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# Simple Rules of Law
Response To: [Who Likes Simple Rules?](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/05/simplerules.html)
Epistemic Status: Working through examples with varying degrees of confidence, to help us be concrete and eventually generalize.
Robin Hanson has, in his words, “some puzzles” that I will be analyzing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kKSFsbjdX3kxsYaTM/simple-rules-of-law |
# Naked mole-rats: A case study in biological weirdness
_Epistemic status: Speculative, just having fun. This piece isn't well-cited, but I can pull up sources as needed - nothing about mole-rats is my original research. A lot of this piece is based on [Wikipedia](https://www.pacificsciencecenter.org/naked-mole-rat-ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fDKZZtTMTcGqvHnXd/naked-mole-rats-a-case-study-in-biological-weirdness |
# Getting Out of the Filter Bubble Outside Your Filter Bubble
_Related_: [The "Outside the Box" Box](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qu95AwSrKqQSo4fCY/the-outside-the-box-box)
As politics becomes more polarized, and more people are trying to figure out why, more people think the answer is that too many of us are in [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPAkCJC4qn6reRqXt/getting-out-of-the-filter-bubble-outside-your-filter-bubble |
# Comment section from 05/19/2019
I moved the big meta-level comment thread from ["Yes Requires the Possibility of No"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G5TwJ9BGxcgh5DsmQ/yes-requires-the-possibility-of-no#ijE36ZJAyTj8t7jfy) over to here, since it seemed mostly unrelated to that top-level post. This not being on frontp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WwTPSkNwC89g3Afnd/comment-section-from-05-19-2019 |
# Would an option to publish to AF users only be a useful feature?
Right now there are quite a few private safety docs floating around. There's evidently demand for a privacy setting lower than "only people I personally approve", but higher than "anyone on the internet gets to see it". But this means that safety resea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbuntLhCeuPJmGT5M/would-an-option-to-publish-to-af-users-only-be-a-useful |
# [AN #56] Should ML researchers stop running experiments before making hypotheses?
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zkXPo4ZTrDFZz7Sd/an-56-should-ml-researchers-stop-running-experiments-before |
# By default, avoid ambiguous distant situations
>*"The Ood.[...] They're born for it. Basic slave race."* Mr. Jefferson, [*The Impossible Planet*](https://tardis.fandom.com/wiki/The_Impossible_Planet_(TV_story)).
>*"And although he may be poor, he shall never be a slave,"*, from the [*Battle Cry of Freedom*](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PX8BB7Rqw7HedrSJd/by-default-avoid-ambiguous-distant-situations |
# More Notes on Simple Rules
Original Post by Robin: [Simple Rules](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/05/simplerules.html)
Previously: [Simple Rules of Law](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/19/simple-rules-of-law/)
Sarah Constantin on Twitter (if you are doomed to be on social media at all, you should follow he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NgXCYBaWeP4bGkaB3/more-notes-on-simple-rules |
# Go Do Something
There's this notion going around in the community sometimes that holds that the best way to progress on one's rationality skills is to make lots and lots of theoretical study by yourself or to go off and "level up" a bunch on your own prior to getting involved in object-level projects or efforts.
I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XDZK5HZ5fXn3GL7cP/go-do-something |
# TAISU - Technical AI Safety Unconference
**Start:** Thursday, August 22, 10am
**End:** Sunday, August 25, 7pm
**Location:** [EA Hotel](http://eahotel.org/wiki/#travel), 36 York Street, Blackpool
It is an unconference, which means that it will be what we make of it. There will be an empty schedule wich you, the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/yuMuDGnJ8omGhMx9y/taisu-technical-ai-safety-unconference |
# A Quick Taxonomy of Arguments for Theoretical Engineering Capabilities
_Epistemic Status: I didn't think about this for that long, could be improved, but I still think it's a good first pass._
**This post is was written as an answer to the "and how do we know that?" part of the question _[Space colonization: what c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FAzsLPgosq4fRthuJ/a-quick-taxonomy-of-arguments-for-theoretical-engineering |
# Constraints & Slackness Reasoning Exercises
*Epistemic status: no idea if this will work at all for learning the relevant thought-skills. Please post feedback if you try any exercises, especially if you hadn’t internalized these skills already.*
The goal of this post is to briefly explain and practice a very genera... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iJDrAuhByc8jJiFCE/constraints-and-slackness-reasoning-exercises |
