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# [Answer] Why wasn't science invented in China?
_Credit for the question to Eli Tyre._
Preface + Epistemic Status
==========================
I spent roughly two days attempting to learn the answer this question plus several more writing it up. What is presented is more accurately described as a _partial answer_ or ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8SEvTvYFX2KDRZjti/answer-why-wasn-t-science-invented-in-china |
# Moral Weight Doesn't Accrue Linearly
This post: [https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/26/cortical-neuron-number-matches-intuitive-perceptions-of-moral-value-across-animals/](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/26/cortical-neuron-number-matches-intuitive-perceptions-of-moral-value-across-animals/)
begs a very important... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kespGxyo8WERZCctK/moral-weight-doesn-t-accrue-linearly |
# Many maps, Lightly held
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/many-maps-lightly-held/](http://bearlamp.com.au/many-maps-lightly-held/)
_Many maps, lightly held._
As described in [The fox and the hedgehog](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox), among other places ([munger](https://www.amazon.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uvkvccpaaLd4sKJLq/many-maps-lightly-held |
# Interview with Putanumonit
If you’ve ever wondered what Putanumonit will sound like as a podcast, wonder no more! An interview with me was recorded at a public meetup, it started with the basic tenets of rationality and putting numbers on things, then seamlessly segued to audience questions about Israel-Palestine an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ScXPapwfkAB3n25cx/interview-with-putanumonit |
# When is rationality useful?
In addition to my [skepticism about the foundations of epistemic rationality](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/suxvE2ddnYMPJN9HD/realism-about-rationality), I’ve long had doubts about the effectiveness of instrumental rationality. In particular, I’m inclined to attribute the successes of h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GMcohgWZLoHJ7D9G4/when-is-rationality-useful |
# Against Street Epistemology
According to [https://streetepistemology.com/publications/street\_epistemology\_the_basics](https://streetepistemology.com/publications/street_epistemology_the_basics) , street epistemology is a "conversational technique" which is intended to be "a more productive and positive alternative... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tb3mti2Y5znK5vs4L/against-street-epistemology |
# Strategic implications of AIs' ability to coordinate at low cost, for example by merging
It seems likely to me that AIs will be able to coordinate with each other much more easily (i.e., at lower cost and greater scale) than humans currently can, for example by merging into coherent unified agents by combining their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gYaKZeBbSL4y2RLP3/strategic-implications-of-ais-ability-to-coordinate-at-low |
# Asymmetric Justice
Related and required reading in life (ANOIEAEIB): [The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics](https://blog.jaibot.com/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics/)
Epistemic Status: Trying to be minimally judgmental
Spoiler Alert: Contains minor mostly harmless spoiler for [The Good Place](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YRgMCXMbkKBZgMz4M/asymmetric-justice |
# Speaking for myself (re: how the LW2.0 team communicates)
Posts made by members of the LessWrong 2.0 team are typically made from the perspective of the individual - _even when they are writing in their capacity as LessWrong team members_. My (Ruby’s) model of the team’s reason for this is that even if there are col... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjnJ6QJnpcpYbkYdj/speaking-for-myself-re-how-the-lw2-0-team-communicates |
# What's the best approach to curating a newsfeed to maximize useful contrasting POV?
In Superforecasters, Tetlock describes one superforecaster as having built a collection of automated scripts and sources to get useful information from a variety of different sources and different perspectives. This seems very useful... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kZZs7ad6WAcz7NEAW/what-s-the-best-approach-to-curating-a-newsfeed-to-maximize |
# 10 Good Things about Antifragile: a positivist book review
Although Taleb is "comically arrogant and kind of childish about his disagreements with others," here are 10 things I really appreciated about _Antifragile._
1) Sometimes I overstrategize how to formulate my thoughts and I get stuck never voicing them, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBB6xCfAsH6vMwq4F/10-good-things-about-antifragile-a-positivist-book-review |
# Counterspells
Back in the early days of the internet, when New Atheism was king, people would collect and catalogue various logical fallacies. Then, when getting into an argument on some forum, they would identify and call out all the logical fallacies being used by their opponent; Ad Hominem! Appeal to Emotion! Tu ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvi8Je7XpdHZAM2bY/counterspells |
