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# Sex Versus
Both sides of the political divide are turning on sex-positivity and blaming the antagonistic desires of men and women. But I wouldn't give up on common ground the opposite sex just yet.
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/10/06/sex-versus/), this is part 1/4 of a [sequence on se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNb7fTLPx3rbengYz/sex-versus |
# Consensual Hostility
In a world of conflict between men and women, constant negotiation of consent is required. But the focus on consent to the exclusion of everything else is in part what brought this world about
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/10/11/consensual-hostility/), this is par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SaJgmQdQzpqDKsC4r/consensual-hostility |
# Selfless Dating
What if you just modeled your partner well enough to do what they would want without needing to ask? And what if you tried this from the very first date?
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2022/01/02/selfless-dating/), this is the conclusion of a four-part [sequence on selfless ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEqb3LRuEn96K5rvy/selfless-dating |
# Animal welfare EA and personal dietary options
When I imagine an animal welfare EA group, I imagine views breaking down something like:
* 50%: If factory farmed animals are moral patients, it's more likely that they have net-negative lives (i.e., it would better for them not to exist, than to live such terrible l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b7Euvy3RCKT7cppDk/animal-welfare-ea-and-personal-dietary-options |
# [Book Review]: The Bonobo and the Atheist by Frans De Waal
The Bonobo and the Atheist does something truly rare, which is to come up with an interesting way of viewing morality. 'What is right?' is the most pored-over and divisive question in all of philosophy, the book mostly ignores it. The best parts of it contai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQgyAxvqGLdx3Zqmu/book-review-the-bonobo-and-the-atheist-by-frans-de-waal |
# Newcomb's Problem as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma
The intuitively paradoxical aspect of Newcomb's Problem is that it contains a loop. Your decision determines Omega's prediction, which determines the options you decide between. There are many decision theories that solve this problem, usually leading to one-boxing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7srXEZsmQpdBmgvnH/newcomb-s-problem-as-an-iterated-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# How To Raise Others’ Aspirations in 17 Easy Steps
*Title taken from Tyler Cowen:* [*The high-return activity of raising others’ aspirations*](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/10/high-return-activity-raising-others-aspirations.html)
*This is taken from a* [*twitter thread*](https://twitter.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MvLmeWApdcuEcuefk/how-to-raise-others-aspirations-in-17-easy-steps |
# Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
What if the brain is *highly efficient*? To be more specific, there are several interconnected key measures of efficiency for physical learning machines:
* energy efficiency in ops/J
* spatial efficiency in ops/mm^2 or ops/mm^3
* speed efficiency in time/delay for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xwBuoE9p8GE7RAuhd/brain-efficiency-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# You can't understand human agency without understanding amoeba agency
This is supposed to be a trivially true statement, and yet it sounds controversial somehow, doesn't it?
The difference between the two is quantitative, not qualitative, unless you explicitly or implicitly subscribe to the "humans are the only re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hj9nhytcL5afPN6hx/you-can-t-understand-human-agency-without-understanding |
# Importance of foresight evaluations within ELK
This post makes a few basic observations regarding the importance of foresight-based evaluations within ELK \[[Christiano et al 2021](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge)\]:
1. Without foresigh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mvGNKQ6iSDf3d4gCi/importance-of-foresight-evaluations-within-elk |
# Covid 1/6/22: The Blip
Cases are hitting record highs around the world. That’s going to continue for another few weeks. While it does, and for a bit after it stops, there are disruptions all around as too many people are sick at one time. Thus, the CDC guideline adjustments, the hospitals under pressure, many school... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uryfYSdx3fLpNxKQC/covid-1-6-22-the-blip |
# Signaling isn't about signaling, it's about Goodhart
***Epistemic status**: Fuzzy conjecture in a faintly mathematically flavored way. Clear intuitions about Gears and a conclusion, but nothing like a formal proof or even formal definitions. Anecdotes offered to clarify the intuition rather than as an attempt at dat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dPifaJGRWMm8rKxCP/signaling-isn-t-about-signaling-it-s-about-goodhart |
# AMA: I was unschooled for most of my childhood, then voluntarily chose to leave to go to a large public high school.
I've seen a lot of discussion in the LW community about alternatives to traditional school for kids. Given how few kids actually get to experience the alternatives ([<4% of kids in the US are homescho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xntutjsGyt6ghZzDb/ama-i-was-unschooled-for-most-of-my-childhood-then |
# Why maximize human life?
There is an idea, or maybe an assumption, that I've seen mentioned in many Lesswrong posts. This is the idea that **human life should be maximized**: that one of our goals should be to create as many humans as possible. Or perhaps even: that *preventing* humans from being born is as bad as k... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkjyu5wwtSzds87Cc/why-maximize-human-life |
# Third Time: a better way to work
HOW CAN you be more productive? Instead of half-working all day, it’s better to work in focused stints, with breaks in between to recover.
