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# Credence calibration game FAQ
Hey rationality friends, I just made this [FAQ for the credence calibration game](http://www.acritch.com/credence-game/). So if you have people you'd like to introduce to it --- for example, to get them used to thinking of belief strengths as probabilities --- now is a good time :)
Al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ckg5JS8E5QXYhM89r/credence-calibration-game-faq |
# Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at Cambridge makes headlines.
As of an hour ago, I had not yet heard of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.
Luke [announced it to Less Wrong](/lw/bze/new_xrisk_organization_at_cambridge_university/ ), as The University of Cambridge announced it to the world,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3CfZCfFApvHrXMT9T/centre-for-the-study-of-existential-risk-cser-at-cambridge |
# [META] Retributive downvoting: Why?
Several people posted recently in a [thread on women](/lw/fmc/lw_women_minimizing_the_inferential_distance/), mostly espousing feminist views - only to find that someone had declined to respond to their post, but instead browsed their history and downvoted every single comment or ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCX7b44shPuKfWLjT/meta-retributive-downvoting-why |
# A definition of wireheading
[Wireheading](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Wireheading "Wireheading") has been debated on Less Wrong [over](/lw/1lb/are_wireheads_happy/ "Happy?") and [over](/lw/69r/why_no_wireheading/ "Why not?") and [over](/lw/1oc/you_cannot_be_mistaken_about_not_wanting_to/ "Wrong Question") again, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMXhaj6zZBgbTrfqA/a-definition-of-wireheading |
# Should correlation coefficients be expressed as angles?
**Edit 11/28:** Edited note at bottom to note that the random variables should have finite variance, and that this is essentially just L². Also some formatting changes.
This is something that has been bugging me for a while.
The correlation coefficient betwee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xt85tj6GQJCuuXT68/should-correlation-coefficients-be-expressed-as-angles |
# Thoughts on designing policies for oneself
Note: This was originally written in relation to [this](/lw/fkz/responses_to_questions_on_donating_to_80k_gwwc/7v7d) rather scary comment of lukeprog's on value drift. I'm now less certain that operant conditioning is a significant cause of value drift (leaning towards nea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aNRYQFnMQbA7uu99u/thoughts-on-designing-policies-for-oneself |
# [LINK] "Moral Machines" article in the New Yorker links to SI paper
[Link](http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/11/google-driverless-car-morality.html)
> Within two or three decades the difference between automated driving and human driving will be so great you may not be legally allowed to drive you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NxTLeR2XpauGGs7xY/link-moral-machines-article-in-the-new-yorker-links-to-si |
# Causal Universes
**Followup to**: [Stuff that Makes Stuff Happen](/lw/ezu/stuff_that_makes_stuff_happen/)
[Previous meditation](/lw/eva/the_fabric_of_real_things/#7lqj): Does the idea that everything is made of causes and effects meaningfully constrain experience? Can you coherently say how reality might look, if o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o5F2p3krzT4JgzqQc/causal-universes |
# Intuitions Aren't Shared That Way
[](http://www.amazon.com/Experimental-Philosophy-Introduction-Joshua-Alexander/dp/0745649181/)Part of the sequence: [Rationality and Philosophy](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality_and_Ph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jaN4EKrRnZdynTJjH/intuitions-aren-t-shared-that-way |
# Philosophy Needs to Trust Your Rationality Even Though It Shouldn't
Part of the sequence: [Rationality and Philosophy](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality_and_Philosophy)
> Philosophy is notable for the extent to which disagreements with respect to even those most basic questions persist among its most able ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2pdyL8bSGBfYsnkyS/philosophy-needs-to-trust-your-rationality-even-though-it |
# One thousand tips do not make a system
So, I've been thinking. We ought to have a _system_ for rationality. What do I mean?
Well, consider a real-time strategy game like _Starcraft II_. One of the most important things to do in SC2 is _macromanagement_: making sure that your resources are all being used sensibly. N... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rAte4CqhQdhEafG7Q/one-thousand-tips-do-not-make-a-system |
# New WBE implementation
It usually isn't profitable to pay attention to science news, since science journalists largely misintrepret new "breakthroughs". But I am somewhat interested in this story about "artificial brains" coming out of Canada.
