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# The January 2013 CFAR workshop: one-year retrospective
[About a year ago](/lw/gid/thoughts_on_the_january_cfar_workshop/), I attended my first CFAR workshop and wrote a post about it here. I mentioned in that post that it was too soon for me to tell if the workshop would have a large positive impact on my life. In t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TwD5xm5pErbQ9LTwn/the-january-2013-cfar-workshop-one-year-retrospective |
# A Fervent Defense of Frequentist Statistics
_\[Highlights for the busy: de-bunking standard "Bayes is optimal" arguments; frequentist Solomonoff induction; and a description of the online learning framework. Note: cross-posted from my [blog](http://jsteinhardt.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/a-fervent-defense-of-frequentis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KdwP5i6N4E4q6BGkr/a-fervent-defense-of-frequentist-statistics |
# Audio Version of "How to Actually Change Your Mind"
The audio version of the mega-sequence "How to Actually Change Your Mind" is [now available](http://castify.co/channels/46-how-to-actually-change-your-mind). It's the biggest sequence we've done yet, coming in at over 8 hours of audio. Here at Castify we think th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yibwDNWRDeNgXSE3j/audio-version-of-how-to-actually-change-your-mind |
# Bridge Collapse: Reductionism as Engineering Problem
**Followup to**: [Building Phenomenological Bridges](/lw/jd9/building_phenomenological_bridges/)
**Summary**: AI theorists often use models in which agents are crisply separated from their environments. This simplifying assumption can be useful, but it leads to t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3WuAjWMtxQwTxr2Qn/bridge-collapse-reductionism-as-engineering-problem |
# Rationality training: academic and clinical perspectives
What can existing research tell us about teaching and learning key rationalist skills? One central idea is the monitoring and adjustment of mental processes, which appears in various forms in the LW community, debiasing research, education research concerning ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vENLgXhMoecM4jmiZ/rationality-training-academic-and-clinical-perspectives |
# Managing your time spent learning
_This article is written for people who are looking for advice on prioritizing activities, in particular, what to spend time learning._
In thinking about how to budget your time, it's helpful to explicitly prioritize the activities that you engage in in terms of their relative impo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dpn7BSMzLaeiE386S/managing-your-time-spent-learning |
# A self-experiment in training "noticing confusion"
I [previously discussed](/lw/jpf/rationality_training_academic_and_clinical/) the potential relevance of therapeutic and instructional models of metacognitive training to LW-style rationality skills. As an attempted concrete realization of what this connection could... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mjiu8n9qyoqfY7LkF/a-self-experiment-in-training-noticing-confusion |
# Intelligence Metrics with Naturalized Induction using UDT
Followup to: [Intelligence Metrics and Decision Theory](/lw/h4x/intelligence_metrics_and_decision_theories/)
Related to: [Bridge Collapse: Reductionism as Engineering Problem](/lw/jlg/bridge_collapse_reductionism_as_engineering/)
A central problem in AGI i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ZGCq44Wv8p4btyL7/intelligence-metrics-with-naturalized-induction-using-udt |
# 17 Rules to Make a Definition that Avoids the 37 Ways of Words Being Wrong
Eliezer's [writing style](https://www.evernote.com/pub/adelenedawner/Eliezer#b=90390ce2-1356-4522-959e-a300957704c5&st=p&n=2c519b03-7a75-41cc-87aa-abac27d3bcef "Ch. 50 Author's Notes") of A->B, then A, then B, though generally clear, results ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ya378WMGFjz7vKCRr/17-rules-to-make-a-definition-that-avoids-the-37-ways-of |
# In Favor of Niceness, Community, and Civilization
*\[Content warning: Discussion of social justice, discussion of violence, spoilers for Jacqueline Carey books.\]*
*\[Edit 10/25: This post was inspired by a debate with a friend of a friend on Facebook who has since become somewhat famous. I’ve renamed him here to “... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rkpDX7j7va6c8Q7cZ/in-favor-of-niceness-community-and-civilization |
# SUDT: A toy decision theory for updateless anthropics
The best approach I know for thinking about anthropic problems is Wei Dai's [Updateless Decision Theory](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Updateless_decision_theory) (UDT). We aren't yet able to solve all problems that we'd like to—for example, when it comes to gam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NaZPjaLPCGZWdTyrL/sudt-a-toy-decision-theory-for-updateless-anthropics |
# LINK: In favor of niceness, community, and civilisation
Scott, known on LessWrong as Yvain, recently wrote a post complaining about [an inaccurate rape statistic](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-%E2%88%9E/).
