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# SlateStarCodex Online Meetup: Dr David Manheim on Cooperation for AI
On August 30, 17:30 GMT, 20:30 IDT, 10:30 PDT, Dr David Manheim will speak on "Cooperation for AI: From formal models in AI safety to geopolitics".
He will discuss multiagent dynamics, and also competition and race dynamics for AI takeoff safety.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/HMgeBvQ3KiqXWpBRi/slatestarcodex-online-meetup-dr-david-manheim-on-cooperation-1 |
# How to set up foot pedals
Let's say you would like to control your computer partly with your feet: how do you go about it? This wasn't something that I was especially interested in before my [wrists started hurting](https://www.jefftk.com/p/wrist-issues), but now I have it set up I like it a lot and I would definite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T8Fx6iPqggidpRtNE/how-to-set-up-foot-pedals |
# Postel’s Principle as Moral Aphorism
_\[All the usual disclaimers. Wanders dangerously close to moral relativism. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Empty](https://grandunifiedempty.com/2020/08/23/postels-principle-as-moral-aphorism/).\]_
I.
Postel’s Principle (also known as the Robustness Principle) is an obscure... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vuKE9T7XJpJNQuDwY/postel-s-principle-as-moral-aphorism |
# Charting Is Mostly Superstition
Part 6 of the _Inefficient Markets_ sequence.
[I am not your financial advisor!
For educational purposes only.
Read [part 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPe6b7MCxaK8ZzYdC/you-need-more-money) first.]
The technical analyst reads the signs and portends and divines the future price... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iiTcTYJpuWd5JhC8B/charting-is-mostly-superstition |
# Investment is a useful societal mechanism for getting new things made. Stock trading shares some functionality with investment, but seems very very inefficient, at that?
Jack Bogle, the creator of the first index fund, says
> **The stock market has nothing—n-o-t-h-i-n-g—to do with the allocation of capital**. All i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEeZXryrWSJfkMNMj/investment-is-a-useful-societal-mechanism-for-getting-new |
# Split-a-Dollar Game
When researching the topic of [distributing government seats in Switzerland](https://250bpm.com/blog:163/index.html). I've chanced on the so-called split-the-dollar game, which is kind of simplified, game-theoretical model of the process. Given that despite having some basic knowledge of the game... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPHGvNGqnTjrEk8AT/split-a-dollar-game |
# "Good judgement" and its components
_Epistemic status: Sharing a personal ontology I've found useful. I expect most claims to be fairly uncontroversial, but maybe the perspective will be interesting/clarifying for some readers. ([Cross-posted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xMRpu4nAeGeAXy9ns/good-judgemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2iBipAyazJsAr9Y9/good-judgement-and-its-components |
# Learning human preferences: black-box, white-box, and structured white-box access
This post is inspired by [system identification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_identification); however, I'm not an expert in that domain, so any corrections or inspirations on that front are welcome.
I want to thank Rebecca Go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9rjW9rhyhJijHTM92/learning-human-preferences-black-box-white-box-and |
# Do you vote based on what you think total karma should be?
I recently strong-downvoted a post that I would have weak-upvoted if it had been at a lower karma. In general, I usually vote primarily based on what I think the total karma should be. I'm curious whether other people do similar things.
This is both a quest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xBAeSSwLFBs2NCTND/do-you-vote-based-on-what-you-think-total-karma-should-be |
# When can Fiction Change the World?
I suspect that a nontrivial percentage of the people reading this became involved with the community because of _Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality_.