Most large neuron simulations I've read about before [don't actually do ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/83D92q8t3zYasnCcj/new-wbe-implementation |
# Looking for a likely cause of a mental phenomenon
I'm currently testing a promising direction for a possible collection of units at [CFAR](http://appliedrationality.org/). (For those who have attended some CFAR events or test sessions, this is a collection of refinements to the fudoshin/"panic" unit.) I've hit on wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h2QdnJBbSwEE36jc9/looking-for-a-likely-cause-of-a-mental-phenomenon |
# [Link] The Worst-Run Big City in the U.S.
[**The Worst-Run Big City in the U.S.**](http://www.sfweekly.com/2009-12-16/news/the-worst-run-big-city-in-the-u-s/)
A six page article that reads as a very interesting autopsy of what institutional dysfunction in the intersection of government and non-profits looks like. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NgHbGqgaPvnCsbr6i/link-the-worst-run-big-city-in-the-u-s |
# [Link] Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection: An Experimental Study
**Related to:** [Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People](/lw/he/knowing_about_biases_can_hurt_people/)
HT: [Marginal Revolution](http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/12/ideology-motivated-reasoning-and-cognitive-ref... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/65seESKyiC44sMRsQ/link-ideology-motivated-reasoning-and-cognitive-reflection |
# What science needs
Science does not need more scientists. It doesn't even need you, brilliant as you are. We already have many times more brilliant scientists than we can fund. Science could use a better understanding of the scientific method, but improving how individuals do science would not address most of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/soCPoB6cLmgWcTmhD/what-science-needs |
# [Link] Contesting the “Nature” Of Conformity: What Milgram and Zimbardo's Studies Really Show
Here is a paper in PLOS Biology re-considering the lessons of some classic psychology experiments invoked here often ([via](http://www.metafilter.com/122403/Contesting-the-Nature-Of-Conformity-What-Milgram-and-Zimbardos-Stu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TrvjwJgYdZf72GkXG/link-contesting-the-nature-of-conformity-what-milgram-and |
# LessWrong podcasts
Today we're announcing a partnership with [Castify](http://castify.co/) to bring you Less Wrong content in audio form. Castify gets blog content read by professional readers and delivers it to their subscribers as a podcast so that you can listen to Less Wrong on the go. The founders of Castify ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BTM5wskCnzbNLDZdS/lesswrong-podcasts |
# Factions, inequality, and social justice
Robin Hanson [has](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/selective-anti-discrimination.html) [wondered](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/explaining-unequal-inequality-aversion.html) why folks seem concerned about inequality based on some stuff, like race, gender, sexuali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/po6mCyhGTSGELzo9E/factions-inequality-and-social-justice |
# Two Anki plugins to reinforce reviewing (updated)
This post is about two [Anki](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Spaced_repetition) plugins I just wrote. I've been using them for a few months as monkey patches, but I thought it might help people here (or at least the 20% that are awesome enough to use SRSs) to have th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qkb6MrWBr48PLtXJu/two-anki-plugins-to-reinforce-reviewing-updated |
# Prediction Sources
I'd like to become better calibrated via [PredictionBook](http://predictionbook.com/) and other tools, but coming up with well-specified predictions can be very time-consuming. It's handy to be provided with a stock of specific claims to make predictions (or post-dictions) about, as with CFAR's [C... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LigE97GmxQZvoEFQ8/prediction-sources |
# Mixed Reference: The Great Reductionist Project
**Followup to**: [Logical Pinpointing](/lw/f4e/logical_pinpointing/), [Causal Reference](/lw/f1u/causal_reference/)
Take the universe and grind it down to the finest powder and sieve it through the finest sieve and then _show_ me one atom of justice, one molecule of m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bTsiPnFndZeqTnWpu/mixed-reference-the-great-reductionist-project |
# Train Philosophers with Pearl and Kahneman, not Plato and Kant
Part of the sequence: [Rationality and Philosophy](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality_and_Philosophy)
> Hitherto the people attracted to philosophy have been mostly those who loved the big generalizations, which were all wrong, so that few peopl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LcEzxX2FNTKbB6KXS/train-philosophers-with-pearl-and-kahneman-not-plato-and |
# Programming Thread
This is a thread for people who want to learn programming, whether they are non-programmers, beginners, or advanced programmers who want to learn more. If you would like to discuss programming _with other people from the LW community_, this is the right place.
While programming is not a central t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M3zRMrnPv3bvyGft4/programming-thread |
# Pascal's Mugging for bounded utility functions
**Followup to:** [Pascal's Mugging: Tiny probabilities of vast utilities](/lw/kd/pascals_mugging_tiny_probabilities_of_vast/); [The Lifespan Dilemma](/lw/17h/the_lifespan_dilemma/)
This is [Pascal's Mugging](/lw/kd/pascals_mugging_tiny_probabilities_of_vast/): Someone ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/daaLFCP34Ba9pRyy2/pascal-s-mugging-for-bounded-utility-functions |
# 2012 Winter Fundraiser for the Singularity Institute
Cross-posted [here](http://intelligence.org/blog/2012/12/06/2012-winter-matching-challenge/).
