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# Approaches to Electronic Contra
I've been thinking about the various ways that musicians have approached combining elements of electronic dance music with contra dance. Examples:
* [Lisa Greenleaf, Concord 2008](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=popMhWLxD5g)
* [YDW 2008](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcwgicJf4r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nRboJBNXdjvywGxss/approaches-to-electronic-contra |
# Would Covid19 patients benefit from blood transfusions from people who have recovered?
Epistemic status: wild idea thrown out there in case it is brilliant.
Presumably, the blood of recovered patients has some antibody that targets the virus. Blood transfusions are widely understood and known safe. (Or at least sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zv8vuSnvn2FihNbZt/would-covid19-patients-benefit-from-blood-transfusions-from |
# The Great Annealing
Cross-posted as always [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/03/27/the-great-annealing/).
* * *
Michael Johnson of the Qualia Research Institute wrote an overview of the theory of **[neural annealing](https://opentheory.net/2019/11/neural-annealing-toward-a-neural-theory-of-everything... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBQAWai29zDJCGrkX/the-great-annealing |
# My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
At the beginning of 2017, someone I deeply trusted said they thought AGI would come in 10 years, with 50% probability.
I didn't take their opinion at face value, especially since so many experts seemed confident that AGI was decades away. But the possibility of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w4jjwDPa853m9P4ag/my-current-framework-for-thinking-about-agi-timelines |
# The Real Standard
Long-delayed followup To: [Roleplaying As Yourself](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/nF2fpXPuTR5pHjG99/roleplaying-as-yourself)
_(Another simple intuition pump, this one especially useful for effective altruists who are struggling with wanting to do more or worrying they're not doing enough.)_
P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TLaNMQd783DoKDRcf/the-real-standard |
# Resource for the mappings between areas of math and their applications?
One of the things that I want to do while I'm in self-quarantine is to learn more math.
One thing that would be really helpful for me is a mapping between areas of math and the technical subfields that use that math.
I'd want to be able to go ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LYtp6BHbRotSE42Sm/resource-for-the-mappings-between-areas-of-math-and-their |
# Openness Norms in AGI Development
_1\. Introduction_
------------------
This post outlines two models from the social epistemology of science explaining the emergence of the a particular openness norm within the sciences, and then looks at how such models can be utilised to understand research groups trying to deve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RvrTZ3qKWpg9aiFqZ/openness-norms-in-agi-development |
# Three Kinds of Competitiveness
_Crossposted from [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/three-kinds-of-competitiveness/)_
_\[Epistemic status: I wrote this for [Blog Post Day II.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FredSMMXc77kMAquA/blog-post-day-ii) Sorry it's late.\]_
In this post, I distinguish between three different... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sD6KuprcS3PFym2eM/three-kinds-of-competitiveness |
# Why do we have offices?
Also:
- Why do we have in person talks?
- Why do people prefer live events?
They seem expensive, and not useful for jobs that can apparently be done remotely.
h/t Matthew Barnett for making me wonder
Followup question: how can we translate those benefits to remote work? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAwx3ZTaX7muvfMrL/why-do-we-have-offices |
# What happens in a recession anyway?
I know the technical definition of a recession- a GDP contraction lasting at least two quarters- but do not have a satisfactory answer as to what _happens._
A non-exhaustive list of the kinds of consequences I'm thinking of, sometimes including references, which are intended to b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5mWjazfyLCka6Knk2/what-happens-in-a-recession-anyway |
# How will this recession differ from the last two?
My model is that the last recession (2008) was essentially financial in nature- a bunch of wealth was destroyed on paper but we lost no productive capacity. The 2002 recession was similar- most of what happened was revealing that things were valueless, rather than de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fkSzNaziH2STJN4uL/how-will-this-recession-differ-from-the-last-two |
# What will happen to supply chains in the era of COVID-19?
[Bucky](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/owk7eBzwjPHNQbNeL/what-will-the-economic-effects-of-a-3-week-quarantine-be-3?commentId=rpM3LWksq9FrzDQKJ) and [skybian](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/owk7eBzwjPHNQbNeL/what-will-the-economic-effects-of-a-3-week-quaran... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M5ksueFxXQTT5n9oB/what-will-happen-to-supply-chains-in-the-era-of-covid-19 |
# What are some good / fun / informative treatises on good governance?
Like many of us, I find both (1) an unusual amount of time on my hands to read and (2) a renewed interest in systems of governance which lead to competent collective decision-making.