Arthur Chu, who is notable for winning money on Jeopardy re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d83JhJYFFcidmcipN/link-in-favor-of-niceness-community-and-civilisation |
# What are some related communities online?
I think that it might be useful to create a list of related communities online that people might want to check out. Suggestions much appreciated.
**Directly Related to rationalism**
[Skeptics Stack Exchange](http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/) \- useful for confirming fact... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FNr2mNzdDwgKkFpzS/what-are-some-related-communities-online |
# How to teach to magical thinkers?
I'm afraid I haven't properly designed the Muggles Studies [course](/lw/irh/a_muggle_studies_course/) I introduced at my local Harry Potter fan club. Last Sunday we finally had our second class (after wasted months of insistence and delays), and I introduced some very basic descript... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SdnqovootBygJPk6P/how-to-teach-to-magical-thinkers |
# A medium for more rational discussion
It would be cool if online discussions allowed you to 1) declare your claims, 2) declare how your claims depend on each other (ie. make a dependency tree), 3) discuss the claims, and 4) update the status of the claim by saying whether or not you agree with it, and using somethin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptXKHqSxsgjmvAfz2/a-medium-for-more-rational-discussion |
# Single player extensive-form games as a model of UDT
This post was inspired by Benja's [SUDT](https://www.lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/jpr/sudt_a_toy_decision_theory_for_updateless/) post. I'm going to describe another simplified model of UDT which is equivalent to Benja's proposal, and is based on standard game th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W4sDWwGZ4puRBXMEZ/single-player-extensive-form-games-as-a-model-of-udt |
# The innovation tree, overshadowed in the innovation forest
_[Cross-posted](http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2014/02/the-innovation-tree-overshadowed-in-the-innovation-forest/) at Practical Ethics._
Many have pronounced that the era of innovation dead, peace be to its soul. From Tyler Cowen's [decree](http://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9FfaJLdLDbDZJZcxG/the-innovation-tree-overshadowed-in-the-innovation-forest |
# "Smarter than us" is out!
We're pleased to announce the release of "Smarter Than Us: The Rise of Machine Intelligence", commissioned by MIRI and written by Oxford University’s Stuart Armstrong, and available in [EPUB, MOBI, PDF](http://intelligence.org/smarter-than-us/), and from the [Amazon](http://www.amazon.com/g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pam5oJXECo8ka6ikA/smarter-than-us-is-out |
# The Rationality Wars
Ever since [Tversky](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Tversky) and [Kahneman](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman) started to gather evidence purporting to show that humans suffer from a large number of cognitive biases, other psychologists and philosophers have criticized these findin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pGcBPZvWbZSH5cK4j/the-rationality-wars |
# The sin of updating when you can change whether you exist
_Trigger warning: In a thought experiment in this post, I used a hypothetical torture scenario without thinking, even though it wasn't necessary to make my point. Apologies, and [thanks to an anonymous user for pointing this out](/lw/jrm/the_sin_of_updating_w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TCjiFNfJ7z8W4cEwr/the-sin-of-updating-when-you-can-change-whether-you-exist |
# Lifestyle interventions to increase longevity
There is a lot of bad science and controversy in the realm of how to have a healthy lifestyle. Every week we are bombarded with new studies conflicting older studies telling us X is good or Y is bad. Eventually we reach our psychological limit, throw up our hands, and gi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PhXENjdXiHhsWGfQo/lifestyle-interventions-to-increase-longevity |
# Self-Congratulatory Rationalism
Quite a few people complain about the atheist/skeptic/rationalist communities being self-congratulatory. I used to dismiss this as a sign of people's unwillingness to admit that rejecting religion, or astrology, or whatever, was any more rational than accepting those things. Lately, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsznamBgNuj3XX2DP/self-congratulatory-rationalism |
# Solomonoff Cartesianism
**Followup to**: [Bridge Collapse](/lw/jlg/bridge_collapse_reductionism_as_engineering/); [An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction](/lw/dhg/an_intuitive_explanation_of_solomonoff_induction/); [Reductionism](/lw/on/reductionism/)
**Summary**: If you want to predict arbitrary computab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AszKwKyhBPZAnCstA/solomonoff-cartesianism |
# Political Skills which Increase Income
Summary: This article is intended for those who are "[earning to give](/lw/hjn/earning_to_give_vs_altruistic_career_choice/)" (i.e. maximize income so that it can be donated to charity). It is basically an annotated bibliography of a few recent meta-analyses of predictors of in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4rwABGAd9kZG8nf2P/political-skills-which-increase-income |
# Proportional Giving
**Executive summary**: _The practice of giving a fixed fraction of one's income to charity is near-universal but possibly indefensible. I describe one approach that certainly doesn't defend it, speculate vaguely about a possible way of fixing it up, and invite better ideas from others._
* * *
M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YRfgmYKKuWB6TTq99/proportional-giving |
# Don't teach people how to reach the top of a hill
When is it faster to rediscover something on your own than to learn it from someone who already knows it?