(The [Singularity Institute](http://intelligence.org/) maintains Less Wrong, with generous help from Trike Apps, and much of the core content is written by salaried SI s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uFtKP9WB4pk6yiN3K/2012-winter-fundraiser-for-the-singularity-institute |
# 2012 Survey Results
Thank you to everyone who took the [2012 Less Wrong Survey](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dG1pTzlrTnJ4eks3aE13Ni1lbV8yUkE6MQ#gid=0) (the survey is now closed. Do not try to take it.) Below the cut, this post contains the basic survey results, a few more complicated analyses... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x9FNKTEt68Rz6wQ6P/2012-survey-results |
# Akrasia survey data analysis
**Followup to**: [Akrasia hack survey](/lw/fpf/please_decide_whether_youll_take_this_minutelong/)
* * *
### p(hack akrasia|heard of hack and thought it was worth trying)
What are the odds of you succumbing to "hack akrasia", never trying or not consistently applying a hack, given that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xiZ8TqhhMMHJJrerJ/akrasia-survey-data-analysis |
# Procedural Knowledge Gaps, part 2
With Alicorn's permission, I'm resurrecting [this thread](/r/lesswrong/lw/453/procedural_knowledge_gaps/).
> I am beginning to suspect that it is surprisingly common for intelligent, competent adults to somehow make it through the world for a few decades while missing some ordinar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JybPNvGTWNNJ4bhYo/procedural-knowledge-gaps-part-2 |
# Science, Engineering, and Uncoolness; Here and Now, Then and There
_\[Feel free to read this poor little unrigorous and unsourced post in [JK Simmons' voice](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9fVx9k96Ns). That is entirely optional and you are of course free to read it in any voice you like; I only thought it might be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZJGs6teDEug6fm3Z/science-engineering-and-uncoolness-here-and-now-then-and |
# Help Reform A Philosophy Curriculum
A couple of days ago, Luke posted [a recommendation for reforming how philosophy is taught](/lw/frp/train_philosophers_with_pearl_and_kahneman_not/). [My department](http://www.philosophy.illinois.edu/) at [the University of Illinois](http://illinois.edu/) is in the midst of some ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvZMevZ265JrMaLGo/help-reform-a-philosophy-curriculum |
# What information has surprised you most recently?
Information that surprises you is interesting as it exposes where you have been miscalibrated, and allows you to correct for that.
I suspect the users of LessWrong have fairly similar beliefs, so it is probable that information that has surprised you would surpris... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C9rcRfSiatbnycNXh/what-information-has-surprised-you-most-recently |
# Participation in the LW Community Associated with Less Bias
**Summary**
CFAR included 5 questions on the [2012 LW Survey](/lw/fp5/2012_survey_results/) which were adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, based on five different cognitive biases or reasoning errors. LWers, on the whole, showed less bias t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2odrQi8cxKvTu6v7s/participation-in-the-lw-community-associated-with-less-bias |
# Lifeism in the midst of death
tl;dr: My grandpa died, and I gave a eulogy with a mildly anti-deathist message, in a Catholic funeral service that was mostly pretty disagreeable.
I'm a little uncomfortable writing this post, because it's very personal, and I'm not exactly a regular with friends here. But I need to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PDWK7SAD2GYMnNsDY/lifeism-in-the-midst-of-death |
# My workflow
Over the last 6 months I've started doing a lot of things differently. Some of these changes seem to have increased my work output a good bit and made me happier. I normally hesitate to share habits, but I'm pretty happy with these in particular, and even if they will work for only a few people I think t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4gud47NNqgtsEeEr/my-workflow |
# My experience as an Australian work-holiday maker
I read [Optimal Employment](/lw/43m/optimal_employment/) and decided to try a work-holiday in Australia. Several people have asked me how it's going, so here's my first take. I haven’t finished my work-holiday yet, but I want to provide this information now so that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ysasr7kPiFuSr5MLa/my-experience-as-an-australian-work-holiday-maker |
# Claiming Connotations
I was chasing links a few days ago and ran into [Disputing Definitions](/lw/np/disputing_definitions/) from the sequences (again), and was thinking about the idea of having definition-argument participants expand their definition of a word to dissolve the dispute. And I thought, I've tried it a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7GMAKuwGbvFNThzM/claiming-connotations |
# By Which It May Be Judged
**Followup to**: [Mixed Reference: The Great Reductionist Project](/lw/frz/mixed_reference_the_great_reductionist_project/)
> Humans need fantasy to be human.
