text stringlengths 300 320k | source stringlengths 52 154 |
|---|---|
# We won't be able to recognise the human Gödel sentence
Building on the very bad Gödel [anti-AI argument](/lw/e3m/the_weakest_arguments_for_and_against_human_level/) (computers's are formal and can't prove their own [Gödel sentence](/lw/93q/completeness_incompleteness_and_what_it_all_means/), hence no AI), it occurre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hjSSSJdLEt8enediP/we-won-t-be-able-to-recognise-the-human-goedel-sentence |
# [Link] Technology will destroy human nature
**Related to:** [Kaj Sotala's Posts](/lw/egj/kaj_sotalas_posts/), [Blogs by LWers](/lw/d8t/blogs_by_lwers/)
By fellow LessWronger [Kaj_Sotala](/user/Kaj_Sotala/) on his [blog](http://kajsotala.fi/2012/10/technology-will-destroy-human-nature/).
> [Scott](http://squid314.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F3cQ6zJYiGFy2FpJP/link-technology-will-destroy-human-nature |
# [Link] Inside the Cold, Calculating Mind of LessWrong?
An [article](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444358804578016291138331904.html) from the Wall Street Journal. The original title might be slightly mind-killing for some people, but I found it moderately interesting especially considering that [many ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vAxxBCFDM2oCZ8DxT/link-inside-the-cold-calculating-mind-of-lesswrong |
# What I Learned About Meetup Organization
Related: [How to Run a Successful LW Meetup](/lw/crs/how_to_run_a_successful_less_wrong_meetup/)
(posted to [lw-organizers](http://groups.google.com/group/lw-organizers) and Lesswrong discussion)
I want more discussion of meetup organization tactics, failures, successes, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gcm4pvwEKpydZiKmd/what-i-learned-about-meetup-organization |
# Skill: The Map is Not the Territory
**Followup to**: [The Useful Idea of Truth](/lw/eqn/the_useful_idea_of_truth/) _(minor post)_
So far as I know, the first piece of rationalist fiction - one of only two explicitly rationalist fictions I know of that didn't descend from HPMOR, the other being "David's Sling" by Ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJ9MFBPwXGwNpadf2/skill-the-map-is-not-the-territory |
# Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms
**Followup to**: [The Useful Idea of Truth](/lw/eqn/the_useful_idea_of_truth/)
It is an error mode, and indeed an annoyance mode, to go about preaching the importance of the "Truth", especially if the Truth is supposed to be something incredibly lofty instead of some [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HcCpvYLoSFP4iAqSz/rationality-appreciating-cognitive-algorithms |
# Raising the waterline
Among the goals of Less Wrong is to "[raise the sanity waterline](/lw/1e/raising_the_sanity_waterline/)" of humanity. We've also talked about "raising the [rationality waterline](/lw/8j2/infographic_a_reminder_as_to_how_far_the/)": the phrase is somewhat [popular](/search/results?cx=01583905058... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RiCkRACFwQPsH349u/raising-the-waterline |
# LessWrong help desk - free paper downloads and more
Over the last year, VincentYu, gwern, myself and others have provided 132 academic papers for the LessWrong community (out of 152 requests, a 87% success rate) through the [Free research, editing and articles thread](/r/discussion/lw/7hi/free_research_help_editing_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2jfSi6HhTqWDKLQwm/lesswrong-help-desk-free-paper-downloads-and-more |
# Article sketch: When procrastination isn't akrasia
I have a lot to say on this topic, but I haven't written an article about it, for two reasons... come to think of it, more like for one reason, twice. The first reason is that, while I've learned quite a bit about procrastination in the past few months, I haven't le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WDGcXwSZqabafvJJh/article-sketch-when-procrastination-isn-t-akrasia |
# Firewalling the Optimal from the Rational
**Followup to**: [Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms](/lw/eta/rationality_appreciating_cognitive_algorithms/) _(minor post)_
There's an old anecdote about [Ayn Rand](/lw/m1/guardians_of_ayn_rand/), which Michael Shermer recounts in his "The Unlikeliest Cult in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WbLAA8qZQNdbRgKte/firewalling-the-optimal-from-the-rational |
# Reasons for someone to "ignore" you
I often feel guilty for [ignoring](/lw/1gg/agree_retort_or_ignore_a_post_from_the_future/) other people's comments or questions, and frustrated when other people seem to be ignoring me. If I can't indicate to someone exactly why I'm not answering, or can't receive such an indicati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WmbHx5F3aiEWKD29Y/reasons-for-someone-to-ignore-you |
# Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
**Previously:** [Raising the waterline](/lw/etl/raising_the_waterline/), **see also:** [1001 PredictionBook Nights](http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#predictionbook-nights) ([LW copy](/lw/7z9/1001_predictionbook_nights/)), [Techniques for probability estimates](/lw/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQ8H4e7z3q8ngev7J/raising-the-forecasting-waterline-part-1 |
# Signs you're on LW too much
In the style of Jeff Foxworthy's "[You Might Be A Redneck If...](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7E-isbgwpk)"
If you're waking up and the characters in your dream start asking you to stay asleep a bit longer because they're running on your brain and they don't want to be consigned to obl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mTNBLQ4rLmWrhqhJg/signs-you-re-on-lw-too-much |
# [Link] Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple
[Allen B. Downey](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Downey) has made a rough draft version of his new introduction to Bayesian statistics textbook available for free online. You can download the pdf version [here](http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkbayes/thinkbayes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/72pnYRabXvXRoh5zG/link-think-bayes-bayesian-statistics-made-simple |
# [Link] "Fewer than X% of Americans know Y"
How many times have you heard a claim from a somewhat reputable source like "only 28 percent of Americans are able to name one of the constitutional freedoms, yet 52 percent are able to name at least two Simpsons family members"?