Sometimes it's faster to re-derive a proof or algorithm than to look it up. Keith Lynch re-invented the fast Fourier transform because he was too lazy to walk a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbNaFMkqtso7kdL5y/don-t-teach-people-how-to-reach-the-top-of-a-hill |
# Proposal: LW courses
For a long time I have tried to study things on my own, at my own pace. But it was always an uphill struggle against strong akrasia issues, and eventually I came to the conclusion that the only thing that really seems to work is to have externally-imposed deadlines. The only way I could think of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/otk7rzf4jeeRdMJ88/proposal-lw-courses |
# How my math skills improved dramatically
When I was a freshman in high school, I was a mediocre math student: I earned a D in second semester geometry and had to repeat the course. By the time I was a senior in high school, I was one of the strongest few math students in my class of ~600 students at an academic magn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wqj7YJPFRxWbCLyt8/how-my-math-skills-improved-dramatically |
# What we learned about Less Wrong from Cognito Mentoring advising
In late December 2013, Jonah, my collaborator at [Cognito Mentoring](http://www.cognitomentoring.org), [announced the service](/r/lesswrong/lw/jee/cognito_mentoring_an_advising_service_for/) on LessWrong. Information about the service was also circulat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xqEuAD3dXHPSFeerd/what-we-learned-about-less-wrong-from-cognito-mentoring |
# Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, [a story broke](http://mag.newsweek.com/2014/03/14/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto.html) that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9FHHSXnYwk2FxSgC2/amanda-knox-redux-is-satoshi-nakamoto-the-real-satoshi |
# How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)
**TL;DR**
A serious possibility is that the first AGI(s) will be developed in a Manhattan Project style setting before any sort of friendliness/safety constraints can be integrated reliably. They will also be substantially short of the intelligence ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eJDTaBEZgCpbSdAbS/how-to-study-unsafe-agi-s-safely-and-why-we-might-have-no |
# Strategic choice of identity
Identity is mostly discussed on LW in a cautionary manner: keep your identity small, be aware of the identities you are attached to. As benlandautaylor [points out](/lw/idj/use_your_identity_carefully/), identities are very powerful, and while being rightfully cautious about them, we can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uR8c2NPp4bWHQ5u45/strategic-choice-of-identity |
# In favour of terseness
I like posts that are concise and to the point. Posts like that maximize my information/effort ratio. I would really like to see experienced rationalists simply post a list of things they believe on any given subject with a short explanation for why they believe each of those things. Then I co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgKFahh3d3m4MSnD9/in-favour-of-terseness |
# Optimal Exercise
**Followup to:** [Lifestyle interventions to increase longevity](/lw/jrt/lifestyle_interventions_to_increase_longevity/).
What does it mean for exercise to be optimal?
* Optimal for looks
* Optimal for time
* Optimal for effort
* Optimal for performance
* Optimal for longevity
There may... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bZ2w99pEAeAbKnKqo/optimal-exercise |
# A vote against spaced repetition
LessWrong seems to be a big fan of spaced-repetition flashcard programs like Anki, Supermemo, or Mnemosyne. I used to be. After using them religiously for 3 years in medical school, I now categorically advise against using them for large volumes of memorization.
\[A caveat before pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/As9E3HfgED2zkTAfB/a-vote-against-spaced-repetition |
# On not getting a job as an option
This was originally a comment to VipulNaik's recent indagations about the academic lifestyle versus the job lifestyle. Instead of calling it lifestyle he called them career options, but I'm taking a different emphasis here on purpose.