# What are some good examples of incorrigibility?
The idea of corrigibility is roughly that an AI should be aware that it may have faults, and therefore allow and facilitate human operators to correct these faults. I'm especially interested in scenarios where the AI system controls a particular input channel that is s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/edi9Y4vYtdNRbui3u/what-are-some-good-examples-of-incorrigibility |
# [AN #54] Boxing a finite-horizon AI system to keep it unambitious
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXCX2S4NbcyEu7hbX/an-54-boxing-a-finite-horizon-ai-system-to-keep-it |
# Aging research and population ethics
This is the second of a series of posts in which I'm trying to build a framework to evaluate aging research. Previous post: [A general framework for evaluating aging research. Part 1: reasoning with Longevity Escape Velocity.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jYMdWskbrTW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxHJSWZDPc2ALtxD3/aging-research-and-population-ethics |
# Hull: An alternative to shell that I'll never have time to implement
Here's an idea. It's kind of crazy but it's also fun to think about.
Imagine a language which has every piece of its state stored in the filesystem.
Yes, I know it sounds weird but do read on!
### Datatypes
Let's say we do this:
`a = 1`
Wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ksF6QvdtkXtRXB456/hull-an-alternative-to-shell-that-i-ll-never-have-time-to |
# The Forces of Blandness and the Disagreeable Majority
There are a few data points that have been making me see “the discourse” differently lately.
**1\. Large Majorities Dislike Political Correctness.**
That’s the title of this [Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/large-majorities-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KHunHoNd2fckwaRxz/the-forces-of-blandness-and-the-disagreeable-majority |
# Recent updates to gwern.net (2017–2019)
> Previously: [2011](http://lesswrong.com/lw/8kv/recent_updates_to_gwernnet/)/[2012–2013](http://lesswrong.com/lw/h0b/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20122013/)/[2013–2014](http://lesswrong.com/lw/kgt/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20132014/)/[2014–2015](http://lesswrong.com/lw/mxn/rec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6q5Y3tTsiFY3c4iMf/recent-updates-to-gwern-net-2017-2019 |
# Rationality made me less bad at Mario Kart 8
Originally posted at <https://www.threemonkeymind.com/wgir/mario-kart/>.
“Rationality techiques helped me to become less bad at Mario Kart” isn’t the most compelling elevator pitch for reading [The Sequences][seq], but it illustrates the usefulness of reevaluating the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXXdiH9fLiWqR7QfA/rationality-made-me-less-bad-at-mario-kart-8 |
# Buying Value, not Price
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/04/13/buying-value-not-price/).
Follow-up to [Shopping for Happiness](https://putanumonit.com/2016/05/11/shopping-for-happiness/).
* * *
My old Galaxy smartphone recently gave up the ghost, and I upgraded to the new model for $75... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WuR7CQdAFJk4gpPYZ/buying-value-not-price |
# Pecking Order and Flight Leadership
It was recently pointed out to me that humans are weird, compared to other social animals, in that we conflate the _pecking order _with the _group decision-making process_.
The [pecking order](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pecking_order), for instance in birds, is literally the r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/934fcvQDM6XJhopLi/pecking-order-and-flight-leadership |
# Change A View: An interesting online community
I've recently stumbled across the platform Change A View, which is a subreddit that forked/graduated to its own website that is centered around the idea of people creating posts in which they ask to have their mind changed. This tends to create a frame that enables much... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Au94Ga7uebERWBNv8/change-a-view-an-interesting-online-community |
# Natural Structures and Conditional Definitions
There's a sense in which definitions are arbitrary. Words are made by humans and no-one can stop me from calling red blue and blue red if I really want to. So when people ask questions like, "What is consciousness?" or "What is free-will?", it seems quite reasonable to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/peCFP4zGowfe7Xccz/natural-structures-and-conditional-definitions |
# A quick map of consciousness
Original post: [http://bearlamp.com.au/a-quick-map-of-consciousness/](http://bearlamp.com.au/a-quick-map-of-consciousness/)
* * *
Prior knowledge: [Many maps lightly held](http://bearlamp.com.au/many-maps-lightly-held/), [Leaky concepts](http://bearlamp.com.au/leaky-concepts/), [Bounda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMnwQDYx97nEp53df/a-quick-map-of-consciousness |
# Has government or industry had greater past success in maintaining really powerful technological secrets?
Context: As part of our efforts of working on Open Questions the LessWrong team has been reaching out to various researchers we know and asked them about questions they would be interested in getting answered.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrDJQp7kL2YG4YByP/has-government-or-industry-had-greater-past-success-in |
# Nash equilibriums can be arbitrarily bad
# Go hungry with Almost Free Lunches
Consider the following game, called "Almost Free Lunches" (**EDIT**: this seems to be a variant of the [traveller dilemma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveler%27s_dilemma)). You name any pound-and-pence amount between £0 and £1,000,000... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jz5QoizH8HkQwWZ9Q/nash-equilibriums-can-be-arbitrarily-bad |
# Open Thread May 2019
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.
Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpFXfYbvQY5GhyqKL/open-thread-may-2019 |
# Swarm AI (tool)
[https://unanimous.ai/swarm/](https://unanimous.ai/swarm/)
I remember playing with this a while back, answering random questions. I guess now they've released it as a business tool for companies to run their own voting rooms.
Quick overview:
1) You create a room.
2) You invite 4-200 participants.
3... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vW24BnrpEsigEtxCn/swarm-ai-tool |
# Bay Summer Solstice 2019
_tldr: If you're coming, please [donate here](https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/8epJnHnejo). Suggested donation are sliding scale of $15 / $35 / $100 depending on financial situation. If you use facebook, [RSVP here](https://www.facebook.com/events/267521990851501/)._
* * *
We were hoping thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/cHxzEwzXQ8hyN5228/bay-summer-solstice-2019 |
# Self-confirming predictions can be arbitrarily bad
# Predicting perverse donors
There is a rich donor who is willing to donate up to £2,000,000 to your cause. They’ve already written a cheque for £1,000,000, but, before they present it to you, they ask you to predict how much they'll be donating.
The donor is slig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KoEY9CjrKe93ErYhd/self-confirming-predictions-can-be-arbitrarily-bad |
# Oracles, sequence predictors, and self-confirming predictions
My [counterfactual Oracle](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.05541) design uses a utility function/reward function in order to train it to give the right predictions. Paul Christiano asked whether the whole utility function approach was necessary, and whether it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2dNFgbjnqZBfeitT/oracles-sequence-predictors-and-self-confirming-predictions |
# The State of Affairs
Cross posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/04/30/the-state-of-affairs/).
* * *
The Modern Model
----------------
Marriage is a lot like physics – it runs into trouble when [a third body](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wKySaqFHpfzMTGmNx/the-state-of-affairs |
# Authoritarian Empiricism
(Excerpts from a conversation with my friend Mack, very slightly edited for clarity and flow, including getting rid of most of the metaconversation.)
Ben: Just spent 2 full days offline for the holiday - feeling good about it, I needed it.
Mack: Good!
Ben: Also figured out some stuff abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eiPyYDaGcHeJGP33k/authoritarian-empiricism |
# Totalitarian ethical systems
(Excerpt of another [conversation with my friend Mack](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eiPyYDaGcHeJGP33k/authoritarian-empiricism).)
Mack: Do you consider yourself an Effective Altruist (capital letters, aligned with at least some of the cause areas of the current _movement_, participat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eqyTwrSuQZs7p2njS/totalitarian-ethical-systems |
# [Meta] Hiding negative karma notifications by default
A few weeks ago we launched karma notifications, and I've been overall pretty happy with the feature. However, we and many other users noticed that while the current system treats upvotes and downvotes as symmetric, humans tend to definitely not perceive those tw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtEAZgc97fnCep2RL/meta-hiding-negative-karma-notifications-by-default |
# A Map of the Lesswrong-O-Sphere of Interest
It's clear to me that we on lesswrong operate on a pile of different interest areas. In my head I am doing a sorting method that divides topics. There's not just topics I (personally) like and topics I don't like but also many sub-topics within those. Here's a list of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGHBbALsfSA6BAFoo/a-map-of-the-lesswrong-o-sphere-of-interest |
# Dishonest Update Reporting
Related to: [Asymmetric Justice](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/04/25/asymmetric-justice/), [Privacy](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/03/15/privacy/), [Blackmail](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/02/19/blackmail/)
Previously (Paul Christiano): [Epistemic Incentives and Sluggish Upda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XKGPgNLjPbjSAwLiL/dishonest-update-reporting |
