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# The Structure of the Guild of the Rose
This is a link post for [The Structure of the Guild](https://guildoftherose.org/articles/structure-of-the-guild), part one of a series of ongoing retrospectives on the progress of the **Guild of the Rose**, an organization for rationalist education and community. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDzXM2BBmfuCtc96Z/the-structure-of-the-guild-of-the-rose |
# Alignment Problems All the Way Down
*Epistemic status: pretty exploratory. I think this is a coherent concept, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there need to be some large changes.*
Edit \[7/12/2023\]: I think this post is pretty confused and confusing, and doesn't really address important parts of the alignment prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2CFBi4MNFNQXdbkss/alignment-problems-all-the-way-down |
# Instrumental Convergence For Realistic Agent Objectives
**Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents an unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcement learning, conflating "utility" with "rew... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W22Btd7NmGuucFejc/instrumental-convergence-for-realistic-agent-objectives |
# Grandpa Has Different Rules
It's very common that there are multiple adults in a child's life who parent differently. These can be explicit differences in rules (I allow jumping on the furniture, you don't), or more subtle differences in approach (I'm fine with kids trying to persuade me something should be ok, not ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BfP42fcnuMovbu5fe/grandpa-has-different-rules |
# There is a line in the sand, just not where you think it is
There is a mistake in updating beliefs around norms that I have seen multiple times in different contexts made by different people. This is my attempt to classify this (fallacy? /mistake?), in order to give it a name and make it easier to refer to.
A frien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nx6orWyRaHGN86aSn/there-is-a-line-in-the-sand-just-not-where-you-think-it-is |
# Postmortem on DIY Recombinant Covid Vaccine
_edit: Changed title from "Postmortem on RatVac" for clarity._
**Note**: We named the vaccine candidate "RatVac" as a tongue-in-cheek abbreviation for "Rationalist Vaccine". We have no association with the RaDVaC project and use a much simpler, almost trivial approach. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/McN9BNtNcbYNfdCB5/postmortem-on-diy-recombinant-covid-vaccine |
# What’s wrong with Pomodoro
POMODORO is a popular way to manage your time. The idea is that instead of half-working all day, you work in intense 25-minute stints, with 5-minute breaks (or occasionally longer) in between, marked by an alarm:
I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FDCJ2BfAT9qJGrpFa/what-s-wrong-with-pomodoro |
# A one-question Turing test for GPT-3
> "Amy": Sorry Mike, I entered the wrong number. I hope this was a beautiful misunderstanding. I am very sorry for the trouble I have caused you.
>
> Me: No trouble at all, hope you are well!
>
> "Amy": It is fate that we meet each other. Please forgive me for my mistake. My na... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ydeaHqDPJ5REJWvat/a-one-question-turing-test-for-gpt-3 |
# Descriptive vs. prescriptive optimism
*\[Cross-posting this essay from 2020 by request.\]*
I am not an “optimist”. Well, not exactly. Though I sing the praises of progress in these essays, and though I paint a [bold vision for the future](https://rootsofprogress.org/the-plight-of-the-poor), I have hesitated to appl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cTCxMjjTcR525o4X6/descriptive-vs-prescriptive-optimism |
# List of Probability Calibration Exercises
I recently spent a while looking at how different people had designed their probability calibration exercises (for ideas on how to design my own), and they turned out to be quite difficult to find. Many of the best ones were the least advertised and hardest to locate online.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdFbx9oqtKAAwtKF3/list-of-probability-calibration-exercises |
# 5x5 Go Board
Lily and I have been playing some [5x5](https://senseis.xmp.net/?5x5Board) [Go](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game)). We were using rubber bands to mark off a corner of a regular board, but I wanted a real one. It doesn't seem like anyone sells these, so I decided to make one:
[ he discussed SlimeMoldTimeMold’s research into possible causes of obesity, and how he thinks SMTM’s theories are more convin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zpg2C9fmzcGqqhZpE/hyperpalatable-food-hypothesis-a-lesswrong-study |
# CICO is a weird reference class
People tend to form what I guess I'm going to call default-hypothesis-reference-classes. This is what they see as the "default" hypothesis that new hypotheses have to compete against. Obviously this isn't how a perfect bayesian reasoner would act, but we're only human.