Due to [information hazards](http://www.nickbos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aKQtuNvawj3Fzmw3X/on-not-getting-a-job-as-an-option |
# Is my view contrarian?
Previously: [Contrarian Excuses](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/contrarian-excuses.html), [The Correct Contrarian Cluster](/lw/1kh/the_correct_contrarian_cluster/), [What is bunk?](/lw/28i/what_is_bunk/), [Common Sense as a Prior](/lw/iao/common_sense_as_a_prior/), [Trusting Expert Cons... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFiz7Etau5HNMdKdx/is-my-view-contrarian |
# Channel factors
_Or, “how not to make a fundamental attribution error on yourself;” or, “how to do that thing that you keep being frustrated at yourself for not doing;” or, “finding and solving trivial but leveraged inconveniences.”_
_Note: cross-posted from [my blog](http://www.benkuhn.net/channel-factors), so som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DCmk7xdxW5ivaGYGx/channel-factors |
# Irrationality Game III
The '[Irrationality](/lw/2sl/the_irrationality_game/) [Game](/r/discussion/lw/df8/irrationality_game_ii_electric_boogaloo/)' posts in discussion came before my time here, but I had a very good time reading the bits written in the comments section. I also had a number of thoughts I would've li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RjpM7Mnfq4TAojdSv/irrationality-game-iii |
# Making LessWrong notable enough for its own Wikipedia page
_LessWrong_ is a great resource. It gets a fair amount of traffic ([800,000 pageviews per month](http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s18lesswrong&r=33) back when pageview-counting was working properly), has a large number of people identifying as part of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPuN7sMchKcy2Duqu/making-lesswrong-notable-enough-for-its-own-wikipedia-page |
# How much wealth is produced by high IQ people?
[Cognito Mentoring](http://cognitomentoring.org/) aims to help high potential young people self-actualize. As a part of our investigation of where the greatest leverage points are, I've been investigating the aggregate wealth of high IQ people as a class. There's a pauc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tL6A5eNnHLQXeD8zq/how-much-wealth-is-produced-by-high-iq-people |
# On the concept of "talent-constrained" organizations
Some people have claimed that organizations are often talent-constrained. In other words, they're not short on money, but they're not able to find talented people. Specifically, some people, such as [biomedical researcher John Todd](http://80000hours.org/blog/273-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cNPZJn8W8cmhTLgtd/on-the-concept-of-talent-constrained-organizations |
# Overcoming the Loebian obstacle using evidence logic
In this post I intend to:
* Briefly explain the [Loebian obstacle](http://intelligence.org/files/TilingAgents.pdf) and it's relevance to AI (_feel free to skip it if you know what the Loebian obstacle is_).
* Suggest a solution in the form a formal system whi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEpDtEDQcuxHukWSd/overcoming-the-loebian-obstacle-using-evidence-logic |
# Why are Harvard's alumni so wealthy?
\[**Added:** [Solipsist](/lw/jwh/why_are_harvards_alumni_so_wealthy/ap6h) made good comments that partially account for the phenomenon, and [Douglas_Knight](/lw/jwh/why_are_harvards_alumni_so_wealthy/ap9a) pointed out that the figure of $200m+ below should be $30m+\]
[This artic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbaRvgBn3vHMDxjuZ/why-are-harvard-s-alumni-so-wealthy |
# Intelligence-disadvantage
While LessWrong contains a large amount of high-quality material, most of the rationality advice isn't actually targeted at our core audience. The focus seems to be more on irrational things that people do, rather than irrational things that smart people do. (Sidenote: If we wanted to creat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o4D8KsLaWKrcjuQNx/intelligence-disadvantage |
# Less Wrong Study Hall - Year 1 Retrospective
Some time back, a small group of Less Wrongers collected in a video chatroom to work on…things. We’ve been at it for exactly one year as of today, and it seems like a good time to see what’s come of it.[\[1\]](#fn:1 "see footnote") So here is what we’ve done, what we’re d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYKRYNzdrZ4LH2jma/less-wrong-study-hall-year-1-retrospective |
# The Problem with AIXI
**Followup to**: [Solomonoff Cartesianism](/lw/jg1/solomonoff_cartesianism/); [My Kind of Reflection](/lw/s2/my_kind_of_reflection/)
**Alternate versions**: [Shorter, without illustrations](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_Problem_with_AIXI)
* * *
[AIXI](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AIXI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TtYuY2QBug3dn2wuo/the-problem-with-aixi |
# Discovering Your Secretly Secret Sensory Experiences
In his recent [excellent blog post](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/17/what-universal-human-experiences-are-you-missing-without-realizing-it/), Yvain discusses a few "universal" (commonplace) human experiences that many people never notice they don't have, such ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pzbXDph4JiLnn4N4t/discovering-your-secretly-secret-sensory-experiences |
# Terrorist baby down the well: a look at institutional forces
_Two facts "everyone knows", an intriguing contrast, and a note of caution._
"Everyone knows" that people are much more willing to invest into cures than preventions. When a disaster hits, then [money is no object](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26131515); ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EArmq3Wwom3aKfG2r/terrorist-baby-down-the-well-a-look-at-institutional-forces |
# On Irrational Theory of Identity
Meet Alice. Alice alieves that losing consciousness causes discontinuity of identity.
