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# What is moral foundation theory good for?
I've seen [Jonathan Haidt](/lw/bs3/intelligence_explosion_vs_cooperative_explosion/) [mentioned](/lw/1v0/signaling_strategies_and_morality/) [on](/lw/74f/are_deontological_moral_judgments_rationalizations/) Less Wrong a few times, and so when I saw [an article](http://online... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MtRgQB2k72eCvufdS/what-is-moral-foundation-theory-good-for |
# The Fallacy of Large Numbers
I've been seeing this a lot lately, and I don't think it's been written about here before
Let's start with a motivating example. Suppose you have a fleet of 100 cars (or horses, or people, or whatever). For any given car, on any given day, there's a 3% chance that it'll be out for rep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R8DBQD72tajt4mDhv/the-fallacy-of-large-numbers |
# What are your questions about making a difference?
How can you best use your time to make a difference?
[80,000 Hours](http://www.80000hours.org) now has several people working full time on research, and they would like your questions!
We’re happy to consider any questions about how to effectively make a differenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzShxYcRz7K7oNtsB/what-are-your-questions-about-making-a-difference |
# Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders
**Related to:** [The Apologist and the Revolutionary](/lw/20/the_apologist_and_the_revolutionary/), [Dreams with Damaged Priors](/lw/13b/dreams_with_damaged_priors/)
Several years ago, [I posted](/lw/20/the_apologist_and_the_revolutionary/) about [V.S. Ram... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-schizophrenics-reasoning-in-delusional-disorders |
# Cynical explanations of FAI critics (including myself)
**Related Posts:** [A cynical explanation for why rationalists worry about FAI](/lw/dy8/a_cynical_explanation_for_why_rationalists_worry/), [A belief propagation graph](/lw/bl2/a_belief_propagation_graph/)
Lately I've been pondering the fact that while there ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cqo5uKA6r8jickEhA/cynical-explanations-of-fai-critics-including-myself |
# Why Don't People Help Others More?
As Peter Singer writes in his book [**The Life You Can Save**](http://www.amazon.com/dp/1400067103): "\[t\]he world would be a much simpler place if one could bring about social change merely by making a logically consistent moral argument". Many people one encounters might agree t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jisCHmxwmKoNwrRst/why-don-t-people-help-others-more |
# Let's be friendly to our allies
Less Wrong was created to produce rationalists, [so that many causes could benefit from the efforts of those rationalists](/lw/66/rationality_common_interest_of_many_causes/). The point is not just to have nice place to talk about rationality, but to [really make ourselves stronger](/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9F2A8pdPwR7u5eC57/let-s-be-friendly-to-our-allies |
# The weakest arguments for and against human level AI
While going through the list of arguments for why to expect human level AI to happen or be impossible I was stuck by the same tremendously weak arguments that kept on coming up again and again. The weakest argument in favour of AI was the perenial:
* Moore's La... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QSnZM5JZxCboMh8Qf/the-weakest-arguments-for-and-against-human-level-ai |
# Luke is doing an AMA on Reddit
I'm sure most of us are used to just being able to badger him about things in the comments here on LW, but for anyone interested [here's the link](http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/ "http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/y9lm0/i_am_luke_muehlha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C7ToLLwe2GyADoKtc/luke-is-doing-an-ama-on-reddit |
# Competence in experts: summary
Just giving a short table-summary of an [article](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E) by James Shanteau on which areas and tasks experts developed a good intuition - and which ones they didn't. Though the article is old, the results seem to be in agreemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yrNW4ApXrpn2KMhxr/competence-in-experts-summary |
# Who Wants To Start An Important Startup?
_**SUMMARY**: __Let's collect people who want to work on for-profit companies that have significant positive impacts on many people's lives._
Google provides a huge service to the world - efficient search of a vast amount of data. I would really like to see more for-profit b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YbCc3NRrr5avvWSHT/who-wants-to-start-an-important-startup |
# Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
(This post is motivated by [recent](/lw/dy9/solving_the_two_envelopes_problem/) [discussions](/lw/e26/who_wants_to_start_an_important_startup/77e3) here of the two titular topics.)