These weird r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kesTyochzba2phEZF/cico-is-a-weird-reference-class |
# Is AI Alignment a pseudoscience?
Hi there, my background is in AI research and recently I have discovered some AI Alignment communities centered around here. The more I read about AI Alignment, the more I have a feeling that the whole field is basically a fictional-world-building exercise.
Some problems I have noti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MubpeuMJvCSgKBkGc/is-ai-alignment-a-pseudoscience |
# Misplaced Nuance and Conversational Stack Overflow
Overview
--------
I've observed my interlocutors, and sometimes myself, applying excessive nuance to irrelevant points during discussions. This misplaced nuance derails conversations into rabbit holes and dead ends.
High-Level Description
----------------------
W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cef4HmGw8uKfzZ2oM/misplaced-nuance-and-conversational-stack-overflow |
# Why rationalists should care (more) about free software
*cross-posted to [pan narrans](https://richardjacton.github.io/Why-rationalists-should-care-more-about-free-software/)*
# Why rationalists should care (more) about free software
*especially if you want to upload your brain*
> In the limit condition freedom o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SoqQ3ShW2xmdpjeZ7/why-rationalists-should-care-more-about-free-software |
# NFTs, Coin Collecting, and Expensive Paintings
*I‘ve tried to make this post fairly nuanced and with a lot of steelmanning, in contrast to much of the material on this subject. My opinions on crypto as a whole are more complex and deserve a separate, more in depth post. None of this is financial advice, I am not a f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sNb6h4AsXqh2EjpDD/nfts-coin-collecting-and-expensive-paintings |
# Words are Imprecise Telepathy
Words are [mental paintbrush handles](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YF9HB6cWCJrDK5pBM/words-as-mental-paintbrush-handles). Saying "triangular lightbulb" paints a picture with words.
The point of communication is to transmit a message. But the message is not the words. The message is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3eyHvK7zCYbBfEce/words-are-imprecise-telepathy |
# Nuanced and Extreme Countersignaling
**Nuanced Countersignaling**
Scott Alexander described countersignaling as follow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3buwotWsPrxyYKESe/nuanced-and-extreme-countersignaling |
# Time until graduation as a proxy for picking between (German) universities
*If you are in high school and struggle with decision-making, please don't take this too seriously. If you're into EA maybe apply for [1-1 advice here?](https://80000hours.org/speak-with-us/?int_campaign=2021-08__primary-navigation)*
Choosi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qaFXtdv29vacin9v9/time-until-graduation-as-a-proxy-for-picking-between-german |
# Iterating fast: voice dictation as a form of babble
Voice input has dramatically increased my writing output as well as the quality of my ideas. But I think that it's not as easy as turning on voice dictation and writing an essay from start to finish. There is a particular way or method of doing voice input that I h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tZTqwmtE8BGtcszek/iterating-fast-voice-dictation-as-a-form-of-babble |
# Wireless Outlet Switching
We have lamps in our bedroom, and we were thinking it might be nice to wire up some switchable outlets. Ideally with a three-way switch, one at the doorway and one at our bed. Dimming would be nice too, though not a dealbreaker. This would be quite a lot of work, though, running new wires. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v2WDJbbbcLi5783ab/wireless-outlet-switching |
# Lives of the Cambridge polymath geniuses
[Link](https://drive.google.com/file/d/11r7IHn6YqYXObvFzMvIBKRZWVnc-EtOP/view?usp=sharing) to full-size image
Delicious Facts
---------------
**Russell**
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qbHLGo5vu8HD3JqEM/lives-of-the-cambridge-polymath-geniuses |
# Long Term Charities: Apply for SFF Funding
[In the last funding round](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2021-h2-recommendations) of the [Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF)](http://survivalandflourishing.fund/), I was one of the recommenders whose evaluations helped distribute millions of dollars in charitabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bziMz6XCr4Psr2qM3/long-term-charities-apply-for-sff-funding |
# Why do we need a NEW philosophy of progress?
I’ve said that [we need a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress). But why a *new* philosophy? Why can’t we just return to the 19th-century attitude towards progress, which was pretty enthusiastic?
In sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4rLb3gT5QwC8vxRsD/why-do-we-need-a-new-philosophy-of-progress |
# Vavilov Day Starts Tomorrow
Content note: discussion of fasting.