# Where are people thinking and talking about global coordination for AI safety?
Many AI safety researchers these days are not aiming for a full solution to AI safety (e.g., the classic Friendly AI), but just trying to find good enough partial solutions that would buy time for or otherwise help improve global coordina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sM2sANArtSJE6duZZ/where-are-people-thinking-and-talking-about-global |
# Schelling Fences versus Marginal Thinking
Follow-up / Related to: Scott Alexander's [Schelling Fences on Slippery Slopes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kbm6QnJv9dgWsPHQP/schelling-fences-on-slippery-slopes), [Sunk Cost Fallacy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyMdPwd8x2RygcheE/sunk-cost-fallacy), Gwern's [Are Sunk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S9B3t6G6xfKL4ER9e/schelling-fences-versus-marginal-thinking |
# What is your personal experience with "having a meaningful life"?
I hear a lot of different stories about how meaning should fit into one's life
> "What's all this meaning bullshit? Just focus on doing your job well and providing for your family."
^my grandparents
> "Wanting meaning is wanting a simple narrative ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4niq8TDfbddiXw8u/what-is-your-personal-experience-with-having-a-meaningful |
# And the AI would have got away with it too, if...
Paul Christiano presented some low-key [AI catastrophe scenarios](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/more-realistic-tales-of-doom); in response, Robin Hanson [argued](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/04/agency-failure-ai-apocalypse.html) that Pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/92J4zJHkqmXTduxzY/and-the-ai-would-have-got-away-with-it-too-if |
# Free will as an appearance to others
### Free will
Consider **creatures**. This is really hard to define in general, but for now let's just consider biological creatures. They are physical systems.
An **effectively deterministic system**, or an **apparent machine**, is a system whose **behavior** can be predicted ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ee46mwm8MoQiY3Ft8/free-will-as-an-appearance-to-others |
# Separation of Concerns
Separation of concerns is a principle in computer science which says that distinct concerns should be addressed by distinct subsystems, so that you can optimize for them separately. We can also apply the idea in many other places, including human rationality. This idea has been [written about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o6GS3JoWKeuuvBPSK/separation-of-concerns |
# Learning-by-doing AI Safety Research workshop
**Edit:** This workshop is now full, but due to the enthusiasm I have received I am going to organize a second Learning-by-doing AI Safety workshop some time in October/November this year. If you want to influence when it will be you can fill in our doodle: [https://dood... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/z9peEBfuiPB7L2Edb/learning-by-doing-ai-safety-research-workshop |
# Laws of John Wick
**Spoiler Alert: This spoils central plot points of John Wick, John Wick 2 and John Wick 3. **
Should You See Those Movies: Yes. They’re awesome. Unless you do not like violence, especially gun violence, in which case they’re not for you.
John Wick exists in a special universe. Its criminal world... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a4GDgCESZ9fRWXrmH/laws-of-john-wick |
# Say Wrong Things
There are many ways you might approach being less wrong.
A popular one is to make fewer wrong statements; to say fewer wrong things.
Naively it would seem this is a recipe for success, since you just say more things that are true and right and fewer things that are false and wrong. But if [Goodhar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uN3wjp2K6TEQ2oAML/say-wrong-things-1 |
# Micro feedback loops and learning
_Tldr: some not-particularly-ordered thoughts about how learning works in humans, via the example of singing._
**A high-tech feedback loop**
-----------------------------
I recently discovered [Singer’sStudio](https://www.erolstudios.com/singers-studio-voice-and-ear-training/), an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vmcii44HYJQkL8DQN/micro-feedback-loops-and-learning |
# Von Neumann’s critique of automata theory and logic in computer science
Quote from [The General and Logical Theory of Automata](https://www.cs.ucf.edu/~dcm/Teaching/COP5611Spring2010/vonNeumannSelfReproducingAutomata.pdf). Corrected some typos using [this](https://www.vordenker.de/ggphilosophy/jvn_the-general-and-lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Eve2miBH8wAhhxNwT/von-neumann-s-critique-of-automata-theory-and-logic-in |
