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# Availability Heuristic Considered Ambiguous
_(Content note: The experimental results on the availability bias, one of the biases described in Tversky and Kahneman's original work, have been overdetermined, which has led to at least two separate interpretations of the heuristic in the cognitive science literature. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sjtfDdeHbqL2Dnbpr/availability-heuristic-considered-ambiguous |
# In memoryless Cartesian environments, every UDT policy is a CDT+SIA policy
Summary: I define memoryless Cartesian environments (which can model many familiar decision problems), note the similarity to memoryless POMDPs, and define a local optimality condition for policies, which can be roughly stated as "the polic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703751b2/in-memoryless-cartesian-environments-every-udt-policy-is-a |
# Revitalizing Less Wrong seems like a lost purpose, but here are some other ideas
This is a response to ingres' [recent post](/lw/nor/2016_lesswrong_diaspora_survey_analysis_part_two/) sharing Less Wrong survey results. If you haven't read & upvoted it, I strongly encourage you to--they've done a fabulous job of coll... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7sRyf3qYdr8tvrveF/revitalizing-less-wrong-seems-like-a-lost-purpose-but-here |
# Diaspora roundup thread, 15th June 2016
This is a new experimental weekly thread.
Guidelines: Top-level comments here should be links to things written by members of the rationalist community, preferably that would be interesting specifically to this community. Self-promotion is totally fine. Including a very brief... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NJZh7h2PCPvJktAZw/diaspora-roundup-thread-15th-june-2016 |
# Adversity to Success
It's a classic story, your average millionaire tells their story of how they had a life of struggling and subsequently overcame such struggles and went on to become a (multi-)millionaire. "What a great story" everyone says. But why does it happen, and why does it happen so often?
The easy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEpcQSfN8yPctwSdr/adversity-to-success |
# Buying happiness
There's a semi-famous [paper](https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/danielgilbert/files/if-money-doesnt-make-you-happy.nov-12-20101.pdf "paper, PDF, 330KB") by Dunn, Gilbert and Wilson: "If money doesn't make you happy, then you probably aren't spending it right". (Proper reference: Dunn, E.W., Gilbert,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G4psgT7RXmNJS4cDu/buying-happiness |
# Crazy Ideas Thread
This thread is intended to provide a space for 'crazy' ideas. Ideas that spontaneously come to mind (and feel great), ideas you long wanted to tell but never found the place and time for and also for ideas you think should be obvious and simple - but nobody ever mentions them.
Rules for this thr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q77bmexRsqX7gnZv8/crazy-ideas-thread-0 |
# Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning vs. Irrational Human Preferences
At the MIRI colloquium series, we've been discussing at length the new proposal of [cooperative inverse reinforcement learning](http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03137) (henceforth CIRL) as an approach to value learning. Essentially, this approach t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703751bf/cooperative-inverse-reinforcement-learning-vs-irrational-human-preferences |
# Two kinds of Expectations, *one* of which is helpful for rational thinking
Expectation is often used to refer to two totally distinct things: entitlement and anticipation. My basic opinion is that entitlement is a rather counterproductive mental stance to have, while anticipations are really helpful for improving yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2c3Z7nXnfar3BNda/two-kinds-of-expectations-one-of-which-is-helpful-for |
# Are smart contracts AI-complete?
Many people are probably aware of the [hack at DAO](http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/21/11985832/ethereum-cryptocurrency-dao-theft-fork-buterin), using a bug in their smart contract system to steal millions of dollars worth of the crypto currency Ethereum.
There's various arguments as... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ndkh3gShLYkasFGNa/are-smart-contracts-ai-complete |
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Three (Mental Health, Basilisk, Blogs and Media)
2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis
=======================================
Overview
--------
* [Results and Dataset](/r/discussion/lw/nkw/2016_lesswrong_diaspora_survey_results/)
* [Meta](/r/discussion/lw/nmk/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xi6syQenk24nQTzgz/2016-lesswrong-diaspora-survey-analysis-part-three-mental |
# Notes on the Safety in Artificial Intelligence conference
These are my notes and observations after attending the [Safety in Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cmu.edu/safartint/) (SafArtInt) conference, which was co-hosted by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and Carnegie Mellon University o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awB6q4vtBn4oo2kr7/notes-on-the-safety-in-artificial-intelligence-conference |
# Zombies Redacted
I looked at my old post [Zombies! Zombies?](/lw/p7/zombies_zombies/) and it seemed to have some extraneous content. This is a redacted and slightly rewritten version.
