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# Weighting Attachment in Relationship Decisions
# Background
tl;dr - skip to [Weighting Attachment](#Weighting_Attachment)
## My Dating Models
When I first set up an online dating profile, I remember noting that the experience of browsing matches felt a lot like shopping on Amazon. You compare the specs of the dif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x7NjHtBmk7RD6Cvc9/weighting-attachment-in-relationship-decisions |
# A critical agential account of free will, causation, and physics
This is an account of free choice in a physical universe. It is very much relevant to decision theory and philosophy of science. It is largely metaphysical, in terms of taking certain things to be basically real and examining what can be defined in ter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dvaCebTNc2tfMDcxS/a-critical-agential-account-of-free-will-causation-and |
# Feature suggestion: Could we get notifications when someone links to our posts?
LessWrong (and the EA Forum) seems to have recently added a “pingbacks” feature, which shows at the bottom of each post what other posts on LW (or the EA Forum) link to it, if any. I reckon this is a great feature, for:
1. following li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jbZP8yY22vHk5Ry9q/feature-suggestion-could-we-get-notifications-when-someone |
# Simulacra and Subjectivity
In [Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/excerpts-from-a-larger-discussion-about-simulacra/), following Baudrillard, Jessica Taylor and I laid out a model of simulacrum levels with something of a fall-from grace feel to the story:
1. First, wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fEX7G2N7CtmZQ3eB5/simulacra-and-subjectivity |
# Interfaces as a Scarce Resource
Outline:
* The first three sections (Don Norman’s Fridge, Interface Design, and When And Why Is It Hard?) cover what we mean by “interface”, what it looks like for interfaces to be scarce, and the kinds of areas where they tend to be scarce.
* The next four sections apply these i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hyShz2ABiKX56j5tJ/interfaces-as-a-scarce-resource |
# When are immunostimulants/immunosuppressants likely to be helpful for COVID-19?
My aging parents live in Santa Clara County and have a relatively fatalistic attitude towards COVID-19 exposure. But they seem open to taking supplements. So I'm trying to figure out what to recommend.
[This 2017 post](https://srconst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzT7GT8ec2deE8JAi/when-are-immunostimulants-immunosuppressants-likely-to-be |
# Subjective implication decision theory in critical agentialism
This is a follow-up to a [previous post](https://unstableontology.com/2020/03/05/a-critical-agential-account-of-free-will-causation-and-physics/) on critical agentialism, to explore the straightforward decision-theoretic consequences. I call this subject... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7jGT7uyf56TGjeba/subjective-implication-decision-theory-in-critical |
# Post/Pre
Ken Wilbur has described the [Pre/Trans or Post/Pre Fallacy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH5Qn6K36Ug): that is, confusing not understanding a framework with being beyond the need for it. Imagine:
* Aerial is an aspiring artist who identifies as a free spirit. She loves nothing more than manifest the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4SgtYvwzhzxqrvywC/post-pre |
# How did the Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Thread Change Your Behavior, if at All?
The point of the [CJPA thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LwcKYR8bykM6vDHyo/coronavirus-justified-practical-advice-thread) was for people to get information that changed their behavior in positive ways. It's a little soon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6e2reZPPY7Wbktty/how-did-the-coronavirus-justified-practical-advice-thread |
# An Open Letter To The Congregation Regarding The Upcoming Holiday
Under normal circumstances, in a few days we would gather together to celebrate the festival of Purim. We celebrate by reading together the megillah. It tells a timeless story for every generation about standing up and avoiding death.
Since, as we al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N29zCQ9JWTEP3TRta/an-open-letter-to-the-congregation-regarding-the-upcoming |
# You've Been Exposed to COVID-19: What Do You Wish You Knew?
A thing I've been really frustrated by with a lot of coronavirus advice posts is lack of specificity. What does "quarantine for 14 days" mean? Do I need to poop in a bucket? Can I use my private yard? Let deliveries be placed on my doorstep? If I'm recovere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ETqyWKoHpP9LytGmS/you-ve-been-exposed-to-covid-19-what-do-you-wish-you-knew |
# A Proof Against Oracle AI
Armstrong et al. [suggest](http://www.aleph.se/papers/oracleAI.pdf) that an Oracle AI could be a solution to confine the harmful potential of artificial intelligence.