Three weeks ago, I [announced a plan](https://acesounderglass.com/2022/01/02/an-observation-of-vavilov-day/) to fast from the 25th to the 27th, in honor of Nikolai Vavilov and the staff of his botany institute, several of whom starved to death in the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ApeQJxeGFzTwA6zzu/vavilov-day-starts-tomorrow |
# Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Sources: [Scott’s evaluations](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions) (includes original predictions), [my buy/sell/hold post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/27/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold/).
Remember: [Evaluating Predictions in Hi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v5xRMDCk3tAA4mgCg/evaluating-2021-acx-predictions |
# What should a student who is already a decent programmer do over the summer?
I'm majoring in computer science. However, I don't want to do a software engineering internship. Reasons:
1. I'm already a decent programmer & have worked in big companies/startups/research lab-esque organizations. I definitely have a lot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Syu2xcyDn7QQ8DFkh/what-should-a-student-who-is-already-a-decent-programmer-do |
# Search Is All You Need
I was reading Eliezer's dialog with Richard Ngo and commenting to my wife about my opinions as I was reading it. I said something like: "Eliezer seems worried about some hypothetical GPT-X, but I don't think that could really be a problem..." so of course she asks "why?" and I say something li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FM8syD4gemCBmCouM/search-is-all-you-need |
# ML Systems Will Have Weird Failure Modes
Previously, I've argued that future ML systems might exhibit [unfamiliar, emergent capabilities](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/1527e9dd-c48d-4941-9b14-4f7293318d5c/), and that thought experiments [provide one approach](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/a2d733a7-108a-4587-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ncQoyxtqmBPLftwYR/ml-systems-will-have-weird-failure-modes |
# ELK First Round Contest Winners
Thank you to all those who have submitted proposals to the ELK proposal competition. We have evaluated all proposals submitted before January 14th[^1]. Decisions are still being made on proposals submitted after January 14th.
[^1]: We don’t plan on spending time evaluating and award... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXFbGzS3Sg2NhrNAu/elk-first-round-contest-winners |
# Patron Saint Holidays
Elizabeth recently wrote this as a [comment on the Vavilov day post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puYfAEJJomeodeSsi/an-observation-of-vavilov-day?commentId=zoHn9fkXN4ST3kxHo#comments). I thought it was important enough to be worth pulling out as a separate topic of discussion.
> I don't lov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SHokoBXaphaouyrES/patron-saint-holidays |
# Aligned AI Needs Slack
(Half-baked)
Much has been said about [slack](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/slack) on this site, starting with Zvi's seminal [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLLkWMDbC9ZNKbjDG/slack). The point I couldn't find easily (probably missed) is that an aligned AI would need a fair bit of it. H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mc2vroppqHsFLDEjh/aligned-ai-needs-slack |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 1. What's the problem & Why work on it now?
*(Last revised: March 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
1.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
This is the first of a [series of blog posts on the technical safety problem for hypothetical future brai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4basF9w9jaPZpoC8R/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-1-what-s-the-problem-and-why |
# Disambiguating the ‘Observable Universe’
*I’ve seen a lot of confusion over what precisely the term ‘observable universe’ refers to. This post is an attempt to remedy that. Crossposted from my* [*personal website*](https://samenright.com/2022/01/09/disambiguating-the-observable-universe/)*. *
In 1929, [Edwin Hubble... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jQLFdobJ4ctEzbsXw/disambiguating-the-observable-universe |
# Event: Moral Foundations of Progress Studies, March 4–6 at UT Austin
I’m excited to announce a workshop on the Moral Foundations of Progress Studies.
The progress studies community has had a lot of discussion about technology, economics, history, and politics. However, there is no consensus on the moral basis for v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7SNGrmGSZvoca44GQ/event-moral-foundations-of-progress-studies-march-4-6-at-ut |
# Vavilov Day Discussion Post
When I first [wrote up my plan](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puYfAEJJomeodeSsi/an-observation-of-vavilov-day) to fast in honor of Nikolai Vavilov and his institute staff, I conceived of it as basically a thing for myself, that might interest a few other people. It both got much more re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rveMvw5XMoNcu3Koy/vavilov-day-discussion-post |
# Arguments about Highly Reliable Agent Designs as a Useful Path to Artificial Intelligence Safety
This paper is a revised and expanded version of my blog post [Plausible cases for HRAD work, and locating the crux in the "realism about rationality" debate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGxTpdBGbwCWrGiCL/plausible-ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hWtpqjYXAvFExmAsD/arguments-about-highly-reliable-agent-designs-as-a-useful |
# Causality, Transformative AI and alignment - part I
**TL;DR:** transformative AI(TAI) plausibly requires causal models of the world. Thus, a component of AI safety is ensuring secure paths to generating these causal models. We think the lens of causal models might be undervalued within the current alignment research... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqzasmQ9Lye45QDMZ/causality-transformative-ai-and-alignment-part-i |
# Covid 1/27/22: Let My People Go
[The moment’s here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t54HRGzXcU0&ab_channel=sorenkierkegaard2008). My people are all the people. It is time to let my people go.