Mark Liberman over at Language Log wrote up... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bdwLHRzxsNkcbFQqX/link-fewer-than-x-of-americans-know-y |
# The Fabric of Real Things
**Followup to**: [The Useful Concept of Truth](/lw/eqn/the_useful_idea_of_truth/)
We previously [asked](/lw/eqn/the_useful_idea_of_truth/7jlu):
_What rule would restrict our beliefs to just statements that can be meaningful, without excluding a priori anything that could in principle be t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h6fzC6wFYFxxKDm8u/the-fabric-of-real-things |
# Raising the forecasting waterline (part 2)
**Previously:** [part 1](/lw/eup/raising_the_forecasting_waterline_part_1/)
The three tactics I described in part 1 are most suited to making an initial forecast. I will now turn to a question that was raised in [comments](/lw/eup/raising_the_forecasting_waterline_part_1/7... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEKHh5nyqhpE3E4Bm/raising-the-forecasting-waterline-part-2 |
# Causal Diagrams and Causal Models
Suppose a general-population survey shows that people who exercise less, weigh more. You don't have any known direction of _time_ in the data - you don't know which came first, the increased weight or the diminished exercise. And you didn't randomly assign half the population to exe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzuSDMx7pd2uxFc5w/causal-diagrams-and-causal-models |
# Notes from Online Optimal Philanthropy Meetup: 12-10-09
Here are my notes from the [Optimal Philanthropy online meeting](/r/discussion/lw/etc/online_optimal_philanthropy_meetup_tue_109_8pm_et/). Things in square brackets are my later additions and corrections. Let me know if there are factual errors or if I've incor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gjsxhyewy2A3GCQY3/notes-from-online-optimal-philanthropy-meetup-12-10-09 |
# Good transhumanist fiction?
I just watched [this](http://vimeo.com/6765616), a very pretty version of "don't try to make yourself different, just accept who you are", and I realized that self-directed change in fiction is a worthwhile topic.
What I'm looking for is stories where main characters change themselves in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5uZiajKCrg2r9yA7z/good-transhumanist-fiction |
# Rationality, Transhumanism, and Mental Health
My name is Brent, and I'm probably insane.
I can perform various experimental tests to verify thatI do not perform primate pack-bonding rituals correctly, which is about half of what we mean by "insane". This concerns me simply from a utilitarian perspective (separation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptz3JKGZ7dgNkGYZT/rationality-transhumanism-and-mental-health |
# Problem of Optimal False Information
This is a thought that occured to me on my way to classes today; sharing it for feedback.
[Omega](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Omega) appears before you, and after presenting an arbitrary proof that it is, in fact, a completely trustworthy superintelligence of the caliber need... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/acTr9pk9PFT9j6tyL/problem-of-optimal-false-information |
# Thinking soberly about the context and consequences of Friendly AI
The project of Friendly AI would benefit from being approached in a much more down-to-earth way. Discourse about the subject seems to be dominated by a set of possibilities which are given far too much credence:
* A single AI will take over the wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/czxjKohS7RQjkBiSD/thinking-soberly-about-the-context-and-consequences-of |
# Happy Ada Lovelace Day
Today is [Ada Lovelace Day](http://findingada.com/), when STEM enthusiasts highlight the work of modern and historical women scientists, engineers, and mathematicians. If you run a blog, you may want to participate by posting about a woman in a STEM field whom you admire. But I'd love to hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZpNvwH4CiGtKuyatG/happy-ada-lovelace-day |
# Looking for alteration suggestions for the official Sequences ebook
As you may have heard, the Singularity Institute is in the process of creating an official ebook version of The Sequences (specifically, Eliezer's Major Sequences written between 2006 and 2009).