While the benefits are certainly considerable, I believe that even an oracle could lead to an existential risk, or at leas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T9DiPNuNunzZtJuk3/a-proof-against-oracle-ai |
# Effectiveness of Fever-Screening Will Decline
COVID-19 Is Under Strong Selective Pressure
-------------------------------------------
Fever screening is the practice of checking the temperature of everyone passing through a checkpoint, such as at an airport or public gathering, for fever. This can be done individua... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FiNGgmAqmvy9ma5SJ/effectiveness-of-fever-screening-will-decline |
# Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2
Introduction
============
One of the main places Americans look for information on coronavirus is the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (abbreviated CDC from the days before “and Prevention” was in the title). That’s natural; “handling contagious epidemics” is not their ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4vWsBBjASgiQ2pn6/credibility-of-the-cdc-on-sars-cov-2 |
# Coming Back to Biking
For about a year and a half starting in [September 2008](https://www.jefftk.com/p/what-bike-to-get), I rode my bike everywhere. I was very into it, in a [retrogrouch](https://www.jefftk.com/p/retrogrouch) way. Over time my [knees started hurting](https://www.jefftk.com/p/what-fixed-my-knees) so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ce4c6uahrJhqn7x7h/coming-back-to-biking |
# How are people tracking confirmed Coronavirus cases / Coronavirus deaths?
I'm keeping a log of the number of Corronavirus cases (both active and total), in local-areas that I care about.
Currently, I'm using the [dashboard](https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) put t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XcHgwn79oTDP8Hcz/how-are-people-tracking-confirmed-coronavirus-cases |
# How long does SARS-CoV-2 survive on copper surfaces
I wrapped copper tape around a wood stick:
I will use this stick to push any buttons in public and press door handles. How reasonable is it to touch the copper-coated stick after it touching potent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AatcbsEtr5ftHe6mf/how-long-does-sars-cov-2-survive-on-copper-surfaces |
# Active Recovery
If you believe you've caught the virus, what are some beginning steps to take to start initial recovery? What are there changes to diet, foods to avoid, or supplements to take? At this rate, it feels as though infections will no longer be uncommon so adapting to better safety and lifestyle habits wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wYQbWzE7fhiucmEB2/active-recovery |
# Winning vs Truth – Infohazard Trade-Offs
_\[Cross-posted from_ _[Grand Unified Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/03/07/winning-vs-truth-infohazard-trade-offs/).\]_
[This post on the credibility of the CDC](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4vWsBBjASgiQ2pn6/credibility-of-the-cdc-on-sars-cov-2) has sparked a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ta6Bo6D5efif4fXB/winning-vs-truth-infohazard-trade-offs |
# 4 Kinds of Learning
The best way to learn something depends on what you're learning. Broadly-speaking, the things you learn can be divided into thinking/doing and conscious/unconscious. We can thus break the learning landscape into four kinds of learning: conceptual learning, rote learning, kinesthetic learning and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/57p47mDfioRBWYhBz/4-kinds-of-learning |
# At what level of coronavirus cases in a population should the people in that population start self-quarantining?
The question and desiderata
===========================
I'm looking for a s**pecific number here**, even an equation. At what # of reported coronavirus cases (or estimated actual cases) within a populat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pkbGLWLvL5Rvw2k9i/at-what-level-of-coronavirus-cases-in-a-population-should |
# Ineffective Response to COVID-19 and Risk Compensation
_**UPDATE: This post was written and reflects an earlier set of my beliefs. I have updated significantly in a number of ways since it was posted, based on both external events and research, and no longer endorse it.**_
Epistemic status: _I have a mental model t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9ununGfjmbysA9c7G/ineffective-response-to-covid-19-and-risk-compensation |
# How's the case for wearing googles for COVID-19 protection when in public transportation?
I'm in a high risk group and there's a higher likelihood of dying if I get infected then for the average person. I will reduce the amount of public transportation travel but being totally isolated won't be good for my health ei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YoxBBzu46P98Fb7yw/how-s-the-case-for-wearing-googles-for-covid-19-protection |
# The Lens, Progerias and Polycausality
Fun fact: the lens of a human eye consists mostly of fiber deposits which are never broken down - they do not turn over. Furthermore, new fiber layers are constantly added throughout life, so the lens thickens linearly by about 25 microns per year. Starting at around 3.5mm in in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qX7E5o73sFeWDjJp8/the-lens-progerias-and-polycausality |
# UML final
(This is the fourteenth and final post in a sequence on Machine Learning based on [this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132). Click [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/C8wgFMCmoMNbvDSMP/p/Z29etNPef6yvrPteK) for part I.)
