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# March 16th: Daily Coronavirus Links
As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing daily update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 16th), by topi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6XxAJtR85a3yJQhF8/march-16th-daily-coronavirus-links |
# Zeynep Tufekci on Why Telling People They Don't Need Masks Backfired
In _The New York Times_ op-ed section [(archive link)](https://archive.is/iNBGr), information science professor [Zeynep Tufekci](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeynep_Tufekci) argues that health authorities damaged their own credibility by misleadin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tREnA5EvTikWf9Mfw/zeynep-tufekci-on-why-telling-people-they-don-t-need-masks |
# LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda
I’ve gone through a lot of introductions to this post but maybe this is the most honest one:
I am scared. Quite scared, actually. My chances of catching COVID-19 are actually quite low, and my chances of surviving it if I do are quite high, and I’m still scared. What if I get into a car... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda |
# How can we estimate how many people are C19 infected in an area?
My favorite dashboard is [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus): it has time series and maps and lets me choose which countries to graph. But it’s only showing confirmed cases, and doesn’t show any unit smaller than a country. Plu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TnboGnXjGQxmZFBky/how-can-we-estimate-how-many-people-are-c19-infected-in-an |
# Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths?
There are a lot of people who desperately want to give away their time, money, and expertise for other people’s lives right now. Where should they go? What projects already exist that need their resources, and specifically what do they need? What succes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3BrnMMz2ExEKvBiGC/where-can-we-donate-time-and-money-to-avert-coronavirus |
# Assorted thoughts on the coronavirus
_Epistemic status: Ramblings. Sorry for the tone. It was easier to write this way. I promise I won't be stubborn about any of this in the comments._
Is it that bad?
===============
After reading Mr. Money Mustache's [take on the coronavirus](https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9z4upQjF8XToyrK4/assorted-thoughts-on-the-coronavirus |
# Makeshift face touch warner
If you strap this device to your forearm, it vibrates when you raise your arm to
touch your face. Useful? Not sure, because one gets many false positives. Cheap? Yes. Applicable everywhere? Yes.
Upd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XgFQ2eYKvGXdtykqd/makeshift-face-touch-warner |
# Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics
_Roko Mijic, Alexey Turchin_
_Epistemic status: Many different uncertainties here, but the idea has some good evidence in favor of it and a high potential payoff._
Tl;dr: We should urgently investigate putting special human-s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L8KGSDchPpNo48PCM/ubiquitous-far-ultraviolet-light-could-control-the-spread-of |
# Can we use Variolation to deal with the Coronavirus?
Credit for the original idea comes from this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/fk5au8/corona_variolation/
The idea is to use [variolation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variolation) to innoculate young people and build up herd immunity to t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4wFRsDfZYeZfCzwe/can-we-use-variolation-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus |
# Request for Comments on Online LessWrong/SSC Meetup--Rump Session
**EDIT: We're doing it!**
**[See here for meetup announcement](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krn3Et4RYHwpqT9Ym/online-fun-lw-ssc-meetup-march-24).**
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
Anyone interested in an online LessWrong/SlateStarCodex meetup?
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x72ta8C3dKu2QRfPv/request-for-comments-on-online-lesswrong-ssc-meetup-rump |
# [AN #91]: Concepts, implementations, problems, and a benchmark for impact measurement
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJanptWZnZx5omwBz/an-91-concepts-implementations-problems-and-a-benchmark-for |
# Does the 14-month vaccine safety test make sense for COVID-19?
I was first wondering why, if we keep hearing about teams rapidly generating vaccines for COVID-19, the common wisdom is that it will take 18 months to start vaccinating at a large scale.
Turns out that the scaling up takes a few months, but the real bl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KMn8Pb2dXMkKMbbkS/does-the-14-month-vaccine-safety-test-make-sense-for-covid |
# Welcome to the Haskell Jungle
In my first year of engineering school (basically last year of undergraduate school in France), I became a fixture of the computer programming club. It was a weird nerd den, but there was always something to learn there. And not too late after I started skipping classes, a friend there ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RvN8C87ER4x7eY5Xx/welcome-to-the-haskell-jungle |
# My Functor is Rich!
*This is the first post in a sequence of write-up about my study of advanced Haskell concepts.