I honestly haven't read much in this sphere. I was hoping for so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XWD5aENHEZr9uJj6/what-are-some-good-fun-informative-treatises-on-good |
# Blog Post Day II Retrospective
Saturday was [Blog Post Day II](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FredSMMXc77kMAquA/blog-post-day-ii). It wasn't as good as [Blog Post Day](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q972DHxCwZKFbEPMn/blog-post-day-unofficial). However, I'm still glad I did it.
To my knowledge six people wrote pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Snujc8H8vqfLpbNdp/blog-post-day-ii-retrospective |
# What are the costs, benefits, and logistics of opening up new vaccine facilities?
In [this comment](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda#9gzrdmKELqKiAjEnd) on the parent question, David Manheim makes the case for building new vaccine production facilities before we have a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KetGc6dpb5daXEk7P/what-are-the-costs-benefits-and-logistics-of-opening-up-new |
# April Coronavirus Open Thread
[Last month’s Coronavirus Open Thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ACyGvQchWzGjGkKgS/coronavirus-open-thread) did a fantastic job at being a place for coronavirus-related information and questions that didn’t merit a top level post, but at almost 400 comments, many of which were gre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qapqE86xrjQkD8eZ2/april-coronavirus-open-thread |
# Outperforming the human Atari benchmark
I haven't paid much attention to Atari in a long time, and so would appreciate takes from anyone who follows this more closely. My take:
A single architecture that can handle both the games that require significant exploration, and the games that require long-term credit assi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kwgM5nGe9QXcB4TTu/outperforming-the-human-atari-benchmark |
# LW Coronavirus Agenda Update 3/31
Two weeks ago I announced the [LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda), an attempt to increase knowledge by coordinating research between LW participants. This post is an update on that. If you want to skip to act... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXibT36aPxNoYr67M/lw-coronavirus-agenda-update-3-31 |
# Meta-preferences two ways: generator vs. patch
In my last post ([Gricean communication and meta-preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8NpwfjFuEPMjTdriJ/gricean-communication-and-ai)), I talked about the infinite tower of meta-preferences that in principle could be applied by humans. Example meta-preferenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A5jN7vqAxsHCDC4dy/meta-preferences-two-ways-generator-vs-patch |
# How special are human brains among animal brains?
Humans are capable of feats of cognition that appear qualitatively more sophisticated than those of any other animals. Is this appearance of a qualitative difference indicative of human brains being essentially more complex than the brains of any other animal? Or is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d2jgBurQygbXzhPxc/how-special-are-human-brains-among-animal-brains |
# Necessity and Warrant
> _Literary warrant_, a concept introduced by Wyndam Hulme in 1911, has the status of a principle. A subprinciple of the principle of representation, it enjoins that the vocabulary of a subject language be empirically derived from the literature it is intended to describe. This means that a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CzdELmbXFgLma3xvw/necessity-and-warrant-1 |
# April Fools: Announcing LessWrong 3.0 – Now in VR!
On this April 1st, we at LessWrong face two problems.
1. [According to Michael Nielsen](https://numinous.productions/ttft/), software is a way to develop transformative tools for thought. Things like Anki and collaborative editing allow us to think new thoughts. B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/egPWHdnNyjeTBDTLZ/april-fools-announcing-lesswrong-3-0-now-in-vr |
# Two Alternatives to Logical Counterfactuals
The following is a critique of the idea of logical counterfactuals. The idea of logical counterfactuals has appeared in previous agent foundations research (especially at MIRI): [here](https://intelligence.org/2017/03/18/new-paper-cheating-death-in-damascus/), [here](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yBdDXXmLYejrcPPv2/two-alternatives-to-logical-counterfactuals |
# What achievements have people claimed will be warning signs for AGI?
In MIRI's March newsletter, they link [this post](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615264/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) which argues against the importance of AI safety because we haven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JHpdpZYnb6hQdR82f/what-achievements-have-people-claimed-will-be-warning-signs |
# Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
In part a response to (Overcoming Bias): [Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html)
Also related: This is an expansion of parts of [this debate with Robin Hanson](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ArEA7tHDXQxE6PED/taking-initial-viral-load-seriously |
# A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19
Katherine Milkman on Twitter notes how far off the epidemiological expert forecasts were in the linked sample:
[https://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291](https://twitter.com/katy_milkman/statu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9pofsJd3CKChHgszt/a-quick-and-crude-comparison-of-epidemiological-expert |
# The attack rate estimation is more important than CFR
Let’s here define the “attack rate” (AR) as a share of people in a group which was infected after an infection agent was introduced into the group. For example, it is estimated that swine flu infected 10-15 per cent of the world population in 2009-2010.
