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# Do Women Like Assholes?
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/06/11/dating-assholes/) where a lively discussion is already going.
Thank you to Ben Pace for helping migrate this post to LessWrong.
* * *
Insofar as Putanumonit promotes a normative stance, it boils down to the following:
1. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/By3763jbxeaKfDtuH/do-women-like-assholes |
# Fight the Power
On power grabs, slogans, and how the collapse of authority leads to anxiety which leads to anger which leads to submission which leads to whatever is happening right now.
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/06/18/fight-the-power/).
* * *
Gurri’s World
-------------
> …the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jekpkQfNGzGnYokfi/fight-the-power |
# Neural Basis for Global Workspace Theory
*Epistemic Status: Intense amateur neuroscience here. Hoping to leverage Cunningham's Law to reach enlightenment.*
Kaj Sotala has a great sequence on [Multiagent Models of the Mind](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ZbmRyDN8TCpBTZSip), a sequence that's lead to a lot of fun develo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FEDNY4DLMpRSE3Jsr/neural-basis-for-global-workspace-theory |
# AI Benefits Post 1: Introducing “AI Benefits”
This is a post in a series on "AI Benefits." It is cross-posted from my [personal blog](https://cullenokeefe.com/blog/ai-benefits-1). For other entries in this series, navigate to the [AI Benefits Blog Series Index page](https://cullenokeefe.com/ai-benefits-index).
This... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGvtZMvSFELxoRqkZ/ai-benefits-post-1-introducing-ai-benefits |
# The Indexing Problem
*Meta:* [*this project*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy) *is wrapping up for now. This is the first of probably several posts dumping my thought-state as of this week.*
Suppose we have a simple causal model of a system:
_
_**Ben Pace:** Our next speaker is someone you'll all know as Alkjash on LessWrong, who has written an awesome number of p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hAvGi9YAPZAnnjZNY/prediction-compression-transcript-1 |
# SlateStarCodex deleted because NYT wants to dox Scott
[NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-real-name-so-i-am-deleting-the-blog/)
PS: One [suggestion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4M72iH4QXnkZpWhH/slatestarcodex-deleted-because-nyt-wants-to-dox-scott |
# Personal experience of coffee as nootropic
My life took a turn in 2015. That was when I first started drinking coffee on a regular basis. Not Americanos or Lattes, but '[Kopi](https://expatliving.sg/local-coffee-in-singapore-all-you-need-to-know-about-kopi/)' brewed with higher-caffeine Robusta beans using a 'sock' ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/srKWSk5cBmZFgLN3K/personal-experience-of-coffee-as-nootropic |
# New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name
In reaction to (Now the entirety of SlateStarCodex): [NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m9BdZgaigzSc6Dr72/new-york-times-please-do-not-threaten-the-safety-of-scott |
# [META] Building a rationalist communication system to avoid censorship
The recent disappearance of Star Slate Codex made me realise that censorship is a real threat to the rationalist community. Not hard, government mandated censorship, but censorship in the form of online mobs prepared to harass and threaten those ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GvBscuhfzREoQnkF/meta-building-a-rationalist-communication-system-to-avoid |
# Modelling Continuous Progress
I [have previously argued](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5WECpYABCT62TJrhY/will-ai-undergo-discontinuous-progress) for two claims about AI takeoff speeds. First, almost everyone agrees that if we had AGI, progress would be very fast. Second, the major disagreement is between thos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/66FKFkWAugS8diydF/modelling-continuous-progress |
# How do you Murphyjitsu essentially risky activities?
In the [CFAR Handbook](https://rationality.org/files/cfar-handbook.pdf) they have the following process instructions for Murphyjitsu:
> 1. Select a goal. A habit you want to install, or a plan you’d like to execute, or a project you want to complete.
