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# Expected Error, or how wrong you expect to be
Expected value commonly refers to the mean of a distribution that represents the expectations of a future event. It’s much [more specific](http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/904343/what-is-the-difference-between-average-and-expected-value) than “mathematical mean”. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rgyjLwxvgQQ3BMZCN/expected-error-or-how-wrong-you-expect-to-be |
# Wikipedia usage survey results
Contents
--------
* [Summary](#summary)
* [Surveys](#surveys)
* [First SurveyMonkey survey (S1)](#first-surveymonkey-survey-s1)
* [Second SurveyMonkey survey (S2)](#second-surveymonkey-survey-s2)
* [Google Surveys survey (GS)](#google-surveys-survey-gs)
* [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dKuXzkT6dS8JY8Ryq/wikipedia-usage-survey-results |
# Empirically assess your time use
Original post on my blog: [http://bearlamp.com.au/empirically-assess-your-time-use/](http://bearlamp.com.au/empirically-assess-your-time-use/)
168 hours
=========
You and me both buddy. We both have equal access to our 168 hours. We have different demands on our hours like the ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/55W4eY9c833NNL62n/empirically-assess-your-time-use |
# Exploration-Exploitation problems
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/exploration-exploitation-problems/](http://bearlamp.com.au/exploration-exploitation-problems/)
I have been working on the assumption that [exploration-exploitation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-armed_bandit) knowledge was just common. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oP36hN6ty25sXum3s/exploration-exploitation-problems |
# A different argument against Universal Basic Income
I grew up in socialist East Germany. Like most of my fellow citizens, I was not permitted to leave the country. But there was an important exception: People could leave after retirement. Why? Because that meant their forfeited their retirement benefits. Once you to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGPvC2fCQrLi79ZLk/a-different-argument-against-universal-basic-income |
# Prediction-based medicine (PBM)
We need a new paradigm for doing medicine. I make the case by first speaking about the problems of our current paradigm of evidence-based medicine.
The status quo of ev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TYA2nsPypoNaLsczd/prediction-based-medicine-pbm |
# Pursuing convergent instrumental subgoals on the user's behalf doesn't always require good priors
I recommend reading [Scalable AI control](https://medium.com/ai-control/scalable-ai-control-7db2436feee7#.1riohnubu) before reading this post.
In particular, in the "Hard values, easy values" section of this post, Pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703752da/pursuing-convergent-instrumental-subgoals-on-the-user-s-behalf-doesn-t-always-require-good-priors |
# A review of cryonics/brain preservation in 2016
_Relevance to Less Wrong_: Whether you think it is for better or worse, users on LW [are about 50,000x more likely to be signed up for cryonics than the average person](http://www.brainpreservation.org/interest-in-cryonics-from-the-less-wrong-2016-survey/).
_Disclaim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z5EWwaLv4foHu7E8Y/a-review-of-cryonics-brain-preservation-in-2016 |
# Act into Fear and Abandon all Hope
The first time I received truly life-changing advice was when a friend pointed me in the direction of [David Allen’s Getting Things Done](http://gettingthingsdone.com/). I was in the middle of getting my graduate degree, struggling to keep up with the demands of school, teaching, f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zh9vFCaZJFFefzxKh/act-into-fear-and-abandon-all-hope |
# Double Crux — A Strategy for Mutual Understanding
**Preamble**
Double crux is one of CFAR's newer concepts, and one that's forced a re-examination and refactoring of a lot of our curriculum (in the same way that the introduction of TAPs and Inner Simulator did previously). It rapidly became a part of our organizati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-mutual-understanding |
# Buckets and memetic immune disorders
AnnaSalamon's [recent post](/lw/o2k/flinching_away_from_truth_is_often_about) on "flinching" and "buckets" nicely complements PhilGoetz's 2009 post [Reason as memetic immune disorder](/lw/18b/reason_as_memetic_immune_disorder/). (I'll be assuming that readers have read Anna's pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAX5j3nJLjch8fbua/buckets-and-memetic-immune-disorders |
# The time you have
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/the-time-you-have/](http://bearlamp.com.au/the-time-you-have/)