As mentioned in the
[intro to this sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RvN8C87ER4x7eY5Xx/intro-to-through-the-haskell-jungle),
this post does not pretend to be a tutorial, merely an exploration
of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KRb2x2RJjGbBMbE4M/my-functor-is-rich |
# March 17th: Daily Coronavirus Links
As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing daily update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 17th), by topi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mq9Kgp9F8JNnEAMEa/march-17th-daily-coronavirus-links |
# [UPDATED] COVID-19 cabin secondary attack rates on Diamond Princess
Update 19/03/20: Inspired by johnswentworth's [comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w49gTfuQEZxRDS6jM/covid-19-cabin-secondary-attack-rates-on-diamond-princess?commentId=W5thdiRuXHMS8TBuT), I implemented a multinomial distribution on the 4-berth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w49gTfuQEZxRDS6jM/updated-covid-19-cabin-secondary-attack-rates-on-diamond |
# Is the coronavirus the most important thing to be focusing on right now?
LessWrong has been and [is planning to](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda) devote a significant amount of attention to the coronavirus. But is that what we should be focused on? Is it more important ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J8JvZxkABWwdXSH9d/is-the-coronavirus-the-most-important-thing-to-be-focusing |
# What are good ways of convincing someone to rethink an impossible dream?
I sometimes get pitches from people who have grandiose plans.
Think of the term "physics crank," but applied to conceptual companies rather than perpetual motion machines. Two prominent examples (but far from the only ones):
* A calligraphe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mhn6E8TFeqo8GWrxa/what-are-good-ways-of-convincing-someone-to-rethink-an |
# Abstraction = Information at a Distance
Why is abstraction useful? Why use a high-level model rather than a low-level model?
An example: when I type “4+3” in a python shell, I think of that as adding two numbers, not as a bunch of continuous voltages driving electric fields and current flows in little patches of me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TTNS3tk5McHqrJCbR/abstraction-information-at-a-distance |
# Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication
Covid-19 has become a major topic for discussion with talk about many different interventions and ideas that might help, from 3-D printing parts for respirators to drafting medical students into hospitals to thorough hand-washing procedures.
However as ration... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication |
# Is the Covid-19 crisis a good time for x-risk outreach?
With what's happening with the coronavirus, I'd think that people would be particularly receptive to the ideas that:
1) We need to be prepared for long term risks.
2) Things with exponential growth are super scary.
3) We should [trust](https://xkcd.com/2278/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v5BxH985HFuvgdvW4/is-the-covid-19-crisis-a-good-time-for-x-risk-outreach |
# Robin Hanson on whether governments can squash COVID-19
Summary: Hanson argues that Western governments are unlikely to be competent enough to both squash COVID-19 and prevent new cases from entering from neighbouring lax countries. Final two paragraphs:
> Before we all jump off this cliff together, can we at least... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2w2sR6F3Eh849oPtR/robin-hanson-on-whether-governments-can-squash-covid-19 |
# Online Fun LW/SSC Meetup
In this online video-chat, we'll start with personal introductions for some sociability, and then do a Rump Session: That's where anyone can step up and give a four minute talk; then, if you want to keep talking, the audience votes on whether to permit another three minutes.
Talks can be sp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/524eREsi56JLuJMBB/online-fun-lw-ssc-meetup |
# How to optimize my time fighting COVID-19?
Hi all, I could use some advice. I care a lot about having a positive impact on the world through my work, and over the past few years, I've tried hard to put myself in a position to be of service in a moment when our institutions are struggling to make effective decisions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PhtpBg8PwA78iPwNY/how-to-optimize-my-time-fighting-covid-19 |
# My Bet Log
I occasionally make bets about future events. I think I probably should do that more often than I currently do. Given that, I think it's good practice to have a public record of the bets I've made and their outcomes, when available.
I'll try to keep this updated going forward, if I continue to make bets.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nt42N8At9grjRmttZ/my-bet-log |
