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# Zen and Rationality: Map and Territory
*This is post 3/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at form and emptiness from a rationalist perspective.*
Rationalists have a few key ideas or memes (in the [memetic](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EReZtCsGg2giRTZP3/zen-and-rationality-map-and-territory |
# What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers
Really interesting analysis of social science papers and replication markets. Some excerpts:
> Over the past year, I have skimmed through 2578 social science papers, spending about 2.5 minutes on each one. This was due to my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sCFGEhwcB8MX3FQf5/what-s-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it |
# on “learning to summarize”
This post is a much extended version of an [LW comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mWJbYebezFdhoFHP6/learning-to-summarize-with-human-feedback-openai-1?commentId=DRPygZwXL7KjWE4z3) I made about OpenAI’s new paper, [“Learning to summarize from human feedback.”](https://arxiv.org/abs/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5YaCtuSZzCNywgHrb/on-learning-to-summarize |
# The Wiki is Dead, Long Live the Wiki! [help wanted]
*That's just a few of them. We imported like 5x as many as these.*
**With the goal of eventually archiving it fully, we have imported 573 pages and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted |
# Rationality and playfulness
Can rationality help us be playful? Can we be playful when we're solitary?
Play is usually interactive. It's about connecting with other people, or even with a pet animal. When people do "playful" things by themselves, it's usually for relaxation or practice.
The presence of a second pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5sKhCsQJmjos994J/rationality-and-playfulness |
# How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
Joe Carlsmith with a really detailed report on computational upper bounds and lower bounds on simulating a human brain:
> Open Philanthropy is interested in when AI systems will be able to perform [various tasks](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgQ3m73kpjGDgKuRM/how-much-computational-power-does-it-take-to-match-the-human |
# Notes on good judgement and how to develop it (80,000 Hours)
This post by 80,000 hours struck me as more than usually relevant to my interests in developing the art of rationality. It doesn't really say anything new, but it does provide a decent summary of a frame that I think is an important subset of epistemic rat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qmEgi4WEQb54MXuG/notes-on-good-judgement-and-how-to-develop-it-80-000-hours |
# Progress: Fluke or trend?
A foundational conviction of *The Roots of Progress* is that progress is a trend with definite, substantive causes, and that it can continue far, far into the future. Progress is not automatic or inevitable: it can slow, stop, even reverse. But the history of progress over the last 200+ yea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sGj9nmus8SdQt4vtu/progress-fluke-or-trend |
# Gems from the Wiki: Acausal Trade
*During the* [*LessWrong 1.0 Wiki Import*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted) *we (the LessWrong team) discovered a number of great articles that most of the LessWrong team hadn't read before. Since we expect many other... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBc4gNAELC3uMjPtQ/gems-from-the-wiki-acausal-trade |
# Egan's Theorem?
When physicists were figuring out quantum mechanics, one of the major constraints was that it had to reproduce classical mechanics in all of the situations where we already knew that classical mechanics works well - i.e. most of the macroscopic world. Likewise for special and general relativity - the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/74crqQnH8v9JtJcda/egan-s-theorem |
# Are there non-AI projects focused on defeating Moloch globally?
_[Meditations on Moloch](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/)_ lays out a rather pessimistic view of the future, and then offers a super-intelligent AI "gardener" as the solution. A lot of the rationalist community is focused on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BDBRwx7qyqS3o7h22/are-there-non-ai-projects-focused-on-defeating-moloch |
# Against boots theory
> The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.
>
> Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67tR3ZesBL3zfy8sA/against-boots-theory |
# My computational framework for the brain
*(See comment* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diruo47z32eprenTg/my-computational-framework-for-the-brain?commentId=c6qzzKWAEfTQyoK7F#c6qzzKWAEfTQyoK7F) *for some updates and corrections and retractions. —Steve, 2022)*
By now I've written a bunch of blog posts on br... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diruo47z32eprenTg/my-computational-framework-for-the-brain |
# Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election
Previously: [Free Money at PredictIt?](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/09/26/free-money-at-predictit/)
It’s time for another look at PredictIt. Is there free money? What are our best options for free money?