So to the extent that those who were drawn to join the community because of that source are making the world a better plac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KsdFCeZNjR7iSJm85/when-can-fiction-change-the-world |
# Why hasn't there been research on the effectiveness of zinc for Covid-19?
There was significant interest in zinc early on. It seemed like one of the most promising avenues for protecting oneself against Covid-19. Searching on both Google and Lesswrong itself, I do not see new research on it. ([This](https://wellcome... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbAmwoaGFf5cHLFQL/why-hasn-t-there-been-research-on-the-effectiveness-of-zinc |
# The Best Toy In The Park
One of the [playgrounds](https://www.somervillerec.com/info/facilities/details.aspx?FacilityID=14346) near our house has an [angled ring shaped merry-go-round](https://www.kompan.us/play/freestanding/supernova-carousels-spinners/supernova-1):
[
Woop! Woop! This past Saturday, gallant taggers brought our immense first tagging campaign to a close. The archives have been swept and every post with over 25 karma has be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ovon3EAvrgqsdszzA/sunday-20-8-30-12pm-pdt-tagging-celebration-habryka-crawford |
# I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack
The substack is [here](https://thezvi.substack.com/).
The latest post is [here](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/team-offensive-ratings-825) and contains predictions for tomorrow’s baseball games. I also posted predictions for yesterday’s games [here](https://thezvi.substack.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DwBFjqP8RAtmCLLDW/i-started-a-sports-and-gambling-substack |
# On Suddenly Not Being Able to Work
Cross-posted, as always, from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/08/20/working-hardly/).
* * *
Since I started Putanumonit five years ago I’ve rarely ever gone two weeks without posting anything. I’ve now gone a full month.
It’s not that I have nothing to write about. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PP99is2qJBNZjtpQi/on-suddenly-not-being-able-to-work |
# nostalgebraist: Recursive Goodhart's Law
Would kind of like to excerpt the whole post, but that feels impolite, so I'll just quote the first four paragraphs and then suggest reading the whole thing:
> There’s this funny thing about Goodhart’s Law, where it’s easy to say “being affected by Goodhart’s Law is bad” and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PAB2ymaaqZ3iXYfYA/nostalgebraist-recursive-goodhart-s-law |
# Excusing a Failure to Adjust
Crossposted from [Figuring](https://figuringfiguring.com) [Figuring](https://figuringfiguring.com/2020/06/05/excusing-a-failure-to-adjust/).
Here is a handle for a mistake I make all the time that works really well for me… that is the handle works really well for me. I make this mistake... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KsMFHMWTFN4DvCurk/excusing-a-failure-to-adjust |
# [AN #114]: Theory-inspired safety solutions for powerful Bayesian RL agents
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kxPiL4zNSPR249wsC/an-114-theory-inspired-safety-solutions-for-powerful |
# WebBundles and URL Randomization
*Disclosure: I work on ads at Google; this is a personal post.*
Peter Snyder of [Brave](https://brave.com/) recently wrote a [post](https://brave.com/webbundles-harmful-to-content-blocking-security-tools-and-the-open-web/) on the proposed WebBundle specification arguing that it make... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCrSj8DnoH8jHRgha/webbundles-and-url-randomization |
# Introduction To The Infra-Bayesianism Sequence
$\newcommand{\la}{\lambda} \newcommand{\m}{m}$
TLDR: Infra-Bayesianism is a new approach to epistemology / decision theory / reinforcement learning theory, which builds on "imprecise probability" to solve the problem of prior misspecification / grain-of-truth / non... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zB4f7QqKhBHa5b37a/introduction-to-the-infra-bayesianism-sequence |