The first part of this post wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GYRBWJKTm42haE5FL/uml-final |
# Toby Ord’s ‘The Precipice’ is published!
_\[x-posted from EA Forum\]_
_The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity_ is out today. I’ve been working on the book with Toby for the past 18 months, and I’m excited for everyone to read it. I think it has the potential to make a profound difference to the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WGq2Z6x5ZpETCpj4z/toby-ord-s-the-precipice-is-published-1 |
# Open & Welcome Thread - March 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rhZge5qmZKwJ8BMDM/open-and-welcome-thread-march-2020 |
# March Coronavirus Open Thread
This thread was created on 3/8/2020, or approximately one million years ago in virus time. It’s getting pretty bloated now, and a lot of things that were high value at the time have been eclipsed by events, making karma not a very useful sorting tool. So I’m declaring this thread finish... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ACyGvQchWzGjGkKgS/march-coronavirus-open-thread |
# Quadratic models and (un)falsified data
On 5th Feb a commenter on Reddit [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/) that the coronavirus cases in China were following a suspiciously accurate quadratic curve, implying that China was making up the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iYytZ96YZQxufQbo/quadratic-models-and-un-falsified-data |
# How can we extrapolate the true prevalence of a disease, given available information?
Note: a similar question got more attention [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJpnfuJz58G82kpNW/model-estimating-the-number-of-infected-persons-in-the-bay) so maybe check that out.
The motivation here is COVID-19, but I think... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/97Gguru75bqo7jbMf/how-can-we-extrapolate-the-true-prevalence-of-a-disease |
# It's Time To Stop Dancing
At this point it is likely that the coronavirus will spread widely, and the [majority](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/) of people will get it. Still, it matters enormously whether we all get it at once, or over a l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogRwCy5tF6z7xDiwb/it-s-time-to-stop-dancing |
# Model estimating the number of infected persons in the bay area
**\[Edit: I already found one error in my spreadsheet, and adjusted the incubation rate, which [decreased my results by an order of magnitude](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJpnfuJz58G82kpNW/model-estimating-the-number-of-infected-persons-in-the-bay?c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJpnfuJz58G82kpNW/model-estimating-the-number-of-infected-persons-in-the-bay |
# Why hasn't the technology of Knowledge Representation (i.e., semantic networks, concept graphs, ontology engineering) been applied to create tools to help human thinkers?
I've been studying the field of [knowledge representation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_representation_and_reasoning) (KR) and everythi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPtqrZBEiaJfpR727/why-hasn-t-the-technology-of-knowledge-representation-i-e |
# Potential High-Leverage and Inexpensive Mitigations (which are still feasible) for Pandemics
([Crossposted from EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/R2XdkTkYBgsj6ysis/potential-high-leverage-and-inexpensive-mitigations-which)) A little over a year ago, I started a collaboration with David Denkenberger... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MkcwR5Z4hA8eoHCQ9/potential-high-leverage-and-inexpensive-mitigations-which |
# Sleepwalking Toward Armageddon
The beginning of my Extinction series. The Death, Truth, and Extinction series will when completed become the core to what I'm calling The Eschatologist's Handbook. I'm skipping around a bit and writing all three series at the same time as I go through the materials so that I make sure... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k77FjFhsh6dthQgyg/sleepwalking-toward-armageddon-1 |
# Thoughts on the Scope of LessWrong's Infohazard Policies
*Recently, I was asked about my opinion on deleting posts that had potentially bad consequences. In particular, whether I should delete a post criticising the CDC's response to the coronavirus, during a time of crisis where the CDC was the relevant US governme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nx94BD6vBY23rk6To/thoughts-on-the-scope-of-lesswrong-s-infohazard-policies |
# The Heckler's Veto Is Also Subject to the Unilateralist's Curse
I occasionally see the ["unilateralist's curse"](https://concepts.effectivealtruism.org/concepts/unilateralists-curse/) invoked as a rationale for censorship in contexts where I am _very suspicious_ that the [actual reason](https://www.lesswrong.com/pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oREzdHpzaB2RaY2fA/the-heckler-s-veto-is-also-subject-to-the-unilateralist-s |
# [Article review] Artificial Intelligence, Values, and Alignment
In January, DeepMind released a paper by Iason Gabriel called [Artificial Intelligence, Values, and Alignment](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.09768.pdf) (author’s summary [here](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/Artificial-Intelligence-Values-and-A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j7hbHS7nr3kjz3z36/article-review-artificial-intelligence-values-and-alignment |
