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# A note about calibration of confidence
**Background**
In a recent Slate Star Codex Post ([http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calibration-results/](http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calibration-results/)), Scott Alexander made a number of predictions and presented associated co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/225697eyttttp6pBj/a-note-about-calibration-of-confidence |
# [Stub] The problem with Chesterton's Fence
Chesterton's meta-fence: "in our current system (democratic market economies with large governments) the common practice of taking down Chesterton fences is a process which seems well established and has a decent track record, and should not be unduly interfered with (unles... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WxDpeBi6aQAMH4BGB/stub-the-problem-with-chesterton-s-fence |
# [Link] Huffington Post article about dual process theory
Published [a piece](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gleb-tsipursky/autopilot-vs-intentional-_b_8905696.html) in The Huffington Post popularizing dual-process theory in layman's language.
P.S. I know some don't like using terms like Autopilot and Intentional to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6D2YX4ycGdEFreJ8/link-huffington-post-article-about-dual-process-theory |
# Your transhuman copy is of questionable value to your meat self.
I feel safe saying that nearly everyone reading this will agree that, given sufficient technology, a perfect replica or simulation could be made of the structure and function of a human brain, producing an exact copy of an individual mind including a c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zKfRuA4iFsbiofg5j/your-transhuman-copy-is-of-questionable-value-to-your-meat |
# Guns And States
*\[Epistemic status: I think I probably wrung the right conclusions out of this evidence, but this isn’t the only line of evidence bearing on the broader gun control issue and all I can say is what it’s *consistent* with. Content warning for discussion of suicide, murder, and race\]*
**I.**
From a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FW3DEYbKPZJh5A8Bj/guns-and-states |
# Consciousness and Sleep
This will be a short article. I've been seeing a lot of dubious reasoning about consciousness and sleep. One famous problem is the problem of personal identity with a destructive teleporter. In this problem, we imagine that you are cloned perfectly in an alternate location and then your body ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jk2ovb7fQ3mskjdMs/consciousness-and-sleep |
# A toy model of the treacherous turn
Jaan Tallinn has suggested creating a toy model of the various common AI arguments, so that they can be analysed without loaded concepts like "autonomy", "consciousness", or "intentionality". Here a simple attempt for the "[treacherous turn](/lw/l9u/superintelligence_11_the_treach... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xt5Z2Kgp8HXTRKmQf/a-toy-model-of-the-treacherous-turn |
# Another view of quantilizers: avoiding Goodhart's Law
[Goodhart's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law) states:
> Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.
One way of framing this is that, when you are solving some optimizatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703750b1/another-view-of-quantilizers-avoiding-goodhart-s-law |
# [link] "The Happiness Code" - New York Times on CFAR
[http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/magazine/the-happiness-code.html](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/magazine/the-happiness-code.html)
Long. Mostly quite positive, though does spend a little while rolling its eyes at the Eliezer/MIRI connection and the crazines... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sqhargFcScTRxe3Dp/link-the-happiness-code-new-york-times-on-cfar |
# The correct response to uncertainty is *not* half-speed
Related to: [Half-assing it with everything you've got](http://mindingourway.com/half-assing-it-with-everything-youve-got/); [Wasted motion](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10151706498254228); [Say it Loud](/lw/u3/say_it_loud/).
Once upon a time (true... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed |
# To contribute to AI safety, consider doing AI research
Among those concerned about risks from advanced AI, I've encountered people who would be interested in a career in AI research, but are worried that doing so would speed up AI capability relative to safety. I think it is a mistake for AI safety proponents to avo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pCesigb4NjzvoNKWB/to-contribute-to-ai-safety-consider-doing-ai-research |
# Confidence all the way up
I apparently possess some sort of aura of competence. Some say I'm confident, others say I'm arrogant, others remark on how I seem very certain of myself (which I have been told both as compliment and critique).
I was surprised, at first, by these remarks from friends and family — from my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jFvPWZB5WAGkDBpqN/confidence-all-the-way-up |
# How did my baby die and what is the probability that my next one will?
**Summary**: My son was stillborn and I don't know why. My wife and I would like to have another child, but would very much not like to try if the probability of this occurring again is above a certain threshold (of which we have already settled ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/suGfBx5pcjCn6DT5A/how-did-my-baby-die-and-what-is-the-probability-that-my-next |
# Anxiety and Rationality
Recently, someone on the Facebook page asked if anyone had used rationality to target anxieties. I have, so I thought I’d share my LessWrong-inspired strategies. This is my first post, so feedback and formatting help are welcome.