* * *
Your "zombie", in the philosophical usage of the term, is putatively a being that is exactly like you in every respect—ident... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7DmA3yWwa6AT5jFXt/zombies-redacted |
# The map of future models
TL;DR: Many models of the future exist. Several are relevant. Hyperbolic model is strongest, but too strange.
Our need: correct model of the future
Different people: different models = no communication.
Assumptions:
Model of the future = main driving force of historical process + graph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3j99HsgqH6RBNWyQ5/the-map-of-future-models |
# Link: Re-reading Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow
"A bit over four years ago I wrote a[glowing review](https://jasoncollins.org/2012/01/18/kahnemans-thinking-fast-and-slow/)of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. I described it as a “magnificent book” and “one of the best books I have read”. I praised the wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aab3E4dcfxN8BPZRy/link-re-reading-kahneman-s-thinking-fast-and-slow |
# [LINK] Concrete problems in AI safety
From the [Google Research blog](https://research.googleblog.com/2016/06/bringing-precision-to-ai-safety.html):
We believe that AI technologies are likely to be overwhelmingly useful and beneficial for humanity. But part of being a responsible steward of any new technology is th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M5QQZT4enxqiSNnye/link-concrete-problems-in-ai-safety |
# tDCS, Neuroscientists' Open Letter To DIY Brain Hackers
"The evidence of harm would be the evidence that you can hurt some cognitive functions with the same stimulation protocols that help another cognitive function. But they're completely correct that we don't have any evidence saying you're definitely hurting your... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xAgtsWe7MctkCpXBr/tdcs-neuroscientists-open-letter-to-diy-brain-hackers |
# Two forms of procrastination
I noticed something about myself when comparing two forms of procrastination:
a) reading online discussions,
b) watching movies online.
Reading online discussions (LessWrong, SSC, Reddit, Facebook) and sometimes writing a comment there, is a huge sink of time for me. On the o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pZunJQdD6g7NfCnm/two-forms-of-procrastination |
# Things Probably Matter
A while back when [I wrote about](http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/03/23/the-price-of-glee-in-china/) how China’s economic development might not have increased happiness there much, Scott Sumner wrote a really interesting response, [Does Anything Matter?](http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2016... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/efMgZujzfjP9B9H4R/things-probably-matter |
# Fallacymania: party game where you notice fallacies in arguments
Fallacymania is a game developed by Moscow LessWrong community. Main goals of this game is to help people notice fallacies in arguments, and of course to have fun. The game requires 3-20 players (recommended 4-12), and some materials: printed A3 sheets... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gw8vYALJgQ29qQsDM/fallacymania-party-game-where-you-notice-fallacies-in |
# Should you change where you live? (also - a worked “how to solve a question”)
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/should-you-change-where-you-live-a-worked-how-to-solve-a-question/](http://bearlamp.com.au/should-you-change-where-you-live-a-worked-how-to-solve-a-question/)
It's not a hard question, but it potenti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mqNxF9xJx4SNyN9Ht/should-you-change-where-you-live-also-a-worked-how-to-solve |
# How The West Was Won
**I.**
Someone recently linked me to Bryan Caplan’s post [A Hardy Weed: How Traditionalists Underestimate Western Civ](http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/a_hardy_week_ho.html). He argues that “western civilization”‘s supposed defenders don’t give it enough credit. They’re always worryi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m7THsgXyxxiEXgyHv/how-the-west-was-won |
# The Problem (TM) - Analyse a conversation
Originally published here: [http://bearlamp.com.au/the-problem-tm-analyse-a-conversation/](http://bearlamp.com.au/the-problem-tm-analyse-a-conversation/)
Part 2: [http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/nt8/the\_problem\_tm\_part\_2/](/r/discussion/lw/nt8/the_problem_tm_part_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAEsPxToMzn9Wsz4f/the-problem-tm-analyse-a-conversation |
# [link] MIRI's 2015 in review
[https://intelligence.org/2016/07/29/2015-in-review/](https://intelligence.org/2016/07/29/2015-in-review/)
The introduction:
> As Luke had done in years past (see [2013 in review](https://intelligence.org/2013/12/20/2013-in-review-operations) and [2014 in review](https://intelligence.o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3PXxvBgTeXi7wvNKf/link-miri-s-2015-in-review |
# Superintelligence and physical law
It's been a few years since I read http://lesswrong.com/lw/qj/einsteins_speed/ and the rest of the quantum physics sequence, but I recently learned about the company Nutonian, http://www.nutonian.com/. Basically it's a narrow AI system that looks at unstructured data and tries out ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5u92DNaNDKmi9HTwr/superintelligence-and-physical-law |
# Now is the time to eliminate mosquitoes
[“In 2015, there were roughly 214 million malaria cases and an estimated 438 000 malaria deaths.”](http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/malaria/en/) While we don’t know how many humans malaria has killed, an estimate of [half of everyone who has ever died](http://www.the-sci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yW9mc6omvmrHHZ4kw/now-is-the-time-to-eliminate-mosquitoes |
# Low hanging productivity - improving your workspace
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/low-hanging-productivity/]( http://bearlamp.com.au/low-hanging-productivity/ )
Tl;dr - Simple changes to workspaces like a big screen can make a big difference.
