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# FHI paper on COVID-19 government countermeasures
**In brief:** this is the largest data-driven study trying to disentangle the effect of individual countermeasures, and one of the most thoroughly validated ones. The authors ran multiple predictions with heldout data and various sensitivity analyses. The results seem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vnseRoExq9BCK2NRZ/fhi-paper-on-covid-19-government-countermeasures |
# How to validate research ideas?
Let's say you have an idea that you think might be interesting to investigate, possibly a new aspect in AI safety, maybe some new algorithm.
If you're an experienced researcher, you probably have plenty of intuition to think through it, consider the possible outcomes and decide wheth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhuPtcpP6r9jtEYFH/how-to-validate-research-ideas |
# Three characteristics: impermanence
_This is the sixth post of the "[a non-mystical explanation of the three characteristics of existence" series](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mf2MCkYgSZSJRz5nM/a-non-mystical-explanation-of-insight-meditation-and-the)._
Impermanence
============
Like no-self and unsatisfactorin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T8gD9mRDHnb2gyn9N/three-characteristics-impermanence |
# Reply to Paul Christiano on Inaccessible Information
In [Inaccessible Information](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyWyAJbedvEgRT2uF/inaccessible-information), Paul Christiano lays out a fundamental challenge in training machine learning systems to give us insight into parts of the world that we cannot directly veri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A9vvxguZMytsN3ze9/reply-to-paul-christiano-on-inaccessible-information |
# Pasteur's quadrant
In my recent post on [the case study of the transistor](https://rootsofprogress.org/transistors-science-and-invention), we saw that the research that led to its invention did not fall neatly into the categories of “basic” vs. “applied”, but in fact cycled rapidly between them.
An entire book—_Pas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HrPvAtwMq4rEtKAQN/pasteur-s-quadrant |
# A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Attitude
_\[As described in [the introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4RsFqp3YTpjWmZFN/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-introduction), this post lays the foundation for how to think about and approach conflict, and the attitudes we can take to do that more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3R59J4mDLihLrgwfk/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-attitude |
# Your best future self
*Crossposted from facebook. Not the sort of thing I typically write for LessWrong.*
*Epistemic status: poetry*
A thing I realized recently is that you can pray to your best future self.
Your future self knows exactly what you are going through, because they were once you. You don't have to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nh7Kmag33mF4x7GnY/your-best-future-self |
# Most reliable news sources?
I've longed assumed that the vast majority of what the news discusses is irrelevant in the long run, and not that well reported at that. But the world seems to be moving faster these days, and I have more of a sense that I want to know what happened this week, because it might impact what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YrqgbcmnyFXW22Wce/most-reliable-news-sources |
# Everyday Lessons from High-Dimensional Optimization
Suppose you’re designing a bridge. There’s a massive number of variables you can tweak: overall shape, relative positions and connectivity of components, even the dimensions and material of every beam and rivet. Even for a small footbridge, we’re talking about at l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pT48swb8LoPowiAzR/everyday-lessons-from-high-dimensional-optimization |
# Philosophy in the Darkest Timeline: Basics of the Evolution of Meaning
A decade and a half from now, during the next Plague, you're lucky enough to have an underground bunker to wait out the months until herd immunity. Unfortunately, as your food stocks dwindle, you realize you'll have to make a perilous journey out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hLcbXaqudM9wSeor/philosophy-in-the-darkest-timeline-basics-of-the-evolution |
# Wireless is a trap
I used to be an anti-wire crusader. I hated the clutter of cables, and my tendency to unconsciously chew on them if they got anywhere near my face. But running into bug after tricky wireless bug—mostly while trying to make my video calls work better—I’ve apostasized. The more I’ve learned about wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8hxvfZiqH24oqyr6y/wireless-is-a-trap |
# Self-help, hard and soft
**Summary**: _Four types of trying to be better._
**Confidence**: _90% that this beats the 0-D or 1-D idea. 50% that this is the best phrasing or 2D projection._
I get annoyed when I click a post and find that it's not [a list of things](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PX7AdEkpuChKqrNoj/w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q6vBd85cayD4k69gE/self-help-hard-and-soft-1 |
# Consciousness as Metaphor: What Jaynes Has to Offer
*Cross-posted from* [*my roam-blog*](https://roamresearch.com/#/app/hazard_blog)*. Greatly inspired by a lot of the stuff in Kaj's* [*Multi-Agent Models of the Mind Sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ZbmRyDN8TCpBTZSip)
This first paragraph of a recent SlateSt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYL3GnFNhBAS8fn26/consciousness-as-metaphor-what-jaynes-has-to-offer |
# Quarantine Bubbles Require Directness, and Tolerance of Rudeness
Berkeley recently introduced a rule where:
* You always wear a mask within 30' of people, except...