>
> "Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—"
>
> Yes. As practice. You have to start out learning to believe the _little_ lies.
>
> ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqwWicCLNBSA5Ssmn/by-which-it-may-be-judged |
# New Sequences and General Update From Castify
You may have noticed [the announcement last week](/lw/fr2/lesswrong_podcasts/) of Less Wrong's partnership with [Castify](http://castify.co/) to create Less Wrong podcasts. We're happy to announce that we now offer three new sequences. For those who want to try us out, w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qc5uvn96XkgEArvy3/new-sequences-and-general-update-from-castify |
# Taking into account another's preferences
Question regarding: [If you don't know the name of the game, just tell me what I mean to you](/lw/2xb/if_you_dont_know_the_name_of_the_game_just_tell/)
I've been thinking about what it means to prefer that someone else achieve their preferences. In particular, what happens ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uRxHtpgzmjEupXG3a/taking-into-account-another-s-preferences |
# Do I really not believe in God? Do you?
Well, I used to think that I do not believe in anything supernatural that affects what happens to me, but I'm wondering if maybe I actually do [alieve](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alief_(belief)) in it. For example, a few days ago I had a close call in traffic, and when a col... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trCeFmHqGfk6SPncG/do-i-really-not-believe-in-god-do-you |
# Rational subjects and rational practitioners
Half-closing my eyes and looking at the [recent topic of morality](/lw/fv3/by_which_it_may_be_judged/) from a distance, I am struck by the following trend.
In mathematics, there are no substantial controversies. (I am speaking of the present era in mathematics, since aro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LKZDoADoEzhSRevJT/rational-subjects-and-rational-practitioners |
# [LINK] Should we live to 1,000?
Peter Singer, makes a (refreshingly simple) ethical case for anti-aging research, and endorses increased funding.
[http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-ethics-of-anti-aging-by-peter-singer](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-ethics-of-anti-aging-by-peter-singe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nqens4mjrGb4RTDHe/link-should-we-live-to-1-000 |
# Why you must maximize expected utility
_This post explains von Neumann-Morgenstern (VNM) axioms for decision theory_, _and what follows from them: that if you have a consistent direction in which you are trying to steer the future, you must be an expected utility maximizer. I'm writing this post in preparation for a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F46jPraqp258q67nE/why-you-must-maximize-expected-utility |
# Noisy Reasoners
One of the more interesting papers at this year's [AGI-12 conference](http://agi-conference.org/2012/) was Finton Costello's [Noisy Reasoners](http://www.mindmakers.org/attachments/download/250/paper_61.pdf). I think it will be of interest to Less Wrong:
> This paper examines reasoning under uncerta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h6mNG2nC56sP88w3D/noisy-reasoners |
# Why (anthropic) probability isn't enough
[A technical report](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/anthropics-why-probability-isnt-enough.pdf) of the Future of Humanity Institute (authored by me), on why anthropic probability isn't enough to reach decisions in anthropic situations. You also have to choose your decision theory, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eso8pwW6pZRxZRwGw/why-anthropic-probability-isn-t-enough |
# Bad news for uploading
Recently, the Blue Brain Project published a paper arguing that human neurons don't form synapses at locations determined by learning, but just wherever they bump into each other. See video and article [here](http://actu.epfl.ch/news/blue-brain-project-accurately-predicts-connections/).
For ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcEdqZqF98eCaZpfQ/bad-news-for-uploading |
# A utility-maximizing varient of AIXI
_Response to: [Universal agents and utility functions](/lw/feo/universal_agents_and_utility_functions/)_
_Related approaches: [Hibbard (2012)](http://versita.metapress.com/content/q5523w34gk767041/?genre=article&id=doi%3a10.2478%2fv10229-011-0013-5), [Hay (2005)](http://www.cs.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LGSotF4bQ2pRSbB8a/a-utility-maximizing-varient-of-aixi |
# Parallelizing Rationality: How Should Rationalists Think in Groups?
Consider the following statement: **two heads are better than one**.