* * *
This week I spent a few days away from my usual desk. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBLZf7JzHKRzYMbQi/low-hanging-productivity-improving-your-workspace |
# A Review of Signal Data Science
I took part in the second [signal data science](http://signaldatascience.com/) cohort earlier this year, and since I found out about Signal through a [slatestarcodex post](http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/11/ot47-openai/) a few months back (it was also covered [here on less wrong](/l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ivHnGZnbhgRJyk2mA/a-review-of-signal-data-science |
# Identity map
“Identity” here refers to the question “will my copy be me, and if yes, on which conditions?” It results in several paradoxes which I will not repeat here, hoping that they are known to the reader.
Identity is one of the most complex problems, like safe AI or aging. It only appears be simple. It is com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKEG5vmBtgrqG6yWH/identity-map |
# European Soylent alternatives
A person at our local LW meetup (not active at LW.com) tested various Soylent alternatives that are available in Europe and wrote a post about them:
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
Over the course of the last three months, I've sampled parts of the
european Soyl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JXPJH4WzwXp73nkeJ/european-soylent-alternatives |
# The ladder of abstraction and giving examples
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/examples/]( http://bearlamp.com.au/examples/)
When we talk about a concept or a point it's important to understand the ladder of abstraction. Covered [before](/lw/5kz/the_5second_level/) on [lesswrong](/lw/bc3/sotw_be_specific/)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nGFyJ39NrNsihheZk/the-ladder-of-abstraction-and-giving-examples |
# Superintelligence via whole brain emulation
Most planning around AI risk seems to start from the premise that superintelligence will come from de novo AGI before whole brain emulation becomes possible. I haven't seen any analysis that assumes both uploads-first and the AI FOOM thesis (Edit: [apparently I fail at lit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jMKZKc2GiFGegRXvN/superintelligence-via-whole-brain-emulation |
# The barriers to the task
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/the-barriers-to-the-task/](http://bearlamp.com.au/the-barriers-to-the-task/)
* * *
For about two months now I have been putting in effort to run in the mornings. To make this happen, I had to take away all the barriers to me wanting to do that. Ther... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DjRT3crWZNqxM8WYW/the-barriers-to-the-task |
# The Future of Humanity Institute is hiring!
FHI is accepting applications for a two-year position as a full-time Research Project Manager. Responsibilities will include coordinating, monitoring, and developing FHI’s activities, seeking funding, organizing workshops and conferences, and effectively communicating FHI’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fpETdH3ovMui99CJ3/the-future-of-humanity-institute-is-hiring |
# Deepmind Plans for Rat-Level AI
Demis Hassabis gives a [great presentation](https://youtu.be/vQXAsdMa_8A) on the state of Deepmind's work as of April 20, 2016. Skip to 23:12 for the statement of the goal of creating a rat-level AI -- "An AI that can do everything a rat can do," in his words. From his tone, it sound... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SSj6Rrx9ZN9WF6eaB/deepmind-plans-for-rat-level-ai |
# DARPA accepting proposals for explainable AI
"The XAI program will focus the development of multiple systems on addressing challenges problems in two areas: (1) machine learning problems to classify events of interest in heterogeneous, multimedia data; and (2) machine learning problems to construct decision policies... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E3SohxeHa8RZ4C4T4/darpa-accepting-proposals-for-explainable-ai |
# The map of the risks of aliens
Stephen Hawking famously [said](http://www.space.com/29999-stephen-hawking-intelligent-alien-life-danger.html) that aliens are one of the main risks to human existence. In this map I will try to show all rational ways how aliens could result in human extinction. Paradoxically, even if ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MacCtfKJkBW6NuENe/the-map-of-the-risks-of-aliens |
# Inefficient Games
There are several well-known games in which the pareto optima and Nash equilibria are disjoint sets.
The most famous is probably the prisoner's dilemma. Races to the bottom or tragedies of the commons typically have this feature as well.