* You can have a 12-person "Quarantine Social Bubble" of people who interact with each other normally.
* You can rotate people in your Social Bub... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sMibqLDh4syidHy2c/quarantine-bubbles-require-directness-and-tolerance-of |
# Growing Independence
*Note: this is based on my experience with my two kids, currently four and six. It may not generalize as much as I think it does.*
People start out dependent on their parents for food, changing, contact, motion, and even sleep timing. Typically they end up as adults, no longer dependent on thei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FKB7iEergZaC7PvQf/growing-independence |
# An Illustrated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem
This is a proof of one of the many No Free Lunch Theorems in statistical learning. Rafael Harth already did a very good writeup [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JAD4u5dRwFApC3qYF/understanding-machine-learning-ii) of the same proof. I had a vision for doing som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w2KoExkxTuE4oLDpM/an-illustrated-proof-of-the-no-free-lunch-theorem |
# Legibility: Notes on "Man as a Rationalist Animal"
*Cross-posted on my* [*roam-blog*](https://roamresearch.com/#/app/hazard_blog/page/KXP4UVsZx)*. This post is meant to be part of a series that explores the ideas in samzdat's* [*The Uruk Series*](https://samzdat.com/the-uruk-series/)*, and it also serves as a standa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vDv8h9ekiZ7LEmHZ/legibility-notes-on-man-as-a-rationalist-animal |
# We've built Connected Papers - a visual tool for researchers to find and explore academic papers
Hi LessWrong. I'm a long time lurker and finally have something that I'm really proud to share with you.
After a long beta, we are releasing [Connected Papers](http://connectedpapers.com/) to the public!
Connected pape... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kjQXzkTGuixoJtQnq/we-ve-built-connected-papers-a-visual-tool-for-researchers |
# COVID-19: The Illusion of Stability
New infections have been declining at an almost adequate pace (10% per
week?) in most parts of the US, and probably the rest of the developed
world.
The overall reported new cases look more discouraging, for two reasons.
One reason is the increase in testing. I estimate th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sdwenSMoamauJtmpw/covid-19-the-illusion-of-stability |
# The "hard" problem of consciousness is the least interesting problem of consciousness
*Cross-posted from my* [*roam-blog*](https://roamresearch.com/#/app/hazard_blog/page/biOfG-7j0). *Nothing new to anyone who's read about these ideas, meant to be a reference for how I think about things.*
If you come up with what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TbZnx8HfS2HQKbAiZ/the-hard-problem-of-consciousness-is-the-least-interesting |
# GAN Discriminators Don't Generalize?
Disclaimer: I just started reading about GANs, so am almost certainly missing some context here.
Something that surprised me from the [BigGAN paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.11096):
> We also observe that D’s loss approaches zero during training, but undergoes a sharp upward ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9sQ2sj92Nus9DeKX/gan-discriminators-don-t-generalize |
# What does “torture vs. dust specks” imply for insect suffering?
There is a non-negligible probability that insects suffer. Many insects have nociception. Furthermore, the argument-by-analogy approach to determining whether an animal suffer works—an insect’s response to stimuli that would cause pain in other animals ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cm9KZmk5dtLEZqAw7/what-does-torture-vs-dust-specks-imply-for-insect-suffering |
# A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Communication
_\[As described in_ _[the introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4RsFqp3YTpjWmZFN/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-introduction), this post is about the different ways we communicate, the impact that can have on conflict, and how to choose the b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X8DAqE9t3iPzuGQr4/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-communication |
# Are there good ways to find expert reviews of popular science books?
As the title says. Non-expert reviews only evaluate how good the writing was, or how impressed the reviewer was by the ideas; but I typically want something that evaluates the actual scientific claims.