# What should rationalists think about the recent claims that air force pilots observed UFOs?
NY times has [a new material](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/26/us/politics/ufo-sightings-navy-pilots.html) about possible observations of UFOs by air force pilots. Should rationalists use their arsenal of new ideas about ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBaPge5g3234hrGHN/what-should-rationalists-think-about-the-recent-claims-that |
# A shift in arguments for AI risk
_The linked post is work done by Tom Adamczewski while at FHI. I think this sort of expository and analytic work is very valuable, so I'm cross-posting it here (with his permission). Below is an extended summary; for the full document, see his linked blog post._
Many people now work... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hubbRt4DPegiA5gRR/a-shift-in-arguments-for-ai-risk |
# Evidence for Connection Theory
Connection Theory (CT) is the original philosophy underpinning [Leverage Research](http://leverageresearch.org/), a research think tank focused that has worked with the effective altruism movement, and the rationality community, in the past on community-building, and existential risk r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MWW23dueMoPqmvCx8/evidence-for-connection-theory |
# Drowning children are rare
Stories such as Peter Singer's "drowning child" hypothetical frequently imply that there is a major funding gap for health interventions in poor countries, such that there is a moral imperative for people in rich-countries to give a large portion of their income to charity. There are simpl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qaYeQnSYotCHQcPh8/drowning-children-are-rare |
# What is required to run a psychology study?
I periodically find myself wishing someone had run an experiment on a particular topic. But they haven't.
Often, it seems like there's a relatively easy experiment you can run, which would give me some evidence about it. Maybe it wouldn't be perfect evidence, but it would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AYc58gmoWnmDeeyuM/what-is-required-to-run-a-psychology-study |
# Seeking suggestions for EA cash-prize contest
I have grown interested in the cash-prize EA essay contest format that I've seen on LessWrong. I'm interested in sponsoring a 3-essay series of contests, and would appreciate exploratory thoughts and critique. My goal is to make this essay series produce genuinely us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XyjQoLWDc6usKXAko/seeking-suggestions-for-ea-cash-prize-contest |
# How to find a lost phone with dead battery, using Google Location History Takeout
Or, wow, it's crazy how much Google knows about me.
(I'm writing this in part because I tried to Google variations of "how to find a lost phone with dead battery" and among all the articles in the search results that I clicked on, d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B3NR6SwkXkvY8cFpK/how-to-find-a-lost-phone-with-dead-battery-using-google |
# Archive of all LW essay contests
[I've compiled all the LW writing contests I could find to date.](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Zm2YSgb-U-QOXKNvkariT-eXh_ztoi3pm_ftsoxAlI/edit?usp=sharing) There are 15 in all, plus a few more from other websites. Quite a few of the articles have disappeared from the web,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BAjGyMsyZc4MdHEeu/archive-of-all-lw-essay-contests |
# Quotes from Moral Mazes
Reading and actually paying attention to [Moral Mazes](https://smile.amazon.com/Moral-Mazes-World-Corporate-Managers/dp/0199729883/ref=sr_1_1?crid=OJGZ86L13D60&keywords=moral+mazes&qid=1559216763&s=gateway&sprefix=moral+mazes%2Caps%2C121&sr=8-1) is hard. Writing carefully about it is even har... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45mNHCMaZgsvfDXbw/quotes-from-moral-mazes |
# Uncertainty versus fuzziness versus extrapolation desiderata
I [proposed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PADPJ3xac5ogjEGwA/defeating-goodhart-and-the-closest-unblocked-strategy) a way around [Goodhart's curse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law). Essentially this reduces to properly accounting all of ou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QJwnPRBBvgaeFeiLR/uncertainty-versus-fuzziness-versus-extrapolation-desiderata |
# How would you advise a peer-supported virtues-oriented self-help group?
The "virtues" are the classical name for those habitual characteristics of acting and thinking that tend toward a flourishing, beneficial life. An influential theory of virtues holds that they are much like many other human skills in that you ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rSDHsc2YeBxkJuw49/how-would-you-advise-a-peer-supported-virtues-oriented-self |
# Lonelinesses
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/05/21/lonelinesses/).
* * *
In recent weeks I found myself experiencing a profound loneliness. I became curious about this feeling, and I tried to examine it. Though not often, I’ve certainly felt lonely before and yet this time felt new to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LxLhQoHTcXG8CYaeP/lonelinesses |
# How to determine if my sympathetic or my parasympathetic nervous system is currently dominant?
I've been reading CFAR Handbook's chapter about Againstness. The chapter's idea is that when your sympathetic nervous system (SNS) is dominant over parasympathetic nervous system (PSNS), your introspection is impaired and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6fqWFLTQoEMHPgJia/how-to-determine-if-my-sympathetic-or-my-parasympathetic |
# When Observation Beats Experiment
Suppose we have a strain of lab rats which are colored purple, and we want to know why. We suspect that chemical X is responsible, so we run an experiment:
* We genetically modify our purple rats to repress X production, and find that their purple coloration disappears.