The short answer is that there is free money if and only i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/99SGEB4rPbcA5PuMv/free-money-at-predictit-2020-general-election |
# [Link] Five Years and One Week of Less Wrong
This is a link post for [Five Years and One Week of Less Wrong](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/13/five-years-and-one-week-of-less-wrong/). I was surprised to see that it was never cross-posted to LW in the first place. I wanted it to be here so that I could put it und... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oREgYDhtcv9v7AHBB/link-five-years-and-one-week-of-less-wrong |
# On Niceness: Looking for Positive Externalities
One of the most useful concepts I’ve learned from economics is the idea of an **externality**: the consequences of your actions on _other people_. This is important because, intuitively, humans are self-centred, and it’s easy to not notice the effects your actions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/phP29sPoG3czr5h8H/on-niceness-looking-for-positive-externalities |
# If Starship works, how much would it cost to create a system of rotable space mirrors that reduces temperatures on earth by 1° C?
There are many proposed geoengineering solutions that could reduce temperatures on earth. Unfortunately, a lot of them have a mix of side effects and lock-in effects where the changes in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LhHPDioBzJGLyb26b/if-starship-works-how-much-would-it-cost-to-create-a-system |
# Comparing Utilities
*(This is a basic point about utility theory which many will already be familiar with. I draw some non-obvious conclusions which may be of interest to you even if you think you know this from the title -- but the main point is to communicate the basics. I'm posting it to the alignment forum becau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cYsGrWEzjb324Zpjx/comparing-utilities |
# Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schelling Problems
I previously claimed that most apparent Prisoner's Dilemmas are actually Stag Hunts. I now claim that they're Schelling Pub in practice. I conclude with some lessons for fighting Moloch.
*This post turned out especially dense with infer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KkwtLtroaNToWs2H6/most-prisoner-s-dilemmas-are-stag-hunts-most-stag-hunts-are |
# A case study in simulacra levels and the Four Children of the Seder
*This was originally going to be a comment on Zvi's excellent post,* [*The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v6NBpQc2AzWjzxJ4S/the-four-children-of-the-seder-as-the-simulacra-levels)*, but it got to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5x9Ma4e9aWJ7uR8pd/a-case-study-in-simulacra-levels-and-the-four-children-of |
# Book Review: Working With Contracts
Contracts is one of those areas that I always figured I ought to study, at least enough to pick up the basics, but never seemed either interesting or important enough to reach the front of my queue. On top of that, there’s a lot of different angles from which to approach the subje... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WhHFvzFsYfMxgYCdo/book-review-working-with-contracts |
# Gems from the Wiki: Paranoid Debating
*During the* [*LessWrong 1.0 Wiki Import*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted) *we (the LessWrong team) discovered a number of great articles that most of the LessWrong team hadn't read before. Since we expect many o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D9y9ch4NFKJWfqk7H/gems-from-the-wiki-paranoid-debating |
# Low hanging fruits (LWCW 2020)
During Less Wrong Community Week-end (Europe), in one event people share low-hanging fruit they used. I chaired it this year and defined low-hanging fruit as something that can be easily bought or done that improved the life. Here is the list of fruits shared in 2020. All typos are min... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QJTq8DDj5yhe8EW6M/low-hanging-fruits-lwcw-2020 |
# Memorizing a Deck of Cards
I just memorized a deck of cards, because I was told doing so [would improve my focus](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P3zrurj5hHKFKDL3M/productivity-working-towards-a-summary-of-what-we-know#Deliberately_train).
The process took 2 hours and 13 minutes, including breaks. I used 20-5 pomo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eGmpH7WuyDRmGJ4HF/memorizing-a-deck-of-cards |
# Applying the Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma to Logical Uncertainty
The [Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sY2rHNcWdg94RiSSR/the-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma) is a symmetric version of [Counterfactual Mugging](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/counterfactual-mugging?) where regard... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XzvR3QKkt9EPbAYyT/applying-the-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma-to-logical |
# Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell
Orwell is another game in the discrete-choices-over-time genre. In this case, you are an investigator, and choose which ‘datachunks’ to upload into the system. From there, others will take action.
Like other games in the genre, if you are going to play, play it blind.