My one trick has been to look at Google Schol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zm3A5mxQKpLMd6XuQ/are-there-good-ways-to-find-expert-reviews-of-popular |
# More on disambiguating "discontinuity"
There have already been [numerous](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) [posts](https://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) [and](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AfGmsjGPXN97kNp57/arguments-about-fast-takeoff?commentId=phQ3sZj7RmCDTjfvn) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C9YMrPAyMXfB8cLPb/more-on-disambiguating-discontinuity |
# Public Static: What is Abstraction?
*Author’s Note: Most of the posts in* [*this sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy) *are essentially a log of work-in-progress. This post is intended as a more presentable (“public”) and higher-confidence (“static”) write-up of some formalizations of abstraction... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDGvHBDuMtcPd8Lks/public-static-what-is-abstraction |
# Build a Better Exobrain: Week 0 Overview
# BBE Overview
## One Sentence Idea
The spirit of [Hammertime](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rFjhz5Ks685xHbMXW/hammertime-day-1-bug-hunt), applied to the subject of [Obsessive Notetaking](http://users.speakeasy.net/~lion/nb/html/).
(On further consideration, [Gwern](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4PYERRrRjgFMmBNkF/build-a-better-exobrain-week-0-overview |
# BBE W1: Personal Notetaking Desiderata Walkthrough
# Personal Notetaking Desiderata Walkthrough
([Build a Better Exobrain](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4PYERRrRjgFMmBNkF/build-a-better-exobrain-week-0-overview) Week 1, Project 1)
A key step I took in becoming a better notetaker was listing out what I was lookin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xqQJ7K7G9bmCF35Hq/bbe-w1-personal-notetaking-desiderata-walkthrough |
# BBE W1: HMCM and Notetaking Systems
# HMCM and Notetaking Systems
## BBE W1C1
([Build a Better Exobrain](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4PYERRrRjgFMmBNkF/build-a-better-exobrain-week-0-overview) Week 1, Commentary 1)
Back in the old days, when the internet was bad for notetaking, some obsessive notetaker named L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8eXgAEq9fogYBfx4k/bbe-w1-hmcm-and-notetaking-systems |
# What past highly-upvoted posts are overrated today?
I've noticed the quality of LW posts varies greatly, even among top posts. Some of this is subjective or comes from what I want out of LW, but I suspect some posts are not nearly as useful or fun to readers in 2020 as their karma makes them appear.
Answers should ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zSq3fjk7xh4ijR3So/what-past-highly-upvoted-posts-are-overrated-today |
# [AN #103]: ARCHES: an agenda for existential safety, and combining natural language with deep RL
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gToGqwS9z2QFvwJ7b/an-103-arches-an-agenda-for-existential-safety-and-combining |
# Can Covid-19 spread by surface transmission?
I've seen a lot of claims lately that coronavirus doesn't spread on surfaces, and therefore we can stop worrying about packages (and probably takeout food, even uncooked?).
My understanding of the claim is something like "we just haven't actually seen any evidence of su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uyb48ttrhzvfLWhsH/can-covid-19-spread-by-surface-transmission |
# Self-Predicting Markets
_\[Confident but not novel. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/06/10/self-predicting-markets/).\]_
[The story of Hertz](https://thedeepdive.ca/bankrupt-hertz-stock-continues-to-attract-frenzy-of-retail-investors/) has fundamentally changed how I view... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ps9p3kWkNdKEK4m5q/self-predicting-markets |
# Keep: Move checked items to bottom
I've been using Keep as my main note-taking app for years, and our house recently switched after Wunderlist was [discontinued](https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100131493647512). It turns out they added a list feature, where checked items are sorted below unchecked ones:
[._
Many actions we could take to make the world better might also have negative effects, or might even be negative _overall_. In other words, altruistic actions often have [downsid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NdDrh3ZRJvuv7BcL9/good-and-bad-ways-to-think-about-downside-risks |
# Ideology/narrative stabilizes path-dependent equilibria
I originally published this on [Musings and Rough Drafts](https://musingsandroughdrafts.wordpress.com/2019/12/09/ideology-narrative-stabilizes-path-dependent-equilibria/), in December 2019. I'm posting it here, because I'm interested in folks' thoughts.