# What is the interpretation of the do() operator?
To reductively explain causality, it has to be explained in non-causal terms, most likely in terms of total propability distributions. Pearl explains causality in terms of causal graphs which are created by conditionalizing the propability distribution on not event, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uwfstudGoNFSEtMAT/what-is-the-interpretation-of-the-do-operator |
# 19th-century progress studies
I wrote earlier about an [1857 plan for the transcontinental railroad](https://rootsofprogress.org/judah-practical-plan-for-the-pacific-railroad) (as yet unbuilt), and how it advocated funding the project through [the sale of stock to a broad base of public investors](https://rootsofpro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F4g3RudxafNkoMsc5/19th-century-progress-studies |
# Belief Functions And Decision Theory
$\newcommand{\la}{\lambda} \newcommand{\gam}{\gamma} \newcommand{\st}{\pi_{st}} \newcommand{\pa}{\pi_{pa}} \newcommand{\BF}{\Theta} \newcommand{\supm}{\mathcal{M}^{a}} \newcommand{\sm}{M} \newcommand{\m}{m} \newcommand{\nfree}{NF} \newcommand{\vsupm}{\mathcal{M}^{sa}} \newcommand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e8qFDMzs2u9xf5ie6/belief-functions-and-decision-theory |
# Basic Inframeasure Theory
$\newcommand{\m}{m} \newcommand{\vsupm}{\mathcal{M}^{sa}} \newcommand{\supm}{\mathcal{M}^{a}} \newcommand{\la}{\lambda} \newcommand{\pf}{f^{+}} \newcommand{\sm}{M} \newcommand{\sig}{\sigma} a$
Our task in this post will be to develop the basic theory and notation for inframeasures and sa-m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YAa4qcMyoucRS2Ykr/basic-inframeasure-theory |
# Are We Right about How Effective Mockery Is?
Crossposted from [Figuring Figuring](https://figuringfiguring.com/2020/07/24/are-we-right-about-how-effective-mockery-is/).
_I did a second survey that fixed some of the flaws of the first s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XuzNqCuecsGHvKxiA/are-we-right-about-how-effective-mockery-is-1 |
# Model splintering: moving from one imperfect model to another
# 1. The big problem
In the last few months, I've become convinced that there is a key meta-issue in AI safety; a problem that seems to come up in all sorts of areas.$\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1 |
# Technical model refinement formalism
**This post has been mainly superceeded by [this one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nQxqSsHfexivsd6vB/generalised-models-as-a-category)**.
# Introduction
$\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcomma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/89qWCy6yi2eeFGsRu/technical-model-refinement-formalism |
# Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC
Most weeks, the disaster that was the head of the FDA not having any understanding of statistics and not making any attempt to think about the world would have been the headline. Then the CDC decided to revise its guidelines on testing from being for it to largely being against it, un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xsiAW6iXfJwZPQaXH/covid-8-27-the-fall-of-the-cdc |
# Notes on "The Anthropology of Childhood"
Crossposted from [The Whole Sky](https://thewholesky.wordpress.com/2020/08/27/notes-on-anthropology-of-childhood-by-david-lancy/).
I read David Lancy’s “[The Anthropology of Childhood: Cherubs, Chattel, and Changelings](https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Anthropology_o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwM7hnT9ysE3suwfk/notes-on-the-anthropology-of-childhood |
# Preface to the sequence on economic growth
On Lesswrong, when we talk about artificial intelligence, we tend to focus on the technical aspects, such as potential designs, specific developments, and future capabilities. From an engineering perspective, this focus makes sense. But most people here aren't interested in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ADWcxNjQN3pbywtg/preface-to-the-sequence-on-economic-growth |
# "On Bullshit" and "On Truth," by Harry Frankfurt
_**Salticidae Philosophiae**_ _is_ _a series of abstracts, commentaries, and reviews on philosophical articles and books._
Harry Frankfurt asks, “What _is_ bullshit, anyway?” Also, “What is truth?” but we all know that book proposal wouldn’t have flown except as a co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5LNQZw6YsPysvp5b/on-bullshit-and-on-truth-by-harry-frankfurt |
# Zibbaldone With It All
Less [Zettelkasten](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettelkasten-method-1)! More [Zibbaldone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonplace_book#Zibaldone)!
