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# Isn't Tesla stock highly undervalued?
I'm asking this here because I'm by no means an expert on Tesla or stock picking. My only relevant skill is "[order-of-magnitude perspective](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23orderofmagnitudeperspective&f=live)", a general ability to notice when a quantity seems to be out of whac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZpLTTKs9QQ9CZXfFz/isn-t-tesla-stock-highly-undervalued |
# English Bread Regulations
Yesterday I stumbled on the [Assize of Bread](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assize_of_Bread_and_Ale), which set the price of bread in England by the price of wheat with rules like:
> When a quarter of wheat is sold for 18d., then wastel bread of a farthing white and well-baked shall weigh ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MoJune4zKpneAFJ2r/english-bread-regulations |
# Reward functions and updating assumptions can hide a multitude of sins
## 1 Introduction
This post started off as a response to a pair of comments [by Rohin Shah](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbuwgyYG9WvtsErki/how-should-ais-update-a-prior-over-human-preferences?commentId=95cdyQ7npQ4fKeW3p), and [by Charlie Stei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYEkYX6vijL7zsKEt/reward-functions-and-updating-assumptions-can-hide-a |
# The Mechanistic and Normative Structure of Agency
Winning, Jason (2019). _The Mechanistic and Normative Structure of Agency_. Dissertation, University of California San Diego.
> **Abstract**:
> I develop an interdisciplinary framework for understanding the nature of agents and agency that is compatible with recent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QBHxfATzdASQcXwan/the-mechanistic-and-normative-structure-of-agency |
# Extracting Value from Inadequate Equilibria
_\[Much expanded from my comment_ _[here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/vz9Zrj3oBGsttG3Jh/p/kwaBa3KqBeAo8WE4m?commentId=vawY8KiyvDYBhkDYS). Pure speculation, but I’m confident that the bones of this make sense, even if it ends up being unrealistic in practice. Cross-posted f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4362cQTzfSDNaACDi/extracting-value-from-inadequate-equilibria |
# Why Artists Study Anatomy
I’ve been interested in drawing ever since I was a little kid. I like drawing people. I practiced a lot by looking at a cool picture of a character I like, and copying it as closely as I can.
The better I got at copying, the better my work became. I got some great results this way. I even ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LrbiRceCbP9g4Xkv7/why-artists-study-anatomy |
# Pointing to a Flower
Imagine I have a highly detailed low-level simulation (e.g. molecular dynamics) of a garden. The initial conditions include a flower, and I would like to write some code to “point” to that particular flower. At any given time, I should be able to use this code to do things like:
* compute a b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xotPYdAs7GfT9a9r/pointing-to-a-flower |
# Learning and manipulating learning
# 1 Introduction
This post will introduce our new paper "[Pitfalls of Learning a Reward Function Online](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.13654)", now [online for IJCAI2020](https://www.ijcai.org/Proceedings/2020/221).
It shows some of the difficulties with things we might think of as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpjjWDBXr88gzcYK2/learning-and-manipulating-learning |
# Bag-Drying Clips
With the amount of [buying from the commercial supply chain](https://www.jefftk.com/p/organizing-a-group-buy-of-flour) that we've been doing, I've been needing to divide up a lot of large containers. We typically use ziplock bags, and they're sturdy enough that they could be washed and reused. We mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DKCAeSpf4smnX8AAX/bag-drying-clips |
# Haskenthetical
This is a toy language I've been designing, or at least implementing, for about a year.
It's another take on "Haskell with a Lisp syntax". I'm aware of prior art: [Hackett](https://lexi-lambda.github.io/hackett/), [Axel](https://axellang.github.io/) and [Liskell](https://github.com/haskell-lisp/liske... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MpTyhXjkzcEY4u2jt/haskenthetical |
# Announcing Progress Studies for Young Scholars, an online summer program in the history of technology
I’m thrilled to announce a new online learning program in progress studies for high school students: [Progress Studies for Young Scholars](http://progressstudies.school/).
Progress Studies for Young Scholars launch... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cq2QZ5J3ofura5gsH/announcing-progress-studies-for-young-scholars-an-online |
# Signaling: Why People Have Conversations
How would you convince somebody that you’re an expert in quantum mechanics?
If you’re not an expert in this field, _you shouldn’t be able to effectively apply any method you can imagine._ If you could, then it wouldn’t be a useful signal.