* * *
Part 1: [Exploration-Exploitation](http://bearlamp.com.au/exploration-exploitation-problems/)
Part 2: [Bargaining Trade-offs to your brain.](http://bearlamp.com.au/bargaining-trade-offs-in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HdGDocx6a24muyJ6G/the-time-you-have |
# Welcome to LessWrong (10th Thread, January 2017) (Thread A)
**(Thread B for January is [here](/r/discussion/lw/ogw/welcome_to_less_wrong_11th_thread_january_2017/), created as a duplicate by accident)**
Hi, do you read the LessWrong website, but haven't commented yet (or not very much)? Are you a bit scared of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xg9r7LPunDEwv3Lk8/welcome-to-lesswrong-10th-thread-january-2017-thread-a |
# How to talk rationally about cults
In 1978, several hundred people in Jonestown drank poison and died, because their leader told them to. Not everyone who died there was a volunteer; some members of the group objected, and they were killed first by the more dedicated members, who killed themselves later. Also, many ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tFo8maKd6Tp7MyXHF/how-to-talk-rationally-about-cults |
# Planning the Enemy's Retreat
**Related:** [Leave a Line of Retreat](/lw/o4/leave_a_line_of_retreat/)
When I was smaller, I was sitting at home watching [The Mummy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mummy_(1999_film)), with my mother, ironically enough. There's a character by the name of Bernard Burns, and you only ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D9DmjemEzevMezMdm/planning-the-enemy-s-retreat |
# Project Hufflepuff
(This is a crossposted FB post, so it might read a bit weird)
My goal this year (in particular, my main focus once I arrive in the Bay, but also my focus in NY and online in the meanwhile), is to join and champion the growing cause of people trying to fix some systemic problems in EA and Rational... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iK7be8zWYb6enXLZz/project-hufflepuff |
# Thoughts on "Operation Make Less Wrong the single conversational locus", Month 1
About a month ago, Anna posted about the [Importance of Less Wrong or Another Single Conversational Locus](/lw/o5z/on_the_importance_of_less_wrong_or_another_single/), followed shortly by Sarah Constantin's [http://lesswrong.com/lw/o62/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/graQzvZq7wnmDERdY/thoughts-on-operation-make-less-wrong-the-single |
# Infinite Summations: A Rationality Litmus Test
You may have seen that [Numberphile](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-I6XTVZXww) video that circulated the social media world a few years ago. It showed the 'astounding' mathematical result:
1+2+3+4+5+… = -1/12
(quote: "the answer to this sum is, remarkably, minus a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zxQ3pqxC3r7gmQWuw/infinite-summations-a-rationality-litmus-test |
# 0.999...=1: Another Rationality Litmus Test
People seemed to like my [post](/r/discussion/lw/oht/infinite_summations_a_rationality_litmus_test/) from yesterday about infinite summations and how to rationally react to a mathematical argument you're not equipped to validate, so here's another in the same vein that hig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bcq3Qw9mqGre4tcNG/0-999-1-another-rationality-litmus-test |
# In Defense of the Obvious
_\[Cross-posed from [blog](https://mindlevelup.wordpress.com/2016/11/14/in-defense-of-the-obvious/)\]_
My brain does this thing where it shuts off when I experience some warning signs. A lot of these have to do with my identity or personal beliefs, which go off when I believe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/64xd9fATvZRi4qJiQ/in-defense-of-the-obvious |
# Did EDT get it right all along? Introducing yet another medical Newcomb problem
One of the main arguments given against [Evidential Decision Theory](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Evidential_Decision_Theory) (EDT) is that it would “one-box” in [medical Newcomb problems](/lw/gu1/decision_theory_faq/#medical-newcomb-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iqpizeN4hkbTjkugo/did-edt-get-it-right-all-along-introducing-yet-another |
# Value Journaling
I like to link to the [Minding Our Way sequence on overcoming guilt](http://mindingourway.com/guilt/) a lot, but I've recently gone and added "information hazard" warnings to several of my posts which link there. Someone pointed out to me that the sequence destroys some people's current (guilt-based... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/74yvnbKWcF2iRc8pv/value-journaling |
# A majority coalition can lose a symmetric zero-sum game
Just a neat little result I found when thinking about Jessica's [recent post](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1224).