There are various ways to do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RWu8eZqbwgB9zaerh/third-time-a-better-way-to-work |
# Omicron Post #13: Outlook
Omicron is now the dominant strain, so much of what would otherwise have gone into this Omicron post ended up [in the latest weekly post](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/covid-1622-the-blip) instead, and I’m considering the right way to merge the two streams together.
In addition to some amo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2LiRBudCeCFSEg25v/omicron-post-13-outlook |
# Reductionism is not the ultimate tool for causal inference
*This is a link post for* [*a Substack post*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/reductionism-is-not-the-ultimate) *I made.*
Sometimes, when doing causal inference, people strongly wish to see a mechanism. For instance, for the claim that some trait is genet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gkv2TCbeE9jjMHXKR/reductionism-is-not-the-ultimate-tool-for-causal-inference |
# Omicron variolation?
Given that the balance of evidence is looking more and more like O is mild, should healthy folks below some age (60 years?) seek to expose themselves? Cost/benefit will obviously vary with vaccination status, but this is looking like an opportunity for a low-risk inoculation against whatever var... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W7ZBNzWzwACMqtW6m/omicron-variolation |
# Goal-directedness: my baseline beliefs
In a short time I will be starting a project (funded by LTFF) under the supervision of Adam Shimi with the goal of *deconfusing goal-directedness*. I have decided to record the progress on this project on a biweekly basis here on LW, to test whether this helps to keep me accoun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7X9KKqgZa7edknKPm/goal-directedness-my-baseline-beliefs |
# Two ominous charts on the financial markets
The following two charts have been on my mind quite intensively for some time and have had a relatively strong influence on my thinking about dangers for the future development of the financial markets in recent months:
**1\. Shiller CAPE**
An interesting measure of sto... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKY368onsGkPrhfdR/two-ominous-charts-on-the-financial-markets |
# The best curriculum for every goal
In the fine tradition of [Best Textbook](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xg3hXCYQPJkwHyik2/the-best-textbooks-on-every-subject), [Best Software](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHS4FJhByRjqsuH4o/the-best-software-for-every-need) and [Best Visualization](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HTWKopHEDHw2h2Rr/the-best-curriculum-for-every-goal |
# Let's Stop Pretending to Be Original Thinkers
_Cross-posted from my Substack, A Flood of Ideas:_ **[https://mflood.substack.com/p/lets-stop-pretending-we-are-original](https://mflood.substack.com/p/lets-stop-pretending-we-are-original)**
### Why Be Original?
Our society values and promotes original thinking and no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKAzfPdoC6vYdwTLw/let-s-stop-pretending-to-be-original-thinkers |
# Total compute available to evolution
I’m looking for estimates of the total compute available to evolution:
Total number of cell divisions
Total number of times a DNA nucleotide was transcribed to RNA
Total number of times an RNA codon was translated to an amino acid
Total number of base pairs in all genomes
To... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2R9ZysrxqTtvFTToj/total-compute-available-to-evolution |
# A counterargument that isn't
(cross-posted from [my blog](https://sundaystopwatch.eu/a-counterargument-that-isnt/))
Let's say that you're in a discussion, and it goes something like this:
- We should do institute regulatory measures, like taxes, to inhibit the growth of the economy so that we can slow down or stop ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WcZipyNZEKxvubjxF/a-counterargument-that-isn-t |
# Use Normal Predictions
Making predictions is a good practice, writing them down is even better.
However, we often make binary predictions when it is not necessary, such as
* Biden win popular vote: 91%
* Danish COVID deaths above 10.000 by January 1. 2022: 84%
Alternatively, we could make predictions from a no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GMCs73dCPTL8dWYGq/use-normal-predictions |
# Omicron - How does it change Covid risk and what should we do about it?
\[Crossposted from [https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/omicron](https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/omicron) with a few small updates to the estimates from the last couple days\]
My thoughts on how Omicron affects Covid risk and what we should do ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hjrNEk85pLRbvjApX/omicron-how-does-it-change-covid-risk-and-what-should-we-do |
# Uncontroversially good legislation
Say you’re fortuitously seated next to a senator, state assembly member, or city supervisor at a wedding. You’ve got to talk about something, so you figure it wouldn’t be rude to mention some legislative issue you’re passionate about.