While case counts in many places remain high, we are on the way back down the mountain. The hospitals will hold. People can ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ntgTXq5F7HSxNJhaL/covid-1-27-22-let-my-people-go |
# Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
**Table of contents**
---------------------
* The American Empire Has Alzheimer's.
* Prediction Markets: VC money, searching for DraftKings, predatory pricing, and the race to be last.
* For skilled forecasters, crypto prediction markets are much more profitable th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2sGZQYytKdwXoZG3L/forecasting-newsletter-looking-back-at-2021 |
# What happened when I applied metrics to my piano practice (a five-part essay about the process of learning)
[*Crossposted*](https://www.nicoledieker.com/p/what-happened-when-i-applied-metrics) *from* [*Nicole Dieker Dot Com*](https://www.nicoledieker.com/)*. The third and final part in* [*my piano practice series*](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uJunQdy3bvbk24noa/what-happened-when-i-applied-metrics-to-my-piano-practice-a |
# 2020 Review: Final Voting
*Click* [*here to begin voting*](/reviewVoting/2020)*. Click* [*here for a general overview*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9kDqF2fn3WH44nrv/the-2020-review) *of the 2020 Review.*
We're now in the final week of the LessWrong 2020 Review. We've had over a month of preliminary voting and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ScqWBr8mxy32PzoDz/2020-review-final-voting |
# Advertising as a Parasite on the Semantic Commons
‘Tis the season to be bombarded with adverts for useless crap you don’t need or want. But it's not Christmas you say? Correct: it is always the season to be inundated with adverts. Continuing the [tradition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHuCZLkfx3fs9sgRe/the-bads-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yjY9sGacjSknXrcGh/advertising-as-a-parasite-on-the-semantic-commons |
# Book notes: "The Origins of You: How Childhood Shapes Later Life"
*Cross-posted from* [*Otherwise*](https://juliawise.net/)*, where I'm writing these days.*
*Other book note posts on books about children:* [*The Anthropology of Childhood*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwM7hnT9ysE3suwfk/notes-on-the-anthropol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fAEuzSj55Bcfxs73B/book-notes-the-origins-of-you-how-childhood-shapes-later |
# Mildly Photochromic Lenses?
After wearing glasses for about half my life, I decided to try [photochromic lenses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photochromic_lens). These darken when exposed to sunlight, as if I had put on sunglasses. It's pretty neat!
[](https://www.jefftk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xq9Ai6hsijEtjkraZ/mildly-photochromic-lenses |
# Deconfusing Deception
What does deception look like from the outside? I notice I am confused.
Imagine you have some algorithm which learns to predict sensory inputs, like a human. The internal structure of this will come to correspond to the external world in some way, as a part of generating a predictive model. Im... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6gimcnfapmp3ZAEjG/deconfusing-deception |
# Cheerful Harberger Day
This is a proposal for a holiday.
I'm provisionally calling it "Cheerful Harberger Day" for lack of a better idea of what to call it.
Imagine that once a year, perhaps on February 12th, or July 27th, you have invited your friends over for a special evening. In preparation for this evening, y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/bmrrKbKTBkg5MxtRB/cheerful-harberger-day |
# I Am a Dimensional Traveller from a World of Highly Sensitive Rationalists
I'm not actually a dimensional traveller. This is a writing exercise.
**"**[**Sensory processing sensitivity**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensory_processing_sensitivity) **(SPS)** is a temperamental or personality trait involving 'an inc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DDoGFk3sAFZtR2Cr6/i-am-a-dimensional-traveller-from-a-world-of-highly |
# Retrospective forecasting
Suppose you had to answer the following question: what were the chances of the Confederate States winning the American Civil War in the eve of the Battle of Gettysburg in 1863?