Suppose someone hands you two envelopes and gives you some information that allows you to conclude eit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZBq4H9tdkm5MgC8hL/kelly-criteria-and-two-envelopes |
# AI timeline predictions: are we getting better?
**EDIT**: _Thanks to [Kaj's](/lw/e36/ai_timeline_predictions_are_we_getting_better/77gd) work, we now have more rigorous evidence on the "Maes-Garreau law" (the idea that people will predict AI coming before they die). This post has been updated with extra information.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/47ci9ixyEbGKWENwR/ai-timeline-predictions-are-we-getting-better |
# Proposed rewrites of LW home page, about page, and FAQ
**Proposed rewrites can be found [here](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/User:John_Maxwell_IV). Please suggest specific improvements in the comments!**
Although long-time Less Wrong users don't pay much attention to the home page, about page, and FAQ, I suspect ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TD2bn6MNXmecW4YWY/proposed-rewrites-of-lw-home-page-about-page-and-faq |
# An angle of attack on Open Problem #1
<del>**There is [a problem with the proof here](/lw/e4e/an_angle_of_attack_on_open_problem_1/7858) and I have to think about whether I can fix it.** Thanks to vi21maobk9vp for [pointing me in the right direction](/lw/e4e/an_angle_of_attack_on_open_problem_1/7854)!</del> _**I hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DDJr5fuR5jeD47k9g/an-angle-of-attack-on-open-problem-1 |
# [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I'm dying young
Saw this on reddit.
[http://www.reddit.com/r/atheism/comments/ydsy5/reddit\_help\_me\_find\_some\_peace\_in\_dying\_young_im/](http://www.reddit.com/r/atheism/comments/ydsy5/reddit_help_me_find_some_peace_in_dying_young_im/)
> Hey Reddit,
>
> I'm a 23 year ol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fLaKKRZckYtrrcz7m/link-reddit-help-me-find-some-peace-i-m-dying-young |
# How to get cryocrastinators to actually sign up for cryonics
At the end of CFAR's July Rationality Minicamp, we had a party with people from the LW/SIAI/CFAR community in the San Francisco Bay area. During this party, I had a conversation with the girlfriend of a participant in a previous minicamp, who was not signe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4RXMhsXyagTW2qKf/how-to-get-cryocrastinators-to-actually-sign-up-for-cryonics |
# LessWrong could grow a lot, but we're doing it wrong.
How do I know this? I got a copy of the website analytics.
The bounce rate for LessWrong's home page is 60%!
To be clear: Over half the people who visit LessWrong are going away without even clicking anything.
Yet how many NEW visitors are there? Alm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEtLkHyPhG8m4aepb/lesswrong-could-grow-a-lot-but-we-re-doing-it-wrong |
# [Link] Social interventions gone wrong
[A piece](http://80000hours.org/blog/66-social-interventions-gone-wrong) I saw that Benjamin Todd adapted from [THINK](http://www.thehighimpactnetwork.org/)'s module on charity assessment. Some of you may recall the network's [recent launch](/r/discussion/lw/dyj/the_high_impac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2HZLjKvfhX929nWY/link-social-interventions-gone-wrong |
# Risk aversion does not explain people's betting behaviours
Expected utility maximalisation is an excellent _prescriptive_ decision theory. It has all the [nice properties](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem#The_axioms) that we want and need in a decision theory, and can be a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msf7BHMrWTczbQckh/risk-aversion-does-not-explain-people-s-betting-behaviours |
# Can we teach Rationality at the University of Reddit?
[This was posted a few hours ago](http://blog.reddit.com/2012/08/university-of-reddit-explore-any.html "University of Reddit"). Basically, the reddit admins have decided to promote the so-called "University of Reddit", a subreddit where people can offer and teach... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qrzSizRWkomktLTFh/can-we-teach-rationality-at-the-university-of-reddit |
# [LINK] Strong AI Startup Raises $15M
[http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/21/vicarious-good-ventures-funding/](http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/21/vicarious-good-ventures-funding/)
> Vicarious, a startup that says it’s “building software that thinks and learns like a human,” has just raised a $15 million Series A.
>
> The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Huzu9MiGykC5oH8Jt/link-strong-ai-startup-raises-usd15m |
# Four major problems with neuroscience
A discussion of [four errors](http://neurobonkers.com/2012/08/21/the-science-of-bad-neuroscience/) which lead to false positives-- neglecting maturation (that brains change with time, even without intervention, learning effects (people who take a test more than once get better a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uHhX2XMTgifFBYGTb/four-major-problems-with-neuroscience |
# AI timeline prediction data
The data forming the background of my [analysis](/lw/e36/ai_timeline_predictions_are_we_getting_better/ ) of AI timeline predictions is now available online. Many thanks to Jonathan Wang and Brian Potter, who gathered the data, to [Kaj Sotala](http://kajsotala.fi/), who analysed and categ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q6oWinLaKXmGNWGLy/ai-timeline-prediction-data |
# Heading off a near-term AGI arms race
I know people have talked about this in the past, but now seems like an important time for some practical brainstorming here. Hypothetical: the recent $15mm Series A funding of Vicarious by Good Ventures and Founders Fund sets off a wave of $450mm in funded AGI projects of appro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ADyGe6rMMoCYMTxhg/heading-off-a-near-term-agi-arms-race |
# How to cheat Löb's Theorem: my second try
In his [open problems talk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwriJqBZyoM), Eliezer explains how Löb's theorem prevents you from having a consistent proof system P with an axiom schema that anything P proves is actually true, and asks how we can then "build an AI that could co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EqCxSMZoZPmdARCTm/how-to-cheat-loeb-s-theorem-my-second-try |
