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# Creating a Text Shorthand for Uncertainty
Most things I find I discuss are highly uncertain, but it can be really confusing and wordy to state that uncertainty in writing. In this last sentence for example I felt the need to write “I find” to point out uncertainty, for example.
First, people are really bad at agree... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jsfSXH8mGrLy9pPqr/creating-a-text-shorthand-for-uncertainty |
# [Link] You and Your Research
I've seen [Richard Hamming's](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Hamming) classic talk You And Your Research referenced several times on LessWrong and figured I would post the full version. The introduction is reproduced below:
> The title of my talk is, ``You and Your Research.'' It ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLgzRwcShJMwxEYsJ/link-you-and-your-research |
# Existential Risk II
**Meta**
-This is not a duplicate of the [original](/lw/8f0/existential_risk/) less wrong x-risk primer. I like lukeprog's article just fine, but it works mostly as a punch in the gut for anyone who needs a wake up call. Very little of the actual research on x-risk is discussed in that article... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/52L8bioRghCChzfNy/existential-risk-ii |
# Meditation Trains Metacognition
_Summary: Some forms of meditation may train key skills of metacognition, serving as powerful tools for applied rationality. I expect aspiring rationalists to advance more quickly with a regular practice of mindfulness meditation._
The state of scientific research on meditation isn't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JMgffu9AzhYpTpHFJ/meditation-trains-metacognition |
# An Introduction To Rationality
_This article is an attempt to [summarize basic material](/lw/kh/explainers_shoot_high_aim_low/), and thus probably won't have anything new for the hard core posting crowd. It'd be interesting to know whether you think there's anything essential I missed, though._
Summary
-------
We ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fpsxNCE6Jrcoeucta/an-introduction-to-rationality |
# [Link] Trouble at the lab
**Related:** [The Real End of Science](/lw/erk/link_the_real_end_of_science/)
[From](http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble) the Economist.
> “I SEE a train wreck looming,” warned Daniel Kahneman, an eminent ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BCYwJSpQKR3dq9ENE/link-trouble-at-the-lab |
# What Can We Learn About Human Psychology from Christian Apologetics?
A couple months ago I set up a Skype meeting Robin Hanson to chat about the book he's working on. But the first thing he wanted to talk wasn't directly related to the book. He'd read some of [my work](http://www.patheos.com/blogs/hallq/) critiquing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wf8anBt9JzgrDYaqG/what-can-we-learn-about-human-psychology-from-christian |
# Is it immoral to have children?
In "The Immorality of Having Children" (2013, [pdf](http://www.jefftk.com/rachels-2013-immorality-having-children.pdf)) Rachels presents the "Famine Relief Argument against Having Children":
> Conceiving and raising a child costs hundreds of thousands of dollars; that money would be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qrP9Rawdq87RpwSBQ/is-it-immoral-to-have-children |
# Review of studies says you can decrease motivated cognition through self-affirmation
I read this article today and thought LW might find it interesting. The key finding is that in a number of different experiments, simple "self-affirmations" (such as writing about relationships with your friends or something else th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h2jeunTEz6CnMJmNB/review-of-studies-says-you-can-decrease-motivated-cognition |
# What should normal people do?
What should a not-very-smart person do? Suppose you know a not-very-smart person (around or below average intelligence). S/he read about rationality, has utilitarian inclinations, and wants to make the world better. However, s/he isn't smart enough to discover new knowledge in most f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YCjPpcy6yS3wttpoQ/what-should-normal-people-do |
# Link dump: Future of Humanity institute technical reports
For those who may be interested in these things, here are the links to all the FHI's technical reports.
[Global Catastrophic Risks Survey](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-survey.pdf): At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17‐20 July, 2008) an inf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DTZRpgf8QabJ65K8z/link-dump-future-of-humanity-institute-technical-reports |
# Intellectual energy
One of the big variations I see between people is the amount of energy they habitually put into thinking, and I haven't seen this discussed anywhere.