> 2. Outline... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9HrvvuQSsk4MWfFL/how-do-you-murphyjitsu-essentially-risky-activities |
# Half-Baked Products and Idea Kernels
When I ask someone at work for a project proposal, I never want the person to go silent on me and put in 100 hours of solitary work, and then finally show me something and ask for my feedback. I always want to see a **half-baked product**.
 is a list of six public documents. Most interesting are the [Ethical Journalism Guidebook/Handbook](https://www.nytimes.com/editorial-standards/ethic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2aqsKbSQ2598FQmok/does-nyt-have-policies |
# Models, myths, dreams, and Cheshire cat grins
>"she has often seen a cat without a grin but never a grin without a cat"
* Alice in *Alice in Wonderland*, about the Cheshire cat (also known as the [Unitary Authority of Warrington Cat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characters_in_the_Thursday_Next_series#The_Cheshire_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxzQoXjtLGRWPoLkE/models-myths-dreams-and-cheshire-cat-grins |
# [AN #105]: The economic trajectory of humanity, and what we might mean by optimization
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can loo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWRJDwqHnmJhurXgo/an-105-the-economic-trajectory-of-humanity-and-what-we-might |
# Abstraction, Evolution and Gears
*Meta:* [*this project*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy) *is wrapping up for now. This is the second of probably several posts dumping my thought-state as of this week.*
It is an empirical fact that we can predict the day-to-day behavior of the world around us - posit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ahZQbxiPPpsTutDy2/abstraction-evolution-and-gears |
# Can I archive content from lesswrong.com on the wayback machine (internet archive, archive.org) ?
There are some great information on [lesswrong.com](lesswrong.com) (LW) that seems to be available publicly (I can access it in an incognito chrome window) and I would like to increase the chances of this information su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LBXGBgRENPHg2THbr/can-i-archive-content-from-lesswrong-com-on-the-wayback |
# What's the name for that plausible deniability thing?
There's a concept I remember reading about here, of the idea that you can't just suddenly refuse to answer dangerous questions. You have to consistently refuse to answer some random sample of totally normal questions, so that "refusing to answer a question" doesn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/csLABEqe8RbZtfBKE/what-s-the-name-for-that-plausible-deniability-thing |
# Quick Look #1 Diophantus of Alexandria
[https://www.storyofmathematics.com/hellenistic_diophantus.html](https://www.storyofmathematics.com/hellenistic_diophantus.html)
Diophantus of Alexandria, a 2nd Century Greek mathematician, had a lot of the concepts needed to develop an Algebra. However, he was unable to fully... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iiGefziaNXXjjeyAE/quick-look-1-diophantus-of-alexandria |
# Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
Betting money is a useful way to
* ensure you have some skin in the game when making assertions;
* get a painful reminder of when you're wrong, so that you'll update;
* make money off of people, if you're right.
However, I recently made a bet with both a monetary component ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AM5JiWfmbAytmBq82/betting-with-mandatory-post-mortem |
# Don't punish yourself for bad luck
_The following text first summarizes the standard moral-hazard model. Afterwards, I point out that it implies that you always get punished for bad luck. The third part is completely speculative: I speculate on how you should behave towards yourself.
_
**A brief summary of a mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f7gwQYYo4vm3KuKi2/don-t-punish-yourself-for-bad-luck |
# Preview On Hover
A couple years ago, Wikipedia [added a feature](https://blog.wikimedia.org/2018/04/18/how-we-designed-page-previews-for-wikipedia/) where if you hover over an internal link you'll see a preview of the target page:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YoFLDnAmMoFj76HPN/preview-on-hover |
# DontDoxScottAlexander.com - A Petition
Here's the petition Scott asked us to make.
This is a request for a specific action by the *New York Times* editors:
> We, the undersigned, urge the *New York Times* to respect Scott Alexander's request to not reveal his real name in a planned piece discussing the Slate Star... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eJGdAs2iopBRpxZNg/dontdoxscottalexander-com-a-petition |
# There's an Awesome AI Ethics List and it's a little thin
I recently stumbled upon the [Awesome Artificial Intelligence Ethics](https://github.com/marikyu7/awesome-artificial-intelligence-ethics) list, and was somewhat underwhelmed with its quality. While it has enough links to *look* like a good and useful [Awesome ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DcxHCyyKK3XJCapmR/there-s-an-awesome-ai-ethics-list-and-it-s-a-little-thin |
# A Personal (Interim) COVID-19 Postmortem
I think it's important to clearly and publicly admit when we were wrong. It's even better to diagnose why, and take steps to prevent doing so again. COVID-19 is far from over, but given my early stance on a number of questions regarding COVID-19, this is my attempt at a publi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B7sHnk8P8EXmpfyCZ/a-personal-interim-covid-19-postmortem |
# An agile approach to pre-research
My composition teacher in college told me that in some pottery schools, the teacher holds up your pot, examines it, comments on it, and then smashes it on the floor. They do this for your first 100 pots.
