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# Can indifference methods redeem person-affecting views?
My uninformed paraphrase/summary of "the person-affecting view" is: "classical utilitarianism + indifference to creating/destroying people".
These views seem problematic (e.g. see [Hillary Greeves interview on 80k)](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/hila... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/spPPnbZhNoTrZTdic/can-indifference-methods-redeem-person-affecting-views |
# An optimal stopping paradox
Consider an optimal stopping problem: a company at each time step grows by some constant, and has a certain probability of shutting down. You decide when to sell the company.
Since the math is cleaner in continuous time, we consider the continuous time. Then the company has a linearly in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HDzqaZXQCTXzScPh5/an-optimal-stopping-paradox |
# Platonic rewards, reward features, and rewards as information
Contrast these two expressions (hideously mashing C++ and pseudo-code):
1. $\operatorname{argmax}_x r(x)$,
2. $\operatorname{argmax}_x *(\&r)(x)$.
The first expression just selects the action $x$ that maximises $r(x)$ for some function $r()$, intended t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lb3xCRW9usoXJy9M2/platonic-rewards-reward-features-and-rewards-as-information |
# What I’ll be doing at MIRI
_Note: This is a personal post describing my own plans, not a post with actual research content._
Having finished my internship working with Paul Christiano and others at OpenAI, I’ll be moving to doing research at MIRI. I’ve decided to do research at MIRI because I believe MIRI will be t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptmmK9PWgYTuWToaZ/what-i-ll-be-doing-at-miri |
# Mosquito Net Fishing
I recently [saw](https://www.facebook.com/groups/effective.altruists/permalink/2612847068771634/) a study claiming:
> Distributed mosquito nets are intended to be used for malaria protection, yet increasing evidence suggests that fishing is a primary use for these nets, providing fresh concerns... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HmmFqMZ3mhwRaoDhz/mosquito-net-fishing |
# [AN #73]: Detecting catastrophic failures by learning how agents tend to break
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQqFNbvD5mYrCQPKE/an-73-detecting-catastrophic-failures-by-learning-how-agents |
# A Practical Theory of Memory Reconsolidation
Memory Reconsolidation is one candidate for a scientific of theory of "How to Actually Change Your Mind." In this post, I'll give a few fake frameworks about how memory reconsolidation works, in order to provide intuition pumps for the rest of the sequence.
Schemas as Be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fvSRv9qf7m4davwDi/a-practical-theory-of-memory-reconsolidation |
# Practical Guidelines for Memory Reconsolidation
This post details a set of guidelines for working with the memory reconsolidation tools in the rest of the sequence. Use it to get the most out of your memory reconsolidation procedure.
Start with the More Cognitively Fused Schema
-------------------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqp6TEjbtfcKjNTyx/practical-guidelines-for-memory-reconsolidation |
# The Hierarchy of Memory Reconsolidation Techniques
As discussed in the previous post, the aim is to start with the techniques that least challenge existing schema, and then work up the hierarchy to techniques that more strongly challenge the existing schema.
](http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/robin_hanson.jpg)
Robin Hanson
Robert Long and I recently talked to Robin Hanson—GMU economist, prolific [blogger](http://www.overcomingbias.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ktDKfKqukTPRiuEPM/robin-hanson-on-the-futurist-focus-on-ai |
# Instant stone (just add water!)
*Originally posted on The Roots of Progress, January 6, 2018*
From the time that humans began to leave their [nomadic ways](https://rootsofprogress.org/nomad-life) and live in settled societies about ten thousand years ago, we have needed to build structures: to shelter ourselves, to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qjsf4tS6Z4XQXCq2x/instant-stone-just-add-water-1 |
# [Link] John Carmack working on AGI
[John Carmack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack), confirmed GOAT video game developer, is going to take a crack at AGI.
[https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2547632585471243&id=100006735798590](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2547632585471... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/opmKgjxz6FmjwboZ9/link-john-carmack-working-on-agi |
# Autism And Intelligence: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
*\[Thanks to Marco G for proofreading and offering suggestions\]*
**I.**
Several studies have shown a genetic link between autism and intelligence; genes that contribute to autism risk also contribute to high IQ. But studies show autistic people generally ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q8zqoBWBBHD2RjDuS/autism-and-intelligence-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Three on Two: Temur Walkers, Elk Blade, Goblin Blade and Dino Blade
Remember: [Ban the London Mulligan](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/11/11/ban-the-london-mulligan/)
It all started when I faced an awful-seeming Temur deck that played a second turn The Royal Scions. It ended with a bunch of decks that use Arbore... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XMRv2sP6t7FhmTaGm/three-on-two-temur-walkers-elk-blade-goblin-blade-and-dino |
# Genesis
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/11/11/genesis/).