_\[Epi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hygKXCKDhqnGsBj8w/ideology-narrative-stabilizes-path-dependent-equilibria |
# Does equanimity prevent negative utility?
Even though I've only just begun dabbling in meditation, I believe that it is an incredibly powerful tool. I do have one worry though relating to what exactly counts as suffering. If I scald myself, this triggers my pain nerves to fire and it is possible that this produces n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a679XtNYGmjYz7Sr8/does-equanimity-prevent-negative-utility |
# Is there something like a "meta-encyclopedia"?
With Wikipedia showing increasing signs of ideological uniformity, I thought I should try to diversify my consumption of reference material. A potentially very useful tool for this purpose would be a "meta-encyclopedia", i.e. a place where users can find a list of all e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tx3LbGckz5A8neCGn/is-there-something-like-a-meta-encyclopedia |
# Cartesian Boundary as Abstraction Boundary
*Meta note: this post involves redefining several concepts in ways almost, but not quite, the same as their usual definitions - risking quite a bit of confusion. I'm open to suggestions for better names for things.*
Intuition: a model of humans (or AIs, or other agenty thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JasCkaPtZEJsYDX8H/cartesian-boundary-as-abstraction-boundary |
# 2020 LessWrong Demographics Survey
Edit: The survey is now closed. You can see the results [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yn4Aw6jejS3SHKuzu/2020-lesswrong-demographics-survey-results)
=============================================================================================================================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mf2XKPfT2Brj8mho7/2020-lesswrong-demographics-survey |
# Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave
Last time: [Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/covid-19-6-4-the-eye-of-the-storm/)
There has been a lot of news in the past week. Very little of it is actually about Covid-19.
That is not because Covid-19 went away. People are still ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZKPJm2GMuhyG5ni8o/covid-19-6-11-bracing-for-a-second-wave |
# Turns Out Interruptions Are Bad, Who Knew?
I’ve been known to accuse people who say open offices are “fine with a few mitigations” of not paying attention to the cost of their mitigations. I believed they shrunk their thoughts down to the point that not much was lost from an interruption, at the cost of only being a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/To5xcWvjN744rWEKQ/turns-out-interruptions-are-bad-who-knew |
# What gripes do you have with Mustachianism?
I'm referring to [Mr. Money Mustache's](https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/) blog and the philosophy that he preaches there.
I tend to agree with what he says, and perhaps border on being a fanboy. However, I never really [stress](https://www.marketplace.org/2017/09/19/ray-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P56PFkvQfu7vCK7sL/what-gripes-do-you-have-with-mustachianism |
# An online prediction market with reputation points
This is an advert for [an online prediction market in reputation points I’m making](https://freeideafutures.herokuapp.com).
It’s still in development, but currently you can sign up with Facebook and trade in two markets I’ve set up. The current scores are provision... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sLbS93Fe4MTewFme3/an-online-prediction-market-with-reputation-points |
# Down with Solomonoff Induction, up with the Presumptuous Philosopher
Followup to "[The Presumptuous Philosopher, self-locating information, and Solomonoff induction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEij9C9MnzEs8kaBc/the-presumptuous-philosopher-self-locating-information-and)"
In the comments last time, everyone see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/omqnrTRnHs3pSYef2/down-with-solomonoff-induction-up-with-the-presumptuous |
# Pragmatism and Completeness
Philosophers often get a bad wrap, not entirely without justification. The common complaint is something like "come on, do we really need to analyze this thing in so much detail? Can't we just get on with life since [the world keeps working whether we understand it or not](https://www.les... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPN6suErCaqHBihB7/pragmatism-and-completeness |
# For moderately well-resourced people in the US, how quickly will things go from "uncomfortable" to "too late to exit"?
Expanding from a comment thread: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jYwvwrNXyD3koHTM/open-and-welcome-thread-june-2020?commentId=FcZwHEWEt6EAP54qq](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jYwvwrNXyD3koHTM/o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KqENvXAaWcv5x74iG/for-moderately-well-resourced-people-in-the-us-how-quickly |
# Why do all out attacks actually work?
A surprising amount of rationalists agree that people can often do what seems impossible otherwise if they try really, really hard. It's something on the outset I wouldn't have expected a community of rationalists to believe - on the surface it seems like pure magical thinking -... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQx9jqzp2ZqGrPSn6/why-do-all-out-attacks-actually-work |
# [Link] "Will He Go?" book review (Scott Aaronson)
[https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4845](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4845)
From the beginning:
> [Will He Go?](https://www.amazon.com/Will-He-Go-Election-Meltdown/dp/1538751887), by legal scholar Lawrence Douglas, is, at 120 pages, a slim volume focus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eP6zJWA7DBjvKXc/link-will-he-go-book-review-scott-aaronson |
# Thomas Kwa's Bounty List
Recently I noticed three things:
* About once a week, I have questions no one I know personally can answer; maybe Stack Exchange or LW could, but I don't have time to write them up properly. Other times they're too difficult to be answered on SE/LW without some incentive.