First things first: the techniques developed by this commu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5w56vwiAcJt77h4Re/anxiety-and-rationality |
# Spreading rationality through engagement with secular groups
The Less Wrong meetup in Columbus, OH is very oriented toward popularizing rationality for a broad audience (in fact, [Intentional Insights](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Intentional_Insights) sprang from this LW meetup). We've found that doing in-person... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/96WiHvZhBaZ9MztyF/spreading-rationality-through-engagement-with-secular-groups |
# Celebrating All Who Are in Effective Altruism
Elitism and Effective Altruism
Many criticize Effective Altruists as [elitist](http://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_elitist_philanthropy_of_so_called_effective_altruism). While this criticism is vastly overblown, unfortunately, it does have some basis, not only from the o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/568PkvNQHM9KfnH2p/celebrating-all-who-are-in-effective-altruism |
# Desperation
The next three posts will discuss what I dub the three dubious virtues: desperation, recklessness, and defiance. I call them dubious, because each can easily turn into a vice if used incorrectly or excessively. As you read these posts, keep in mind the law of [equal and opposite advice](http://slatestarc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2gkf98FZNh8EvHW9/desperation |
# Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
\[[Cross](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/st/beware_surprising_and_suspicious_convergence/)\]
Imagine this:
> **Oliver: …** Thus we see that donating to the opera is the best way of promoting the arts.
>
> **Eleanor:** Okay, but I’m principally interested in improving... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JvRb34CFF74hKa9jJ/beware-surprising-and-suspicious-convergence |
# [Link] AlphaGo: Mastering the ancient game of Go with Machine Learning
DeepMind's go AI, called AlphaGo, has beaten the European champion with a score of 5-0. A match against top ranked human, Lee Se-dol, is scheduled for March.
> Games are a great testing ground for developing smarter, more flexible algorithms tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fiAmoEBDapMTPGZ8J/link-alphago-mastering-the-ancient-game-of-go-with-machine |
# Perhaps a better form factor for Meetups vs Main board posts?
I like to read posts on "Main" from time to time, including ones that haven't been promoted. However, lately, these posts get drowned out by all the meetup announcements.
It seems like this could lead to a cycle where people comment less on recent non-pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3yrH6d8TCTZnPw7Xx/perhaps-a-better-form-factor-for-meetups-vs-main-board-posts |
# What's wrong with this picture?
Alice: "I just flipped a coin \[large number\] times. Here's the sequence I got:
(Alice presents her sequence.)
Bob: No, you didn't. The probability of having gotten that particular sequence is 1/2^\[large number\]. Which is basically impossible. I don't believe you.
Alice: But I h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8AAh8ayaTNKLtf8Zh/what-s-wrong-with-this-picture |
# Clearing An Overgrown Garden
(tl;dr: In this post, I make some concrete suggestions for LessWrong 2.0.)
**Less Wrong 2.0**
A few months ago, Vaniver posted some ideas about how to reinvigorate Less Wrong. Based on comments in that thread and based on personal discussions I have had with other members of the commun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gCjiASWJ94JRyznx/clearing-an-overgrown-garden |
# Yoshua Bengio on AI progress, hype and risks
[LINK](http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/546301/will-machines-eliminate-us/)
Yoshua Bengio, one the world's leading expert on machine learning, and neural networks in particular, explains his view on these issues in an interview. Relevant quotes:
> There are people who... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4qPy8jwRxLg9qWLiG/yoshua-bengio-on-ai-progress-hype-and-risks |
# [moderator action] The_Lion and The_Lion2 are banned
Accounts "The\_Lion" and "The\_Lion2" are banned now. Here is some background, mostly for the users who weren't here two years ago:
User "Eugine_Nier" [was banned](/lw/kfq/moderator_action_eugine_nier_is_now_banned_for/) for retributive downvoting in July 2014. H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xCrhCkPaexhE2FZKP/moderator-action-the_lion-and-the_lion2-are-banned |
# [LINK] How A Lamp Took Away My Reading And A Box Brought It Back
[By Ferrett Steinmetz](https://www.theferrett.com/2016/01/29/how-a-lamp-took-away-my-reading-and-a-box-brought-it-back/)
Ferrett isn't officially a Rationality Blogger, but he posts things that seem relevant fairly often. This one is in the spirit of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bLMmKZDTqmdyinTsc/link-how-a-lamp-took-away-my-reading-and-a-box-brought-it |