If I told you about Schrodinger’s c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arkPug74zyfn9Ds3G/signaling-why-people-have-conversations |
# How to learn from a stronger rationalist in daily life?
As mentioned in [my previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPEfdgzukPcJCui9D/my-experience-with-the-rationalist-uncanny-valley), I currently estimate that I am about as strong in applied rationality as the average CS undergrad. But I know [Mark Xu](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oQYaRMYRjsTzNQkzu/how-to-learn-from-a-stronger-rationalist-in-daily-life |
# Source code size vs learned model size in ML and in humans?
To [build intuition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDwQddhqaTiMhbpPF/what-are-some-exercises-for-building-generating-intuitions) about content vs architecture in AI (which comes up a lot in discussions about AI takeoff that involve Robin Hanson), I've bee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jd9LajtGWv93NC8uo/source-code-size-vs-learned-model-size-in-ml-and-in-humans |
# Race for the Galaxy: 9 Choose 6
Spending a lot of time with [only](https://www.jefftk.com/p/stepping-up-isolation) [housemates](https://www.jefftk.com/p/shared-house-setup), we've ended up playing a lot of [Race for the Galaxy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_for_the_Galaxy). It's a card game that feels like a [G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eL4jpno9fgbEx2efZ/race-for-the-galaxy-9-choose-6 |
# Probabilities, weights, sums: pretty much the same for reward functions
*This post is a more minor post, that I'm putting up to reference in other posts.*
# Probabilities, weights, and expectations
You're an agent, with potential uncertainty over your reward function. You know you have to maximise
$$0.5R_1 + 0.5R... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pxWEKPHNBzXZWi2rB/probabilities-weights-sums-pretty-much-the-same-for-reward |
# [AN #100]: What might go wrong if you learn a reward function while acting
**Newsletter #100 (!!)**
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particula... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GYmDaFgePMchYj6P7/an-100-what-might-go-wrong-if-you-learn-a-reward-function |
# Comment on "Endogenous Epistemic Factionalization"
In ["Endogenous Epistemic Factionalization"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.08131) (due in a forthcoming issue of the philosophy-of-science journal [_Synthese_](https://www.springer.com/journal/11229/)), James Owen Weatherall and Cailin O'Connor propose a possible answe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8cWMX6L8St8k9pPRC/comment-on-endogenous-epistemic-factionalization |
# Orthogonality
TL;DR: I used to think the best way to get really good at skill $s_i$ was to specialize by investing lots of time $t_i$ into $s_i$. I was wrong. Investing lots of time $t_i$ into $s_i$ works only as a first-order approximation. Once $t_i$ becomes large, investing in some other $t_{j\neq i}$ produces gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7PZydf5jAY3nbMmf/orthogonality |
# How does publishing a paper work?
While I’ve never published a research paper and have no plans to do so, I realized I don’t even know how the process works. These are the bits and pieces I think I know (probably wrong about some):
* Papers are annoying 2-column pdfs
* Getting a paper published takes a lot of work ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhX3XEbDXguutLmLZ/how-does-publishing-a-paper-work |
# Wrapping and Centering
In the early days of the web screens weren't very large, and people normally wanted text to run from edge to edge. If you code up HTML by hand, [with no styling](https://motherfuckingwebsite.com/), this is still what you'll get. As screens got larger, though, this could lead to lines that were... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nifGgu3guCoqRNwRm/wrapping-and-centering |
# What are objects that have made your life better?
If I wanted to buy things to make my life better, what objects would I buy? What objects do you own that [spark joy](https://smile.amazon.com/Spark-Joy-Illustrated-Organizing-Changing/dp/1607749726 ) every time you use them?
I'm looking for statements like "X are th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22SuXhyWAqPMTsBPk/what-are-objects-that-have-made-your-life-better |
# Reflective Complaints
Frequently, I'll be having an argument with someone. And I'll think "Grr! They are doing Obnoxious Behavior X!" or "Arg, they aren't doing Obviously Good Behavior Y!".
Then I complain at them.
And... sometimes, they make the exact same complaint about me.
And then I think about it, and it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Gbv7tmJs3ADbhJX6/reflective-complaints |
# Wikipedia Edit War Update
A few months ago I [stumbled](https://www.jefftk.com/p/jacy-reese-born-jacy-anthis) into an edit war on Wikipedia. I noticed that Wikipedia's page on [Jacy Reese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacy_Reese) was being, essentially, guarded from having any mention that he previously went by his... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uezuauaMKinwDPZXs/wikipedia-edit-war-update |
# From self to craving (three characteristics series)
Buddhists talk a lot about the self, and also about suffering. They claim that if you come to investigate what the self is really made of, then this will lead to a reduction in suffering. Why would that be?