# What's Wrong with Evidential Decision Theory?
With all the exotic [decision theories](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Decision_theory) floating around here, it doesn't seem like anyone has tried to defend boring old [evidential decision theory](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidential_decision_theory) since AlexMennen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RtPC6cmKLftbLSn6n/what-s-wrong-with-evidential-decision-theory |
# Cryonics donation fund for Kim Suozzi established by Society for Venturism
Following the news that [Kim Suozzi has terminal brain cancer and wants to be cryopreserved](/r/discussion/lw/e5d/link_reddit_help_me_find_some_peace_im_dying_young/), many of us have donated to help her out, while others, including me, plann... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/89MjaiTADzYXAQ6tb/cryonics-donation-fund-for-kim-suozzi-established-by-society |
# Mike Darwin on animal research, moral cowardice, and reasoning in an uncaring universe
He writes [this essay](http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/New_Cryonet/message/2889) in response to someone who writes about their "gut level emotional response when \[they\] thought about dogs being likely killed by an as yet unpr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ghtsPkTQ7JhZtjjsB/mike-darwin-on-animal-research-moral-cowardice-and-reasoning |
# Decision Theories, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire
**Followup to:** [Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part III](/lw/b7w/decision_theories_a_semiformal_analysis_part_iii/)
**UPDATE: As it turns out, rumors of Masquerade's demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated. See [this post](/lw/ebx/decision_th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ShD7EHb4HmPgfveim/decision-theories-part-3-5-halt-melt-and-catch-fire |
# The noncentral fallacy - the worst argument in the world?
**Related to:** [Leaky Generalizations](/lw/lc/leaky_generalizations/), [Replace the Symbol With The Substance](/lw/nv/replace_the_symbol_with_the_substance/), [Sneaking In Connotations](/lw/ny/sneaking_in_connotations/)
David Stove once [ran a contest](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncentral-fallacy-the-worst-argument-in-the-world |
# UPDATE: Society of Venturism is spearheading Kim Suozzi's cryopreservation charity
Hey everyone,
I'm Kim Suozzi, a 23-year old brain cancer patient trying to secure cryopreservation before my death.
I know I haven't updated in awhile so I just wanted to check in and say how thankful I am for everyone that has been... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hozfqzhDrMAcwsHN6/update-society-of-venturism-is-spearheading-kim-suozzi-s |
# What is the evidence in favor of paleo?
I recently [came out against paleo](/lw/e3a/open_thread_august_1631_2012/79ke) in the open thread, and realized that I probably haven't yet heard the strongest arguments in favor of a paleo diet. So, what are said arguments?
EDIT: Or more generally, why should I eat less carb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e2kMPiFwh4oQNuprp/what-is-the-evidence-in-favor-of-paleo |
# Anyone know of empirically driven lobbying efforts?
I was recently in an argument with a friend about the efficacy of WhiteHouse.gov petitions. He was disappointed that atheists hadn't pushed the Free Alexander Aan petition up to 25,000 signatures and thought this was a bad sign for future projects. I thought it w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5RCiviZijkgn7QSf/anyone-know-of-empirically-driven-lobbying-efforts |
# A model of UDT with a concrete prior over logical statements
I've been having difficulties with constructing a toy scenario for AI self-modification more interesting than [Quirrell's game](/lw/e4e/an_angle_of_attack_on_open_problem_1/), because you really want to do expected utility maximization of some sort, but cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PgKADaJE4ERjtMtP9/a-model-of-udt-with-a-concrete-prior-over-logical-statements |
# What's the Value of Information?
I posted this problem to my own blog the other day. When I posted it, I thought it looked very easy, more fiddly than difficult:
> The eccentric millionaire Oswald Mega walks into a bar and he says:
>
> "This morning, I was showing my newborn about Dungeons and Dragons. We took a c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCc8i57z6Rwvy2KCd/what-s-the-value-of-information |
# [META] Karma for last 30 days?
Has anyone yet mentioned or reported that for the last couple days, the "karma for last 30 days" is showing zero for everyone? And that we no longer can see the top contributors for the last 30 days either?