# Recklessness
The second dubious virtue is recklessness. As with [desperation](http://mindingourway.com/desperation), there are many bad ways to be reckless. There is a nihilistic recklessness, in those with a muted ability to feel and care, that is self-destructive. There is a social recklessness, when peers push ea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F73oLhauzi6fJaYHo/recklessness |
# Upcoming LW Changes
Thanks to the reaction to [this article](/lw/n0l/lesswrong_20/) and some conversations, I'm convinced that it's worth trying to renovate and restore LW. [Eliezer](/user/Eliezer_Yudkowsky/), [Nate](/user/So8res/), and [Matt Fallshaw](/user/matt/) are all on board and have empowered me as an editor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FYav4vYLyyPCZbzeT/upcoming-lw-changes |
# A Rationalist Guide to OkCupid
There's a lot of [data](http://blog.okcupid.com) and research on what makes people successful at online dating, but I don't know anyone who actually tried to wholeheartedly apply this to themselves. I decided to be that person: I implemented lessons from data, economics, game theory an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jdLPq8JZXNzCCuJq9/a-rationalist-guide-to-okcupid |
# Gamify your goals: How turning your life into a game can help help you make better decisions and be more productive
Self-motivated hard work is the primary source of the intense, optimistic engagement known as flow—one of the greatest forms of happiness that makes us come alive with purpose and potential (Csikszentm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g2355pBbaYSfPMk2m/gamify-your-goals-how-turning-your-life-into-a-game-can-help |
# Conveying rational thinking about long-term goals to youth and young adults
More than a year ago, I [discussed here](/lw/l9b/optimizing_ways_to_convey_rational_thinking/bm0m) how we at Intentional Insights intended to convey rationality to young adults through our collaboration with the Secular Student Alliance. Thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o3cCbYP6ejG9554ck/conveying-rational-thinking-about-long-term-goals-to-youth |
# Lesswrong Survey - invitation for suggestions
Given that it's been a while since the last survey ([http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014\_survey\_results/](/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/))
It's now time to open the floor to suggestions of improvements to the last survey. If you have a question you think should be on the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/naQktZ5JScHTHChm2/lesswrong-survey-invitation-for-suggestions |
# Require contributions in advance
If you are a person who finds it difficult to tell "no" to their friends, this one weird trick may save you a lot of time!
**Scenario 1**
Alice: "Hi Bob! You are a programmer, right?"
Bob: "Hi Alice! Yes, I am."
Alice: "I have this cool idea, but I need someone to help me. I am n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHnGE63TQMwBNKrc2/require-contributions-in-advance |
# The Brain Preservation Foundation's Small Mammalian Brain Prize won
The Brain Preservation Foundation’s Small Mammalian Brain Prize has been won with fantastic preservation of a whole rabbit brain using a new fixative+slow-vitrification process.
* [BPF announcement](http://www.brainpreservation.org/small-mammal-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4FNndynQhfKCWEyZe/the-brain-preservation-foundation-s-small-mammalian-brain |
# Where does our community disagree about meaningful issues?
Yesterday at our LW Berlin Dojo we talked about areas where we disagree. We got 4 issues:
1) AI risk is important
2) Everybody should be vegan.
3) It's good to make being an aspiring rationalist part of your identity.
4) Being conscious of privacy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5qxghDmf4DopLFGa8/where-does-our-community-disagree-about-meaningful-issues |
# Defiance
The third dubious virtue is defiance. As with the other [dubious](http://mindingourway.com/desperation/) [virtues](http://mindingourway.com/recklessness/), it can get you into trouble. [Remember the law of equal and opposite advice](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/24/should-you-reverse-any-advice-you-hear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/po2xSrF25uvKBkDay/defiance |
# A Medical Mystery: Thyroid Hormones, Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia
**Summary:**
* Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia look very like Hypothyroidism.
* Thyroid Patients aren't happy with either the diagnosis or treatment of Hypothyroidism.
* It is possible that lots of FMS/CFS cases are 'something wrong with t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pos3qvzBXGRxznDDB/a-medical-mystery-thyroid-hormones-chronic-fatigue-and |
# Less Wrong Karma Chart Website
As a [learning exercise](/lw/n93/open_thread_feb_01_feb_07_2016/d2ug), I wrote a [web app](http://srlee309.github.io/LessWrongKarma/ ) which shows some charts on your karma score.
