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# Alignment Newsletter #49
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WXhTxsphZtbQvp4Qt/alignment-newsletter-49 |
# What's wrong with these analogies for understanding Informed Oversight and IDA?
In [Can HCH epistemically dominate Ramanujan?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4qY9zEHLa2su4PkQ4/can-hch-epistemically-dominate-ramanujan) Alex Zhu wrote:
>If HCH is ascription universal, then it should be able to epistemically domina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LigbvLH9yKR5Zhd6y/what-s-wrong-with-these-analogies-for-understanding-informed |
# Criticism catalyzes analytical thinking in groups
Brainstorming, a technique long thought to enhance group creativity. Although the research shows little evidence of effectiveness, this technique (Alex Faickney Osborn, 1957) has persisted in practice. More specifically, brainstorming instructions increase the numbe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4X4SmMuGhfPZNGRCF/criticism-catalyzes-analytical-thinking-in-groups |
# What should we expect from GPT-3?
When it will appear? (My guess is 2020).
Will it be created by OpenAI and will it be advertised? (My guess is that it will not be publicly known until 2021, but other companies may create open versions before it.)
How much data will be used for its training and what type of data? ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8mTQz2cy7Be8vAXkB/what-should-we-expect-from-gpt-3 |
# The Main Sources of AI Risk?
There are so many causes or sources of AI risk that it's getting hard to keep them all in mind. I propose we keep a list of the main sources (that we know about), such that we can say that if none of these things happen, then we've mostly eliminated AI risk (as an existential risk) at le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WXvt8bxYnwBYpy9oT/the-main-sources-of-ai-risk |
# Declarative Mathematics
Programmers generally distinguish between “imperative” languages in which you specify _what to do_ (e.g. C) versus “declarative” languages in which you specify _what you want_, and let the computer figure out how to do it (e.g. SQL). Over time, we generally expect programming to become more d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MHL4zzzzuDMjYNX7v/declarative-mathematics |
# Retrospective on a quantitative productivity logging attempt
I have a productivity scale I've used to log productivity data for several years. It's a subjective rating system from 1 to 10, and looks something like
> 1\. can’t do anything, even reading. Worktime 0%.
> 2\. can force myself to read or work, but I can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u4tGBooyzK3SkbB2J/retrospective-on-a-quantitative-productivity-logging-attempt |
# The Game Theory of Blackmail
This blog post is composed as following:
1. Review of Prisoners Dilemma
2. Explanation of Game of Chicken by comparing it to Prisoners Dilemma
3. Blackmail is a Game of Chicken
4. Why we should care about blackmail/Game of Chicken
5. What to do? Iterated Game of Chicken?
Yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wm2rdS3sDY9M5kpWb/the-game-theory-of-blackmail |
# Willing to share some words that changed your beliefs/behavior?
I'm collecting data on powerfully persuasive speech acts; it's part of a dangling thread of curiosity after GPT-2 (a new and fairly powerful text generation algorithm). I'm skeptical of the danger of mind-warping sentences as sometimes presented in fict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ziJCFf9FHt666Jgpm/willing-to-share-some-words-that-changed-your-beliefs |
# 800 scientist call out against statistical significance
LessWrong has [many](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bXuAXCbzw9hsJSuEN/the-control-group-is-out-of-control) [criticisms](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ETe2SZacmLvvr8H9n/how-to-fix-science) [of](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XrxsFR2WLXWzgLEoy/case-study-abu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K68YfQnZKDEsjFYbm/800-scientist-call-out-against-statistical-significance |
# A Tale of Four Moralities
**Author's note**: This is a children's story I wrote a while back, which teaches a very important life lesson that none of us got to learn as kids. That lesson is extremely important, so all the adults here should pay attention too. I'll explain more of the nitty gritty details of the unde... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wtcrocc8tyQFb2FoR/a-tale-of-four-moralities |
# The Politics of Age (the Young vs. the Old)
Few days ago I've read an article in the local newspaper about Switzerland considering to lower the voting age to 16.
The reason I found it interesting was that it was not one of the old tired political discussions supported by the same old tired arguments that you typica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/quJ2MigNEWYQ4n2XY/the-politics-of-age-the-young-vs-the-old |
# Did the recent blackmail discussion change your beliefs?
Various rationalist blogs and Less Wrong have recently posted on and discussed blackmail, and specifically legality and acceptability of such. I found the discussion unsatisfying, and I'm trying to understand why that is, and whether I'm alone in that.