What would the legislation be?
I’m curious ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9fK9jSgTWJhcGYjbh/uncontroversially-good-legislation |
# The IHME Report
[An IHME report came out over the weekend](https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_3.pdf). I was pleasantly surprised by it contents. Its conclusions and projections broadly match what I said in [the last Omicron post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MBPgheFuHFLcctwcf/the-ihme-report |
# Tips for productively using short (<30min) blocks of time
Here's a common situation I find myself in: it's 1:30pm and I have a commitment at 2pm. I'd like to spend the next 30 minutes working, but all of the tasks I need to complete will take much more than 30 minutes to complete. I think to myself: "By the time I g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tgfRrsbFzNyDmhiTJ/tips-for-productively-using-short-less-than-30min-blocks-of |
# Activated Charcoal for Hangover Prevention: Way more than you wanted to know
Activated charcoal is charcoal that has been heated up a whole lot and then washed really hard, by water or acid. [This process](https://buyactivatedcharcoal.com/how_to_make_activated_charcoal/) is what "activates" it, and activating it inc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LfrNFfJFcqnG9WuFf/activated-charcoal-for-hangover-prevention-way-more-than-you |
# Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021
**Highlights**
--------------
* Polymarket’s future is uncertain after it [settled with the CFTC for $1.4M](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22)
* Astral Codex Ten gives out $40k to [forecasting projects](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-res... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDfesb7oYu8KhGvLR/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021 |
# The First Person And The Physical Person
*This is another attempt to promote my approach to anthropic paradoxes. I framed the argument differently hopefully making it more clear. Please refer to* [*my website*](https://www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com/) *for more.*
What "I" Means
--------------
In the strict indexica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkhQC9YBgQAcgBLRP/the-first-person-and-the-physical-person |
# No Abstraction Without a Goal
* Abstractions are important.
* In order to think in terms of "trees" and "birds" instead of raw retinal activation rates, human minds need to form abstractions.
* In order to keep Nature red in tooth and claw, organisms must first [evolve abstractions](https://www.lesswrong.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F2LS4tjbNDnLAsdbp/no-abstraction-without-a-goal-1 |
# D&D.Sci Holiday Special: How the Grinch Pessimized Christmas Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to [](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boLvvZiRazNqipup7/d-and-d-sci-dungeoncrawling-the-crown-of-command) [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cma9jQqvL29et8AeY/d-and-d-sci-holiday-special-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tQQaAuTtMCkYBbZcj/d-and-d-sci-holiday-special-how-the-grinch-pessimized-1 |
# Calibration proverbs
*Cross-post from* [*Telescopic Turnip*](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/calibration-proverbs).
Every problem is a calibration problem. That’s why most advice is basically useless: it tells you what to do, but doesn’t tell you when to stop. Therefore, the best pieces of advice are calibration ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NYH8kjdpLCTXcit8C/calibration-proverbs |
# An Open Philanthropy grant proposal: Causal representation learning of human preferences
*This is a proposal I wrote for the recent [Open Philanthropy call on AI Alignment projects](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/request-for-proposals... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5BkEoJFEqQEWy9GcL/an-open-philanthropy-grant-proposal-causal-representation |
# Future ML Systems Will Be Qualitatively Different
In 1972, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Philip Anderson wrote the essay "[More Is Different](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/177/4047/393)". In it, he argues that quantitative changes can lead to qualitatively different and unexpected phenomena. While he fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZaPhGg2hmmPwByHc/future-ml-systems-will-be-qualitatively-different |
# Has anyone had weird experiences with Alcor?
After years of procrastinating, I've finally taken steps towards signing up for cryonics, thanks in no small part to things I've read here on LessWrong. I view it as a very long shot, but worth a try nonetheless.