I [proposed](https://economics.stackexchange.com/ques... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7m6SCnR4nMWzAyL8d/inefficient-games |
# Hedging
Original post: [ http://bearlamp.com.au/hedging/](http://bearlamp.com.au/hedging/)
**Hedging.**
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_%28linguistics%29](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_%28linguistics%29)
Examples:
* Men are evil
* All men are evil
* Some men are evil
* m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yd8nc9zdaZ9Jxfqtd/hedging |
# Do you want to be like Kuro5hin? Because this is how you get to be like Kuro5hin.
I log in this morning on a whim, and notice I have -15 karma. I dig around for a bit and find this:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/nsm/open\_thread\_jul\_25\_jul\_31\_2016/ddjm
To be clear, that's a block of four comments, each at -10, fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E7i7rNo62ZXCND8Xz/do-you-want-to-be-like-kuro5hin-because-this-is-how-you-get |
# Recent updates to gwern.net (2015-2016)
> Previously: [2011](/lw/8kv/recent_updates_to_gwernnet/); [2012-2013](/lw/h0b/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20122013/); [2013-2014](/lw/kgt/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20132014/); [2014-2015](/lw/mxn/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20142015/)
"When I was one-and-twenty / I heard a w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLkPXwGiaqAdGdD4C/recent-updates-to-gwern-net-2015-2016 |
# The call of the void
### Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/the-call-of-the-void]( http://bearlamp.com.au/the-call-of-the-void)
**L'appel du vide - The call of the void.**
-------------------------------------------
When you are standing on the balcony of a tall building, looking down at the ground and on som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hR997aBM26oRFpLhX/the-call-of-the-void |
# UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence
Source article: [http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/08/29/center-for-human-compatible-artificial-intelligence/](http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/08/29/center-for-human-compatible-artificial-intelligence/ "UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatibl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8G5oauvEdqg7DFyz7/uc-berkeley-launches-center-for-human-compatible-artificial |
# New music powers
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/new-music-powers/](http://bearlamp.com.au/new-music-powers/)
* * *
I have [written before](http://bearlamp.com.au/one-model-of-understanding-independent-differences-in-sensory-perception/) about how I am pretty terrible at canvassing music in my head. This l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6S5FDmMibBPmabdHg/new-music-powers |
# The 12 Second Rule (i.e. think before answering) and other Epistemic Norms
Epistemic Status/Effort: I'm 85% confident this is a good idea, and that the broader idea is at least a good direction. Have gotten feedback from a few people and spend some time actively thinking through ramifications of it. Interested in mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kBWMfeRjXQbfxqHL/the-12-second-rule-i-e-think-before-answering-and-other |
# Jocko Podcast
I've recently been extracting extraordinary value from the [Jocko Podcast](https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/jocko-podcast/id1070322219?mt=2).
Jocko Willink is a retired Navy SEAL commander, jiu-jitsu black belt, management consultant and, in my opinion, master rationalist. His podcast typically con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxTRnLPpfE7AGZwC7/jocko-podcast |
# [Link] How the Simulation Argument Dampens Future Fanaticism
[Very comprehensive analysis by Brian Tomasik](https://foundational-research.org/how-the-simulation-argument-dampens-future-fanaticism) on whether (and to what extent) the simulation argument should change our altruistic priorities. He concludes that the p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQFcwTBQX6PparWi7/link-how-the-simulation-argument-dampens-future-fanaticism |
# 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Four (Politics, Calibration & Probability, Futurology, Charity & Effective Altruism)
Politics
--------
The LessWrong survey has a very involved section dedicated to politics. In previous analysis the benefits of this weren't fully realized. In the 2016 analysis we can l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E6He9bTPnafc2N9HD/2016-lesswrong-diaspora-survey-analysis-part-four-politics |
# It’s Bayes All The Way Up
_\[Epistemic status: Very speculative. I am not a neuroscientist and apologize for any misinterpretation of the papers involved. Thanks to the people who posted these papers in [r/slatestarcodex](http://slatestarcodex.reddit.com/). See also [Mysticism and Pattern-Matching](http://slatestarc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrEwDMN4YXp5YWD45/it-s-bayes-all-the-way-up |
# A Weird Trick To Manage Your Identity
I’ve always been uncomfortable being labeled “American.” Though I’m a citizen of the United States, the term feels restrictive and confining. It obliges me to identify with aspects of the United States with which I am not thrilled. I have similar feelings of limitation with resp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7DoALJtRFo6Sseua/a-weird-trick-to-manage-your-identity |
# Superintelligence FAQ
*Editor's note: this post is several years out of date and doesn't include information on modern systems like GPT-4, but is still a solid layman's introduction to why superintelligence might be important, dangerous and confusing.*
**1: What is superintelligence?**
A superintelligence is a min... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LTtNXM9shNM9AC2mp/superintelligence-faq |
# MIRI's 2016 Fundraiser
**Update December 22**: Our donors came together during the fundraiser to get us most of the way to our $750,000 goal. In all, 251 donors contributed **$589,248**, making this our second-biggest fundraiser to date. Although we fell short of our target by $160,000, we have since made up this sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e85dak8Jwi7oFqfz9/miri-s-2016-fundraiser |
# A Child's Petrov Day Speech
30 years ago, the Cold War was raging on. If you don’t know what that is, it was the period from 1947 to 1991 where both the U.S and Russia had large stockpiles of nuclear weapons and were threatening to use them on each other. The only thing that stopped them from doing so was the knowle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PXcPuydmBnqexJK8s/a-child-s-petrov-day-speech |