Alice has a good job. Every payday, she takes her salary and enjoys herself in a reasonable way for her means--maybe going to a restaurant, maybe seeing a movie, normal things. And in the evening, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/efeeiduYjiwJvi5vy/on-irrational-theory-of-identity |
# To what extent does improved rationality lead to effective altruism?
It's been claimed that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. I think that this is true, but the effect size is unclear to me, so it seems worth exploring how strong the evidence for it is. I've offered some general considerations bel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9msGr7DDoPAwHF6D/to-what-extent-does-improved-rationality-lead-to-effective |
# Engineering archaeology
[Here's](http://lemming-articlestash.blogspot.com/2011/12/institutional-memory-and-reverse.html) an account by a retired engineer of what happened when his old company wanted to streamline a process in the factory where he used to work.
People only knew how to keep the factory going from on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BiaWJu6cWdB7ZFy53/engineering-archaeology |
# Procrastinating because of uncertainty
Procrastination accompanied by guilt comes from an internal conflict about whether one should do the activity. Sometimes the conflict comes from partly wanting to cater to one's present self (by engaging in more gratifying short-term activities) and partly wanting to cater to o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZSfLkbtxSsFc6esJX/procrastinating-because-of-uncertainty |
# A capabilities approach to personal development
_Warning: Rather obvious things will be said below. (EDIT: May not be so obvious after all. Sorry.)_
The [capabilities approach](http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/capability-approach/) is an important theoretical framework in political and moral philosophy, often used... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbPCpAfxkBCr4AuQP/a-capabilities-approach-to-personal-development |
# Effective Altruism Summit 2014
In 2013, the Effective Altruism movement came together for a week-long Summit in the San Francisco Bay Area. Attendees included leaders and members from all the major effective altruist organizations, as well as effective altruists not affiliated with any organization. People [shared s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q9j8RYyTyZzzhiq2L/effective-altruism-summit-2014 |
# How can Cognito Mentoring do the most good?
In late December 2013, I [announced](/lw/jee/cognito_mentoring_an_advising_service_for/) that Vipul Naik and I had launched [Cognito Mentoring](http://cognitomentoring.org/), an advising service for intellectually curious young people.
Vipul Naik and I are aspiring effect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9H4jyJbzhabMfsmM/how-can-cognito-mentoring-do-the-most-good |
# The Problem of "Win-More"
In [Magic: the Gathering](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering) and other popular card games, advanced players have developed the notion of a "win-more" card. A "win-more" card is one that works very well, but only if you're already winning. In other words, it never helps turn ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dfi7Snzs4pGSAu52b/the-problem-of-win-more |
# Outline Summary: The Procrastination Equation
Lukeprog has written an [excellent summary](/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/) of [The Procrastination Equation](http://www.amazon.com/The-Procrastination-Equation-Putting-Getting/dp/B005CDTQ1O) by Piers Steel. However, since [everybody has a different style](/lw/hzt/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2kzYgN8ZzmsSCoQyQ/outline-summary-the-procrastination-equation |
# Two arguments for not thinking about ethics (too much)
I used to spend a lot of time thinking about formal ethics, trying to figure out whether I was leaning more towards positive or negative utilitarianism, about the best courses of action in light of the ethical theories that I currently considered the most correc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R6KFnJXyk79Huvmrn/two-arguments-for-not-thinking-about-ethics-too-much |
# Gunshot victims to be suspended between life and death [link]
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129623.000-gunshot-victims-to-be-suspended-between-life-and-death.html?full=true
\- First "official" program to practice suspended animation
\- The article naturally goes on to ask whether longer SA (months, years... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FHpKEJ9FxMAKCkMsY/gunshot-victims-to-be-suspended-between-life-and-death-link |
# Logical thermodynamics: towards a theory of self-trusting uncertain reasoning
Followup to: [Overcoming the Loebian obstacle using evidence logic](/lw/jw7/overcoming_the_loebian_obstacle_using_evidence/)
In the previous post I proposed a probabilistic system of reasoning for overcoming the [Loebian obstacle](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pPM6E8RQ2EaBgsTce/logical-thermodynamics-towards-a-theory-of-self-trusting |
# Introducing Skillshare.im
_by Patrick Brinich-Langlois and Ozzie Gooen_
-
Communities once kept our ancestors from being torn apart by mountain lions and tyrannosaurus rexes. Dinosaur violence has declined greatly since the Cretaceous, but the world has become more complex and interconnected. Communities remain es... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqMWRHxAdiHNEJtYe/introducing-skillshare-im |
# Wheat: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
After hearing conflicting advice from diet books and the medical community, I decided to look into wheat.