I recommend just going to the [website](http://srlee309.github.io/LessWrongKarma/) and trying it out, but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BmTGDqCbzYDzR8p6D/less-wrong-karma-chart-website |
# Unofficial Canon on Applied Rationality
I have been thinking for a while that it would be useful if there was something similar to the [Less Wrong Canon on Rationality](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong_Canon_on_Rationality) for the CFAR material. Maybe, it could be called the 'CFAR Canon on Applied Rationa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pjGGqmtqf8vChJ9BR/unofficial-canon-on-applied-rationality |
# The Value of Those in Effective Altruism
Summary/TL;DR: this piece offers [Fermi Estimates](/lw/h5e/fermi_estimates/) of the value of those in EA, focusing on the distinctions between typical EA members and dedicated members (defined below). These estimates suggest that, compared to the current movement baseline, we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/unCLAbgYFo59GTitG/the-value-of-those-in-effective-altruism |
# The ethics of eating meat
I have grown up in a family of meat-eaters and therefore have been eating meat all my life. I until recently I have never spent much time thinking about it. I justified my behaviour by saying that animal lives do not matter, because they are not self-conscious and animal pain does not matte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3LjZtytvLkTjJw85/the-ethics-of-eating-meat |
# Posting to Main currently disabled
The Main / Discussion division has served us well in the past, but traffic to Main has dropped to the point that it's no longer useful. In particular, the low visibility meant that authors would often have to choose between more karma and being seen by more readers. So posting to M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRRsfJRcNX8evgPjR/posting-to-main-currently-disabled |
# Thyroid Hormones, Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia: A Hypothesis and a Proposed Experiment
\[For background see: http://lesswrong.com/lw/n8u/a\_medical\_mystery\_thyroid\_hormones_chronic/
I thought of a class of solutions, I went looking for possible evidence, someone's already proposed what looks like a perfect a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S62QaEjmsSQvJ2sdS/thyroid-hormones-chronic-fatigue-and-fibromyalgia-a |
# The Pink Sparkly Ball Thing (Use unique, non-obvious terms for nuanced concepts)
Naming things! Naming things is _hard_. It's been claimed that it's one of the hardest parts of computer science. Now, this might sound surprising, but one of my favoritely named concepts is **Kahneman's System 1 and System 2**.
I want... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6KsMnZnkkqKBCaSQg/the-pink-sparkly-ball-thing-use-unique-non-obvious-terms-for |
# How we will be measured
After nearly a year of writing, my "replacing guilt" sequence is coming to a close. I have just one more thing to say on the subject, by pointing out a running theme throughout the series.
When all is said and done, and Nature passes her final judgement, [you will not be measured by the numb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GumD8cbnXdLsxFMM/how-we-will-be-measured |
# The map of global catastrophic risks connected with biological weapons and genetic engineering
_TL;DR: Biorisks could result in extinction because of multipandemic in near future and their risks is the same order magnitude as risks of UFAI. A lot of biorisks exist, they are cheap and could happen soon._
It may be s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Ep7bNRQZhh5QNKft/the-map-of-global-catastrophic-risks-connected-with |
# Toy model: convergent instrumental goals
tl;dr: Toy model to illustrate convergent instrumental goals.
Steve Omohundro identified '[AI drives](https://selfawaresystems.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/ai_drives_final.pdf)' (also called '[Convergent Instrumental goals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/htCBHjWNvzScEhFoA/toy-model-convergent-instrumental-goals |
# Conclusion of the Replacing Guilt series
Today marks the end of my series on replacing guilt ([table of contents](http://mindingourway.com/guilt)).
I [began the series](http://mindingourway.com/replacing-guilt/) by discussing the "restless guilt," that people feel when some part of them thinks they aren't doing wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kidpjsxCwfsgH4hQK/conclusion-of-the-replacing-guilt-series |
# AIFoom Debate - conclusion?
I've been going through the AIFoom debate, and both sides makes sense to me. I intend to continue, but I'm wondering if there're already insights in LW culture I can get if I just ask for them.
My understanding is as follows:
The difference between a chimp and a human is only 5 million ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FzGeKSHbyamuNqNNg/aifoom-debate-conclusion |
# On Making Things
_(Content note: This is basically just a story about how I accidentally briefly made something that I find very unfun into something very fun, for the sake of illustrating how surprising it was and how cool it would be if everyone could do things like this more often and deliberately. You also might... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W9j6LuN4LNZagvQzz/on-making-things |
# Updating towards the simulation hypothesis because you think about AI
(This post is both written up in a rush and very speculative so not as rigorous and full of links as a good post on this site should be but I'd rather get the idea out there than not get around to it.)
Here’s a simple argument that could make us ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLbbhbqFArutZDxhw/updating-towards-the-simulation-hypothesis-because-you-think |
# What is the future of nootropic drugs? Why can't there be ones more effective than ones that have existed for 15+ years?