* We ge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5vxFq8ncZqa3QRsPT/when-observation-beats-experiment |
# Site Guide: Personal Blogposts vs Frontpage Posts
Posts on practically any topic are welcomed on LessWrong \[1\]. I (and others on the team) feel it is important that members are able to “bring their entire selves” to LessWrong and are able to share all their thoughts, ideas, and experiences without fearing whether... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5conQhfa4rgb4SaWx/site-guide-personal-blogposts-vs-frontpage-posts |
# Risks from Learned Optimization: Introduction
_This is the first of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)” by Evan Hu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FkgsxrGf3QxhfLWHG/risks-from-learned-optimization-introduction |
# The LessWrong Team
LessWrong Core Team
===================
Oliver Habryka / [habryka](http://www.lesswrong.com/users/habryka4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
> Oliver Habryka is the current project lead for LessWrong.com, where he tries to build infrastructure for making intell... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aG74jJkiPccqdkK3c/the-lesswrong-team |
# A Brief History of LessWrong
In 2006, [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/eliezer_yudkowsky), [Robin Hanson](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/robin_hanson2), and others began writing on _[Overcoming Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/about)_, a group blog with the general theme of how to move one’s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S69ogAGXcc9EQjpcZ/a-brief-history-of-lesswrong-1 |
# Feedback Requested! Draft of a New About/Welcome Page for LessWrong
**Context for Draft / Request for Feedback**
The LessWrong team is hoping to soon display a new About/Welcome page which does an improved job of conveying what LessWrong.com is about and how community members can productively use the site.
However... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MqrzczdGhQCRePgqN/feedback-requested-draft-of-a-new-about-welcome-page-for |
# "But It Doesn't Matter"
If you ever find yourself saying, "Even if Hypothesis _H_ is true, it doesn't have any decision-relevant implications," _you are rationalizing!_ The fact that _H_ is interesting enough for you to be considering the question at all (it's not some arbitrary trivium like the 1923th binary digit ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NG4XQEL5PTyguDMff/but-it-doesn-t-matter |
# Welcome and Open Thread June 2019
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.
Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hEM7HjSpNphfQ82jW/welcome-and-open-thread-june-2019 |
# I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew.
[Here it is](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Y9TfVw_-w1vDP5hE39twq9d9qekuEkA8In0h8GW0_NE/edit?usp=sharing) \- if you know Hebrew and have feedback, do give it, either in the comments here or in the document (it's not fully edited).
I don't really know wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7HjhGpzdmbaMb7Ee/i-translated-twelve-virtues-of-rationality-into-hebrew |
# The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing: Missing Link of the Dutch Book Arguments
_Assumed background: [Acyclic preferences, Dutch Book theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/coherent-decisions-imply-consistent-utilities)_
There are fairly elementary arguments that, in the absence of uncertain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZeZXF6LwZn5vqFo9/the-fundamental-theorem-of-asset-pricing-missing-link-of-the |
# Conditions for Mesa-Optimization
_This is the second of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)” by Evan Hubinger, Chri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q2rCMHNXazALgQpGH/conditions-for-mesa-optimization |
# FB/Discord Style Reacts
For the past year I've wanted LessWrong to include something like Discord, Facebook or Slashdot style reactions.
_Facebook Style_ means "there's a few key reactions that people use"
_Discord Style_ means "there's nigh-infinite reactions and you can add more, but there still end up being a f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SDELNzyboMpZpDwSg/fb-discord-style-reacts |
# Selection vs Control
This is something which has bothered me for a while, but, I'm writing it specifically in response to the [recent post on mesa-optimizers](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FkgsxrGf3QxhfLWHG/risks-from-learned-optimization-introduction).