For n players, let a~i~ be the action of player i and s~i~(a~1~,a~2~,...a~n~) the reward of player i as a function of the actions of all p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tSSNqYZZPAFavBQjg/a-majority-coalition-can-lose-a-symmetric-zero-sum-game |
# 80,000 Hours: EA and Highly Political Causes
_[this post is now crossposted to the EA forum](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/16m/80000_hours_ea_and_highly_political_causes/)_
[80,000 hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a well known Effective Altruism organisation which does "in-depth research alongside academic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uC3BmqwkT8vNRd3cj/80-000-hours-ea-and-highly-political-causes |
# 2017: An Actual Plan to Actually Improve
\[_Epistemic status: mostly confident, but being this intentional is experimental\]_
This year, I'm focusing on two traits: resilience and conscientiousness. I think these (or the fact that I lack them) are my biggest barriers to success. Also: identifying them as goals fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5N5Npyd5udCtRwph/2017-an-actual-plan-to-actually-improve |
# On motivations for MIRI's highly reliable agent design research
(this post came out of a conversation between me and Owen Cotton-Barratt, plus a follow-up conversation with Nate)
I want to clarify my understanding of some of the motivations of MIRI's highly reliable agent design (HRAD) research (e.g. logical unce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375321/on-motivations-for-miri-s-highly-reliable-agent-design-research |
# My current take on the Paul-MIRI disagreement on alignability of messy AI
Paul Christiano and "MIRI" have disagreed on an important research question for a long
time: should we focus research on aligning "messy" AGI (e.g. one found through
gradient descent or brute force search) with human values, or on developi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703752c6/my-current-take-on-the-paul-miri-disagreement-on-alignability-of-messy-ai |
# How often do you check this forum?
I'm interested from hearing from everyone who reads this.
Who is checking LW's Discussion area and how often?
1\. When you check, how much voting or commenting do you do compared to reading?
2\. Do bother clicking through to links?
3\. Do you check using a desktop or a smart ph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y3eQvXkMCYr8xLo6j/how-often-do-you-check-this-forum |
# Civil resistance and the 3.5% rule
Interesting, haven't seen anything data-driven like this before...
Civil resistance and the 3.5% rule.
https://rationalinsurgent.com/2013/11/04/my-talk-at-tedxboulder-civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule/
"no campaigns failed once they’d achieved the active and sustained participat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p8zcKwAqvnxjwwwe8/civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule |
# European Community Weekend 2017
We are excited to announce this year's European LessWrong Community Weekend. For the fourth time, rationalists from all over Europe (and some from outside Europe) are **gathering in Berlin** to socialize, have fun, exchange knowledge and skills, and have interesting discussions.
The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/39TPTch2HGCJQTNcb/european-community-weekend-2017 |
# Planning 101: Debiasing and Research
Planning 101: Techniques and Research
=====================================
###
_<Cross-posed from [my blog](https://mindlevelup.wordpress.com/planning-101/)>_
_\[Epistemic status: Relatively strong. There are numerous studies showing that predictions often become miscalibrat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ASHTGrrEDtBhC6CFh/planning-101-debiasing-and-research |
# Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
In Nature, there's been a [recent publication](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v541/n7638/full/nature21054.html) arguing that the best way of gauging the truth of a question is to get people to report their views on the truth of the matter, and their estimate of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A5Gs6Rijuohj3ENw7/why-is-the-surprisingly-popular-answer-correct |
# True understanding comes from passing exams
_[Crossposted](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1261) at the Intelligent Agent Forum_
I'll try to clarify what I was doing with the [AI truth setup](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1249) in a previous post. First I'll explain the nature of the challenge, and then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZaMNgFH4gqbc5R2Yf/true-understanding-comes-from-passing-exams |
# Albion’s Seed, Genotyped
Last year [I reviewed *Albion’s Seed*](http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/27/book-review-albions-seed/), historian David Fischer’s work on the four great English migrations to America (and JayMan continues the story in his series on [American Nations](https://jaymans.wordpress.com/american-na... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BpYDqQNZ2NZNCqPp6/albion-s-seed-genotyped |
# The Social Substrate
_This post originally appeared on [The Gears To Ascension](https://the-gears-to-ascension.herokuapp.com/the-social-substrate/)_
### ABSTRACT
I present generative modeling of minds as a hypothesis for the complexities of social dynamics, and build a case for it out of pieces. My hope is that th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WE4nuL4fvH9Hs5bGf/the-social-substrate |
# Stupidity as a mental illness
It's great to make people more aware of bad mental habits and encourage better ones, as many people have done on LessWrong. The way we deal with weak thinking is, however, like how people dealt with depression before the development of effective anti-depressants:
* Clinical depressi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vFfGMFDnrv2egiYWj/stupidity-as-a-mental-illness |
# Considerations On Cost Disease
**I.**
Tyler Cowen [writes about cost disease](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-18/this-economic-phenomenon-is-making-government-sick). I’d previously heard the term used to refer only to a specific theory of why costs are increasing, involving labor becoming more effic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BBQ5HEnL3ShefQxEj/considerations-on-cost-disease |
# Get Rich Slowly
On the last day of my MBA’s finance class, [the professor](http://www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/faculty/directory/finance/William-Weld) admitted that very few us are ever going to use the formula for return-on-debt in our lives. Instead, for that class he gave us a single sheet of paper titled “Bill’s si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/if5LBwk8vTmwxLmpG/get-rich-slowly |
# What are you surprised people don't just buy?
Two of the main resources people have are time and money. The world offers many opportunities to trade one for the other, at widely varying rates.