Do we have an explanation or estimation for a bugfix on this? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mPJu6d2jMwvGuB2BT/meta-karma-for-last-30-days |
# Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models
Non-causal models
-----------------
Non-causal models are quite common in many fields, and can be quite accurate. Here predictions are made, based on (a particular selection of) past trends, and it is assumed that these trends will continue in future. There is no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YMwf9agAPTJPqgk9h/counterfactual-resiliency-test-for-non-causal-models |
# Utility functions and quantum mechanics
Interpreting quantum mechanics throws an interesting wrench into utility calculation.
Utility functions, according to the interpretation typical in these parts, are a function of the state of the world, and an agent with consistent goals acts to maximize the expected value of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5GdiGa5SGhJnDEK8/utility-functions-and-quantum-mechanics |
# Dealing with trolling and the signal to noise ratio
The recent implementation of a -5 karma penalty for replying to comments that are at -3 or below has clearly met with some disagreement and controversy. See [http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/eb9/meta\_karma\_for\_last\_30_days/7aon](/r/discussion/lw/eb9/meta_ka... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eoKXr9XDR9nXeeEWF/dealing-with-trolling-and-the-signal-to-noise-ratio |
# [Link] Quantity Always Trumps Quality
[http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2008/08/quantity-always-trumps-quality.html](http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2008/08/quantity-always-trumps-quality.html)
> The ceramics teacher announced on opening day that he was dividing the class into two groups. All those on the left sid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/znr2hZhcwmLtqRpEk/link-quantity-always-trumps-quality |
# Meta: What do you think of a karma vote checklist?
I'm imagining an optional checklist offered if you downvote, with the list possibly including troll, poor spelling/grammar, false, redundant....
For that matter, if an optional checklist for downvotes makes sense, then perhaps there should also be one for upvotes: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvjqrMFw7DkwYvZWi/meta-what-do-you-think-of-a-karma-vote-checklist |
# Preventing discussion from being watered down by an "endless September" user influx.
In the thread ["LessWrong could grow a lot, but we're doing it wrong."](/lw/e5r/lesswrong_could_grow_a_lot_but_were_doing_it_wrong/), I explained why LessWrong has the potential to grow quite a lot faster in my opinion, and volunt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MLaSGq6A6bLTdt6r8/preventing-discussion-from-being-watered-down-by-an-endless |
# How to tell apart science from pseudo-science in a field you don't know ?
First, a short personal note to make you understand why this is important to me. To make a long story short, the son of a friend has some atypical form of autism and language troubles. And that kid matters a lot to me, so I want to become stro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAKQn87Duq9gwcZdT/how-to-tell-apart-science-from-pseudo-science-in-a-field-you |
# Dragon Ball's Hyperbolic Time Chamber
> A time dilation tool from an anime is discussed for its practical use on Earth; there seem surprisingly few uses and none that will change the world, due to the severe penalties humans would incur while using it, and basic constraints like Amdahl's law limit the scientific use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PvdvsZQwDr2PD3wFW/dragon-ball-s-hyperbolic-time-chamber |
# What's your "rationalist arguing" origin story?
By rationalist arguing, I mean the sort of argument where you'd rather have the right belief at the end than "win." This is quite different from the usual rationalization competition style of argument, and is pretty rare. But somehow, it happens on LessWrong a lot. It ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xtws3XGkgsgfWF5E/what-s-your-rationalist-arguing-origin-story |
# How To Actually Change Your Mind eBook (In Order)
Firstly, if this has already been created, then I apologize, but I couldn't find it and I looked.
I wanted to read the how to change your mind sequence on my eBook reader, but when I looked around the site I couldn't find any eBooks other than large ones with the bl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DGnXAFRiepCTNWrNz/how-to-actually-change-your-mind-ebook-in-order |
# Debugging the Quantum Physics Sequence
This article should really be called "Patching the argumentative flaw in the Sequences created by the Quantum Physics Sequence".
There's only one big thing wrong with that Sequence: the central factual claim is wrong. I don't mean the claim that the Many Worlds interpretation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ueQBEaY6a7n5hDeWP/debugging-the-quantum-physics-sequence |
# LessWrong Wiki as Anki deck
I've ported the [Less Wrong Wiki](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/LessWrong_Wiki) into an Anki deck. I hope this will be useful for new members as an alternative way to get acquainted with many interesting LessWrong concepts (Newcomb's problem? Superexponential conceptspace?).