There are two sets of arguments against including wheat in the diet. First, wheat is a carbohydrate, and some people support low carbohydrate diets. Second, something mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g4pi2jfQHFF6mPdjw/wheat-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Explanations for Less Wrong articles that you didn't understand
[ErinFlight said](/lw/i4z/welcome_to_less_wrong_6th_thread_july_2013/aqyn):
> I'm struggling to understand anything technical on this website. I've enjoyed reading the sequences, and they have given me a lot to thing about. Still, I've read the introdu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTfYBoj5Gm5w4FJKc/explanations-for-less-wrong-articles-that-you-didn-t |
# What has .impact done so far?
_Jointly written by Peter Hurford, Ozzie Gooen, Patrick Brinich-Langlois, and Ciarán Phillips_
-
Introduction
============
.impact is a group of people who want to volunteer on really useful projects. This means, however, we need some idea of whether or not our projects are actually ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mcaJWiEHR7RtLBZh/what-has-impact-done-so-far |
# Book Review: Kazdin's The Everyday Parenting Toolkit
**Follow-up to [Rational Parenting](/lw/63f/rational_parenting/), [Ignorance in Parenting](/lw/iif/ignorance_in_parenting/), [S](/r/discussion/lw/jff/soft_paternalism_in_parenting/)[oft Paternalism in Parenting](/r/discussion/lw/jff/soft_paternalism_in_parenting/)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sw22Fr6kv42kmLpHx/book-review-kazdin-s-the-everyday-parenting-toolkit |
# Business Networking through LessWrong
Is anyone interested in contacting other people in the LessWrong community to find a job, employee, business partner, co-founder, adviser, or investor?
Connections like this develop inside ethnic and religious groups, as well as among university alums or members of a frat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXsew2jCcHRFTmW55/business-networking-through-lesswrong |
# Items to Have In Case of Emergency...Maybe.
This post is inspired by a recent comment thread on my Facebook. I asked people to respond with whether or not they kept fire/lock boxes in their homes for their important documents (mainly to prove to a friend that this is a Thing People Do). It was pretty evenly divided,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ehHjcM3zSXGdSh7re/items-to-have-in-case-of-emergency-maybe |
# The Study of Anglophysics
**I.**
Dear Dr. McCord:
Seven years ago, our research staff read with interest your work on Berkeleyan idealism. We were particularly fascinated by your seemingly outrageous claim that it might be possible for individuals to imagine mental worlds so strongly that they would take on a real... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hMQPyLDbg3bA7P6aN/the-study-of-anglophysics |
# Thermodynamics of Intelligence and Cognitive Enhancement
Introduction
------------
Brain energy is often confused with motivation, but these are two distinct phenomena. Brain energy is the actual metabolic energy available to the neurons, in the form of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) molecules. ATP is the "energy cur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GSy4kofTBaXcPWXi/thermodynamics-of-intelligence-and-cognitive-enhancement |
# Career prospects for physics majors
Physics is attractive to many highly intellectually capable students, because
* Physical theories represent pinnacles of human achievement
* It's intellectually stimulating
* It has a reputation for being a subject that smart people do
See the comments on the post [What a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEiGQMTBAHRuMAy2H/career-prospects-for-physics-majors |
# Community overview and resources for modern Less Wrong meetup organisers
I've been travelling around the US for the past month since arriving from Australia, and have had the chance to see how a number of different Less Wrong communities operate. As a departing organiser for the Melbourne Less Wrong community, it ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KiMeNrvh3PNmsM2F9/community-overview-and-resources-for-modern-less-wrong |
# The Cold War divided Science
What can we learn about science from the divide during the Cold War?
I have one example in mind: America held that coal and oil were fossil fuels, the stored energy of the sun, while the Soviets held that they were the result of geologic forces applied to primordial methane.