I've often heard people recommend trading money for time in the abstract, but this advice is rarely accompanied by specifi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qyoECh7MNx6HuaX4R/what-are-you-surprised-people-don-t-just-buy |
# Allegory On AI Risk, Game Theory, and Mithril
“Thorin, I can’t accept your generous job offer because, honestly, I think that your company might destroy Middle Earth.”
“Bifur, I can tell that you’re one of those “the Balrog is real, evil, and near” folks who thinks that in the next few decades Mithril miners will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fTrEqNnYYSNXNSRcg/allegory-on-ai-risk-game-theory-and-mithril |
# Increasing GDP is not growth
I just saw another comment implying that immigration was good because it increased GDP. Over the years, I've seen many similar comments in the LW / transhumanist / etc bubble claiming that increasing a country's population is good because it increases its GDP. These are generally used ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQk9pNk78gFg7hMeK/increasing-gdp-is-not-growth |
# Highlights From The Comments On Cost Disease
I got many good responses to my [Considerations On Cost Disease](http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/) post, both in the comments and elsewhere. A lot of people thought the explanation was obvious; unfortunately, they all disagreed on what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ofL22R6KZsfrvdmwg/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease |
# The Semiotic Fallacy
_Acknowledgement: This idea is essentially the same as something mentioned in a podcast where [Julia Galef interviews Jason Brennan](http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/rs-176-jason-brennan-on-against-democracy.html)._
You are in a prison. You don't really know how to fight and you don't ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aqnjycCBHhqtQpNKg/the-semiotic-fallacy |
# Prediction Based Robust Cooperation
In this post, We present a new approach to robust cooperation, as an alternative to the "modal combat" framework. This post is very hand-waivey. If someone would like to work on making it better, let me know.
***
Over the last year or so, MIRI's agent foundations research ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037536c/prediction-based-robust-cooperation |
# Maximally efficient agents will probably have an anti-daemon immune system
(the ideas in this post came out of a conversation with Scott, Critch, Ryan, and Tsvi, plus a separate conversation with Paul)
Consider the problem of [optimization daemons](https://arbital.com/p/daemons/). I argued [previously](https://a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375367/maximally-efficient-agents-will-probably-have-an-anti-daemon-immune-system |
# Nearest unblocked strategy versus learning patches
The [nearest unblocked strategy](https://arbital.com/p/nearest_unblocked/) problem (NUS) is the idea that if you program a restriction or a patch into an AI, then the AI will often be motivated to pick a strategy that is as close as possible to the banned strategy, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037536d/nearest-unblocked-strategy-versus-learning-patches |
# Nearest unblocked strategy versus learning patches
_[Crossposted](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1296) at Intelligent Agents Forum._
The [nearest unblocked strategy](https://arbital.com/p/nearest_unblocked/) problem (NUS) is the idea that if you program a restriction or a patch into an AI, then the AI will of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q6FPpGxmGaxbSBHSt/nearest-unblocked-strategy-versus-learning-patches |
# Concrete Takeaways Post-CFAR
Concrete Takeaways:
\[So I recently volunteered at a CFAR workshop. This is part five of a five-part series on how I changed my mind. It's split into 3 sections: TAPs, Heuristics, and Concepts. They get progressively more abstract. It's also quite long at around 3,000 words, so feel fre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6xTo83TwKHSQo8igo/concrete-takeaways-post-cfar |
# Modal Combat for games other than the prisoner's dilemma
# Modal Combat for arbitrary games
Modal combat has, as far as I know, only been studied in the context
of the prisoner's dilemma, but it can also be used for other games.
The definition of modal agent for an arbitrary game will be similar
to the definit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375375/modal-combat-for-games-other-than-the-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# A Modern Myth
**1\. Eris**
A middle-aged man, James, had come on stage believing it was an audition for *American Idol*. It wasn’t. Out ran his ex-lover, Terri. “You said you loved me!” she said. “And then when I got pregnant, you disappeared! Twenty years, and you never even sent me a letter!”
The crowd booed.