I feel strongly that the notion of 'optimization pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZDZmopKquzHYPRNxq/selection-vs-control |
# Moral Mazes and Short Termism
Previously: [Short Termism](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/03/04/short-termism/) and [Quotes from Moral Mazes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/quotes-from-moral-mazes/)
Epistemic Status: Long term
My list of [quotes from moral mazes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Zsuv5uPFPNTACwzg/moral-mazes-and-short-termism |
# On alien science
In his book *The Fabric of Reality*, David Deutsch makes the case that science is about coming up with good and true explanations, with all other considerations being secondary. This clashes with the more conventional view that the goal of science is to allow us to make accurate predictions - see fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/othqMhzQEQXFb4LhK/on-alien-science |
# What is the evidence for productivity benefits of weightlifting?
_\[Mod Note: This question received an answer that seemed worth curating. See the answer by LW user [hereisonehand](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/hereisonehand) for the curation notice\]_
I've been weightlifting for a while, and I've heard vaguely g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fDEWxY8LD4qmf2NF/what-is-the-evidence-for-productivity-benefits-of-1 |
# Does Bayes Beat Goodhart?
Stuart Armstrong [has](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/urZzJPwHtjewdKKHc/using-expected-utility-for-good-hart) [claimed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PADPJ3xac5ogjEGwA/defeating-goodhart-and-the-closest-unblocked-strategy) to beat Goodhart with Bayesian uncertainty -- rather than assumin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YJq6R9Wgk5Atjx54D/does-bayes-beat-goodhart |
# To first order, moral realism and moral anti-realism are the same thing
I've taken [a somewhat caricaturist view](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WeAt5TeS8aYc4Cpms/values-determined-by-stopping-properties) of moral realism[^1], describing it, essentially, as the random walk of a process defined by its "stopping" pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FQKjY563bJqDeaEDr/to-first-order-moral-realism-and-moral-anti-realism-are-the |
# Our plan for 2019-2020: consulting for AI Safety education
UPDATE: this plan received sizable criticism. We are reflecting on it, and working on a revision.
Tl;dr: a conversation with a grantmaker made us drop our long-held assumption that outputs needed to be concrete to be recognized. We decided to take a step ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PSxcPAqYuEWLKAz6n/our-plan-for-2019-2020-consulting-for-ai-safety-education-1 |
# The Inner Alignment Problem
_This is the third of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)” by Evan Hubinger, Chris van ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pL56xPoniLvtMDQ4J/the-inner-alignment-problem |
# How is Solomonoff induction calculated in practice?
Solomonoff induction is generally given as the correct way to penalise more complex hypotheses when calculating priors. A great introduction can be found [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kyc5dFDzBg4WccrbK/an-intuitive-explanation-of-solomonoff-induction).
My... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q9hDFkvCSwi6cwPGy/how-is-solomonoff-induction-calculated-in-practice-1 |
# Seeing the Matrix, Switching Abstractions, and Missing Moods
_Epistemic Status: Poetry, but also, True Story_
For seven years, I worked in a supermarket bakery.
The bakery was quite a nice place to work. I got a good mix of physical exercise (everything I know about basketball I learned from tossing heavy boxes of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNWmzdpcynC3rpFwf/seeing-the-matrix-switching-abstractions-and-missing-moods |
# All knowledge is circularly justified
Many philosophers have tried to find the foundations of our knowledge, but why do we think there are any? The framing of foundations implies a separate bottom layer of knowledge from which everything is built up. And while this is undoubtedly a useful model in many contexts, why... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bL3c94HkgxLqiSpzK/all-knowledge-is-circularly-justified |
# Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success
*\[Previously in sequence:* [*Epistemic Learned Helplessness*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/03/repost-epistemic-learned-helplessness/)*\]*
**I.**
“Culture is the secret of humanity’s success” sounds like the most vapid possible thesis. [*The Secret Of Our Success*](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zm7WAJMTaFvuh2Wc7/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success |
# Major Update on Cost Disease
Recently I asked about cost disease at the Austin, TX meetup and someone responded "Isn't it just increasing labor costs via the [Baumol effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease)?" and I said "huh?" The next day a friend on facebook linked to Marginal Revolution (MR)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igtrqYzLekKbdkSu3/major-update-on-cost-disease-1 |
# Deceptive Alignment
_This is the fourth of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)” by Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zthDPAjh9w6Ytbeks/deceptive-alignment |
# Steelmanning Divination
\[This post was primarily written in 2015, after I gave a related talk, and other bits in 2018; I decided to finish writing it now because of a recent SSC post.\]
The standard forms of divination that I’ve seen in contemporary Western culture--astrology, fortune cookies, lotteries, that sort... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnkbdwckdfHS2H22Q/steelmanning-divination |
# [AN #57] Why we should focus on robustness in AI safety, and the analogous problems in programming
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreads... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmvJ6kJ4ADcHcypYJ/an-57-why-we-should-focus-on-robustness-in-ai-safety-and-the |
# Impact of aging research besides LEV
This is the third post of a series in which I'm trying to build a framework to evaluate aging research. Previous posts:
1\. [A general framework for evaluating aging research. Part 1: reasoning with Longevity Escape Velocity](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jYMdWskbrTW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXPkJPkQd2qvTSwdB/impact-of-aging-research-besides-lev |
# Circle Games
I may be reinventing a known thing in child development or psychology here, but bear with me.