* There are theor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hmTysyXvtg6wGgHja/thomas-kwa-s-bounty-list |
# Intuitive Lagrangian Mechanics
Lagrangian mechanics is an alternative formulation of Newtonian mechanics. Newtonian mechanics solves movements using successive approximations. Lagrangian mechanics figures out the whole path all at once. Lagrangian mechanics is useful for solving problems subject to certain constrain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rK3Des3ri5KPiiGXC/intuitive-lagrangian-mechanics |
# A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Comprehension
_\[As described in_ _[the introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4RsFqp3YTpjWmZFN/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-introduction), this post is about the value of fully grasping the whole picture, including the many sides to each debate, even whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2D2dcsAsK5zLKDup/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-comprehension |
# Testing Hanson's hypothesis about the uselessness of health care.
Robin Hanson has hypothesized that much health care is useless, and that if we radically cut health care (just the part that looks most useless, or even at random), there would be no effect on health outcomes.
People have been staying away from clini... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEGZcJtPS4L4qsB4f/testing-hanson-s-hypothesis-about-the-uselessness-of-health |
# Coronavirus as a test-run for X-risks
On the 27th February, I, like many of us, became fully aware of the danger humanity was facing (let’s thank [‘Seeing the Smoke’](https://putanumonit.com/2020/02/27/seeing-the-smoke/)) and put my cards on the table with [this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5okDRahtDewnWfFmz/see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EgdHK523ZM4zPiX5q/coronavirus-as-a-test-run-for-x-risks |
# Preparing for "The Talk" with AI projects
_Epistemic status: Written for Blog Post Day III. I don't get to talk to people "in the know" much, so maybe this post is obsolete in some way._
I think that at some point at least one AI project will face an important choice between deploying and/or enlarging a powerful AI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QSBgGv8byWMjmaGE5/preparing-for-the-talk-with-ai-projects |
# You Can Do Futarchy Yourself
Long ago, in the year 2000, Robin Hanson raised the question of whether we should [vote on values and bet on beliefs](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html). He proposes a form of government called futarchy, in which people vote on values and bet on beliefs.
Under futarchy, **valu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself |
# What are some Civilizational Sanity Interventions?
Lately, I've been thinking about the class of things that I'm calling "Civilizational Sanity Interventions." With that term I'm meaning to refer to technologies, institutions, projects, or norms that, if implemented, would improve the quality of high level decision ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cy8p6NMJ9kELYpR8Z/what-are-some-civilizational-sanity-interventions |
# Second Wave?
I've seen several people sharing things like [this NPR piece](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/12/876224115/coronavirus-second-wave-nope-were-still-stuck-in-the-first-one): "Is the U.S. at the start of a second wave? Have states reopened too soon? And have the recent widespread demonstr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mGFm2Q9cYjE2pHHCi/second-wave |
# List of public predictions of what GPT-X can or can't do?
Watching [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qPDwsCLbZc), (Edit: around 25:50) I was pleased to see a specific prediction made by the person claiming that GPT-3 couldn't do reasoning: He claimed that GPT-3's ability to _unscramble_ a word was not re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J9inYXMvAKEggFhyJ/list-of-public-predictions-of-what-gpt-x-can-or-can-t-do |
# How alienated should you be?
_Epistemic status: a post about values, where I’m confident the question is interesting but not confident my answer is correct. Factual statements are intended to be correct summaries, but I won’t be careful about citations. This post was written in January, and edited and published toda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ugtCDbYzzXhLssgFW/how-alienated-should-you-be |
# The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders
Credits to quanticle for bringing this paper to my attention.