A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kSiT2XjfTnDHKx44W/a-modern-myth |
# CFAR Workshop Review: February 2017
_\[A somewhat extensive review of a recent CFAR workshop, with recommendations at the end for those interested in attending one.\]_
I recently mentored at a CFAR workshop, and this is a review of the actual experience. In broad strokes, this review will cover the physical experie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eMt8xRhS7ZaRjGDQp/cfar-workshop-review-february-2017 |
# Phenomenological Complexity Classes
This is an introduction to phenomenological complexity classes. The formulation is my own, but is heavily informed by existing results in developmental psychology and complexity theory and parallels [phenomenological complexity theory](http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ujEiaXwfQAirysv2g/phenomenological-complexity-classes |
# 5 Project Hufflepuff Suggestions for the Rationality Community
_<cross-posed on [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/owenshen24/posts/1251100144945591?notif_t=like¬if_id=1488594108842611)>_
In the spirit of [Project Hufflepuff,](/r/discussion/lw/ohg/project_hufflepuff/) I’m listing out some ideas for things I wou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2kZS3uQLaoeypQ4mL/5-project-hufflepuff-suggestions-for-the-rationality |
# Generalizing Foundations of Decision Theory
This post is more about articulating motivations than about presenting anything new, but I think readers may learn something about the foundations of classical (evidential) decision theory as they stand.
## The Project
Most people interested in decision theory know a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375373/generalizing-foundations-of-decision-theory |
# Antidepressant Pharmacogenomics: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
*\[Epistemic status: very uncertain. Not to be taken as medical advice. Talk to your doctor before deciding whether or not to get any tests.\]*
**I.**
There are many antidepressants in common use. With a few exceptions, none are globally better tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oHsMeXehPy4jHcmwy/antidepressant-pharmacogenomics-much-more-than-you-wanted-to |
# Sufficiently sincere confirmation bias is indistinguishable from science
Some theater people at NYU people wanted to demonstrate how gender stereotypes affected the 2016 US presidential election. So they decided to put on a [theatrical performance](https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-cl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sZG6P6bBRAt6mg2P4/sufficiently-sincere-confirmation-bias-is-indistinguishable |
# In support of Yak Shaving
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/in-support-of-yak-shaving/]( http://bearlamp.com.au/in-support-of-yak-shaving/)
Part 2: [http://bearlamp.com.au/yak-shaving-2/]( http://bearlamp.com.au/yak-shaving-2/)
* * *
Yak shaving is heralded as pretty much "the devil" of trying to get thing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbiZc7KM2KEyCAaCP/in-support-of-yak-shaving |
# I Want To Live In A Baugruppe
Rationalists like to live in group houses. We are also as a subculture moving more and more into a child-having phase of our lives. These things don't cooperate super well - I live in a four bedroom house because we like having roommates and guests, but if we have three kids and don't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4esQ684vtR9zcjHgW/i-want-to-live-in-a-baugruppe |
# [REPOST] The Demiurge’s Older Brother
*\[This is a repost of a story which I wrote about five years ago and which was hosted on my old website until it went down.\]*
**2,302,554,979 BC
Galactic Core**
9-tsiak awoke over endless crawling milliseconds, its power waxing as more and more processors came online and s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wh8HAK6LR5CAoPCCC/repost-the-demiurge-s-older-brother |
# Musical setting of the Litany of Tarski
About a year ago, I made a setting of the [Litany of Tarski](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Litany_of_Tarski) for four-part _a cappella_ (i.e. unaccompanied) chorus.
More recently, in the process of experimenting with [MuseScore](https://musescore.org/) for potential use in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nyphnTpAAroCLX9By/musical-setting-of-the-litany-of-tarski |
# Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons
*\[Content note: kind of talking around Trump supporters and similar groups as if they’re not there.\]*
**I.**
Tim Harford writes [The Problem With Facts](http://timharford.com/2017/03/the-problem-with-facts/), which uses Brexit and Trump as jumping-off points to argue that peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qajfiXo5qRThZQG7s/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons |
# LW UI issue
Not really sure where else I might post this, but there seems to be a UI issue on the site. When I hit the homepage of lesswrong.com while logged in I no longer see the user sidebar or the header links for Main and Discussion. This is kind of annoying because I have to click into an article first to get ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ps7xbrpcZyRSZW5pp/lw-ui-issue |
# If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
[Pick one](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiA-PC5hfDSAhUIy2MKHTp4DmMQyCkIHTAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOnxkfLe4G74&usg=AFQjCNHlehu1e5EgLu-2vwEhTmjFcCpL9g&sig2=bEL8FF_oemsRwIZzgf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEzMa34aLMfWHz7hi/if-you-choose-not-to-decide-you-still-have-made-a-choice |
# IQ and Magnus Carlsen, Leo Messi and the Decathlon
\[_Epistemic Status: I suspect that this is at least partially wrong. But I don’t know why yet, and so I figured I’d write it up and let people tell me_. _First post on Less Wrong, for what that’s worth._\]
**First thesis:** IQ is more akin to a composite measure o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tZkYL9P4dKpaCzpn8/iq-and-magnus-carlsen-leo-messi-and-the-decathlon |
