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# Open & Welcome Thread - August 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9nRfQBCGDdfMTmxgR/open-and-welcome-thread-august-2020-1 |
# How do you organise your reading?
Maybe this is just a personal problem, but I frequently find myself with just an absolute mess of things to read. Blog posts over several different sites, PDFs, paper books, podcasts and other content I intend to consume. I suspect a significant proportion of it falls through the cr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/54Bw7Yxouzdg5KxsF/how-do-you-organise-your-reading |
# Procrastination Paradoxes: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Summary
=======
Suppose that you are sitting in front of a big red button, and if you press it after waiting _t_ timesteps, you will receive _t_ units of utility. If you want to maximize the amount of utility you obtain, then when should you press it? Clear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5a9Xz3mhYF6c2Zwgn/procrastination-paradoxes-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly |
# Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data
Last time: [Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/07/30/covid-7-30-whack-a-mole/)
Testing. One could sum up the entire failure on Covid-19 as a failure of testing.
We have failed to test individuals. We have failed to ramp up testing capacity fast enoug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSwNjGwtDXNPBFkvy/covid-8-6-the-case-of-the-missing-data |
# Analyzing the Problem GPT-3 is Trying to Solve
I think that taking a theoretical computer science perspective to GPT-3 might help clarify some part of the debate.
My background is in theoretical computer science, and that's my prefered perspective to make sense of the world. So in this post, I try to rephrase the t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XdnCyorFzYskS7EtP/analyzing-the-problem-gpt-3-is-trying-to-solve |
# Sunday August 9, 1pm (PDT) — talks by elityre, jacobjacob, Ruby
This Sunday at 1pm (PDT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts).
* Each talk will be 3-5 minutes followed by discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/teKywSNTBX8BjNxSX/sunday-august-9-1pm-pdt-talks-by-elityre-jacobjacob-ruby |
# Exploring Two-Level Visual Mnemonic Compression
A Visual Mnemonic
=================
Mnemonics are tools for remembering things. I haven’t read Jonathan Haidt’s _The Righteous Mind_ for years, but I still have easy recall of his categorization of ideas that motivate moral reasoning. The mnemonic that has helped ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aX4rjshc9CKnbohtX/exploring-two-level-visual-mnemonic-compression |
# What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?
_cross-posted on the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SBbwzovWbghLJixPn/what-are-some-low-information-priors-that-you-find)_
I'm interested in questions of the form, "I have a bit of metadata/stru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LhetQpmDDhX5LrrMv/what-are-some-low-information-priors-that-you-find |
# Are Americans Becoming More Depressed?
> _The madness of depression is, generally speaking, the antithesis of violence. It is a storm indeed, but a storm of murk. Soon evident are the slowed-down responses, near paralysis, psychic energy throttled back close to zero. Ultimately, the body is affected and feels sapped... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9JxxwCuBFSjRt8nBE/are-americans-becoming-more-depressed |
# Is Wirecutter still good?
I have heard from several friends I trust that [Wirecutter](https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/) is no longer very reliable since being acquired by the New York Times in 2016, and that their Wirecutter-advised purchases have become pretty mediocre in the last year or two.
I'd be interested... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EoMyrQqKKPhPfx86L/is-wirecutter-still-good |
# The Manual Economy
_\[An attempt at fiction in the style of Scott Alexander. With bits of Lewis Carroll and Douglas Adams thrown in for good measure. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Empty](https://grandunifiedempty.com/2020/08/07/the-manual-economy/).\]_
The hallucination started out so normally, I completely fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zJ2i8uPGjywD5W5Jw/the-manual-economy |
# How much is known about the "inference rules" of logical induction?
Context: [Logical Induction](https://intelligence.org/files/LogicalInduction.pdf) is a framework that makes sense of intuitively plausible statements like "the probability that the $10^{10^{10^{10}}}$th digit of $\pi$ is odd is about $0.5$".
People... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SLeijz6Lp8GSHMkra/how-much-is-known-about-the-inference-rules-of-logical |
# Evaluating Opus
Several months ago, I [proposed](http://jefftk.com/p/series-singing) a bucket brigade approach to singing with friends over the Internet. Recently, Glenn and I have been working on an implementation ([prototype source code](https://github.com/gwillen/solstice-audio-test)). We can't use [WebRTC](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nNGKjFPoEywMatRFe/evaluating-opus |
# The Fusion Power Generator Scenario
Suppose, a few years from now, I prompt GPT-N to design a cheap, simple fusion power generator - something I could build in my garage and use to power my house. GPT-N succeeds. I build the fusion power generator, find that it works exactly as advertised, share the plans online, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2NaAhMPGub8F2Pbr7/the-fusion-power-generator-scenario |
# 10/50/90% chance of GPT-N Transformative AI?
In [Developmental Stages of GPTs](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nDR23ksSQJ98WNDm/developmental-stages-of-gpts), orthonormal explains why we might need "zero more cognitive breakthroughs" to reach transformative AI, aka "an AI capable of making an Industrial Revolution ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8DRKBKvM9JXrqbWH/10-50-90-chance-of-gpt-n-transformative-ai |
# Existential Risk is a single category
A lot of people speak in terms of "existential risk from artificial intelligence" or "existential risk from nuclear war." While this is fine to some approximation, I rarely see it pointed out that this is not how risk works. Existential risk refers to the probability of a set of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oXooAzmi6BFdcZHEL/existential-risk-is-a-single-category |
# Social Interfaces
Programmers are familiar with navigating interfaces and protocols. Whether it’s ASCII, a function signature, an OOP interface, HTTP, or gRPC, these kinds of interfaces are ubiquitous, exist at all levels of abstraction, and are necessary for connecting distinct modules to form a coherent system.
I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PbDprtcjF7J4XAaxr/social-interfaces |
# Fantasy-Forbidding Expert Opinion
I believe in fairies! I do! I do!
...Except I don't, and neither do you.
"Why don't you believe in fairies?" I ask.
"*What an absurd question,*" you retort, "it's because fairies don't exist." However, the many times when you thought something so-obviously-didn't-exist and were p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BXcojxBhz7GBWd4vX/fantasy-forbidding-expert-opinion |
# Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
AI forecasting is an important research area but lacking in a general direction. To address this issue we present a research agenda for AI forecasting that has been generated using the Delphi technique to elicit opinion from 15 leading researchers on the topic (the majority... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qsay72ct2KTmJ2hxc/forecasting-ai-progress-a-research-agenda |
# Writing Piano Songs: A Journey
This is an account of how I got good at writing piano songs. My first instinct is to write a perfect formalization and algorithm of “how to write a good piano song”, but that would be a lie. Instead, this is a story of slow progression and learned heuristics. I use some music jargon, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ytwzCo5XocksJKa42/writing-piano-songs-a-journey |
#
Swiss Political System: More than You ever Wanted to Know (III.)
[Previous part](http://250bpm.com/blog:162)
When I've mentioned the failed referendum to limit urban sprawl to a Swiss friend he nodded and casually noted that government is already introducing some anti-suburbanization legislation.
Wait! What?
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fR9amAhzFktD5nMqi/swiss-political-system-more-than-you-ever-wanted-to-know-iii |
# Moloch and multi-level selection
I'm new to the LW community, and I've been reading the seminal works. After reading Scott Alexander’s [Meditations on Moloch](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TxcRbCYHaeL59aY7E/meditations-on-moloch) and Zvi's [Moloch Hasn't Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN/moloc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EF8f6NjZcK6a9ushS/moloch-and-multi-level-selection |
# Book review: Architects of Intelligence by Martin Ford (2018)
*Cross-posted from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/R5Drd54mRmSujdNyz/book-review-architects-of-intelligence-by-martin-ford-2018).*
The 2018 book *Architects of Intelligence* by Martin Ford is a collection of 23 interviews about p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iZS3am4acMh8g4Ycb/book-review-architects-of-intelligence-by-martin-ford-2018 |
# Will OpenAI's work unintentionally increase existential risks related to AI?
\[The original question was "Is OpenAI increasing the existential risks related to AI?" I changed it to the current one following a [discussion](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/CD8gcugDu5z2Eeq7k/is-openai-increasing-the-existential-ris... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CD8gcugDu5z2Eeq7k/will-openai-s-work-unintentionally-increase-existential |
# Zen and Rationality: Trust in Mind
*This is post 2/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at "trust in mind" from a rationalist perspective.*
I really like [*Trust in Mind*](https://terebess.hu/english/hsin3.htm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fFidzSC5dK8zKMvAT/zen-and-rationality-trust-in-mind |
# You Need More Money
Part 1 of the _Inefficient Markets_ Sequence.
[Epistemic Disclaimer:
I am not rich yet.