General advice about improving health and lowering intellectual friction would seem to help increase the ability to think, and ideas like "take fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4PipnE3nwjXbJZCKW/intellectual-energy |
# Only You Can Prevent Your Mind From Getting Killed By Politics
Follow-up to: ["Politics is the mind-killer" is the mind-killer](/lw/9l4/politics_is_the_mindkiller_is_the_mindkiller/), [Trusting Expert Consensus](/lw/iu0/trusting_expert_consensus/)
[Gratuitous political digs](/lw/gw/) are to be avoided. Indeed, I ed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6jghdNrzZD6aoNsw8/only-you-can-prevent-your-mind-from-getting-killed-by |
# Replicating Douglas Lenat's Traveller TCS win with publicly-known techniques
Douglas Lenat's program [EURISKO](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurisko) is legendary in the AI community for a distinct real-world achievement: allowing Lenat to win the the Traveller TCS roleplaying game tournament two years in a row (and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Myr7PLikhzYgPFhuy/replicating-douglas-lenat-s-traveller-tcs-win-with-publicly |
# Is it worth your time to read a lot of self help and how to books?
Some time ago, I noticed that lukeprog seems to have an exceptional knack for reading up on a subject and actually putting what he's learned to practical use. At first I thought he might be some weird genetic freak, literally - some people are good a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EDg2zgGaSPC6sThzb/is-it-worth-your-time-to-read-a-lot-of-self-help-and-how-to |
# Supplementing memory with experience sampling
If you asked me how happy I've been, I'd think back over my recent life and synthesize my memories into a judgement. Since I'm the one experiencing my life you would think this would be accurate, but our memories aren't fair. For example, people who had their hand in 57°... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d43SRwDu5wpBArdDo/supplementing-memory-with-experience-sampling |
# Why didn't people (apparently?) understand the metaethics sequence?
There seems to be a widespread impression that [the metaethics sequence](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Metaethics_sequence) was not very successful as an explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky's views. [It even says so on the wiki](http://wiki.lesswrong.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KZfoF7MdqJPcrhXaX/why-didn-t-people-apparently-understand-the-metaethics |
# Bayesianism for Humans
Recently, I completed my first systematic read-through of [the sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences). One of the biggest effects this had on me was considerably warming my attitude towards Bayesianism. Not long ago, if you'd asked me my opinion of Bayesianism, I'd probably have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCwPQzoe9hmQikMiY/bayesianism-for-humans |
# Mental Context for Model Theory
I'm reviewing the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). After my [first](/lw/ii0/book_review_heuristics_and_biases_miri_course_list/) [four](/lw/il1/book_review_cognitive_science_miri_course_list/) [book](/lw/ioo/book_review_basic_category_theory_for_compu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MG8Yhsxqu9JY4xRPr/mental-context-for-model-theory |
# Why officers vs. enlisted?
It's always puzzled me that, in armies, officers form a separate hierarchical ladder from the NCOs and enlisted soldiers.
Armies could have a single hierarchy, top to bottom, as in the simplified diagram below on the left. Instead, all armies have two _distinct_ ladders, with one strictly... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/98o4yRCT6GkogR4f2/why-officers-vs-enlisted |
# Human Memory: Problem Set
I'm working on a post about how best to use human memory—when it's good to store things in your own brain and why, when it's best to outsource your memory, what memory upgrades are worthwhile in what contexts, and how to integrate and apply memory systems in real life. I'm hoping the follow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K36Xmhu76Fhi9hNNA/human-memory-problem-set |
# Very Basic Model Theory
In this post I'll discuss some basic results of model theory. It may be helpful to read through [my previous post](/lw/ix5/mental_context_for_model_theory/) if you haven't yet. Model Theory is an implicit context for the Heavily Advanced Epistemology sequence and for a few of the recent MIRI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6BrJFkqEhh22rFsZ/very-basic-model-theory |
# Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers
One thing that most puzzles me about Eliezer's writings on AI is his apparent belief that a small organization like MIRI is likely to be able to beat larger organizations like Google or the US Department of Defense to building human-level AI. In fact, he seems t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZHn4rDBXdkPKnwNH/lone-genius-bias-and-returns-on-additional-researchers |
# [Link] Lost and Found
**Related:** [Son of Low Hanging Fruit](http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/h4u/link_son_of_lowhanging_fruit/), [Low Hanging Poop](/r/discussion/lw/iud/link_lowhanging_poop/)
A [post](http://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/10/31/lost-and-found/) by [Gregory Cochran](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zu5u5wtgjg9r2Q3HH/link-lost-and-found |
# Halloween thread - rationalist's horrors.
This is a kind of "X files" thread.
Post experiences which spooked you, which made you doubt reality, mathematical or physical laws, your sanity, memory or perception. The more improbable the better, but no second-hand legends please, share only what you personally experien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPqBcdqdh9rauZd8W/halloween-thread-rationalist-s-horrors |
# How to choose a country/city?
EDIT: I've found a very relevant indicator for my question, see "Quality of life" criteria below.