A Zettelkasten requires you to intricately interconnect and crosslink your thoughts, figuring out exactly how each con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZhGnwtEmr42WJGi9A/zibbaldone-with-it-all |
# How to teach things well
_(This is a post on my thoughts on good teaching techniques from a daily blogging project, that I thought might be of interest to LessWrong readers)_
Introduction
------------
This is a blog post on how to teach things well. I’ll mostly be focusing on forms of teaching that involve prepara... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AmNjHo8xXMKnZEWRS/how-to-teach-things-well |
# My guide to lifelogging
I've defended the practice of [lifelogging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifelog) as a means of life extension [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8mwvvvpjMGcZLAKH/the-case-for-lifelogging-as-life-extension). In this post I'll provide a fairly comprehensive guide on how to lifelog. Since... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9yxYzf2Sq64ZTmNWK/my-guide-to-lifelogging |
# The Case for Human Genetic Engineering
This is the first post in what I hope will be a series of posts arguing that genetically engineering humans may provide a huge benefit to individuals and society as a whole. In the interest of creating something readable, this post will largely ignore the controversies and unin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5FrpeM7L2kfhxycNQ/the-case-for-human-genetic-engineering-1 |
# Objective Dog Ratings: An Introduction & Explanation
Because they’re not all good dogs, Brent.
Obviously, not everyone wants the same thing from dogs, but that’s not necessarily the same as saying that any dog is as good as the next, or even that any dog rating system must be subjective. If we’re going to entertain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uAYz5jMHPt4xgXwr5/objective-dog-ratings-an-introduction-and-explanation |
# Updates and additions to "Embedded Agency"
Abram Demski and Scott Garrabrant's "[Embedded Agency](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency/)" has been updated with quite a bit of new content from Abram. All the changes are live today, and can be found at any of these links:
* as a hand-drawn sequence ([LW link](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vYg8MyLL4cMMaPQJ/updates-and-additions-to-embedded-agency |
# Meaningful Rest
An exercise: Set a [5 minute timer](https://www.neelnanda.io/blog/post-28-on-creativity-the-joys-of-5-minute-timers), and list the things you _want_ to do when you feel tired and low-energy. Then, set another 5 minute timer, and list the things you **feel rejuvenated after having done** \- the things... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iYR9hKzTKGhZwTPWK/meaningful-rest |
# Pong from pixels without reading "Pong from Pixels"
At the beginning of this summer I finished an undergraduate degree in maths and physics and I decided to spend some time preparing for my master’s degree in AI by learning some reinforcement learning (RL). It’s not like there was a whole lot else to do this summer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipxmEgNeqFkjJAmx3/pong-from-pixels-without-reading-pong-from-pixels |
# Thoughts on Neuralink update?
[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVvmgjBL74w) is the full stream.
I haven't seen LessWrong discuss BCI technology all that much, so I'm curious what some of the people here think about the current SOTA, and whether such devices will eventually be able to live up to their lofty pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uELFzKNziCyrkWP3W/thoughts-on-neuralink-update |
# microCOVID.org: A tool to estimate COVID risk from common activities
This is a linkpost for a model and web tool (that I and several friends created) to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities:
This website contains three outputs of our work:
1. **a web** [**calculator**]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krarE7WFijAtHf3hm/microcovid-org-a-tool-to-estimate-covid-risk-from-common |
# interpreting GPT: the logit lens
This post relates an observation I've made in my work with GPT-2, which I have not seen made elsewhere.
IMO, this observation sheds a good deal of light on how the GPT-2/3/etc models (hereafter just "GPT") work internally.
There is an accompanying [Colab notebook](https://colab.res... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AcKRB8wDpdaN6v6ru/interpreting-gpt-the-logit-lens |
# Plans / prepping for possible political violence from upcoming US election?
The US presidential election is now just 2 months away! There's a (IMO) plausible argument that we might have a disputed election that leads to large-scale political violence; for details see
* [Vox: "Will He Go? A law professor fears a m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jr99ihYahCQY6XdDN/plans-prepping-for-possible-political-violence-from-upcoming |
# (Humor) AI Alignment Critical Failure Table
The "Friendly AI Critical Failure Table" was originally posted by Eliezer in 2003; when I ran across a mention of it somewhere, I realized that a lot of people probably haven't seen this old classic yet.