# How effective are tulpas?
Edit: After further consideration, I've concluded that the risk:reward ratio for tulpamancy isn't worth it and won't be pursuing the topic further. I may revisit this conclusion if I encounter new information, but otherwise I'm content to pursue improvements in a more "standard" fashion. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sdh9rzvF35R3CwpvN/how-effective-are-tulpas |
# What is the typical course of COVID-19? What are the variants?
I've heard a lot about the death rate, hospitalization rate, doubling time, etc, but I don't feel like I know \*what happens\* when you catch SARS-CoV-2. My questions include, but are not limited to:
* How long from infection to symptoms?
* How do s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pacxL5yyDsA9dFpgH/what-is-the-typical-course-of-covid-19-what-are-the-variants |
# Growth rate of COVID-19 outbreaks
_Edit 14/03/2020: The top two graphs are now available as interactive versions [here](https://chart-studio.plot.ly/~Bucky13/1) (thanks to Ruby for helping with getting this uploaded). The labels on the right are clickable to remove or add countries (double click selects only that co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJBQ7GiyvFTBnSEEC/growth-rate-of-covid-19-outbreaks |
# A conversation on theory of mind, subjectivity, and objectivity
I recently had a [Twitter conversation](https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1236883378198024195) with [Roko Mijic](https://twitter.com/RokoMijicUK). I believe it contains ideas that a wider philosophical/rationalist audience may find valuable, and so ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9v5iSX6jD73qEuKCj/a-conversation-on-theory-of-mind-subjectivity-and |
# Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia
The sketch of the argument which favours panspermia.
1\. There are around [10 billion potentially habitable planets](https://www.businessinsider.com/10-billion-earth-like-planets-in-milky-way-galaxy-2019-8) in our g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhddPYhh7LXdKXK9L/anthropic-effects-imply-that-we-are-more-likely-to-live-in |
# When to Reverse Quarantine and Other COVID-19 Considerations
A lot of people in my social network have been trying to track news about the new coronavirus, COVID-19, which seems like a global pandemic that's going to kill a lot of people. I've found some of this overwhelming and difficult to figure out how to use, u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pXXktKATjKf8A3FeR/when-to-reverse-quarantine-and-other-covid-19-considerations |
# COVID-19 article translations site aims to bridge the knowledge gap
As anyone who spans two cultures know, it's often frustrating to see how wrong the media can get news in one or the other of their domains.
When faced with the elevated stakes of COVID-19 and the consequences of mismanagement imposed upon her famil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SKoixgvAdBNzxA8B9/covid-19-article-translations-site-aims-to-bridge-the |
# Zoom In: An Introduction to Circuits
Chris Olah and the rest of the rest of the OpenAI Clarity team just published “[Zoom In: An Introduction to Circuits](https://distill.pub/2020/circuits/zoom-in/),” a Distill article about some of the transparency research they've been doing which I think is very much worth taking... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MG4ZjWQDrdpgeu8wG/zoom-in-an-introduction-to-circuits |
# The Case for Privacy Optimism
(_Cross-posted from my [personal blog](https://benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com/)._)
_This post is an edited transcript of [a talk](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1_19CEZSi3IcInta_3OAST92c9IWjKApWukudW2VIJEU/edit?usp=sharing) I recently gave on the past and future of privacy. I arg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4k4FLCPXXdw5cLnvh/the-case-for-privacy-optimism |
# How useful are masks during an epidemic?
This was a pretty contentious part of the [debate on the CDC's recommendations](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4vWsBBjASgiQ2pn6/credibility-of-the-cdc-on-sars-cov-2) and has come up elsewhere as well: how effective are masks at preventing infection when worn by an uninfecte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7K8fSFTnpfN4EBuZ8/how-useful-are-masks-during-an-epidemic |
# What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car?
I'm currently planning to rent a car and drive to another state.