# Should Effective Altruism be at war with North Korea?
Summary: Political constraints cause supposedly objective technocratic deliberations to adopt frames that any reasonable third party would interpret as picking a side. I explore the case of North Korea in the context of nuclear disarmament rhetoric as an illustra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/naPsaBR3j73Lem4Y2/should-effective-altruism-be-at-war-with-north-korea |
# [AN #55] Regulatory markets and international standards as a means of ensuring beneficial AI
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZQJ9H9ZeRF8mjB2aF/an-55-regulatory-markets-and-international-standards-as-a |
# Gwern's "Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs: The Power of Agency"
I somehow hadn't read this post until now, so I am posting this here in case I am not the only one (and I wasn't able to find a previous linkpost for it). Relevant to relatively recent discussion on AI-as-a-service, but also just good as a broad refer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KxnGu8idv7tPEuqwx/gwern-s-why-tool-ais-want-to-be-agent-ais-the-power-of |
# A reckless introduction to Hindley-Milner type inference
*(I've been editing this post on and off for almost a year. I'm not really happy with it, but I suspect I never will be.)*
Note: the math formatting got lost in crossposting to LW. With the help of the mods, I've mostly cleared it up, but you may wish to read... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTS8K4NBSi9iyCrPo/a-reckless-introduction-to-hindley-milner-type-inference |
# The why and how of daily updates
In August 2018, my work colleague Tomo Kazahaya and I came up with the
idea of using GitHub issues to keep track of daily work checklists. We
created a private GitHub repository called `daily-updates`. In
October, I copied over the idea to managing personal checklists; you
can see [m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JvTM68yzurLzJ3Xua/the-why-and-how-of-daily-updates |
# How much do major foundations grant per hour of staff time?
_\[Edit: original source has been found. The way I framed this question was off, since I'd mis-remembered it as "amount that a given grantmaker grants per year" rather than "grants per hour of staff time". Updated the title\]_
I recall reading an article o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjtN4EY8K4mQ2jwuZ/how-much-do-major-foundations-grant-per-hour-of-staff-time |
# Building trusted third parties
How do two mutually distrusting entities(AGIs, space-faring societies, etc.) enact the results of a negotiated agreement when neither trusts the other? In cryptography there are Trusted third parties. This is a proposal for a protocol allowing them to be built.
This is done by having ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yT7G8jLGPusTgWjeC/building-trusted-third-parties |
# Blame games
In [Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/excerpts-from-a-larger-discussion-about-simulacra/), I worked through a well-known schema for distinguishing different relationships towards semantic reference, that are a natural result of interactions between shared-p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r2dTchodfqX4o5DYH/blame-games |
# Value learning for moral essentialists
Many people - people we want to persuade - are essentialists about morality and ethics. They give weight to the idea that just like how knowing facts about my shoes is possible because my shoes exist and interact with me, facts about what is right or good are possible because t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gPPduz7pTJHotuut6/value-learning-for-moral-essentialists |
# Hierarchy and wings
(Note for LessWrong: This is more overtly about partisan politics than the norm, but I think it's not _more_ about that than [The Two-Party Swindle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qAJgWCWJJkke4mE8x/the-two-party-swindle), from the Sequences, and it proposes a structural model that doesn't requir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkcvDuMLq9D2D6KjX/hierarchy-and-wings |
# How long can people be productive in [time period]?
I often see statistics that "people are only productive four hours/day", but they never seem to cite their sources. The studies I've tracked down are low quality ([example](https://www.vouchercloud.com/resources/office-worker-productivity)). 30 minutes poking aroun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pWiAuhBmWskgESM4R/how-long-can-people-be-productive-in-time-period |
# Space colonization: what can we definitely do and how do we know that?
Arguments for the value of the long-term future tend to make the assumption that we will colonize space. What can we definitely accomplish in terms of space colonization? Why think that we can definitely do those things?