My main question is: **which _non-academic_ factors should I consider when moving to another country/city for a PhD?** Further, I would also like to evaluate each country/city^1^ accord... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uAvBv3cCcCqv52uoq/how-to-choose-a-country-city |
# Kidnapping and the game of Chicken
Observe the payoff matrix at right (the unit of reward? Cookies.). Each player wants to play 'A', but only so long as the two players play different moves.
Suppose that Red got to move first. There are some ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GQy2BSQG9Dd6vPhs8/kidnapping-and-the-game-of-chicken |
# The Witching Hour
On an ordinary evening, Tal Aivon was lively and pleasant. The collection of longhouses and yurts within its tall brick walls shone bright with kerosene – not just torches, real kerosene – and its communal meeting area was noisy with conversation and song. The children would be playing their games,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8KHR3tfa4SJjMSkXd/the-witching-hour |
# The Inefficiency of Theoretical Discovery
Previously: [Why Neglect Big Topics](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/why-neglect-big-topics.html).
Why was there no serious philosophical discussion of [normative uncertainty](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Moral_uncertainty) until [1989](http://commonsenseatheism.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jZtyt67PS2QfehkE8/the-inefficiency-of-theoretical-discovery |
# From Philosophy to Math to Engineering
Cross-posted from the [MIRI blog](http://intelligence.org/2013/11/04/from-philosophy-to-math-to-engineering/).
For centuries, philosophers wondered how we could learn what causes what. Some argued it was impossible, or possible only via experiment. Others kept [hacking away](/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TDTnut9pkT6hdKrf8/from-philosophy-to-math-to-engineering |
# 2013 Census/Survey: call for changes and additions
I have finally gotten the survey to a point where I'm pretty happy with it. I have no big changes I want to make this year. But as is the tradition, please take a week to discuss what _minor_ changes you want to the survey (within the limits of what Google Docs and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xij43oLTBRnEQv2bT/2013-census-survey-call-for-changes-and-additions |
# No Universally Compelling Arguments in Math or Science
Last week, I started a thread on [the widespread sentiment that people don't understand the metaethics sequence](/r/discussion/lw/iwy/why_didnt_people_apparently_understand_the/). One of the things that surprised me most in the thread was [this](/lw/iwy/why_didn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpupDqv4vbHSiawER/no-universally-compelling-arguments-in-math-or-science |
# Yes, Virginia, You Can Be 99.99% (Or More!) Certain That 53 Is Prime
**TLDR;** though you can't be 100% certain of anything, a lot of the people who go around talking about how you can't be 100% certain of anything would be surprised at how often you can be 99.99% certain. Indeed, we're often justified in assigning ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CFYBTbLciMmXdyE2f/yes-virginia-you-can-be-99-99-or-more-certain-that-53-is |
# Meetup: Somewhere you do not live even close to
Six out of the last 10 posts are about single meetups. And I care about none of them.
I will look into whipping together some kind of bot that periodically posts threads like the open thread or a meetup thread. Voice your opinion in the comments if you do not want me ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/27xMpjx9MzTtuQgx8/meetup-somewhere-you-do-not-live-even-close-to |
# Academic Cliques
In my article on [trusting expert consensus](/lw/iu0/trusting_expert_consensus/), I talked about the value of having hard data on the opinions of experts in a given field. The unspoken subtext was that you should be careful of claims of expert consensus that don't have hard data to back them up. I'v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9oXxwss8p6oXGg3W/academic-cliques |
# [Prize] Essay Contest: Cryonics and Effective Altruism
I'm starting a contest for the best essay describing why a rational person of a not particularly selfish nature might consider cryonics an exceptionally worthwhile place to allocate resources. There are three distinct questions relating to this, and you can pick... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bb7FiySyRgjXptAww/prize-essay-contest-cryonics-and-effective-altruism |
# Non-standard cryo ideas
What plans could a prospective cryonicist try out, beyond simply signing up, that could increase the odds of eventually having a pleasant re-animation experience?