# Cost of a COVID-19 test that uses shotgun RNA sequencing?
We seem to have sub-1000 Euro DNA sequencing. From my reading an emergency room visit in the US can cost over 1000 Euro for a person who thinks they have COVID-19. How expensive would it be do to shutgun RNA sequencing the way we use nucliodtide sequencing fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8s7WEWRsCSM6fGvLN/cost-of-a-covid-19-test-that-uses-shotgun-rna-sequencing |
# Alignment as Translation
[Technology Changes Constraints](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xEFeCwk3pdYdeG2rL/p/JJv8jmLYzYzdYkS3c) argues that economic constraints are usually modular with respect to technology changes - so for reasoning about technology changes, it’s useful to cast them in terms of economic constraints. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/42YykiTqtGMyJAjDM/alignment-as-translation |
# March 18th: Daily Coronavirus Links
*As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing daily update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 18th), by top... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5zyGmevPcjCYZgwY/march-18th-daily-coronavirus-links |
# Thinking About Filtered Evidence Is (Very!) Hard
_The content of this post would not exist if not for conversations with Zack Davis, and owes something to conversations with Sam Eisenstat._
There's been some [talk](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G5TwJ9BGxcgh5DsmQ/yes-requires-the-possibility-of-no) [about](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fhJkQo34cYw6KqpH3/thinking-about-filtered-evidence-is-very-hard |
# Sarah Constantin: Oxygen Supplementation 101
New post by Sarah on oxygen supplementation. Excerpt:
> COVID-19 causes shortness of breath and in severe cases requires artificial ventilation. There is a shortage of mechanical ventilators in hospitals, and a shortage of medical personnel to treat patients with severe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FXhbzy5WEW6S384x5/sarah-constantin-oxygen-supplementation-101 |
# What information, apart from the connectome, is necessary to simulate a brain?
Knowing a brain's connectome tells you which neurons can pass signals to other neurons, but presumably neurons differ in how they process that information. What are the most important things to know about an individual neuron in order to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmoFoMht6iKXmzhiK/what-information-apart-from-the-connectome-is-necessary-to |
# Online Fun LW/SSC Meetup, March 24
In this online video-chat, we'll start with personal introductions for some sociability, and then do a Rump Session: That's where anyone can step up and give a four minute talk; then, if you want to keep talking, the audience votes on whether to permit another three minutes.
Talks... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krn3Et4RYHwpqT9Ym/online-fun-lw-ssc-meetup-march-24 |
# SARS-CoV-2 pool-testing algorithm puzzle
According to [this article](https://www.timesofisrael.com/to-ease-global-virus-test-bottleneck-israeli-scientists-suggest-pooling-samples/), it's possible to test a pool of up to (at least) 64 people for SARS-CoV-2 at once, and the test will say whether *at least one* person ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pjLgE2efAozz82JmR/sars-cov-2-pool-testing-algorithm-puzzle |
# The Hammer and the Dance
I'm currently running the [Effective Altruism Coronavirus Discussion](https://www.facebook.com/groups/4147495108609573/) FB group. I saw a large number of posts each day, but [this](https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56) seems like the most importan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/spaLaaSgSfEJRd8wR/the-hammer-and-the-dance |
# Mediation From a Distance
Suppose we have an electronic circuit with two pieces: combinational logic and memory. The combinational logic is designed to behave as memoryless input/output logic gates - it has only short-term state, and computes some function. The memory reads the output of the combinational logic once... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DqfpcFwfeZHFe5J8h/mediation-from-a-distance |
# March 19th: Daily Coronavirus Links
*As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing daily update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 19th), by top... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WxuyLpTWvna8Xu29z/march-19th-daily-coronavirus-links |
# Near-term planning for secondary impacts of coronavirus lockdowns [assuming things don't blow up]
In this document, I attempt to discuss the impact of the coronavirus
lockdown and how to prepare for it. This is not focused on the direct
impact of coronavirus, but rather on the secondary impact of
precautions that pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/recEpKxGoLjzELWw7/near-term-planning-for-secondary-impacts-of-coronavirus |
# mRNA vaccine development for COVID-19
_Epistemological status:_
_A bunch of sources and a reasoning while reading the source. Go to the sources for the factual claims and reason about claims and say if you think I made a mistake. Join the conversation in the comments._
Between CureVac and BioNTech, two of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SQDKMFmJToYqhZT5d/mrna-vaccine-development-for-covid-19 |
# [Meta] Do you want AIS Webinars?
Ever now and then I talk to someone who tell me that they can not get good feedback on their research (e.g. the they don't get much responses on their alignment forum post), and been thinking about how to solve this? Also, right now is a good time to try out various online solutions.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbrsgHPJmGxeg7nXG/meta-do-you-want-ais-webinars |
# Blog Post Day II
_TL;DR: You are invited to join us_ [_online_](https://discord.com/invite/AHTePn) _on Saturday the 28th of March, to write that blog post you've been thinking about writing but never got around to. This is the second event of this type; [the first one went well](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NpZsC... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FredSMMXc77kMAquA/blog-post-day-ii |
# The questions one needs not address
Two years ago, I would have proclaimed a cautious bias towards thinking religion is a bad idea.