So Scott Alexander's post at http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/03/01/2016-nootropics-survey-results/ shows that the most "effective" "nootropics" have still been the ones that have existed for a long... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K28wAnx52hBNw2vX4/what-is-the-future-of-nootropic-drugs-why-can-t-there-be |
# Cross-Cultural maps and Asch's Conformity Experiment
So I'm going through the sequences (in AI to Zombies) and I get to the bit about [Asch's Conformity Experiment](/lw/m9/aschs_conformity_experiment/ "Asch's Conformity Experiment").
It's a good bit of writing, but I mostly pass by without thinking about it too muc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9SsXwNpXtn7RQrotS/cross-cultural-maps-and-asch-s-conformity-experiment |
# AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol
There have been a couple of [brief](/r/discussion/lw/ndk/open_thread_march_7_march_13_2016/d5s8) [discussions](/r/discussion/lw/ndk/open_thread_march_7_march_13_2016/d5sb) of this in the Open Thread, but it seems likely to generate more so here's a place for it.
The original [paper in Natur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vxBrvYzdTmgJ46NX/alphago-versus-lee-sedol |
# Astrobiology, Astronomy, and the Fermi Paradox II: Space & Time Revisited
After a 6+ month hiatus driven by grad school and personal projects, I am finally able to continue my sequence on astrobiology. I was flabbergasted by the positive response my last post got, and despite my status as a biologist with a hobby r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/83oghBCH4ZfJS2i3s/astrobiology-astronomy-and-the-fermi-paradox-ii-space-and |
# Prediction challenge: Zika and birth rates
I've been wondering about good new topics for LW, and prediction might be one of them.
The effect of the Zika virus-- and human reactions to it-- on birth rates has the combination of being hard enough to be interesting, not being heavily plowed over by partisans, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGZn9p8K8sAHxTBor/prediction-challenge-zika-and-birth-rates |
# Look for Lone Correct Contrarians
**Related to:** [The Correct Contrarian Cluster](/lw/1kh/the_correct_contrarian_cluster/), [The General Factor of Correctness](http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/)
_(Content note: Explicitly about spreading rationalist memes, increasing the size ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hN6fxLvEk6wCXviS5/look-for-lone-correct-contrarians |
# The Thyroid Madness : Core Argument, Evidence, Probabilities and Predictions
I've made a couple of recent posts about hypothyroidism:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/nbm/thyroid\_hormones\_chronic\_fatigue\_and_fibromyalgia/
http://lesswrong.com/lw/n8u/a\_medical\_mystery\_thyroid\_hormones_chronic/
It appears t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9yK4Wngs6u5Fmuseb/the-thyroid-madness-core-argument-evidence-probabilities-and |
# Newsjacking for Rationality and Effective Altruism
**Summary:** This post describes the steps I took to newsjack a breaking story to promote Rationality and Effective Altruism ideas in an op-ed piece, so that anyone can take similar steps to newsjack a relevant story.
**Introduction**
[Newsjacking](http://www.news... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vqhuaXPyzxHZJcBTd/newsjacking-for-rationality-and-effective-altruism |
# How I infiltrated the Raëlians (and was hugged by their leader)
I was invited by a stranger I met on a plane and actually went to a meeting of Raëlians (known in some LW circles as "the flying saucer cult") in 沖縄, Japan. It was right next t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLpTSDhndsDhcdeA8/how-i-infiltrated-the-raelians-and-was-hugged-by-their |
# Link: Evidence-Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked
John Ioannidis has written a very insightful and entertaining article about the current state of the movement which calls itself "Evidence-Based Medicine". The paper is available ahead of print at [http://www.jclinepi.com/article/S0895-4356(16)00147-5/pdf](http://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9R7gcCGb8uHj5hRrF/link-evidence-based-medicine-has-been-hijacked |
# Lesswrong Potential Changes
I have compiled many suggestions about the future of lesswrong into a document here:
[https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hH9mBkpg2g1rJc3E3YV5Qk-b-QeT2hHZSzgbH9dvQNE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hH9mBkpg2g1rJc3E3YV5Qk-b-QeT2hHZSzgbH9dvQNE/edit?usp=sharing)
It's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X4xwCBRi4CRupZa6G/lesswrong-potential-changes |
# The increasing uselessness of Promoted
For some time now, "Promoted" has been reserved for articles written by MIRI staff, mostly about MIRI activities. Which, I suppose, would be reasonable, if this were MIRI's blog. But it isn't. MIRI has its own [blog](https://intelligence.org/blog/). It seems to me inconveni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/he2k4Svb75weYXTvt/the-increasing-uselessness-of-promoted |
# Common Misconceptions about Dual Process Theories of Human Reasoning
_(This is mostly a summary of [Evans (2012)](http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199734689.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199734689-e-8); the fifth misconception mentioned is original research, although I have high confidence in it.)_
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/McfrewmHFHgKPEBDK/common-misconceptions-about-dual-process-theories-of-human |
# The Price Of Glee In China
*\[Epistemic status: Overly simplistic treatment of a horrifyingly complex topic; I can only hope I haven’t missed enough to completely embarrass myself\]*
**I.**
Noah Smith [reviews](http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-16/there-s-trade-and-then-there-s-good-trade) recent econo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oMiogKLkK8L59WzDe/the-price-of-glee-in-china |
# "3 Reasons It’s Irrational to Demand ‘Rationalism’ in Social Justice Activism"
The lead article on everydayfeminism.com on March 25:
[3 Reasons It’s Irrational to Demand ‘Rationalism’ in Social Justice Activism](http://everydayfeminism.com/2016/03/why-rationalism-is-irrational/ "'Irrational to demand rationalism'")... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5GuKCCM3qfxmHYi8/3-reasons-it-s-irrational-to-demand-rationalism-in-social |
# Lesswrong 2016 Survey
It’s time for a new survey!