# What's up with Arbital?
This post is for all the people who have been following Arbital's progress since 2015 via whispers, rumors, and clairvoyant divination. That is to say: we didn't do a very good job of communicating on our part. I hope this posts corrects some of that.
The top question on your mind is probabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqikgu92L7oQFNji4/what-s-up-with-arbital |
# Avoiding Emotional Dominance Spirals
Follow Up to: [Dominance, care, and social touch](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/dominance-care-social-touch/)
One thing Ben said in his latest post especially resonated with me, and I wanted to offer some expanded thoughts on it:
> Sometimes, when I feel let down because someo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TZzdSwhADqdG5bGuz/avoiding-emotional-dominance-spirals |
# Against responsibility
I am surrounded by well-meaning people trying to take responsibility for the future of the universe. I think that this attitude – prominent among Effective Altruists – is causing great harm. I noticed this as part of a broader change in outlook, which I've been trying to describe on this blog ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TogRAPYrFATZ8XYwA/against-responsibility |
# G.K. Chesterton On AI Risk
*\[An SSC reader working at an Oxford library stumbled across a previously undiscovered manuscript of G.K. Chesterton’s, expressing his thoughts on AI, x-risk, and superintelligence. She was kind enough to send me a copy, which I have faithfully transcribed\]*
![](http://slatestarcodex.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/muhtBvbh4etjkKXd9/g-k-chesterton-on-ai-risk |
# Project Hufflepuff: Planting the Flag
> _"Clever kids in Ravenclaw, evil kids in Slytherin, wannabe heroes in Gryffindor, and everyone who does the actual work in Hufflepuff.”_
> _\- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, Chapter 9_
> _“It is a common misconception that the best rationalists are Sorted into ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbdP8hD2AcKcdSsgF/project-hufflepuff-planting-the-flag |
# OpenAI makes humanity less safe
If there's anything we can do now about the risks of superintelligent AI, then OpenAI makes humanity less safe.
Once upon a time, some good people were worried about the possibility that humanity would figure out how to create a superintelligent AI before they figured out how to tell... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nqn2tkAHbejXTDKuW/openai-makes-humanity-less-safe |
# Responses to Tyler Cowen on Rationality
In his [recent podcast with Ezra Klein](http://www.vox.com/2017/3/30/15122162/tyler-cowen-ezra-klein-interview-podcast) (recommended), Ezra asked Tyler his views on many things. One of them was the rationality community, and he [put that response on Marginal Revolution as its ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsSmscB5CuSQX9arn/responses-to-tyler-cowen-on-rationality |
# Brief update on the consequences of my "Two arguments for not thinking about ethics" (2014) article
In March 2014, I posted on LessWrong an article called "[Two arguments for not thinking about ethics (too much)](/lw/jyl/two_arguments_for_not_thinking_about_ethics_too/)", which started out with:
> I used to spend a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9jx5XB4zEi7skHtv4/brief-update-on-the-consequences-of-my-two-arguments-for-not |
# What conservatives and environmentalists agree on
Today we had a sudden cold snap here in western Pennsylvania, with the temperature dropping 30 degrees F. I was walking through a white field that had been green yesterday, looking at daffodils poking up through the snow and feeling irritated that they'd probably di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtKNbZAb4aufSoYh9/what-conservatives-and-environmentalists-agree-on |
# What exactly is the "Rationality Community?"
*\[This is the second post in the* [*Project Hufflepuff sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/oyZGWX9WkgWzEDt6M)*, which I no longer quite endorse in its original form. But this post is particularly standalone\]*
I used to use the phrase "Rationality Community" to mean ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s8yvtCbbZW2S4WnhE/what-exactly-is-the-rationality-community |
# Net Utility and Planetary Biocide
I've started listening to the audiobook of Peter Singer's _Ethics in the Real World_, which is both highly recommended and very unsettling. The essays on non-human animals, for example, made me realize for the first time that it may well be possible that the net utility on Earth ove... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GxYGQkpiE5WokY67P/net-utility-and-planetary-biocide |
# You’re Good Enough, You’re Smart Enough, and People Would Like You
Epistemic Status: Playing the odds
Originality Status: Very low. These are not unique views and this has been said many times before, so apologies if you’ve seen it many times before, but the message never gets through, so we keep trying.