A disclaime... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xd8aQsZroPYN4CZXM/lesswrong-wiki-as-anki-deck |
# Cleaning up the "Worst Argument" essay
_There was a lot of controversy over the Worst Argument essay, which surprised me because the basic point seems hard to argue with. I'd like to change it in response to feedback, with the new title "Guilt by Association". Below is the rough draft for the new version, minus a fe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TyQSMmoJpRG3HBv5S/cleaning-up-the-worst-argument-essay |
# Decision Theories, Part 3.75: Hang On, I Think This Works After All
**Followup to:** [Decision Theories, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire](/lw/e94/decision_theories_part_35_halt_melt_and_catch_fire/), [Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part III](/lw/b7w/decision_theories_a_semiformal_analysis_part_iii/)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X9vT3o3MmtWoRRKkm/decision-theories-part-3-75-hang-on-i-think-this-works-after |
# Link: Toward Non-Stupid, Non-Blank-Slatey Polyandry
http://theviewfromhell.blogspot.com/2012/09/toward-non-stupid-non-blank-slatey.html
The author gives a shout out to Less Wrong as a community with a perpetually skewed gender ratio, which is precisely the conditions under which polyandry appears to thrive.
Discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KKF9vs4iGrmfyorgB/link-toward-non-stupid-non-blank-slatey-polyandry |
# Jews and Nazis: a version of dust specks vs torture
This is based on a discussion in #lesswrong a few months back, and I am not sure how to resolve it.
Setup: suppose the world is populated by two groups of people, one just wants to be left alone (labeled Jews), the other group hates the first one with passion and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mfS9u858bge7gvdnG/jews-and-nazis-a-version-of-dust-specks-vs-torture |
# Friendship is Optimal: A My Little Pony fanfic about an optimization process
\[EDIT, Nov 14th: And it's posted. [New discussion about release](/r/discussion/lw/fi8/launched_friendship_is_optimal/). Link to _[Friendship is Optimal](http://www.fimfiction.net/story/62074/Friendship-is-Optimal)_.\]
\[EDIT, Nov 13th: I'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHD5m9fnosr7L3dto/friendship-is-optimal-a-my-little-pony-fanfic-about-an |
# How to deal with someone in a LessWrong meeting being creepy
One of the lessons highlighted in the thread "[Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter](/lw/4ul/less_wrong_nyc_case_study_of_a_successful/)" is **Gender ratio matters**.
There have recently been a number of articles addressing one s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qNkCGc3fRCRy5Gbbp/how-to-deal-with-someone-in-a-lesswrong-meeting-being-creepy |
# Meetup report: How harmful is cannabis, and will you change your habits?
[A week ago](/lw/eab/meetup_berkeley_meetup_cannabis_decisionmaking/) the meetup group in Berkeley discussed a new article in PNAS titled ["Persistent cannabis users show neuropsychological decline from childhood to midlife"](http://www.pnas.or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tEnr7S9BwgubF3E2p/meetup-report-how-harmful-is-cannabis-and-will-you-change |
# Interested in learning Linux? Need hosting? Free shells!
Sign up form: [Click Here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFRIb2VZMEJXSEIzQzAxV3V2UnhQM2c6MQ#gid=0)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I own a p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pbgukiwjCyCxQswrT/interested-in-learning-linux-need-hosting-free-shells |
# Call for Anonymous Narratives by LW Women and Question Proposals (AMA)
In another discussion going on right now, I posted [this proposal](/lw/e5h/how_to_deal_with_someone_in_a_lesswrong_meeting/7dou), asking for feedback on this experiment. The feedback was positive, so here goes...
Original Post:
> When these gen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tBraZAHvj2zacSxxu/call-for-anonymous-narratives-by-lw-women-and-question |
# Chief Probability Officer
Stanford Professor Sam Savage (also of [Probability Management](http://probabilitymanagement.org/)) [proposes](http://probabilitymanagement.org/Library/Probability_Management_Part1s.pdf) that large firms appoint a "Chief Probability Officer." Here is a description from Douglas Hubbard's _[H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zgcfswz2p3Rjo9Drr/chief-probability-officer |
# Counterfactual Reprogramming Decision Theory
Surprisingly, Ben Goertzel's ([2010](http://goertzel.org/CounterfactualReprogrammingDecisionTheory.pdf)) Counterfactual Reprogramming Decision Theory (CRDT) has not been discussed even once on Less Wrong, so I present this discussion post as an opportunity to do so.
Here... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kEhSRsdhK6Dn9in7k/counterfactual-reprogramming-decision-theory |
# Personal information management
Several weeks ago, I began using personal wiki software [Zim Wiki](http://zim-wiki.org/) (free and cross-platform for Linux & Windows; I recommend [nvALT](http://brettterpstra.com/projects/nvalt/) on Mac OS X) to record all of my notes-to-self. I've found it to be a nice software too... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/stDijTKuto52M5wQT/personal-information-management |
# Random LW-parodying Statement Generator
So, I were looking at [this](/lw/d2w/cards_against_rationality/), and then suddenly [this thing](http://jsbin.com/ibebih/49) happened.