In that spirit, this post's epistemic status is SMASH THIS POT.
W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFF59AQt5QxnKaRpb/an-agile-approach-to-pre-research |
# Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks
Last week: [Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/covid-19-6-18-the-virus-goes-south/)
Off-topic reminder that this is happening: [New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name](https://thezvi.wordpre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MuhsMT7ykcP3Hmsoy/covid-6-25-the-dam-breaks |
# Institutional Senescence
Consider this toy model:
An institution, such as a firm, an association or a state, is formed.
It works well in the beginning. It encounters different problems and solves them the best it can.
At some point though a small problem arises that happens to be a suboptimal [Nash equilibrium](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qLau5mDs9hq44eNDo/institutional-senescence |
# Black Death at the Golden Gate (book review)
Book review: Black Death at the Golden Gate: The Race to Save America
from the Bubonic Plague, by David K. Randall.
Imagine a story about an epidemic that reached San Francisco, after
devastating parts of China. A few cases are detected, there's
uncertainty about ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QPgqZ78dBwM9dBFXN/black-death-at-the-golden-gate-book-review |
# Sunday June 28 – talks by johnswentworth, Daniel kokotajlo, Charlie Steiner, TurnTrout
This Sunday at noon (PDT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x46rsCLk6fyAFQsBz/this-sunday-lightning-talks-by-curated-lw-authors) for last w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iZ3AisoiB6qKY6Ctz/sunday-june-28-talks-by-johnswentworth-daniel-kokotajlo |
# Atemporal Ethical Obligations
_\[All the trigger warnings, especially for the links out. I’m trying to understand and find the strongest version of an argument I heard recently. I’m not sure if I believe this or not. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/06/26/atemporal-ethical... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HaRHgSbokGrWtLJug/atemporal-ethical-obligations |
# Missing dog reasoning
*(Talk given on Sunday 21st June, over a zoom call with 40 attendees. eukaryote is responsible for the talk, jacobjacob is responsible for the transcription.)*
**Ben Pace:** eukaryote is the next speaker. eukaryote is a famous writer of posts such as [Naked mole-rats: A case study in biologica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6P4WbyzEQGbtzSrxh/missing-dog-reasoning |
# Radical Probabilism [Transcript]
*(Talk given on Sunday 21st June, over a zoom call with 40 attendees. Abram Demski is responsible for the talk, Ben Pace is responsible for the transcription)*
Talk
----
**Abram Demski:** I want to talk about this idea that, for me, is an update from the logical induction result th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZM63n353vh2ag7z4p/radical-probabilism-transcript |
# Public Positions and Private Guts
_([Talk](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x46rsCLk6fyAFQsBz/sunday-jun-21st-online-talks-by-curated-authors) given on Sunday 21st June, over a zoom call with 40 attendees. Vaniver is responsible for the talk, jacobjacob is responsible for the transcription)_
**Ben Pace:** Thank ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yxicyJZaHLfFFs2c8/public-positions-and-private-guts-1 |
# AI safety via market making
_Special thanks to Abram Demski, Paul Christiano, and Kate Woolverton for talking with me about some of the ideas that turned into this post._
The goal of this post is to present a new [prosaic](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) (i.e. that uses current ML techniqu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YWwzccGbcHMJMpT45/ai-safety-via-market-making |
# Negotiating With Yourself
*(*[*Talk*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x46rsCLk6fyAFQsBz/sunday-jun-21st-online-talks-by-curated-authors) *given on Sunday 21st June, over a zoom call with 40 attendees. orthonormal is responsible for the talk, jacobjacob is responsible for the transcription)*
Talk
----
**orthonormal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyQFi564wrJ2xxJEy/negotiating-with-yourself |
# Map Errors: The Good, The Bad, and The Territory
What happens when your map doesn't match the territory?