This post seeks to answer that question. First, let’s rec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r6kzvdia4S8TKE6WF/from-self-to-craving-three-characteristics-series |
# Get It Done Now
Epistemic Status: Reference
A while ago, I read the book [Getting Things Done](https://smile.amazon.com/Getting-Things-Done-Stress-Free-Productivity-ebook/dp/B00KWG9M2E/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3L33GXH5LQLSA&dchild=1&keywords=getting+things+done&qid=1590148818&sprefix=getting+t%2Caps%2C151&sr=8-1). Like most... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WhqgoByccmyKeTW8i/get-it-done-now |
# Post-crash market efficiency 1696-2020
WHAT DO past stock market crashes tell us about the weak-form [Efficient-Market Hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)? In a meltdown, do prices become more predictable?
In theory, they instantly adjust to all public information. Hence [technica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDCXgqQuWG8yx5H55/post-crash-market-efficiency-1696-2020 |
# The Oil Crisis of 1973
Last month I investigated [commonalities between recessions](https://acesounderglass.com/2020/04/19/what-happens-in-a-recession-anyway/) of the last 50 years or so. But of course this recession will be different, because (among other things) we will simultaneously have a labor shortage and a l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZynxaYzZD4bo4NEss/the-oil-crisis-of-1973 |
# Highlights of Comparative and Evolutionary Aging
_Author's Note: the purpose of this sequence is gears, i.e. physiology and molecular/cellular-level mechanisms, not evolution. This post contains only some bare-minimum background information as context for the rest; check out [Will Bradshaw's series](https://www.less... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ly3Wt4LPKhG38FByS/highlights-of-comparative-and-evolutionary-aging |
# AGIs as collectives
*Note that I originally used the term* population AGI, *but changed it to* collective AGI *to match Bostrom's usage in* Superintelligence*.*
I think there’s a reasonably high probability that we will end up [training AGI in a multi-agent setting](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/BXMCgpktdiaw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-collectives |
# In Search of Slack
Original article: [Studies on Slack](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/12/studies-on-slack/)
1
-
Proposition: If you have enough free resources you can evolve irreducibly complex features.
Imagine a bunch of yeast cells added to a barrel of malt when beer is being brewed. They have an ocean of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bj8eMN7famtkstPn5/in-search-of-slack |
# How can Interpretability help Alignment?
# Introduction
We’ve previously written about [what interpretability research might be](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/rSMbGFfsLMB3GWZtX/what-is-interpretability). In this post we think about how different kinds of interpretability research (even loosely formulated) ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uRnprGSiLGXv35foX/how-can-interpretability-help-alignment |
# Evolution is sampling error
*This is a linkpost for a (somewhat old) post on my blog [apomorphic.com](apomorphic.com). I'm posting this and other old posts here to get feedback and in hopeful preparation for some follow-on work[^formatting].*
[^formatting]: Some of the images are hilariously huge here due to LessWr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sYGXiMgqdTxZreDvk/evolution-is-sampling-error |
# Mazes Sequence Summary
This post attempts to summarize the key points of the Immoral Mazes Sequence, which begins [here](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/28/moloch-hasnt-won/), so they can be referenced without asking readers to get through an entire book first.
Due to the change in format, the posts will be s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yivoFJE5e9HRyjXQW/mazes-sequence-summary |
# What is your internet search methodology ?
I feel like the heuristics we use to search random tat on the internet are an incredibly larger part of our lives.
I wouldn't make a claim as extended as "googling skills are on the largest determinants of success in life", but I wouldn't look very suspiciously at someone ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cszckEuMZG55ATmJE/what-is-your-internet-search-methodology |
# LessWrong v2.0 Anti-Kibitzer (hides comment authors and vote counts)
About 10 years ago, I wrote the original [LessWrong 1.0 anti-kibitzer](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XbfdLQrAWTRfpggRM/lesswrong-anti-kibitzer-hides-comment-authors-and-vote). The original rationale for creating it was as a de-biasing tool to aid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftbtZy9dBmYC5StQz/lesswrong-v2-0-anti-kibitzer-hides-comment-authors-and-vote |
# Why We Age, Part 1: What ageing is and is not
*At the LessWrong European Community Weekend 2018, I gave a talk explaining the intuition behind non-adaptive theories of the evolution of ageing. This blog post and its followup are adapted from that presentation.*
When people find out that I did my PhD in the biology ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbDuEdtkMEcs5zSrT/why-we-age-part-1-what-ageing-is-and-is-not |
# Plague in Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
Spoiler Alert: Contains minor spoilers for Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey has become my quaratine game. A gorgeous tour of ancient Greece is a great antidote to never going outside.