I’d rank the game ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G6d8dkm6M8e7pRLsJ/spoiler-free-review-orwell |
# [AN #117]: How neural nets would fare under the TEVV framework
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spread... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8H5JbowLTJoNHzLuH/an-117-how-neural-nets-would-fare-under-the-tevv-framework |
# What Does "Signalling" Mean?
*\[Epistemic status: shortly after writing this post, I thought I'd regret it. It was not rated very highly by LW karma, and on outside view, it's the sort of rant I often don't endorse later on. But re-reading it after a few weeks, I think it holds up. I still endorse everything I've wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYBaRodGhfsmfEpSW/what-does-signalling-mean |
# Rationality for Kids?
UPDATE 11NOV:
I came up with a game to use as an icebreaker. And I'd love ideas for future variations. It's a combination of Credence Calibration, 20 Questions, and Taboo. The children are trying to determine which of three possible states exist on the card which I have face down (for my first... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yF6FLgWnRdKMYpm9g/rationality-for-kids |
# Sunday September 20, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Eric Rogstad, Daniel Kokotajlo and more
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts).
* For the first hour, we will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxL9u3Yc9dAh3BQWd/sunday-september-20-12-00pm-pt-talks-by-eric-rogstad-daniel |
# Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (4th edition) on the Alignment Problem
**Previously**: [AGI and Friendly AI in the dominant AI textbook](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K45SaBaB3D7o9xpAs/agi-and-friendly-ai-in-the-dominant-ai-textbook) (2011), [Stuart Russell: AI value alignment problem must be an "intrin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNJx2CqfXyiusoJcK/artificial-intelligence-a-modern-approach-4th-edition-on-the |
# Noticing Wasted Motion
_This post is about a practical skill you need to effectively minimize [wasted motion](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/8/27/cost-of-wasted-motion) \- noticing. Noticing is a key skill for changing behavior in general, because it allows you to respond deliberately instead of aut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3neWsXmxRKwKQjc5i/noticing-wasted-motion |
# Covid 9/17: It’s Worse
Last week we learned there is plausibly a simple, cheap and easy way out of this entire mess. All we have to do is take our Vitamin D. In case it needed to be said, no. We are not taking our Vitamin D. There’s definitely some voices out there pushing it, including the nation’s top podcaster Jo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygx9DpueLEipq5xWY/covid-9-17-it-s-worse |
# Let the AI teach you how to flirt
"It's Not You, it's Me: Detecting Flirting and its Misperception in Speed-Dates" is a fascinating approach to the study of flirtation. It uses a machine learning model to parse speed-dating data and detect whether the participants were flirting. Here's a [sci-hub link](https://www.a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5QhDt8RD5d3ru3xR/let-the-ai-teach-you-how-to-flirt |
# Gems from the Wiki: Do The Math, Then Burn The Math and Go With Your Gut
*During the* [*LessWrong 1.0 Wiki Import*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted) *we (the LessWrong team) discovered a number of great articles that most of the LessWrong team hadn't ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mRsm8gibyuPWas7K5/gems-from-the-wiki-do-the-math-then-burn-the-math-and-go |
# Objective Dog Ratings: The Shiba Inu
The Shiba Inu
=============
Shibas are a spitz dog, which, if you remember from the [original Dog Ratings post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SyNM8S9Fb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MGcJ7JXLCPMX8fApF/objective-dog-ratings-the-shiba-inu |
# Against Victimhood
Cross-posted, as always, from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/09/12/against-victimhood/).
* * *
I have written many posts in the shape of [giving life advice](https://putanumonit.com/2019/12/30/100-ways-to-live-better/). I hear back from readers who take it and those who refuse it. Ei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AjgiA6s3TEfxbndyj/against-victimhood |
# Some thoughts on criticism
Here are some somewhat unconnected unconfident thoughts on criticism that I’ve been thinking about recently.