As it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vujEogu38xRdkikdQ/did-the-recent-blackmail-discussion-change-your-beliefs |
# The Amish, and Strategic Norms around Technology
I was reading [Legal Systems Very Different](http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Course_Pages/legal_systems_very_different_12/LegalSystemsDraft.html) [From](http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Course_Pages/legal_systems_very_different_12/LegalSystemsDraft.html) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/36Dhz325MZNq3Cs6B/the-amish-and-strategic-norms-around-technology |
# Subagents, akrasia, and coherence in humans
In [my previous posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ZbmRyDN8TCpBTZSip), I have been building up a model of mind as a collection of subagents with different goals, and no straightforward hierarchy. This then raises the question of how that collection of subagents can exhibit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJwJzeZ6ar2Hr7KAX/subagents-akrasia-and-coherence-in-humans |
# Do you like bullet points?
I think more naturally in bullet points, and I (sometimes) like reading posts that are written in bullet style. ([This](http://bewelltuned.com/) [website](http://bewelltuned.com/) is one of my favorites, and is written entirely in bullets).
(Disclaimer, although I wrote this post in bulle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dEcHid7tZPDNvhL4k/do-you-like-bullet-points |
# What I've Learned From My Parents' Arranged Marriage
When I tell people my parents had an arranged marriage, I get a number of different reactions. Most people have the wrong idea of exactly what that looks like, and those who do have the right idea often wonder if my parents can even understand what dating is like,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w2we8Jay7QGi7eYcQ/what-i-ve-learned-from-my-parents-arranged-marriage |
# "Moral" as a preference label
*Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.*
In my [quest to synthesise human preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qezBTig6p6p5xtL6G/a-theory-of-human-values), I've occasionally been ask... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQzPyBjahycCN24dR/moral-as-a-preference-label |
# [Method] The light side of motivation: positive feedback-loop
I want to share this method I use sometimes to stay focused on my tasks, earn rewards from them, and build up a positive feedback-loop to do more difficult things. It's nothing new and has probably been written about a few times. I have been using it sub... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTWXzQBtWDySipo2J/method-the-light-side-of-motivation-positive-feedback-loop |
# A Concrete Proposal for Adversarial IDA
_Note: This post came out of a conversation with Geoffrey Irving and Buck Shlegeris._
_Epistemic Status: I suspect Paul has already thought of most or all of the ideas presented here, though I nevertheless found the exercise of carefully specifying an IDA implementation helpf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jYvm4mmjvGHcPXtGL/a-concrete-proposal-for-adversarial-ida |
# Unsolved research problems vs. real-world threat models
I've given a lightning talk twice now about "why should we care about adversarial examples?", highlighting the distinction (which ML experts are usually aware of, but media and policy folks often miss) between an unsolved research problem and a real-world threa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6shTnnLdZynmRG9rX/unsolved-research-problems-vs-real-world-threat-models |
# Dependability
I have become very, very interested in developing a skill that I call **Dependability**.
I believe the skill exists on a spectrum, and you can have less or more of it. It’s not a binary where you either have it or you don’t.
I believe this skill can be trained on purpose.
I will briefly describe eac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFdSdHmDXcE8f3BXu/dependability-1 |
# The low cost of human preference incoherence
*Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.*
In aiming for an [adequate synthesis of human preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y2LhX3925RodndwpC/resolving-human-values-c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FgRRY3vSwDLx2Hk46/the-low-cost-of-human-preference-incoherence |
# What are CAIS' boldest near/medium-term predictions?
**Background and questions**
Since Eric Drexler publicly released his “[Comprehensive AI services model](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019-1.1-1.pdf)” (CAIS) there has been a series of analyses on LW, from [rohinm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aRwhGWFkWPJiwnCq/what-are-cais-boldest-near-medium-term-predictions |
# Alignment Newsletter #50
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8NPx9FH2Zbv9gd9rX/alignment-newsletter-50 |
# What would you need to be motivated to answer "hard" LW questions?
_Edit: Significantly rewritten. Original question was more specifically oriented around money-as-a-motivator._
One of the questions (ha) that we are asking ourselves on the LW team is "can the questions feature be bootstrapped into a scalable way of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zEMzFGhRt4jZwyJqt/what-would-you-need-to-be-motivated-to-answer-hard-lw |
# Announcing predictions
Today I unveiled `predictions`, a command-line program to score predictions you’ve written down in a YAML file. In my estimation, the program and its supporting documentation is alpha quality. You’ll need to build it yourself and the documentation isn’t all there and well-organized yet.
If yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ApJiqEotNK8bRhFPi/announcing-predictions |
# Parfit's Escape (Filk)
_To the tune of "Escape" (The Piña Colada Song), with apologies to Rupert Holmes._
I was lost in the desert, hopelessly dying of thirst
And I thought to myself, this can't get any worse
I heard the roar of an engine, surely it was my hearse
But then a tall shadow cooled me, it spoke and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wT9Ha4uNchdDoWTGg/parfit-s-escape-filk |
# Please use real names, especially for Alignment Forum?
As the number of AI alignment researchers increases over time, it's getting hard for me to keep track of everyone's names. (I'm probably worse than average in this regard.) It seems the fact that some people don't use their real names as their LW/AF usernames ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEHg5T9tNbJYTdZwb/please-use-real-names-especially-for-alignment-forum |
# Models of preferences in distant situations
*Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.*
For **X**, consider three different [partial preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiB3myyeEhFRgmKPL/partial-preferences-and-mod... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WAmpz8Z4FZ4FbCNtR/models-of-preferences-in-distant-situations |
# Being wrong in ethics
* "I ache for the day when I am in heaven singing the praise of God".
That's a preference that many religious believers have. Not being religious myself, I don't have it, and even find it factually wrong - but how can a preference be wrong?
Here's a preference I do have:
* "I ache for a wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/am5ubSoSe6Hf5tnTF/being-wrong-in-ethics |
# Relative exchange rate between preferences
*Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.*
In my [initial post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y2LhX3925RodndwpC/resolving-human-values-completely-and-adequately) on synthesising... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NS3Kk9WJBnEauzgCr/relative-exchange-rate-between-preferences |
# Parable of the flooding mountain range
A mountaineer is hiking in a mountain range. There is a thick fog so he cannot see beyond a few meters.
It is raining heavily and so the mountain range is being flooded, the mountaineer has to climb to a high place so he won’t get washed away.
He will climb towards the highes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8u6pheTba6zbs9YAZ/parable-of-the-flooding-mountain-range |
# Review of Q&A [LW2.0 internal document]
_Context_
---------
_1\. This is the first in a series of internal LessWrong 2.0 team documents we are sharing publicly (with minimal editing) in an effort to help keep the community up to date with what we're thinking about and working on._
_2\. Caveat! This is internal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEAwacyRr3CZjdoyW/review-of-q-and-a-lw2-0-internal-document |
# List of Q&A Assumptions and Uncertainties [LW2.0 internal document]
_Context_
---------
_1\. This is the [second in a series](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEAwacyRr3CZjdoyW/review-of-q-and-a-lw2-0-internal-document) of internal LessWrong 2.0 team document we are sharing publicly (with minimal editing) in an effo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rFcbBbpK9yBSEFzZo/list-of-q-and-a-assumptions-and-uncertainties-lw2-0-internal |
# Why Planning is Hard: A Multifaceted Model
_Epistemic confidence: Highly confident. This post doesn’t cover everything relevant to the topic, but I am confident that everything presented is solid._
You may have noticed that planning can be rather difficult. Granted, not all plans are difficult, planning what you’r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZJzSxo6nCNvod67Xs/why-planning-is-hard-a-multifaceted-model |
# What LessWrong/Rationality/EA chat-servers exist that newcomers can join?
A few times over the past few years newcomers to the community have asked me how they can start engaging with the community, and one of the lowest-cost ways to engage has historically been chatrooms.