# Linkposts now live!
You can now submit links to LW! As the rationality community has grown up, more and more content has moved off LW to other places, and so rather than trying to generate more content here we'll instead try to collect more content here. My hope is that Less Wron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2n6jbaJfnHgYTuxtX/linkposts-now-live |
# Astrobiology III: Why Earth?
After many tribulations, my astrobiology bloggery is back up and running using Wordpress rather than Blogger because Blogger is completely unusable these days. I've taken the opportunity of the move to make better graphs for my old posts.
"The Solar System: Why Earth?"
https://t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PJ4RPks9GkWYgdmxx/astrobiology-iii-why-earth |
# MIRI AMA plus updates
MIRI is running an AMA on the Effective Altruism Forum tomorrow (Wednesday, Oct. 11): [**Ask MIRI Anything**](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/12r/ask_miri_anything_ama/). Questions are welcome in the interim!
Nate also recently posted [**a more detailed version of our 2016 fundraising pitch**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MwZBmSmQqNh3wTkrz/miri-ama-plus-updates |
# Map and Territory: a new rationalist group blog
If you want to engage with the rationalist community, LessWrong is mostly no longer the place to do it. Discussions aside, most of the activity has moved into the diaspora. There are a few big voices like [Robin](http://www.overcomingbias.com/) and [Scott](http://slate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yvXSGh7djNhPoFnPL/map-and-territory-a-new-rationalist-group-blog |
# The Moral Of The Story
*\[content warning: puns. This is mostly self-plagiarism from my Tumblr and Twitter\]*
Once upon a time there was a small desert village with a single well outside town. One day a young woman went to the well to fetch water, and the well heard her crying, and asked “What’s wrong?”
She stoppe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZMc9Xzqw5WcCMHrr/the-moral-of-the-story |
# *How* people shut down thought because of high-status respectable halos
https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2016/10/20/ra/
A detailed look at the belief that high status social structures can be so much better than anything one can think of that there's no point in even trying to think about the details of what to d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5sxXWBWZgt3Y8aPz/how-people-shut-down-thought-because-of-high-status |
# Attacking the grain of truth problem using Bayes-Savage agents
$$\newcommand{\Bool}{\{0,1\}}$$
$$\newcommand{\Words}{{\Bool^*}}$$
$$\newcommand{\Sagas}{{\Bool^\omega}}$$
$$\newcommand{\Estr}{{\boldsymbol{\lambda}}}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\Sgn}{sgn}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\Supp}{supp}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375273/attacking-the-grain-of-truth-problem-using-bayes-savage |
# What's the most annoying part of your life/job?
Hi, I'm an entrepreneur looking for a startup idea.
In my experience, the reason most startups fail is because they never actually solve anyone's problem. So I'm cheating and starting out by identifying a specific person with a specific problem.
So I'm asking you, wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNb6PRXNSMfcvd8zJ/what-s-the-most-annoying-part-of-your-life-job |
# Updatelessness and Son of X
The purpose of this post is to discuss the relationship between the concepts of Updatelessness and the "Son of" operator.
Making a decision theory that is reflectively stable is hard. Most agents would self-modify into a agent if given the chance. For example if a CDT agent knows that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037528e/updatelessness-and-son-of-x |
# The Pyramid And The Garden
**I.**
A recent breakthrough in pseudoscience: the location of the Great Pyramid of Giza encodes the speed of light to seven decimal places.
This is actually true. The speed of light in a vacuum [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light) 299,792,458 meters per second. The coordin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HSwh2mE3tX6xvZ2W/the-pyramid-and-the-garden |
# Yudkowsky vs Trump: the nuclear showdown.
Sorry for the slightly clickbait-y title.