Obviousl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcT9rRjSYpuQWDqFZ/the-attack-rate-estimation-is-more-important-than-cfr |
# [AN #93]: The Precipice we’re standing at, and how we can back away from it
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPC9Y9b5vkTqakywC/an-93-the-precipice-we-re-standing-at-and-how-we-can-back |
# Atari early
Deepmind [announced](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Agent57-Outperforming-the-human-Atari-benchmark) that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark. I think this is probably enough to resolve one of the predictions we had respondents make in our 2016 su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygb6ryKcScJxhmwQo/atari-early |
# Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019
**EDIT**: To help assessing, go [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019). Cheers!
Many years ago, I helped organise [an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3x... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TEqW7GFBuBvGo4fbW/call-for-volunteers-assessing-kurzweil-2019 |
# What is the subjective experience of free will for agents?
Jessica recently wrote about [difficulties with physicalist accounts of the world](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/my5pbcmQPb6ASSHYM/puzzles-for-physicalists) and [alternatives to logical counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yBdDXXmLYejrcPPv2/two... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BTM4SN53mWsHLkRJL/what-is-the-subjective-experience-of-free-will-for-agents |
# Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 2 April
Happy April!
...All I can think of is that it’s hard to imagine that just three weeks ago the world felt so different than it does today. I am still following COVID-19 a lot, so here’s my second semi-regular installment of a public consolidated brief that tries to consol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3npE798Z7A4m7WTx3/peter-s-covid-consolidated-brief-for-2-april |
# What should you do regarding footwear to protect against COVID-19?
From [\[Effectiveness of personal protective measures in prevention of nosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome\]:](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15061941)
"Univariate analysis showed that mask, gown, gloves, goggles, footw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WPX8YT45TAA28d2Mg/what-should-you-do-regarding-footwear-to-protect-against |
# Equilibrium and prior selection problems in multipolar deployment
To [avoid catastrophic conflict in multipolar AI scenarios](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/DbuCdEbkh4wL5cjJ5/preface-to-eaf-s-research-agenda-on-cooperation-conflict-and), we would like to design AI systems such that AI-enabled actors will tend... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tdu3tGT4i24qcLESh/equilibrium-and-prior-selection-problems-in-multipolar-1 |
# Mask wearing: do the opposite of what the CDC/WHO has been saying?
So the standard advice has been not to wear surgical masks if you have no symptoms, justified by the two mutually contradictory arguments uttered in the same breath: "they don't help" AND "healthcare workers need them". Well, it turns out that surgic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mizGRKBonFcZu6KBx/mask-wearing-do-the-opposite-of-what-the-cdc-who-has-been |
# How credible is the theory that COVID19 escaped from a Wuhan Lab?
It sounds like a conspiracy theory. Apparently, it's big on the Chinese Internet.
[https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/chinese-internet-thinks-patient-zero-was-a-grad-student-at-the-wuhan-lab](https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/chinese-internet-thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xuSTqFoGpJLmCepJA/how-credible-is-the-theory-that-covid19-escaped-from-a-wuhan |
# Has LessWrong been a good early alarm bell for the pandemic?
The [S&P 500 began to crash](https://drive.google.com/file/d/19TcDZ3GvRe9voIY7gb73I02pJsdwyzRI/view?usp=sharing) on Feb. 20th.
On or p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHyE3LPe2d98cbvhf/has-lesswrong-been-a-good-early-alarm-bell-for-the-pandemic |
# How About a Remote Variolation Study?
Robin in [Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30x](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html):
> Just as replacing accidental smallpox infections with deliberate low dose infections cut smallpox deaths by a factor of 10 to 30, a factor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dpoiXkhzAhfNLL7dL/how-about-a-remote-variolation-study |
# Research on repurposing filter products for masks?
A local organization is looking to produce masks for the hospital, and they reached out to me for guidance. Since this is outside of my expertise and I haven't been following all of the recent research, I'm passing the questions along here.