(For people not familiar with the concept, "critical failure tables"... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DW8CjebNuzcvYHBXv/humor-ai-alignment-critical-failure-table |
# Helping people to solve their problems
Introduction
------------
[Humans are not automatically strategic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBRWb2Em5SNeWYwwB/humans-are-not-automatically-strategic). Our goals are complicated, the world is complicated, and [actually doing things](https://www.neelnanda.io/blog/become-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a2X6z2eiwxviKEiKP/helping-people-to-solve-their-problems |
# Online LessWrong Community Weekend
From 11th-13th September aspiring rationalists will gather for 3 days of socialising, fun and intellectual exploration. There will be a few pre-planned activities, but most of the content will be unconference style and participant driven.
On Monday, September 6th, participants wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/wbB7yu54MCRKSE7Wm/online-lesswrong-community-weekend |
# Reflections on AI Timelines Forecasting Thread
It’s been exciting to see people engage with the [AI forecasting thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines) that Ben, Daniel, and I set up! The thread was inspired by Alex Irpan’s AGI timeline update, and our hypothesis th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6LJjzTo5xEBui8PqE/reflections-on-ai-timelines-forecasting-thread |
# Why is Bayesianism important for rationality?
My impression from the Sequences seems to be that Eliezer considers Bayesianism to be a core element of rationality. Some people have even referred to the community as Bayesian Rationalists. I've always found it curious, like it seemed like more of a technicality most of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3uxX2cCH9oxANzpk3/why-is-bayesianism-important-for-rationality |
# SlateStarCodex Online Meetup: Connor Leahy on GPT-N
**Title of talk**: _We Got Our AGI Firealarm, Now What?_
**Summary**: There has been much disagreement over how big of a deal GPT3 is in the larger context of progress towards strong AGI. While most pundits will claim it's not "really" "intelligent" or "conscious"... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipT9SupH4s6xXYD29/slatestarcodex-online-meetup-connor-leahy-on-gpt-n |
# Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
## Highlights
538 releases [model](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) of the US elections; Trump predicted to win ~30% of the time.
[Study](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00669-6) offers instructive comparison of New York covid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hRsRgRcRk3zHLPpqm/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020 |
# Anthropic Reasoning and Perspective-Based Arguments
This pandemic has allowed me some time to finish up my anthropic arguments. The complete argument is now accessible on my website, https://www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com
My approach is a Perspective-Based Argument (PBA). I think anthropic problems often end up par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjNRPgZAx8cgHgH9n/anthropic-reasoning-and-perspective-based-arguments |
# Russian x-risks newsletter Summer 2020
Russian opposition leader Navalny was poisoned. I read [rumours](https://twitter.com/tanilbar/status/1297921336292016128) that he was doing an investigation about the origins of coronavirus pandemic and its possible relation to the explosion in the Vector biolab Novosibirsk las... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4wJMEau327sMFGCE3/russian-x-risks-newsletter-summer-2020 |
# The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster
_Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Also, following these steps slightly wrong could result in you losing 100% of your savings. I have listed what I think are the most likely pitfalls, but still, beware._
_Thanks to gilch and Mark Xu for helping edit this post, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8NSKMMDXS8gjFHfQa/the-box-spread-trick-get-rich-slightly-faster |