Some commenters have expressed, in the last open thread, their disappointment that figureheads from or near the rationality sphere seemed to have lost their cool when it came to this US election: when they were supposed to be calm a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftKcnYL72TzhypCGq/yudkowsky-vs-trump-the-nuclear-showdown |
# The Developmental Role of Play
When I was a kid, maybe around 8 or 9, I had a cabinet full of Legos. To the casual observer it was a few messy shelves crammed with plastic blocks, but to me it was a portal into another world. Opening it up I’d see little buildings and people resting in suspended animation, and as I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXNxy8CiKY5wDgPXv/the-developmental-role-of-play |
# Matching donation fundraisers can be harmfully dishonest.
Anna Salamon, executive director of CFAR (named with permission), recently wrote to me asking for my thoughts on fundraisers using matching donations. (Anna, together with co-writer Steve Rayhawk, has previously written on [community norms that promote truth ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vXb3tWGC8pvL4w88n/matching-donation-fundraisers-can-be-harmfully-dishonest |
# Rationality Heuristic for Bias Detection: Updating Towards the Net Weight of Evidence
> Bias tests look for violations of basic universal properties of rational belief such as subadditivity of probabilities or anchoring on randomly-generated numbers. I propose a new one for the temporal consistency of beliefs: agent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jmgKcgY6HSnHqAE9J/rationality-heuristic-for-bias-detection-updating-towards |
# Sample means, how do they work?
You know how people make public health decisions about food fortification, and medical decisions about taking supplements, based on things like the Recommended Daily Allowance? Well, there's an article in _Nutrients_ titled [A Statistical Error in the Estimation of the Recommended Die... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qSEa9coTuc95Rh6FA/sample-means-how-do-they-work |
# Nassim Taleb on Election Forecasting
Nassim Taleb recently posted this [mathematical draft of election forecasting](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf) refinement to his Twitter.
The math isn’t super important to see why it’s so cool. His model seems to be that we should ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qi9pTeQB64R7EgMwk/nassim-taleb-on-election-forecasting |
# A Return to Discussion
_Epistemic Status: Casual_
It’s taken me a long time to fully acknowledge this, but people who “[come from the internet](https://xkcd.com/262/)” are no longer a minority subculture. Senators [tweet](https://twitter.com/bensasse?lang=en) and suburban moms post Minion memes. Which means that t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4YADMzQeRD9SxtF6b/a-return-to-discussion |
# On the importance of Less Wrong, or another single conversational locus
_Epistemic status: My actual best bet. But I used to think differently; and I don't know how to fully explicate the updating I did (I'm not sure what fully formed argument I could give my past self, that would cause her to update), so you shoul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8rYxw9xZfwy86jkpG/on-the-importance-of-less-wrong-or-another-single |
# Stand-up comedy as a way to improve rationality skills
_Epistemic status_: Believed, but hard to know how much to adjust for opportunity costs
I'm wondering whether stand-up comedy would be a good way to expand and test one's "rationality skills" and/or just general interaction skills. One thing I like about it is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nobn7tqN6KGtyr374/stand-up-comedy-as-a-way-to-improve-rationality-skills |
# Using a Spreadsheet to Make Good Decisions: Five Examples
_[I've been told](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/14a/using_a_spreadsheet_to_make_good_decisions_five/936?context=3) that [LessWrong is coming back now](/lw/o5z/on_the_importance_of_less_wrong_or_another_single/), so I'm cross-posting this rationality post o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZ9WGEJ85fXNp95wh/using-a-spreadsheet-to-make-good-decisions-five-examples |
# Epistemic Effort
_Epistemic Effort: Thought seriously for 5 minutes about it. Thought a bit about how to test it empirically. Spelled out my model a little bit. I'm >80% confident this is worth trying and seeing what happens. Spent 45 min writing post._
I've been pleased to see "Epistemic Status" hit a critical mas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oDy27zfRf8uAbJR6M/epistemic-effort |
# Recent AI control posts
| Over at [medium](https://medium.com/ai-control), I’m continuing to write about AI control; here’s a roundup from the last month. Strategy ======== * [Prosaic AI control](https://medium.com/ai-control/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2#.64b7mg553) argues that AI control research should first co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tvCjiCMtPhiffXWgD/recent-ai-control-posts |
# Making intentions concrete - Trigger-Action Planning
*I'll do it at some point.*
*I'll answer this message later.*
*I could try this sometime.*
The most common consequence of these thoughts is a lot of procrastination. The person who has them may genuinely intend to do the task, but with the "when" being vague, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v4nNuJBZWPkMkgQRb/making-intentions-concrete-trigger-action-planning |