> We are looking for som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/crpCdLreS5c7y8gud/research-on-repurposing-filter-products-for-masks |
# Takeaways from safety by default interviews
Last year, several researchers at AI Impacts (primarily Robert Long and I) interviewed prominent researchers inside and outside of the AI safety field who are relatively optimistic about advanced AI being developed safely. These interviews were originally intended to focus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzhcpDZQGNXcgxRFj/takeaways-from-safety-by-default-interviews |
# How Long Can People Usefully Work?
_[This piece is cross-posted on my blog here.](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/3/20/how-long-can-people-usefully-work)_
I hear a lot of theories around how to work optimally. “You shouldn’t work more than eight hours a day.” “You can work 12 hours a day and be fine... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c8EeJtqnsKyXdLtc5/how-long-can-people-usefully-work |
# Self-Experiment: Does Working More Hours Increase My Output?
_[This piece is cross-posted on my blog here.](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/3/24/does-working-more-hours-increase-my-output)_
After writing up [my research on limits to working](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/3/20/how-l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mbHHE8e5442YJR4JS/self-experiment-does-working-more-hours-increase-my-output |
# A Kernel of Truth: Insights from 'A Friendly Approach to Functional Analysis'
# Foreword
What is functional analysis? A satisfactory answer requires going back to where it all started.
> "All are present; the meeting convenes," intoned Fredholm. Intent were the gathered faces, their thoughts fixed on their student... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jqME8gHyC9maaH7Rp/a-kernel-of-truth-insights-from-a-friendly-approach-to |
# Referencing the Unreferencable
Jessicata wrote a post on [The Absurdity of Un-referencable Entities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTYvnG9t3FN9Lnute/the-absurdity-of-un-referenceable-entities). The comments there give many good reasons against her claim that unreferencable entities don't make sense. Nonetheless, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vyNoR8iQoKxEk839Z/referencing-the-unreferencable |
# Announcing Web-TAISU, May 13-17
**I am excited to announce Web-TAISU!**
**May 13-17, 2020**
I was going to run a [Technical AI Safety Unconference](https://www.lesswrong.com/events/BPTzfeQeZZ6chHvtr/taisu-technical-ai-safety-unconference-1) (TAISU) at [CEEALAR](https://ceealar.org/) (formerly EA Hotel), Blackpool... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CMnMaTxNAhXfcEtgm/announcing-web-taisu-may-13-17 |
# Resources for AI Alignment Cartography
**I want to make an _actionable_ map of AI alignment.**
After years of reading papers, blog posts, online exchanges, books, and occasionally hidden documents about AI alignment and AI risk, and having extremely interesting conversations about it, most arguments I encounter now... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4az2cFrJp3ya4y6Wx/resources-for-ai-alignment-cartography |
# Partying over Internet: Technological Aspects
Now, with billion people locked down in their homes, social contact over Internet becomes an increasingly important topic. Not only it allows people to stay in touch, it also lowers the incentives to [leave one's home and meet people in person](https://www.theguardian.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnGf2AprvTJYn8zhd/partying-over-internet-technological-aspects |
# Life as metaphor for everything else.
Life is highly instructive.
Not my own, personal, human life - that's kind of a mess right now. I mean life as in the property shared by all living things. The "are viruses alive?" kind of life.
Life is really, really, useful. As a metaphor. Because its associated philosophica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wt5GGfi2fiEYvHTYA/life-as-metaphor-for-everything-else |
# How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine?
There has been a lot of discussion of hydroxychloroquine (see the megathread on [Effective Altruism Coronavirus Discussion](https://www.facebook.com/groups/EACoronavirus/permalink/4309765102382572/), note you need to answer two questions to gain access). Doctors tre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGxdGE4J4wdT366ui/how-strong-is-the-evidence-for-hydroxychloroquine |
# What to draw from Macintyre et al 2015?
Last week it seems the West decided that we should all wear masks and wear cloth masks if we don't have proper masks.