\-\-\-
A while ago, when I started having one-on-ones with people I was managing, I went into the meetings with a list of questions I was going to ask them. After the meetings, I’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xR59ruh7aNcpPNrvv/some-thoughts-on-criticism |
# The "Backchaining to Local Search" Technique in AI Alignment
In the spirit of this [post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/7CJBiHYxebTmMfGs3/infinite-data-compute-arguments-in-alignment) by John S. Wentworth, this is a reference for a technique I learned from Evan Hubinger. He's probably not the first to use it,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEjh8rpxjG4qGtfuK/the-backchaining-to-local-search-technique-in-ai-alignment |
# Expansive translations: considerations and possibilities
A crowd probably best served by a wide variety of translations
**TLDR:** Language translat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PC4yowA2TiRne69iD/expansive-translations-considerations-and-possibilities |
# Draft report on AI timelines
Hi all, I've been working on some AI forecasting research and have prepared a draft report on timelines to [transformative AI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/some-background-our-views-regarding-advanced-artificial-intelligence#Sec1). I would love feedback from this community, so I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines |
# EA Relationship Status
A friend [observed](https://www.facebook.com/groups/eaparents/permalink/2854556011433232) that fewer people in the effective altruism movement are married than you might expect. I was curious: what are marriage rates like within the EA community? The 2018 [EA Survey](https://www.rethinkproject... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JRj3RFzuXwuNfSnE9/ea-relationship-status |
# Why GPT wants to mesa-optimize & how we might change this
This post was inspired by orthonormal's post [Developmental Stages of GPTs](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nDR23ksSQJ98WNDm/developmental-stages-of-gpts) and the discussion that followed, so only part of it is original.
First I'll aim to provide a crisper ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGD5J2KAoNmpPMzMQ/why-gpt-wants-to-mesa-optimize-and-how-we-might-change-this |
# Taking Social Initiative
_(This is a post from a personal daily blogging project, on social skills, taking social initiative, and "networking without being a terrible person". And I think this is relevant to the interests of LessWrong readers!)_
Introduction
============
A theme I’ve touched on pretty heavily in p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LwvJ6GGFAZ5jPhRAm/taking-social-initiative |
# Livestreaming monetisation models aka What do camgirls have in common with Twitch streamers?
Repost from my personal blog / newsletter - feel free to [subscribe](https://lillianli.substack.com/subscribe?) if you like longform Chinese tech analysis.
In many ways, the internet was made for livestreaming. Starting wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaWWHkjv62Cr6WNkj/livestreaming-monetisation-models-aka-what-do-camgirls-have |
# My (Mis)Adventures With Algorithmic Machine Learning
## Introduction
*This was originally posted [here](http://anthonylorenhart.com/2020-09-18-My-(Mis)Adventures-with-Algorithmic-Machine-Learning/).*
I've been researching, for quite some time, the prospect of machine learning on a wider variety of data types than ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4RSZJd7J53ty8RDt/my-mis-adventures-with-algorithmic-machine-learning-1 |
# Where is human level on text prediction? (GPTs task)
I look at graphs like these (From the GPT-3 paper), and I wonder where human-level is:
Gwern seems to [have the answer here](https://www.gwern.net/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SZ3jDHXHb4WF4jmbr/where-is-human-level-on-text-prediction-gpts-task |
# I'm Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don't Like It
This fall, [Ranked Choice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) / Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) will be [on the ballot](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Question_2,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2020)) in Massachusetts. I'm voting for it, but on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DTncBY8L5gnRsGtJW/i-m-voting-for-ranked-choice-but-i-don-t-like-it |
# Are aircraft carriers super vulnerable in a modern war?
It seems like aircraft carriers are a good candidate for something that only exists because it made sense in WWII and it looks the part of “impressive military asset”, i.e. it’s all larping at this point. It seems vulnerable to attack relative to its huge cost ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAzK9yqP9njr2Xp83/are-aircraft-carriers-super-vulnerable-in-a-modern-war |
# Clarifying “What failure looks like”
*Thanks to Jess Whittlestone, Daniel Eth, Shahar Avin, Rose Hadshar, Eliana Lorch, Alexis Carlier, Flo Dorner, Kwan Yee Ng, Lewis Hammond, Phil Trammell and Jenny Xiao for valuable conversations, feedback and other support. I am especially grateful to Jess Whittlestone for long c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v6Q7T335KCMxujhZu/clarifying-what-failure-looks-like |
# Zen and Rationality: Just This Is It
*This is post 4/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at "just this is it" from a rationalist perspective.*
When Dongshan, the co-founder of what would become the Soto Zen s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AaMPY9ddiAejMPw2v/zen-and-rationality-just-this-is-it |
# Needed: AI infohazard policy
The premise of AI risk is that AI is a danger, and therefore research into AI might be dangerous. In the AI alignment community, we're trying to do research which makes AI safer, but occasionally we might come up with results that have significant implications for AI capability as well. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3D3DsX5rMbk3jEZ5h/needed-ai-infohazard-policy |
# How often do series C startups fail to exit?
How often do series C startups really fail? By fail I mean never have an acquisition or IPO. Internet says 80% (see https://medium.com/journal-of-empirical-entrepreneurship/dissecting-startup-failure-by-stage-34bb70354a36) but this seems very high to me.