===========================
[**Take the survey now**](/2016survey)
The details of the last survey can be found [here](/lw/l5k/2014_less_wrong_censussurvey/). And the results can be found [here](/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/).
I posted a few weeks back asking for [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hCWKHLKSgW5afmoaR/lesswrong-2016-survey |
# Consider having sparse insides
It's easier to seek true beliefs if you keep your (epistemic) identity small. (E.g., if you avoid beliefs like "I am a democrat", and say only "I am a seeker of accurate world-models, whatever those turn out to be".)
It seems analogously easier to seek effective internal architectures... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GjxzmBrKPFttF8sdB/consider-having-sparse-insides |
# Happy Notice Your Surprise Day!
One of the most powerful rationalist techniques is [noticing your surprise](/lw/if/your_strength_as_a_rationalist/).
It ties in to several deep issues. One of them relates to one of my [favorite LW comments](/lw/1mh/that_magical_click/1hd7) (the [second highest](/topcomments/) upvo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i75ZHzMqgvcsZPbJs/happy-notice-your-surprise-day |
# Maximizing a quantity while ignoring effect through some channel
Chris Olah originally came up with this idea and I helped to formalize it.
Let $A$ be the AI's action, and $B$ and $C$ quantities possibly affected by the action. For example, suppose $C$ is the amount of reward signal an AI is receiving, and $B$ i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037513c/maximizing-a-quantity-while-ignoring-effect-through-some-channel |
# Tonic Judo
_(Content note: This is a story about one of the times that I've applied my understanding of rationality to reduce the severity of an affect-laden situation. This may remind you of [Bayesian Judo](/lw/i5/bayesian_judo/), because it involves the mental availability and use of basic rationality techniques t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5imSj9SBpRQRKyRFE/tonic-judo |
# The Ideology Is Not The Movement
**I.**
Why is there such a strong Sunni/Shia divide?
I know the Comparative Religion 101 answer. The early Muslims were debating who was the rightful caliph. Some of them said Abu Bakr, others said Ali, and the dispute has been going on ever since. On the other hand, that was fourt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtHd6sfdr2bZHa6Pb/the-ideology-is-not-the-movement |
# Turning the Technical Crank
A few months ago, Vaniver wrote [a really long post](/lw/n0l/lesswrong_20/) speculating about potential futures for Less Wrong, with a focus on the idea that the spread of the Less Wrong diaspora has left the site weak and fragmented. I wasn't here for our high water mark, so I don't real... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7txtoRZHMjYnekYjJ/turning-the-technical-crank |
# [link] Disjunctive AI Risk Scenarios
Arguments for risks from general AI are sometimes criticized on the grounds that they rely on a series of linear events, each of which has to occur for the proposed scenario to go through. For example, that a sufficiently intelligent AI could escape from containment, that it coul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCsWneqPp2ntgDLAP/link-disjunctive-ai-risk-scenarios |
# My new rationality/futurism podcast
I've started a podcast called [Future Strategist](https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521) which will focus on decision making and futurism. I have created seven shows so far: interviews of computer scientist [Roman Yampolskiy](https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/interview-of-ro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6mbgbaCohebWc7WCf/my-new-rationality-futurism-podcast |
# Positivity Thread :)
Hi everyone! This is an experimental thread to _relax_ and _enjoy_ the company of other aspiring rationalists. _Special rules_ for communication and voting apply here. Please play along!