EDIT:
**[New version](http://jsbin.com/ibebih/49)!** I updated the link above to it as well. Added LOADS and LOADS of new content, although ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wwYdchKSSCDczcD32/random-lw-parodying-statement-generator |
# The Yudkowsky Ambition Scale
From [Hacker News](http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702).
> 1. We're going to build the next Facebook!
> 2. We're going to found the next Apple!
> 3. Our product will create sweeping political change! This will produce a major economic revolution in at least one country! (Seas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mxDAPAuy2b3tkeJRc/the-yudkowsky-ambition-scale |
# Under-acknowledged Value Differences
I've been reading a lot of the recent LW discussions on politics and gender, and noticed that people rarely bring up or explicitly acknowledge that different people affected by some political or gender issue have different values/preferences, and therefore solving the problem inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4XS5LQA6RadkMqdgt/under-acknowledged-value-differences |
# Fallacies of reification - the placebo effect
TL;DR: I align with the minority position that "there is a lot less to the so-called placebo effect than people tend to think there is (and the name is horribly misleading)", a [strong opinion weakly held](http://bobsutton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/07/strong_opinions.ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tjTuzmCYxfsgkKdQx/fallacies-of-reification-the-placebo-effect |
# Experimental psychology on word confusion
There's [plenty of experimental work](http://appliedrationality.org/recommended-reading-on-rationality/) about how humans make poor judgments and decisions, but I haven't yet found much about how humans make poor judgments and decisions _because of confusions about words_. A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AxaSQkHCsqEkGwaGE/experimental-psychology-on-word-confusion |
# How about testing our ideas?
**Related to: ** [Science: Do It Yourself](/lw/3wh/science_do_it_yourself/), [How To Fix Science](/lw/ajj/how_to_fix_science/), Rationality and Science posts from [this sequence](/lw/r5/the_quantum_physics_sequence/), [Cargo Cult Science](http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm), "[... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tNhBXnafzCAvmzmxD/how-about-testing-our-ideas |
# Eliezer's Sequences and Mainstream Academia
Due in part to Eliezer's writing style (e.g. not many citations), and in part to Eliezer's scholarship preferences (e.g. his [preference](/lw/4vr/less_wrong_rationality_and_mainstream_philosophy/3rdb) to figure out much of philosophy on his own), Eliezer's [Sequences](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ASpGaS3HGEQCbJbjS/eliezer-s-sequences-and-mainstream-academia |
# High School Lectures
Just recently at my high school, a group of classmates and I started a science club. A major component of this is listening and giving peer lectures on topics of physics, math, computer science, etc. I picked a topic a bit off to the side: philosophy and decision making. Naturally, this includes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dXgb3BoBNifDP4LEG/high-school-lectures |
# Scientists make monkeys smarter using brain implants [link]
[Article at io9.](http://io9.com/5943379/for-the-first-time-ever-scientists-have-made-monkeys-smarter-using-brain-implants-could-you-be-next) The paper is available [here](http://iopscience.iop.org/1741-2552/9/5/056012).
The researchers showed monkeys spec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R8GaJcRWbZFAJzDJH/scientists-make-monkeys-smarter-using-brain-implants-link |
# [LINK] Motivational Versus Metabolic Effects of Carbohydrates on Self-Control
> Self-control is critical for achievement and well-being. However, people’s capacity for self-control is limited and becomes depleted through use. One prominent explanation for this depletion posits that self-control consumes energy throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gzRscwxmMrLPu2SLq/link-motivational-versus-metabolic-effects-of-carbohydrates |