Most Series ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Rc5P68ZmGjcJQcA9/how-often-do-series-c-startups-fail-to-exit |
# What AI companies would be most likely to have a positive long-term impact on the world as a result of investing in them?
Ever since GPT-3 was unveiled, I've been thinking pretty heavily about increasing my investment in AI-related companies. My first thoughts were to invest in Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) - Micr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nvBgAEJvkTHignTQP/what-ai-companies-would-be-most-likely-to-have-a-positive |
# Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
This is a thread for displaying your probabilities of an existential catastrophe that causes extinction or the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.
Every answer to this post should be a forecast showing your probability of an existential catastrophe happening at any gi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6x9rJbx9bmGsxXWEj/forecasting-thread-existential-risk-1 |
# Anthropomorphisation vs value learning: type 1 vs type 2 errors
The [Occam's razor paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) showed that one cannot deduce an agent $H$'s reward function ($R_H$ - using the notation from that paper) or their level of rationality ($p_H$) by observing their behaviour or even by knowing t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkytHQSKbQFf6toW5/anthropomorphisation-vs-value-learning-type-1-vs-type-2 |
# The Haters Gonna Hate Fallacy
Occasionally I see people doing what I think of as the “Haters Gonna Hate Fallacy”.
The HGHF says something like: “People are going to misinterpret you no matter how carefully you word things. Therefore, there’s no point wasting time wording things carefully.”
An example:
“I think \[... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sShC4ajY3xarMpbJa/the-haters-gonna-hate-fallacy |
# Comparative Advantage is Not About Trade
[Braudel](https://www.amazon.com/Civilization-Capitalism-15th-18th-Century-Vol/dp/0520081145) is probably the most impressive historian I have read. His quantitative estimates of premodern populations and crop yields are exactly the sort of foundation you’d think any understa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YthENnKAxnAKnd3ZJ/comparative-advantage-is-not-about-trade |
# Sunday September 27, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Alex Flint, Alex Zhu and more
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts).
* For the first hour, we will have a se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DNN4xwqfTDKdmuNyi/sunday-september-27-12-00pm-pt-talks-by-alex-flint-alex-zhu |
# AI Advantages [Gems from the Wiki]
*During the* [*LessWrong 1.0 Wiki Import*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted) *we (the LessWrong team) discovered a number of great articles that most of the LessWrong team hadn't read before. Since we expect many othe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QWHeLizdEaHFktsko/ai-advantages-gems-from-the-wiki |
# New Tagging Power Tools: Dashboard + Upgraded Tag Editing Experience
Following the strong response of taggers to calls for help, plus lessons learned from our earlier designs, we are launching new and improved power tools for maintaining and improving the tag/wiki (twiki?) corpus.
We are first applying these tools ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zaGsZ5uSzCseTmCFu/new-tagging-power-tools-dashboard-upgraded-tag-editing |
# The new Editor
| **Look** | **at** | **this** | **glorious** | **table** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
**Celebrations! The new editor is finally here! **
--------------------------------------------------
Starting from today, all desktop users will by-default use the new visual editor that we've been testing f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BisQ5ZNxAS4mPjhcw/the-new-editor |
# Dehumanisation *errors*
In response to my post [contrasting value learning with anthropomorphisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkytHQSKbQFf6toW5/anthropomorphisation-vs-value-learning-type-1-vs-type-2), steve2152 brought up the fact that [dehumanisation can be seen as the opposite of anthropomorphisation](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SfNwpyL7o49ohYyWB/dehumanisation-errors |
# [AN #118]: Risks, solutions, and prioritization in a world with many AI systems
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8eX8DJctsACtR2sfX/an-118-risks-solutions-and-prioritization-in-a-world-with |
# The rationalist community's location problem
The Problem
===========
Basically ever since the first rationalists settled in Berkeley, people have been saying, “Why do you live in Berkeley, Berkeley sucks! You should all move to Location X instead, it’s so much better.” The problem has always been that no one agrees... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FghubkDy6Dp6mnxk7/the-rationalist-community-s-location-problem |