There's one aspect of this that's potentially very helpful to becoming a rationalist, and one aspect that's very dangerous. The good outcome is that you could understand map errors more deeply; the dangerous out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eB8LNRcPG3oAXfsKx/map-errors-the-good-the-bad-and-the-territory |
# Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve
If you assume other people are the same as you along every dimension then you will over-estimate other people exactly as much as you underestimate them. It is a good first-order approximation to assume other people are like yourself.
Most people are in the middle of any given b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p3BCWtA2WMwzLmLd4/life-at-three-tails-of-the-bell-curve |
# Why are all these domains called from Less Wrong?
When I visit a Less Wrong page, the browser also attempts to load content from the following domains:
\* algolia.net
\* algolianet.com
\* cloudflare.com
\* cloudinary.com
\* dl.drop
\* dropbox.com
\* dropboxusercontent.com
\* google.com
\* googleapis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EWYfz5rAKDa9sanD9/why-are-all-these-domains-called-from-less-wrong |
# Five Ways To Prioritize Better
This piece is [cross-posted on my blog here](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/6/26/five-ways-to-prioritize-better).
I’m going to let you in on a secret of productivity.
Those people you admire, the ones who make you wonder how on earth they accomplish so much? Those ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RaxaXBNmStYe289gC/five-ways-to-prioritize-better |
# Mediators of History
*Epistemic note: all of the examples in this post are very simplified for ease of consumption. The core idea applies just as well to the real systems in all their complicated glory, however.*
When oil prices change, oil producers adjust in response - they drill more wells in response to higher ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qs8sEpKFDmAGBypJ6/mediators-of-history |
# Don't Make Your Problems Hide
I've seen a worrying trend in people who've learned introspection and self-improvement methods from CFAR, or analogous ones from CBT. They make better life decisions, they calm their emotions in the moment. But they still look just as stressed as ever. They stamp out every internal conf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aQtLDcDCf7QfYzCzx/don-t-make-your-problems-hide |
# A reply to Agnes Callard
Agnes Callard [says on Twitter](https://mobile.twitter.com/AgnesCallard/status/1276187891425841153):
> Sincerely can't tell which threatens culture of free thought & expression more:
> [@nytimes](https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes) de-anonymizing & destroying a (rightly) treasured blog for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ArSL3gTT5N96tHgvk/a-reply-to-agnes-callard |
# Self-sacrifice is a scarce resource
> “I just solved the trolley problem.... See, the trolley problem forces you to choose between two versions of letting other people die, but the actual solution is very simple. You sacrifice yourself.”
\- The Good Place
High school: Naive morality
---------------------------
Wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RApxEu3A4GnvGoEe2/self-sacrifice-is-a-scarce-resource |
# Gary Marcus vs Cortical Uniformity
***Edited much later to add:** WARNING I wrote this early on in my neuroscience self-education. It has a number of mistakes and confusions. Sorry. I’m keeping it posted as-is for historical interest only.*
# Background / context
I wrote about cortical uniformity last year in [Hum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8F8dagB4q4BzR5JNz/gary-marcus-vs-cortical-uniformity |
# Gödel's Legacy: A game without end
*Cross-posted at* [*Brick*](https://brick.do/d9fb6b23-ce6b-400f-94c1-685fc3647deb)*. A fun exploration, hopefully requiring only a medium level of technical familiarity. *
"Not with a bang but a whimper"
-------------------------------
It's 1930 and Kurt Gödel has just delivered ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gfAkp2wMy4zHrAfic/goedel-s-legacy-a-game-without-end |
# Optimized Propaganda with Bayesian Networks: Comment on "Articulating Lay Theories Through Graphical Models"
Derek Powell, Kara Weisman, and Ellen M. Markman's ["Articulating Lay Theories Through Graphical Models: A Study of Beliefs Surrounding Vaccination Decisions"](http://www.derekmpowell.com/publication/lay-theo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zvu6ZP47dMLHXMiG3/optimized-propaganda-with-bayesian-networks-comment-on |
# Thoughts as open tabs
I work better at night. At around midnight, I'm more prone to entering a state of relaxed focus, my mind making more lateral connections when reading or coming up with ideas that will likely have great positive impact on my personal life and work.