Since then, having read a bunch of “religious” philosophers and observed a bunch of “religious” people, I came to the conclusion that “religion” is a term I will start shying away ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QhMvZDyRLAHv3h4jN/the-questions-one-needs-not-address |
# Tagging (Click Gear Icon to filter Coronavirus content)
A couple weeks back, as coronavirus content took over LessWrong, we thought "Hmm, so... we've *almost* finished this new tagging feature. Maybe we should hurry to finish that up so that we can use it to help manage this avalanche of COVID-19 posts?"
For the pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XHKc98mpeojdWQF9q/tagging-click-gear-icon-to-filter-coronavirus-content |
# How long should someone quarantine to be sure they aren't contagious with Covid?
A key question for people figuring out good longterm isolation practices is "how long do I have to be symptom-free before I'm 'certified safe'?"
[This post on the typical-course-of-COVID-19](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pacxL5yyDsA9... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aTuuqmvExqwT9Zp5W/how-long-should-someone-quarantine-to-be-sure-they-aren-t |
# Coronavirus Tech Handbook
The [Coronavirus Tech Handbook](https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/) is a crowdsourced collection of tools, websites and data relating to the coronavirus outbreak.
If you are working on something to prevent or mitigate the Coronavirus pandemic, this might be a good place to share informat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xFBmxgv7npbox5GNZ/coronavirus-tech-handbook |
# Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID-19 infection
Excerpt:
* In Germany it is reported that more than 2 in 3 confirmed cases have anosmia.
* In South Korea, ... 30% of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases
* There is potential that if any adu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M4PBGS5hZoXkh6H2F/loss-of-sense-of-smell-as-marker-of-covid-19-infection |
# When to Donate Masks?
As people start coming into hospitals with the coronavirus, the number of masks we go through with [standard protocols](https://www.cdc.gov/infectioncontrol/basics/transmission-based-precautions.html) goes up enormously. These masks are normally single-use, and you put on a new mask every time ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FBiyBg48JXYDW8pwu/when-to-donate-masks |
# Could we use current AI methods to understand dolphins?
[I am told](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/42YykiTqtGMyJAjDM/alignment-as-translation#knDdAcREkpjh8qsvP) that unsupervised machine translation is a thing. This is amazing. I ask: Could we use it to understand dolphin language? (Or whales, perhaps?)
I don't cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9ffiQHYgm7SKpSeuq/could-we-use-current-ai-methods-to-understand-dolphins |
# Reflections on a no content January 2020 experiment
In January 2020 I did a zero content life. This was partly justified by the book “the info diet” but mostly based on a philosophy that proposes,
> _in a lifetime with limited hours, there is a choice to either consume or create. And I’d rather create than consume.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YFT4RkHySW8QxB68m/reflections-on-a-no-content-january-2020-experiment |
# Can crimes be discussed literally?
Suppose I were to say that the American legal system is a criminal organization. The usual response would be that this is a crazy accusation.
Now, suppose I were to point out that it is standard practice for American lawyers to advise their clients to lie under oath in certain cir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N9oKuQKuf7yvCCtfq/can-crimes-be-discussed-literally |
# Using the Quantified Self paradigma for COVID-19
[Petri Hollmén](https://www.facebook.com/petrihollmen/posts/10156628875511933) traveled to Tyrol on the 5th of March. He had a bottle of hand sanitizer with him, used it a lot and washed his hands like never before.
Sunday, the 8th he returned home to hear a day ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kj6cbcsMQFt4ntd9/using-the-quantified-self-paradigma-for-covid-19 |
# Using smart thermometer data to estimate the number of coronavirus cases
Kinsa Smart Thermometer Dataset
-------------------------------
Kinsa is a company that makes smart thermometers. A few years ago, they found that they could use the data that they got from their smart thermometers (most importantly the temper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yqbqeCzCuisWkMezo/using-smart-thermometer-data-to-estimate-the-number-of |
# Are veterans more self-disciplined than non-veterans?
I was having an argument with a friend the other day. It went vaguely like this,
Friend: "I'm not very disciplined. At some point I'm going to buckle down and train myself to be much more disciplined."