# I have discovered a new kind of unemployment.
Hello everybody, I have an article that explains why since 2000: business investment has been weak; the fall in the U.S net labor share; the decline in the prime age U.S labor participation rate vs large gains elsewhere; the rise in deaths of despair. The article is call... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rT2HwDS3ew2Bq9T2G/i-have-discovered-a-new-kind-of-unemployment |
# Should it be a research paper or a blog post?
*The answer to this question may seem obvious to some, but let's see.*
My impression is that some people write long blog posts about things that they perceive as innovative new ideas in philosophy, AI research, or whatever. So how do you decide that your idea should be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxEeHeBaW3NQ6ez9r/should-it-be-a-research-paper-or-a-blog-post |
# Spoiler-Free Review: The Stanley Parable
At Ben Pace’s recommendation, I recently played The Stanley Parable. Ben considers the game Tier 1.5. On reflection I consider this Tier 2. If you can spare the $15 for a short game, it’s Worth It to play.
If there’s one game I’ve played that needs to be played blind, this i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zyyh7c3tey2HCmFyP/spoiler-free-review-the-stanley-parable |
# Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves
Last Two Weeks: [Covid 9/17: It’s Worse](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/09/17/covid-9-17-its-worse/), [Covid 9/10: Vitamin D](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/09/10/covid-9-10-vitamin-d/)
There is a pandemic. It is not going anywhere.
The news, on the other hand, is ready to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E8fp7BxpuzcwaMGtz/covid-9-24-until-morale-improves |
# Visualizing the textbook for fun and profit
Here we go again. It's the beginning of my undergraduate o-chem series. It's going to be a year of prose like this:
> Recall the electron configuration of carbon (Figure [1.18](https://edugen.wileyplus.com/edugen/courses/crs10264/ebook/c01/klein9781119110477c01xlinks.xfor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/REnYhKSWRpCxtNkuc/visualizing-the-textbook-for-fun-and-profit |
# Petrov Event Roundup 2020
Petrov Day is this weekend. Various LessWrong folk have taken the opportunity to reflect on the [Day that Stanislav Petrov Didn't Destroy the World](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QtyKq4BDyuJ3tysoK/9-26-is-petrov-day). Some people have employed [ritual](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fr8M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JtG3y8GBC2dTot339/petrov-event-roundup-2020 |
# Losing the forest for the trees with grid drawings
Last night I learned about grid drawings and spent some time trying to work on them. In doing so, I ended up having a lightbulb moment where I really internalized what it means to lose the forest for the trees.
I'll explain what I mean. To start, let's back up and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2xjWjnubhs5Bsa3P5/losing-the-forest-for-the-trees-with-grid-drawings |
# Human Biases that Obscure AI Progress
There are some common biases that are often used to discount AI progress. We should keep these in mind, as they can prevent us from having an objective understanding of progress in the field.
I'm going to use AI here instead of ML because usually these biases are relevant to an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wfbgihbRzieD73d5p/human-biases-that-obscure-ai-progress |
# Up close and personal with the world
Explicitly building models of the world is often done through understanding the mechanics of how things work, the relations between them, causal effects and more. But I don't put enough emphasis on _quantifying_. I'm not talking about doing Fermi estimates because I do them and m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/royfAunky4feDsz4G/up-close-and-personal-with-the-world |
# Honoring Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2020
The Petrov Day Red Button.
Just after midnight last night, 270 LessWrong users received the following email.
> *Subject Line: **Honoring Petrov Day: I am tru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020 |
# Petrov Day is not about unilateral action
It's about the dangers of unrestrained escalation. It's a failure of humanity that we even got to the point where a few people's small and difficult decisions decided the fate of so much. This post is a friendly reminder to...
* Please avoid escalating socio-economic disa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZJvrf2DzsXcqnp6t/petrov-day-is-not-about-unilateral-action |
# Surviving Petrov Day
Sorry, but I can't let this metaphorical world be destroyed.