There a sense in which all posts I write are for myself, and not for my readers. In this sense, this post is more for myself than most.
Resolving reality i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCxf5dPmH8LAsHz2P/genesis |
# Arguing about housing
Somerville, like a lot of popular areas, has a problem that there are many more people who want houses than there are houses. In the scheme of things this is not a bad problem to have; mismatches in the other direction are probably worse. But it's still a major issue that is really hurting our ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKcziCqYNGxTr5oKs/arguing-about-housing |
# Books/Literature on resolving technical disagreements?
I've seen many books and schools of thought that seem to be about conflict resolution. Books like Crucial Conversations and Non-Violent Communication. There are multiple parties that want different things, there's strong emotional undertones/overtones, and these... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v9Y885tjas5nE8udT/books-literature-on-resolving-technical-disagreements |
# [LW Team] Request for User-Interviews about Tagging/Search/Wikis
**How to Sign Up**
------------------
If you're up for talking to me about your experience with or thoughts about tagging, please schedule a call: [**https://calendly.com/ruby_lesswrong**](https://calendly.com/ruby_lesswrong)
You don't have to have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2iEdz3BaAm6eYXsY9/lw-team-request-for-user-interviews-about-tagging-search |
# Reconsolidation Through Questioning
At this level, you're actively asking yourself questions about the correctness of the schema. You're not looking for any particular answers to these questions, or trying to get any result, you're simply [holding the questions](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/08/10/questions-are-no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hHyzPXWSZNKYXcfEJ/reconsolidation-through-questioning |
# [Math] Vision problems
TL;DR
=====
You can usually tell the difference between being stuck on something because you fundamentally don't get it, and being stuck on something because while you _do_ get it, you don't see the next step forward. This is called a vision problem.
After you notice you have a vision proble... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rf64gKBsSDmjFQCfk/math-vision-problems |
# [Personal Experiment] Counterbalancing Risk-Aversion
I am over-biased against risk. I usually take the safer option even when it's the wrong one. When I was 18 I stumbled across this paragraph.
> You must do everything that frightens you…Everything. I’m not talking about risking your life, but everything else. Thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f9b6EHPczz9i69HtY/personal-experiment-counterbalancing-risk-aversion |
# A Good Posture - Muscles & Self-Awareness.
(A version appears here: [What is a good posture](https://www.baselinehealing.com/discussion/good-posture-main-muscles-full-movement-base-line-core-pillar.php)?)
Posture = The position of your body.
=====================================
All of it.
------------
At any... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gfYdtiJXFXxGeLd9X/a-good-posture-muscles-and-self-awareness |
# Lazy Compost is Worse Than Landfill
Growing up we kept a compost pile. We'd keep food scraps in a bucket in the kitchen, and dump them into a fenced-in pile in the backyard along with yard waste. When that pile was full we'd start a new one, and after a year or two the old pile would have turned into dirt we could u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2eRE37Bun9TQBNnB/lazy-compost-is-worse-than-landfill |