I feel like I'm just barely starting to understand this stuff
and perhaps that is the best time to teach it:
while I still remember what wasn't obvious,
both to cultivate my comprehension,
and to enrich the r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-more-money |
# Matt Botvinick on the spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms
Matt Botvinick is Director of Neuroscience Research at DeepMind. In [this interview](https://youtu.be/3t06ajvBtl0?t=3647), he discusses results from a [2018 paper](https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-018-0147-8) which describe c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wnqua6eQkewL3bqsF/matt-botvinick-on-the-spontaneous-emergence-of-learning |
# Alignment By Default
Suppose AI continues on its current trajectory: deep learning continues to get better as we throw more data and compute at it, researchers keep trying random architectures and using whatever seems to work well in practice. Do we end up with aligned AI “by default”?
I think there’s at least a pl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nwgdq6kHke5LY692J/alignment-by-default |
# Strong implication of preference uncertainty
Here is a theory that is just as good as general relativity:
>AGR (Angel General Relativity): Tiny invisible angels push around all the particles in the universe in a way that is indistinguishable from the equations of general relativity.
This theory is falsifiable, jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9GZyfm8xKAD2BGdi/strong-implication-of-preference-uncertainty |
# Money creation and debt
I'm confused about fiat money creation and debt in the US. My mental model is that the Fed lends money into existence (either to banks or to the treasury), which creates a loan (that eventually has to be paid back with interest, though I think they can choose not to collect on loans to the tr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nF3Fpksm6Qgc29Mge/money-creation-and-debt |
# Blog post: A tale of two research communities
This is a copy of a [blog post](https://www.york.ac.uk/assuring-autonomy/news/blog/ai-safety-research-communities/) from Francis Rhys Ward, an incoming doctoral student in Safe and Trusted AI at Imperial College London. I just discovered this on the website of the [Assur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FzF4Xok63ZCZNjmGY/blog-post-a-tale-of-two-research-communities |
# Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI
_I'm not an investment advisor and this isn't investment advice. Excerpted from an occasional newsletter I write about investing._
_Related: [Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dZoXpSa3WehwqCf2m/engaging-seriously-with-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dnstJyucLsQKWZiNs/investment-idea-basket-of-tech-stocks-weighted-towards-ai |
# Sentence by Sentence: "Why Most Published Research Findings are False"
Preparing for a career in biomedical research, I thought it prudent to thoroughly read the leading expositor of profound skepticism toward my intended domain. I'm an undergraduate student with only a very basic understanding of statistics and zer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dBt7aE3fKkY9WtSBr/sentence-by-sentence-why-most-published-research-findings |
# Repeat Until Broke
Part 2 of the _Inefficient Markets_ sequence.
[Educational purposes only!
I am not your financial advisor!
Read [part 1 first](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-more-money).]
Knowledge,
learned in the wrong order,
can be dangerous.
Before I teach you how to trade,
I will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ub4M6Yc3xA5TY2k47/repeat-until-broke |
# Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was
Last time: [Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/08/06/covid-8-6-the-case-of-the-missing-data/)
I got the opportunity during this past week to work with a state official to try and solve the case of the missing data. It felt great to have the hel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uoL6mhvDrMav8vjAi/covid-8-13-same-as-it-ever-was |
# [AN #112]: Engineering a Safer World
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https://docs.google... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bP6KA2JJQMke8H4Au/an-112-engineering-a-safer-world |
# Many-worlds versus discrete knowledge
[epistemic status: I'm a mathematical and philosophical expert but not a QM expert; conclusions are very much tentative]
There is tension between the following two claims:
- The fundamental nature of reality consists of the wave function whose evolution follows the Schrö... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/apmL5gA9uL3oe96rm/many-worlds-versus-discrete-knowledge |
# "The Conspiracy against the Human Race," by Thomas Ligotti
_This is part of a series of abstracts, commentaries, and reviews on philosophical articles and books._
The Conspiracy against the Human Race is renowned horror writer Thomas Ligotti's first work of nonfiction. Through impressively wide-ranging discussions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzNhNvGDdLrtDsjyK/the-conspiracy-against-the-human-race-by-thomas-ligotti |
# Petrov Day 2020 Virtual Celebration
**Edit Sept 23: Updated finalized agenda.**
Agenda (Eastern Time, UTC -4)