Now is an opportune time to make any alterations to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BpCiHdBzAEHumxWav/looking-for-alteration-suggestions-for-the-official |
# How To Have Things Correctly
_I think people who are not made happier by having things either have the wrong things, or have them incorrectly. Here is how I get the most out of my stuff._
Money doesn't buy happiness. If you want to try throwing money at the problem anyway, you should buy experiences like vacation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KT8Mf3ey6uwQAkWek/how-to-have-things-correctly |
# [LINK] The most important unsolved problems in ethics
Will Crouch has written up a list of the [most important unsolved problems in ethics](http://80000hours.org/blog/99-the-most-important-unsolved-problems-in-ethics):
The Practical List
1. **What’s the optimal career choice?** Professional philanthropy, infl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAk6NZg6YDacuCXxg/link-the-most-important-unsolved-problems-in-ethics |
# Stuff That Makes Stuff Happen
**Followup to**: [Causality: The Fabric of Real Things](/lw/eva/the_fabric_of_real_things/)
_Previous [meditation](/lw/eva/the_fabric_of_real_things/#7lqh):_
"You say that a _universe_ is a connected fabric of causes and effects. Well, that's a very Western viewpoint - that it's all a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NhQju3htS9W6p6wE6/stuff-that-makes-stuff-happen |
# 2012 Less Wrong Census Survey: Call For Critiques/Questions
The first draft of the 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey is complete (see 2011 [here](/lw/8p4/2011_survey_results/)). I will link it below if you promise _not to try to take the survey because it's not done yet and this is just an example!_
[**2012 Less Wrong ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QXShCBvPydkwafekn/2012-less-wrong-census-survey-call-for-critiques-questions |
# Causal Reference
**Followup to:** [The Fabric of Real Things](/lw/eva/the_fabric_of_real_things/), [Stuff That Makes Stuff Happen](/lw/ezu/stuff_that_makes_stuff_happen/)
_[Previous meditation](/lw/eva/the_fabric_of_real_things/#7lqi):_ "Does your rule forbid [epiphenomenalist theories of consciousness](/lw/p7/zom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PXoWk554FZ4Gpfvah/causal-reference |
# [Link] Anti-Groupism
A short argument from an interesting blog.
> ### [Anti-Groupism](http://aretae.blogspot.no/2012/10/anti-groupism.html)
>
> Basic Aretaevian talking points:
>
> 1. Human brains are effectively populated by rabbits. Your conscious mind is like a very small person attempting to ride a large... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuJB7y7yunm42DCXr/link-anti-groupism |
# Naive TDT, Bayes nets, and counterfactual mugging
I set out to understand precisely why naive TDT (possibly) fails the [counterfactual mugging](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Counterfactual_mugging) problem. While doing this I ended up drawing a lot of [Bayes nets](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_net), and seemed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DM87z7xQxPNMY4evK/naive-tdt-bayes-nets-and-counterfactual-mugging |
# Recovering the 'spark'
I mentioned in my [first article](/lw/exr/rationality_transhumanism_and_mental_health/) that I am likely insane. I'm reiterating this (I hope) not to bring undue attention to myself, but to present myself as a reference case for a process that I hope will prove useful to myself and others.
I'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4A5dKbnfNAScALcRQ/recovering-the-spark |
# Equality and natalism
I recently read an article by [Steve Sailer](http://takimag.com/article/its_tough_being_tough_steve_sailer/print#axzz2AEIbnft3) that reminded me about something I have been puzzled by for a long time. Relevant paragraphs:
> If intellectuals could afford to have a lot of children, we might liv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTkmy5nzpkPwx8faF/equality-and-natalism |
# [Link] Offense 101
From [Julian Sanchez](http://www.juliansanchez.com/2012/10/23/offense-101/ "Julian Sanchez"), a brilliant idea unlikely to be implemented:
> American politics sometimes seems like a contest to see which group of partisans can take greater umbrage at the most recent outrageous remark from a member... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hw2hq8H5siEf5zmYq/link-offense-101 |
# Cake, or death!
Here we'll look at the famous cake or death problem teasered in the [Value loading/learning](/r/discussion/lw/f32/value_loading/) post.
Imagine you have an agent that is uncertain about its values and designed to "learn" proper values. A formula for this process is that the agent must pick an action... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bdb4F6Lif5AanRAd/cake-or-death |
# If we live in a simulation, what does that imply?
If we live in a simulation, what does that imply about the world of our simulators and our relationship to them? \[[1](#footnote1)\]
Here are some proposals, often mutually contradictory, none stated with anything near certainty.