# Hard to find factors messing up experiments: Examples?
In Richard Feynman's [talk](http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/3043/1/CargoCult.pdf) on cargo cults he mentions a story about experiments with rat mazes (skip if you recognize it)
> All experiments in psychology are not of this type, however. For example, th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dqmYgeQRp8DnpQMBZ/hard-to-find-factors-messing-up-experiments-examples |
# EA Forum AMA - MIRI's Buck Shlegeris
Buck Shlegeris is doing [an AMA on the Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tDk57GhrdK54TWzPY/i-m-buck-shlegeris-i-do-research-and-outreach-at-miri-ama):
> I'm going to do an AMA on Tuesday next week. Below I've written a brief description of what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iyaRN8umstFn6xo6d/ea-forum-ama-miri-s-buck-shlegeris |
# [Productivity] Task vs. time delimitation
_A draft from my personal-productivity journal._
TL;DR
=====
[A natural 2x2](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2015/02/25/the-mother-of-all-2x2s/) falls out when you organize tasks by how clear you are on their start/end times (or the amount of time they'll actually take), and ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Foi6mmbkWj6QBLWsP/productivity-task-vs-time-delimitation |
# Matthew Walker's "Why We Sleep" Is Riddled with Scientific and Factual Errors
This was one of the most thought-provoking posts I read this month. Mostly because I spent a really large number of hours of my life sleeping, and also significantly increased the amount that I've been sleeping over the past three years, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rJK96E83k2wbL6sz6/matthew-walker-s-why-we-sleep-is-riddled-with-scientific-and |
# AGI safety and losing electricity/industry resilience cost-effectiveness
Cross posted on Effective Altruism Forum [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XA8QSCL7wZ973i6vr/agi-safety-and-losing-electricity-industry-resilience-cost](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XA8QSCL7wZ973i6vr/agi-safety-and-losing-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qkvk22oc3YeEJpEfC/agi-safety-and-losing-electricity-industry-resilience-cost |
# How common is it for one entity to have a 3+ year technological lead on its nearest competitor?
I'm writing a follow-up to my [blog post on soft takeoff and DSA](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PKy8NuNPknenkDY74/soft-takeoff-can-still-lead-to-decisive-strategic-advantage), and I am looking for good examples of tech ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXikQ87FFw3oPPaYh/how-common-is-it-for-one-entity-to-have-a-3-year |
# Do we know if spaced repetition can be used with randomized content?
Disclaimer: there may be major flaws in the way I use words. [Corrections are welcome.][crocker's rules]
---
Suppose I want to memorize all the [software design patterns].
I could use [spaced repetition] and create a new deck of flashcards. Each... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y9dKJ5SMQwLatHM5o/do-we-know-if-spaced-repetition-can-be-used-with-randomized |
# The Power to Draw Better
**This is Part X of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
Cats notoriously get stuck in trees because their claws are better at climbing up than down. Throughout this sequence, we’ve seen how humans are similar: W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEnbSj9PaJbnLc2Eh/the-power-to-draw-better |
# Impossible moral problems and moral authority
_[The Tails Come Apart As Metaphor For Life](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/09/25/the-tails-coming-apart-as-metaphor-for-life/), but with an extra pun._
Suppose you task your friends with designing the Optimal Meal. The meal that maximizes utility, in virtue of its per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pW6YJEzoRFe9cshuN/impossible-moral-problems-and-moral-authority |
# Comment, Don't Message
Most of the time, when people have responses to my posts they write them as comments. Sometimes, however, they email or send messages. Since I strongly prefer comments I wanted to write some about why.
A discussion we have in comments will be open to people other than the two of us. People wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SJhsQfdJSxbJzaewq/comment-don-t-message |
# In Defense of Kegan
_NB: Originally published on Map and Territory on Medium. This is an old post originally published on 2016-09-10. It was never previously cross-posted or linked on LessWrong, so I'm adding it now for posterity. It's old enough that I can no longer confidently endorse it, and I won't bother trying... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bCuzJyrzDttQTvmE/in-defense-of-kegan |
# Internalizing Existentialism
_NB: Originally published on Map and Territory on Medium. This is an old post originally published on 2016-09-18. It was never previously cross-posted or linked on LessWrong, so I'm adding it now for posterity. It's old enough that I can no longer confidently endorse it, and I won't both... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6EvqRrn5MPueavBMD/internalizing-existentialism |
# The Value Definition Problem
How to understand non-technical proposals
=========================================
This post grew out of conversations at EA Hotel, Blackpool about how to think about the various proposals for ‘solving’ AI Alignment like CEV, iterated amplification and distillation or ambitious val... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W95gbuognJu5WxkTW/the-value-definition-problem |
# The new dot com bubble is here: it’s called online advertising
If you want to understanding [Goodharting](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart-taxonomy) in advertising, this is a great article for that.
At the heart of the problems in online advertising is selection effects, which the article ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/icPvmaB4fBxy7Divt/the-new-dot-com-bubble-is-here-it-s-called-online |
# Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Aren't Always About Self-Awareness
This is a belated follow-up to my [Dualist Predict-O-Matic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RmPKdMqSr2xRwrqyE/the-dualist-predict-o-matic-usd100-prize) post, where I share some thoughts re: what could go wrong with the dualist Predict-O-Matic.