3:00pm - 3:15am Welcome
3:15pm - 4:15pm Ice Breakers
4:15pm - 5:30pm Lightning Talks & Activities
5:30pm - 6:00pm Snack/Water Break
6:00pm - 7:00pm Ritual
If you cannot make it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/bh76S7YhiHYufjpk9/petrov-day-2020-virtual-celebration |
# misc raw responses to a tract of Critical Rationalism
*Written in response to* [*this David Deutsch presentation.*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01C3a4fL1m0&list=WL&index=63&t=137s) *Hoping it will be comprehensible enough to the friend it was written for to be responded to, and maybe a few other people too.*
De... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bsteawFidASBXiywa/misc-raw-responses-to-a-tract-of-critical-rationalism |
# How webs of meaning grow and change
The Place of Purpose
====================
The world of design has this word "*affordance*" which I really like. To oversimplify, the affordances of an object are the potential uses that it is particularly apt for. A glass jar doesn't really afford being able to write, but a penci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiLobDZi2h6qhzgTQ/how-webs-of-meaning-grow-and-change |
# The Best Educational Institution in the World
_Crossposted on [The Memeticist](https://thememeticist.com/education/2020/08/14/the-best-educational-institution.html) and the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HQXCWTzJTBYAEsRSP/the-best-educational-institution-in-the-world)._
_Note: I originally int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnxKyXjj4bHia6Gcd/the-best-educational-institution-in-the-world |
# The Case for Education
_Crossposted on [The Memeticist](https://thememeticist.com/education/2020/08/14/the-case-for-education.html) and the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qJzKztKGDbe6iocmz/the-case-for-education)._
I discovered the rationalist community two years ago. I had just dropped out of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JK4Ams4u4Lt3raPHS/the-case-for-education |
# Sunday August 16, 12pm (PDT) — talks by Ozzie Gooen, habryka, Ben Pace
This Sunday at 12pm (PDT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts).
* Each talk will be 3-5 minutes followed b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9QdXySpydd6p8tcN/sunday-august-16-12pm-pdt-talks-by-ozzie-gooen-habryka-ben |
# How to Lose a Fair Game
Part 3 of the _Inefficient Markets_ sequence.
[I am not your financial advisor!
Examples are illustrations of principles for educational purposes only,
to help you make your own financial decisions with due diligence.
Read [part 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fiPNjEGDbxy4mdhhT/how-to-lose-a-fair-game |
# An Invitation to the Guild of the Rose — Alpha (formerly the Guild of Servants)
Salutatio[и](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98)s,
You are cordіally invited to apply to the [Guild of the Rose](https://guildoftherose.org/) (edit: formerly the Guild of Servants), an organization dedicated to more effective tһin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P4Mg4S2kYRXerzz8u/an-invitation-to-the-guild-of-the-rose-alpha-formerly-the |
# Do we have updated data about the risk of ~ permanent chronic fatigue from COVID-19?
Months and months ago, when COVID-19 first broke, one of the most concerning aspects of the disease was the possibility that it might produce long-term chronic fatigue, based on a comparison with SARS (apparently a large percentage ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ahYxBHLmG7TiGDqxG/do-we-have-updated-data-about-the-risk-of-permanent-chronic |
# Setting Up a Green Screen
I do a lot of video calls at work, and since I work in our bedroom my background is pretty cluttered. I don't really mind people seeing my messy room, but it's a bit chaotic. I decided to make a screen that could go behind me on calls, and figured that if I was going to do that I might as w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwNQ9Cdgip8FJBc6P/setting-up-a-green-screen |
# Announcing the Study Group for Progress
This fall I will be hosting a study/discussion group on the history, economics and philosophy of progress.
The primary attraction of the program is a weekly Q&A, each week featuring a different special guest—usually a historian or economist who has written on science, technol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RbK3GqT3uGxdghRfR/announcing-the-study-group-for-progress |
# Mapping Out Alignment
This week, the [key alignment group](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EnnCnnjB52MDGtiYF/solving-key-alignment-problems-group), we answered two questions, 5-minute timer style:
1. Map out all of alignment (25 minutes)
2. Create an image/ table representing alignment (10 min.)
You are free to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jeiz7WfCnGQWoShkT/mapping-out-alignment |
# Self-Similarity Experiment
Summary: Some of the people on earth who are most similar to you are likely your own person moments from other points in time. Your degree of similarity to them informs (though I haven’t worked out how) what the density is of you-like computation in the universe. This question is interesti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YNFtQx3nCcRPCPRZX/self-similarity-experiment |
