p/interpreting-the-biobot-spike). Now this, though, this is Omicron:
[](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87uy5m9dut3ACDeQf/omicron-in-biobot |
# Thank you, Queensland
*Epistemic status: Highly subjective post. Some of the numbers/dates given here are not precise, this is just how I remember what happened. *
In a time where most of the western world failed to contain the pandemic, I lived in a place where it was possible to have a mostly normal life, for mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r9gfbq26qvrjjA7JA/thank-you-queensland |
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