# Belief i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yArZKCEheZt8GkK6p/self-fulfilling-prophecies-aren-t-always-about-self |
# The Goodhart Game
>In this paper, we argue that adversarial example defense papers have, to date, mostly considered abstract, toy games that do not relate to any specific security concern. Furthermore, defense papers have not yet precisely described all the abilities and limitations of attackers that would be releva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnPEe99YuyRxktMD3/the-goodhart-game |
# Cybernetic dreams: Beer's pond brain
"Cybernetic dreams" is my mini series on ideas from cybernetic research that has yet to fulfill their promise. I think there are many cool ideas in cybernetics research that has been neglected and I hope that this series brings them more attention.
Cybernetics is a somewhat hard... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBbcKg5AeX3tot3cC/cybernetic-dreams-beer-s-pond-brain |
#
Austin meetup notes Nov. 16, 2019: SSC discussion
The following is a writeup (pursuant to [Mingyuan's proposal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TBbPTBdApovxhM7NC/meetups-as-institutions-for-intellectual-progress#Proposal__Monetary_incentives_for_write_ups)) of the discussion at the [Austin LW/SSC Meetup](https://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RiqjJBcBFtXAPBzXd/austin-meetup-notes-nov-16-2019-ssc-discussion |
# Drawing on Walls
When I [started](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bathroom-plans) the [bathroom](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bathroom-construction-update) [project](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bathroom-is-usable) there was a lot of reason to move quickly: the bathroom wouldn't be usable while I was working on it, and the back be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YeLqDbXRRgjpmRKd6/drawing-on-walls |
# How I do research
_Someone asked me about this, so here are my quick thoughts._
Although I've learned a lot of math over the last year and a half, it still isn't my comparative advantage. What I do instead is,
## Find a problem
that seems plausibly important to AI safety (low impact), or a phenomenon that's secre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e3Db4w52hz3NSyYqt/how-i-do-research |
# Wrinkles
Why does our skin form wrinkles as we age?
This post will outline the answer in a few steps:
* Under what conditions do materials form wrinkles, in general?
* How does the general theory of wrinkles apply to aging human skin?
* What underlying factors drive the physiological changes which result in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QigLMhiuMA7vKFnww/wrinkles |
# Affordable Housing Workarounds
After reading some about how affordable housing is actually implemented, it looks to me like rich people could exploit it to avoid paying property and inheritance taxes, and generally get around the means testing requirements.
Affordable housing is about renting or selling homes well ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnuLRnT82ehgMBxm6/affordable-housing-workarounds |
# [AN #74]: Separating beneficial AI into competence, alignment, and coping with impacts
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2fRsTjd2kQ89pipE/an-74-separating-beneficial-ai-into-competence-alignment-and |
# Doxa, Episteme, and Gnosis Revisited
Exactly two years to the day I started writing this post I published [Map and Territory's](https://mapandterritory.org/) most popular post of all time, "[Doxa, Episteme, and Gnosis](https://mapandterritory.org/doxa-episteme-and-gnosis-ea35e4408edd)" ([also here on LW](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKyvibvccetFyBqtp/doxa-episteme-and-gnosis-revisited |
# Junto: Questions for Meetups and Rando Convos
I ponder a lot about community and how important local community is for the functioning of society; many are the riches brought from afar by long distance communication. Nonetheless, local rationality meetups can increase local metis by generating intelligent community. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pW2p5synCNCT6HQaa/junto-questions-for-meetups-and-rando-convos |
# The LessWrong 2018 Review
LessWrong is currently doing a major review of 2018 — looking back at old posts and considering which of them have stood the tests of time. It has three phases:
* Nomination *(ends Dec 1st at 11:59pm PST)*
* Review *(ends Dec 31st)*
* Voting on the best posts *(ends January 7th)*
Au... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXwmMkEBLL59NkvYR/the-lesswrong-2018-review |
# A Brief Intro to Domain Theory
So, domain theory is a fairly abstract branch of math which is about giving semantics to weird recursive constructions in computer science, in the form of partially ordered sets with additional structure. I'm still learning the parts of it which regard building a link to explicit compu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4C4jha5SdReWgg7dF/a-brief-intro-to-domain-theory |
# Defining AI wireheading
What does it mean for an AI to wirehead its reward function? We're pretty clear on what it means for a human to [wirehead](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Wireheading) - artificial stimulation of part of the brain rather than genuine experiences - but what does it mean for an AI?