It seems obvious to me that several rationalists working together can, effectively, bring more precious brainpower to bear on a problem, than one rationalist working alone (otherw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4nDJM3nBvKxeoHzgo/parallelizing-rationality-how-should-rationalists-think-in |
# Statistical checks on some social science
[Simonsohn, a social scientist, investigates bad use of statistics in his field.](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/12/the-data-vigilante/309172)
A few good quotes:
> The three social psychologists set up a test experiment, then played by current academic me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RWhY5WcsJAGdx2pJb/statistical-checks-on-some-social-science |
# More Cryonics Probability Estimates
There are a lot of steps that all need to go correctly for cryonics to work. People who had gone through the potential problems, assigning probabilities, had come up with odds of success between 1:4 and 1:435. About [a year ago](http://www.jefftk.com/news/2011-09-22) I went throug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TK5McpcF584e9mFCy/more-cryonics-probability-estimates |
# That Thing That Happened
I am emotionally excited and/or deeply hurt by what **st_rev** [wrote](http://st-rev.livejournal.com/385195.html) recently. You better take me seriously because you've spent a lot of time reading my posts already and feel invested in our common tribe. Anecdote about how people are tribal thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xz7BxXs4TBjtCkqxH/that-thing-that-happened |
# Ontological Crisis in Humans
Imagine a robot that was designed to find and collect spare change around its owner's house. It had a world model where macroscopic everyday objects are ontologically primitive and ruled by high-school-like physics and (for humans and their pets) rudimentary psychology and animal behavio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLaJjNdENsHhKhG5m/ontological-crisis-in-humans |
# Bounding the impact of AGI
For those of you interested, András Kornai's paper "Bounding the impact of AGI" from this year's [AGI-Impacts conference](http://www.winterintelligence.org/oxford2012/agi-impacts/) at Oxford had a few interesting ideas (which I've excerpted below).
Summary:
1. Acceptable risk tolerances... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CeZgKf6uTaPZb4x3u/bounding-the-impact-of-agi |
# Notes on Psychopathy
> This is some old work I did for SI. See also [Notes on the Psychology of Power](/lw/dtg/notes_on_the_psychology_of_power/).
Deviant but not necessarily diseased or dysfunctional minds can demonstrate resistance to all treatment and attempts to change their mind (think [No Universally Compelli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ktr39MFWpTqmzuKxQ/notes-on-psychopathy |
# LessWrong Survey Results: Do Ethical Theories Affect Behavior?
Awhile ago, Yvain released [the results of the 2012 survey](/lw/fp5/2012_survey_results/) (that I participated in), which contained responses from over 1000 readers. So I uploaded the data into STATA and fooled around looking for cool things.
Mainly, I'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3PTNRJwaT9Nkekwui/lesswrong-survey-results-do-ethical-theories-affect-behavior |
# Narrative, self-image, and self-communication
Related to: [Cached selves](/lw/4e/cached_selves/), [Why you're stuck in a narrative](/lw/14q/why_youre_stuck_in_a_narrative/), [The curse of identity](/lw/8gv/the_curse_of_identity/)
Outline: [Some back-story](#back-story), [Pondering the mechanics of self-image](#pond... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MmSv6vnsmDHu5tvpd/narrative-self-image-and-self-communication |
# Standard and Nonstandard Numbers
**Followup to**: [Logical Pinpointing](/lw/f4e/logical_pinpointing/)
"Oh! Hello. Back again?"
Yes, I've got another question. Earlier you said that you _had _to use second-order logic to define the numbers. But I'm pretty sure I've heard about something called 'first-order Peano ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i7oNcHR3ZSnEAM29X/standard-and-nonstandard-numbers |
# Beware Selective Nihilism
In a [previous post](/lw/fyb/ontological_crisis_in_humans/), I argued that nihilism is often short changed around here. However I'm far from certain that it is correct, and in the mean time I think we should be careful not to discard our values one at a time by engaging in "selective nihili... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXxoLPKAdunq6Lm3s/beware-selective-nihilism |
# Gun Control: How would we know?
I don't know how to keep this topic away from [http://lesswrong.com/lw/gw/politics\_is\_the_mindkiller/](/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/ "Politics As Mind Killer") , so I'm just going to exhort everyone to try to keep this about **rationality** and not about **politics as usual**. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ck7Jp6xtiiq69xZGc/gun-control-how-would-we-know |
# Against NHST
> A summary of standard non-Bayesian criticisms of common frequentist statistical practices, with pointers into the academic literature.