1\. The simulators are much like us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hCbrPFH3PFYb93dy6/if-we-live-in-a-simulation-what-does-that-imply |
# Prediction market sequence requested
**Related to:** [Eliezer's Sequences and Mainstream Academia](/lw/eik/eliezers_sequences_and_mainstream_academia/), [Intellectual insularity and productivity](/lw/d06/intellectual_insularity_and_productivity/), [I Stand by the Sequences](/lw/cfe/i_stand_by_the_sequences/), [Why d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/km8pmcudnW5WM3aAX/prediction-market-sequence-requested |
# The Problem With Rational Wiki
**Related to:** [RationalWiki's take on LW](/lw/cb2/rationalwikis_take_on_lw/), [David Gerard's Comments](/lw/377/a_possible_example_of_failure_to_apply_lessons/31g2), [Vladimir_M's comments](/lw/cb2/rationalwikis_take_on_lw/6jrr), [Public Drafts](/lw/ecf/open_thread_september_115_2012... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GfMSiorAsYeezpn9o/the-problem-with-rational-wiki |
# Smoking lesion as a counterexample to CDT
I stumbled upon [this paper](http://fitelson.org/few/few_05/egan.pdf) by [Andy Egan](http://www.andyegan.net/Andy_Egan/Front_Page.html) and thought that its main result should be shared. We have the Newcomb problem as counterexample to CDT, but that can be dismissed as being... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eTu23XYr37prmJxa3/smoking-lesion-as-a-counterexample-to-cdt |
# How to Deal with Depression - The Meta Layers
I wrote this for the Positive Vector website awhile back and lots of people have found it valuable, so I want to share it with the Less Wrong community as well. I think this applies to most people - meta suffering thing is something I see everywhere, even though it is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/foKJNj4cphxThsukr/how-to-deal-with-depression-the-meta-layers |
# [LINK] Breaking the illusion of understanding
This [writeup at Ars Technica](http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/10/weve-located-the-reality-distortion-field-and-its-in-the-consumers-brain/ "Ars Technica writeup") about a [recently published paper](http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/667782 "DOI record for the paper") in the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2k9BpWvJEPRvN7pST/link-breaking-the-illusion-of-understanding |
# Passive income for dummies
I read one too many breathless blog posts on the virtues of passive income and decided to write a rebuttal. Much of this should be obvious to folks with a solid economics background; in fact, please correct me if I got anything wrong.
* * *
People seem to think in an odd way about passi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wvW8qdmfMTkmgnvuJ/passive-income-for-dummies |
# Economy gossip open thread
Diego Caleiro [writes](/lw/f2q/passive_income_for_dummies/7p91):
> It amazes me that there is no "Sequence on how to make money in intelligent ways" or something of the sort in LessWrong.
I don't think a sequence is the quite the right approach to this. The economy is huge, complicated,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kCmcT4NDjmcrs4QAi/economy-gossip-open-thread |
# Constructing fictional eugenics (LW edition)
Yvain [asked](http://squid314.livejournal.com/338295.html):
> So if you had to design a eugenics program, how would you do it? Be creative.
>
> I'm asking because I'm working on writing about a fictional society that practices eugenics. I want them to be interesting... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MdbJXRofWkLpX24FD/constructing-fictional-eugenics-lw-edition |
# Original Research on Less Wrong
Hundreds of Less Wrong posts [summarize or repackage](/lw/eik/eliezers_sequences_and_mainstream_academia/) work previously published in professional books and journals, but Less Wrong also hosts lots of original research in philosophy, decision theory, mathematical logic, and other fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jTkmEGWM4dJAfE62W/original-research-on-less-wrong |
# An anecdote about names
I've always been bad at names. But this semester, as part of my duties as a physics teacher, I tried to learn the names of 100 students. It went alright - two months later and there are still some I have trouble with. At the start, I was a bit worried. What if I've just read to many books and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wJY6ifuSjbYd9RK7Z/an-anecdote-about-names |
# Checking Kurzweil's track record
Predictions are cheap and easy; verification is hard, essential, and rare. For things like AI, we seem to be restricted to nothing but expert predictions - but expert predictions on AI are [not very good](http://fora.tv/2012/10/14/Stuart_Armstrong_How_Were_Predicting_AI), either in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pimArtGNE2K2A4x58/checking-kurzweil-s-track-record |
# Proofs, Implications, and Models
**Followup to**: [Causal Reference](/lw/f1u/causal_reference/)
From a [math professor's blog](http://mathbabe.org/2012/07/11/mathematicians-know-how-to-admit-theyre-wrong/):
One thing I discussed with my students here at HCSSiM yesterday is the question of what is a proof.