We have a l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vXzM5L6njDZSf4Ftk/defining-ai-wireheading |
# Hybrid Lottery Update
[Beantown Stomp](https://beantownstomp.com) has been open for registration for a bit over a week, and we have 122 people registered. In our announcement we said we would run a lottery for the remaining tickets if we had 150 registrations in the first week, and we didn't, so we're going to stay ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oB4dk6cGddL32iPdc/hybrid-lottery-update |
# Historical forecasting: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a certain date?
Suppose I wanted to get good intuitions about how the world works on historical timescales.
I could study history, but just reading history is rife with historical [hindsight bias](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fkM9XsNvX... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dm8zWxjpNdTAGAnLh/historical-forecasting-are-there-ways-i-can-get-lots-of-data |
# Do you get value out of contentless comments?
[Some people](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXwmMkEBLL59NkvYR/the-lesswrong-2018-review#KzdGpuQmKf2TSHW9u) like to receive comments of the form "Good post!", even when these comments contain no other engagement with the post. If you post on LW, I'd like to know (a) whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvKvqb78Se9DFf5db/do-you-get-value-out-of-contentless-comments |
# Relevance Norms; Or, Gricean Implicature Queers the Decoupling/Contextualizing Binary
**Reply to:** [Decoupling vs Contextualising Norms](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7cAsBPGh98pGyrhz9/decoupling-vs-contextualising-norms)
Chris Leong, [following John Nerst](https://everythingstudies.com/2018/04/26/a-deep-dive-in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GSz8SrKFfW7fJK2wN/relevance-norms-or-gricean-implicature-queers-the-decoupling |
# Analysing: Dangerous messages from future UFAI via Oracles
The user [cousin_it](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/cousin_it) has [pointed out a problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai?commentId=LerH5iZbafJeh2Cs7) with the [counterfactual Ora... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6WbLRLdmTL4JxxvCq/analysing-dangerous-messages-from-future-ufai-via-oracles |
# Ultra-simplified research agenda
This is an ultra-condensed version of the [research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into) on synthesising human preferences (video version [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M9CvESSeVc)):
In order... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m2bwD87ctjJDXC3SZ/ultra-simplified-research-agenda |
# What makes a good life? This is my map.
What is the good life? Probably one of the most important questions we have to ask. Science is moving closer to answering it. This post is a map of what I believe makes a good life. I'm putting it here for you to critique, to hear and maybe it inspires some useful introspectio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ci4etKqPErdknFJXD/what-makes-a-good-life-this-is-my-map |
# Solar One Year In
Last fall we had solar panels installed. Our roof is pretty marginal for solar, large parts blocked by trees and the remainder mostly facing West, but incentives were high enough that it looked decent. And even if it only broke even I still liked it for the [resiliency advantages](https://www.jefft... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gQYiDbWvyKK4Hhokv/solar-one-year-in |
# Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
Mazes
-----
The usual method to solve a maze is some variant of [babble-and-prune](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i42Dfoh4HtsCAfXxL/babble): try a path, if it seems to get closer to the exit then keep going, if it hits a dead end then go back and try another path. It's a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEBbw2Bc2CnN2RMxy/gears-level-models-are-capital-investments |
# Market Rate Food Is Luxury Food
We're in the middle of a major food crisis. It is so expensive that people have little left for shelter, clothing, or other necessities. We cannot let this continue, but that doesn't mean every proposal is a good one. Specifically, I want to address the extreme position of eliminating... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pg9JvLuALa47Wbios/market-rate-food-is-luxury-food |
# Thoughts on Robin Hanson's AI Impacts interview
There was already a LessWrong Post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ktDKfKqukTPRiuEPM/robin-hanson-on-the-futurist-focus-on-ai). I started writing this as a comment there, but it got really long, so here we are! For convenience, [here is the link to interview tra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6AzbZR7ZQxWuAwKR/thoughts-on-robin-hanson-s-ai-impacts-interview |
# New MetaEthical.AI Summary and Q&A at UC Berkeley
Previous Intro: [Formal Metaethics and Metasemantics for AI Alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85vp2kgFZoycFqr5G/formal-metaethics-and-metasemantics-for-ai-alignment-1)
I’m nearing the completion of a hopefully much more readable version of the ideas previ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YAd4NieT4iq6uY8AS/new-metaethical-ai-summary-and-q-and-a-at-uc-berkeley |
# Hard Problems in Cryptocurrency: Five Years Later - Buterin
Many rationalists are interested in blockchain. This article describes important mathematical problems related to blockchain, and potential solutions to cooperation problems and philanthropy via mechanism design (quadratic voting, quadratic funding). | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bZ5WW8Qmm3K2f2dq5/hard-problems-in-cryptocurrency-five-years-later-buterin |
# RAISE post-mortem
_Edit November 2021: there is now the [Cambridge AGI Safety Fundamentals course](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpAKCeGMtQqqty9ZJ/agi-safety-fundamentals-curriculum-and-application), which promises to be successful. It is enlightening to compare this project with RAISE. Why is that one s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oW6mbA3XHzcfJTwNq/raise-post-mortem |
# Explaining why false ideas spread is more fun than why true ones do
As typical for a discussion of memes (of the Richard Dawkins variety), I'm about to talk about something completely unoriginal to me, but that I've modified to some degree after thinking about it.