To show what I mean, here are the main ideas I've managed to come up with so far. None of these particular ideas are a standa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGtptGyRtHTLjG3s4/non-standard-cryo-ideas |
# The Evolutionary Heuristic and Rationality Techniques
Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg ([2008](http://www.nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf)) have proposed what they call the "evolutionary heuristic" for evaluating possible ways to enhance humans. It begins with posing a challenge, the "evolutionary optimality challenge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xQQvmtPTD85Fv72ux/the-evolutionary-heuristic-and-rationality-techniques |
# A diagram for a simple two-player game
(Copied from [my blog](http://mindsarentmagic.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/diagrams-for-preferences-matrices/))
I always have a hard time making sense of preference matrices in two-player games. Here are some diagrams I drew to make it easier. This is a two-player game:
[._
This post presents a further development of the [reduced impact AI](/lw/a39/the_mathematics_of_reduced_impact_help_needed/) approach, bringing in some novel ideas and setups that allow us to acc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gzQT5AAw8oQdzuwBG/reduced-impact-ai-no-back-channels |
# On learning difficult things
I have been autodidacting quite a bit lately. You may have seen my [reviews](/lw/ixn/very_basic_model_theory/) of books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses). I've been going for about ten weeks now. This post contains my notes about the experience thus far.
Much of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w5F4w8tNZc6LcBKRP/on-learning-difficult-things |
# MIRI course list study pairs
Inspired by: [On learning difficult things](/lw/j10/on_learning_difficult_things/)
In his recent post, user So8res says his number one piece of advice for learning something difficult is to have study partner to learn with you.
Since there is a decent amount of interest here in going ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zfvng53hsYtrPjX5d/miri-course-list-study-pairs |
# How to have high-value conversations
Since I moved into the Boston rationalist house, I've found myself having an overwhelming amount of conversation compared to my previous baseline. The conversations at Citadel tend to be fairly intellectual and interesting, but there is a lot of topic drift and tendency for enter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMNa9cKYkYdoSf3D/how-to-have-high-value-conversations |
# Buying Debt as Effective Altruism?
**[http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/occupy-wall-street-activists-15m-personal-debt](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/occupy-wall-street-activists-15m-personal-debt)**
**A collection of Occupy activists recently bought over $14,000,000 in personal debt for $... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o8c9vkhpq9APphvxW/buying-debt-as-effective-altruism |
# LessWrong Study Hall will be password-protected
The community of the [LessWrong Study Hall](http://tinychat.com/lesswrong) decided to protect access to the chatroom with a password. The password is: "**lw**".
Rationale: the LessWrong Study Hall started to have a serious trolling problem recently. As it grew in popu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BCvED5FkJ9GBAwQ9M/lesswrong-study-hall-will-be-password-protected |
# Help the Brain Preservation Foundation
(First time poster, long time reader)
I'm currently volunteering for the Brain Preservation Foundation (http://www.brainpreservation.org/), and I'd like to ask for your help.
The purpose of the BPF is to incentivize and evaluate the development of technology which ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C2E8Qt68PJmFnMN28/help-the-brain-preservation-foundation |
# I notice that I am confused about Identity and Resurrection
I've spent quite a bit of time trying to work out how to explain the roots of my confusion. I think, in the great LW tradition, I'll start with a story.
\[Editor's note: The original story was in 16th century Mandarin, and used peculiar and esoteric terms ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sMNHzx7BJBvgbCaKT/i-notice-that-i-am-confused-about-identity-and-resurrection |
# The Restoration of William: the skeleton of a short story about resurrection and identity
Bill died. He never liked having dumps done. Each year he would make excuses, put it off. "Next year." he would say. Only after Bill's death do people realise just how long this has been going on for: thirty years. They will ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzNkE3kRzZbzikAKZ/the-restoration-of-william-the-skeleton-of-a-short-story |
# Research on unconscious visual processing
There is a new paper out by Sanguinetti, Allen, and Peterson, [The Ground Side of an Object: Perceived as Shapeless yet Processed for Semantics](http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/11/08/0956797613502814.abstract?rss=1). In it, the authors conduct a series of experimen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X9ZhCnvpSiLhkr2Ss/research-on-unconscious-visual-processing |