They’re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z2CuyKtkCmWGQtAEh/proofs-implications-and-models |
# Things philosophers have debated
[Straight from Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trivialism).
I just had to stare at this a while. We can have papers published about this, we really ought to be able to get papers published about Friendly AI subproblems.
My favorite part is at the very end.
* * *
**Trivia... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbFKPrKHjgAQSE65L/things-philosophers-have-debated |
# Beyond Bayesians and Frequentists
(Note: this is cross-posted from my [blog](http://jsteinhardt.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/beyond-bayesians-and-frequentists/) and also available in pdf [here](http://web.mit.edu/jsteinha/www/stats-essay.pdf).)
If you are a newly initiated student into the field of machine learning, it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o32tEFf5zBiByL2xv/beyond-bayesians-and-frequentists |
# [Optimal Philanthropy] Laptops without instructions
Just read this article, which describes a splashy, interesting narrative which jives nicely with my worldview. Which makes me suspicious.
http://dvice.com/archives/2012/10/ethiopian-kids.php
> The One Laptop Per Child project started as a way of delivering techno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJTWuSqBwREGi7fba/optimal-philanthropy-laptops-without-instructions |
# [POLL] AI-FOOM Debate in Sequence Reruns?
We're now at the point in the sequences when the [AI-FOOM Debate](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_Hanson-Yudkowsky_AI-Foom_Debate) took place between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Robin Hanson. Do people want me to include them in the sequence rerun posts, and if so, how? Should ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WAj4A7b3dj2ugDTfg/poll-ai-foom-debate-in-sequence-reruns |
# Desired articles on AI risk?
I've once again updated my list of [forthcoming and desired articles on AI risk](http://tinyurl.com/ai-risk-research), which currently names 17 forthcoming articles and books about AGI risk, and also names 26 _desired_ articles that I _wish_ researchers were currently writing.
But I'd l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/noYEeN2kuuTNEnvLw/desired-articles-on-ai-risk |
# Teaching English in Shanghai
If your English is good enough to follow discussions on this site you can get a job teaching English in Shanghai. If you can participate meaningfully you are frankly overqualified. I am currently saving about 2,000 dollars a month working approximately 9-5 every day.
The minimum legal r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4aaPheZh5eAowZdjW/teaching-english-in-shanghai |
# Logical Pinpointing
**Followup to**: [Causal Reference](/lw/f1u/causal_reference/), [Proofs, Implications and Models](/lw/f43/proofs_implications_and_models/)
The fact that one apple added to one apple invariably gives two apples helps in the teaching of arithmetic, but has no bearing on the truth of the propositio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3FoMuCLqZggTxoC3S/logical-pinpointing |
# Less Wrong Parents
Less Wrong Parents
[https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&fromgroups=#!forum/less-wrong-parents](https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&fromgroups=#!forum/less-wrong-parents)
Recently the NYC LW/OB community had two babies and is expecting a third.
I created a google group as a way of sharin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oRr547QkAwsKj5AmP/less-wrong-parents |
# Sign up to be notified about new LW meetups in your area
LessWrong has rolled out a new feature on the [user preference pages](/prefs/) under "Location":
This is UNCHECKED by default. Also, we don't know by default where you live.
If you think you might want to meet up wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/97WbQTb4Etch9mDuT/sign-up-to-be-notified-about-new-lw-meetups-in-your-area |
# 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey
**11/26: The survey is now closed. Please do not take the survey. Your results will not be counted.
**
It's that time of year again.
If you are reading this post, and have not been sent here by some sort of conspiracy trying to throw off the survey results, then you are the target p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bJiyYJeCyh4HcKHub/2012-less-wrong-census-survey |
# Analyzing FF.net reviews of 'Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality'
> The unprecedented gap in _Methods of Rationality_ updates prompts musing about whether readership is increasing enough & what statistics one would use; I write code to download FF.net reviews, clean it, parse it, load into R, summarize the d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X92BMJ6jLHnyJJHxF/analyzing-ff-net-reviews-of-harry-potter-and-the-methods-of |
# A place for casual, non-karmic discussion for lesswrongers?
I have never been on a Lesswrong meetup because they tend to take place too far away from my range in terms of distance and budget. Because of that, I don't know if those perform this function to everyone's satisfaction in such a way that what I'm suggestin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbjodMd5dJc7nQWET/a-place-for-casual-non-karmic-discussion-for-lesswrongers |
# Voting is like donating thousands of dollars to charity
**Summary:** People often say that _[voting](http://www.pursueaction.org/voting-is-irrational/) [is](http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/01/economics-irrationality) [irrational](http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-scientific-fundamentalist/20091... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kLjmvG4BaM6QrDnT/voting-is-like-donating-thousands-of-dollars-to-charity |