At least o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fHqjYQSfTA95GcE4L/the-cold-war-divided-science |
# SHRDLU, understanding, anthropomorphisation and hindsight bias
**EDIT**: _Since I didn't make it sufficiently clear, the point of this post was to illustrate how the GOFAI people could have got so much wrong and yet still be confident in their beliefs, by looking at what the results of one experiment - SHRDLU - must... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ecGNCMRQNr9aD38mA/shrdlu-understanding-anthropomorphisation-and-hindsight-bias |
# AI risk, executive summary
MIRI recently published "[Smarter than Us](http://intelligence.org/smarter-than-us/)", a 50 page booklet laying out the case for considering AI as an existential risk. But many people have asked for a shorter summary, to be handed out to journalists for example. So I put together the follo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sXkg52ZwzCAGo3p5w/ai-risk-executive-summary |
# Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search
_tl;dr An unconstrained search through possible future worlds is a dangerous way of choosing positive outcomes. Constrained, imperfect or under-optimised searches work better._
Some suggested methods for designing AI goals, or controlling AIs, involve unconstrain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nFv2buafNc9jSaxAH/siren-worlds-and-the-perils-of-over-optimised-search |
# Rationality Quotes April 2014
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3JNnsXcgEKvzFfPN/rationality-quotes-april-2014 |
# A summary and broad points of agreement and disagreement with Cal Newport's book on high school extracurriculars
Cal Newport ([personal website](http://www.calnewport.com), [Wikipedia page](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cal_Newport)) is a moderately well-known author of four books as well as a computer science resear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rr3aMtvCHk26egxDi/a-summary-and-broad-points-of-agreement-and-disagreement |
# Be comfortable with hypocrisy
Neal Stephenson's _The Diamond Age_ takes place several decades in the future and this conversation is looking back on the present day:
> "You know, when I was a young man, hypocrisy was deemed the worst of vices,” Finkle-McGraw said. “It was all because of moral relativism. You see, i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MhNZaa7wWWZrGjHdn/be-comfortable-with-hypocrisy |
# The failed simulation effect and its implications for the optimization of extracurricular activities
Cal Newport's book [_How To Become a Straight-A Student The Unconventional Strategies Real College Students Use to Score High While Studying Less_](http://calnewport.com/books/straight-a-student/) (that I [blogged ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZXcwEgXWbHjLemAM/the-failed-simulation-effect-and-its-implications-for-the |
# Recommendations for donating to an anti-death cause
I've recently had the bad luck of having numerous people close to me die. Though I've wanted to contribute to anti-aging and anti-death research for a while, I'm only now in the position of being stable and materially well-off enough to throw around semi-serious ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2tnasuu4eNkq8L5qs/recommendations-for-donating-to-an-anti-death-cause |
# Schelling Day 2.0
Schelling Day is a holiday about getting to know the people in your community that we [created](/lw/h2t/schelling_day_a_rationalist_holiday/) and [celebrated](/lw/h8d/ritual_report_schelling_day/) in 2013. By popular request, I've revised the procedure to take into account what we learned last year... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JyDBfgaqcxk35uqvv/schelling-day-2-0 |
# Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth?
_Warning: This is a somewhat long-winding post with a number of loosely related thoughts and no single, cogent thesis. I have included a TL;DR after the introduction, listing the main points. All... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uDXoQYxsMgvdcFmdu/supply-demand-and-technological-progress-how-might-the |
# Botworld: a cellular automaton for studying self-modifying agents embedded in their environment
On April 1, I started working full-time for MIRI. In the weeks prior, while I was winding down my job and packing up my things, [Benja](/user/Benja) and I built _Botworld_, a cellular automaton that we've been using to he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ai4zMKQTX86fMtHN3/botworld-a-cellular-automaton-for-studying-self-modifying |
# Evaluating GiveWell as a startup idea based on Paul Graham's philosophy
[Effective altruism](http://www.effective-altruism.com) is a growing movement, and a number of organizations (mostly foundations and nonprofits) have been started in the domain. One of the very first of these organizations, and arguably the most... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KngH3kABkhZet8qML/evaluating-givewell-as-a-startup-idea-based-on-paul-graham-s |
# Beware technological wonderland, or, why text will dominate the future of communication and the Internet
_Disclaimer: The views expressed here are speculative. I don't have a claim to expertise in this area. I welcome pushback and anticipate there's a reasonable chance I'll change my mind in light of new considerati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2YYRT6coNTz7ghF7p/beware-technological-wonderland-or-why-text-will-dominate |
# My Heartbleed learning experience and alternative to poor quality Heartbleed instructions.
Due to the difficulty of finding high-quality Heartbleed instructions, I have discovered that perfectly good, intelligent rationalists either didn't do all that was needed and ended up with a false sense of security or did thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6e8BdR2Z7pv8QCip/my-heartbleed-learning-experience-and-alternative-to-poor |
# The effect of effectiveness information on charitable giving
A new working paper by economists Dean Karlan and Daniel Wood, [The Effect of Effectiveness: Donor Response to Aid Effectiveness in a Direct Mail Fundraising Experiment](http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2421943).