However, I'm getting some very weird signals from the Alc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yfxgEepyDFf5qZcB5/has-anyone-had-weird-experiences-with-alcor |
# Understanding the two-head strategy for teaching ML to answer questions honestly
This post is the result of my attempts to understand what’s going on in these two posts from summer 2021:
Paul Christiano: [https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/QqwZ7cwEA2cxFEAun/teaching-ml-to-answer-questions-honestly-instead-of](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ntmbm79zQakr29XLw/understanding-the-two-head-strategy-for-teaching-ml-to |
# Progress, humanism, agency: An intellectual core for the progress movement
I’ve said that [we need a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress). This implies that the world needs, not just progress *studies,* but a progress *movement:* the advocacy of a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EaCkKLKZoE38T6fCu/progress-humanism-agency-an-intellectual-core-for-the |
# Morality and constrained maximization, part 2
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/01/10/morality-and-constrained-maximization-part-2/))
This is the second in a pair of posts examining whether morality falls out of instrumental rationality, if you do the game theory right. [David Ga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kRZHr8TzhNc92riA2/morality-and-constrained-maximization-part-2 |
# (briefly) RaDVaC and SMTM, two things we should be doing
UPDATE: Be advised that I no longer consider SMTM to be among the things we should be doing, though I don't regret having given them an earlier try. I wish somebody else was running out and trying the sort of things that SMTM is trying, but they're bad enoug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kjmpq33kHg7YpeRYW/briefly-radvac-and-smtm-two-things-we-should-be-doing |
# Value extrapolation partially resolves symbol grounding
Take the following AI, trained on videos of happy humans:
Since we know about [AI wireheading](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vXzM5L6njDZSf4Ftk/defining-ai-wireheading), we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/thZdioHTZALRPKmiH/value-extrapolation-partially-resolves-symbol-grounding |
# Political Office for Beginners?
If an American citizen was looking to run for office (from local, state, all the way to federal), what would be the recommended steps to take?
Specific questions that come to mind:
\* How would a Millennial or Gen Z'er deal with existing social media accounts?
\* How would a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvYJMhvC26Cxi2RPF/political-office-for-beginners |
# New year, new research agenda post
*Thanks to Steve Byrnes, Adam Shimi, John Wentworth, and Peter Barnett for feedback.*
In a nutshell, my plan A is to understand what we want from superintelligent AI really, really well. So well that we can write down a way of modeling humans that illuminates human preference... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zuHezdoGr2KtM2n43/new-year-new-research-agenda-post |
# The Unreasonable Feasibility Of Playing Chess Under The Influence
*TL;DR: The wonderful tradition of playing chess drunk, Marr's levels of analysis, AlphaZero, and Iterated Amplification and Distillation.*
**A proud history of drinking and playing chess**
=================================================
Please en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdLupXLAmWBGueCBR/the-unreasonable-feasibility-of-playing-chess-under-the |
# Paper claims: "Rationality" flavored words rose since 1850, began declining ~1980
*Epistemic status: found the link, thought it was kinda interesting, mostly kicking off discussion. *
This article felt somewhat related to "[Have Epistemic Conditions Always Been This Bad](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PjfsbKrK5MnJ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jpEwXQHd6Q95ueyEA/paper-claims-rationality-flavored-words-rose-since-1850 |
# Question Gravity
Earlier today, I was in the shower. I had just finished a bottle of shampoo, and I tried balancing it on the thin railing of the shower door. I expected it to fall down, but instead it stayed there. From the side, it certainly *looked* like it was sticking out more than halfway over the edge. ([Pict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mqhP3GKqBgGcucXu3/question-gravity |
# Plan B in AI Safety approach
Central claim: *Ambitious alignment of superintelligent AI will not be solved in time, therefore different variants of plan B should be explored and implemented.*
Below is a short overview and links to my works on AI safety. The central theme of all them is “plan B”. Thus it could be ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PbaoeYXfztoDvqBjw/plan-b-in-ai-safety-approach |
# On Virtue
*This post is comprised partly of my own ideas, and partly of the ideas of Scott Alexander. Part of what I am doing here is just explaining my interpretation of his post. It is my first post, and it’s essentially just an experiment. I’d be highly appreciative of feedback and constructive criticism. I’m no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W2occvsDJnuXSZRwb/on-virtue |
# Omicron Post #14
Important note on testing that I’m including at top of both posts today.