Frequentist statistics is a wide field, but in practice by innumerable psychologists, biologists, economists etc, frequentism tends to be a particular style called “N... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttvnPRTxFyru9Hh2H/against-nhst |
# Dying in Many Worlds
I feel extremely embarrassed about asking for help with this, but I have a philosophical quandary that has been eating at me for days. I'm sure that many of you already have it figured out. I would appreciate it if you would lend your [cached thoughts](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Cached_tho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Cu2v6w4q4oyz8rX/dying-in-many-worlds |
# UFAI cannot be the Great Filter
\[Summary: The fact we do not observe (and have not been wiped out by) an UFAI suggests the main component of the 'great filter' cannot be civilizations like ours being wiped out by UFAI. Gentle introduction (assuming no knowledge) and links to much better discussion below.\]
### Int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQ4KLnmB7tcAZLNfm/ufai-cannot-be-the-great-filter |
# So you think you understand Quantum Mechanics
This post is prompted by the multitude of posts and comments here using quantum this and that in an argument (quantum dice, quantum immortality, quantum many worlds...). But how does one know if they understand the concept they use? In school a student would have to writ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9MC7ts6gbvCYtQFGm/so-you-think-you-understand-quantum-mechanics |
# Ritual Report 2012: Life, Death, Light, Darkness, and Love.
One winter ago, twenty aspiring rationalists gathered in a room, ate some food, sang some songs, and lit some candles. We told some stories about why the universe is the way it is, and what kind of people we want to be.
[I wrote some things about the exper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FLq2J9KwEuecYmaSx/ritual-report-2012-life-death-light-darkness-and-love |
# New censorship: against hypothetical violence against identifiable people
New proposed censorship policy:
Any post or comment which advocates or 'asks about' violence against sufficiently identifiable real people or groups (as opposed to aliens or hypothetical people on trolley tracks) may be deleted, along with re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8TCkDjYWphW88LJgh/new-censorship-against-hypothetical-violence-against |
# What if "status" IS a terminal value for most people?
_\[Inspired by a few of the science bits in HP:MOR, and far more so by the discussions between Draco and Harry about "social skills". Shared because I suspect it's an insight some people would benefit from.\]_
One of the more prominent theories on the evolution ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GCQvWvYvgRcaC23BP/what-if-status-is-a-terminal-value-for-most-people |
# Godel's Completeness and Incompleteness Theorems
**Followup to**: [Standard and Nonstandard Numbers](/lw/g0i/standard_and_nonstandard_numbers/)
So... last time you claimed that using first-order axioms to rule out the existence of nonstandard numbers - other chains of numbers besides the 'standard' numbers starting... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GZjGtd35vhCnzSQKy/godel-s-completeness-and-incompleteness-theorems |
# Ideal Advisor Theories and Personal CEV
**Update 5-24-2013**: A cleaned-up, citable version of this article is now available [on MIRI's website](http://intelligence.org/files/IdealAdvisorTheories.pdf).
Co-authored with [crazy88](/user/crazy88/)
_Summary_: Yudkowsky's "coherent extrapolated volition" (CEV) concept ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9ZSXiiA7wEuRgnkS/ideal-advisor-theories-and-personal-cev |
# META: Deletion policy
[http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Deletion_policy](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Deletion_policy)
This is my attempt to codify the informal rules I've been working by.
I'll leave this post up for a bit, but strongly suspect that it will have to be deleted not too long thereafter. I haven't be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3MXtScwdzkbxHTsiw/meta-deletion-policy |
# Morality Isn't Logical
What do I mean by "morality isn't logical"? I mean in the same sense that mathematics is logical but literary criticism isn't: the "reasoning" we use to think about morality doesn't resemble logical reasoning. All systems of logic, that I'm aware of, have a concept of proof and a method of ver... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvYKSFmsBX3QhgQvF/morality-isn-t-logical |
# Intelligence explosion in organizations, or why I'm not worried about the singularity
If I understand the Singularitarian argument espoused by many members of this community (eg. [Muehlhauser and Salamon](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Muehlhauser-Salamon-Intelligence-Explosion-Evidence-and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22PXLzsDaLkF7MoMc/intelligence-explosion-in-organizations-or-why-i-m-not |
# The Relation Projection Fallacy and the purpose of life
I bet most people here have realized this explicitly or implicitly, but [this comment](/lw/4h/when_truth_isnt_enough/37v) has inspired me to write a short, linkable summary of this error pattern, with a name:
**The Relation Projection Fallacy**: a denotational... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pCzoeaP7tXipPWGt/the-relation-projection-fallacy-and-the-purpose-of-life |
# Ritual 2012: A Moment of Darkness
_This is the second post of the 2012 Ritual Sequence. [The Introduction post is here](/lw/g0v/ritual_report_2012_life_death_light_darkness_and/)._
* * *
This is... the extended version, I suppose, of a speech I gave at the Solstice.