The thesis is this: there's a tendency for people t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bfFPHje8djdBFGaog/explaining-why-false-ideas-spread-is-more-fun-than-why-true |
# Can you eliminate memetic scarcity, instead of fighting?
*tl;dr: *If you notice yourself fighting over how to tradeoff between two principles, check if you can just sidestep the problem by giving everyone tons of whatever is important to them (sometimes in a different form than they originally wanted).
Not a new c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wf3dS9CKz2Lpc4mcq/can-you-eliminate-memetic-scarcity-instead-of-fighting |
# Breaking Oracles: superrationality and acausal trade
I've always known this was the case in the back of my mind[^cous], but it's worth making explicit: [superrationality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superrationality) (ie a functional UDT) and/or acausal trade will break [counterfactual and low-bandwidth oracle](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/42z4k8Co5BuHMBvER/breaking-oracles-superrationality-and-acausal-trade |
# Antimemes
Antimemes are self-keeping secrets. You can only perceive an antimeme if you already know it's there. Antimemes don't need a conspiracy to stay hidden because you can't comprehend an antimeme just by being told it exists. You can [shout them to the heavens](http://www.paulgraham.com/avg.html) and nobody wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tue36NPoMY2AXs3jW/antimemes |
# My Anki patterns
_Cross-posted from [my website](http://agentydragon.com/posts/2019-11-25-my-anki-patterns.html)._
I’ve used Anki for ~3 years, have 37k cards and did 0.5M reviews. I have learned some useful heuristics for using it effectively. I’ll borrow software engineering terminology and call heuristics for “w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mmk9tdFm8wcRvazva/my-anki-patterns |
# Curtis Yarvin on A Theory of Pervasive Error
(_Content warning_: [politics](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9weLK2AJ9JEt2Tt8f/politics-is-the-mind-killer). Read with caution, as always.)
Curtis Yarvin, a computer programmer perhaps most famous as the principal author of the [Urbit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jPb9v4oprTpfTbNC3/curtis-yarvin-on-a-theory-of-pervasive-error |
# Is daily caffeine consumption beneficial to productivity?
Caffeine raises human alertness by binding to adenosine receptors in the human brain. It prevents those receptors from binding adenosine and suppressing activity in the central nervous system.
Regular caffeine productions seems to result in the body building... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJpyvTue4fs5xgC39/is-daily-caffeine-consumption-beneficial-to-productivity |
# Thoughts on implementing corrigible robust alignment
# Background / Context
As context, here's an pictorial overview of (part of) AI alignment.
Starting from the top:
I split possible AGIs into those that do [search/selection-type optimization](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8W5gNgEKnyAscg8BF/thoughts-on-implementing-corrigible-robust-alignment |
# A test for symbol grounding methods: true zero-sum games
Imagine there are two AIs playing a [debate game](https://openai.com/blog/debate/). The game is zero-sum; at the end of the debate, the human judge assigns the winner, and that AI gets a $+1$ reward, while the other one gets a $-1$.
Except the game, as descri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JpEPKbXiTvmyqYdTr/a-test-for-symbol-grounding-methods-true-zero-sum-games-1 |
# Effect of Advertising
I've recently had several conversations around whether advertising is harmful, and specifically whether ads primarily work by tricking people into purchasing things they don't need. One way to think about this is, what would the world would be like if we didn't allow advertising? No internet ad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y374EGeNhKYnBFNhC/effect-of-advertising |
# 3 Cultural Infrastructure Ideas from MAPLE
About six months ago, I moved to the [Monastic Academy](https://monasticacademy.com) in Vermont. MAPLE for short.