# Does crime explain the exceptional US incarceration rate?
Open Philanthropy motivates their criminal justice grants with sentences like this: "The United States incarcerates its residents at a higher rate than any other major country. "
This sounds bad, but conservatives argue that this is because of our uniquely h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQHuFwENk8kf2idgh/does-crime-explain-the-exceptional-us-incarceration-rate |
# My Understanding of Paul Christiano's Iterated Amplification AI Safety Research Agenda
_Crossposted from the [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2ZeHrfJr9uHHJ2e8J/my-understanding-of-paul-christiano-s-iterated-amplification)_
_You can read this post as a_ [_**google docs**_](https://docs.google.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PT8vSxsusqWuN7JXp/my-understanding-of-paul-christiano-s-iterated-amplification |
# On Need-Sets
This is a toy psychological theory which tries to explain why gratitude practices and stoicism have good effects.
Your "need-set" is all the things you need. More specifically, your need-set is the collection of things that have to seem true for you to feel either OK or better.
Broadly, we have two ki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cds7Cz54RePq3PWww/on-need-sets |
# The Wrong Side of Risk
Part 4 of the _Inefficient Markets_ sequence.
[Formerly entitled _How to Pick the Wrong Side_,
which on reflection, I felt was too clickbaity.
I am not your financial advisor!
For educational purposes only.
Read [part 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-more-money) f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pb6ZREpbBXyojqDT4/the-wrong-side-of-risk |
# The Human Condition
_This is a transcript of a [recording](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgkDrVj1qIo) made on August 9th, 2020 at a polling station in Vitebsk, Belarus. Aside from being a nice illustation to [Milgram experiment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment), I couldn't resist its literary app... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2PZCyEP2KRxwzfrzY/the-human-condition |
# Becoming an EA-influencer on YouTube etc.
Hey, fellow EA people!
I am an effective altruist from Finland. I have noticed that not so many people have heard of effective altruism. I am aware of great people like Peter Singer and William McAskill who do some great research and influence the public discussion of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CsXA2RbAyGYpMDxc5/becoming-an-ea-influencer-on-youtube-etc |
# On Systems - Living a life of zero willpower
_(This post is about the mindset of thinking in systems and routines. This post is mostly from my perspective, but the technique is_ super _subjective. I’ve written up a_ _[lesson plan](https://dynalist.io/d/pgngbu6nDQbQzu1Gcof3Dj1i#z=pznohefw9903y9277WlU56fW) more aimed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmoiZsqozDLio9yuw/on-systems-living-a-life-of-zero-willpower |
# Search versus design
*This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. It could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community. The work involved in writing this cannot be separated from the sitting, chanting, cooking, cleaning, crying, correcting, fundr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3NHPD3dLFNk9QE2Y/search-versus-design-1 |
# GPT-3, belief, and consistency
I've seen a few people debating what GPT-3 understands, and how this compares to human understanding. I think there's an easier and more fruitful question to consider: what does it believe?
It seems like it doesn't believe anything, or alternately, it believes everything. It's a categ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxwgioAqi6RTMDRva/gpt-3-belief-and-consistency |
# Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately?
In reading stories of progress, one thing that has struck me was the wild, enthusiastic celebrations that accompanied some of them in the past. Read some of these stories; somehow it’s hard for me to imagine similar jubilation happening today:
**The US transc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3JY4iRzjq56FyjGF/why-haven-t-we-celebrated-any-major-achievements-lately |
# Spending Update 2020
It's been a bit over two years since our last spending update ( [2018](https://www.jefftk.com/p/spending-update-2018), [2016](https://www.jefftk.com/p/spending-update), [2014](https://www.jefftk.com/p/spending-over-time)). We're no longer tracking our expenses to the dollar in most cases, except... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PreuLZcCJfzgSXgfr/spending-update-2020 |
# 10 Fun Questions for LessWrongers
Here are [**10 fun questions for LWers**](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe3_HR5T1Sbs26HAcdvFOpL1ADrPzDqxQ64nFheJhLdjLFN2g/viewform).
Questions like "how much karma makes a post worth reading" and "do emotions mostly help or hinder you in pursuing your goals".