The NYC Solstice Weekprior celebration begins b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9N26ZivbMgKK8FDye/ritual-2012-a-moment-of-darkness |
# The ongoing transformation of quantum field theory
Quantum field theory (QFT) is the basic framework of particle physics. Particles arise from the quantized energy levels of field oscillations; Feynman diagrams are the simple tool for approximating their interactions. The "standard model", the success of which is ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zDFRu6iKnDnfbuCL5/the-ongoing-transformation-of-quantum-field-theory |
# Three kinds of moral uncertainty
**Related to:** [Moral uncertainty (wiki)](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Moral_uncertainty), [Moral uncertainty - towards a solution?](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html), [Ontological Crisis in Humans](/lw/fyb/ontological_crisis_in_human... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AytzBuJSD9v2cWu3m/three-kinds-of-moral-uncertainty |
# [Link] Statistically, People Are Not Very Good At Making Voting Decisions
[Link.](http://www.businessinsider.com/voting-bias-study-2012-12#ixzz2Gd4D5LWj) Nothing surprising considering previous work on the subject, but a good reminder.
> A study by three scientists in the [American Political Science Review](http://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zG3BGmFD59hAf3jr8/link-statistically-people-are-not-very-good-at-making-voting |
# You can't signal to rubes
_The word 'signalling' is often used in Less Wrong, and often used wrongly. This post is intended to call out our community on its wrongful use, as well as serve as an introduction to the correct concept of signalling as contrast._
> "We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BK3L2ySPtPrSBLEkg/you-can-t-signal-to-rubes |
# [Link] On the Height of a Field
Mark Eichenlaub posted a great little [case-study about the difficulty of updating beliefs](http://arcsecond.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/an-empirical-investigation-into-runners-high/), even over trivial matters like the slope of a baseball field. The basic story of Bayes-updating assumes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bsmifgrJ3cBFKHs8v/link-on-the-height-of-a-field |
# How to Disentangle the Past and the Future
I'm on my way to an important meeting. Am I worried? I'm not worried. The presentation is on my laptop. I distinctly remember putting it there (in the past), so I can safely predict that it's going to be there when I get to the office (in the future) - this is how well my l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rF3GBk9Sgsn75GPWk/how-to-disentangle-the-past-and-the-future |
# Applied Rationality Workshops: Jan 25-28 and March 1-4
The [Center for Applied Rationality](http://appliedrationality.org/) is running two more four-day workshops: Jan 25-28 and March 1-4 in the SF bay area. Like the [previous workshop](/lw/fc7/nov_1618_rationality_for_entrepreneurs/), these sessions are targeted a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BHrj2nDcTgaJS7JFq/applied-rationality-workshops-jan-25-28-and-march-1-4 |
# 2012: Year in Review
The beginning of a new year is a customary time to take a look back and consider what has happened during the last 12 months. And while the time for doing so is admittedly rather arbitrary - after all, "years" do not really exist in the universe, just in our heads - it is useful and fun to revie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WyN2MhXpzX8oYrCtG/2012-year-in-review |
# PSA: Please list your references, don't just link them
In what [became 5th most-read new post on LessWrong in 2012,](/lw/g6q/2012_year_in_review/) Morendil [told us](/lw/9sv/diseased_disciplines_the_strange_case_of_the/?sort=new) about a study widely cited in its field... except that source cited, which isn't online... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAhgxmCf2ebHha5BJ/psa-please-list-your-references-don-t-just-link-them |
# Interpersonal and intrapersonal utility comparisons
Utility functions are only defined up to an additive constant and a positive multiplier. For example, if we have a simple universe with only 3 possible states (X, Y, and Z), a utility function u such that u(X)=0, u(Y)=1, and u(Z)=3, and another utility function w s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8b6bmS7XGwJ3CMjpQ/interpersonal-and-intrapersonal-utility-comparisons |
# Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes
["Who wrote the _Death Note_ script?"](http://www.gwern.net/Death%20Note%20script)
> I give a history of the 2009 leaked script, discuss internal & external evidence for its authenticity including stylometrics; and then give a simple step-by-step Bayesian analysis of each... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/99DctaXedCFPfG2vb/case-study-the-death-note-script-and-bayes |
# How to Teach Students to Not Guess the Teacher’s Password?
As a teacher, I wonder if it is possible to instill this skill into students the skills of rationality and critical thinking. I teach the third grade, and it is not immediately apparent how to apply this with my own class.
The problems I foresee are as foll... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhEtnag5sWdcirxrG/how-to-teach-students-to-not-guess-the-teacher-s-password |
# Second-Order Logic: The Controversy
**Followup to**: [Godel's Completeness and Incompleteness Theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/g1y/godels_completeness_and_incompleteness_theorems/)
"So the question you asked me last time was, 'Why does anyone bother with first-order logic at all, if second-order logic is so m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SWn4rqdycu83ikfBa/second-order-logic-the-controversy |
# Just One Sentence
So apparently Richard Feynman once said:
> If, in some cataclysm, all scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence passed on to the next generation of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words? I believe it is the atomic hypothesis (or ato... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8SJEGBGsKSoFMMfr2/just-one-sentence |
# Re: Second-Order Logic: The Controversy
Response to [Second-Order Logic: The Controversy](/lw/g7n/secondorder_logic_the_controversy/). This started out as a comment, but got fun.