(If for whatever reason you cannot or don't want to follow the rules, please _don't_ post in this thread. Ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rSCusQpFiEGdGsMNb/positivity-thread |
# The Thyroid Madness: Two Apparently Contradictory Studies. Proof?
_Recap: (See also: [http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/nef/the\_thyroid\_madness\_core\_argument_evidence/](/r/discussion/lw/nef/the_thyroid_madness_core_argument_evidence/) and previous posts)
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and Fibromyalgia all look... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rnM3RySn4Ng3mpszD/the-thyroid-madness-two-apparently-contradictory-studies |
# The Sally-Anne fallacy
_Cross-posted from [my blog](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2016/04/09/sally-anne-fallacy.html)_
I'd like to coin a term. The **Sally-Anne fallacy** is the mistake of assuming that somone believes something, simply because that thing is true.^1^
The name comes from the [Sally-Anne test](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ntmpCvPDh3uhAi6j/the-sally-anne-fallacy |
# Several free CFAR summer programs on rationality and AI safety
CFAR will be running several free summer programs this summer which are currently taking applications. Please apply if you’re interested, and forward the programs also to anyone else who may be a good fit!
EuroSPARC — July 19-27, 2016
-------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LLQYp53vop5BuyKBF/several-free-cfar-summer-programs-on-rationality-and-ai |
# Using humility to counteract shame
"Pride is not the opposite of shame, but its source. True humility is the only antidote to shame."
Uncle Iroh, "Avatar: The Last Airbender"
Shame is one of the trickiest emotions to deal with. It is difficult to think about, not to mention discuss with others, and gives rise to i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTHwvK2QxfSeDeSgX/using-humility-to-counteract-shame |
# The Web Browser is Not Your Client (But You Don't Need To Know That)
_(Part of [a sequence](/r/discussion/lw/ngo/turning_the_technical_crank/) on discussion technology and NNTP. As last time, I should probably emphasize that I am a crank on this subject and do not actually expect anything I recommend to be implement... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FPkCPtLATmefLgc2X/the-web-browser-is-not-your-client-but-you-don-t-need-to |
# Sleepwalk bias, self-defeating predictions and existential risk
_Connected to: [The Argument from Crisis and Pessimism Bias](/lw/l8i/the_argument_from_crisis_and_pessimism_bias/)_
When we predict the future, we often seem to underestimate the degree to which people will act to avoid adverse outcomes. Examples inclu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEShPto3F2aDdT3RY/sleepwalk-bias-self-defeating-predictions-and-existential |
# What is up with carbon dioxide and cognition? An offer
One or two research groups have published work on carbon dioxide and cognition. The state of the published literature is confusing.
[Here](http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/1104789/) is one paper on the topic. The authors investigate a proprietary cognitive benchmark, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pPZ27eZdBXtGuLqZC/what-is-up-with-carbon-dioxide-and-cognition-an-offer |
# Book Review: Albion’s Seed
**I.**
[*Albion’s Seed*](https://www.amazon.com/Albions-Seed-British-Folkways-cultural/dp/0195069056/ref=as_li_ss_tl?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1487533337&sr=1-1&keywords=albion's+seed&linkCode=ll1&tag=slatestarcode-20&linkId=9cb7e7ccd8e93a105159e71c2c6522a8) by David Fischer is a history profes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y345zuBetHqGnotwm/book-review-albion-s-seed |
# JFK was not assassinated: prior probability zero events
A lot of [my work](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=601) involves tweaking the utility or probability of an agent to make it believe - or act as if it believed - impossible or almost impossible events. But we have to be careful about this; an agent that bel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEdJfK8dYRm6YSE8w/jfk-was-not-assassinated-prior-probability-zero-events |
# Hedge drift and advanced motte-and-bailey
[Motte and bailey](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/) is a technique by which one protects an interesting but hard-to-defend view by making it similar to a less interesting but more defensible position. Whenever the more interesting ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oMYeJrQmCeoY5sEzg/hedge-drift-and-advanced-motte-and-bailey |
# A Second Year of Spaced Repetition Software in the Classroom
This is a follow-up to [last year's report](/lw/mfm/a_year_of_spaced_repetition_software_in_the/). Here, I will talk about my successes and failures using Spaced Repetition Software (SRS) in the classroom for a second year. The year's not over yet, but I h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dtCfxYubZgRnEkGpQ/a-second-year-of-spaced-repetition-software-in-the-classroom |
# Anything you can do with n AIs, you can do with two (with directly opposed objectives)
Summary: For any normal-form game, it's possible to cast the problem of finding a correlated equilibrium in this game as a 2-player zero-sum game. This seems useful because zero-sum games are easy to analyze and more resistant ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375190/anything-you-can-do-with-n-ais-you-can-do-with-two-with-directly-opposed-objectives |
# Collaborative Truth-Seeking
Summary: We frequently use debates to resolve different opinions about the truth. However, debates are not always the best course for figuring out the truth. In some situations, the technique of collaborative truth-seeking may be more optimal.