This happens after a hard workout too, or afte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLdpZBjjtirfPeRej/thoughts-as-open-tabs |
# How do takeoff speeds affect the probability of bad outcomes from AGI?
Introduction
------------
In general, people seem to treat slow takeoff as the safer option as compared to classic FOOMish takeoff (see e.g. [these interviews](https://aiimpacts.org/takeaways-from-safety-by-default-interviews/), [this report](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3cmbR4oeimCTJ67G3/how-do-takeoff-speeds-affect-the-probability-of-bad-outcomes |
# Web AI discussion Groups
After the success of Web Taisu, I have decided to organize a similar event.
Here are the rules, this document is an attempt to create common knowledge among the participants.
If you have an Idea for a topic to discuss
------------------------------------------
Post it to reddit on [https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/omj76gXR67jsG4hxs/web-ai-discussion-groups |
# Somerville Mask Usage
Two months ago, Somerville [made facecoverings mandatory](https://www.somervillema.gov/news/somerville-requires-mask-or-face-covering-all-indoor-and-outdoor-public-spaces), both indoors and out. A few weeks later the state of Massachusetts required them " [in public places where social distanci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grs9RakbZEdMiTRxX/somerville-mask-usage |
# How ought I spend time?
What factors go into your reasoning about assigning relative weights to
1. grinding through books
2. projects, taking a shot at the possibility of a contribution
3. reading current research
Personally, I never maintain 1 and 2 at the same time, and I tend to have >95% of my resources on e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GdAJ5QkdKfd76h548/how-ought-i-spend-time |
# AvE: Assistance via Empowerment
This might be relevant to the AI safety crowd. Key quote:
"Our key insight is that agents can assist humans without inferring their goals or limiting their autonomy by instead increasing the human’s controllability of their environment – in other words, their ability to affect the en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SGWSL3gLMqaJmiCyw/ave-assistance-via-empowerment |
# Situating LessWrong in contemporary philosophy: An interview with Jon Livengood
[Jonathan Livengood](https://jonathanlivengood.net/) is a current associate professor of philosophy at Urbana-Champaign, who hung around the first iteration of LessWrong in the late 2000s and early 2010s as a graduate student at the Univ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8GiTowD6XqTNzgCz7/situating-lesswrong-in-contemporary-philosophy-an-interview |
# Inviting Curated Authors to Give 5-Min Online Talks
If you've written a post that's been curated by the LessWrong team, then you're eligible to give a talk at one of our upcoming weekend events. If you'd like to give one, [**here's the form to fill out your availability.**](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLS... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9m9SniwdKsKyfjrMw/inviting-curated-authors-to-give-5-min-online-talks |
# Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020.
## Highlights
1. Facebook launches [Forecast](https://www.forecastapp.net/), a community for crowdsourced predictions.
2. Foretell, a forecasting tournament by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is now [open](https://www.cset-foretell.com).
3. [A Preliminary Look at M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWCnxjpXHrwzohcyQ/forecasting-newsletter-june-2020 |
# PSA: Cars don't have 'blindspots'
Not once in my life have I gone to drive someone's car and not seen incorrect mirror setup. [Infographic here](https://imgur.com/a/8S8sAln).
With correct adjustment, as cars leave your rear view mirror they enter your side view, and as they exit your side view they enter your perip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c7bFMMzkXfpJRrkmi/psa-cars-don-t-have-blindspots |
# [AN #106]: Evaluating generalization ability of learned reward models
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dEqjwwvYtg9NEmZoq/an-106-evaluating-generalization-ability-of-learned-reward |
# Evan Hubinger on Inner Alignment, Outer Alignment, and Proposals for Building Safe Advanced AI
It’s well-established in the AI alignment literature what happens when an AI system learns or is given an objective that doesn’t fully capture what we want. Human preferences and values are inevitably left out and the AI,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZGoHkRgANQpGHWnu/evan-hubinger-on-inner-alignment-outer-alignment-and |
# How to Find Sources in an Unreliable World
I spent a long time stalling on this post because I was framing the problem as “how to choose a book (or paper. Whatever)?”. The point of my project is to be able to get to correct models even from bad starting places, and part of the reason for that goal is that assessing ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/suNyc8gyy5srQozoB/how-to-find-sources-in-an-unreliable-world |