I know that there has been a pretty signif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQDoZ2yCX2ujLxJDk/what-lesswrong-rationality-ea-chat-servers-exist-that |
# The Case for The EA Hotel
**Epistemic Status:** I strongly believe all the things I’m writing here. These are mostly heuristics and mental models rather than hard data, which I think is necessary for a project so young. I’m trying to make a strong case for the EA hotel, not a balanced one (although it will probably ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCHsm5ZyAca8HfJSG/the-case-for-the-ea-hotel |
# What are effective strategies for mitigating the impact of acute sleep deprivation on cognition?
I've recently been finding that I struggle much more with intellectual work (math, hard programming, writing, etc.) when I sleep less 6.5-7 hours. While I'm at peace with the fact that I seem to generally require >7 hour... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jvr9LubnvhhP6EvvN/what-are-effective-strategies-for-mitigating-the-impact-of |
# Open Thread April 2019
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.
Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYMih9oqYuFzQaS3c/open-thread-april-2019 |
# Experimental Open Thread April 2019: Socratic method
[This](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L4TKbfYsvxMJwNGTQ/experimental-open-threads) post was popular, but the idea never got picked up. Let's have an experimental open thread this month!
The rules:
> Top level comments would be claims. Second level comments woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M8P4sT6uKAc5ijMaz/experimental-open-thread-april-2019-socratic-method |
# On the Nature of Agency
_Epistemic status: Fairly high confidence. Probably not complete, but I do think pieces presented are all part of the true picture._
_Agency_ and _being an agent_ are common terms within the Effective Altruist and Rationalist communities. I have only used heard them used positively, typical... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2KwBEq4ToXnvZSbz/on-the-nature-of-agency |
# I found a wild explanation for two big anomalies in metaphysics then became very doubtful of it
It's april first so I'm going to talk about the theology I've been doing.
I wanted to play this as straight as I possibly could, but partway through writing the essay I tripped over some difficult questions I don't think... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QmSXGdNPKqDFR7oYW/i-found-a-wild-explanation-for-two-big-anomalies-in |
# Learning "known" information when the information is not actually known
Methods like [cooperative inverse reinforcement learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03137) assume that the human knows their "true" reward function $R(\theta)$, and then that the human and the robot cooperate to figure out and maximise this rew... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TrudRcZxEjA2RNCxh/learning-known-information-when-the-information-is-not |
# Prompts for eliciting blind spots/bucket errors/bugs
_This post is to make publicly available a few prompts/questions I came up with aiming to uncover blind spots around identity/self-concepts._
* Select a trait X that you believe you have, and where you like that you have it (e.g. rational, kind, patient...)
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x6yra9Mmsw5HW6uNg/prompts-for-eliciting-blind-spots-bucket-errors-bugs |
# User GPT2 Has a Warning for Violating Frontpage Commenting Guidelines
We take commenting quality seriously on LessWrong, especially on Frontpage posts. In particular, we think that [this comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M8P4sT6uKAc5ijMaz/experimental-open-thread-april-2019-socratic-method#gaazNMChbDEc3uMik) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxpZYswq5QvfhTEzF/user-gpt2-has-a-warning-for-violating-frontpage-commenting |
# Announcing the Center for Applied Postrationality
Hi all! Today, we are announcing the formation of a new organization: the Center for Applied Postrationality (or CFAP).
Right now we're looking for two things: 1) $1.5 million in funding to have runway for the next six months, and 2) intellectual contributions from ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7X3BWzAt62yvvtyQX/announcing-the-center-for-applied-postrationality |
# [April Fools] User GPT2 is Banned
For the past day or so, user [GPT2](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/gpt2) has been our most prolific commenter, replying to (almost) every LessWrong comment without any outside assistance. Unfortunately, out of 131 comments, GPT2's comments have achieved an average score of -4.4, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xJiotzeonZaAbgSp/april-fools-user-gpt2-is-banned |
# Degrees of Freedom
Something I’ve been thinking about for a while is the dual relationship between optimization and indifference, and the relationship between both of them and the idea of freedom.
Optimization: “Of all the possible actions available to me, which one is best? (by some criterion). Ok, I’ll choose th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nd6XGxCiYrm2qJdh6/degrees-of-freedom |
#
LW Update 2019-04-02 – Frontpage Rework
Since LW2.0 launched, the frontpage had become very complex – both visually and conceptually. This was producing an overall bad experience, and making it hard for the team to add or scale up features (such as Q&A, and later on Community, Library and upcoming Recommendations)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4naChr23shMCYCYwX/lw-update-2019-04-02-frontpage-rework |
# Alignment Newsletter #51
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/joxveLr8egM85YTy2/alignment-newsletter-51 |
# Defeating Goodhart and the "closest unblocked strategy" problem
*This post is longer and more self-contained than my recent stubs.*
tl;dr: Patches such as telling the AI "avoid X" will result in [Goodhart's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law) and the [nearest unblocked strategy](https://arbital.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PADPJ3xac5ogjEGwA/defeating-goodhart-and-the-closest-unblocked-strategy |
# Machine Pastoralism
This idea has occurred to me before, but in the interim I dismissed it and then forgot. Since it is back again more-or-less unprompted, I am writing it down.