# Does My Vote Matter?
_(Cross-posted from elsewhere; I thought some readers here might like it too. Please excuse the unusually informal style.)_
**Short answer:** Actually, yes!
**Slightly longer answer:** Yes, if the election is close. You'll never get to _know_ that your vote was decisive, but one vote can subst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6H5M7nnrp7Nrnr43L/does-my-vote-matter |
# AI risk-related improvements to the LW wiki
Back in May, Luke suggested the creation of a [scholarly AI risk wiki](/lw/cnj/a_scholarly_ai_risk_wiki/), which was to include a large set of summary articles on topics related to AI risk, mapped out in terms of how they related to the central debates about AI risk. In re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uEj6m3Qv84jfQios7/ai-risk-related-improvements-to-the-lw-wiki |
# Checklist of Rationality Habits
As you may know, the [Center for Applied Rationality](http://appliedrationality.org/) has run several workshops, each teaching content similar to that in the [core sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences#Core_Sequences), but made more [practical](/lw/47j/make_your_training... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttGbpJQ8shBi8hDhh/checklist-of-rationality-habits |
# PROPOSAL: LessWrong for Teenagers
_What_ _about an online group for high schoolers devoted to refining the art of human rationality?_
Discovering LessWrong had a profound effect on me, shedding light on the way I study thought processes and helping me with a more rational approach. As a teenager in high school, I w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9AmBxFmj2f2WMxPYa/proposal-lesswrong-for-teenagers |
# FAI, FIA, and singularity politics
In discussing scenarios of the future, I speak of "slow futures" and "fast futures". A fast future is exemplified by what is now called a [hard takeoff](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AI_takeoff) singularity: something bootstraps its way to superhuman intelligence in a short time. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zWNyEM9xmK7fbbxpD/fai-fia-and-singularity-politics |
# Nov 16-18: Rationality for Entrepreneurs
[CFAR](http://appliedrationality.org/) is taking LW-style rationality into the world, this month, with a new kind of rationality camp: [Rationality for Entrepreneurs](http://appliedrationality.org/entrepreneurs/). It is aimed at ambitious, relatively successful folk (regardl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NwSsZ7WbswZYg3ax/nov-16-18-rationality-for-entrepreneurs |
# On counting and addition
When mathematical truths and their applicability to the physical world are discussed, there's a certain kind of flawed (in my opinion) thinking that is often employed, and it comes out in sentences like "rocks behave isomorphically to integers, while clouds don't", or "two apples plus two ap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5tm3eZtSWYYM4ySeT/on-counting-and-addition |
# Questions from potential donors to Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours and EAA
**UPDATE: [Will has responded here](/r/discussion/lw/fkz/responses_to_questions_on_donating_to_80k_gwwc/).**
[The Centre for Effective Altruism has recently opened up for donations](/lw/fej/giving_what_we_can_80000_hours_and_metacharity/). ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vsxREZsCi24KMJRQk/questions-from-potential-donors-to-giving-what-we-can-80-000 |
# SIA fears (expected) infinity
It's well known that the [Self-Indication Assumption](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Indication_Assumption) (SIA) has problems with infinite populations (one of the reasons I strongly recommend not using the probability as the fundamental object of interest, but instead the decision,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/99isjR8W4JGZdro7x/sia-fears-expected-infinity |
# SIA, conditional probability and Jaan Tallinn's simulation tree
If you're going to use anthropic probability, use the [self indication assumption](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Indication_Assumption) (SIA) - it's by far the most sensible way of doing things.
Now, I am of the strong belief that probabilities in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hqET2rKbLeZFPD6uM/sia-conditional-probability-and-jaan-tallinn-s-simulation |
# Simulationist sympathetic magic
While I've been wrestling with the inspiration needed to turn my fanfiction into actual fiction rather than just an author's tract... I have had an unrelated but fun thought, which I'm throwing into the breeze here for any improvements that can be suggested.