From the abstract:
The claim that financial markets are efficient is backed by an implicit argument that misinformed "noise traders" can have little influence on asset prices in equilibrium. If noise traders'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zM3JdRXmM2Hj7GwHe/the-economic-consequences-of-noise-traders |
# Simulacra Levels and their Interactions
Previously: [Covid-19: My Current Model](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/covid-19-my-current-model/), [On Negative Feedback and Simulacra](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/03/on-negative-feedback-and-simulacra/)
This post aims to unpack and explain simulacra level... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qDmnyEMtJkE9Wrpau/simulacra-levels-and-their-interactions |
# Causality Adds Up to Normality
*For definitions and notational conventions used here, see* [*What is Abstraction?*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy/p/vDGvHBDuMtcPd8Lks)*.*
The world turns out to run on quantum mechanics, rather than classical. But classical mechanics still predicts the world exactly a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hgSKz3RkSSgZXrXNp/causality-adds-up-to-normality |
# Research snap-shot: question about Global Workspace Theory
*Cross-posted on my roam blog. Part of ongoing research on consciousness.*
I wrote an intro to some of my thoughts on consciousness [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYL3GnFNhBAS8fn26/consciousness-as-metaphor-what-jaynes-has-to-offer), which was more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LeDThkADcN2oHWEwC/research-snap-shot-question-about-global-workspace-theory |
# How to analyze progress, stagnation, and low-hanging fruit
Is progress slowing down?
Those who favor the stagnation hypothesis point out that, other than computing, most fields have seen only modest, incremental improvements. Our cars, planes, factories, food supply, antibiotics, and so forth are just improved vers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GFhprC728GLn38CwE/how-to-analyze-progress-stagnation-and-low-hanging-fruit |
# Superexponential Historic Growth, by David Roodman
This is research trying to do a similar analysis to Hanson's paper [Long-Term Growth as a Sequence of Exponential Modes](https://web.archive.org/web/20200227163524/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.pdf), and coming to different conclusions in some areas and the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CokhRDxWGgT4zpA7F/superexponential-historic-growth-by-david-roodman |
# Creating better infrastructure for controversial discourse
Currently there are three active forks of Lesswrong; Itself, the alignment forum and the EA forum. Can adding a new fork that is more focused on good discourse on controversial/taboo topics be a good idea?
I am an Iranian, and have a fair share of experi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhRYqMee72k4Kydzw/creating-better-infrastructure-for-controversial-discourse |
# What are the high-level approaches to AI alignment?
I'm writing a post comparing some high-level approaches to AI alignment in terms of their [false positive risk](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JYdGCrD55FhS4iHvY/robustness-to-fundamental-uncertainty-in-agi-alignment-1). Trouble is, there's no standard agreement on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H9sxfAZGGAsx5BdYD/what-are-the-high-level-approaches-to-ai-alignment |
# Where to Start Research?
When [I began](https://acesounderglass.com/2019/10/17/what-comes-after-epistemic-spot-checks/) what I called the knowledge bootstrapping project, my ultimate goal was “Learn how to learn a subject from scratch, without deference to credentialed authorities”. That was too large and unpredicta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e2M7BNG2oGJbwvTPy/where-to-start-research |
# Relating HCH and Logical Induction
I'd like to communicate a simple model of the relationship between [logical induction](https://intelligence.org/2016/09/12/new-paper-logical-induction/) and [HCH](https://ai-alignment.com/humans-consulting-hch-f893f6051455) which I've known about for some time. This is more or less... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R3HAvMGFNJGXstckQ/relating-hch-and-logical-induction |
# What is meant by Simulcra Levels?
Simulcra levels are a concept that have seen a lot of play on Less Wrong. I suspect that different people are using these concepts in slightly different ways, so I thought it might make sense to ask a question to provide a central location for recording these theories and helping pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yqEh9ewKwzig4kzyx/what-is-meant-by-simulcra-levels |
# Our take on CHAI’s research agenda in under 1500 words
*This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. It could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community.*
---
Last week I attended the annual workshop of Stuart Russell’s research lab at UC Berke... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPoaA5ZSedivA4xJa/our-take-on-chai-s-research-agenda-in-under-1500-words |
# Set image dimensions using markdown
When embedding an image using the markdown editor, is it possible to specify the image dimensions? It seems that both of these do not work:
Inline HTML:
```
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/25Magmb.png" width="123" height="123">
```
Some markdown variant I found on stackoverflow:
`... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3f7TLe8qWN6KLyJEv/set-image-dimensions-using-markdown |