Me: "From experience and from what I know about humans, tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XYMDWNaYfa6EaE4P4/are-veterans-more-self-disciplined-than-non-veterans |
# Against Dog Ownership
This essay about dog ownership helped me empathise with dogs, and also caused me to update against getting a dog; if these ideas are accurate, it'd either be much more selfish and cruel than I previously thought, or else would require a lot more focused effort in order to give the dog a meaning... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XXsBCo6o8iv647ZoZ/against-dog-ownership |
# Deconfusing Human Values Research Agenda v1
On Friday I attended the [2020 Foresight AGI Strategy Meeting](https://foresight.org/event/2020-foresight-agi-strategy-meeting/). Eventually a report will come out summarizing some of what was talked about, but for now I want to focus on what I talked about in my session o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8F8TBzuZtLheJt47/deconfusing-human-values-research-agenda-v1 |
# COVID-19 transmission: Are we overemphasizing touching rather than breathing?
[SEE UPDATE AT BOTTOM]
Here's the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html) (yeah I know, [not always a reliable source](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4vWsBBjASgiQ2pn6/credibility-of-the-cdc-on-sars-cov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qujNaqEQTdfZDqYhk/covid-19-transmission-are-we-overemphasizing-touching-rather |
# What will the economic effects of COVID-19 be?
Obviously there's a lot of potential answers to this and it's hard to comprehensive. That's okay. The goal is to make incremental progress on the broad topic and identify specific points that would benefit from further research.
Note: These questions are intended to pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/owk7eBzwjPHNQbNeL/what-will-the-economic-effects-of-covid-19-be |
# LW Coronavirus Agenda Update 3/23
Last week I announced the [LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFTRgeaq5wceEfb2X/lesswrong-coronavirus-agenda), an attempt to increase knowledge by coordinating research between LW participants. This post is an update on that. If you want to skip to action ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/55kRJbgrmonDoWMSs/lw-coronavirus-agenda-update-3-23 |
# Beantown Stomp 2020 Retrospective
It's a bit weird to be writing a retrospective for an event that didn't take place, but there was still a lot of planning and organizing, both before and after the decision to cancel.
The week after [Beantown Stomp 2019](https://www.jefftk.com/p/beantown-stomp-retrospective) finish... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xW46jr2vG9ioZ4pz4/beantown-stomp-2020-retrospective |
# History's Biggest Natural Experiment
Faced with the threat of COVID-19, most countries in the world are suddenly, dramatically improving their hygiene and infectious disease control. This won't just slow the spread of COVID-19. As a byproduct, it will also suppress almost every other contagious disease. This creates... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DkGoaHQrLaAz4uApn/history-s-biggest-natural-experiment |
# What will be the economic effects of no restrictions
Many advocate against restrictions like travel bans, quarantine, lockdowns, etc., because they think the economic damage from those aren't worth the benefit in fighting the pandemic.
But clearly there's would also be economic impact from not putting down restrict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ch3e4hGH59Gdqp79r/what-will-be-the-economic-effects-of-no-restrictions |
# Breaking quarantine is negligence. Why are democracies acting like we can only ask nicely?
One of the earliest angles on the coronavirus pandemic was that this was a story of the draconian extremes that an authoritarian government can impose on its people. This angle on the events in Wuhan flourished especially ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pfRX8CkFYbYhgHdfS/breaking-quarantine-is-negligence-why-are-democracies-acting |
# How do you study a math textbook?
My own personal routine:
I start reading, whenever I feel there is a problem presented in the text (mostly theorems and examples but sometimes questions arise in the text itself), I’ll try solving it. I invest time in this endeavor proportionally to my belief that it can be solved ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dpt7MGDixG2hiFm4n/how-do-you-study-a-math-textbook |
# Adding Up To Normality
Related: [Leave a Line of Retreat](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3XgYbghWruBMrPTAL/leave-a-line-of-retreat), [Living In Many Worlds](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Kqs6GR7F5xziuSyGZ/p/qcYCAxYZT4Xp9iMZY)
> "It all adds up to normality." Greg Egan, _Quarantine_
You're on an airplane at 35,000 f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmCDYzXfQpXq9xpru/adding-up-to-normality-1 |
# How to Contribute to the Coronavirus Response on LessWrong
The LessWrong team is currently focusing full-time on the coronavirus ([Why?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J8JvZxkABWwdXSH9d/is-the-coronavirus-the-most-important-thing-to-be-focusing)). We’ve made some pretty big asks with open questions like [The LessWr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2vkYsqvMmdhFnt2Hi/how-to-contribute-to-the-coronavirus-response-on-lesswrong |
# Announcement: LessWrong Coronavirus Links Database 2.0
There is a massive amount of information and discussion about the coronavirus, and it can be challenging to keep track of all the things coming in from different sources.