The simplest games I see babies play — games simple enough that cats and dogs can play them too — are what I’d call “circle games.”
Think of the game of “fetch”. I throw the ball, Rover runs and brings it ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Fft9kNTvqixttGc3/circle-games |
# Arbital scrape
Update: [Arbital Scrape V2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pSh54GoJJqfHdndk/arbital-scrape-v2)
I've scraped [http://arbital.com](http://arbital.com) as the site is unusably slow and hard to search for me.
The scrape is locally browsable and plain HTML save for MathJax.
[https://drive.google.com/o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/muKEBrHhETwN6vp8J/arbital-scrape |
# Visiting the Bay Area from 17-30 June
I'll be in the Bay Area from the 17-30 June for training as a TripleByte Interviewer. My interests include:
* Effective altruism - particularly movement building
* Agent foundations - particularly updateless decision theory and anthropics
* Infinite ethics
* More broadl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gD2rkXJxTcTKFiiJG/visiting-the-bay-area-from-17-30-june |
# Fractional Reserve Charity
On the [EA Corner discord server](https://discord.gg/Zj2vW89), various participants, most notably @wolframhead, tossed around the following idea: Some people of an EA bent may want to donate vast amounts of money, huge percentages of high salaries, but be held back in case they turn out to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A4DkMYgiDCmRMtKxr/fractional-reserve-charity |
# For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Have human values improved over the last few centuries? Or is it just that current human values are naturally closer to our (current) human values and so we think that there's been moral progress towards us?
If we project out in the future, the first scenari... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SDr45pcgJJyvTqmZa/for-the-past-in-some-ways-only-we-are-moral-degenerates |
# Personal musings on Individualism and Empathy
One type of the more common accusations that people throw at me can be described like this: "You're an egoist. You don't think about others." To my teenage self this sounded amusing, and I would respond with a smug "Why yes, I _am_ an egoist, thank you very much!"
Her... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZbNcxP2g3A2wZoKvv/personal-musings-on-individualism-and-empathy |
# Risks from Learned Optimization: Conclusion and Related Work
_This is the fifth of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.018... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4XPa3xa44jAWiCkmy/risks-from-learned-optimization-conclusion-and-related-work |
# AGI will drastically increase economies of scale
In [Strategic implications of AIs’ ability to coordinate at low cost](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gYaKZeBbSL4y2RLP3/strategic-implications-of-ais-ability-to-coordinate-at-low), I talked about the possibility that different AGIs can coordinate with each other much ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sn5NiiD5WBi4dLzaB/agi-will-drastically-increase-economies-of-scale |
# The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag"
Followup/distillation/alternate-take on Duncan Sabien's [Dragon Army Retrospective](https://medium.com/@ThingMaker/dragon-army-retrospective-597faf182e50) and [Open Problems in Group Rationality](https://medium.com/@ThingMaker/open-problems-in-group-rationality-5636440a2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zp5AEENssb8ZDnoZR/the-schelling-choice-is-rabbit-not-stag |
# Asymmetric Weapons Aren't Always on Your Side
Some time ago, Scott Alexander wrote about [asymmetric weapons](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/24/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons/), and now he [writes again about them](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/06/asymmetric-weapons-gone-bad/). During these posts, Scot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nd5KiuN8pPBrMT82Z/asymmetric-weapons-aren-t-always-on-your-side-1 |
# Two labyrinths - where would you rather be?
_Two Kings and two Labyrinths_ is a very short story, written by J.L. Borges. It barely manages to fill the space of a single page; and yet there is enough in it to allow for an interesting dissertation.