# Self-serving meta: Whoever keeps block-downvoting me, is there some way to negotiate peace?
I'm just tired of the signal pollution, and would like to be able to use karma to honestly appraise the worth of my articles and posts, without seeing 80% of my downvotes come in chunks that correspond precisely to how many p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3hpeXsCXPKJLL25df/self-serving-meta-whoever-keeps-block-downvoting-me-is-there |
# Mainstream Epistemology for LessWrong, Part 1: Feldman on Evidentialism
Richard Feldman's _[Epistemology](http://www.amazon.com/Epistemology-Richard-Feldman/dp/0133416453)_ is a widely-used philosophy textbook published in 2003. I've decided to write a series of posts summarizing its contents, because it contains so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oWaZqTHLKdB6pSmTr/mainstream-epistemology-for-lesswrong-part-1-feldman-on |
# Quantum versus logical bombs
Child, I'm sorry to tell you that the world is about to end. Most likely. You see, this [madwoman](http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0602301.txt) has designed a [doomsday machine](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmCKJi3CKGE) that will end all life as we know it - painlessly and immediately... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JGHQPybvjLAgimXae/quantum-versus-logical-bombs |
# Weak repugnant conclusion need not be so repugnant given fixed resources
_I want to thank [Irgy](/user/Irgy/overview/) for this idea._
As people generally know, total utilitarianism leads to the [repugnant conclusion](http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/repugnant-conclusion/) \- the idea that no matter how great a un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7mFKwWhfoL3BoB8cR/weak-repugnant-conclusion-need-not-be-so-repugnant-given |
# London LW CoZE exercise report
(Cross-posted to [my shiny new blog](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2013/11/18/london-lw-coze-report.html).)
Human brains are bad at evaluating consequences. Sometimes we want to do something, and logically we're pretty sure we won't die or anything, but our lizard hindbrains are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ze5Y5dfh5vmRfMknm/london-lw-coze-exercise-report |
# Happiness and Productivity. Living Alone. Living with Friends. Living with Family.
What I want to get people to discuss here is obvious given the title. What has been their experience regarding who and specially how many people they live with, and how that impacted their motivation and happiness.
I don't want to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6jLFTDPF2GEft2jJt/happiness-and-productivity-living-alone-living-with-friends |
# Effective Altruism and Cryonics, Contest Results
Thank you to each of the five contestants who entered an essay into the [contest](/r/discussion/lw/j01/prize_essay_contest_cryonics_and_effective/) that was started a little over a week ago to explore cryonics as a prospective target for effective altruism. The five e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q7PFyobNPwqBsma9g/effective-altruism-and-cryonics-contest-results |
# Be Skeptical of Correlational Studies
People kept noticing that blood donors were healthier than non-donors. Could giving blood be good for you, perhaps by removing excess iron? Perhaps medieval doctors practicing blood-letting were onto something? Running some studies ([1998](http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWSRQM4vLJRatdddW/be-skeptical-of-correlational-studies |
# The dangers of zero and one
Eliezer wrote a [post](/lw/mo/infinite_certainty/) warning against unrealistically confident estimates, in which he argued that you can't be 99.99% sure that 53 is prime. Chris Hallquist replied with a [post](/lw/izs/yes_virginia_you_can_be_9999_or_more_certain_that/) arguing that you can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9peaSLgk92RJrGfBP/the-dangers-of-zero-and-one |
# Book Review: Computability and Logic
I'm reviewing the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). After [putting down Model Theory partway through](/lw/ix5/mental_context_for_model_theory/) I picked up a book on logic. _Computability and Logic_, specifically.
Computability and Logic
========... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CvhPTwSMPqNju7hhw/book-review-computability-and-logic |
# 2013 Less Wrong Census/Survey
It's that time of year again.
If you are reading this post, and have not been sent here by some sort of conspiracy trying to throw off the survey results, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sx26Aj3xuMzmnKE4A/2013-less-wrong-census-survey |
# Probability and radical uncertainty
In the [previous article](/lw/igv/probability_knowledge_and_metaprobability/) in this sequence, I conducted a thought experiment in which simple probability was not sufficient to choose how to act. Rationality required reasoning about _meta-probabilities_, the probabilities of pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MpyDtSPyhfkNHS25u/probability-and-radical-uncertainty |
# What can we learn from freemasonry?
I recently stumbled over the relationship between freemasons and networks of social and economic influence (e.g. nobility).
I wondered what could be learned from a society which exists so long and has ideals that are not that far away from the LW goal of refining human rationalit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRgXwxdLsFAiQwma7/what-can-we-learn-from-freemasonry |
# Noticing something completely absurd about yourself
I'm not sure this is something that can be consciously done, but in this post I want to prime you to consider whether something you do is really, totally, completely wacky and absurd.
We have trained ourselves a lot to notice when we are wrong. We trained ourselv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fpu3rrFQ2mjKofAsN/noticing-something-completely-absurd-about-yourself |
# On Walmart, And Who Bears Responsibility For the Poor
**Note:** Originally posted in Discussion, edited to take comments there into account.
* * *
Yes, politics, boo hiss. In my defense, the topic of this post cuts across usual tribal affiliations (I write it as a liberal criticizing other liberals), and has a cou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6jip9pdvAHQpKRhmE/on-walmart-and-who-bears-responsibility-for-the-poor |
# Wait vs Interrupt Culture
At the recent [CFAR Workshop](http://rationality.org/workshops/) in NY, someone mentioned that they were uncomfortable with pauses in conversation, and that got me thinking about different conversational styles.