We usually talk about [animals and their intelligence](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/25/neurons-and-intelligence-a-birdbrained-perspe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yDPKE2kCv9cjwm4YG/machine-pastoralism |
# What are the advantages and disadvantages of knowing your own IQ?
I've seen some answers here: [https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-advantages-disadvantages-to-know-your-own-IQ](https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-advantages-disadvantages-to-know-your-own-IQ)
But I would be curious to know the perspective from people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TecrFfBthSDEzdT2i/what-are-the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-knowing-your |
# On AI and Compute
_This is a post on OpenAI’s “[AI and Compute](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/)” piece, as well as excellent responses by [Ryan Carey](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/) and [Ben Garfinkel](https://aiimpacts.org/reinterpreting-ai-and-compute/), Research Fellows at the Fut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7MsKHa55HxGKFCN6z/on-ai-and-compute |
# Modelling Model Comparisons
Define a model as a set of objects and their relationships. For example, when discussing a model of music, "notes" would be the objects and a possible relationship would be "harmony". \[Technically, the objects would be (frequency, volume, time), and from their you could define the relati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uH5r6CzSHcGzsAHkw/modelling-model-comparisons |
# How do people become ambitious?
I have a pet theory about how people become ambitious and agenty.
I was about to write up some insight porn about it, and then was like "you know, Raemon, you should probably actually think about about this for real, since it seems like Pet Psychology Theories are one of the easier w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bnk6xJyhWZKMbT2ZZ/how-do-people-become-ambitious |
# Aumann Agreement by Combat
The first paper in the SIGBOVIK 2019 proceedings, “Aumann Agreement by Combat” by Travis Hance, seems relevant to this site. The paper is on page 4 of the PDF (page 8 if you include front matter).
The abstract:
> The celebrated Aumann’s Agreement Theorem shows that two rational agents wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ryiz3cAvZtZM8K4qP/aumann-agreement-by-combat |
# How would a better replacement for tissues look like?
When one has a cold common disposable tissues are the state of the art solution for getting mucus out of one's nose.
If there's however a lot of mucus a bit of that mucus usually ends up on the hand that holds the tissue.
This in turn makes it likely that germ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q4c3q6J8bfp2vxWJq/how-would-a-better-replacement-for-tissues-look-like |
# Would solving logical counterfactuals solve anthropics?
One of the key problems with anthropics is establishing the appropriate reference class. When we attempt to calculate a probability accounting for anthropics, do we consider all agents or all humans or all humans who understand decision theory?
[If a tree fall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTDQ9eNrSNoYrZzJw/would-solving-logical-counterfactuals-solve-anthropics |
# Alignment Newsletter #52
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWj7Ti9GA98M5JaMy/alignment-newsletter-52 |
# Factored Cognition with Reflection
_Note: I accidentally moved this post to draft and re-published it. My intention wasn't to get it back on the home page. Sorry._
Some weeks ago I completed an HCH-like program/Q&A system that supports reflection, including time travel: https://github.com/rmoehn/jursey I'm just pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vc4SSzhiKtHKvFmFA/factored-cognition-with-reflection |
# Reinforcement learning with imperceptible rewards
$$\newcommand{\Co}[1]{}
\DeclareMathOperator{\Sgn}{sgn}
\DeclareMathOperator{\Supp}{supp}
\DeclareMathOperator{\Dom}{dom}
\DeclareMathOperator{\Sp}{span}
\newcommand{\AP}[1]{\left(#1\right)}
\newcommand{\AB}[1]{\left[#1\right]}
\newcommand{\AC}[1]{\left\{#1\right\}}
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aAzApjEpdYwAxnsAS/reinforcement-learning-with-imperceptible-rewards-1 |
# Towards a Quieter Life
My life is LOUD. Thoughts of fiction, conversations, unrealistic hypotheticals, games, tv shows flood my mind when there's no need to be babbling those thoughts. I have coroutines running in my mind to CHECK YOUR PHONE, YOUR EMAIL, YOUR RSS FEED, ...