If our universe is more l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mqGsDivpMrjey5k5b/simulationist-sympathetic-magic |
# CFAR and SI MOOCs: a Great Opportunity
[Massive open online](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_open_online_course "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_open_online_course") [courses](http://www.class-central.com/ "http://www.class-central.com/") seem to be [marching towards total world domination](http://www.blog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8zMFSTW8P63vfEpGB/cfar-and-si-moocs-a-great-opportunity |
# How can I reduce existential risk from AI?
Suppose you think that [reducing the risk of human extinction](http://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf) is the highest-value thing you can do. Or maybe you want to reduce "x-risk" because you're already a [comfortable First-Worlder](http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/first-w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qARBe3jBodrdPeRE6/how-can-i-reduce-existential-risk-from-ai |
# Universal agents and utility functions
I'm Anja Heinisch, the new visiting fellow at SI. I've been researching replacing AIXI's reward system with a proper utility function. Here I will describe my AIXI+utility function model, address concerns about restricting the model to bounded or finite utility, and analyze som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3mZNmvqBtnG2nQre/universal-agents-and-utility-functions |
# [LINK] Steven Landsburg "Accounting for Numbers" - response to EY's "Logical Pinpointing"
"I started to post a comment, but it got long enough that I’ve turned my comment into a [blog post](http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/11/14/accounting-for-numbers/)."
So the study of second-order consequences is not logic at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a3bdWgBhAS92o4BRE/link-steven-landsburg-accounting-for-numbers-response-to-ey |
# Launched: Friendship is Optimal
_Friendship is Optimal_ has launched and is being published in chunks [on FIMFiction](http://www.fimfiction.net/story/62074/Friendship-is-Optimal).
_Friendship is Optimal_ is a story about an optimizer written to "satisfy human values through friendship and ponies." I would like to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hHCBGXkQCbEqBEADE/launched-friendship-is-optimal |
# A summary of the Hanson-Yudkowsky FOOM debate
In late spring this year, Luke tasked me with writing a summary and analysis of the [Hanson-Yudkowsky FOOM debate](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_Hanson-Yudkowsky_AI-Foom_Debate), with the intention of having it eventually published in somewhere. Due to other priorit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sPrifh6uLJQFjQJPW/a-summary-of-the-hanson-yudkowsky-foom-debate |
# Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours, and Meta-Charity
_Disclaimer: I’m somewhat nervous about posting this, for fear of down-voting on my first LW post, given that this post explicitly talks in a positive light about organisations that I have helped to set up. But I think that the topic is of interest to LW-ers, and I’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FCiMtrsM8mcmBtfTR/giving-what-we-can-80-000-hours-and-meta-charity |
# How well defined is ADHD?
I've long had attention and focus problems, but never explored the possibility that I have [ADHD](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_deficit_hyperactivity_disorder) till recently. I understand that it's a standard term, but I'm still a bit suspicious; Psychiatry doesn't seem like the mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPktXTuhWo5ovmAw2/how-well-defined-is-adhd |
# [draft] Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey
Here's the biggest thing that I've been working on for the last several months:
> **Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey**
> Kaj Sotala, Roman Yampolskiy, and Luke Muehlhauser
>
> _Abstract:_ Many researchers have argued that humanity will create artif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/23WXja5CtRvpssJpJ/draft-responses-to-catastrophic-agi-risk-a-survey |
# Why is Mencius Moldbug so popular on Less Wrong? [Answer: He's not.]
I've seen several people on Less Wrong recommend Mencius Moldbug's writings, and I've been curious about how he became so popular here. He's certainly an interesting thinker, but he's rather obscure and doesn't have any obvious connection to Less W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qPextf9KyWLFJ53j/why-is-mencius-moldbug-so-popular-on-less-wrong-answer-he-s |
# Room for more funding at the Future of Humanity Institute
In case you didn't already know: The [Future of Humanity Institute](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/), one of the three organizations co-sponsoring LW, is a group within the University of Oxford's philosophy department that tackles important, large-scale problems for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iKbFQLzZqhBZKdx5s/room-for-more-funding-at-the-future-of-humanity-institute |