Growing up with friends who were disproportionately male and disproportionatel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LuXb6CZG4x7pDRBP8/wait-vs-interrupt-culture |
# [link] Psychologists strike a blow for reproducibility
[Link](http://www.nature.com/news/psychologists-strike-a-blow-for-reproducibility-1.14232)
> **A large international group set up to test the reliability of psychology experiments has successfully reproduced the results of 10 out of 13 past experiments. The con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DokdQdc4GF3DYWYpm/link-psychologists-strike-a-blow-for-reproducibility |
# The Ape Constraint discussion meeting.
*_The chair of the meeting approached the podium and coughed to get everyone's attention_*
Welcome colleagues, to the 19th annual meeting of the human-ape study society. Our topic this year is the Ape Constraint.
As we are all too aware, the apes are our Friends. We know ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yQ7RKfbJyEqQtkZdg/the-ape-constraint-discussion-meeting |
# A model of AI development
FHI has released a new tech report:
Armstrong, Bostrom, and Shulman. [Racing to the Precipice: a Model of Artificial Intelligence Development.](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Racing-to-the-precipice-a-model-of-artificial-intelligence-development.pdf)
Abstract:
> This paper pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5zqxzJ7cz4d9coqBZ/a-model-of-ai-development |
# According to Dale Carnegie, You Can't Win an Argument—and He Has a Point
Related to: [Two Kinds of Irrationality and How to Avoid One of Them](/r/discussion/lw/9e7/two_kinds_of_irrationality_and_how_to_avoid_one)
When I was a teenager, I picked up my mom's copy of Dale Carnegie's _How to Win Friends and Influence P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxWdXMqoQtjDhhNGA/according-to-dale-carnegie-you-can-t-win-an-argument-and-he |
# Anonymous feedback forms revisited
> In 2011, I added an anonymous feedback form to `gwern.net`. It has worked well (116 entries) and justified the time it took to set up because it encourages people to correct various problems or tip me off on things. If you have a site, maybe you should add one too.
For the full ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4yv5nMJctjLRcCRkC/anonymous-feedback-forms-revisited |
# In Praise of Tribes that Pretend to Try: Counter-"Critique of Effective Altruism"
~Disclaimer: I endorse the EA movement and direct an EA/Transhumanist organization, www.IERFH.org~
We finally have created [the first "inside view"](/r/discussion/lw/j8n/a_critique_of_effective_altruism/) [critique of EA](/r/discu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2YaMFDE89fz5xPaQ/in-praise-of-tribes-that-pretend-to-try-counter-critique-of |
# A critique of effective altruism
I recently ran across Nick Bostrom’s idea of subjecting your strongest beliefs to a [hypothetical apostasy](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/write-your-hypothetical-apostasy.html) in which you try to muster the strongest arguments you can against them. As you might have figured ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E3beR7bQ723kkNHpA/a-critique-of-effective-altruism |
# December Monthly Bragging Thread
As in Joshua Blaine's original description (below), but may be used to brag about things you've accomplished either this month (December) or the previous one (November), assuming that you haven't brought it up in any earlier Monthly Bragging Thread.