The ratio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cMCvQ8GfsjnNgJr3j/you-re-good-enough-you-re-smart-enough-and-people-would-like |
# Akrasia Tactics Review 3: The Return of the Akrasia
About three and a half years ago, polutropon ran an [akrasia tactics review](/lw/i0e/akrasia_tactics_review_2_the_akrasia_strikes_back/), following [the one orthonormal ran](/lw/1sm/akrasia_tactics_review/) three and a half years prior to _that_: an open-ended surv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SXLiEiYz4b6mLWfrQ/akrasia-tactics-review-3-the-return-of-the-akrasia |
# LessWrong analytics (February 2009 to January 2017)
Table of contents
-----------------
* [Introduction](#introduction)
* [Pageviews and sessions](#pageviews-and-sessions)
* [Top posts](#top-posts)
* [Source code](#source-code)
* [Further reading](#further-reading)
* [Acknowledgments](#acknowledgments)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SWNn53RryQgTzT7NQ/lesswrong-analytics-february-2009-to-january-2017 |
# Straw Hufflepuffs and Lone Heroes
_I was hoping the next Project Hufflepuff post would involve more "explain concretely what I think we should do", but as it turns out I'm still hashing out some thoughts about that. In the meanwhile, this is the post I actually have ready to go, which is as good as any to post for n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XQWLq4DmrnKj9DPYC/straw-hufflepuffs-and-lone-heroes |
# Two Major Obstacles for Logical Inductor Decision Theory
In this post, I describe two major obstacles for logical inductor decision theory: **untaken actions are not observable** and **no updatelessness for computations**. I will concretely describe both of these problems in a logical inductor framework, but I belie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703753d4/two-major-obstacles-for-logical-inductor-decision-theory |
# An OpenAI board seat is surprisingly expensive
The Open Philanthropy Project [recently bought](http://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support) a seat on the board of the billion-dollar nonprofit AI research organization OpenAI f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2z5vrsu7BoiWckLby/an-openai-board-seat-is-surprisingly-expensive |
# Effective altruism is self-recommending
A parent I know reports (some details anonymized):
> Recently we bought my 3-year-old daughter a "behavior chart," in which she can earn stickers for achievements like not throwing tantrums, eating fruits and vegetables, and going to sleep on time. We successfully impressed o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kb9HeG2jHy2GehHDY/effective-altruism-is-self-recommending |
# The AI Alignment Problem Has Already Been Solved(?) Once
_Hat tip: [Owen](https://mindlevelup.wordpress.com/) posted about trying to one-man the AI control problem in 1 hour. What the heck, why not? In the worst case, it's a good exercise. But I might actually have come across something useful._
### 第一
I will try ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ldzoxz3BuFL4Ca8pG/the-ai-alignment-problem-has-already-been-solved-once |
# Against Facebook
Leads to: [Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/against-facebook-comparison-to-alternatives-and-call-to-action/), [Help Us Find Your Blog (and others)](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/04/23/help-us-find-your-blog-and-others/)
Not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWiBXSnpusJgCZNWq/against-facebook |
# I Updated the List of Rationalist Blogs on the Wiki
I recently updated the list of rationalist community blogs. The new page is here: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/List\_of\_Blogs
Improvements:
-Tons of (active) blogs have been added
-All dead links have been removed
-Blogs which are currently inactive but som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iPaeg6yvi5HgdaJkc/i-updated-the-list-of-rationalist-blogs-on-the-wiki |
# Actors and scribes, words and deeds
\[Epistemic status: exploratory exercise in naming and concept-formation.\]
Among the kinds of people, are the Actors, and the Scribes. Actors mainly relate to speech as _action_ that has _effects_. Scribes mainly relate to speech as a _structured arrangement of pointers_ that ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2bWqSFgyFxowTKWE/actors-and-scribes-words-and-deeds |
# Background Reading: The Real Hufflepuff Sequence Was The Posts We Made Along The Way
_This is the fourth post of the Project Hufflepuff sequence. Previous posts:_
* _[Introduction](https://www.lesserwrong.com/lw/ouc/project_hufflepuff_planting_the_flag/)_
* _[Who exactly is the Rationality Community?](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Td6ckj85mBXR3z4tE/background-reading-the-real-hufflepuff-sequence-was-the |
# Introducing the Instrumental Rationality Sequence
**What is this project?**
I am going to be writing a new sequence of articles on instrumental rationality. The end goal is to have a compiled ebook of all the essays, so the articles themselves are intended to be chapters in the finalized book. There will also be pi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LyroTDZWhRQPdCe3B/introducing-the-instrumental-rationality-sequence |
# Use and misuse of models: case study
Some time ago, I discovered a post [comparing](https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2013/basic_income_vs_basic_job.html) [basic income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income) and [basic job](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Job_guarantee) ideas. This sought to analyse the costs o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bGims5WHhYygFaXNY/use-and-misuse-of-models-case-study |
# Nate Soares' Replacing Guilt Series compiled in epub Format
Hey everyone,
I really liked Nate Soares' [Replacing Guilt](http://mindingourway.com/guilt/) series, which has had a major positive impact on growing my intrinsic motivation.