To combat that, 11 days ago we [announced](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5LFEDHjCKgXJgJQ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PxFfAQZRhMNs6xFMH/announcement-lesswrong-coronavirus-links-database-2-0 |
# Advice on reducing other risks during Coronavirus?
I've seen tons of great, useful advice on reducing coronavirus risk, and prepping for the fallout. What I haven't seen is advice on reducing other day-to-day risks which would be unexpectedly dangerous (due to strained infrastructure, reduced medical capacity, etc) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/35QdeiBSAShCiDSue/advice-on-reducing-other-risks-during-coronavirus |
# Authorities and Amateurs
People are writing a lot about the coronavirus, and I've seen a lot of pushback on how pieces often haven't been written by people with epidemiology or public health credentials. For example, [Flatten the Curve of Armchair Epidemiology](https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7CRDYkTP2EsftxqbW/authorities-and-amateurs |
# True Habits
Photo by [My Name](https://unsplash.com/@zimbahcat?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/s/photos/hamster?utm_source=uns... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ACiLFcNs2aiJFRDn9/true-habits |
# [AN #92]: Learning good representations with contrastive predictive coding
**Newsletter #92**
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XE6LD2c9NtB7gMdEm/an-92-learning-good-representations-with-contrastive |
# Tales From the Borderlands
Cross-posted as always from [Putanumonit.com](https://putanumonit.com/2020/03/07/borderlands/)
* * *
Dear United States Customs and Border Protection, I was honored to receive your invitation to apply to the Border Pat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HwonzuM5PgSXhMDn/tales-from-the-borderlands |
# ODE to Joy: Insights from 'A First Course in Ordinary Differential Equations'
# Foreword
Sometimes, it's easier to say how things change than to say how things are.
> _From [3Blue1Brown: Differential Equations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_di4Zn4wz4)_
When you write dow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o3aTqo5zp6phkuiRw/ode-to-joy-insights-from-a-first-course-in-ordinary |
# AGI in a vulnerable world
I’ve been thinking about a class of AI-takeoff scenarios where a very large number of people can build dangerous, unsafe AGI before anyone can build safe AGI. This seems particularly likely if:
* It is considerably more difficult to build safe AGI than it is to build unsafe AGI.
* AI p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ihicZScgy2KznJFpZ/agi-in-a-vulnerable-world |
# Price Gouging and Speculative Costs
Let's say you see a potential pandemic coming, and you produce a product that could be critical. Maybe you make respirator masks, maybe you make ventilators, maybe you make PCR test reagents. You can see that if you and your competitors don't ramp up production and the pandemic ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wvNmoBeCuqNqwR9Yg/price-gouging-and-speculative-costs |
# What is the safe in-person distance for COVID-19?
I'm not sure where the 6' number comes from, and I'm skeptical it really holds up as something I'd be comfortable maintaining for an extended period of time (If someone with c19 coughed at me from 6' away I would not feel very safe). I'm guessing the 6' is more like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8PfQt2ikGnLye2mfg/what-is-the-safe-in-person-distance-for-covid-19 |
# How important are MDPs for AGI (Safety)?
I don't think finite-state MDPs are a particularly powerful conceptual tool for designing strong RL algorithms. I'll consider the case of no function approximation first.
It is certainly easier to do RL in a finite-state MDP. The benefit of modeling an environment as a finit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6gL83HMF6tvPHKQxW/how-important-are-mdps-for-agi-safety |
# What are the most plausible "AI Safety warning shot" scenarios?
A "AI safety warning shot" is some event that causes a substantial fraction of the relevant human actors (governments, AI researchers, etc.) to become substantially more supportive of AI research and worried about existential risks posed by AI.
For exa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLKKH9CM6NDiJBabC/what-are-the-most-plausible-ai-safety-warning-shot-scenarios |
# Hanson vs Mowshowitz LiveStream Debate: "Should we expose the youth to coronavirus?" (Mar 29th)
I'm running the first *LessWrong LiveStream Debate* *and Meetup*, an experiment in online events.