The FHI paper, [Eternity... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NZiDAY9b4mZeRWbRc/space-colonization-what-can-we-definitely-do-and-how-do-we |
# Which parts of the paper Eternity in Six Hours are iffy?
The FHI paper, [Eternity in Six Hours](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/publications/armstrong-s-sandberg-a-2013-eternity-in-six-hours-intergalactic-spreading-of-intelligent-life-and-sharpening-the-fermi-paradox-acta-astronautica-89-1-13/), is very optimistic about wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k774aKEogcCugmKPY/which-parts-of-the-paper-eternity-in-six-hours-are-iffy |
# Towards optimal play as Villager in a mixed game
On Twitter, Freyja [wrote](https://twitter.com/utotranslucence/status/1113028181227786240):
> _Things capitalism is trash at:_
> _Valuing preferences of anything other than adults who earn money (i.e. future people, non-humans)_
> _Pricing non-standardisable good... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xWrLpxxHoLTWfQY3g/towards-optimal-play-as-villager-in-a-mixed-game |
# Models of Memory and Understanding
johnswentworth's post on [Declarative Mathematics](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MHL4zzzzuDMjYNX7v/declarative-mathematics) got me thinking about what different types of understanding/learning/memory feel like to me. In order to explain an initial confusion I had, I'm explicating... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWWADsWoMxSnnhKqi/models-of-memory-and-understanding |
# Coordination Surveys: why we should survey to organize responsibilities, not just predictions
_Summary:_ I think it’s important for surveys about the future of technology or society to check how people's predictions of the future depend on their beliefs about what actions or responsibilities they and others will tak... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lds9opZsAMbjuZp7h/coordination-surveys-why-we-should-survey-to-organize |
# Crypto quant trading: Naive Bayes
Previous post: [Crypto quant trading: Intro](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8MXx3fykQwHnpS7R/crypto-quant-trading-intro)
I didn't get requests for any specific subject from the last post, so I'm going in the direction that I find interesting and I hope the community will find int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjjYGCNXEhhcirp36/crypto-quant-trading-naive-bayes |
# Raleigh SSC/LW/EA Meetup - Meet MealSquares People
Romeo Stevens and I (both cofounders of MealSquares, a SSC sidebar advertiser) are visiting Raleigh/Durham and we're interested in meeting local people. Romeo is interested in contemplative practice and philosophy of science. John once won $2000 in the AI Alignmen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/nz2BaA37pa8Fkx7fL/raleigh-ssc-lw-ea-meetup-meet-mealsquares-people |
# Claims & Assumptions made in Eternity in Six Hours
This is a list of claims and assumptions made in the FHI paper, _[Eternity in Six Hours](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/publications/armstrong-s-sandberg-a-2013-eternity-in-six-hours-intergalactic-spreading-of-intelligent-life-and-sharpening-the-fermi-paradox-acta-astron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8WCPDk3RJ6SLP2ZuR/claims-and-assumptions-made-in-eternity-in-six-hours |
# Kissing Scars
Last year August 6th, I got in a horrible drone accident that destroyed the lens and iris in my left eye and left a scar running down my eye. For a couple months I could barely read, my working memory was horrible, energy levels were shot, and I was in so much pain, especially after surgeries.
Then a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxkvP4AbY8PYaDErM/kissing-scars |
# What Botswana Can Teach Us About Political Stability
US Army Africa/Botswana
*From my* [*article*](https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/09/what-botswana-can-teach-us-about-political-stability/) *first published on Palladium Magazine.*
It is h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yAKpKKynEzhtcS77j/what-botswana-can-teach-us-about-political-stability |
# Interpretations of "probability"
(_Written for Arbital in 2016._)
* * *
What does it _mean_ to say that a flipped coin has a 50% probability of landing heads?
Historically, there are two popular types of answers to this question, the "frequentist" and "[subjective](https://arbital.com/p/subjective_probability/)" ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhSL973CGivhDJ4DH/interpretations-of-probability |
# Tales From the American Medical System
Epistemic Status: Overheard in New York
I am walking and talking with my friend, a Type I Diabetic, when he receives a phone call from his doctor’s office.
As a Type I Diabetic, my friend needs insulin. The effects of not having insulin are very bad, and include death.
He ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EtHvKgkY7KpReDLyj/tales-from-the-american-medical-system |
# Training human models is an unsolved problem
**I**
We can’t write down our precise values any more than we can write down the algorithm we use for judging whether an image contains a cat. If we want an AI to abide by human values, it's going to have to acquire them without us writing them down. We usually think of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/upP8PYgHfXgvgh3FF/training-human-models-is-an-unsolved-problem |
# AI Forecasting online workshop
_I'm looking for volunteers to join me for_ _[a 1.5h online AI forecasting workshop](https://forms.gle/Q3uBVtezdgbJPc8z8)_.