**From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throat swabs.**
[Here’s Washington Post on th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XynTbvtY8348vb488/omicron-post-14 |
# Covid 1/13/22: Endgame
**Important note, fleshed out a bit more in [Omicron Post #14](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-14): From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nb7fTHbCgrwonRJo3/covid-1-13-22-endgame |
# Do you want quadratic voting in the Final Voting Phase?
For the 2020 Review, people have continued using the 7-point preliminary voting option throughout the Review Phase. I've personally found it fairly satisfying to use. I'm considering whether to add back the "fine-tuned quadratic voting" option from previous yea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DTyLEqizxGbgvqoQj/do-you-want-quadratic-voting-in-the-final-voting-phase |
# I have COVID, for how long should I isolate?
Case was relatively mild, and I'm feeling a lot better now (day 5), though I still have the sniffles and minor fatigue. I tested negative last week and positive this week via PCR, so I'm pretty confident this was COVID and not an unrelated illness. I live in the US, where... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/433KZAkegCrMDLN8W/i-have-covid-for-how-long-should-i-isolate |
# How to tradeoff utility and agency?
I'm slowly working through a bunch of philosophical criticisms of consequentialism and utilitarianism, kicked off by this book: [https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Philosophical-Perspectives/Lewens/p/book/9780415422840](https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Philosophical-Perspectives/Lewens/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iFfo88d6LG3N47h33/how-to-tradeoff-utility-and-agency |
# 2020 Review Article
A common thing in academia is to write ‘review articles’ that attempt to summarize a whole field quickly, allowing researchers to see what’s out there (while referring them to the actual articles for all of the details). This is my attempt to do something similar for the [2020 Review](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPjy5DoHGkx3Aan2z/2020-review-article |
# The Greedy Doctor Problem... turns out to be relevant to the ELK problem?
The following post was published on [my Substack](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/the-greedy-doctor-problem) and discussed on [HackerNews](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29269973) about 2 months ago. I originally planned it as an a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dDzHJGmyeQa2tGmqH/the-greedy-doctor-problem-turns-out-to-be-relevant-to-the |
# School Daze
[In our educational system](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/04/15/the-case-against-education/), the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. The children who have committed no crime, and the adults who prosecute the offenders. These are their stories.
We need to close the s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QTq4YcXyR4mtPurtZ/school-daze |
# Survey supports ‘long covid is bad’ hypothesis (very tentative)
I wanted more clues about whether we live in a world where really bad long covid outcomes are vanishingly rare (but concentrated a lot in my [Twitter](https://twitter.com/KatjaGrace/status/1480780277156773889)) or in a world where for instance a large f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TP5rqHafDyCvD27Xr/survey-supports-long-covid-is-bad-hypothesis-very-tentative |
# Look For Principles Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm
In 1918, Emmy Noether published her famous theorem showing that each symmetry of the laws of physics implies a corresponding conserved quantity. Laws which remain the same even if we move the whole universe left or right a little result in conservation o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bmoQ2wy7Nd7EiJdpg/look-for-principles-which-will-carry-over-to-the-next |
# How Bad Is QWERTY, Really? A Review of the Literature, such as It Is
Some six or so years ago, not long after I had started working as a programmer, I developed a bad case of repetitive strain injury (RSI) and for a while couldn't use my left hand for typing, but had to rely on my right hand and dictation. This sit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dTaL7qDreYirurgez/how-bad-is-qwerty-really-a-review-of-the-literature-such-as |
# Personal blogging as self-imposed oppression
*You Should Start a Blog Right Now!*
Or should you? You can find some blog posts about the [benefits of blogging](https://guzey.com/personal/why-have-a-blog/) but I can't think of many that explore the potential harms. I can think of some reasons why blogging — especiall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tE9jdYC82RocquqX5/personal-blogging-as-self-imposed-oppression |
# Nudging My Way Out Of The Intellectual Mosh Pit
As part of my ongoing [effort](https://acesounderglass.com/2021/12/04/dear-self-we-need-to-t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ue4nobero9qR9CcAh/nudging-my-way-out-of-the-intellectual-mosh-pit |
# Reflections on Connect Developers
I was working on creating a [projects page](https://adamzerner.bearblog.dev/projects/) for my personal website, https://adamzerner.bearblog.dev/. It hit me how many of my projects have been failures, and that I should reflect on them to see what I can learn. Perhaps I'll reflect on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w2gdeJgcGfSWaftMu/reflections-on-connect-developers |
# Trying to Keep the Garden Well
I used to live in city-subsidized housing. It was an apartment complex with a big garden.