All multip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FmbsscYpaASJZjfCS/10-fun-questions-for-lesswrongers |
# Multitudinous outside views
There's an important piece of advice for forecasters: don't rely on your internal model of the world exclusively, and take the outside view, then adjust from there. But which view is " the" outside view? It depends on the problem - and different people might tell you different things. But... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxpNpaiTnZcyZwBGL/multitudinous-outside-views |
# On Creativity - The joys of 5 minute timers
Introduction
A really common failure mode that I observe in myself and others is to get _stuck_ and then give up. To be working on a problem, or trying to generate ideas, find it hard and stop looking. I find that this goes hand-in-hand with the far larger problem of bein... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FHiM34PmrN224pqTz/on-creativity-the-joys-of-5-minute-timers |
# Learning human preferences: optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
In this post and the next, I try and clarify - for myself and for others - the precise practical implications of the "[Occam's razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents
](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812)" paper.
Time and aga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6XLyM22PBd9qDtin8/learning-human-preferences-optimistic-and-pessimistic |
# WordPress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives
WordPress had an editor that worked. They have forcibly replaced it with an editor that doesn’t. There does not seem to be a free way to switch back.
Please, if anyone knows a good alternative hosting service, especially one that can seamlessly transfer over ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kXEwGornF5ghkyuNQ/wordpress-destroys-editing-process-seeking-alternatives |
# Mesa-Search vs Mesa-Control
~~I currently see the~~ [~~spontaneous emergence of learning algorithms~~](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wnqua6eQkewL3bqsF/matt-botvinick-on-the-spontaneous-emergence-of-learning) ~~as significant evidence for the commonality of~~ [~~mesa-optimization~~](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WmBukJkEFM72Xr397/mesa-search-vs-mesa-control |
# Radical Probabilism
*This is an expanded version of* [*my talk*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZM63n353vh2ag7z4p/radical-probabilism-transcript)*. I assume a high degree of familiarity with Bayesian probability theory.*
[Toward a New Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJyY5QkQvNJpZLJRo/radical-probabilism-1 |
# Looking for adversarial collaborators to test our Debate protocol
EDIT: We're also looking for people to become trained Honest debaters, which requires a greater time commitment (ideally >=5 hours per week for >= 2 months) but for which we're offering $30/hr. If you're interested in doing that, please fill out this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w7mS6syTderWihHPM/looking-for-adversarial-collaborators-to-test-our-debate |
# On Defining your Terms
Let's suppose you're having a discussion with someone about free will. They believe that you have it and you believe that you don't. Most of the time when these discussions occur, people are just talking past each other, so you ask them to define what they mean by "free will". They say that th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Latcdbjz7oJJMxu3o/on-defining-your-terms |
# Survey Results: 10 Fun Questions for LWers
I posted [a quick 10-question survey](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FmbsscYpaASJZjfCS/10-fun-questions-for-lesswrongers), and 100 users filled it out. Here are the results!
**1\. Pick the answer most people will not pick.**
* HPMOR (26%)
* SlateStarCodex (26%)
* T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y648evrmS4pnYSTCE/survey-results-10-fun-questions-for-lwers |
# AI safety as featherless bipeds *with broad flat nails*
There's a [famous story about Diogenes and Plato](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diogenes#In_Athens):
>[...] when Plato gave the tongue-in-cheek definition of man as "featherless bipeds," Diogenes plucked a chicken and brought it into Plato's Academy, saying, "... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWxMZisqE2j2kHCd2/ai-safety-as-featherless-bipeds-with-broad-flat-nails |
# The US Already Has A Wealth Tax
In [Modeling A Wealth Tax](http://paulgraham.com/wtax.html), Paul Graham writes:
> Even a 0.5% wealth tax would start to keep founders away from a state or country that imposed it.
The US, however, effectively already has a ~0.3%-0.4% wealth tax.
Specifically, the long-term capital... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gHCSG3X5vH5RwPwXK/the-us-already-has-a-wealth-tax |
# Alex Irpan: "My AI Timelines Have Sped Up"
Blog post by Alex Irpan. The basic summary:
> In 2015, I made the following forecasts about when AGI could happen.