# Meta: What tool turns rich text into clean HTML?
If you write an article in [Word](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Word), [Writer](http://www.libreoffice.org/features/writer/), [Scrivener](http://www.literatureandlatte.com/scrivener.php), [Google Docs](https://docs.google.com/), or another rich text editor, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nnQ7HXkdkSX4z7XG6/meta-what-tool-turns-rich-text-into-clean-html |
# The Bayesian Agent
**Followup to:** [Reinforcement Learning: A Non-Standard Introduction](/lw/dux/reinforcement_learning_a_nonstandard_introduction/), [Reinforcement, Preference and Utility](/lw/dz4/reinforcement_preference_and_utility/)
A reinforcement-learning agent interacts with its environment through the perc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G4XKiJ2Q93JGCJxCT/the-bayesian-agent |
# A Less Mysterious Mindfulness Exercise
At the beginning of the year, I stumbled upon a self-help book based on the ideas of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT). I assimilated it insights and started practicing a simple exercise and quickly noticed its effectiveness, to the point of becoming convinced that I had ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8nDfzyimoFcozgGtA/a-less-mysterious-mindfulness-exercise |
# Less Wrong Polls in Comments
You can now write Less Wrong comments that contain polls! John Simon picked up and finished some code I had written back in 2010 but never finished, and our admins Wesley Moore and Matt Fallshaw have deployed it. You can use it right now, so let's give it some testing here in this thread... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jTkcrSJCb5jPjyhYi/less-wrong-polls-in-comments |
# A Critique of Leverage Research's Connection Theory
[Leverage Research](http://www.leverageresearch.org/) is a recently formed New York-based research group "dedicate\[d\] to making the world a better place by the best and most effective means possible". I personally empathize and connect with this mission statement... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8j4zirwfhWhT8nwsc/a-critique-of-leverage-research-s-connection-theory |
# New study on choice blindness in moral positions
Change blindness is the phenomenon whereby people fail to notice changes in scenery and whatnot if they're not directed to pay attention to it. There are countless videos online demonstrating this effect ([one of my favorites here, by Richard Wiseman](http://www.youtu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ekkB4qRZ5yFnMwZGr/new-study-on-choice-blindness-in-moral-positions |
# Principals, agents, negotiation, and precommitments
I'm sure this observation has been made plenty of times before: a principal can gain negotiating power by delegating negotiations to an agent, and restricting that agent's ability to negotiate.
For example: If I'm at a family-owned pizza joint, and I want a slice ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vPW6qPcjsWoQ6LhHS/principals-agents-negotiation-and-precommitments |
# [link] Betting on bad futures
[Garett Jones](http://economics.gmu.edu/people/gjonesb), an economist at George Mason University and guest blogger for [EconLog](http://econlog.econlib.org/), suggests a way for people to bet on apocalyptic events:
[http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/09/how\_to\_bet\_on\_b.html](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKqsCP82KNWFio6sf/link-betting-on-bad-futures |
# High School Lecture - Report
This post is a followup report to [this](/r/discussion/lw/eiy/high_school_lectures/).
On Friday's lecture, I was able to briefly cover several topics as an introduction. They centred around rationality (what it is), truth (what it is and why we should pursue it), and Newcomb's Paradox.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R7stnnwWZDqxmfqge/high-school-lecture-report |
# No Anthropic Evidence
**Closely related to:** [How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?](/lw/u5/how_many_lhc_failures_is_too_many/)
Consider the following thought experiment. At the start, an "original" coin is tossed, but not shown. If it was "tails", a gun is loaded, otherwise it's not. After that, you are offered a bi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tzjWC9Lvqfe454Ttc/no-anthropic-evidence |
# Finally Ending My Cryo-Crastination
I've finally decided to take the plunge and make the arrangements for my eventual cryonic preservation. To help myself make sure that I actually follow through with everything necessary, I'm publicly pre-committing myself here to accomplish that.
As initial evidence that I'm actu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXWvvCPFfiowFp6hB/finally-ending-my-cryo-crastination |
# Why humans are sometimes less rational than animals
[New paper](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Stanovich-Why-Humans-are-Sometimes-Less-Rational-Than-Animals.pdf) from Keith Stanovich (one of my favorite cognitive scientists):
> Several formal analyses in decision theory have shown that if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AndgY2pd96TDdHGFH/why-humans-are-sometimes-less-rational-than-animals |
# Petrov Day Image
[9/26 is Petrov Day](/lw/jq/926_is_petrov_day/)
While mentioning this in Facebook statuses, Tweets, and face-to-face conversation is good, things often stick better when there's a picture associated with them. Image macros are popular, and more fun to share. So here's one for Petrov Day I threw tog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Q8cNnqbKFDcXMh85/petrov-day-image |
# [Poll] Less Wrong and Mainstream Philosophy: How Different are We?
Despite being (IMO) a philosophy blog, many Less Wrongers tend to disparage mainstream philosophy and emphasize the divergence between our beliefs and theirs. But, how different are we really? My intention with this post is to quantify this differenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mPBuTuqShRotscGSP/poll-less-wrong-and-mainstream-philosophy-how-different-are |
# Causality: a chapter by chapter review
This is a chapter by chapter review of [Causality](http://www.amazon.com/Causality-Reasoning-Inference-Judea-Pearl/dp/052189560X/ref=nosim?tag=vglnk-c319-20) (2nd ed.) by Judea Pearl ([UCLA](http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/jp_home.html), [blog](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnjjzkH8Fdzg4D6EK/causality-a-chapter-by-chapter-review |
# From First Principles
Related: [Truly a Part of You](/lw/la/truly_part_of_you/), [What Data Generated That Thought](/lw/5fu/what_data_generated_that_thought/)
Some Case Studies
-----------------
The other day my friend was learning to solder and he asked an experienced hacker for advice. The hacker told him that b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W6oJz6eiQ3q5t84Z3/from-first-principles |
# EY "Politics is the Mind Killer" sighting at Washington Examiner and Reason.com
Original at Washington Examiner
[http://washingtonexaminer.com/down-with-politics/article/2508882#.UGSscI0iYZm](http://washingtonexaminer.com/down-with-politics/article/2508882#.UGSscI0iYZm)
> ...