To enjoy the garden in the summer, residents started putting old chairs and a table outside. Once summer was over, they didn't bother to take them inside again. The table became weathered and di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RRgSBCzq63JxcdGAS/trying-to-keep-the-garden-well |
# Long covid: probably worth avoiding—some considerations
I hear friends reasoning, “I’ll get covid eventually and long covid probably isn’t that bad; therefore it’s not worth much to avoid it now”. Here are some things informing my sense that that’s an error:
**A. Really bad anecdotes aren’t hard to find.**
I [aske... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JiLcxpWzCrnwkndsT/long-covid-probably-worth-avoiding-some-considerations |
# Some thoughts on "The Nature of Counterfactuals"
*This is a* [*response*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gzw6FwPD9FeL4GTWC/usd1000-usd-prize-circular-dependency-of-counterfactuals) *to the post* [*The Nature of Counterfactuals*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T4Mef9ZkL4WftQBqw/the-nature-of-counterfactuals) *by* [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euDWQDKRwMkdrpfGr/some-thoughts-on-the-nature-of-counterfactuals |
# New Year Review Resources
I’ve gathered together a handful of resources here on yearly reviews and setting new years goals. …Just in time for everyone to have wrapped up their new years reflections. Oh well, better late than never, right?
These aren’t particularly cohesive or polished. I recommend you skim through ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhEdDwczwfe7d6zWc/new-year-review-resources |
# Notes on Rationality
> “The knowledge of the theory of logic has no tendency whatever to make men good reasoners.” —Thomas Macaulay[^wns77wj4i5]
This post examines the virtue of **rationality**. I’ve been dreading this one.
I have been writing a sequence of posts about virtues, and strategies for strengthening the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/opBFmhnQ8HycfYkjH/notes-on-rationality |
# Teaching Street Crossing
When Lily was about four we started practicing crossing streets. There were two small streets on the way to the [farther park](https://www.jefftk.com/p/the-best-toy-in-the-park), and Lily was very excited about the idea of crossing them by herself. After talking through the process (look bot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPjBLjL6qRWPn9G9c/teaching-street-crossing |
# Entropy isn't sufficient to measure password strength
If you know a lot about passwords, you probably know that it’s good to choose a password from a distribution $W$with a lot of “entropy”. The (Shannon) entropy of a distribution is defined as:
$H(W) = \sum_w\mathrm{P}(w) \log\frac{1}{\mathrm{P}(w)}$
This definit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mv6CEABhCLFZpQSR7/entropy-isn-t-sufficient-to-measure-password-strength |
# Challenges with Breaking into MIRI-Style Research
Trying to break into MIRI-style[^bumcs1si1j] research seems to be much, much harder than trying to break into ML-style safety research. This is worrying if you believe this research to be important[^13410j7g67vg]. I'll examine two kinds of causes: those which come fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kcbo4rXu3jYPnauoK/challenges-with-breaking-into-miri-style-research |
# Guidelines for cold messaging people
I just received a random email from a stranger in which they ask me 5-10 hard-to-answer questions on effective altruism, emotional health, and moral cluelessness that bother them.
Reflecting on this, I came up with a list of eight rules of thumb you might want to consider whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dQzjXF4joxMbMb55y/guidelines-for-cold-messaging-people |
# Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
Polymarket’s prediction markets are back and they are more plentiful than ever, both on Covid-19 and otherwise. Americans are not eligible to trade, but plenty of my readers reside elsewhere. And even if you can’t trade, the information component is still free.