>
> * 10% chance by 2045
> * 50% chance by 2050
> * 90% chance by 2070
>
> Now that it’s 2020, I’m updating my forecast to:
>
> * 10% chance by 203... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WFx8iPDS4WaaHyCtL/alex-irpan-my-ai-timelines-have-sped-up |
# [AN #113]: Checking the ethical intuitions of large language models
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tDDDZ2nZdvyziwSvv/an-113-checking-the-ethical-intuitions-of-large-language |
# Should we write more about social life?
Social life is a thorny subject. Writings on that topic can be noxious, for a variety of reasons. Yet we live in a social world, and instrumental rationality ought to make us better at navigating it. Furthermore, if status competition is a war of all against all, and "all warf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G8rjvNuBQccyKFsAx/should-we-write-more-about-social-life |
# The Bayesian Tyrant
Long ago and far away, there was a kingdom called Estimor in a broad green valley surrounded by tall grey mountains. It was an average kingdom in most respects, until the King read the works of Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsy, and decided to institute a Royalist Futarchy.
*(This is a parable a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4tke3ibK9zfnvh9sE/the-bayesian-tyrant |
# Highlights from the Blackmail Debate (Robin Hanson vs Zvi Mowshowitz)
At one of our weekly LessWrong events, [we had a lively debate on legalizing blackmail](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fvcx6o529zCZ5yN4Q/should-blackmail-be-legal-hanson-zvi-debate-sun-july-26th) ([video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg4sM0m3M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajykDPoioWophNRkA/highlights-from-the-blackmail-debate-robin-hanson-vs-zvi |
# Market Misconceptions
Part 5 of the _Inefficient Markets_ sequence.
[I am not your financial advisor!
For educational purposes only.
Read [part 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-more-money) first.]
You, dear reader, are probably not average.
I expect a certain selection bias for readers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rXWCg2gg35JKvxFYf/market-misconceptions |
# Covid 8/20: A Little Progress
(Writer’s note: Due to [the utter trainwreck that is WordPress’ new editor,](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/08/18/wordpress-destroys-editing-process-seeking-alternatives/) this week’s post was written in Google Docs and then cut and pasted into WordPress. This is an excellent example... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p39S6Snqyi6QAkj5z/covid-8-20-a-little-progress |
# Coronavirus and Rents II
When I looked into how Boston apartment listings have changed year-over-year [in June](https://www.jefftk.com/p/coronavirus-and-rents) I saw that rents had been falling, and wrote:
> I think we're probably not done, though. Many landlords are small, and slow to react to changing market cond... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GGdkewRDaT8sJyhj2/coronavirus-and-rents-ii |
# What am I missing? (quantum physics)
I've read many times about an experiment: take a 2-particle system and measure that it has a spin of 0. This tells us that the particles have opposite spin. Now, take the particles far away from each other and measure one. If you measure spin up, for example, you now know the oth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2QiJ4dipWFufoXMSc/what-am-i-missing-quantum-physics |
# Universality Unwrapped
**Introduction**
================
Informally, a universal system is universal with respect to any computation; and it is a universal system with respect to a given computation if it understands every set of beliefs that can be ascribed to the computation. The intuition is that the system can ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/farherQcqFQXqRcvv/universality-unwrapped |
# Live a life you feel excited about
_(This is a post from a personal daily blogging project on finding and cultivating intrinsic motivation, that I thought might be of interest to LessWrong readers)_
I find that my motivation for tasks tends to divide into two _very_ different kinds, extrinsic and intrinsic motivati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2AMaPprXuq5TfJes/live-a-life-you-feel-excited-about |
# Epistemic Comparison: First Principles Land vs. Mimesis Land
*Epistemic Status: wildly speculative*
I've been thinking about the ideas of mimesis and cultural learning by [René Girard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ren%C3%A9_Girard) (known in part for being [recommended by Peter Thiel](https://www.businessinsider.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6252PsMKMmr56o5B4/epistemic-comparison-first-principles-land-vs-mimesis-land |
# What's a Decomposable Alignment Topic?
What's an alignment topic where, if someone decomposed the overall task, a small group of smart people (like here on Lesswrong) could make conceptual progress? By "smart", assume they can [notice confusion](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/zpCiuR4T343j9WkcK), google, and program.
B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4bAd9mFBLAFxR3MSk/what-s-a-decomposable-alignment-topic |
# What price would you pay for the RadVac Vaccine and why?
I have been following with interest the RadVac team and their [synthetic peptide based intranasal vaccine.](https://radvac.org/vaccine/) They have published a protocol for [making and taking the vaccine](https://radvac.org/protocols-for-making-and-taking-the-v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/62WuBbQpSwAbctGDP/what-price-would-you-pay-for-the-radvac-vaccine-and-why |
# [Oops, there is actually an event] Notice: No LW event this weekend
Just a notice to say there's no event this weekend.