# Which areas of rationality are underexplored? - Discussion Thread
There seems to actually be real momentum behind this attempt as reviving Less Wrong. One of the oldest issues on LW has been the lack of content. For this reason, I thought that it might be worthwhile opening a thread where people can suggest how we c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/afQtTxjCeN4XXTAJ4/which-areas-of-rationality-are-underexplored-discussion |
# Fact Posts: How and Why
The most useful thinking skill I've taught myself, which I think should be more widely practiced, is writing what I call "fact posts." I write a bunch of these on my [blog](https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/). (I write fact posts about pregnancy and childbirth [here.](https://parentingwithe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sdx6A6yLByRRs8iLY/fact-posts-how-and-why |
# CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety
A bit about our last few months:
* We’ve been working on getting a simple clear mission and an organization that actually works. We think of our goal as analogous to the transition that the old Singularity Institute underwent under Lukeprog (during which chaos was replaced by a si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zYXD8RyB6fv2czFz/cfar-s-new-focus-and-ai-safety |
# Beware of identifying with schools of thought
As a child I decided to do a philosophy course as an extracurricular activity. In it the teacher explained to us the notion of schools of philosophical thought. According to him classifying philosophers as adhering either to school A or school B, is typical for Anglo tho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QQbiWee6ZrwwkEpSh/beware-of-identifying-with-schools-of-thought |
# Land war in Asia
**Introduction**: Here's a misconception about World War II that I think is harmful and I don't see refuted often enough.
**Misconception**: In 1941, Hitler was sitting pretty with most of Europe conquered and no huge difficulties on the horizon. Then, due to his megalomania and bullshit ideology, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L8NCj8tRpJYgYmKvW/land-war-in-asia |
# How I use Anki to learn mathematics
Here is my first less wrong post (after years spent [blogging](http://www.milchior.fr/blog) in French). I discovered [Anki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Spaced_repetition) on this blog. I'm now sharing the tips I've been using for months to learn mathematics with Anki. Example... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ZugMc4E5959Xh86i/how-i-use-anki-to-learn-mathematics |
# Combining Prediction Technologies to Help Moderate Discussions
I came across a [2015 blog post by Vitalik Buterin](https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/11/24/applications-of-security-deposits-and-prediction-markets-you-might-not-have-thought-about/) that contains some ideas similar to Paul Christiano's recent [Crowdsourci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f9i65H986t8mrfs2M/combining-prediction-technologies-to-help-moderate |
# Is Caviar a Risk Factor For Being a Millionaire?
Today, my paper "Is caviar a risk factor for being a millionaire?" was published in the Christmas Edition of the BMJ (formerly the British Medical Journal). The paper is available at http://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i6536 but it is unfortunately behind a paywall. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eSosndJmKT3KmDRt8/is-caviar-a-risk-factor-for-being-a-millionaire |
# Be secretly wrong
> "I feel like I'm not the sort of person who's allowed to have opinions about the important issues like AI risk."
>
> "What's the bad thing that might happen if you expressed your opinion?"
>
> "It would be wrong in some way I hadn't foreseen, and people would think less of me."
>
> "Do you thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdYtrpgpJMdQyPFq2/be-secretly-wrong |
# 2016: a year in review in science
As another year comes around, and our solstice plans come to a head I want to review this year's great progress in science to follow on from [last year's great review](/lw/n2m/this_years_biggest_scientific_achievements/).
The general criteria is: World changing science, not politic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QodwF6xGTccZpWDC9/2016-a-year-in-review-in-science |
# Further discussion of CFAR’s focus on AI safety, and the good things folks wanted from “cause neutrality”
Follow-up to:
* [CFAR's new focus, and AI safety](/r/lesswrong/lw/o7o/cfars_new_focus_and_ai_safety/)
* [CFAR's new mission statement](/r/discussion/lw/o9j/cfars_new_mission_statement_on_our_website/) (link... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mPap4eYwGEcXBzDiH/further-discussion-of-cfar-s-focus-on-ai-safety-and-the-good |
# The Partial Control Fallacy
_This is a cross-post from __http://pathsensitive.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-partial-control-fallacy.html_
Around the time I started grad school, I applied for a few prestigious fellowships. Winning is determined by several factors. Some are just an application, while some have a follow-up... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ecz5iMQ7wNmhEaCh/the-partial-control-fallacy |
# Circles of discussion
On Wednesday I had lunch with Raph Levien, and came away with a picture of how a website that fostered the highest quality discussion might work.