Liquidity in any given m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dp9CgmSwNPuMkQZqx/polymarket-covid-19-1-17-2022 |
# Different way classifiers can be diverse
*With thanks to Lee Sharkey and Michael Cohen for the conversations that lead to these ideas.*
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xujLGRKFLKsPCTimd/p/oCWk8QpjgyqbFHKtK), I talked about how we could train classifiers on the same classification problem - a set of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rv65vAPqpZGFLcnnD/different-way-classifiers-can-be-diverse |
# Truthful LMs as a warm-up for aligned AGI
*This post is heavily informed by prior work, most notably that of Owain Evans, Owen Cotton-Barratt and others (*[*Truthful AI*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/aBixCPqSnTsPsTJBQ/truthful-ai-developing-and-governing-ai-that-does-not-lie)*), Beth Barnes (*[*Risks from AI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jWkqACmDes6SoAiyE/truthful-lms-as-a-warm-up-for-aligned-agi |
# How I'm thinking about GPT-N
There has been a lot of hand-wringing about accelerating AI progress within the AI safety community since OpenAI's publication of their [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) and [Scaling Laws](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.8361) papers. OpenAI's clear explication of scaling provides a j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iQabBACQwbWyHFKZq/how-i-m-thinking-about-gpt-n |
# Scalar reward is not enough for aligned AGI
This post was authored by Peter Vamplew and Cameron Foale (Federation University), and Richard Dazeley (Deakin University)
**Introduction**
Recently some of the most well-known researchers in reinforcement learning Silver, Singh, Precup and Sutton published a paper entit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eeEEgNeTepZb6F6NF/scalar-reward-is-not-enough-for-aligned-agi |
# The ignorance of normative realism bot
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/01/17/the-ignorance-of-normative-realism-bot/))
> *And you want to travel with her, and you want to travel blind*
> *And then you know that she will trust you*
> *For you’ve touched her perfect body with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NpwPi5HkKpcAvexJz/the-ignorance-of-normative-realism-bot |
# Positly covid survey: long covid
Here are some more careful results from a [survey](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2022/01/14/preliminary-long-covid-survey.html) I ran the other day on [Positly](https://app.positly.com/), to test whether it’s trivial to find people who have had their lives seriously impacted by l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTH6gizyXFxxthkDa/positly-covid-survey-long-covid |
# Thought Experiments Provide a Third Anchor
Previously, [I argued](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/future-ml-systems-will-be-qualitatively-different/) that we should expect future ML systems to often exhibit "emergent" behavior, where they acquire new capabilities that were not explicitly designed or intended, simply... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tcyvthAkAtQ72P7Qd/thought-experiments-provide-a-third-anchor |
# You Can Get Fluvoxamine
[_TLDR: I paid $95 for a 10 minute video consultation with a doctor, told them I was depressed and wanted fluvoxamine, and got my prescription immediately._]
I'm not a doctor, and this isn't medical advice. If you want information on the status of fluvoxamine as a Covid treatment, you can se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/adtBhKnLRp9JpM8vB/you-can-get-fluvoxamine |
# Omicron Post #15
Omicron has fully taken over, and our uncertainty about it has mostly been resolved. The Omicron pandemic is now the Covid-19 pandemic, and we’re back in a kind of ‘normal mode’ albeit at the top of the Omicron wave.
A few weeks ago, the majority of the information and week’s discussion were in the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tqxfCa6r2yggquenD/omicron-post-15 |
# Action: Help expand funding for AI Safety by coordinating on NSF response
*Thanks to Frances Lorenz and Shiri for their feedback on a draft of this post. *
***tl;dr: Please*** [***fill out this short form***](https://airtable.com/shrk0bAxm0EeJbyPC) ***if you might be willing to take a few small, simple actions in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vq6ztCgFczuH53f4Y/action-help-expand-funding-for-ai-safety-by-coordinating-on |
# Speed Pasta Bake
Lily loves pasta bake: pasta, tomato sauce, and cheese baked until the cheese at the top is a bit crispy. Unfortunately, this needs about 45min in the oven. But, just like [with quesadillas](https://www.jefftk.com/p/two-minute-quesadillas), you can make it much faster by doing most of the heating in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wLqDbKbECWipnrtCB/speed-pasta-bake |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Psychomagic | Chapter 3: Intelligence Explosions
*This is a Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality fan-fiction which contains spoilers. If you haven't, you should* [*read*](http://www.hpmor.com/) *or* [*listen*](https://hpmorpodcast.com/?page_id=56) *to Eliezer Yudkowsky's origin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A6rYai7PeGakePazu/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-psychomagic-or-chapter-3 |
# Too right to write
When I want to inflate my CV I'll often claim I'm experienced as a 'professional writer.' Truth is, I worked for a couple of years at a tiny marketing agency in remote northern England, where I ended up handling many of the copywriting tasks and all the proofreading, because I go pretty alright at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qkksjjvTpyWudkDX7/too-right-to-write |
# Land Ho!
[I love this modest proposal so much I am making an exception to my no-New-York-Times rule](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/opinion/eric-adams-manhattan-expand.html), and split it off from what was going to be a bonus section in the weekly Covid post. Time to think big.