I would like to disinfect that car as thoroughly as possible before spending 15 hours inside of it. Google gives me [lots](https://www.autoloansolutions.ca/blog/4-tips-to-kill-germs-in-your-car/) [of](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9aWr6H2SYcys2AM3e/what-is-the-best-way-to-disinfect-a-rental-car |
# Why don't singularitarians bet on the creation of AGI by buying stocks?
With the recent [stock market sale](https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/03/09/stock-market-bloodbath-sp-dow-nasdaq-all-down-more-than-7-in-worst-drop-since-2008/), I've been looking over stocks to see which seem to be worth buying. (A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yuyvosHTgjDR4giPZ/why-don-t-singularitarians-bet-on-the-creation-of-agi-by |
# [AN #90]: How search landscapes can contain self-reinforcing feedback loops
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7d2PsdHXrJnbofrvF/an-90-how-search-landscapes-can-contain-self-reinforcing |
# Trace README
Trace is a tool for writing programs which read, write and reason about programs.
You can find it [here](https://github.com/johnswentworth/tracelang). I wrote it as a tool for my own research, and I expect that others in this space may find the ideas interesting/useful as well. I'd be especially intere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbWoZNxgwr2NBFdoo/trace-readme |
# A practical out-of-the-box solution to slow down COVID-19: Turn up the heat
3 days ago there was published a [research](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308) that swayed me significantly towards the opinion that COVID-19 is spreading better in cold (but not too cold) climates. I believe that t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6St77hRDyBCe8S3Y8/a-practical-out-of-the-box-solution-to-slow-down-covid-19 |
# What are some articles that updated your beliefs a lot on an important topic?
The content doesn't need to be hosted on LessWrong.
It does need to have changed your beliefs personally. If it changed other people's beliefs, please put this as a comment instead.
Also, the article should be more than simply updating y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s9cX59BdGfEEpPEBe/what-are-some-articles-that-updated-your-beliefs-a-lot-on-an |
# Please Press "Record"
Over the years, I've made very heavy use of open courseware/MOOCs. I'd estimate that I've covered about as much material in online lectures as I did in-person during a four year degree.
However, since college I've been frustrated by the general lack of online material for non-101 courses. Site... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ait6BZGpwmDMtjkbY/please-press-record |
# Puzzles for Physicalists
The following is a list of puzzles that are hard to answer within a broadly-physicalist, objective paradigm. I believe [critical agentialism](https://unstableontology.com/2020/03/05/a-critical-agential-account-of-free-will-causation-and-physics/) can answer these better than competing framew... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/my5pbcmQPb6ASSHYM/puzzles-for-physicalists |
# I'm leaving AI alignment – you better stay
This diagram summarizes the requirements for independent AI alignment research
and how they are connecte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HDXLTFnSndhpLj2XZ/i-m-leaving-ai-alignment-you-better-stay |
# Why isn't increasing ventilation of public spaces part of the best practice response to the Coronovirus?
It's my impression that there's some spread via aerosol in public spaces like buses and trains. By increasing ventilation in those spaces by opening more windows I find it plausible that we could reduce that tran... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aqTwwvBv84rjqKvnk/why-isn-t-increasing-ventilation-of-public-spaces-part-of |
# The Critical COVID-19 Infections Are About To Occur: It's Time To Stay Home [crosspost]
Well I don't know how many of you reading this have been following the spread of Coronavirus. In the line of providing another person who is noticing the smoke in the room, I [wrote this last night](https://theimpassionata.wordpr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qw8vQEQLWQBDzM7CH/the-critical-covid-19-infections-are-about-to-occur-it-s |
# Crisis and opportunity during coronavirus
_Note: please put on your own oxygen mask first. Don’t engage with this post if you haven’t taken [appropriate measures to prepare yourself and your family](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Rn6WrTat0Cb6gfatWv-TcSBToh3t00f_pm5XwC0BiGo/edit); and plausibly don’t engage if y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PD3gHuPhAotbXm644/crisis-and-opportunity-during-coronavirus |
# Adaptive Immune System Aging
The human adaptive immune system is the “smart” part of the human immune system, the part which learns to recognize specific pathogens, allowing for immunity to e.g. chicken pox. For our current purposes, the key players are T-cells. T-cells start out “naive” and eventually learn to reco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LMe6Gbi485rimYt4h/adaptive-immune-system-aging |
# More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them
Our best chance to fight CV is to create a vaccine as soon as possible. The irony is that we probably [already have](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vacc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/94QQkc5he9Qzq2tWC/more-dakka-for-coronavirus-we-need-immediate-human-trials-of |
# Over $1,000,000 in prizes for COVID-19 work from Emergent Ventures
Tyler Cowen's fund Emergent Ventures is offering:
* $500k, second prize $200k, for Best effort to find a good treatment rapidly
* $100k for Best blog or social media tracking/analysis of the virus
* $100k for Best innovation in social distanci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q8gitkaTaCaAGcSvG/over-usd1-000-000-in-prizes-for-covid-19-work-from-emergent |
# Stepping Up Isolation
I've been really impressed by the coronavirus response in my communities. People are cancelling gatherings, working from home, and generally trying their best to [flatten the curve](https://www.flattenthecurve.com/). Slowing down the infection rate is critical because if we can't keep this with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7LQgsoeZ7WHCkGkt4/stepping-up-isolation |
# Rationalists, Post-Rationalists, And Rationalist-Adjacents
_Epistemic status: Hortative. I'm trying to argue for carving reality at a new joint._
I think it's lovely and useful that we have labels, not just for **rationalist**, but for **rationalist-adjacent** and for **post-rationalist**. But these labels are gene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Ee5DPBxowTTXZ6zf/rationalists-post-rationalists-and-rationalist-adjacents |