**Why am I doing this?**
I’m working under [a BERI grant](http://existence.org/grants-database/) to use forecasting to support work on x-risk, together with Ben... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/wXBC4PMePfjKFFHYJ/ai-forecasting-online-workshop |
# Fear as fossil fuel
_Previous post: [Extraordinary ethics require extraordinary arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GjmfXBcgzxn33FoZ/extraordinary-ethics-require-extraordinary-arguments)_
_My blog entries are about a personal battle against depression and anxiety, from the point of view of someone who has b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oFdDponKRqo9uXrS5/fear-as-fossil-fuel |
# Correspondence visualizations for different interpretations of "probability"
(_Written for Arbital in 2016._)
* * *
[Recall](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhSL973CGivhDJ4DH/interpretations-of-probability) that there are three common interpretations of what it means to say that a coin has a 50% probability of lan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EyX2krxzAjgh5YCW9/correspondence-visualizations-for-different-interpretations |
# Where are the Benefits from Conversation?
_(epistemic status: fairly speculative)_
Recently, I've been thinking about where the main benefits of conversation lie, and I've come to some interesting early conclusions.
Most of the benefits of private conversations come from effects they have on the immediate particip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GW8CE4EGFtN9qco8S/where-are-the-benefits-from-conversation |
# Financial engineering for funding drug research
**Concept**
A group of people from MIT's Sloan School of Management have put together a proposal for using financial engineering to get across the valley of death in drug development. The pitch is, approximately, to securitize a batch of drugs, and then re-securitize ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cZfNYxd7BRbDb2gY4/financial-engineering-for-funding-drug-research |
# Disincentives for participating on LW/AF
I was in a research retreat recently with many AI alignment researchers, and found that the vast majority of them do not participate (post or comment) on LW/AF or participate to a much lesser extent than I would prefer. It seems important to bring this up and talk about wheth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xYav5gMSuQvhQHNHG/disincentives-for-participating-on-lw-af |
# Complex Behavior from Simple (Sub)Agents
*Epistemic Status: Simultaneously this is work that took me a long time and a lot of thought, and also a playful and highly speculative investigation. Consider taking this seriously but not literally.*
**Introduction**
Take a simple agent ([GitHub](https://github.com/moridi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pKXC62C98EgCeZc4/complex-behavior-from-simple-sub-agents |
# Rob B's Shortform Feed
This is a repository for miscellaneous short things I want to post. Other people are welcome to make top-level comments here if they want. (E.g., questions for me you'd rather discuss publicly than via PM; links you think will be interesting to people in this comment section but not to LW as a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HXyGXq9YmKdjqPseW/rob-b-s-shortform-feed |
# The Athena Rationality Workshop - June 7th-10th at EA Hotel
For the past few months, Matt Goldenberg has been in charge of teaching applied rationality at the EA hotel. And honestly, we’ve been quite impressed by the quality. Matt has been a great teacher, and some of us felt like we wanted to delve deeper into his ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/9PJQMwTuaEhEKkSgK/the-athena-rationality-workshop-june-7th-10th-at-ea-hotel |
# Probability interpretations: Examples
(_Written for Arbital in 2016._)
* * *
Betting on one-time events
--------------------------
Consider evaluating, in June of 2016, the question: "What is the probability of Hillary Clinton winning the 2016 US presidential election?"
On the **propensity** view, Hillary has so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xW9wGN9GN3guB9bZK/probability-interpretations-examples |
# Why books don't work
A look at how books are not optimal for conveying information. Analogies to lectures, with an interesting take on cognitive models, i.e. the assumptions you make about how learning happens. Also some interesting citations on average reading time and attention span.