This Sunday (3/29) at noon PDT, Robin Hanson and Zvi Mowshowitz will debate Robin's policy proposal of deliberate infectio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xB9A7xymXY4xAqeMT/hanson-vs-mowshowitz-livestream-debate-should-we-expose-the |
# LW Team Updates: Pandemic Edition (March 2020)
**TL; DR**
==========
The LessWrong team has been throwing our combined might behind coronavirus efforts. As I see it, coronavirus is both of a problem immense proportion that we might be able to help with as well as a domain well suited to the development and applicat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3m36wSTiDkDFioD7/lw-team-updates-pandemic-edition-march-2020 |
# TikTok Recommendation Algorithm Optimizations
Update 2020-06-07: I have done more in-depth investigations into TikTok, whose results can be found at [tiktokodds.com](http://tiktokodds.com).
Summary
=======
The communities I am part of rely heavily on longform text for communication. The world seems to be moving aw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sXqAFdf3a5sA3HMCH/tiktok-recommendation-algorithm-optimizations |
# Coronavirus: the four levels of social distancing, and when and why we might transition between them
In this post, I describe four increasingly strict levels of social
distancing that have been considered in response to the coronavirus
situation. I then talk about how likely each is to succeed, how
sustainable it is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBPiZQYBF9niRAMSq/coronavirus-the-four-levels-of-social-distancing-and-when |
# March 25: Daily Coronavirus Updates
Aggregators
-----------
[**Clusters C19 literature for easier filtering and digestion**](https://maksimekin.github.io/COVID19-Literature-Clustering/plots/t-sne_covid-19_interactive.html)
Given a target article, identifies similar articles
Economics
---------
[**Balancing the c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wSYaEx3oCkkEPcfHf/march-25-daily-coronavirus-updates |
# When to assume neural networks can solve a problem
Note: the original article has been split into two since I think the two points were only vaguely related, I will leave it as is here, since I'd rather not re-post stuff and I think the audience on LW might see the "link" between the two separate ideas presented her... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hXAW9eaTDuhJyQEyX/when-to-assume-neural-networks-can-solve-a-problem |
# Russian x-risks newsletter March 2020 – coronavirus update
Russia recently [attracted](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/europe/putin-coronavirus-russia-intl/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2Jv0AnJuBFcydJXzg2TyqgfqpO_WTMBI_wHokez-30t-z_vh2q_l-EOkU) attention as it reported fewer CV cases than other countries. Probably the be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/odmbefAGjikAv8LLu/russian-x-risks-newsletter-march-2020-coronavirus-update |
# Some examples of technology timelines
> "Weather forecasts were comedy material. Now they're just the way things are. I can't figure out when the change happened."
## Introduction
I briefly look into the timelines of several technologies, with the hope of becoming marginally less confused about potential A(G)I dev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWmmYLCJft7u7XL5o/some-examples-of-technology-timelines |
# COVID-19 growth rates vs interventions
It’s been a couple of weeks since I [posted](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJBQ7GiyvFTBnSEEC/growth-rate-of-covid-19-outbreaks) regarding the growth rates of COVID-19 cases in various countries. Now, after these countries have implemented various control measures it is more c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZqW5wzyLhbayHy2QC/covid-19-growth-rates-vs-interventions |
# Coronavirus Research Ideas for EAs
Peter Hurford wrote a large, very comprehensive, research agenda over on the EA Forum. Here are all the questions:
> **Meta-Research**
>
> 1.) Just how bad are things right now? How bad might we expect it to get? What is the current state of play and what are various plausible s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wEzKtDrkkdTqmASmo/coronavirus-research-ideas-for-eas |
# What are the best online tools for meetups and meetings?
*tl;dr – If you have tried at least two telepresence tools, explain their relative strengths, and which one you prefer.*
A key question for both remote organizations, and apparently all social life now, is "what tools can best keep me connected to people in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ejFTPGHxetJfmfYfz/what-are-the-best-online-tools-for-meetups-and-meetings |
# The case for C19 being widespread
[GDoc version](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QozmQiLx9Vk80pnwJ1S8Ydt2ciLS05g16hIbb_b-W_4/)
Epistemic status: very, very uncertain. Please continue following official advice like social distancing etc.