At first glance, it's not terribly clear what this question means. It's vaguely posed: we haven't made it clear w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qgm3u5XZLGkKp8W8b/retrospective-forecasting |
# Infant Talk boxes?
I often play music with Nora (7M) sitting on my lap, and she loves to play with my [talk box](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk_box) tube:
([youtube](https://youtu.be/8FppoY_xVds))
This is just something we do for fun, but it makes me wonder: could this sort of play help babies learn to talk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ReMCbdku7NoPrAdKT/infant-talk-boxes |
# Can we grow cars instead of building them?
Well that sounds like an exciting idea — imagine a car tree that grows on its own, and we need not do anything other than pick the ready-made cars off it. Perhaps we can breed faster models, or cross-breed to make new ones — in all seems like a lot less effort than having h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fYhH4S8LYXBPpc7N5/can-we-grow-cars-instead-of-building-them |
# Career Day: A Short Story
_(~5000 words, estimated reading time 35-40 minutes)_
. If the weather threatens to be bad it'll get cancelled; this will be announced here the morning of.
**Location (verbose): **
In the shade of the row of conifers just to the west of Syl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/8B4MautAsyA8TMAsw/south-bay-acx-lw-meetup |
# Reflections on six months of fatherhood
To be fed from a spoon requires three distinct skills. First, you must open your mouth when the spoon approaches. Second, you must close your mouth around the spoon once it has fully entered the mouth (and not before). Third, you must swallow the food that remains in your mout... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpjou9ZnLZkSJR7sd/reflections-on-six-months-of-fatherhood |
# Design policy to be testable
My [father in law](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Greenberg_(author)) is an expert on legislation. He's travelled around the world advising countries on how to craft laws and constitutions.
One of the projects he's working on at the moment is advising on [a bill](http://www.nias... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bGDk58fPYQK7pRHvS/design-policy-to-be-testable |
# On infinite ethics
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/01/30/on-infinite-ethics/))
> *And for all this, nature is never spent…*
>
> *—* [*Gerard Manley Hopkins*](https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44395/gods-grandeur)
Summary:
* Infinite ethics (i.e., ethical theory that c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5iZTwGHv2tNfFmeDa/on-infinite-ethics |
# Meaning of Words - An Exercise for Active Thinking
An example of fancy math jargon
-------------------------------
What comes to your mind when you first hear the phrase “*abstract nonsense*”? For me, the first picture in my head was some obvious falsehood, like 1+1=3. I was not so sure about the “abstract” part, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d9aeT3RsbZ95cHgHw/meaning-of-words-an-exercise-for-active-thinking |
# Immune, In a Nutshell
[*Immune: A journey into the mysterious system that keeps you alive*](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Immune-Kurzgesagt-gorgeously-illustrated-immune/dp/1529360684), by Philipp Dettmer, is a cross between a high-school biology textbook and an epic two-part saga. At its core there are two stories, desc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eMTifnJFa6uJQDemc/immune-in-a-nutshell |
# Before Colour TV, People Dreamed in Black and White
On an episode of [Julia Galef’s podcast](http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/166-why-you-should-expect-the-truth-to-be-crazy-eric-schwitzgebel/), the philosopher Eric Schwitzgebel said the following:
> *For \[dreams\], there was actually a literature that's very... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3JfhAiDpu8XD5AgrE/before-colour-tv-people-dreamed-in-black-and-white |
# 2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Previously: [2021 ACX Predictions B/S/H](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/27/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold/), [2021 ACX Results Analysis](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/01/25/evaluating-2021-acx-predictions/)
It’s that time again. Scott’s predictions are l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wG6GQ7NpdBFsHgA6y/2022-acx-predictions-buy-sell-hold |
# Is there a better choice than "Stop After Win" (or does double-checking lead to failure loops)?
[*Crossposted.*](https://www.nicoledieker.com/p/is-there-a-better-choice-than-stop)
Here we go.