# If there were an interactive software teaching Yudkowskian rationality, what concepts would you want to see it teach?
I've been noticing some complaints (such as [this post by Richard Ngo](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FuGfR3jL3sw6r8kB4/ricraz-s-shortform?commentId=75gg3Nzn6KMst8eNt)) lately about the quality of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAuFkfib3HirgTbEF/if-there-were-an-interactive-software-teaching-yudkowskian |
# [AN #115]: AI safety research problems in the AI-GA framework
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world
**Newsletter #115**
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bevquxoYwkMx3NK6L/an-115-ai-safety-research-problems-in-the-ai-ga-framework |
# Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers
Recently I [announced the Study Group for Progress](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RbK3GqT3uGxdghRfR/announcing-the-study-group-for-progress): a weekly discussion/Q&A on the history, economics and philosophy of progress, with featured guests including Robert Gordo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/639swnxzb8YLGbcoR/study-group-for-progress-50-off-for-lesswrongers |
# Sunday September 6, 12pm (PT) — Casual hanging out with the LessWrong community
This Sunday at 12pm (PDT), we will have another one of our weekly online meetups. This time we will simply hangout without much of an introduction. In the future we will be back with our curated talks, but my guess is having a more casua... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RrHTmnLqcGg9Cfb2r/sunday-september-6-12pm-pt-casual-hanging-out-with-the |
# What's the best overview of common Micromorts?
I want to get generally oriented on how various common risks compare against each other. I've seen some of this come up in recent Covid discussion, but I'm interested in a good article that's like "Here's all the most dangerous stuff it's likely that you do, and here's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SCuTkCfoKbf9ShyaN/what-s-the-best-overview-of-common-micromorts |
# "How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read", by Pierre Bayard
_**Salticidae Philosophiae**_ _is_ _a series of abstracts, commentaries, and reviews on philosophical articles and books._
Somewhere out there is a universe where my first post here was _How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read_, and ours is flawed by com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybRaZMr3MKdxa89qg/how-to-talk-about-books-you-haven-t-read-by-pierre-bayard |
# Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC
This week’s news all centers around policy decisions. The new data contains few important surprises, so attention shifts to what actions will be taken and how that will affect the path we follow going forward. The CDC’s fall and transformation into an arm of the White House reelection cam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RF5HjYYLY5FWgtA9v/covid-9-3-meet-the-new-cdc |
# Emotional valence vs RL reward: a video game analogy
*(Update Sept 2021: I no longer believe that we make decisions that maximize the expected sum of future rewards—see discussion of TD learning* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrewt3rLFiKWrKuyZ/big-picture-of-phasic-dopamine)*. It's more like "maximizing e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TtBik82RQLBCG3h8j/emotional-valence-vs-rl-reward-a-video-game-analogy |
# Using GPT-N to Solve Interpretability of Neural Networks: A Research Agenda
Tl;dr We are attempting to make neural networks (NN) modular, have GPT-N interpret each module for us, in order to catch mesa-alignment and inner-alignment failures.
Completed Project
=================
Train a neural net with an added loss... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zXfqftW8y69YzoXLj/using-gpt-n-to-solve-interpretability-of-neural-networks-a |
# Estimating the ROI of Insulation
A few months ago I wrote about [trying to decide what to do with our shed](https://www.jefftk.com/p/outbuilding-thoughts). It turns out that not only is our property too small for a tiny house ("backyard cottage"), the only reason we're able to have the shed where it is it's because ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67yzoZE88Qd3EjQ8d/estimating-the-roi-of-insulation |
# Open & Welcome Thread - September 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PkpuvsFYr6yuYnppy/open-and-welcome-thread-september-2020 |
# Hello ordinary folks, I'm the Chosen One
*This is an informal argument against [the fine-tuned universe](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/fine-tuning/#toc). The complete argument can be found on [my website](https://www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com/about-fine-tuned-universe/). The purpose is to show the importance of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R9QkdCeLkeqW34TSz/hello-ordinary-folks-i-m-the-chosen-one-1 |