One noteworthy thing in the game is how it deals with plague. You encounter it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MomeBBTym5rKrvg3h/plague-in-assassin-s-creed-odyssey |
# [Meta] Finding free energy in karma
As I've been posting here on LessWrong for a few months now, I wanted to share two things I've noticed about the karma system. These are ad-hoc observations, not rigorous empirical results, and while they might feel like ways to "cheat" the system, I hope by making them public and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZjQextWHAkkgyinur/meta-finding-free-energy-in-karma |
# What are the best tools for recording predictions?
Preferably, follow rules from "Best Textbooks in any Subject." I'm interested in people who have tried 2-3 prediction-recording tools, and can argue why one is better than the others.
I've decided I finally want to get gud at calibration.
I'm personally just inte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HzRLuTPZYbqPau6eu/what-are-the-best-tools-for-recording-predictions |
# Why Rationalists Shouldn't be Interested in Topos Theory
I spent a lot of the last two years getting really into [categorical logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_logic) (as in, using [category theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4DuwmtqF3HhNwvua/category-theory-without-the-baggage) to study logic),... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Msr65X9Y5NyqygaA/why-rationalists-shouldn-t-be-interested-in-topos-theory |
# An addendum on effective population size
**Follows from:** [Evolution is Sampling Error][follows]
[follows]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sYGXiMgqdTxZreDvk/evolution-is-sampling-error
A lot of people commenting on my previous post (mainly on Facebook) were confused about the difference between effective and cen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CMsBYhDtecNsYNp3d/an-addendum-on-effective-population-size |
# What is a decision theory as a mathematical object?
If we want a space of all decision theories, what mathematical objects does it contain? For example, if a decision theory is a function, what are its domain and codomain?
The only approach I'm familiar with is to view expected utility maximizing decision theories ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5g4vcgt2a5PEpHZbb/what-is-a-decision-theory-as-a-mathematical-object |
# Baking is Not a Ritual
I started baking about 2 years ago. Since I became a frequent supplier of baked goods in the office, a lot of people have come to me for baking advice. I’ve noticed a trend of comments about baking that all share a common root cause.
See if you can spot the common failure mode that led to the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sq3WkpyqGANT7hGRP/baking-is-not-a-ritual |
# A Taijitu symbol for Moloch and Slack
There is a balance between [Moloch](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TxcRbCYHaeL59aY7E/meditations-on-moloch) (which I think of as the forces of _exploitation_) and [Slack](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLLkWMDbC9ZNKbjDG/slack) (which I think of as the forces of _exploration_).... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o6ApmB6m2suDPq8ZE/a-taijitu-symbol-for-moloch-and-slack |
# Should I self-variolate to COVID-19
**\[This is currently in the speculative phase. I am not planning to do anything rash without very careful consideration.**
**Please do not read this question as an endorsement of the plan described herein.**
**Please use common sense and don't take dangerous actions without doi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wikvvdvnArDPnhwNG/should-i-self-variolate-to-covid-19 |
# Why aren’t we testing general intelligence distribution?
IQ supposedly measures general intelligence. Assuming the g-factor exists, why are we using IQ to measure it? IQ tests get tweaked so the end result will always form a normal distribution. I checked wikipedia to figure out why, but while it said some people cl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PXpq9fhECgqXABGw8/why-aren-t-we-testing-general-intelligence-distribution |
# Is fake news bullshit or lying?
New strategies for combating misinformation
-------------------------------------------
_A layperson-friendly view. Cross-posted from my personal blog, [First Principles](http://firp.substack.com)._
[Fake news is on the rise.](https://www.icfj.org/news/short-guide-history-fake-news-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zpfvsa73MgGhdCrRW/is-fake-news-bullshit-or-lying |
# Why We Age, Part 2: Non-adaptive theories
**Follows from:** [Why We Age, Part 1][part1]; [Evolution is Sampling Error][sampling]; [An addendum on effective population size][eps]
*Partially redundant with [Highlights of Comparative and Evolutionary Aging][redundant].*
[Last time][part1], I introduced three puzzles ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sg2kiwAAayvd5biAD/why-we-age-part-2-non-adaptive-theories |
# Your abstraction isn't wrong, it's just really bad
Epistemtic status: pretty sure
For a programming language to qualify as such, the only thing it needs is Turing Completeness. That means, at least in principle, it can be used to solve any (solvable) computational problem.