# Harry Potter and methods of rationality alternative ending.
**\*Spoiler Alert\***
**As it is clear from the title, following text deals with the plot of the book. I strongly recommend to anyone no familiar with the subject to read the book first and form a personal opinion. Also, I will be glad to see in the discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E5dAhTg2QaeYHKqh9/harry-potter-and-methods-of-rationality-alternative-ending |
# Second Wave Covid Deaths?
Two weeks ago I looked at covid cases by state, and divided states into three groups:
* First wave: states that had peaked and were trending down.
* Second wave: states that were rising, on a second wave with a slower build and later peak.
* Unclear: states with few cases or complex ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RsTcH5ew9jnFfYhrN/second-wave-covid-deaths |
# Noise on the Channel
*Articulation of these ideas in their present form owes a debt to interactions with Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, and Erin Tatum.*
Almost everyone will be familiar with the concept of signal vs noise. Literally, it's a signal processing concept which differentiates useful information which we're trying... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d6kDAyQtAjKBsqD9y/noise-on-the-channel |
# The "AI Debate" Debate
As far as I can tell, I have a disjoint set of concerns to many of the concerns I've heard expressed in conversations about [AI Safety via Debate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wo6NsBtn3WJDCeWsx/ai-safety-via-debate).
My main concern with AI Debate is this: each debater has an incentive to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L3QDs6of4Rb2TgpRD/the-ai-debate-debate |
# Does the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (self-)identify as an EA-aligned organization?
Effective altruism exists at the intersection of other social and intellectual movements, and communities. Some but not all of the organizations part of these communities focused on various focus areas of EA, such as existen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4gAeJn8FsAXyzogSQ/does-the-berkeley-existential-risk-initiative-self-identify |
# Goals and short descriptions
Outline
-------
I develop some contents—previously introduced in the Value Learning sequence by Rohin Shah—more formally, to clarify the distinction between agents with and without a goal. Then I present related work and make some considerations on the relation between safety and goal-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d4NgfKY3cq9yiBLSM/goals-and-short-descriptions |
# Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse
Previous Update: [Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/25/covid-6-25-the-dam-breaks/)
General Viewpoint Reading: [On R0](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/07/on-r0/), [Covid-19: My Current Model](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/covid-19-my-current-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5vi8j3yCcNPGpabuG/covid-7-2-it-could-be-worse |
# Open & Welcome Thread - July 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hdu3rxJsTtEHQZCjo/open-and-welcome-thread-july-2020 |
# The Book of HPMOR Fanfics
One of my friends made a compilation of fanfics of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. Ze gave me the okay to share zir work anonymously.
It has 91 stories (96 in the table of content, but 5 are missing), 12,244 pages, and 3'384'120 words "written by many exceptional muggles".
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uWM5auewdKjdJJG9t/the-book-of-hpmor-fanfics |
# Poly Domestic Partnerships
*This is a joint post with David Chudzicki. Neither of us are lawyers.*
Somerville just [introduced domestic partnerships](http://jtforward2.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2020-16-Domestic-Partnerships.pdf):
> Domestic partnership means the entity formed by people who meet the following ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wr9B24oqd8DbYddS9/poly-domestic-partnerships |
# Research ideas to study humans with AI Safety in mind
Premise
=======
Recently I spent some time thinking about ways in which studying the human side of human-machine systems would be beneficial to build aligned AIs. I discussed these ideas informally and people seemed interested and wanted to know more. Thus, I de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nqTkfrnE4CkbMtmHE/research-ideas-to-study-humans-with-ai-safety-in-mind |
# Splitting Debate up
into Two Subsystems
In this post I will first recap how debate can help with value learning and that a standard debater optimizes for convincingness. Then I will illustrate how two subsystems could help with value learning in a similar way, without optimizing for convincingness. (Of course this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8v5kc4dKdeTvvEkc8/splitting-debate-up-into-two-subsystems |
# High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now
I’ve been seeing a lot of comments lately about how the financial markets have gone completely wonky, efficient markets hypothesis looks crazy right now, etc. I don’t currently trade actively and haven’t run a lot of numbers, but just in terms of big-picture qualitative behavio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FtobfH87jPce2RmRQ/high-stock-prices-make-sense-right-now |
# If someone you loved was experiencing unremitting suffering (related to a constellation of multi-dimensional factors and processes, those of which include anomalous states of consciousness and an iatrogenic mental health system), what would you think and what would you do?