# What does the world look like, the day before FAI efforts succeed?
_TL;DR: let's visualize what the world looks like if we successfully prepare for the Singularity._
I remember reading once, though I can't remember where, about a technique called 'contrasting'. The idea is to visualize a world where you've accompli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3uuAdZzkjv7LKQr9/what-does-the-world-look-like-the-day-before-fai-efforts |
# "How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"
The new paper by [Stuart Armstrong](/user/Stuart_Armstrong/) (FHI) and [Kaj Sotala](/user/Kaj_Sotala/) (SI) has now been published ([PDF](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Armstrong-Sotala-How-Were-Predicting-AI-or-Failing-to.pdf)) as part of the [_Bey... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/27inAjvnMSddvYdqm/how-we-re-predicting-ai-or-failing-to |
# Collating widely available time/money trades
In the xkcd comic _Working_, a man is seen filling up his gas tank. "Why are you going here", says the observer, "Gas is ten cents a gallon cheaper at the station five minutes that way". He responds "Because a penny saved is a penny earned". Randal's pragmatically spirite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuFSkLwhSkEZJYALE/collating-widely-available-time-money-trades |
# GiveWell and the Centre for Effective Altruism are recruiting
Both [GiveWell](http://givewell.org/about/jobs) and the [Centre for Effective Altruism](http://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/recruitment/cea-full.pdf) (CEA) --an Oxford-based umbrella organization consisting of [Giving What We Can](http://givingwhatw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xqeuPFJGapznK47Ch/givewell-and-the-centre-for-effective-altruism-are |
# Good Places to Live as a Less Wronger
Less Wrongers are a diverse crowd, more so now than in the early days. I wonder if we could step away from anti-generalizations, generalize and try to say good places to live, under a few assumptions (remember, the idea of an assumption is to assume it, not to claim it is less ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdQEuSNSf34H3xNZg/good-places-to-live-as-a-less-wronger |
# The Evil AI Overlord List
Top ten tips for an AI bent on destroying humanity:
1. Humanoid robots? Really?
2. Humans have proven very adept at controlling and killing other humans - surveillance drones, bio-warfare, nuclear weapons, unmanned drones, bombs, mines, chemicals. Try and be at least as competent as that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XEv2cNb5EQhmASFF7/the-evil-ai-overlord-list |
# Miracle Mineral Supplement
We can always use more case studies of insanity that aren't religion, right?
Well, Miracle Mineral Supplement is my new go-to example for Bad Things happening to people with low epistemic standards. "MMS" is a supposed cure for everything ranging from the common cold to HIV to cancer. I j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zphinjkkXk7GGo5GC/miracle-mineral-supplement |
# Responses to questions on donating to 80k, GWWC, EAA and LYCS
Giles, and some others, have asked questions about donating to one or more of CEA’s sub-organisations. In what follows, I address these questions. I felt it would be clearest for me to mainly cluster questions under general headings, rather than address t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rC2EBbhmCzJCSyysN/responses-to-questions-on-donating-to-80k-gwwc-eaa-and-lycs |
# Playing the student: attitudes to learning as social roles
This is a post about something I noticed myself doing this year, although I expect I’ve been doing it all along. It’s unlikely to be something that everyone does, so don’t be surprised if you don’t find this applies to you. It's also an exercise in introspec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xexSa6d4uasRGoMZT/playing-the-student-attitudes-to-learning-as-social-roles |
# [link] Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing
[http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full](http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full)
> _Abstract._
>
> The widespread prevalence and persistence of misinformation in contemporary societies, such as the false belief that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q99y5a8LjC7LDLK7r/link-misinformation-and-its-correction-continued-influence |
# Musk, Mars and x-risk
[Article on space.com](http://www.space.com/18596-mars-colony-spacex-elon-musk.html)
> Elon Musk, the billionaire founder and CEO of the private spaceflight company SpaceX, wants to help establish a Mars colony of up to 80,000 people by ferrying explorers to the Red Planet for perhaps $500,00... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TWeFMvHM9JFaenZPx/musk-mars-and-x-risk |
# Overconfident Pessimism
> You can build a machine to draw \[deductive\] conclusions for you, but I think you can never build a machine that will draw \[probabilistic\] inferences.
George Polya, 34 years before [Pearl (1988)](http://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Reasoning-Intelligent-Systems-Plausible/dp/1558604790/)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvdYK8sEFqHqHLRqN/overconfident-pessimism |
# Mathematical Measures of Optimization Power
In explorations of AI risk, it is helpful to formalize concepts. One particularly important concept is intelligence. How can we formalize it, or better yet, measure it? “Intelligence” is often considered mysterious or is anthropomorphized. One way to [taboo](/lw/nu/taboo_y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aD7mZMeu9waAfm3au/mathematical-measures-of-optimization-power |
# Cryonic resurrection - an ethical hypothetical
At some point in the future, we hope, brains which have been cryonically preserved may be resurrected, by some process of neural reconstruction (most likely either as nanotech, reconstituted wetware, or virtual simulation).
Imagine that the technology has just come ava... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zgij3bCJREiFEMFSv/cryonic-resurrection-an-ethical-hypothetical |
# LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance
Standard Intro
--------------
**The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.**
About two months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YdrdHErogcGSxEBrm/lw-women-minimizing-the-inferential-distance |
# How minimal is our intelligence?
Gwern suggested that, if it were possible for civilization to have developed when our species had a lower IQ, then we'd still be dealing with the same problems, but we'd have a lower IQ with which to tackle them. Or, to put it another way, it is unsurprising that living in a civili... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ManXWhNzvcsyHPyq/how-minimal-is-our-intelligence |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.