There are features besides Turing Complet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rey3XBe62drZsgu4i/your-abstraction-isn-t-wrong-it-s-just-really-bad |
# Predicted Land Value Tax: a better tax than an unimproved land value tax
_Epistemic status: I'm not an economist. Please look carefully for errors in my reasoning._
Weaknesses of unimproved land value tax
---------------------------------------
* Unimproved land value is hard to assess.
* If someone has a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTXGfjpE33KiQD67h/predicted-land-value-tax-a-better-tax-than-an-unimproved |
# Obsidian: A Mind Mapping Markdown Editor
I just saw this app today. It's made by the same people behind [Dynalist](https://dynalist.io/), which is similar to [Workflowy](https://workflowy.com/). I know other people on here have been on a big Roam kick, and I think Obsidian allows importing for Roam tags (or somethin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pXtkMhqkGJDwaW9z/obsidian-a-mind-mapping-markdown-editor |
# [Job ad] Lead an ambitious COVID-19 forecasting project [Deadline extended: June 10th]
_In brief: I’m hiring for a project manager for [Epidemic Forecasting](http://epidemicforecasting.org/), an independent project spun off from the Future of Humanity Institute that provides forecasting information to governments an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ecyYjptcE34qAT8Mm/job-ad-lead-an-ambitious-covid-19-forecasting-project |
# AI Safety Discussion Days
AI Safety Discussion Days
I’m going to organise an online AI Safety discussion day, roughly once per month. This is a space to discuss anything you want related to preventing catastrophic risk from AI, including governance, strategy, all technical AI Safety research, and also trying to und... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/32QD3tRfognNHN9xw/ai-safety-discussion-days |
# [AN #101]: Why we should rigorously measure and forecast AI progress
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/axzPYvcmWr2TwvnLi/an-101-why-we-should-rigorously-measure-and-forecast-ai |
# A taxonomy of Cruxes
\[Crossposted to [Musings and Rough Drafts](https://musingsandroughdrafts.wordpress.com/2020/05/27/a-taxonomy-of-cruxes/)\]
This is a quick theoretical post. I have little idea if this is interesting to others. Plus this is super finicky to read, but I don't know what to do about that.
In this... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p35o3BvDfyiPWkpv8/a-taxonomy-of-cruxes |
# Shuttling between science and invention
“[The Link Between Science and Invention: The Case of the Transistor](https://www.nber.org/chapters/c2141.pdf),” a 1962 paper by Richard Nelson at the RAND Corporation, provides a fascinating case study in invention at the frontiers of science, and [the relation between the tw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eXNa8iLo2emzDtTu7/shuttling-between-science-and-invention |
# Updated Hierarchy of Disagreement
In 2008 [Paul Graham](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Graham_(programmer)) created the [Hierarchy of Disagreement](http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html).
Then [Loudacris](https://www.createdebate.com/user/viewprofile/Loudacris) had the genius idea to make this hierarchy into ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCZEvt6TqHh86qHZH/updated-hierarchy-of-disagreement |
# Speculations on the Future of Fiction Writing
If we look at major movies, writing is generally a relatively small chunk of the overall budget. A handful of examples from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_budgeting):
* Unbreakable: story rights + screenplay ~8.1% of budget
* Tomb Raider - Cradle of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oGS326QqG6axSQ6JG/speculations-on-the-future-of-fiction-writing |
# Wrist Issues
I've been having trouble with my wrists on and off for years. The first time I remember, I think I was in seventh grade and I'd learned how to play a blues riff on the guitar that involved stretching widely while bending sharply at the wrist. It suddenly started hurting, and I needed to stop. This start... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/urvyvjBFSAnP3aPvN/wrist-issues |
# The principle of no non-Apologies
_Original [on my website](http://agentydragon.com/posts/2020-05-28-principle-of-no-non-apologies.html)_
**TL;DR:** Principle of no non-Apologies: “Distinguish between saying I’m sorry and apologizing. Don’t give non-Apologies.” Do not Apologize when you don’t agree that you fucked ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P4ksKAvuMS9GyDiZL/the-principle-of-no-non-apologies |
# Trust-Building: The New Rationality Project
> _“I did not write half of what I saw, for I knew I would not be believed"_
> _-Marco Polo_
> _It's enlighteningly disturbing to see specifically how the "distrust those who disagree" heuristic descends into the madness of factions._
> _-[Zack M Davis](https://www.less... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hDRsFjPpXJhaqtPAu/trust-building-the-new-rationality-project |
# Our Need for Need
_\[I wrote this in 2017, well before I had a LessWrong account. The style isn't necessarily what I would have chosen if I'd known I was going to share it here, but I think the topic might be of some interest anyway, so I'm reposting it with light edits. Originally on [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4JAD4w9d6SeLGGdRT/our-need-for-need |
# On the construction of the self
_This is the fifth post of the "[a non-mystical explanation of the three characteristics of existence" series](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mf2MCkYgSZSJRz5nM/a-non-mystical-explanation-of-insight-meditation-and-the)._
On the construction of the self
===============================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h2xgbYBNP4dLharg4/on-the-construction-of-the-self |