# What is a School?
Previously: [The Case Against Education](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/04/15/the-case-against-education/)
You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.
In a belated triumph of sanity, schools around the world are closing their doors in the wake of the Coronavirus outbreak.
The debates about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHkASA4kykHJXpAef/what-is-a-school |
# LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database
**_Note: This post is old, read the new major update [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PxFfAQZRhMNs6xFMH/announcement-lesswrong-coronavirus-links-database-2-0)._**
There is a lot of coronavirus information currently out there, and a lot of people have been feeling overwhelme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5LFEDHjCKgXJgJQjR/lesswrong-coronavirus-link-database |
# A Sketch of Answers for Physicalists
_Epistemic Status: Just quickly sketched out some rough solutions_
Jessicata recently wrote a post [Puzzles for Physicalists](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/my5pbcmQPb6ASSHYM/puzzles-for-physicalists). I'm not a physicalist, but I'll attempt answer these questions from this per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/39DwkziFPGYv7g2Bd/a-sketch-of-answers-for-physicalists |
# A Significant Portion of COVID-19 Transmission Is Presymptomatic
*Epistemic status: Not quite settled science, but preprints seem to agree.*
Strong evidence points to presymptomatic sources as a major source of COVID-19 infections, possibly the majority. The exact proportion is environment-dependent; awareness and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GyKccaJdLEbdhyTi/a-significant-portion-of-covid-19-transmission-is |
# How dangerous is it to test a vaccine without animal trials?
I saw the idea a few times ([including on LW](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/94QQkc5he9Qzq2tWC/more-dakka-for-coronavirus-we-need-immediate-human-trials-of)), and support it, to do/allow human trials for CoronaVirus vaccine without animal trials.
My ques... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJeKoG55Bqrd4cpBz/how-dangerous-is-it-to-test-a-vaccine-without-animal-trials |
# Possible worst outcomes of the coronavirus epidemic
There are several possible ways how current pandemic may turn into a [civilizational](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228903654_Catastrophe_social_collapse_and_human_extinction) [collapse](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228903654_Catastrophe_soci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u2Q3cAzqvsAW5EsNa/possible-worst-outcomes-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic |
# The Danes wish to know more about the coronavirus
Denmark has the 4th highest per capita number of \[confirmed\] infections worldwide after Italy, Norway, South Korea. This is from a friend I originally made through LW Copenhagen:
"Thanks for the excellent coverage on MR.
I lead a small team of tech workers in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMXKTXurxTmKMXQSc/the-danes-wish-to-know-more-about-the-coronavirus |
# Recommendations for a resource on very basic epidemiology?
Does anyone have a recommended textbook, video course, etc?
I'm doing my best to make sense of what's happening with COVID-19, mostly by making simple exponential models under simplified assumptions. But it seems like I could be doing better than that, if ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rv9rstoLYmMtSFsWf/recommendations-for-a-resource-on-very-basic-epidemiology |
# The absurdity of un-referenceable entities
> Whereof one cannot *speak*, thereof one must be silent.
>
> Ludwig Wittgenstein, *Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus**
Some criticism of [my post on physicalism](https://unstableontology.com/2020/03/12/puzzles-for-physicalists/) is that it discusses reference, not the world... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTYvnG9t3FN9Lnute/the-absurdity-of-un-referenceable-entities |
# How likely is it that US states or cities will prevent travel across their borders?
In contrast to quarantining people who are known to be infected, I want to know how likely it is that, (for instance) California doesn't allow people to enter and/or to leave, across her state borders.