_Both Mayors [Bill de Blasio](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JubGQqbL7rBuutqrX/land-ho |
# Choosing battles (on the Internet)
A couple years ago, I noticed that I'd been holding onto a mindset that was counterproductive, and I've often seen this same mindset in some of the online communities I visit. I like talking with people who believe in the truth-seeking power of good-faith disagreements, but some of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4cJs3WKAobS2aTGZp/choosing-battles-on-the-internet |
# Estimating training compute of Deep Learning models
*by Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Marius Hobbhahn, Tamay Besiroglu, and Anson Ho*
**_You can find the complete article [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J2BX9jkE5nN5EA1zYRN0lHhdCf1YkiFERc_nwiYqCOA/edit?usp=sharing). We provide a short summary below._**
In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvqQm6o8KnwxbdmhZ/estimating-training-compute-of-deep-learning-models |
# Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron
The Omicron and Weekly posts are now combined, so this includes the last day’s Omicron developments, which will be how it works going forward. Next week’s will include the probability updates section as well. When there is urgent news, I’ll supplement as appropriate.
This week was the pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mkjHLmyc46YtZDhme/covid-1-20-22-peak-omicron |
# Anchor Weights for ML
In the [previous post](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/thought-experiments-provide-a-third-anchor/), I talked about several "anchors" that we could use to think about future ML systems, including current ML systems, humans, ideal optimizers, and complex systems.
In fact, I think we should be u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MzLxPCF2cMJbMizy9/anchor-weights-for-ml |
# Risk and Safety in the age of COVID
## Intro:
When analyzing the dangers of COVID or proposing policies to combat it, there is a utilitarian cost-benefit framing which is implicitly assumed. Perhaps the best example of this is the [Micro Covid calculator](https://www.microcovid.org/). Every action has a cost and be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uQHHwj3vPRnMHjSzx/risk-and-safety-in-the-age-of-covid |
# Emotions = Reward Functions
*... Or more specifically, a post on how, and why, to encode emotions to find out more about goals, rationality and safe alignment in general.*
If one tries to naively fit reinforcement learning’s reward functions back onto the human mind, the closest equivalent one may find is emo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ccE9WvXLacGkFEoi/emotions-reward-functions |
# What's Up With Confusingly Pervasive Goal Directedness?
*Fictionalized/Paraphrased version of a real dialog between me and John Wentworth.*
**Fictionalized Me:** So, in the Eliezer/Richard dialogs, Eliezer is trying to get across this idea that consequentialism deeply permeates optimization, and this is important, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJnvFsZ2maKxPi7v7/what-s-up-with-confusingly-pervasive-goal-directedness |
# The Liar and the Scold
When I found my faith, I had an almost solipsistic view of other people.
They say that is how we all start off. But I think I am unusual in that I remember the moment that I realized others, too, were *themselves*. I remember not because I was precocious. Rather, because I was stunted in this... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/duF4Qh9pn7Y5imhsm/the-liar-and-the-scold |
# Implications of Civilizational Inadequacy (reviewing mazes/simulacra/etc)
*This was written for the* [*LessWrong Review*](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/M9kDqF2fn3WH44nrv/the-2020-review)*, intended as a high level exploration of the 2020 posts on Moral Mazes, Simulacra, Coordination Theory, and Civilizational A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2YNE26jSSRdcGYeif/implications-of-civilizational-inadequacy-reviewing-mazes |
# High-Impact Careers for Mathematicians (Online Workshop by EA Cambridge)
At Effective Altruism Cambridge we are organising an online careers workshop, specifically designed for maths students who might be interested in doing something useful with their quantitative skills.
Full info is on the Facebook event [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/7YKLmWSDYdwvnmrBk/high-impact-careers-for-mathematicians-online-workshop-by-ea |
# How to Become a Magician
[*Crossposted*](https://www.nicoledieker.com/p/how-to-become-a-magician) *from* [*Nicole Dieker Dot Com*](https://www.nicoledieker.com/)*, naturally. I wrote this one before I started following the LW community, so "magician" can be replaced with "hero" if you want — although I like using "m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yrhkeGNLtxjjhGwob/how-to-become-a-magician |
# [AN #171]: Disagreements between alignment "optimists" and "pessimists"
Listen to this newsletter on **[The Alignment Newsletter Podcast](http://alignment-newsletter.libsyn.com/)**.
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment New... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3vFmQhHBosnjZXuAJ/an-171-disagreements-between-alignment-optimists-and |
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