I really like this piece beca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6SwmRb89mwcph3wL2/why-books-don-t-work |
# Narcissism vs. social signalling
The main thrust of [Robin Hanson's](https://www.overcomingbias.com/author/robin-hanson) work is that so much of human behaviour is the result of social signalling; that is, the attempt to convince others that we possess good qualities. On the other hand, [The Last Psychiatrist](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xC32LruScK8dbdwDw/narcissism-vs-social-signalling |
# "UDT2" and "against UD+ASSA"
I'm reposting some old posts that I originally sent to the "decision theory workshop" mailing list and the "[everything-list](http://www.weidai.com/everything.html)", because I occasionally want to reference these posts but the former mailing list is private and the latter one is public ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zd2DrbHApWypJD2Rz/udt2-and-against-ud-assa |
# The Geography of the Room — impact of position, orientation, and visibility on how often extraverts start conversations
_I write long-form articles about social interactions based on ~6 years of observational data. This particular piece is part of a longer sequence exploring why some people are frequently approached... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auWybBQhD5KEd3n4J/the-geography-of-the-room-impact-of-position-orientation-and |
# Tales from the Highway
Epistemic Status: Concrete data on how something works with curiosity as to the gears behind the decisions, and a desire to record exactly what happened for posterity so we have detailed accurate records and perhaps an example of some things. But no reason to think any of it is important, or y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mkz3koeL2u23HHwym/tales-from-the-highway |
# The Relationship Between the Village and the Mission
_Epistemic Status: Braindump, not as well thought out as I’d like._
_Previously:_
* _[Project Hufflepuff](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbdP8hD2AcKcdSsgF/project-hufflepuff-planting-the-flag)_
* _The [Archipelago Model of Community Standards](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGycR8tFA3JJbvApp/the-relationship-between-the-village-and-the-mission |
# Coherent decisions imply consistent utilities
(_Written for Arbital in 2017._)
* * *
Introduction to the introduction: Why expected utility?
=======================================================
So we're talking about how to make good decisions, or the idea of 'bounded rationality', or what sufficiently advance... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/coherent-decisions-imply-consistent-utilities |
# What are some "Communities and Cultures Different From Our Own?"
"[Legal Systems Different From Our Own](http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Course_Pages/legal_systems_very_different_12/LegalSystemsDraft.html)" is a fantastic work that explores how many different cultures approached legality. The diversity of ide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvrKSR2dJkKmvp8Es/what-are-some-communities-and-cultures-different-from-our |
# Ed Boyden on the State of Science
I just listened to Tyler Cowen's interview with Ed Boyden ([link and transcript](https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-ed-boyden-neuroscience-3907eccbd4ca)). The second half contained a lot of questions about current scientific infrastructure, and Boyden had a lot ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSP5FgEaz66kzCKzt/ed-boyden-on-the-state-of-science |
# Physical linguistics
This is really my attempt at approaching [eliminative materialism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliminative_materialism), and probably reading Paul Churchland or Daniel Dennett's papers would be better for you to get the point. I'm just writing to organize my thoughts.
### Background
There are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W5Hsyao2akgMdqtEd/physical-linguistics |
# Thinking Fast and Hard
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/05/07/thinking-fast-and-hard/).
Note: Yes, I know about Worm. No, I haven't read past the first quarter or so.
* * *
A cool superpower to have would be the ability to slow subjective time and get a lot of thinking done.
In every ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5imc9fN5xqpjcezzZ/thinking-fast-and-hard |
# Epistea Summer Experiment
ESE is a week-long experimental summer workshop combining elements of applied rationality and experiential education happening in Europe.
We will play, explore, introspect, practice - all in order to boost our learning. The program is focused on _group rationality_, or in other words: how ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/frt7aGb4uQDGeiMGQ/epistea-summer-experiment |
# How to improve at critical thinking on science/medical literature?
I'm a medical student, and I will often read articles that are critical of scientific literature ([Scott Alexander on Pharmacogenomics](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/06/antidepressant-pharmacogenomics-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/); [EMCrit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYQjpfu4YPckWrWkK/how-to-improve-at-critical-thinking-on-science-medical |
# Integrating disagreeing subagents
[In my previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJwJzeZ6ar2Hr7KAX/subagents-akrasia-and-coherence-in-humans), I suggested that akrasia involves subagent disagreement - or in other words, different parts of the brain having differing ideas on what the best course of action is. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hnLutdvjC8kPScPAj/integrating-disagreeing-subagents |
# Eight Books To Read
_This article was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ _[access the original here.](http://samoburja.com/eight-books-to-read/)_
A few years ago, I was asked by a friend what news sources they should follow to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fYRh8q49Puque75g9/eight-books-to-read |
# Boo votes, Yay NPS
TL;DR
=====
Many votes on LW are "boos" and "yays", and consequently they aren't very useful for determining what is worth reading. A modified version of a Net Promoter Score (NPS) on each post may provide a better metric for determining read worthiness.