I've seen all the previous discussions (including in this [thread](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ittEKJuwcSyMYuFxo/the-case-for-c19-being-widespread |
# mind viruses about body viruses
I was going to write this as a Slate Star Codex comment, but I’m going to make it a tumblr post tagging [@slatestarscratchpad](https://tmblr.co/mr_VjRMdGrF-gPcvkpyuSDQ) instead, since experience suggests it’s likely to be more widely and carefully read in this form. (Crossposting to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xhYE36x4bzjoCTAf5/mind-viruses-about-body-viruses |
# Bogus Exam Questions
Take a look at this multiple choice question from the Open University BSc on psychology. Can you tell what is wrong with it. This is sampled from a set of 15 questions, some of the others aren't this bad, some are guessing the teachers password. One of the questions requires that you know that s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gtsSRqLA7smzHCAW/bogus-exam-questions |
# Solipsism is Underrated
Consider two simple, non-exhaustive theories.
**Theory 1, Strong Materialism:** The only ontological primitive is matter. This is to say that there is nothing but physical things, and everything that happens can be reduced down to the material. Minds and consciousness must then be some emerg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h8haoRJh493f4su9G/solipsism-is-underrated |
# Coronavirus Virology: A Beginner’s Guide
Introduction
------------
This is aimed at those interested in a biological understanding of the basic features of a coronavirus, but who do not have a biological/chemical background to speak of—if you haven’t done biology or chemistry since high school, this should be for y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWLFaoEkfECvLtp9E/coronavirus-virology-a-beginner-s-guide |
# Rob Bensinger's COVID-19 overview
*Robby posted this to Facebook on March 15th, and just updated section 2 and 3 with new information, making this I think currently one of the best guides to how to respond to this whole situation. *
* * *
(*Added Jun. 4:* [*List of changes to this document.*](https://www.lesswrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CewTrCRfyCgW4NJQM/rob-bensinger-s-covid-19-overview |
# "No evidence" as a Valley of Bad Rationality
Quick summary of [Doctor, There are Two Kinds of “No Evidence”](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/08/doctor-there-ar.html):
* Author has a relative with cancer. Relative is doing well after chemo and is going to a doctor to see if it's worth getting more chemo to kill... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4Wct9gsLsNk9bAhv/no-evidence-as-a-valley-of-bad-rationality |
# [Update: New URL] Today's Online Meetup: We're Using Mozilla Hubs
That's right! Tomorrow/Today (Sunday Mar 29th) we're having an online LessWrong meetup in Mozilla Hubs. You're welcome to join and chat with some of the interesting people who read LessWrong, SSC, Overcoming Bias, and so on. I am personally quite exci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8wNBiFXYub5QxDbvr/update-new-url-today-s-online-meetup-we-re-using-mozilla |
# Chris Masterjohn on Coronavirus, Part 1
**Update (April 28th 2020)**: [Part 2](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2020/04/28/chris-masterjohn-on-coronavirus-part-2.html) published. I've also made at least one minor update to the [original text](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2020/03/29/chris-masterjohn-on-corona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ayXqa4CCmr7zpRMKE/chris-masterjohn-on-coronavirus-part-1 |
# Coronavirus: California case growth
In this post, I try to understand the case growth rate for coronavirus
cases in California, and try to address questions such as:
* How long will the case count continue to grow?
* At what level will the case count stabilize?
* To what extent will we be able to infer from the dat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mRkWTpH9mb8Wdpcn5/coronavirus-california-case-growth |
# Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 29 March
_**...[See the latest in my 2 Apr Brief!](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3npE798Z7A4m7WTx3/peter-s-covid-consolidated-brief-for-2-april)**_
COVID-19 is a rapidly changing situation and it is hard to keep up to date. However, right now I am following COVID-19 full t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Enqwi2MyixX97SJ22/peter-s-covid-consolidated-brief-for-29-march |
# Small Comment on Organisational Disclaimers
*\[This post has been sitting in my drafts since I first wrote it. I'm publishing it with minimal polishing for Daniel's* [*Blog Post Writing Day II*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ctXqQiCYkPsiLoqQj/reminder-blog-post-day-ii-today)*. Sorry that it's not as clear as it co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w2oBQ8sZJdSiiMexJ/small-comment-on-organisational-disclaimers |
# COVID transmission by talking (& singing)
TL;DR: This is an argument that (1) Talking is a major way that COVID-19 transmits from person to person (at least when people aren't wearing facemasks and goggles, and possibly to a much lesser extent even if they are), right up there with coughing, and probably more import... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jnq2A7A7ytgttQ5Ek/covid-transmission-by-talking-and-singing |
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