_Several days later, the two meet again._
"You know, I still feel uneasy about the discussion we had. I didn't walk away with the feelin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/65c2LmHS8RoLTYYXe/re-second-order-logic-the-controversy |
# A reply to Mark Linsenmayer about philosophy
[Mark Linsenmayer](http://www.partiallyexaminedlife.com/about-the-participants/), one of the hosts of a top philosophy podcast called _[The Partially Examined Life](http://www.partiallyexaminedlife.com/)_, has written a [critique](http://www.partiallyexaminedlife.com/2013... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2r28gzYtALsb7M3aR/a-reply-to-mark-linsenmayer-about-philosophy |
# [Link] The school of science fiction
I recently discovered a cool new blog called [studiolo](http://studiolo.cortediurbino.org/studiolo/) and wanted to share it here. You will probably like this post if you like science fiction since it contains long excerpts of it. **Unfortunately formatting it properly as a quote ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYjW9LCNbWkoijKwL/link-the-school-of-science-fiction |
# Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem and what it means for CEV
A Friendly AI would have to be able to aggregate each person's preferences into one utility function. The most straightforward and obvious way to do this is to agree on some way to normalize each individual's utility function, and then add them up. But ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8afQRsH9wWsB4iMD/harsanyi-s-social-aggregation-theorem-and-what-it-means-for |
# [LINK] Why taking ideas seriously is probably a bad thing to do
Yvain's blog: [Epistemic learned helplessness](http://squid314.livejournal.com/350090.html).
A friend in business recently complained about his hiring pool, saying that he couldn't find people with the basic skill of _believing arguments_. That is, if ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iS3y4xGe8Gq3hxmeM/link-why-taking-ideas-seriously-is-probably-a-bad-thing-to |
# Macro, not Micro
**Overview**
The basic observation is that, if we think of life as an optimization problem, then _redefining the search space_ is much more important than _making local optimizations_; as a fact of human psychology it's hard to consciously focus on both; but we can implicitly get away with doing bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wcs768sL7fJX7PGmP/macro-not-micro |
# Morality is Awesome
(This is a semi-serious introduction to [the metaethics sequence](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Metaethics_sequence). You may find it useful, but don't take it too seriously.)
**Meditate on this:** A wizard has turned you into a whale. Is this awesome?
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Aq8BQMXRZX3BoFd4c/morality-is-awesome |
# How to Be Oversurprised
**Followup to:** [How to Disentangle the Past and the Future](/lw/g26/how_to_disentangle_the_past_and_the_future/)
Some agents are memoryless, reacting to each new observation as it happens, without generating a persisting internal structure. When a LED observes voltage, it emits light, rega... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2AWwdNgvj6Ca3RsjZ/how-to-be-oversurprised |
# Don't Build Fallout Shelters
**Related:** [Circular Altruism](/lw/n3/circular_altruism/)
One thing that many people misunderstand is the concept of personal versus societal safety. These concepts are often conflated despite the appropriate mindsets being quite different.
Simply put, personal safety is _personal._
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hYFj8TLELv4P4RQuH/don-t-build-fallout-shelters |
# [Link] Your Elusive Future Self
A [current article in Science](http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2013/01/your-elusive-future-self.html) reports on [this study](http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~dtg/Quoidbach%20et%20al%202013.pdf) about how good people are at predicting what their future selves will be like. Not very g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gNhvixbKGchPxYq6F/link-your-elusive-future-self |
# Course recommendations for Friendliness researchers
When I first learned about Friendly AI, I assumed it was mostly a programming problem. As it turns out, it's actually mostly a _math _problem. That's because most of the theory behind self-reference, decision theory, and general AI techniques haven't been [formaliz... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/snzFQJsNYqzPZS2nK/course-recommendations-for-friendliness-researchers |
# False vacuum: the universe playing quantum suicide
Imagine that the universe is approximately as it appears to be (I know, this is a controversial proposition, but bear with me!). Further imagine that the [many worlds interpretation](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many_worlds) of Quantum mechanics is true (I'm really ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cjK6CTW9DyFAFtKHp/false-vacuum-the-universe-playing-quantum-suicide |
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