In [Honoring Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020), [Ben Pace](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/benito) explains that during Petrov's Day (ie. toda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/evDZoYG4p6ZkQQkDw/surviving-petrov-day |
# Notebook for generating forecasting bets
We made a [colab notebook](https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1YfCIhOJ6v0BcX-RB47ziJAvXj6lkr2Ay?usp=sharing&utm_source=lw&utm_medium=colab&utm_campaign=lwbettingcolab) that lets you generate a bet from two people's [Elicit](https://elicit.ought.org/) distributions. You c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KafZRToDv9a5Ehi9F/notebook-for-generating-forecasting-bets |
# Distributed public goods provision
Most people benefit significantly from privately funded public goods (e.g. Wikipedia).
If we all contribute to such public goods, then we can all end up better off. But as an individual it’s almost never a good return on investment. I think of supporting such public goods as being... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krSHSDYjSrihivmwD/distributed-public-goods-provision |
# Blog posts as epistemic trust builders
I've really been enjoying Zvi's weekly posts on the coronavirus. Keeping up with what's going on is something I want to do, but not badly enough to put in the time myself. I'm not even sure how capable I would be even if I wanted to put in the time myself; it seems difficult to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hB2vEA4aKin2JBJQv/blog-posts-as-epistemic-trust-builders |
# Numeracy neglect - A personal postmortem
My failed enlightenment
=======================
I've been thinking about my intellectual education, and what I wish had gone differently.
I am 26 years old. I’ve been reading books and going to school since I was 8. This puts my career as a learner at about 19 years. Honest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4nkSD3SJpitfrMBM5/numeracy-neglect-a-personal-postmortem |
# Not all communication is manipulation: Chaperones don't manipulate proteins
*Epistemic status: Original work, explanation of a mental model that I developed for a few years that brings together knowledge from existing fields.*
Is all communication manipulation? I hear this sentiment frequently expressed and want to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HzDcLf2LJg4x66fcH/not-all-communication-is-manipulation-chaperones-don-t |
# A long reply to Ben Garfinkel on Scrutinizing Classic AI Risk Arguments
In July, Ben Garfinkel scrutinized the classic AI Risk arguments in a 158 minute-long [interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ben-garfinkel-classic-ai-risk-arguments/) with 80000 hours, which I strongly recommend.
I have formulated... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQ8znEREG5dGsPKLr/a-long-reply-to-ben-garfinkel-on-scrutinizing-classic-ai |
# Tips for the most immersive video calls
I spend a lot of my day on video calls. Wave is a distributed company, so they’re the main way we communicate. But compared to talking in person, they feel unnatural:
* Most people have low-quality microphones and webcams that make them look and sound bad.
* There’s a lag... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DEe5cvpaTQeF9kkru/tips-for-the-most-immersive-video-calls |
# What hard science fiction stories also got the social sciences right?
Robin Hanson says that those stories are rare.
> Most discussion of the non-immediate future seems to take place in science fiction, and the small subset of science fiction where authors try hard to remain realistic is called hard science fiction.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QxdNxQoNfAceXKwFF/what-hard-science-fiction-stories-also-got-the-social |
# Puzzle Games
I like puzzle games. I have aesthetic opinions about puzzle games. This post is meant to be a resource for people whose preferences about puzzle games have a lot in common with mine. It includes a list of game recommendations.
Rules about Spoilers
====================
This post will be very spoiler-fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4KATQFzniqDpHo6ck/puzzle-games |
# What are good rationality exercises?
I want to know what are good rationality exercises.
I was just on a call with Liron and PhilH, hanging out after the weekly LessWrong weekend event, and we discussed exercises that could happen on LessWrong.
Here is the list we generated:
* Thinking Physics
* Fermi Estimat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJR4StLkutHvcA6tc/what-are-good-rationality-exercises |
# What to do with imitation humans, other than asking them what the right thing to do is?
This question is about whether you have clever ideas about how to use AI imitations of humans for AI safety. The two main ideas I'm familiar with only seem to interface with these imitations as if they're humans.