Will be back to your regularly scheduled LW event on Sunday 29th, which we'll announce in a few days.
**Update: We're having a double crux, between Buck Shlegeris and Oliver Habryka, on AI takeof... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7828FB3dCkCvKjWa/oops-there-is-actually-an-event-notice-no-lw-event-this |
# Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
This is a thread for displaying your timeline until human-level AGI.
Every answer to this post should be a forecast. In this case, a forecast showing your AI timeline.
For example, [here](https://elicit.ought.org/builder/BsNkKzJoc) are Alex Irpan’s AGI timelines.
![](https://lh4.g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines |
# "The Holy Grail" of portfolio management
TL;DR: Bayes' Theorem : Rationality :: Uncorrelated returns : Investing
Recently I gave a talk on EMH: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-dead](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wfed7zfm6ZyBXsrrp/the-holy-grail-of-portfolio-management |
# Sunday August 23rd, 12pm (PDT) – Double Crux with Buck Shlegeris and Oliver Habryka on Slow vs. Fast AI Takeoff
This Sunday at 12pm (PDT), we're running a double crux between two curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for transcripts of events from previous weeks).
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p5iuER9Ms5QrReFW2/sunday-august-23rd-12pm-pdt-double-crux-with-buck-shlegeris |
# Exposure or Contacts?
When I talk to people about the coronavirus, they're often using one of two models of infection risk:
* **Minimize exposure**: risk is proportional to how risky your activity is, multiplied by how long you spend doing it. Try to do less risky things, and do them for less time.
* **Min... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BFBFNvRCyLL3wP4um/exposure-or-contacts |
# Tagging Progress at 100%! (Party & Celebratory Talk w/ Jason Crawford, Habryka on Sun, Aug 30th, 12pm PDT)
[**Tagging Open Call / Discussion**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uqXQAWxLFW8WgShtk/tagging-open-call-discussion-thread)
***There will be an online Tagging Progress Bar Completion Talk + Party on Sunday, A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gNb2wSKDYDPJ6Mxmz/tagging-progress-at-100-party-and-celebratory-talk-w-jason |
# Efficient Market Frontier
Recently I gave a talk on EMH: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-dead](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-dead)
In there I had a bonus slide about what I call... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SXBRwTcGdB8jxDQPC/efficient-market-frontier |
# Why don't countries, like companies, more often merge?
Whereas companies often undergo a friendly merger or acquisition, why don't countries more often do this? Set aside colonialism because I'd like to focus on the case where the threat of violence is not paramount.
I suppose the right incentives aren't in place b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c6NoYTRWmR9TJjfhk/why-don-t-countries-like-companies-more-often-merge |
# Maybe Lying Can't Exist?!
How is it possible to tell the truth?
I mean, sure, you can use your larynx to make sound waves in the air, or you can draw a sequence of symbols on paper, but sound waves and paper-markings can't be _true_, any more than a leaf or a rock can be "true". Why do you [think you can](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YptSN8riyXJjJ8Qp8/maybe-lying-can-t-exist |
# Current guidance for COVID-19 self-care?
What is the current consensus on supplements to take or skip? I thought zinc lozenges and high dose Vitamin C were clear winners, but I am now finding conflicting information on how Vitamin C may impact interferon.
There's also the HCQ issue, where it's been so politicized t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9La2paDdxzqLSQT7v/current-guidance-for-covid-19-self-care |
# [Geo: California/Bay Area] Mini-Research of 2020 Fire Situation
**Last Updated: 2020/8/25 17:29 PDT**
California currently has a lot of fire. It's not good. Some friends on a [FB thread (public)](https://www.facebook.com/qiaochu/posts/10157193001535811?__cft__[0]=AZXOUe9VDFg5coj-JU6h7Pcf9mAy4T0HVSAiN5BkYj5SyqRpArdj... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kfHRtMtPWJJPpwFDa/geo-california-bay-area-mini-research-of-2020-fire-situation |
# SlateStarCodex Online Meetup: Dr David Manheim on Cooperation for AI
On August 30, 17:30 GMT, 20:30 IDT, 10:30 PDT, Dr David Manheim will speak on "Cooperation for AI: From formal models in AI safety to geopolitics".
He will discuss multiagent dynamics, and also competition and race dynamics for AI takeoff safety.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/upGmdz4iMAjSd4TLC/slatestarcodex-online-meetup-dr-david-manheim-on-cooperation |
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