# Results of $1,000 Oracle contest!
Almost a year ago, I posted [a contest to find the best questions to ask an Oracle AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai). I've been very slow in grading it, apologies for that, but here are the final results... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YbYFeZQWncy9Tzzq9/results-of-usd1-000-oracle-contest |
# High-School Algebra for Data Structures
A surprising amount of day-to-day software engineering can be expressed as solving equations like:
… finding the solution (x = “Alice”, y = “Liddell”), and then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AfkSop9dxAcP4NDGW/high-school-algebra-for-data-structures-1 |
# God and Moses have a chat
(This is an exploration through parable of a theological issue I’ve been thinking about lately, and is not meant to accurately reflect any historical personalities. Inspired in part by Scott Alexander’s excellent [Answer to Job](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/WnTvZdXz2q9ySfr4o/p/Lt8Rn4rkYwqiTX... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jTQaFKL6s3pppSNx4/god-and-moses-have-a-chat |
# Bathing Machines and the Lindy Effect
From Wikipedia:
> The **Lindy effect** is a theory that the future [life expectancy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy) of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival impli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MzDqTxDcKcstXwHs4/bathing-machines-and-the-lindy-effect |
# $1,000 Bounty for Pro-BLM Policy Analysis
I want to know what Americans with no particular relevant expertise should do in order to achieve the policy goals of the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. I'm offering a $1,000 bounty (payable directly to you or to a charity of your choice) to whoever provid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqTEpw832L2Ed8kR/usd1-000-bounty-for-pro-blm-policy-analysis |
# Image GPT
My hot take:
Not too surprising to me, considering what GPT-3 could do. However there were some people (and some small probability mass remaining in myself) saying that even GPT-3 wasn't doing any sort of reasoning, didn't have any sort of substantial understanding of the world, etc. Well, this is another... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wc8su8zASfA5xy6Qh/image-gpt |
# What are some good public contribution opportunities? (100$ bounty)
I haven't gotten into MSFP or the like, but I like helping with the world's plot anyway. I've won 25$ in the Oracle contest, so I've told Stuart to put it towards further public contribution opportunities such as contests. He suggested that I do a s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Np3z7gLZMsmKqnffW/what-are-some-good-public-contribution-opportunities-100usd |
# Likelihood of hyperexistential catastrophe from a bug?
I've been reading a fair bit about "worse than death" scenarios from AGI (e.g. posts like [this](https://arbital.com/p/hyperexistential_separation/)), and the intensities and probabilities of them. I've generally been under the impression that the worst-case sce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WMhiJf3xx9ZopC2tP/likelihood-of-hyperexistential-catastrophe-from-a-bug |
# [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media: Six-Month Update
The [mediums](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koa48Qio5LP48xMM2/mediums-overpower-messages) of the media I consume affect me more than the content so six months ago I committed to [one year without junk media](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQnJ4ZB... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5j9vH2DmiWkw8tNYW/personal-experiment-one-year-without-junk-media-six-month |
# [AN #104]: The perils of inaccessible information, and what we can learn about AI alignment from COVID
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world
HIGHLIGHTS
==========
**[Inaccessible information](https://alignmentforum.org/posts/ZyWyAJbedvEgRT2uF/ina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eE4QrWsdYQxNynbTM/an-104-the-perils-of-inaccessible-information-and-what-we |
# Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South
Last week: [Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/11/covid-19-6-11-bracing-for-a-second-wave/)
The verdicts are in. It is not an unexpected one. Unless conditions change, the path now seems set.
The Northeast is winning its battle. Unless... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KpsXKRMcajozNRtFg/covid-19-6-18-the-virus-goes-south |
# Sunday June 21st – talks by Abram Demski, alkjash, orthonormal, eukaryote, Vaniver
This Sunday at 11am (PDT), we're running a session of four "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors.
* Each talk will be 3-5 minutes followed by discussion. Afterwards, we'll have a hangout in breakout rooms. The talks will b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x46rsCLk6fyAFQsBz/sunday-june-21st-talks-by-abram-demski-alkjash-orthonormal |
# If AI is based on GPT, how to ensure its safety?
Imagine that an advance robot is built, which is uses GPT-7 as its brain. It takes all previous states of the world and predicts the next step. If a previous state of the world includes a command, like "bring me a cup of coffee", it predicts that it should bring coffe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zuAmKWxwADsW2H3u6/if-ai-is-based-on-gpt-how-to-ensure-its-safety |
# What's Your Cognitive Algorithm?
*Epistemic Status: I'm neither a neuroscientist nor an ML researcher, but am trying to figure out "what kinds of human thought are actually possible to replicate on silicon right now?". *
*Here's my best guess of how human cognition works. Please tear it apart!*
When I looked at GP... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n7vPLsbTzpk8XXEAS/what-s-your-cognitive-algorithm |
# Using a memory palace to memorize a textbook.
I spent the week prepping for finals. One is a year-long cumulative closed-book chemistry exam that I haven't had much time to practice for. I was worried about memorizing a few things:
* Periodic trends and exceptions
* The form and application of approximately 100... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rd8LTPFmygWpddJCq/using-a-memory-palace-to-memorize-a-textbook |
# Online Curated LessWrong Talks
This Sunday at 11am (PDT), we're running a session of four "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors.