The actual story is about a rivalry between two kings: The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JHThjbPFomxPwjiEz/two-labyrinths-where-would-you-rather-be-1 |
# Mistakes with Conservation of Expected Evidence
_Epistemic Status: I've really spent some time wrestling with this one. I am highly confident in most of what I say. However, this differs from section to section. I'll put more specific epistemic statuses at the end of each section._
Some of this post is generated fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zTfSXQracE7TW8x4w/mistakes-with-conservation-of-expected-evidence |
# Paternal Formats
In [How to Make a Complete Map of Every Thought You Think](https://users.speakeasy.net/~lion/nb/book.pdf), Lion Kimbro introduces the idea of coercive vs uncoercive formats for information. \[Re-named to "Paternal vs Navigable" here, at [the suggestion of MakoYass](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dnk4qvGNXRddvFyJM/paternal-formats |
# Learning magic
Magic (primarily misdirection and cold-reading, but also the mechanics like sleight-of-hand) seems like an extremely good case-study in the study of how the human mind works and the predictable ways in which human maps differ from the territory. There are several magicians out there who offer to teach... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBtGzP5shRoN6qeuv/learning-magic |
# In Defense of Those Reclusive Authors
Notable Authors of the 20th Century Who Were Introverted
--------------------------------------------------------
Writing fiction is usually a solitary profession. Among those individuals who end up producing art to express themselves, one can logically assume that there wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p4YbAXT2dnSAaKc2L/in-defense-of-those-reclusive-authors-1 |
# The expected value of extinction risk reduction is positive
[(Cross-post from the EA forum)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NfkEqssr7qDazTquW/the-expected-value-of-extinction-risk-reduction-is-positive)
# Short summary
There are good reasons to care about sentient beings living in the millions of years ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nJzBWzym4ySAwmk4G/the-expected-value-of-extinction-risk-reduction-is-positive-1 |
# An attempt to list out my core values and virtues
Last week a friend pressed upon me the importance of _writing your own culture_. It was a small part of a multi-hour conversation, and I'm not sure if I'm interpreted their meaning correctly, but the correct-seeming-to-me position I took from it was something like th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DwBrNpnGCEdNLbZeL/an-attempt-to-list-out-my-core-values-and-virtues |
# Ramifications of limited positive value, unlimited negative value?
_This assumes you've read some stuff on acausal trade, and various philosophical stuff on what is valuable from the sequences and elsewhere. If this post seems fundamentally confusing it's probably not asking for your help at this moment. If it seems... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cnBGXGSFGpfvknFc3/ramifications-of-limited-positive-value-unlimited-negative |
# On pointless waiting
I’ve often noticed in myself a tendency, if I am not doing something immediately engrossing, to find myself waiting.
Waiting, waiting, waiting, not really being present, just willing time to pass.
But the weird thing is, frequently there isn’t anything in particular that I’m waiting _for_. Get... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yJanLQZY4jfFk5KkM/on-pointless-waiting |
# Honors Fuel Achievement
_This is an excerpt from the draft of_ _[my upcoming book](http://samoburja.com/gft)_ _on great founder theory. It was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ _[access the original here.](http://samoburja.com/honors-fuel-achievement/)_
It is a cherished dream for many people to win a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pSzHo34PKk2aJtZD/honors-fuel-achievement |
# Get Rich Real Slowly
_Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/06/03/get-rich-real-slowly/)._
Some of you have read _[Get Rich Slowly](https://putanumonit.com/2017/02/10/get-rich-slowly/)_ and thought: no, this is not slow enough. The dizzying pace of 6-7% annual return is too much. You want mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p9PM2Wc3CSvLKRMwG/get-rich-real-slowly |
# Long Term Future Fund applications open until June 28th
The Long Term Future just reopened its applications. You can apply here:
**[Apply to the Long Term Future Fund](https://forms.gle/uvqAerU5zjAA6kay8)**
We will from now on have rolling applications, with a window of about 3-4 months between responses. The app... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MXiGuBiCu3NHaPHrG/long-term-future-fund-applications-open-until-june-28th-1 |
# Tal Yarkoni: No, it's not The Incentives—it's you
Neuroscientist Tal Yarkoni denounces many of his colleagues' tendency to appeal to publish-or-perish incentives as an excuse for sloppy science (October 2018, ~4600 words). Perhaps read as a complement to our [recent](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45mNHCMaZgsvfDXbw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5nH5Qtax9ae8CQjZ9/tal-yarkoni-no-it-s-not-the-incentives-it-s-you |
# MLU: New Blog!
I'm in the process of moving mindlevelup from Wordpress to a new static site hosted by Netlify. I like this because now I have more control over scripts and the visuals. It also finally puts into place my goal of having a place to have short/longform posts.