>
> Politics makes us worse because "... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzZaS4CZAHz2piD9A/ey-politics-is-the-mind-killer-sighting-at-washington |
# MIT Challenge complete
**Followup to:** [MIT Challenge: blogger to attempt CS curriculum on own](/lw/7u6/mit_challenge_blogger_to_attempt_cs_curriculum_on/)
A year after he announced it, productivity blogger [Scott Young](http://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/) has [successfully completed](http://www.scotthyoung.com/blog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ihZkuKz4wBiy2rzkx/mit-challenge-complete |
# Nozick's proposed rules for extrapolating your preferences
You have desires. You also have desires _about your desires_: perhaps you desire cake but you also desire that you _didn't_ desire cake. You also have desires about _the processes which produce your desires_: perhaps you desire X and Y but only because of a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wML432troCaMquidk/nozick-s-proposed-rules-for-extrapolating-your-preferences |
# Introduction to Connectionist Modelling of Cognitive Processes: a chapter by chapter review
_This chapter by chapter review was inspired by [Vaniver's recent chapter by chapter review of Causality](/lw/emc/causality_a_chapter_by_chapter_review/). Like with that review, the intention is not so much to summarize but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9zZBZtk8AYYPpxgnH/introduction-to-connectionist-modelling-of-cognitive |
# The Useful Idea of Truth
*(This is the first post of a new Sequence, Highly Advanced Epistemology 101 for Beginners, setting up the Sequence Open Problems in Friendly AI. For experienced readers, this first post may seem somewhat elementary; but it serves as a basis for what follows. And though it may be conventio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XqvnWFtRD2keJdwjX/the-useful-idea-of-truth |
# Rationality Quotes October 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bH5r7PR72C7H2N32k/rationality-quotes-october-2012 |
# Taking "correlation does not imply causation" back from the internet
(An idea I had while responding to [this quotes thread](/lw/eqe/rationality_quotes_october_2012/7jzf))
"Correlation does not imply causation" is bandied around inexpertly and inappropriately all over the internet. Lots of us hate this.
But get t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5h4wMsndEcfxknu7K/taking-correlation-does-not-imply-causation-back-from-the |
# Parenting and Happiness
If you're trying to decide whether to have kids it would be helpful to know whether you should expect yourself to be happier childfree or as a parent. The press reports it [both](http://parenting.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/having-children-makes-you-relatively-happier/) [ways](http://nymag.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siB3rGkGmn46GFKQt/parenting-and-happiness |
# [Link] The real end of science
From [Gene Expression](http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/) by Razib Khan who some of you may also know from the [old gnxp site](http://www.gnxp.com/) or perhaps from his [BHTV debate with Eliezer](/lw/1qu/bhtv_eliezer_yudkowsky_razib_khan/).
> [
>
> Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman has issued a strongly worded call to one gro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EnySijuuhT673KXWy/link-nobel-laureate-challenges-psychologists-to-clean-up |
# Fun fact: in medical school, we had a mini-lesson on common cognitive errors in medicine
Yesterday in medical school, we had a lecture on common mistakes doctors make. I saw this slide:
Attribution Errors
Confirmation Bias
Commission Bias
Omission Bias
Anchoring
-which made me smile, and thought I'd share.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bKMfJArJPGDG5bBrp/fun-fact-in-medical-school-we-had-a-mini-lesson-on-common |
# Deliberate Practice for Decision Making
_Much of this material is sourced/summarized from [Deliberate Performance: Accelerating Expertise in Natural Settings](http://peterfadde.com/Research/Deliberate_Performance-PI-1011.pdf) and “[The Power of Intuition](http://www.amazon.com/Power-Intuition-Feelings-Better-Decisio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ERYTFGfPfcjRxhkba/deliberate-practice-for-decision-making |
# "Hide comments in downvoted threads" is now active
I just found out that [a new website feature](http://code.google.com/p/lesswrong/issues/detail?id=345) was implemented 2 days ago. If a comment is voted to -4 or below, it and all replies and downstream comments from it will be hidden from Recent Comments, and furth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XrLvxW7Wjo6b9rRCT/hide-comments-in-downvoted-threads-is-now-active |
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