Principles:
* It’s possible that the right thing is a quick fix to Less Wrong as it is; this is about exploring what could be done if we started ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2kXQwuMDtKwyJwN4D/circles-of-discussion |
# Community needs, individual needs, and a model of adult development
Sarah Constantin [wrote](/lw/o5z/on_the_importance_of_less_wrong_or_another_single/di0f):
> Specifically, I think that LW declined from its peak by losing its top bloggers to new projects. Eliezer went to do AI research full-time at MIRI, Anna star... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/abBgiquQRDRahNjER/community-needs-individual-needs-and-a-model-of-adult |
# Extortion and trade negotiations
To illustrate an old point - that it's hard to [distinguish between extortion and trade negotiations](/lw/hz9/countess_and_baron_attempt_to_define_blackmail/) \- here's a schematic diagram of extortion, alternating actions by player B (blackmailer/extorter//blue) and V (victim//viole... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RjbTi6ETSo66ygfEY/extortion-and-trade-negotiations |
# Guilt vs Shame, Pride vs Joy?
\[Epistemic status: speculative. My goal here is only to articulate a plausible hypothesis given the data.\]
_The Moral Economy_, which I mentioned in my [post about my recent reading list](/r/discussion/lw/oad/stress_response_growth_mindset_and_nonviolent/#comments), talks quite a bit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AnYzP8RB4uz3S4GvH/guilt-vs-shame-pride-vs-joy |
# How does personality vary across US cities?
In 2007, psychology researchers [Michal Kosinski](http://www.michalkosinski.com/) and [David Stillwell](http://www.davidstillwell.co.uk/) released a personality testing app on Facebook app called [myPersonality](http://mypersonality.org/wiki/doku.php). The app ended up bei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/peNWNSGhuQNvFPBev/how-does-personality-vary-across-us-cities |
# Improve comments by tagging claims
I used to think that comments didn’t matter. I was wrong. This is important because [communities of discourse](/r/discussion/lw/oa0/canons_what_are_they_good_for/) are an important source of knowledge. I’ll explain why I changed my mind, and then propose a simple mechanism for impr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q94JNpMxbwBJHaigi/improve-comments-by-tagging-claims |
# "Flinching away from truth” is often about *protecting* the epistemology
Related to: [Leave a line of retreat](/lw/o4/leave_a_line_of_retreat/); [Categorizing has consequences](/lw/nx/categorizing_has_consequences/).
There’s a story I like, about this little kid who wants to be a writer. So she writes a story and s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EEv9JeuY5xfuDDSgF/flinching-away-from-truth-is-often-about-protecting-the |
# A quick note on weirdness points and Solstices [And also random other Solstice discussion]
Common knowledge is important. So I wanted to note:
Every year on Solstice feedback forms, I get concerns about songs like "[The X days of X-Risk](https://humanistculture.bandcamp.com/track/the-x-days-of-x-risk)" or "[Whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HWMoS3sBc2LKyRtZ3/a-quick-note-on-weirdness-points-and-solstices-and-also |
# Bioelectronic medicine: a very brief overview
Drugs that affect the nervous system get administered systemically. It's easy to imagine that we could do much more if we could stimulate one nerve at a time, and in patterns designed to have particular effects on the body.
"Neural coding" can detect the nerve impulses... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5fsZSZqoXMSgcHCLs/bioelectronic-medicine-a-very-brief-overview |
# Custom games that involve skills related to rationality
There are some custom games created by me and some other members of Moscow LW community. These games involve skills related to rationality, like fallacy detection, or inductive rule guessing with trying to falsify the hypothesis. We often play these games on ou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cTjtA9TW4sDr7f6Sz/custom-games-that-involve-skills-related-to-rationality |
# Triaging mental phenomena or: leveling up the stack trace skill
Related: [The 5-Second Level](/lw/5kz/the_5second_level/); [Attention control is critical for increasing/altering motivation](/lw/blr/attention_control_is_critical_for/)
_Epistemic Status: sharing a hypothesis that's slowly been coalescing since a disc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TEtaajgyafCRrSeax/triaging-mental-phenomena-or-leveling-up-the-stack-trace |
# The challenge of writing Utopia
_The story itself has been posted [here](/r/discussion/lw/od6/the_adventure_a_new_utopia_story/)._
Tomorrow, to celebrate a certain well-known [event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton_in_popular_culture#Newtonmas), I'll be posting another story of a Utopia. Unlike the [prev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdQLAncGvXHuaGtbY/the-challenge-of-writing-utopia |
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