Before I get into this more tangibly, I wan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BYAia2q7HGuwqD7at/if-someone-you-loved-was-experiencing-unremitting-suffering |
# AI Unsafety via Non-Zero-Sum Debate
_In this post, I describe how to view debate as a way of assisting a human to spot flaws in an AI’s proposal. I then argue that the zero-sum assumption is critical for making debate work and that various seemingly-helpful modifications of debate might break it instead._
---------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRiMQELD5WYyvncTE/ai-unsafety-via-non-zero-sum-debate |
# Site Redesign Feedback Requested
For the past few months, the LessWrong team has been working on a redesign for the frontpage (which comes with some overall site redesigns).
We've currently got it up on our development branch on lessestwrong.com, and would appreciate some feedback before we roll it out. (This serve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kWY26b8StmkBr6oD/site-redesign-feedback-requested |
# The silence is deafening – Devon Zuegel
> Imagine you're at a dinner party, and you're getting into a heated argument. As you start yelling, the other people quickly hush their voices and start glaring at you. None of the onlookers have to take further action—it's clear from their facial expressions that you're bein... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/osds8vEkdTCvXErbf/the-silence-is-deafening-devon-zuegel |
# Replicated cognitive bias list?
Given the [replication crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis) in the social sciences, do we have, somewhere, a list of cognitive biases tied to replicated studies?
I could be missing something, but I didn't see anything on the [Wikipedia page]( https://en.wikipedia... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YTxfZgNhj7AfKcfZk/replicated-cognitive-bias-list |
# Tradeoff between desirable properties for baseline choices in impact measures
*(Cross-posted to* [*personal blog*](https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/tradeoff-between-desirable-properties-for-baseline-choices-in-impact-measures/)*. Summarized in* [*Alignment Newsletter #108*](https://mailchi.mp/05518aad6baf/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLhfRpDutEdgr6PKe/tradeoff-between-desirable-properties-for-baseline-choices |
# Causality and its harms
I'll assume that you do not hold fast to a rigorous system of metaphysics, in which case I think you can fancy me and accept that, if I so desire to struggle, I could reduce the concept of causality to one (or a chain of) probabilistic relationships between events.
Here's a naive definition ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fxFRYLGihYPv5uytJ/causality-and-its-harms |
# Classifying games like the Prisoner's Dilemma
*Note: the math and the picture didn't transfer. I may try to fix it in future, but for now you might want to just read it at the* [*original site*](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2020/07/04/classifying-games-like-prisoners-dilemma.html)*. \[Mod/Edit note: Should all... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KwbJFexa4MEdhJbs4/classifying-games-like-the-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)
Contrast with other recent spoiler-free review: [Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/26/spoiler-free-review-assassins-creed-odyssey/).
In part one of this review, the true spoiler-free section, I s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qmcae7hdtuErwkQAv/spoiler-free-review-witcher-3-wild-hunt-plus-a-spoilerific |
# Could Nixon going to China be a cause for the big stagnation?
The big stagnation is commonly said to have begun in the 1970s. There are many theories of possible causes that are already discussed, but haven't heard blaming Nixon before. Especially I haven't heard blaming Nixon going to China.
Timewise, that makes N... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5QXksk3hvpYqbdKi/could-nixon-going-to-china-be-a-cause-for-the-big-stagnation |
# Learning the prior
Suppose that I have a dataset D of observed (_x_, _y_) pairs, and I’m interested in predicting the label _y_\* for each point _x_\* in some new set D*. Perhaps D is a set of forecasts from the last few years, and D* is a set of questions about the coming years that are important for planning.