To recap:
Last week I wrote about [what happened when I applied metrics to my piano practice](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aiWtmZgtnqxctLcox/is-there-a-better-choice-than-stop-after-win-or-does-double |
# Empirical Findings Generalize Surprisingly Far
Previously, I [argued](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/1527e9dd-c48d-4941-9b14-4f7293318d5c/) that emergent phenomena in machine learning mean that we can't rely on current trends to predict what the future of ML will be like. In this post, I will argue that despite t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ekFMGpsfhfWQzMW2h/empirical-findings-generalize-surprisingly-far |
# Solar Snow Redirector?
[Three years ago](https://www.jefftk.com/p/solar-one-year-in) we put solar panels on the only part of our roof that got sunlight, which unfortunately mostly faces WNW. Since then, however, our neighbors have removed a large tree just east of us, and now the part of our roof that faces ESE gets... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9dmndC4NQqwnSyCQQ/solar-snow-redirector |
# Impossibility results for unbounded utilities
Some people think that they have unbounded utility functions. This isn't necessarily crazy, but it presents serious challenges to conventional decision theory. I think it probably leads to abandoning probability itself as a representation of uncertainty (or at least any ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hbmsW2k9DxED5Z4eJ/impossibility-results-for-unbounded-utilities |
# Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.
So the [TOGETHER trial](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00448-4/fulltext) signal boosted by Scott of slate star codex found Fluvoxamine to be effective at reducing 30% of COVID hospitalisa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ip5jhbsirDY9Guywd/help-me-understand-the-rationale-of-the-nih-to-not-recommend |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 2. “Learning from scratch” in the brain
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
2.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wBHSYwqssBGCnwvHg/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-2-learning-from-scratch-in |
# Competitive programming with AlphaCode
Note: I'm totally going to alter the article based on the comments. Though of course I'll give credit where it is due.
Edit: Apparently there is a post by one of the authors going in depth on the paper. [Here](https://www.furidamu.org/blog/2022/02/02/competitive-programming-wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmxkmCjXJBpwJkgrw/competitive-programming-with-alphacode |
# An Experiment in Habit Changing - 5 Week Retrospective
# **Introduction**
I committed internally and externally to following self-created rules for specific parts of my life to change habits and improve my production to consumption ratio. Here's what I did, why I did it, and what I learned after 5 weeks!
# **Reas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGDWpFBDh5xE8uhd3/an-experiment-in-habit-changing-5-week-retrospective |
# Voting Results for the 2020 Review
*Full voting results [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-cLgwyl9olQQe9armRx1W3tu4VE8FObmV2gj_rmZ1as/edit#gid=1406116027). Original* [*2020 Review announcement here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9kDqF2fn3WH44nrv/the-2020-review)*.*
* * *
That's it folks! The votes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TSaJ9Zcvc3KWh3bjX/voting-results-for-the-2020-review |
# February 2022 Open Thread
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited. This ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4uP36GT7xercMNxg/february-2022-open-thread |
# Good books about overcoming coordination problems?
The questions I mostly frequently ask myself are "How does anything good scale?" and "How is anything good and large-scale sustained?"
The most trivial answer to this is "Markets and incentives!" which is not wrong, but also seems like an underwhelming answer. Mark... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hAn2ReoaiEtCcsurT/good-books-about-overcoming-coordination-problems |
# Thoughts on AGI safety from the top
In this post, I'll summarize my views on AGI safety after thinking about it for two years while on the Research Scholars Programme at FHI -- before which I was quite skeptical about the entire subject. [^d0ytybye60t]
My goals here are twofold: (1) to introduce the problem from sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ApLnWjgMwBTJt6buC/thoughts-on-agi-safety-from-the-top |
# OpenAI Solves (Some) Formal Math Olympiad Problems
_Epistemic status: I have just skimmed through OpenAI's blogpost and paper, I do not fully understand the details._
From the [blogpost](https://openai.com/blog/formal-math/)
> We built a neural theorem prover for [Lean](https://leanprover.github.io/) that learned ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3vAgFnbDja9hZm9E/openai-solves-some-formal-math-olympiad-problems |
# January 2022 Time Tracking
Time tracking can be a good way to see how you've been spending your time and how it compares to how you would like to be spending it. It's something that Julia and I have done a few times ( [December 2017](https://www.jefftk.com/p/december-2017-time-tracking), [June 2017](https://www.jeff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/83tk7YFQBF9WdfBh9/january-2022-time-tracking |
# Observed patterns around major technological advancements
_Cross-posted from the [AI Impacts blog](https://aiimpacts.org/observed-patterns-around-major-technological-advancements/)_
Summary
=======
In this post I outline apparent regularities in how major new technological capabilities and methods come about. I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iRhSi5KcnnD9qsAGo/observed-patterns-around-major-technological-advancements |