As Scott Alexander pointed [out](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qapqE86xrjQkD8eZ2/april-coronavirus-open-thread?commentId=5BsonZ5kGvAGLCJ2T), [Macintyre et a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GKR76nq6zFDeS86Lq/what-to-draw-from-macintyre-et-al-2015 |
# Hydroxychloroquine: the day science stopped
_This is a translation of (what I consider the most important bits) part (32%) of the original article "Hidroxicloroquina: o dia em que a ciência parou" from [Luis Cláudio Correia](https://www.blogger.com/profile/02909537501158073052), posted on [Evidence Based Medicine Bl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sJB4MMwhwQQR7oAx8/hydroxychloroquine-the-day-science-stopped |
# What is the impact of varying infectious dose of COVID-19?
[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ArEA7tHDXQxE6PED/taking-initial-viral-load-seriously) and [Robin Hanson](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/variolation-may-cut-covid19-deaths-3-30x.html) have both made pretty provocative proposals around... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FftgfqqdRAx5ssiAp/what-is-the-impact-of-varying-infectious-dose-of-covid-19 |
# Conflict vs. mistake in non-zero-sum games
**Summary:** Whether you behave like a mistake theorist or a conflict theorist may depend more on your negotiating position in a non-zero-sum game than on your worldview.
*Disclaimer: I don't really know game theory.*
Plot the payoffs in a non-zero-sum two-player game, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z7YvA5osMotdL5F4w/conflict-vs-mistake-in-non-zero-sum-games |
# An alarm bell for the next pandemic
_See my new post, "[An alarm bell for the next pandemic, V. 2,](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QARHSMa6TqYz7txz3/alarm-bell-for-the-next-pandemic-v-2?commentId=MH3XZmBMxxFP5fkQG)" for updated criteria and more historical investigation._
My [last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/37ijFTYSaTNKrsSF4/an-alarm-bell-for-the-next-pandemic |
# Transportation as a Constraint
Imagine it’s late autumn of 332 BC. You’re Alexander the Great, and your armies are marching toward Egypt from Gaza. There’s just one little problem: you need to cross the Sinai peninsula - 150 miles of hot, barren desert. How will you carry food and water for the troops?
, an attempt to increase knowledge by coordinating research between LW participants. This post is an update on that. If you want to skip to ac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yo4Q5yRr7AHatH76i/lw-coronavirus-agenda-update-4-6 |
# The Origin of Consciousness Reading Companion, Part 1
Cross-posted, as always, [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/04/05/the-origin-companion-part-1/).
* * *
[As I threatened two weeks ago](https://putanumonit.com/2020/03/18/media-roundup-and-book-club/), the Bicameral Book Club met for its first sessi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ejpSisXriKfCJTEB/the-origin-of-consciousness-reading-companion-part-1 |
# Choosing the Zero Point
**Summary:** _You can decide what state of affairs counts as neutral, and what counts as positive or negative. Bad things happen if humans do that in our natural way. It's more motivating and less stressful if, when we learn something new, we update the neutral point to \[what we think the wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rMfpnorsMoRwyn4iP/choosing-the-zero-point |
# Self-priming
This is a self-help technique in the class of things like "low-grade meditation for 15 minutes", and as such YMMV and it's only sometimes even worth burning the time to do it. But, I like it, and I liked exploring it. Also, I derived it from cognitive science, which is a thing a lot of people seem to th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zCwAoFcridgJosAK/self-priming |
# Being right isn't enough. Confidence is very important.
There are two machines that predict weather. One machine always reports the probability of a storm as 1%, because 1% is the local yearly rate of storms. This machine turns out to be perfectly well calibrated and totally unbiased.
Another machine pays attention... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vm5Dt5wRDJqbndH2d/being-right-isn-t-enough-confidence-is-very-important |
# Kids Ear Protection
Last summer, with the Fourth of July coming up, I ordered ear protection for the kids. I think I got [this blue pair](https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B07216RSSL/) and [this red pair](https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B01IOWKFV4). They were very effective! In 2018 both kids wanted to go home... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tjo4bCL74Jnn2XQZf/kids-ear-protection |
# Would 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) ring the alarm bell?
**Introduction**
In order to assist in anticipating and responding to the next pandemic, I created an ["alarm bell" questionnaire](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/37ijFTYSaTNKrsSF4/an-alarm-bell-for-the-next-pandemic) to suggest whether or not one should behave as if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u9Ei2xM5F5EoQLh7J/would-2009-h1n1-swine-flu-ring-the-alarm-bell |