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SL9mKhgdmDKXmxwE4/learning-the-prior |
# Better priors as a safety problem
(_Related:_ [_Inaccessible Information_](https://ai-alignment.com/inaccessible-information-c749c6a88ce)_,_ [_What does the universal prior actually look like?_](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like/)_,_ [_Learning the prior_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/roA83jDvq7F2epnHK/better-priors-as-a-safety-problem |
# The Echo Fallacy
One of my Facebook friend posted this. Sharing anonymously with permission.
> The Echo Fallacy: When you shout "hello!" in a cave, and upon hearing the echo, conclude the cave walls are saying "hello" to you. More generally, when you put a certain idea into your environment, have it reflected back ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ugsGAHpp8RqWzjKYn/the-echo-fallacy |
# What should we do about network-effect monopolies?
Many large companies today are software monopolies that give their product away for free to get monopoly status, then do [the](https://github.com/uBlockOrigin/uBlock-issues/issues/338#issuecomment-496009417) [most](http://www.fbpurity.com/news/important-news-faceboo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ddNRbdQ778rNMoN7L/what-should-we-do-about-network-effect-monopolies |
# Quantifying Household Transmission of COVID-19
Overview
========
If someone in your household gets COVID-19, how likely are you to get infected? Is it possible to reduce this risk with interventions? How much of all transmission is between members of the same household? Is household transmission less bad because in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hZD6aJfRNZZxSn7d9/quantifying-household-transmission-of-covid-19 |
# (answered: yes) Has anyone written up a consideration of Downs's "Paradox of Voting" from the perspective of MIRI-ish decision theories (UDT, FDT, or even just EDT)?
The [Paradox of Voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_voting), simply stated, is that voting in a large election almost certainly isn't wort... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LMBmYuTNKWvrgf7Fx/answered-yes-has-anyone-written-up-a-consideration-of-downs |
# DARPA Digital Tutor: Four Months to Total Technical Expertise?
DARPA spent a few million dollars around 2009 to create the world’s [best digital tutoring system](https://www.ida.org/~/media/Corporate/Files/Publications/IDA_Documents/STD/D-5358.ashx) for IT workers in the Navy. I am going to explain their results... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbWBJGWyWyKyoxLBe/darpa-digital-tutor-four-months-to-total-technical-expertise |
# Dynamic inconsistency of the inaction and initial state baseline
Vika [has been posting](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLhfRpDutEdgr6PKe/tradeoff-between-desirable-properties-for-baseline-choices) about various baseline choices for [impact](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/measuring-and-avoiding-side-eff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w8QBmgQwb83vDMXoz/dynamic-inconsistency-of-the-inaction-and-initial-state |
# Spoiler-Free Review: Horizon Zero Dawn
Previously: [Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/07/04/spoiler-free-review-witcher-3-wild-hunt-plus-a-spoilerific-section/), [Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/0... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqxm6FsZ8ZQ4XsBpr/spoiler-free-review-horizon-zero-dawn |
# The Equation of Knowledge
My book [The Equation of Knowledge](https://www.amazon.com/Equation-Knowledge-Unified-Philosophy-Science/dp/0367428156) has just been published at [CRC Press](https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780367855307), and I'm guessing that it may be of interest to readers of LessWrong. The book ai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTLmF3QFtqWrqZ7EN/the-equation-of-knowledge |
# What are the risks of permanent injury from COVID?
I'm in my late twenties. I can easily find estimates of the risk of death, but I'm having trouble figuring out what the risk of permanent injury (e.g. fatigue) is. I figure someone on LW has probably already looked into this, so I thought I'd ask. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ssSkAmnx4hJK7aRj4/what-are-the-risks-of-permanent-injury-from-covid |
# Breaking Questions Down
Previously [I talked about](https://acesounderglass.com/2020/06/09/where-to-start-research/) discovering that my basic unit of inquiry should be questions, not books. But what I didn’t talk about was how to generate those questions, and how to separate good questions from bad. That’s because ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gkn5wKchLEkGKWfnz/breaking-questions-down |
# Models of Value of Learning
I generally subscribe to the [signalling model of higher education](https://www.amazon.com/Case-against-Education-System-Waste/dp/0691174652): “education” is mostly about signalling how smart and diligent you are, rather than actually learning useful skills. Under this model, higher educa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BKgFiAEdQBgwpepwy/models-of-value-of-learning |
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