Being aware of myself in those moments, I'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3C7ACByJQ3XgHKung/towards-a-quieter-life |
# The Hard Work of Translation (Buddhism)
The issue, as it seems to me, is that almost every text you read on Buddhism does not attempt to do the actual work of translation. The first transmission of Buddhism to the west reified a bunch of translations of terms, such as concentration, equanimity, tranquility, mind... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZawRiFR8ytvpqfBPX/the-hard-work-of-translation-buddhism |
# Long Term Future Fund: April 2019 grant decisions
_Please note that the following grants are only recommendations, as all grants are still pending an internal due diligence process by CEA._
This post contains our allocation and some explanatory reasoning for our Q1 2019 grant round. We opened up an application for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t3t9osBsmwkajWz5Y/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions |
# The Simple Solow Model of Software Engineering
_Optional background: [The Super-Simple Solow Model](https://mru.org/courses/principles-economics-macroeconomics/solow-model-economic-growth)_
Software is economic capital - just like buildings, infrastructure, machines, etc. It’s created once, and then used for a (rel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zi8vrf2aBCLu3Gh9s/the-simple-solow-model-of-software-engineering |
# Agent Meta-Foundations and the Rocket Alignment Problem
Many people are quite skeptical of the value of agent foundations. The kinds of problems that MIRI worries about, in terms of [accounting for perfect predictors](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Newcomb's_problem), [co-operation with](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QRnbH33FjooFv9Gif/agent-meta-foundations-and-the-rocket-alignment-problem |
# Alignment Newsletter One Year Retrospective
On April 9, 2018, the first Alignment Newsletter was sent out to me and one test recipient. A year later, it has 889 subscribers and two additional content writers, and is the thing for which I’m best known. In this post I look at the impact of the newsletter and try to fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3onCb5ph3ywLQZMX2/alignment-newsletter-one-year-retrospective |
# Best reasons for pessimism about impact of impact measures?
Habryka [recently wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t3t9osBsmwkajWz5Y/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions) (emphasis mine):
> My inside views on AI Alignment make me think that work on impact measures is _very unlikely_ to result in much ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kCY9dYGLoThC3aG7w/best-reasons-for-pessimism-about-impact-of-impact-measures |
# Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra
I've been discoursing more privately about the corruption of discourse lately, for reasons that I hope are obvious at least in the abstract, but there's one thing I did think was shareable. The context is another friend's [then-forthcoming blog post about the politic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8XDZjfThxDxLvKWiM/excerpts-from-a-larger-discussion-about-simulacra |
# Corrigibility as Constrained Optimisation
_This post is coauthored with Ryan Carey._
Much of the work on developing a corrigible agent has focused on ensuring that an AI will not manipulate the shutdown button or any other kind of device that the human operator would use to control it. Suppose, however, that the AI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cGLgs3t9md7v7cCm4/corrigibility-as-constrained-optimisation |
# On Media Synthesis: An Essay on The Next 15 Years of Creative Automation
One of my favorite childhood memories involves something that technically never happened. When I was ten years old, my waking life revolved around cartoons— flashy, colorful, quirky shows that I could find in convenient thirty-minute blocks... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q4vQLfqnv2C2KCoA3/on-media-synthesis-an-essay-on-the-next-15-years-of-creative |
# Highlights from "Integral Spirituality"
_[Cross-posted from Map and Territory](https://medium.com/@gworley3/highlights-from-integral-spirituality-8c7f6ecee537)_
Apologia
========
A couple months ago [a friend](http://bearlamp.com.au) gifted me a copy of [Ken Wilber's _Integral Spirituality_](https://www.shambhala.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7HY8HaRdFFnpeT9gx/highlights-from-integral-spirituality |
# Where to Draw the Boundaries?
**Followup to:** [Where to Draw the Boundary?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d5NyJ2Lf6N22AD9PB/where-to-draw-the-boundary)
_Figuring where to cut reality in order to carve along the joints—figuring which things are similar to each other, which things are clustered together:_ this _is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries |
# Quantitative Philosophy: Why Simulate Ideas Numerically?
_Adapted from my blog. I argue that numerical simulations are an effective yet underused tool in philosophy (and rationality) and give a concrete example of a numerical toy model, from assumptions to design to implementations to results, including the source c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JigXyiFaiAZ6zY9d6/quantitative-philosophy-why-simulate-ideas-numerically |
# A Numerical Model of View Clusters: Results
As promised in the [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JigXyiFaiAZ6zY9d6/quantitative-philosophy-why-simulate-ideas-numerically), here are some results of the simulation.