# How do you do fit-testing for KN95/N95/FFP2/FFP3 masks?
I have brought FFP3 masks half a year ago and at the time I brought them to get outside and protect myself in enviroments with allergy triggers. It didn't work. At the time I wasn't aware that fit testing is hard as writes:
> **Fit-testing is a laborious task,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W7d4Em4RaNPYsjWN7/how-do-you-do-fit-testing-for-kn95-n95-ffp2-ffp3-masks |
# Mosh
I remember when [mosh](https://mosh.org/) first came out and thinking "that sounds like a great idea, maybe I'll set it up sometime" and then never getting around to it. Several times over the years I've thought similarly, but it never seemed worth it. A week ago a coworker asked if there were good tools for ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HQzDiX6nRu6ZjY6cb/mosh |
# Body Mass and Risk from COVID-19 and Influenza
I've written a blog post on "Body Mass and Risk from COVID-19 and Influenza", available at [https://radfordneal.wordpress.com/2020/04/06/body-mass-and-risk-from-covid-19-and-influenza/](https://radfordneal.wordpress.com/2020/04/06/body-mass-and-risk-from-covid-19-and-in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/79ukbkLWwdSCYKfF4/body-mass-and-risk-from-covid-19-and-influenza |
# An Orthodox Case Against Utility Functions
_This post has benefitted from discussion with Sam Eisenstat, Scott Garrabrant, Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, Daniel Demski, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Stuart Armstrong. It started out as a thought about [Stuart Armstrong's research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A8iGaZ3uHNNGgJeaD/an-orthodox-case-against-utility-functions |
# On R0
Epistemic Status: As with all of my Coronavirus posts, I am not any kind of expert. I am a person thinking out loud, who will doubtless make many mistakes. Treat accordingly. However, the concrete policy proposal contained herein seems right and I endorse it strongly.
Partly a response to (Overcoming Bias): [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yoff8f999fica5W2d/on-r0 |
# Hanson & Mowshowitz Debate: COVID-19 Variolation
*On Sunday 29th March, Robin Hanson and Zvi Mowshowitz debated Robin's policy proposal of deliberate infection (now named "variolation"), a proposal that Robin argues can reduce deaths from coronavirus by somewhere between 3x to 30x. *
*They talked on a YouTube lives... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWdh7pjMRKiF8Jzwt/hanson-and-mowshowitz-debate-covid-19-variolation |
# Problems with p-values
I'm taking a really cool course right now on statistics education, which covers:
* replication
* p-values being bad
* bayesian statistics
* meta-analyses
A lot of our readings are really fun, and I'll likely write more posts based on them, maybe into a "why social science studie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iHKr2zzSAynkq5mZZ/problems-with-p-values |
# Would 2014-2016 Ebola ring the alarm bell?
**Introduction**
My project is to create an ["alarm bell" questionnaire](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/37ijFTYSaTNKrsSF4/an-alarm-bell-for-the-next-pandemic) to help coordinate an earlier response to the next pandemic. Please see the original document for a fuller explan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YeipHzh4xzwwfdAjG/would-2014-2016-ebola-ring-the-alarm-bell |
# Link Retrospective for 2020 Q1
Below are a list of interesting content I came across in the first quarter of 2020. I subdivided the links into the type of medium they use, namely auditory, textual, and visual. The links are in no particular order.
## 1. Auditory
D. McRaney. [How a Divisive Photograph of a Percept... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w3iQxiJoF5GcGcKgA/link-retrospective-for-2020-q1 |
# Assessing Kurzweil's 1999 predictions for 2019
**Thanks everyone who volunteered! No longer accepting new volunteers now.**
**Results coming soon.**
First of all, I want to thank all the volunteers who agreed to do this assessment. It's imp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 |
# [AN #94]: AI alignment as translation between humans and machines
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gor57NZtxG4bq5eej/an-94-ai-alignment-as-translation-between-humans-and |
# COVID-19 and the US Elections
Saw a news story this morning about possible using mail in ballots for the elections and concerns about it not being a fair process (disadvantaging Republicans). Leaving that aside it does seem that we might want to consider a plan for November just in case. (ROK is running into some di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FSTpSJfKGRcnfpqM7/covid-19-and-the-us-elections |
# English summaries of German Covid-19 expert podcast
We'll start providing **unofficial English summaries of the NDR coronavirus update podcast** (see notion linked). The podcast provides weekdaily interviews with Christian Drosten.