* The most ob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LAR2ajpFDueNg45Mk/what-to-do-with-imitation-humans-other-than-asking-them-what |
# On "Not Screwing Up Ritual Candles"
I do a lot of experimentation with [rational ritual](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ritual). Rituals often use lots of candles. I used to just buy Random Cheap Candles. Then I kept running into problems. Now I have very strong opinions about what kinds of candles to buy.
The first... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tdLzqMueEp8zkqxfF/on-not-screwing-up-ritual-candles |
# "Win First" vs "Chill First"
Around a month ago, I found an *incredibly* insightful quote deep in the Reddit comments about a particular basketball player who had recently changed teams.
> People who try hard to win first and foremost make it uncomfortable when people are trying to just have a good time and do well... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/scL68JtnSr3iakuc6/win-first-vs-chill-first |
# On Destroying the World
Yesterday I [blew up the front page](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=QjKagi2hEqLcPK4B9#QjKagi2hEqLcPK4B9). This was unintentional. I was tricked by one of my friends:
> petrov\_day\_admin\_account September 26, 2020 11:26 A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K7jrkyKArvxJ224GD/on-destroying-the-world |
# What are examples of Rationalist fable-like stories?
I will post some of the collection I've acquired. I have ideas for more. And would be interested in seeing more.
If there's enough interest, and with the permission of the authors, I would like to make a book of Rationalist fables / parables (but with a more gene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fjfe2BuihTAE58A27/what-are-examples-of-rationalist-fable-like-stories |
# What Decision Theory is Implied By Predictive Processing?
At a fairly abstract/stylized level, [predictive processing](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/) models human cognition and behavior as always minimizing predictive error. Sometimes, the environment is "fixed" and our inter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Ziz5BQjtuhr9orm4/what-decision-theory-is-implied-by-predictive-processing |
# AGI safety from first principles: Introduction
_This is the first part of a six-part report called_ AGI safety from first principles, _in which I've attempted to put together the most complete and compelling case I can for why the development of AGI might pose an existential threat. The report stems from my dissatis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8xRSjC76HasLnMGSf/agi-safety-from-first-principles-introduction |
# AGI safety from first principles: Superintelligence
In order to understand superintelligence, we should first characterise what we mean by intelligence. We can start with Legg’s well-known definition, which identifies intelligence as [the ability to do well on a broad range of cognitive tasks](https://arxiv.org/abs/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eG3WhHS8CLNxuH6rT/agi-safety-from-first-principles-superintelligence |
# Seek Upside Risk
When I meet somebody new, there are two interesting things that could happen. We could get on _super_ well, become great friends, and be part of each other’s lives for year to come. Or we don’t. Maybe we like each other, maybe we don’t, but we likely just go our separate ways. But the upside in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gDN26whdhcPjcH7XM/seek-upside-risk |
# AGI safety from first principles: Goals and Agency
The fundamental concern motivating the second species argument is that AIs will gain too much power over humans, and then use that power in ways we don’t endorse. Why might they end up with that power? I’ll distinguish three possibilities:
1. AIs pursue power for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bz5GdmCWj8o48726N/agi-safety-from-first-principles-goals-and-agency |
# Examples of self-governance to reduce technology risk?
*Cross-posted from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KJw6RDm4M6gAfqW6X/examples-of-self-governance-to-reduce-technology-risk)*
I'm searching for examples of self-governance efforts to reduce technology risk. Do people have cases to sugges... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B2DFgzG6bptZvin9L/examples-of-self-governance-to-reduce-technology-risk |
# “Unsupervised” translation as an (intent) alignment problem
Suppose that we want to translate between English and an alien language (Klingon). We have plenty of Klingon text, and separately we have plenty of English text, but it’s not matched up and there are no bilingual speakers.
We train GPT on a mix of English ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/saRRRdMnMPXXtQBNi/unsupervised-translation-as-an-intent-alignment-problem |
# Holy Grails of Chemistry
This is a linkpost-slash-suggestion to check out [https://www.chemistryworld.com/holy-grails/](https://www.chemistryworld.com/holy-grails/).
In 1995, the journal [*Accounts of Chemical Research*](https://pubs.acs.org/journal/achre4) published a series of articles called [Holy Grails of Chem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMbKoa8QtAzPChgPy/holy-grails-of-chemistry |
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