# When should I be concerned about my Oura measurements indicating COVID-19?
The [Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute](https://wvumedicine.org/rni/) seems to have developed an app that can detect COVID-19 3 days before symptoms based on Oura data but the app isn't publically available. How should a user that doesn't ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DqkD3pFSiGWJJ5wBt/when-should-i-be-concerned-about-my-oura-measurements |
# Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language
*(Talk given at* [*an event on Sunday 16th of August*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9QdXySpydd6p8tcN/sunday-august-16-12pm-pdt-talks-by-ozzie-gooen-habryka-ben)*. Ozzie Gooen is responsible for the talk, Justis Mills edited the transcript. *
*If you're a curated a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kTzADPE26xh3dyTEu/multivariate-estimation-and-the-squiggly-language |
# Conflict, the Rules of Engagement, and Professionalism
*(Talk given at* [*an event on Sunday 16th of August*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9QdXySpydd6p8tcN/sunday-august-16-12pm-pdt-talks-by-ozzie-gooen-habryka-ben)*. habryka is responsible for the talk, Justis Mills edited the transcript. *
*If you're a curate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jkvAYpzjk8DF5tszD/conflict-the-rules-of-engagement-and-professionalism |
# Stop pressing the Try Harder button
_(This is a post from a daily blogging experiment I did at_ _[neelnanda.io](http://neelnanda.io/), which I thought might also fit the tastes of LessWrong. This is very much in the spirit of [Trying to Try](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLJwTJ7uGPA5Qphbp/trying-to-try))_
I recen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FY6bZAxHTcMi5nhyb/stop-pressing-the-try-harder-button |
# Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust
# Principles for building a better kind of social network with webs of trust
## Abstract
Discussion of the unrealized potential of webs of trust as a decentralized institution for appointing moderators and curators.
Webs of Trust s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZdtFBCtixqay5aoWF/design-thoughts-for-building-a-better-kind-of-social-space |
# Ice
What you’re looking at is a geological formation called Dry Falls, in the Sun Lakes-Dry Falls state park in my home state of Washington. The Dry Falls are a series of escarpments and cliffs near Grand Coulee, deep in Eastern Washington’s ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nJihRcJkjHBYR4XJt/ice |
# Reference Classes
_Epistemic Status:_ Just some thoughts off the top of my head
Fake Nous recently featured an article on [agent-centered evidence](https://fakenous.net/?p=1857&fbclid=IwAR16g_LKCCh9IWL01Tbd5Z8_KkCmWJH2fkTxtDvoP6oa0LqCNN_s8m4j4qg):
> Sue had a premonition about the flight, and then the plane crashe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ErGowWsgSKZWEqK9k/reference-classes |
# The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels
Previously: [Unifying the Simulacra Definitions](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/08/03/unifying-the-simulacra-definitions/), [Simulacra Levels and their Interactions](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/15/simulacra-and-covid-19/), [On Negative Feedback and S... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v6NBpQc2AzWjzxJ4S/the-four-children-of-the-seder-as-the-simulacra-levels |
# How long does it takes to read the sequences?
Sorry if that has been answered before, I searched quickly and could not find the answer.
To be more specific, how long does it takes an average reader to read all of the texts in [https://www.lesswrong.com/rationality](https://www.lesswrong.com/rationality) ?
I alread... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EgcT434K8AkB5Wygq/how-long-does-it-takes-to-read-the-sequences |
# A Toy Model of Hingeyness
[This is a crosspost from the Effective Altruism forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S396u3ymwcsfL727W/a-toy-model-of-hingeyness)
_Epistemic status: Attempt to clarify a vague concept. This should be seen as a jumping of point and not as a definitive model._
**Definition ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4bDHxLmye3GitxiT3/a-toy-model-of-hingeyness |
# "Learning to Summarize with Human Feedback" - OpenAI
[https://openai.com/blog/learning-to-summarize-with-human-feedback/](https://openai.com/blog/learning-to-summarize-with-human-feedback/)
Eliezer's Summary/Thoughts: [https://mobile.twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1301954347933208578](https://mobile.twitter.com/ESY... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mWJbYebezFdhoFHP6/learning-to-summarize-with-human-feedback-openai-1 |
# Luna First, But Not To Live There
In certain corners of the astronautics community, there’s a real and substantial debate over whether to prioritize Mars or Luna when planning out the future of human spaceflight. There are good arguments on each side, but I think that neither side makes the correct case.