Is there any precedent in US h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PrspYa6kvbpHorx8y/how-likely-is-it-that-us-states-or-cities-will-prevent |
# Does SARS-CoV-2 utilize antibody-dependent enhancement?
The possibility of SARS-CoV-2 having [Antibody-Dependent Enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement) (aka ADE) looked pretty real, to me.
If you're curious about the challenges of vaccine development for SARS-CoV-2, I recommend [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5cKbs2etGiFrXxGd/does-sars-cov-2-utilize-antibody-dependent-enhancement |
# When are the most important times to wash your hands?
I set a five minute timer to brainstorm some, but I bet that there are many that I've missed, and furthermore, it would be helpful to know which ones are most important / impactful.
* I'm about to eat food
* After I go to the bathroom
* After I touch a pac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c6b6jq5ow9uWHxjSE/when-are-the-most-important-times-to-wash-your-hands |
# How to have a happy quarantine
As you may have noticed, things in the world are a bit cuckoo bananas right now. Social distancing is becoming increasingly widespread, which means that people are going to be experiencing social isolation at an unprecedented level. In this age of global connectedness, this seems reall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eeZQunErdm6oWyhTy/how-to-have-a-happy-quarantine |
# How would you take math notes to make the most of them?
I've been heavily influenced by reading about the zettelkasten method (and its siblings); it seems to, theoretically, solve many problems that I (a bioinformatics student) encounter on a daily basis.
However, I'm struggling with implementing said method in pra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ChkdQPHNyMuxEBCsz/how-would-you-take-math-notes-to-make-the-most-of-them |
# Meetups in the era of COVID-19
I’m sure no one here remains unaware of the fact that we’re in the midst of a pandemic. My goal with this post is to help meetup organizers help their communities deal with this situation. I know that some communities have already preemptively canceled events, and that others live in a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y6fqM9W2zgKHbGiiY/meetups-in-the-era-of-covid-19 |
# Comprehensive COVID-19 Disinfection Protocol for Packages and Envelopes
An easy way to limit your exposure to COVID-19 is to quit going out grocery shopping and buy groceries online instead. But there's a problem: [This review](https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext) found... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e58HBiXEY4ivNgZRg/comprehensive-covid-19-disinfection-protocol-for-packages |
# Should we heat our houses to ~78F to reduce coronavirus risk?
People have noticed that the coronavirus outbreaks are most common in cities in a specific temperature range (5-11C, 41-52F), and now there's a paper (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308) giving more detail. We normally keep our h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DhvuF6noCsft9PGrj/should-we-heat-our-houses-to-78f-to-reduce-coronavirus-risk |
# Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated.
TL;DR Our estimation of young adult mortality could be biased because of longer survival time before death in ICU and triage.
The data from Asia is that the mortality of young adults between 20-39 is like 0.2 per cent. This sometimes contradic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oZYZj8y8GeP7GwC9f/reasons-why-coronavirus-mortality-of-young-adults-may-be |
# Forecasting an 80% chance of an effective anti COVID-19 drug (probably Remdesivir)
I'm gathering info on anti-COVID-19 drug efforts. [Here is what I've compiled so far.](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hwGgjxQhT5_7_lg7IRYYqvCGKUP_Q3IE2Ua8lVzPyrI/edit?usp=sharing) I've combined the number of trials in var... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5sgrQ2yLX6fSXGhB4/forecasting-an-80-chance-of-an-effective-anti-covid-19-drug |
# Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Summary
Two weeks ago Ben Pace and I asked for [practical advice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LwcKYR8bykM6vDHyo/coronavirus-justified-practical-advice-thread) on what to do about coronavirus, with the requirement that advice be justified in some way- ideally full blown mode... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B9qzPZDcPwnX6uEpe/coronavirus-justified-practical-advice-summary |
# How Do You Convince Your Parents To Prep? To Quarantine?
A number of my friends are having difficulty conveying the seriousness of COVID-19 to their parents, or getting them to take action instead of panic. What have you found useful in convincing your parents to prep and stay home, and for bonus points, convincing ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RFWrTrhcD4XJyWh4Y/how-do-you-convince-your-parents-to-prep-to-quarantine |
# What are some exercises for building/generating intuitions about key disagreements in AI alignment?
I am interested in having my own opinion about more of the [key disagreements](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mJ5oNYnkYrd4sD5uE/clarifying-some-key-hypotheses-in-ai-alignment) within the AI alignment field, such as w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDwQddhqaTiMhbpPF/what-are-some-exercises-for-building-generating-intuitions |
# Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba?