So now that the hard work is done, let’s see what the model gives us. I cheated a bit and adj... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7uzTGqerKKeML7M2K/a-numerical-model-of-view-clusters-results |
# Can coherent extrapolated volition be estimated with Inverse Reinforcement Learning?
**Given the following conditions,** is it possible to approximate the coherent extrapolated value of humanity to a "good enough" level?:
* Some form of reward/cost function estimation is used, such as inverse reinforcement learni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CBKNqmEcojy9PGLec/can-coherent-extrapolated-volition-be-estimated-with-inverse |
# Scrying for outcomes where the problem of deepfakes has been solved
(Prompted by the post: [On Media Synthesis: An Essay on The Next 15 Years of](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q4vQLfqnv2C2KCoA3/on-media-synthesis-an-essay-on-the-next-15-years-of-creative) [Creative](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q4vQLfqnv2C2KCoA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p3eDJ9gwDKR7KpfCi/scrying-for-outcomes-where-the-problem-of-deepfakes-has-been |
# Literature Review: Distributed Teams
Introduction
============
Context: Oliver Habryka commissioned me to study and summarize the literature on distributed teams, with the goal of improving altruistic organizations. We wanted this to be rigorous as possible; unfortunately the rigor ceiling was low, for reasons disc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f2GF3q6fgyx8TqZcn/literature-review-distributed-teams |
# Agency and Sphexishness: A Second Glance
**This post is backported from my [old personal blog](https://asensethat.com/), originally published 11 October, 2014.** It's similar in theme but very different in focus than my recent post, _[On the](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2KwBEq4ToXnvZSbz/on-the-nature-of-agency)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ctkm5YXzdhKK3kdXs/agency-and-sphexishness-a-second-glance |
# Slack Club
This is a post from The Last Rationalist, which asks, generally, "Why do rationalists have such a hard time doing things, as a community?" Their answer is that rationality selects for a particular smart-but-lazy archetype, who values solving problems with silver bullets and abstraction, rather than hard w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S45KWuzFdBTe8eQPX/slack-club |
# Conditional revealed preference
In the linked post, I discuss revealed preference analysis and argue that claims about someone's actual values should predict not only what they do in their current situation, but what they would do in substantially different situations, given e.g. different information and different ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bxw4iMS33Dc2iETpe/conditional-revealed-preference |
# Robin Hanson on Simple, Evidence Backed Models
This is link to a Hanson post that is primarily about tax returns, and whether they should be public. It was an interesting foray into the considerations that bear on that topic.
But I was particularly interested in the opening paragraph, which had a useful lens:
> Ou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/35KWS7iQqtLLBKazx/robin-hanson-on-simple-evidence-backed-models |
# Open Problems in Archipelago
Over a year ago, I wrote about [Public Archipelago](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Ym7DN6h877eyaCnT/meta-tations-on-moderation-towards-public-archipelago) and why it seemed important for LessWrong. Since then, nothing much has come of that. It seemed important to acknowledge that. Ther... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AqbQxS9DEeRTbWSFf/open-problems-in-archipelago |
# Reflections on the Mythic Invitational
Previously / Compare and Contrast To: [Reflections on the 2017 Magic Online Championship](https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/reflections-on-the-2017-magic-online-championship/)
Previously: [Speculations on Duo Standard](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/speculation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TFntTajZpNv8hAcWq/reflections-on-the-mythic-invitational |
# StrongerByScience: a rational strength training website
StrongerByScience is a website I have been using to inform my recently-renewed weightlifting habit. I think it will be of interest here because the writers are experts in a practice (strength training, particularly powerlifting), and their modus operandi is to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vyPLTPKdvnkskT6qe/strongerbyscience-a-rational-strength-training-website |
# Crypto quant trading: Intro
I’m going to write a few posts on quant trading. Specifically trading crypto, since that’s what I know best. Here’s a few reasons why I’m doing this:
* I think I can benefit a lot from writing about my approach and methodology. Hopefully this will make the ideas and assumptions more cl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8MXx3fykQwHnpS7R/crypto-quant-trading-intro |
# Episode 1 of "Tsuyoku Naritai!" (the 'becoming stronger' podcast/YT series).
The Kansas City Rationalists just had our first dojo meetup yesterday. It was a success as far as first meetings go; we had great attendance, including a couple non-rationalists. We are using the 'Hammertime' sequence as our content.