# Why Do I Think I Have Values?
*Epistemic status: I just thought of this today, and it made a huge amount of my confusion on this topic disappear. *
Values are this weird concept. Humans aren't utility maximizers, but we think of ourselves as them. There's a paradox in the values-beliefs framework: humans can identi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5D2fnNr7HXJZQzfe/why-do-i-think-i-have-values |
# On Bounded Distrust
Response To (Scott Alexander): [Bounded Distrust](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust)
Would that it were that simple.
There is a true and important core idea at the center of Bounded Distrust.
You can (and if you are wise, you often do) have an individual, institution or ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6YYmkpumigAmh3efu/on-bounded-distrust |
# QNR prospects are important for AI alignment research
***Attention conservation notice:** This discussion is intended for readers with an interest in prospects for knowledge-rich intelligent systems and potential applications of improved knowledge representations to AI capabilities and alignment. It contains no theo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FKE6cAzQxEK4QH9fC/qnr-prospects-are-important-for-ai-alignment-research |
# The Urgency of Normal: An Exercise in Bounded Distrust
\[NOTE: This post, except for the introductory section here in brackets, was written continuously as I investigated the situation, then split off from the weekly post. Except for adding this first paragraph to provide context I did not go back and edit based on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s3harcBx83uofGhbe/the-urgency-of-normal-an-exercise-in-bounded-distrust |
# Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
**Highlights**
--------------
* Polymarket now operates out of [Panama](https://polymarket.com/tos)
* Aver, a new Solana-based betting site, raised [$7.5M in seed funding](https://averbet.medium.com/aver-the-worlds-first-fully-decentralized-web3-betting-platform-closes-7-5m-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPYHfzdAMGtLHRccN/forecasting-newsletter-january-2022 |
# Covid 2/3/22: Loosening Bounds
In better discourse this week, [I have a long reply](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/on-bounded-distrust/) to [Scott Alexander’s Bounded Distrust](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust). I also spun off another piece about a toolkit that’s advocating for school... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ihXjtCQTysy9tr7ya/covid-2-3-22-loosening-bounds |
# Positly covid survey 2: controlled productivity data
_(This continues data from the survey I did the other day on Positly (some other bits [here](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2022/01/14/preliminary-long-covid-survey.html) and [here](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2022/01/18/covid-survey.html).)_
Before aski... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Rtvo6qhFde6TnDng/positly-covid-survey-2-controlled-productivity-data |
# Transferring credence without transferring evidence?
Agent X has evidence for proposition P that agent Y does not have, and X wants to convince Y that P is true (or more precisely, increase Y's credence in P as well). However, there are the following unfortunate conditions:
1) Y doesn't trust X, meaning that X jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vepyHZkMnG4hXBk2f/transferring-credence-without-transferring-evidence |
# Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions
*cross-posted to [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated)*
# TLDR
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via [this fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hTHhiZ9kGEo7r8YRS/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated |
# Convoy
This would have been [in yesterday’s weekly post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/covid-2-3-22-loosening-bounds/) but I ran out of time, so I only got to it today. It seemed substantial enough to post on its own rather than wait a full six days, so here it is.
Reports are in from Canada. [Looks like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RC4nyoQfqHhqgNxPb/convoy |
# What is a “philosophy of progress?”
I’ve been using the term “philosophy of progress” a lot lately (such as [calling for a new one](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress), or [critiquing the old ones](https://rootsofprogress.org/why-a-new-philosophy-of-progress)). What does this term mean?