**Christian Drosten** is leading the virology department at the German university ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZMGnnhvnuqSjZQAd5/english-summaries-of-german-covid-19-expert-podcast |
# Ways you can get sick without human contact
**(Tl;dr: food, animals, and yourself are all carriers of disease that _the average person_ gets ~.2x/year normally; if you include immune reaction despite non-illness, the rough base rate is probably anywhere from .02x/year to** ∞**x/year and depends heavily on person; m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PB4TrBpwvfupJHWiL/ways-you-can-get-sick-without-human-contact |
# The Sandwich Argument
Today I saw a very interesting argument pattern.
> Normally I'd expect some evidence for X. I don't think there was any evidence for X apart from Y. So in conclusion, there was no evidence for X.
It's well known that people tend to remember the start and end more than the middle. This pattern... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJXfbAXbMo3EcGo22/the-sandwich-argument |
# [Announcement] LessWrong will be down for ~1 hour on the evening of April 10th around 10PM PDT (5:00AM GMT)
LessWrong's database provider (Mlab) [has been acquired by](https://venturebeat.com/2018/10/10/mongodb-to-acquire-cloud-database-provider-mlab-for-68-million/) a separate company (MongoDB) and as such our data... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNfHkkXbj98HozpcS/announcement-lesswrong-will-be-down-for-1-hour-on-the |
# COVID-19: List of ideas to reduce the direct harm from the virus, with an emphasis on unusual ideas
This is a collection of ideas on what interventions could be investigated, funded, or implemented to potentially reduce the harms from COVID-19 by intervening directly on the causal chain leading to infection and deat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R7hvNd7LqWXDrqrKp/covid-19-list-of-ideas-to-reduce-the-direct-harm-from-the |
# Why I'm Not Vegan
While many people in the effective altruism movement are vegan, I'm not, and I wanted to write some about why. The short answer is what while I'm on board with the general idea of making sacrifices to help others I think veganism doesn't represent a very good tradeoff, and I think we should put our... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uSTziekmCo8LGZQpH/why-i-m-not-vegan |
# Why don't we have active human trials with inactivated SARS-COV-2?
It seems to me that it should be relatively straightforward to grow SARS-COV-2 in vitro and then inactive it via UV radiation.
After we inactivated it we could give it to test subjects to see whether we get a good immune response.
Is there a reason... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LhEerFK4NvqgM6dMi/why-don-t-we-have-active-human-trials-with-inactivated-sars |
# [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government
_\[[crossposted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C6zP248j4pD5tgs5y/u-s-specific-free-money-usd5k-usd30k-for-independent) from the EA Forum\]_
_Epistemic Status: I spent the past couple of days look... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aHeLZS2gTQTcRBSsJ/u-s-specific-free-money-usd5k-usd30k-for-independent |
# COVID-19 response as XRisk intervention
_Thank you to the reviewers of this post: Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Robin Hanson, Anders Sandberg, Allison Duettmann, Andre Ornish, Jessica Taylor, and Blake Borgeson._
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
Effective Altruists and rationalists are some of the only people in the world tracking exist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxEqjrRLKAg8zR5WQ/covid-19-response-as-xrisk-intervention |
# Asymptotically Unambitious AGI
Original Post:
We [present an algorithm](http://www.tinyurl.com/bomai-anon) \[[updated version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.12186)\], then show (given four assumptions) that in the limit, it is human-level intelligent and benign.
Will MacAskill has commented that in the seminar room, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZhDWxDmwzuSwLjou/asymptotically-unambitious-agi |
# Organizing a Group Buy of Flour
We just had a huge shift from people eating out to eating in, and now a lot more people are baking, so we and a lot of people I know have had trouble finding grocery stores with flour in stock. The residential supply chain is struggling to keep up with demand. On the other hand, the c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8KnPrMDdCnSywf7uk/organizing-a-group-buy-of-flour |
# The One Mistake Rule
Epistemic Status: [The Bed of Procrustes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bed_of_Procrustes)
**If a model gives a definitely wrong answer anywhere, it is useless everywhere. **
This principle is doubtless ancient, and has doubtless gone by many names with many different formulations.
All mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGXtHCMhpuDzX2vvG/the-one-mistake-rule |
# The Value Is In the Tails
I have a friend who makes a (great) living as a professional gambler. He's originally from outside the US, but was living there during 2016 and, like everyone else in our friend group, started following the election. Since he loves to gamble, he also decided to bet on the election.
I'm not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/freWTrdfxwpn4imwn/the-value-is-in-the-tails |
# How to evaluate (50%) predictions
I commonly hear (sometimes from very smart people) that 50% predictions are meaningless. I think that this is wrong, and also that saying it hints at the lack of a coherent principle by which to evaluate whether or not a set of predictions is meaningful or impressive. Here is my att... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions |
# In Defense of Politics
_I wrote most of the following post in 2013 and cleaned up the draft to publish it now. If the post feels a bit dated, that's why._
Politics is seen as the [mindkiller](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Politics_is_the_Mind-Killer). Alyssa Vance from [http://rationalconspiracy.com](http://ration... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZFpA3ZbKndRpNbpXg/in-defense-of-politics |
# What We Owe to Ourselves
_\[Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/04/10/what-we-owe-to-ourselves/).\]_
> _“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.”_
> _**Steven Denn**_
Something that has been kic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3poxmLBEbkpXu25WQ/what-we-owe-to-ourselves |
# Curiosity: A Greedy Feeling
> _But what does the phrase “scientifically explicable” mean? It means that someone_ else _knows how the light bulb works._ \- [Eliezar Yudkowsky](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L22jhyY9ocXQNLqyE/science-as-curiosity-stopper)
> _In principle, I agree with the notion that it is unforgiva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTD8fbctGhH26Jahp/curiosity-a-greedy-feeling |
# Ethernet Is Worth It For Video Calls
I recently ran ethernet to my [desk](https://www.jefftk.com/p/making-a-standing-desk) at [home](https://www.jefftk.com/p/stepping-up-isolation), and I've been really impressed with how much it helps for video calls. Not only are garbled sections less common, I'm finding us talkin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mdcXfbiEe6mq2qXPa/ethernet-is-worth-it-for-video-calls |
# Law school taught me nothing
[This is a list](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1O85r4KTQZUi7kpTXT0ijSIIyGxxFgzWlM4QsFr-cvno/edit?usp=sharing) of all the topics a standard Civil Procedure class in law school covers, with the concepts I remember highlighted in blue and those I don't in red.
, [Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/01/taking-initial-viral-load-seriously/)
Epistemic Status: [Something Is Wrong On The Internet.](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QuzAwSTND6N4k7yNj/seemingly-popular-covid-19-model-is-obvious-nonsense |
# Review of "Lifecycle Investing"
*Crossposted from [my blog](https://blog.jessriedel.com/2020/04/11/review-of-lifecycle-investing/)*
### Summary
In this post I review the 2010 book “[Lifecycle Investing](http://www.lifecycleinvesting.net/)” by Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff. ([Amazon link here](https://www.amazon.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4wL5rcS97rw58G98B/review-of-lifecycle-investing |
# The History of Color in Chinese
The [linked post](https://www.lsusr.com/blog/history-of-color-in-chinese.html) is better because you can see the colors.
---
Older Chinese characters tend to be simpler. You can use this to measure the relative ages of ancient concepts.
For example, the Chinese characters for color... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SQwTttZA8hznDwZ4N/the-history-of-color-in-chinese |
# Leaving Things For Others
With covid I've seen many calls to leave things for others:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/wic-example-with-arrow-big.jpg)
* [Don't buy WIC-eligible items](https://twitter.com/SuitUpMaine/status/1239357171747491840), leave them for people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ugaP3G27EJ84yzpnu/leaving-things-for-others |
# How should we model complex systems?
By "complex", I mean a system for which it would be too computationally costly to model it from first principles e.g. the economy, the climate (my field, by the way). Suppose our goal is to predict a system's future behaviour with minimum possible error given by some metric (e.g.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2scaKmrBeufowY9ku/how-should-we-model-complex-systems |
# Worldwide "Portland" Slate Star Codex Meetup
We will be having the "Portland" SSC Meetup on April 26th at 12:30 PM US Pacific Time (UTC-8), via video chat (sorry, I'm not sure how to get rid of the misleading map). We're opening it up to anyone (why not?) so if you're interested in attending, don't worry about your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/psKzc7yqDcLDHu8XP/worldwide-portland-slate-star-codex-meetup |
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