The Abstract:
> We test... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9TNN4JPFvcwTYsAqP/the-effect-of-effectiveness-information-on-charitable-giving |
# The Cowpox of Doubt
I remember hearing someone I know try to explain rationality to his friends.
He started with “It’s important to have correct beliefs. You might think this is obvious, but think about creationists and homeopaths and people who think the moon landing was a hoax.” And then further on in this vein.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ckuuDa8DmJ4pdFeD8/the-cowpox-of-doubt |
# Using the logarithmic timeline to understand the future
_Disclaimer: I think what I've said is sufficiently obvious and basic that I really doubt that it's original, but I can't easily find any other source that lays out the points I made here. If you are aware of such a source, please let me know in the comments he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGwYn39cq6z3tg8Zg/using-the-logarithmic-timeline-to-understand-the-future |
# How long will Alcor be around?
The Drake equation for cryonics is pretty simple: work out all the things that need to happen for cryonics to succeed one day, estimate the probability of each thing occurring independently, then multiply all those numbers together. Here’s [one example](http://www.overcomingbias.com/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around |
# Bostrom versus Transcendence
Nick Bostrom takes on the facts, the fictions and the speculations in the movie _Transcendence_:
[Could you upload Johnny Depp's brain? Oxford Professor on Transcendence](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHrT7shawRLGjKoCJ/bostrom-versus-transcendence |
# AI risk, new executive summary
AI risk
=======
Bullet points
=============
* By all indications, an Artificial Intelligence could someday exceed human intelligence.
* Such an AI would likely become extremely intelligent, and thus extremely powerful.
* Most AI motivations and goals become dangerous when the A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZfnJGe5S6KtB5pjQ/ai-risk-new-executive-summary |
# Southern California FAI Workshop
This Saturday, April 26th, we will be holding a one day FAI workshop in southern California, modeled after MIRI's FAI workshops. We are a group of individuals who, aside from attending some past MIRI workshops, are in no way affiliated with the MIRI organization. More specifically, w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nqgY7mNy8JMN99SHA/southern-california-fai-workshop |
# Human capital or signaling? No, it's about doing the Right Thing and acquiring karma
There's a huge debate among economists of education on whether the positive relationship between educational attainment and income is due to [human capital, signaling, or ability bias](http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/eco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tHQtaJLKgcD6Nwan6/human-capital-or-signaling-no-it-s-about-doing-the-right |
# Hawking/Russell/Tegmark/Wilczek on dangers of Superintelligent Machines [link]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-hawking/artificial-intelligence\_b\_5174265.html
Very surprised none has linked to this yet:
TL;DR: AI is a very underfunded existential risk.
Nothing new here, but it's the biggest endorsement the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HFmi4AbtmXEmQYaxD/hawking-russell-tegmark-wilczek-on-dangers-of |
# How do you approach the problem of social discovery?
As in, how do you find ways to meet the right people you talk to? Presumably, they would have personality fit with you, and be high on both intelligence and openness. Furthermore, they would be in the point of their life where they are willing to spend time with y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BxBJGceN8TJeg6yrT/how-do-you-approach-the-problem-of-social-discovery |
# Ergonomics Revisited
Continuation of: [Spend Money on Ergonomics](/lw/5r6/spend_money_on_ergonomics/), by Kevin
Three years have elapsed since Kevin wisely told us to spend money on treating our bodies well. It may be time to check for new gadgets, to verify what has worked and what has not etc...
If you have pur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MgmqLrXYDEiNuamJ3/ergonomics-revisited |
# Book Review: So Good They Can’t Ignore You, by Cal Newport
Very brief summary of main themes
---------------------------------
1) “Follow your passion” is terrible advice for most people. Don’t try to find your “true calling” because it’s a false concept.
------------------------------------------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WPWfNKxYnbAHxc7Sm/book-review-so-good-they-can-t-ignore-you-by-cal-newport |
# LessWrongWiki User Pages Underutilized; Tag Proposal
I think the LessWrong user pages are underutilized. There isn't even a wiki pages describing them (or at least I can't find it, otherwise I would have linked it here).
The user pages are what is shown when you click on a user like you would do to see that users o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PSiSpbcNETi66fQNt/lesswrongwiki-user-pages-underutilized-tag-proposal |
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