Acknowledgments: Thanks to Pete Michaud, Mic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ckwzjbfHTCdPs2Y4J/collaborative-truth-seeking |
# Improving long-run civilisational robustness
People trying to guard civilisation against catastrophe usually focus on one specific kind of catastrophe at a time. This can be useful for building concrete knowledge with some certainty in order for others to build on it. However, there are disadvantages to this catastr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6LP3C6xemL5fuhWtz/improving-long-run-civilisational-robustness |
# Room For More Funding In AI Safety Is Highly Uncertain
_(Crossposted to the [Effective Altruism Forum](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/xl/room_for_more_funding_in_ai_safety_is_highly/))_
* * *
Introduction
In effective altruism, people talk about the [room for more funding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tAHYYvodamCMA9H38/room-for-more-funding-in-ai-safety-is-highly-uncertain |
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part One (Meta and Demographics)
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis
## Overview
* [Results and Dataset](/r/discussion/lw/nkw/2016_lesswrong_diaspora_survey_results/)
* Meta
* Demographics (You are here)
* [LessWrong Usage and Experience](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FDaYqFW8ExjKNwkqa/2016-lesswrong-diaspora-survey-analysis-part-one-meta-and |
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results
Foreword:
============
As we wrap up the 2016 survey, I'd like to start by thanking everybody who took
the time to fill it out. This year we had 3083 respondents, more than twice the
number we had last year. (Source: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014\_survey\_results/) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLALYcWR4xKw7RRnj/2016-lesswrong-diaspora-survey-results |
# Attention! Financial scam targeting Less Wrong users
Recently, multiple suspicious user accounts were created on Less Wrong. These accounts don't post any content in the forum. Instead, they are used only to send private messages to the existing users.
Many users have received a copy of the same message, but differ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hdKmCFr84PGLpZiuL/attention-financial-scam-targeting-less-wrong-users |
# Teachers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
*\[Epistemic status: This is really complicated, this is not my field, people who have spent their entire lives studying this subject have different opinions, and I don’t claim to have done more than a very superficial survey. I welcome corrections on the many inevitable e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K9aLcuxAPyf5jGyFX/teachers-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Book Review: Age of Em
*\[Note: I really liked this book and if I criticize it that’s not meant as an attack but just as what I do with interesting ideas. Note that Robin has offered to debate me about some of this and I’ve said no – mostly because I hate real-time debates and have bad computer hardware – but you ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZerSnxv6FPqvgoYu/book-review-age-of-em |
# Ascended Economy?
*\[Obviously speculative futurism is obviously speculative. Complex futurism may be impossible and I should feel bad for doing it anyway. This is “inspired by” Nick Land – I don’t want to credit him fully since I may be misinterpreting him, and I also don’t want to avoid crediting him at all, so ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ak9wY2t9K3K4GxCXv/ascended-economy |
# Thoughts on hacking aromanticism?
Several years ago, Alicorn wrote an article about how she [hacked herself to be polyamorous](/lw/79x/polyhacking/). I'm interested in methods for hacking myself to be aromantic. I've had some success with this, so I'll share what's worked for me, but I'm really hoping you all will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3fMYQGZ6bARy2XPc/thoughts-on-hacking-aromanticism |
# Review and Thoughts on Current Version of CFAR Workshop
Outline: I will discuss my background and how I prepared for the workshop, and then how I would have prepared differently if I could go back and have the chance to do it again; I will then discuss my experience at the CFAR workshop, and what I would have done d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kkBL6cTCe4sHeDb5Q/review-and-thoughts-on-current-version-of-cfar-workshop |
# Google Deepmind and FHI collaborate to present research at UAI 2016
[Safely Interruptible Agents](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/Interruptibility/)
Oxford academics are teaming up with Google DeepMind to make artificial intelligence safer. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E6DzTk3LwreSjt3xn/google-deepmind-and-fhi-collaborate-to-present-research-at |
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Two (LessWrong Use, Successorship, Diaspora)
2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis
=======================================
Overview
--------
* [Results and Dataset](/r/discussion/lw/nkw/2016_lesswrong_diaspora_survey_results/)
* [Meta](/r/discussion/lw/nmk/2016_l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S9B9FgaTgB9yCEi3k/2016-lesswrong-diaspora-survey-analysis-part-two-lesswrong |
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