You may have curiosities / questions about what that is and why I moved there. But I'll save that for another time.
I was having a conversation last week abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMYx7tq3dpsQdBRGr/3-cultural-infrastructure-ideas-from-maple |
# Could someone please start a bright home lighting company?
Elevator pitch: Bring enough light to simulate daylight into your home and office.
This idea has been shared in Less Wrong circles for a couple years. Yudkowsky wrote [Inadequate Equilibria][1] in 2017 where he and his wife invented the idea, and [Raemon wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koRZu53LBZEapwww6/could-someone-please-start-a-bright-home-lighting-company |
# Mental Mountains
**I.**
Kaj Sotala has [an outstanding review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9xyZBS3qzA8nFXNQ/book-summary-unlocking-the-emotional-brain) of [*Unlocking The Emotional Brain*](https://www.amazon.com/Unlocking-Emotional-Brain-Eliminating-Reconsolidation/dp/0415897173/ref=as_li_ss_tl?crid=SHAZ1QSYKI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JJFphYfMsdFMuprBy/mental-mountains |
# Intelligence Rising
This time around in LessWrong Tel Aviv, we are going to play "Intelligence Rising"!
Intelligence Rising is a Strategic Role-Playing game meant to effectively simulate and illustrate the possible paths by which artificial intelligence capabilities and risks might take in the world. It is designed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/QvbD8an2psaRaLGwc/intelligence-rising |
# [AN #75]: Solving Atari and Go with learned game models, and thoughts from a MIRI employee
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NSCBF7MTLF2HdhEnD/an-75-solving-atari-and-go-with-learned-game-models-and |
# Getting Ready for the FB Donation Match
Facebook is again going to be [matching donations on Giving Tuesday](https://www.facebook.com/help/332488213787105):
* $7M total
* $20k max per donor
* $100k max per organization
* First-come first-served
* Processing fees covered by FB
* 8AM Eastern, Tuesday 12/3... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XMMMnLP8LY65cwpnN/getting-ready-for-the-fb-donation-match |
# Updating a Complex Mental Model - An Applied Election Odds Example
There are probabilities, and there are probabilities about probabilities. How do these get updated? I've had the same discussion several times, and have tried to describe this, but it is hard without going into the math. The formal model is clear, bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ey3Hbya63H2L974qZ/updating-a-complex-mental-model-an-applied-election-odds |
# SSC Meetups Everywhere Retrospective
Slate Star Codex has regular weekly-to-monthly meetups in a bunch of cities around the world. Earlier this autumn, we held [a Meetups Everywhere event](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/28/meetups-everywhere-2019/), hoping to promote and expand these groups. We collected informa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5je5Zht8ept7hZmRJ/ssc-meetups-everywhere-retrospective |
# What are the requirements for being "citable?"
A sort of... "stretch goal", for the 2018 Review, is developing a system wherein LessWrong has proven itself credible enough for some posts to actually be citable by other institutions.
I'm not sure how much of this has to do with "just actually do a good job ensuring ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J92QH88nPQTbPskkK/what-are-the-requirements-for-being-citable |
# Order and Chaos
Follows from:
[Map and Territory](https://www.lesswrong.com/rationality)
[Babble and Prune](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pC6DYFLPMTCbEwH8W)
**Warning**: I strongly recommend **not** using the concepts in this sequence to try and build a generalized artificial intelligence. These concepts describe h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QgYWrqrFoT7XJiFTT/order-and-chaos |
# Neural Annealing: Toward a Neural Theory of Everything (crosspost)
_The following is QRI's unified theory of music, meditation, psychedelics, depression, trauma, and emotional processing. Implications for how the brain implements Bayesian updating, and future directions for neuroscience. Crossposted from [http://ope... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zcYJBTGYtcftxefz9/neural-annealing-toward-a-neural-theory-of-everything |
# Useful Does Not Mean Secure
*Brief summary of what I'm trying to do with this post:*
1. *Contrast a “Usefulness” focused approach to building AI with a “Security” focused approach, and try to give an account of where security problems come from in AI.*
2. *Show how marginal transparency improvements don’t necessa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mdau2DBSMi5bWXPGA/useful-does-not-mean-secure |
# Experimental Design Club
Measuring things is super valuable [citation needed] and fun [citation needed]! But it's also difficult (see: replication crisis). Let's get together and design some experiments we can run!