I use ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZkahMYbS6C5uYYz4K/what-is-a-philosophy-of-progress |
# A Quick Look At 20% Time
I was approached by a client to research the concept of 20% time for engineers, and they graciously agreed to let me share my results. Because this work was tailored to the needs of a specific client, it may have gaps or assumptions that make it a bad 101 post, but in the expectation that it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kunCXzbo5h8WreNnM/a-quick-look-at-20-time |
# Alignment versus AI Alignment
*Financial status: This work is supported by individual donors and a grant from LTFF.*
*Epistemic status: This post contains many inside-view stories about the difficulty of alignment.*
*Thanks to Adam Shimi, John Wentworth, and Rob Miles for comments on this essay.*
---
What exactl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hTfyX4823wKqnoFnS/alignment-versus-ai-alignment |
# Why will AI be dangerous?
LessWrong should offer a ***short*** pitch on why AI will be dangerous, and this aims to be that.$^1$
Many people think, "Why would humanity make dangerous AI? Seems like a stupid idea. Can't we just make the safe kind?" **No**. Humanity will make dangerous AI for the same reason we made ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ifELfxpTq8tdtaBgi/why-will-ai-be-dangerous |
# Real Reality
**Disclaimer: This may not be a very new concept, but it provides a revisions or a slightly different perspective on the matter.**
I realized that I started to talk less with my dad. It's because his hearing is poor (due to some ear infection he had in his childhood). It would be awkward whenever I wou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n4ogNFBgKRGcSq3Yo/real-reality |
# Why I want to make a logical language
I would normally publish this on my blog, however, I thought that LessWrong people might be interested in this topic. This sequence is about my experience creating a logical language, Sekko (still a work-in-progress).
# What's a logical language?
Languages can be divided into ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epzPDRvvDkpbMNGaB/why-i-want-to-make-a-logical-language |
# Bryan Caplan meets Socrates
*Socrates and Glaucon are walking down from the Acropolis, when they encounter a stranger from a distant land.*
**Caplan:** Greetings, Socrates.
**Socrates:** Greetings, stranger. From whence do you come?
**Caplan:** I am from a faraway land.
**Socrates:** Sparta? Thrace?
**Caplan:**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/joMFZvuuAxaDyvi7v/bryan-caplan-meets-socrates |
# Computability and Complexity
Perhaps the most difficult problem in computer science is to gain some understanding of what a program does without having to run it. This might seem surprising to you. Why can't we simply look at the source code or some other description of the program and "see" what it does?
If so, th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Af3X8b7f5piqtqZx/computability-and-complexity |
# Practical Decision-Making Course: A Retrospective
This is a linkpost for [Practical Decision-Making Retrospective](https://guildoftherose.org/articles/practical-decision-making-retrospective), an article looking back on the successes and learnings from this course. This article is part two of a series of ongoing ret... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PYZ3MjrAAhnk8NnNP/practical-decision-making-course-a-retrospective |
# Miscellaneous thoughts on handling a stressful life
I've had several stressful periods in my life, where I was working
very hard and felt overwhelmed. I anticipate that some of the
conditions that led to me having to work very hard are happening again
and likely to happen for the next few months. As much as possible... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rBLEiEsNxpQaqwsmJ/miscellaneous-thoughts-on-handling-a-stressful-life |
# A modest spelling reform to increase autologicity, symmetry, and readability.
- o
- tw
- thr
- four
- ffive
- ssssix
- ssseven
- eeeeight
- nnnnnnine
At this point, if one is working in a digital medium where one maybe have a blissful disregard for line length, one may happily continue onwards to tttttttten up pas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yAs3FzJyggQatvbyG/a-modest-spelling-reform-to-increase-autologicity-symmetry |
# Sledding Is Underrated
Sledding is pretty great:
* No lines. You don't have to wait, just go.
* Minimal cost. A basic plastic sled costs $15-$20 at a hardware store, and while they wear out pretty quickly it's still less than $5/outing. Aside from that, all you need is standard winter gear (including [snow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/27rCMHQG2udMMYiic/sledding-is-underrated |
# Fundamental Uncertainty: Prelude
*NB: The first draft of the book is now complete. This post is no longer very relevant, but I've left it up for posterity. You can find the most up-to-date info on the* [*book's website*](https://www.fundamentaluncertainty.com/)*.*
I have a plan to write a sequence that I can turn i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2e9EeAJXhbWAvEZTB/fundamental-uncertainty-prelude |
# Experimenting with microsolidarity crews
*(2023 edit: I've compiled a list of session templates at* [*eacrews.notion.site*](https://eacrews.notion.site)*)*
In 2020 I was introduced to "[microsolidarity](https://www.microsolidarity.cc/)", a set of ideas and methodologies on relating to others in groups. Over the las... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qxJhtjBsKocrXdWmk/experimenting-with-microsolidarity-crews |
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