> In an attempt to encourage more... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eBMkABrytT3CzT2rf/december-monthly-bragging-thread |
# International cooperation vs. AI arms race
**Summary**
I think there's a decent chance that governments will be the first to build artificial general intelligence (AI). International hostility, especially an [AI arms race](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AI_arms_race), could exacerbate risk-taking, hostile motivatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vw9QAviBxcGodMHfN/international-cooperation-vs-ai-arms-race |
# The Logician And The God-Emperor
Once upon a time a logician accomplished a great deed, and the God-Emperor offered him a choice of rewards. “You may,” said the God-Emperor “have the hand of my eldest daughter, who is the heir to the throne, yet plain to look upon. Or you may take my youngest daughter, who is beauti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gWs8SScqeDFidqyv/the-logician-and-the-god-emperor |
# Personal examples of semantic stopsigns
I think most of us are familiar with the common [semantic stopsigns](/lw/it/semantic_stopsigns/) like "God", "just because", and "it's a tradition." However, I've recently been noticing more interesting ones that I haven't really seen discussed on LW. (Or it's also likely that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tymen39BXdebHPeJG/personal-examples-of-semantic-stopsigns |
# Kurzban et al. on opportunity cost models of mental fatigue and resource-based models of willpower
[An opportunity cost model of subjective effort and task performance](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Kurzban-et-al-An-opportunity-cost-model-of-subjective-effort-and-task-performance-plus-resp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWvqNAc7aeeeWngEh/kurzban-et-al-on-opportunity-cost-models-of-mental-fatigue |
# The Limits of Intelligence and Me: Domain Expertise
Related to: [Trusting Expert Consensus](/lw/iu0/trusting_expert_consensus/)
In [the sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences), Eliezer [tells the story](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Yudkowsky%27s_coming_of_age) of how in childhood he fell into an affe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d693kbwauFNnq96WQ/the-limits-of-intelligence-and-me-domain-expertise |
# Walkthrough of "Definability of Truth in Probabilistic Logic"
I recently went through the paper [Definability of Truth in Probabilistic Logic](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Christiano-et-al-Naturalistic-reflection-early-draft.pdf) for a second time. Explaining things to others often helps me sol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFDikC8kbukAhSnbe/walkthrough-of-definability-of-truth-in-probabilistic-logic |
# The Statistician's Fallacy
\[**Epistemic status** |Contains generalization based on like three data points.\]
In grad school, I took a philosophy of science class that was based around looking for examples of bad reasoning in the scientific literature. The kinds of objections to published scientific studies we talk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TtKBkgfxJrH9NmkXW/the-statistician-s-fallacy |
# Luck I: Finding White Swans
_Quoth the Master, great in Wisdom, to the Novice: "Ye, carry with thee all thy days a cheque folded up in your wallet. For there may be many situations in which thou shalt have need of it."_
_And the Novice, of high intelligence but lesser wisdom, replied, saying unto the Master: "Of w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iptYS9nZ8kGCmBujc/luck-i-finding-white-swans |
# Walkthrough of the Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI paper
This is my walkthrough of [Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI, and the Löbian Obstacle](http://intelligence.org/files/TilingAgents.pdf). It's meant to summarize the paper and provide a slightly-less-technical introduction to the content. I've also collect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGrX3qK3qxQYK9D4C/walkthrough-of-the-tiling-agents-for-self-modifying-ai-paper |
# an ethical puzzle about brain emulation
I've been thinking about ethics and brain emulations for a while and now have realized I am confused. Here are five scenarios. I am pretty sure the first is morally problematic, and pretty sure the last is completely innocuous. But I can't find a clean way to partition the in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Pz4Hg8qmATFkux4q/an-ethical-puzzle-about-brain-emulation |
# Examples in Mathematics
After reading [Luke's interview with Scott Aaronson](http://intelligence.org/2013/12/13/aaronson/), I've decided to come back to an issue that's been bugging me.
Specifically, in the answer to Luke's question about object-level tactics, Scott says (under 3):
> Sometimes, when you set out to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9C2LPafGPQcmSR3HK/examples-in-mathematics |
# Naturalistic trust among AIs: The parable of the thesis advisor's theorem
Eliezer and Marcello's article on [tiling agents and the Löbian obstacle](http://intelligence.org/files/TilingAgents.pdf) discusses several things that you intuitively would expect a rational agent to be able to do that, because of Löb's theor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s3PjeZuXmw5jziNDT/naturalistic-trust-among-ais-the-parable-of-the-thesis |
# MIRI's Winter 2013 Matching Challenge
**Update**: The fundraiser has been completed! Details [here](http://intelligence.org/2013/12/26/winter-2013-fundraiser-completed/). The original post follows...
(Cross-posted from [MIRI's blog](http://intelligence.org/2013/12/02/2013-winter-matching-challenge/). [MIRI](http://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arpzMZyzod3Nsqr4J/miri-s-winter-2013-matching-challenge |
# Local truth
[New Salt Compounds Challenge the Foundation of Chemistry](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131219142138.htm)
The title is overblown (it depends on what you think the foundation is), but get a load of this:
> "I think this work is the beginning of a revolution in chemistry," Oganov says. "W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3g32sLzCYGxFev4p/local-truth |
# [Meta] Post-meetup reports and discussion
Looking at the discussion section recently, it seems like over half of the posts are meetups. I think it's really great that so many LessWrongers are able to get together and do interesting stuff. Looking at a lot of the topics, I often find myself thinking "I wonder what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SNtt8MwCrpPmC4Wei/meta-post-meetup-reports-and-discussion |
# [Link] Anti-ageing compound set for human trials
This seems like an advance in understanding, even if it doesn't lead directly to a treatment.