The plan is to slowly update posts and incr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uhtpGBKXdi7arBa8Q/mlu-new-blog |
# Let's talk about "Convergent Rationality"
**What this post is about:** I'm outlining some thoughts on what I've been calling "convergent rationality". I think this is an important core concept for AI-Xrisk, and probably a big crux for a lot of disagreements. **It's going to be hand-wavy!** It also ended up being a l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pLZ3bdeng4u5W8Yft/let-s-talk-about-convergent-rationality-1 |
# What kind of thing is logic in an ontological sense?
The existence of logic seems somewhat mysterious. It's this thing that seems to exist, but unlike other things that exist, it doesn't seem to exist anywhere in specific or in any tangible form. Further, while it is easy to mock Plato for mysticism when he posits p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXwCz2J4e2SGhaMQk/what-kind-of-thing-is-logic-in-an-ontological-sense-1 |
# Can we use ideas from ecosystem management to cultivate a healthy rationality memespace?
**Background: ecosystems management practices for improving community memespaces**
One can model individual human minds, as well as a community of minds, as an “ecosystem” of “memes”. These memes might be things like:
* Baye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaBoqddGarNjwDyZk/can-we-use-ideas-from-ecosystem-management-to-cultivate-a-1 |
# Some Ways Coordination is Hard
Response to (Raymond Arnold at Less Wrong): [The Schelling Choice is Rabbit, Not Stag](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zp5AEENssb8ZDnoZR/the-schelling-choice-is-rabbit-not-stag) and by implication Duncan’s [Open Problems in Group Rationality](https://medium.com/@ThingMaker/open-problem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6XfeAxBQw2sxvbTMR/some-ways-coordination-is-hard |
# Real-World Coordination Problems are Usually Information Problems
Let’s start with a few examples of very common real-world coordination problems.
* The marketing department at a car dealership posts ads for specific cars, but the salespeople don’t know which cars were advertised, causing confusion when a custome... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TqM6sfPuCX7ksjLoj/real-world-coordination-problems-are-usually-information |
# Storytelling and the evolution of human intelligence
This is a notice of a recent paper that may be of interest here, ["The storytelling arms race: origin of human intelligence and the scientific mind"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41437-019-0214-2) by Enrico Coen. It is a more specific working out of the [Machi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMBcDmMdCwJtXWrBs/storytelling-and-the-evolution-of-human-intelligence-1 |
# LessWrong FAQ
*This is a new FAQ written LessWrong 2.0. This is the first version and I apologize if it is a little rough. Please comment or message with further questions, typos, things that are unclear, etc.*
*The* [*old FAQ*](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/FAQ) *on the LessWrong Wiki still contains much excelle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rWKkWuPrgTMpLRbp/lesswrong-faq |
# Welcome to LessWrong!
| * The road to wisdom? Well, it's plain* * and simple to express:* * Err* * and err* * and err again* * but **less*** * and **less*** * and **less**.* – Piet Hein |
| --- |
LessWrong is an online forum and community dedicated to improving human reasoning and decision-making. We seek to hold t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bJ2haLkcGeLtTWaD5/welcome-to-lesswrong |
# Recommendation Features on LessWrong
Today, we're rolling out several new beta features on the home page, which display recommended posts to read. The first is a Continue Reading section: if you start reading a multi-post sequence, it will suggest that you read another post from that sequence. The second is a From t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PfceWjEqdRDvGkKZ8/recommendation-features-on-lesswrong-1 |
# Press Your Luck
Epistemic Status: Oh, we’re doing this.
Press Your Luck is back! Press Your Luck is back! Wednesday Nights on ABC! Woo-hoo!
The great classic game shows each bring together several unique elements into a synergistic whole with a consistent aesthetic and central theme. Each winning game has its own ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLxH8jsK73i7YGi9m/press-your-luck |
# The Univariate Fallacy
_(A standalone math post that I want to be able to link back to later/elsewhere)_
There's this statistical phenomenon where it's possible for two multivariate distributions to overlap along any one variable, but be cleanly separable when you look at the entire [configuration space](https://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cu7YY7WdgJBs3DpmJ/the-univariate-fallacy-1 |
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