* Each talk will be 3-5 minutes followed by discussion. Afterwards, we'll have a hangout in breakout rooms. The talks will be short and focus on presenting one core idea well, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/fSKREkrztjK9fv9iP/online-curated-lesswrong-talks |
# Practical Conflict Resolution: A Taxonomy of Disagreement
The [previous posts in this sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/wwcfhArpZt94pFkNG) were largely setup; still important, but not intended to contain significant new material. Now, finally, we get to the good stuff. Once you’ve got the [right attitude](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f8KsbMXxMt64EbyAz/practical-conflict-resolution-a-taxonomy-of-disagreement |
# The ground of optimization
*This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. This document could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community. The work involved in writing this cannot be separated from the sitting, chanting, cooking, cleaning, crying, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/znfkdCoHMANwqc2WE/the-ground-of-optimization-1 |
# The point of a memory palace
A memory palace seems like an inefficient way to learn, unless it's for a [memorization stunt](https://www.theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2015/mar/13/pi-day-2015-memory-memorisation-world-record-japanese-akira-haraguchi#:~:text=The%20world%20champion%20is%20Akira,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hac786nMpMLgSQ66A/the-point-of-a-memory-palace |
# Relevant pre-AGI possibilities
_Epistemic status: I started this as an AI Impacts research project, but given that it’s fundamentally a fun speculative brainstorm, it worked better as a blog post._
The default, when reasoning about advanced artificial general intelligence (AGI), is to imagine it appearing in a worl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjhZpZi76kEBRnjiw/relevant-pre-agi-possibilities |
# Coronavirus and Rents
With everyone staying home, cities make a lot less sense. Many people who previously wanted to minimize their commutes are working from home, and could live anywhere. People who wanted to live close to friends and family aren't seeing them. People who like to go to restaurants, bars, clubs, or ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7oTds7qoxJ42L62CP/coronavirus-and-rents |
# Types of Knowledge
This is a system for sorting types of knowledge. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
First, there is knowledge you could regurgitate on a test. In any sane world this wouldn’t be called knowledge, but the school system sure looks enthusiastic about it, so I had to mention it. Examples:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xHW7RoKTn6bdiZd5z/types-of-knowledge |
# When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow?
_\[Speculative philosophy. Originally on [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2019/04/28/wrong-clicking-on-cows/).\]_
### Three Stories
Imagine, for a moment, three young adults recently embarked on the same promising career path. The first comes home from work ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e2jmYPX7dTtx2NM8w/when-is-it-wrong-to-click-on-a-cow |
# Insights Over Frameworks
Once someone has made several insightful self-help observations, I think it's often tempting to then go and find some sort of cohering framework which can explain all of those observations. In this essay, I'll argue for why I think it can be better to skip the post-hoc theorizing altogether ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nR2ziT2sDbLpdKnJd/insights-over-frameworks |
# The affect heuristic and studying autocracies
General Juan Velasco Alvarado was the military dictator of Peru from 1968 to 1975. In 1964-5 he put down revolutionary peasant guerilla movements, defending an unequal and brutally exploitative pattern of land ownership. Afterward he became frustrated with the bickering ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FiBG3PXLWNoSZ5y32/the-affect-heuristic-and-studying-autocracies |
# My weekly review habit
Every Saturday morning, I take 3-4 hours to think about how my week went and how I’ll make the next one better.
The format has changed over time, but for example, here’s some of what I reflected on last week:
* I noticed I’d fallen far short of my goal for written output. I decided to allo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xrr3ArYr5r73Fad7s/my-weekly-review-habit |
# Plausible cases for HRAD work, and locating the crux in the "realism about rationality" debate
This post is my attempt to summarize and distill the major public debates about MIRI's [highly reliable agent designs](https://intelligence.org/files/TechnicalAgenda.pdf) (HRAD) work (which includes work on decision theory... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGxTpdBGbwCWrGiCL/plausible-cases-for-hrad-work-and-locating-the-crux-in-the |
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