No need to have attended the first iteration of Experimental Design Club! This will likely be an even... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/kQkkhkMvjkwsdvhta/experimental-design-club |
# Counterfactuals as a matter of Social Convention
In my [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5CJZ566Pj3AwfrBT/open-box-newcomb-s-problem-and-the-limitations-of-the), I wrote that the counterfactuals in Transparent-Box Newcomb's problem were largely a matter of social convention. One point I overlooked for a l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9rtWTHsPAf2mLKizi/counterfactuals-as-a-matter-of-social-convention |
# How To Change a Dance
Let's say you don't like something about your local dance. Perhaps you'd like to see gender free calling, a different approach to booking bands, a new kind of special event, or something else. How can you make this happen?
The best case is that you talk to the organizers, they say "what a grea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AnkJbcC54pr3RLeMH/how-to-change-a-dance |
# CO2 Stripper Postmortem Thoughts
**\[EDIT: A crucial consideration was pointed out in the comments. For all the designs I've looked at, it's cheaper to just get a heat exchanger and ventilation fans, and blow the air outside/pull it inside and eat the extra heating costs/throw on an extra layer of clothing, than it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G4uMdBzgDsxMsTNmr/co2-stripper-postmortem-thoughts |
# Epistemic Spot Check: Fatigue and the Central Governor Module
[Epistemic spot checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/) used to be a series in which I read papers/books and investigated their claims with an eye towards assessing the work’s credibility. I became [unhappy with the limitations of thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/foFqkEttFb7fCj9cp/epistemic-spot-check-fatigue-and-the-central-governor-module |
# Why aren't assurance contracts widely used?
A priori, [dominant assurance contracts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract) seem like awesome tools for solving a fairly broad range of collective action problems. Why aren't they used much? Or is it just that they are a new idea and we should expect them to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oCQnvGvArxTSzEwty/why-aren-t-assurance-contracts-widely-used |
# Bay Area Winter Solstice 2019
**tl;dr buy a ticket at https://bay-area-winter-solstice-2019.secretparty.io/**
Gather with us in a planetarium in the Oakland hills. Huddle and sing against the encroaching cold and dark. Share warmth and light. Together we will celebrate humanity and the things that matter to us, thr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Fpaa7hNb8RhdLS9Jj/bay-area-winter-solstice-2019 |
# Pre-Solstice Unconference 2019
This unconference is a gathering of the rationalist and effective altruist communities, held the day before Bay Area Secular Solstice.
Think something like the New York megameetup: if a bunch of us are all going to be around during Solstice weekend, why not also take the excuse to han... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/koaQqZLaTP3NoCFNA/pre-solstice-unconference-2019 |
# {Math} A times tables memory.
I have a distinct memory of being 8 years old, or so, and being handed one of those worksheets where they ask you to multiply numbers up through 12x12, and being viscerally disgusted by the implied pedagogy of it. That was _over a hundred things_ you were asking me to memorize. On _my o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uT4vjL7Pw3DM94iwy/math-a-times-tables-memory |
# Vocal Range
I'm organizing another [secular solstice](https://www.facebook.com/events/2757426844297175/), which has me thinking about where to pitch songs so the most people will feel comfortable. I found several people saying that range of C to C generally works well with untrained voices, and if they had said some... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDYQpqbiLYhyynkRC/vocal-range |
# Two Bay Area Winter Solstice Events
Happy December, everyone! This year, the Bay Area Winter Solstice organizers have two events on offer for you to enjoy. Hope to see you there!
Pre-Solstice Unconference, 2019
===============================
_Saturday, December 14, 2019_
Want to spend some time socializing with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sgowk9ySgX5RYCsGs/two-bay-area-winter-solstice-events |
# The history of smallpox and the origins of vaccines
> Smallpox was one of the worst diseases in human history. It killed an estimated 300 million people or more in the 20th century alone; only tuberculosis and malaria have been more deadly. Its victims were often children, even infants.
>
> It is also, among disea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qSBiYpbDFzNeAZYJw/the-history-of-smallpox-and-the-origins-of-vaccines |
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