Recently, I compiled all the posts into an ePUB for my own reading, and I though... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rFrefJgPvYkdtG7Pt/nate-soares-replacing-guilt-series-compiled-in-epub-format |
# There is No Akrasia
I don’t think akrasia exists.
This is a fairly strong claim. I’m also not going to try and argue it.
What I’m really here to argue are the two weaker claims that:
a) Akrasia is often treated as a “thing” by people in the rationality community, and this can lead to problems, even though... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9ojpcBsYuJFNKgp4E/there-is-no-akrasia |
# Bad intent is a disposition, not a feeling
It’s common to think that someone else is arguing in bad faith. In a recent blog post, Nate Soares [claims](http://mindingourway.com/assuming-positive-intent/) that this intuition is both wrong and harmful:
> I believe that the ability to expect that conversation partners ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JDLKjYKDb5ohTAY45/bad-intent-is-a-disposition-not-a-feeling |
# Experiments, iterations and the scientific method
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/experiments-iterations-and-the-scientific-method](http://bearlamp.com.au/experiments-iterations-and-the-scientific-method)
* * *
Today, an ordinary day. I woke up at 6am. It was still dark out. I did a quick self-check.
> ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qG95G2uTEmFDf6YF4/experiments-iterations-and-the-scientific-method |
# Thoughts on civilization collapse
_Epistemic status: an idea I believe moderately strongly, based on extensive reading but not rigorous analysis._
We may have a dramatically wrong idea of civilization collapse, mainly inspired by movies that obsess over dramatic tales of individual heroism.
### Traditional view:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7yoRuF5v2ts2ujTsv/thoughts-on-civilization-collapse |
# Soft Skills for Running Meetups for Beginners
Having a vibrant, local Less Wrong or EA community is really valuable, but at least in my experience, it tends to end up falling to the same couple people, and if one of or all of those people get burned out or get interested in another project, the meetup can fall apart... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uwAeE4aXpBoj9iLY2/soft-skills-for-running-meetups-for-beginners |
# Generalizing Foundations of Decision Theory II
As promised in the [previous post](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1302), I develop my formalism for justifying as many of the decision-theoretic axioms as possible with generalized dutch-book arguments. (I'll use the term "generalized dutch-book" to refer to argum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037539a/generalizing-foundations-of-decision-theory-ii |
# That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
**[That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.03394)**
Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong, Milan M. Cirkovic
If a civilization wants to m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cMRkHEABHRwRckdxA/that-is-not-dead-which-can-eternal-lie-the-aestivation |
# Gears in understanding
Some (literal, physical) roadmaps are more useful than others. Sometimes this is because of how well the [map corresponds to the territory](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/The_map_is_not_the_territory), but sometimes it's because of features of the map that are irrespective of the territory. E... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B7P97C27rvHPz3s9B/gears-in-understanding |
# SlateStarCodex Meetups Everywhere: Analysis
The first round of [SlateStarCodex meetups](http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/04/03/ssc-meetups-everywhere-times-and-places/) took place from April 4th through May 20th, 2017 in 65 cities, in 16 countries around the world. Of the 69 cities originally listed as having 10 or mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/StgQjCQfHu5vfJXqg/slatestarcodex-meetups-everywhere-analysis |
# A Month's Worth of Rational Posts - Feedback on my Rationality Feed.
For the last two months I have been publishing a feed of rationalist articles. Oriignally the feed was only published on the SSC discord channel [SSC Discord](https://discord.gg/gpaTCxh) (Be charitable, kind and don't treat the place like 4chan). F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RvJAomSTY6fXhdyD6/a-month-s-worth-of-rational-posts-feedback-on-my-rationality |
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