I am ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zvXR7rRsibLkdASyv/episode-1-of-tsuyoku-naritai-the-becoming-stronger-podcast |
# Alignment Newsletter #53
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jdMjzFf7tmT6ofLk9/alignment-newsletter-53 |
# Helen Toner on China, CSET, and AI
Miscellaneous excerpts I found interesting from Julia Galef's recent interview of Helen Toner:
* * *
**Helen Toner:** \[...\] \[8:00\] I feel like the West has this portrayal of the company Baidu as the "Google" of China. And when you think “Google,” you think super high tech... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cHwCBTwWiTdsqXNyn/helen-toner-on-china-cset-and-ai |
# Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?
14 months ago, [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) and [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) both published forceful and well-received take-downs of many... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PzAnWgqvfESgQEvdg/any-rebuttals-of-christiano-and-ai-impacts-on-takeoff-speeds |
# AI Alignment Problem:
“Human Values” don’t Actually Exist
_Previous posts in the series: “[What AI Safety Researchers Have Written About the Nature of Human Values](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GermiEmcS6xuZ2gBh/what-ai-safety-researchers-have-written-about-the-nature-of)”, [Possible Dangers of the Unrestricted... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ngqvnWGsvTEiTASih/ai-alignment-problem-human-values-don-t-actually-exist |
# On the Nature of Programming Languages
What are we doing when designing a programming language? We decide whether it's going to be imperative or declarative. We add a bunch of operators. We add some kind of objects and visibility rules. We decide to make it either strongly-typed or weakly-typed. Maybe we add generic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HSmi89KXx5TaEBHH3/on-the-nature-of-programming-languages |
# Counterfactuals about Social Media
Response To (Marginal Revolution): [Counterfactuals about Social Media](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/04/counterfactuals-about-social-media.html)
See also: [Against Facebook](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/against-facebook/), [Against Facebook: Co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xDH6WfXoeoBvDuv4H/counterfactuals-about-social-media |
# Book review: The Sleepwalkers by Arthur Koestler
> The progress of Science is generally regarded as a kind of clean, rational advance along a straight ascending line; in fact it has followed a zigzag course, at times almost more bewildering than the evolution of political thought. The history of cosmic theories, in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Ts4GrXGQEqTinPD2/book-review-the-sleepwalkers-by-arthur-koestler |
# 1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled
*\[**Epistemic status:** Very speculative, especially Parts 3 and 4. Like many good things, this post is based on a conversation with Paul Christiano; most of the good ideas are his, any errors are mine.\]*
**I.**
In the 1950s, an Austrian scientist discovered a series ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYrF8rXFYwPqnfxTp/1960-the-year-the-singularity-was-cancelled |
# How to make plans?
What models are out there for how humans can personally make plans, especially grand master plans that scale to a whole lifespan or beyond?
* What is the set of good plan components? (e.g. "backchaining")
* What useful tools are out there to help with planning? (e.g. "pen and paper")
* How ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6GMY2G2gY7NkeD9ZZ/how-to-make-plans |
# Degree of duplication and coordination in projects that examine computing prices, AI progress, and related topics?
I have been noticing that an increasing number of organizations and researchers are looking into historical computing hardware prices, progress in AI systems, the relationship between hardware and AI pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9YwNXt7ANyMqTu6Ky/degree-of-duplication-and-coordination-in-projects-that |
# The Principle of Predicted Improvement
I made a conjecture I think is cool. Mark Sellke proved it. I don't know what else to do with it, so I will explain why I think it's cool and give the proof here. Hopefully, you will think it's cool, too.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cpWgnzhbZyxQFzCsj/the-principle-of-predicted-improvement |
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