News stories:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/20/anti-ageing-human-trials?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25445748
Abstract of the paper,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xuoq2kXzDGdgxWgs7/link-anti-ageing-compound-set-for-human-trials |
# Building Phenomenological Bridges
**[Naturalized induction](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Naturalized_induction)** is an open problem in [Friendly Artificial Intelligence](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Friendly_artificial_intelligence) (OPFAI). The problem, in brief: Our current leading models of induction do not ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ethRJh2E7mSSjzCay/building-phenomenological-bridges |
# Review of Scott Adams’ “How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big”
Dilbert creator and bestselling author Scott Adams recently wrote a LessWrong compatible advice book that even contains a long list of cognitive biases. Adams told me in a phone interview that he is a lifelong consumer of academic studies,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QTkij5fmPXPd7GD4Z/review-of-scott-adams-how-to-fail-at-almost-everything-and |
# Critiquing Gary Taubes, Part 1: Mainstream Nutrition Science on Obesity
**Related:** [Trusting Expert Consensus](/lw/iu0/trusting_expert_consensus/)
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about whether we can find any clear exceptions to the general "trust the experts (when they agree)" heuristic. One example that keeps ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JGBxoM4poNEzvmFBJ/critiquing-gary-taubes-part-1-mainstream-nutrition-science |
# How the Grinch Ought to Have Stolen Christmas
On Dec. 24, 1957, a Mr. T. Grinch attempted to disrupt Christmas by stealing associated gifts and decorations. His plan failed, the occupants of Dr. Suess' narrative remained festive, and Mr. Grinch himself succumbed to cardiac hypertrophy. To help others avoid repeating... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ighcwDMvQcRGAajtt/how-the-grinch-ought-to-have-stolen-christmas |
# Donating to MIRI vs. FHI vs. CEA vs. CFAR
In a discussion a couple months ago, Luke [said](/lw/ixt/lone_genius_bias_and_returns_on_additional/9zm1), "I think it's hard to tell whether donations do more good at MIRI, FHI, CEA, or CFAR." So I want to have a thread to discuss that.
My own very rudimentary thoughts: I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/na5sjAsgtNJzDEwSv/donating-to-miri-vs-fhi-vs-cea-vs-cfar |
# Ritual Report: Boston Solstice Celebration
A week after the large-scale Solstice celebration in NYC, we held a smaller one in Boston at Citadel house, with around 20 people attending. The content was essentially a subset (given below) of the 2012 NYC solstice [set list](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/2000477/So... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r8zyX8zfQ2i4DAy66/ritual-report-boston-solstice-celebration |
# Doubt, Science, and Magical Creatures - a Child's Perspective
**Doubt**
I grew up in a Jewish household, so I didn't have Santa Claus to doubt - but I did have the tooth fairy.
It was hard for me to believe that a magical being I had never seen somehow knew whenever any child lost their tooth, snuck into their hou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p6qkjLzkqLFS6QYfh/doubt-science-and-magical-creatures-a-child-s-perspective |
# Why CFAR?
Summary: We outline the case for CFAR, including:
* [Our long-term goal](/lw/jej/why_cfar/#ourgoal);
* [Our plan, and our progress to date](/lw/jej/why_cfar/#ourplan);
* [Our financials](/lw/jej/why_cfar/#ourfinancials); and
* [How you can help](/lw/jej/why_cfar/#help).
CFAR is in the middle of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JjGs6mDZxeCWkg3ii/why-cfar |
# Meditation: a self-experiment
**Introduction**
----------------
The LW/CFAR community has a fair amount of interest in meditation. This isn't surprising; many of the people who practiced and wrote about meditation in the past were trying to train a skill similar to rationality. Schools of meditation seem to be the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DdhnNsLosXdjxjeR4/meditation-a-self-experiment |
# Worse than Worthless
There are things that are worthless-- that provide no value. There are also things that are worse than worthless-- things that provide _negative_ value. I have found that people sometimes confuse the latter for the former, which can carry potentially dire consequences.
One simple example of thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtP2T2erPv3a6RyND/worse-than-worthless |
# What is the Main/Discussion distinction, and what should it be?
Near the beginning of this year Wei Dai [asked](/lw/gof/great_rationality_posts_by_lwers_not_posted_to_lw/8h10) why certain people don't post to LessWrong more often, and Yvain [replied](/lw/gof/great_rationality_posts_by_lwers_not_posted_to_lw/8h2b) th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5nQom4JJJSGESuSMg/what-is-the-main-discussion-distinction-and-what-should-it |
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