# Should we stop using the term 'Rationalist'?
This might be an unpopular opinion, but I really dislike the term 'rationalist' for four reasons:
1) It makes you sound self-aggrandizing. The term gives the impression that you think you are already rational and therefore smarter-than-thou.
2) It's already a term used ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dq8rwmWXXQ4D4T6YD/should-we-stop-using-the-term-rationalist |
# GPT-3: a disappointing paper
_\[Note: I wrote this post in late May 2020, immediately after the GPT-3 paper was released.\]_
This post is a compilation of two posts I recently made on tumblr.
For context: I have been an enthusiastic user of GPT-2, and have written a lot about it and transformer models more general... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZHrpjDc3CepSeeBuE/gpt-3-a-disappointing-paper |
# An overview of 11 proposals for building safe advanced AI
_This is the blog post version of [the paper by the same name](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.07532). Special thanks to Kate Woolverton, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Alex Turner, William Saunders, Beth Barnes, Abram Demski, Scott Garrabrant, Sam Eisenstat, and Ts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRsjBseRuvRhMPPE5/an-overview-of-11-proposals-for-building-safe-advanced-ai |
# Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening
Previous Editions: [Covid 5/14: Limbo Under](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/14/covid-5-21-limbo-under/), [Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/07/covid-19-5-7-fighting-limbo/), [Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JoYFn97yRw7oAEKk2/covid-19-5-29-dumb-reopening |
# How to (not) do a literature review
This is cross-posted from my [personal blog](https://katarinaslama.github.io/2020/05/17/OpenAI-blog5/), where I share thoughts on my work and learning process in the OpenAI Scholars Program. I thank Ruby Bloom for suggesting that I share the post here as well.
**OpenAI Scholars: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tRQek3Xb9cKZ2o6iA/how-to-not-do-a-literature-review |
# Simplifying Board Games
A few years ago I wrote about how I'd been playing a [simplified version of Carcassonne](https://www.jefftk.com/p/carcassonne-for-kids) with Lily. We stopped for a while, but recently we've played simplified versions of [Ticket to Ride](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ticket_to_Ride_(board_game... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aLhnLJMBwxAYY7Wbv/simplifying-board-games |
# The Presumptuous Philosopher, self-locating information, and Solomonoff induction
I need help working some ideas out.
**Background:**
If you're not familiar with the Presumptuous Philosopher, it's a thought experiment [due to Bostrom](http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/mys/mysteries.pdf) about predicting... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEij9C9MnzEs8kaBc/the-presumptuous-philosopher-self-locating-information-and |
# Covid-19: My Current Model
The post will be a summary of my current key views on various aspects what is going on, especially in places where I see many or most responsible-looking people getting it importantly wrong.