Alibaba (and Amazon) sell lots of "portable oxygen concentrators" in bulk for $200 - $300 a piece, e.g [this one](https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Amazon-portable-oxygen-concentrator-with-battery_60773158783.html?spm=a2700.them... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6MRHmHgEP5yZvzbXz/could-you-save-lives-in-your-community-by-buying-oxygen |
# Why such low detected rates of COVID-19 in children?
In China [0.9%](http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51) of COVID-19 cases were in people <10. In the Chinese population 11.9% of people are <10.
In Italy its [0.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YKt5qc6NNkE7p4Z4K/why-such-low-detected-rates-of-covid-19-in-children |
# Positive Feedback -> Optimization?
When I imagine the beginnings of life on earth, I imagine a handful of molecules which just-so-happen to catalyze reactions which produce more of those same molecules. The more of molecule X there is, the more molecule X is produced. The chemical kinetic equations contain a positiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/moxPbPfd3EW9e89dJ/positive-feedback-greater-than-optimization |
# March 14/15th: Daily Coronavirus link updates
As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, I am publishing a daily update post with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links we (Elizabeth, Ben and I) added over the weekend, by t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/anJdkZuwtpLo37Lbo/march-14-15th-daily-coronavirus-link-updates |
# Kevin Simler: Outbreak
Kevin Simler released another blogpost, this time on disease spread modeling. Excerpt:
> [Harry Stevens](https://twitter.com/Harry_Stevens) at The Washington Post recently published a *very* elegant simulation of how a disease like COVID-19 spreads. If you haven't already, I highly recommend... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RMwjrPrLwzYzAdhWd/kevin-simler-outbreak |
# AI Alignment Podcast: On Lethal Autonomous Weapons with Paul Scharre
Most relevant to AI alignment, and a pertinent question to focus on for interested readers/listeners is: if we are are unable to establish a governance mechanism as a global community on the concept that we should not let AI make the decision to ki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEzudcydk7APZbnai/ai-alignment-podcast-on-lethal-autonomous-weapons-with-paul |
# COVID-19's Household Secondary Attack Rate Is Unknown
For group houses, one of the most important factors when deciding how to relate to COVID-19 is the question: If one of my housemates gets infected, how likely am I to also get infected? This is known as the household secondary attack rate, and it determines how m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QdfD3bbMYAbCLv4aB/covid-19-s-household-secondary-attack-rate-is-unknown |
# King and Princess
Sometimes Lily tells me that she is a princess and wants me to be the king. We'll sit together, me on the throne and her at my side, and we'll hear cases from our people. An imaginary petitioner describes the situation to me, and I relay it to Lily. We consult about the situation, consider the circ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4Aw7Ag7QWLT6kEMY/king-and-princess |
# A game designed to beat AI?
It's no surprise LW is dominated by COVID questions right now. My guess is that many of us are holding their ground at home and have more spare time than usual. So here is a question for you: if you are to design a 1v1-type board game and your purpose is to confuse the AIs, to make it as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oEvg9Xjt7pDRKvYJp/a-game-designed-to-beat-ai |
# Good News: the Containment Measures are Working
After weeks and months of rather drastic measures we can see the glimpse of how the lockdowns are making a difference. Here are the snapshots from [worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/):
**New cases dropping**
----------------------
 so that I can take any such politician more serious... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cNMc9cxJaYnhuArx2/did-any-us-politician-react-appropriately-to-covid-19-early |
# Let My People Stay Home
When the Jews left Egypt, they were in such a hurry that they did not have time for their bread to rise.
When we packed up the most important things in our apartment, we were forced to leave the bread behind. The pizza was ready in eighteen minutes.
Last real pizza for a while. Happy belate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KhzqihiQS6Zf8ZjAx/let-my-people-stay-home |
# What is Interpretability?
In this post we lay out some ideas around framing interpretability research which we have found quite useful. Our framing is goal-oriented, which we believe is important for making sure interpretability research is meaningful. We also go over a variety of dimensions which we think are usefu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rSMbGFfsLMB3GWZtX/what-is-interpretability |
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