Motivation
==========
It's come up a cou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZruTAjyxR8Tm3NPwS/boo-votes-yay-nps |
# Data Analysis of LW: Activity Levels + Age Distribution of User Accounts
_Epistemic: I rarely trust other people’s data analysis, I only half trust my own. Right now, analytics is only getting a slice of my attention and this work is not as thorough as I’d like, but I think the broad strokes picture is correct. I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9dA6GfuDca3Zh3RMa/data-analysis-of-lw-activity-levels-age-distribution-of-user |
# MIRI Summer Fellows Program
CFAR and MIRI are running our fifth annual MIRI Summer Fellows Program (MSFP) in the San Francisco Bay Area from August 9 to August 24, 2019.
MSFP is an extended retreat for mathematicians and programmers with a serious interest in making technical progress on the problem of AI alignme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/xFGQdgJndLcthgWoE/miri-summer-fellows-program |
# Emotional valence as cognition mutator (not a bug, but a feature)
Maybe because of my neurotype I view it important that I have good general way of handling things. I noticed a a pattern where people would process seemingly similar requests very differently and got curious whether there is an actual difference or ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/earsQcDuwAArRfWSN/emotional-valence-as-cognition-mutator-not-a-bug-but-a |
# Why I've started using NoScript
> Edit: I've updated somewhat based on Said's comment below, to think that NoScript is not a tool for everyone. I haven't decided to stop using it, but I have decided to stop strongly recommending that others use it. I especially urge you to read about the other extensions he lists at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwAA4y698dgbYfgeQ/why-i-ve-started-using-noscript |
# Feature Request: Self-imposed Time Restrictions
Hacker News has a feature called "noprocrast". Here's how they explain it in the [FAQ](https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html):
> **In my profile, what is noprocrast?**
> It's a way to help you prevent yourself from spending too much time on HN. If you turn it on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gxbfe5Tk3u9vAeEaP/feature-request-self-imposed-time-restrictions |
# How do you know it's time for a break?
My original question was something like "how much productive work can people do in a day?", but even if I got a signed piece of paper from God telling me the exact average, that wouldn't be very useful to individuals except as cover for stopping once they'd reached the average.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/riha4Pf2YNtr6EJM7/how-do-you-know-it-s-time-for-a-break |
# Kevin Simler's "Going Critical"
An interactive blogpost by Kevin Simler on network dynamics, with a final section on academia and intellectual progress. I generally think careful exploration of small-scale simulations like this can help quite well with understanding difficult topics, and this post seems like a quite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c4mw7fX8KL98Dt2AY/kevin-simler-s-going-critical |
# European Community Weekend 2019
From Friday August 30th to Monday 2nd September aspiring rationalists from across Europe and further afield will gather for 4 days of socializing, fun and intellectual exploration. There will be scheduled talks, but the majority of the content will be unconference style and participan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/8fzBPHx8aQjrBNRqg/european-community-weekend-2019 |
# Which scientific discovery was most ahead of its time?
Looking into the history of science, I've been struck by how continuous scientific progress seems. Although there are many examples of great intellectual breakthroughs, most of them build heavily on existing ideas which were floating around immediately beforehan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qz6KTt5z3eu4pyKZB/which-scientific-discovery-was-most-ahead-of-its-time |
# Offer of collaboration and/or mentorship
**UPDATE:** Offer of mentorship is closed, since I received sufficiently many candidates for now. Offer of collaboration remains open for experienced researchers (i.e. researchers that (i) have some track record of original math / theoretical compsci research, and (ii) are ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bSWavBThj6ebB62gD/offer-of-collaboration-and-or-mentorship |
# Announcing my YouTube channel
Social theory. Geopolitics. Power. New videos every week.
Recently I launched [a YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4QYBbgLkGaULStiC5yc_1Q). This channel provides another medium in which to share my though... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gzzDKvbKrc66T4KyN/announcing-my-youtube-channel |
# Yes Requires the Possibility of No
1\. A group wants to try an activity that really requires a lot of group buy in. The activity will not work as well if there is doubt that everyone really wants to do it. They establish common knowledge of the need for buy in. They then have a group conversation in which several p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G5TwJ9BGxcgh5DsmQ/yes-requires-the-possibility-of-no |
# Simulation Typology and Termination Risks
The main idea of the article is that we likely live in a “Fermi simulation”, that is, a simulation which is created by aliens to solve Fermi paradox via simulating possible global risks, or in a "Singularity simulation", – a simulation where future AI models its own origin (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RwF82CBEniiA3No45/simulation-typology-and-termination-risks |
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