This post is *not *making strong evidence-based arguments *for *these views. This is not that post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P7crAscAzftdE7ffv/covid-19-my-current-model |
# Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff
_(Cross-posted from [personal blog](https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/possible-takeaways-from-the-coronavirus-pandemic-for-slow-ai-takeoff/). Summarized in [Alignment Newsletter #104](https://mailchi.mp/ba4d1765368f/an-104-the-perils-of-in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTKjRFeSjKLDSWyww/possible-takeaways-from-the-coronavirus-pandemic-for-slow-ai |
# My prediction for Covid-19
In writing a reply to Zvi’s [recent post on Covid-19 predictions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P7crAscAzftdE7ffv/covid-19-my-current-model) I realized I had been procrastinating on writing out my thoughts on Covid-19 in full. In this post I will explain in detail how I think about the C... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7YEoAdYd8YqYEjdNj/my-prediction-for-covid-19 |
# Overcorrecting As Deliberate Practice
Something that I've gotten a lot of value out of when learning many different things is to deliberately overcorrect when I notice I'm doing something the wrong way. For example, if I'm trying to hit the ball straight on a golf club, and I'm always hitting to the left, I make a d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vNenk66rEHG2JPhbt/overcorrecting-as-deliberate-practice |
# Feedback is central to agency
An agent seems to be a particular kind of device that creates a feedback loop between the world and itself. It seems to have a lot to do with devices whose behavior depends on the consequences of their own behavior: that is, devices that behave in ways that cause the overall system in w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y5ARNCYQEf2xc4SZS/feedback-is-central-to-agency |
# Sparsity and interpretability?
*A series of interactive visualisations of small-scale experiments to generate intuitions for the question: "Are sparse models more interpretable? If so, why?"*
Assumptions and motivation
-----... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/maBNBgopYxb9YZP8B/sparsity-and-interpretability-1 |
# Blog Post Day III
_You are invited to join us_ [_online_](https://discord.com/invite/AHTePn) _on Saturday the 13th of June, to write a blog post, e.g. that one you've been thinking about writing but never got around to. This is the third event of this type;_ _[the first one went well](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Dgts7RwZdeyRqrfD/blog-post-day-iii |
# Introduction to Existential Risks from Artificial Intelligence, for an EA audience
(This is an event post for LW-Israel. The main post is [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kfiqd3bAgaiN8QF2i/introduction-to-existential-risks-from-artificial), posted separately because event posts are geographical.)
Among the ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/hyp5jKKZC9BrF57iW/introduction-to-existential-risks-from-artificial-1 |
# Spoiler-Free Review: Monster Train
Epistemic Status: Covenant Rank 8 (meaning I’ve won 8 runs, one each on each of levels 0-7) after about 20 games played.
As is my template, a spoiler-free review seeks to answer the question “should I play this game?” without giving away any unnecessary information.
A strategy di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K27GK73Kq3GWbSHZc/spoiler-free-review-monster-train |
# Building brain-inspired AGI is infinitely easier than understanding the brain
*Epistemic status: Trying to explain why I have certain intuitions. Not sure whether people will find this obvious vs controversial.*
Part 1: Brains probably do some useful things in utterly inscrutable ways
==============================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PTkd8nazvH9HQpwP8/building-brain-inspired-agi-is-infinitely-easier-than |
# Air Conditioning
Growing up, I thought of air conditioning as extravagant. And AC for a large house, especially if it's poorly insulated or you only use a small part of the house, can get costly. On the other hand, AC for a single room is just pennies per hour, and if it lets you sleep well on a hot night or makes y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ti2nQMfSTTBdpy67b/air-conditioning |
# GPT-3: A Summary
> With massive size comes massive generalization ability: GPT-3 is competitive in many benchmarks w_ithout even tuning on the target task._ \[...\] Perhaps the most impressive part, though, is that even at such a massive scale, the model still scales smoothly in performance instead of plateauing, im... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w4RKBEGbvXah38PRi/gpt-3-a-summary |
# Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jYwvwrNXyD3koHTM/open-and-welcome-thread-june-2020 |
# Conceptual Engineering
Almost a decade ago, Luke Muehlhauser ran a series "[Rationality and Philosophy](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality_and_Philosophy)" on LessWrong 1.0. It gives a good introductory account, but recently, still dissatisfied with the treatment of the two groups' relationship, I've starte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iA87EfNKnREgdTJN/conceptual-engineering |
# Inaccessible information
Suppose that I have a great model for predicting “what will Alice say next?”
I can evaluate and train this model by checking its predictions against reality, but there may be many facts this model “knows” that I can’t easily access.
For example, the model might have a detailed representati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyWyAJbedvEgRT2uF/inaccessible-information |
# Dietary Debates among the Fruit Gnomes
_Somewhat experimental._
Among the Fruit Gnomes, there were two groups that were involved in an intense and annoying debate: the No-Banana-Eaters against the All-Fruiters. It was unclear who had started this kind of argument. But now it usually went as follows.
The All-Fruite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bujD9zhcb9Apii5J2/dietary-debates-among-the-fruit-gnomes |
# [AN #102]: Meta learning by GPT-3, and a list of full proposals for AI alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D3hP47pZwXNPRByj8/an-102-meta-learning-by-gpt-3-and-a-list-of-full-proposals |
# Effective children education
I am trying to find out what are the most cost-effective ways of (early) education. I have a 4-year-old daughter and that gives me about ~2 more years to figure this out and I am trying to put together as much material as I can. Given the age of my daughter, I’d like to “solve” something... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mMKKsbxGiNirGjsA9/effective-children-education |
# Focus: you are allowed to be bad at accomplishing your goals
When asked about what it means for a system to be [goal-directed](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/4dHMdK5TLN6xcqtyc/p/DfcywmqRSkBaCB6Ma), one common answer draws on some version of Dennett’s [intentional stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intentional_s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5WTgfX5Ly4ZNHWZD/focus-you-are-allowed-to-be-bad-at-accomplishing-your-goals |
# Status-Regulating Emotions
Elizer Yudkowsky wrote an interesting [comment](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152305725324228) on [What Universal Human Experiences Are You Missing Without Realizing It?](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/17/what-universal-human-experiences-are-you-missing-without-realizing-i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jvpPknEbbsjx44wty/status-regulating-emotions |
# Is a near-term, self-sustaining Mars colony impossible?
Some argue that Elon Musk's plan to build a self-sustaining colony on Mars is effectively impossible for the foreseeable future without discontinuous tech progress. (See e.g. Jess Riedel's claim [here](https://twitter.com/Jess_Riedel/status/1268308554399637504)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzvHfBYjtpJjH25ir/is-a-near-term-self-sustaining-mars-colony-impossible |
# A History Of Universalist Greed
\[Special thanks to [Ratheka Stormbjorne](https://www.aramjetbreaksthorns.com/) and [Shiloh Miyazaki](https://hivewired.wordpress.com/) for doing some of the research for this essay. All opinions expressed are my own however.\]
[In my essay on Fuzzies and Saddies](https://www.the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XWCWaSiz67WmX3wA6/a-history-of-universalist-greed |
# A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Introduction
This is the first post in a sequence aiming to create a practical guide to resolving interpersonal conflict (with a light focus on workplace conflicts). It draws on a lot of rationalist ideas without having any prerequisite readings, and with an attempt at acces... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4RsFqp3YTpjWmZFN/a-practical-guide-to-conflict-resolution-introduction |
# The Stopped Clock Problem
When a low-probability, high-impact event occurs, and the world “got it wrong”, it is tempting to look for the people who did successfully predict it in advance in order to discover their secret, or at least see what else they’ve predicted. Unfortunately, [as Wei Dai discovered recently](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e8Cgsh8zB5CYoYPEW/the-stopped-clock-problem |
# Russian x-risks newsletter spring 2020
Coronavirus is rampant in Russia, but the lockdown is easing for political and economic reasons. It was not very strict, in fact: many people were on streets, and infections per day grew 100 times during lockdown in April. The reported infection level peaked at the beginning of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2GQmMDZA5bBFd3T8e/russian-x-risks-newsletter-spring-2020 |
# The Skill of Noticing Emotions
The Skill of Noticing Emotions
==============================
_(Thanks to Eli Tyre and Luke Raskopf for helping teach me the technique. And thanks to Nora Ammann, Fin Moorhouse, Ben Laurense, Daniel Hynk, Nathan Young, Toby Jolly, Michael Ng, James Walsh and Jaime Sevilla for feedback... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GLPaZamxqkx7XJbXv/the-skill-of-noticing-emotions |
# Pantry Staples for DIY
It's often helpful to be able to build or fix things without needing to go to the store: perhaps it's urgent, perhaps you don't have a car, perhaps there's a pandemic on, perhaps you have an idea that you want to try out before your interest fades. In cooking, the foods that you keep on hand a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9H2hhY6gyPcZmu4Xb/pantry-staples-for-diy |
# Visual Babble and Prune
> _How do human beings produce knowledge? When we describe rational thought processes, we tend to think of them as essentially deterministic, deliberate, and algorithmic. After some self-examination, however, I've come to think that my process is closer to babbling many random strings and lat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z7b67r7MhshovHLwG/visual-babble-and-prune |
# Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm
Still standing by this: [Covid-19: My Current Model](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/covid-19-my-current-model/)
Previous update posts: [Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/29/covid-19-5-29-dumb-reopening/), [Covid 5/14: Limbo Under](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/avwaXavKqCetnzWkw/covid-19-6-4-the-eye-of-the-storm |
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