Luna is at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wWmXso92Zkntvzuxg/luna-first-but-not-to-live-there |
# Loneliness
Loneliness is an inevitable part of the human condition, no matter your culture or set of relationships. You have to spend time alone. And sometimes, you'll spend time not only alone, but undistracted. The work is done for the day. You have no plans. There are no pressing errands or chores. You are not ti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xw7d7poQuTz7TCovu/loneliness-1 |
# Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID
so a new research found that high dose of Vitamin D significantly improve out comes for COVID patient:
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub)
another... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dzqvDyKTieGkNB4Ny/efficacy-of-vitamin-d-in-helping-with-covid |
# Escalation Outside the System
Transcript of a discussion on a friend's wall on the merits of [responding "guillotines"](https://twitter.com/McClellandShane/status/1300953597186895872) to union text-bankers when asked what the country needs more of:
> **Me**: When you respond "guillotines" what do you expect the cam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GzJW8Wjsy536RzgFJ/escalation-outside-the-system |
# Indignation in response to the 1890 census
In reading about the development of technology, I keep an eye out for changes in society as well. I commented recently that [we don’t seem to celebrate major achievements as much anymore](https://rootsofprogress.org/celebrations-of-progress). But it’s not just technology th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sa2HENWSZymu9rBHQ/indignation-in-response-to-the-1890-census |
# CTWTB: Paths of Computation State
*This is the second post of Category Theory Without The Baggage;* [*first post here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4DuwmtqF3HhNwvua/category-theory-without-the-baggage)*. You can probably follow most of this post without reading the first one. Be warned that I am a novice when i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTP8eQkiu44fKaBSf/ctwtb-paths-of-computation-state |
# Updates Thread
If you've [updated your belief](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Belief_update) about something you think is worth noting, post it here.
* It doesn't have to be a full blown "mind change", just an [incremental](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/627DZcvme7nLDrbZu/update-yourself-incrementally) [update]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j7TsBk9AxnLRxAEBN/updates-thread |
# How To Fermi Model
*\[Note from Eli in 2020: I wrote this document in 2016, in conjunction with two workshops that I helped Oliver Habryka run. If I were to try and write a similar document today, it would likely be substantially different in form and style. For instance, reading this in 2020, I’m not very compelled... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTxHnfoD3L8CdezcG/how-to-fermi-model |
# What's the CFAR position on how the workbook can be used?
The [CFAR handbook](https://rationality.org/files/cfar-handbook.pdf) is a great resource for applied rationality. I talked with another rationlist in Berlin about creating a reading group around it. Did CFAR articulate a position around how the handbook can b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3pxXyeQozF2Yj2ZR/what-s-the-cfar-position-on-how-the-workbook-can-be-used |
# Leslie's Firing Squad Can't Save The Fine-Tuning Argument
*This post argues against [fine-tuning](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/fine-tuning/), especially the fine-tuning argument for design. It again shows the importance of perspectives in reasoning as discussed in a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9gdyYmAsgZpxDhCnh/leslie-s-firing-squad-can-t-save-the-fine-tuning-argument |
# Loneliness and the paradox of choice
Loneliness is a problem of decision-making. Being around other people, whether in a social or work setting, comes with many supports to our decision-making process. In an idealized process of decision-making, each time the question "What's next?" pops up, we imagine a menu of opt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdYiDBjYRbXQZkTxm/loneliness-and-the-paradox-of-choice |
# [AN #116]: How to make explanations of neurons compositional
HIGHLIGHTS
==========
**[Compositional Explanations of Neurons](https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14032)** _(Jesse Mu et al)_ (summarized by Robert): Network dissection is an interpretability technique introduced in 2017, which uses a dataset of images with dens... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jCZhy3nqH2MoethZQ/an-116-how-to-make-explanations-of-neurons-compositional |
# Safer sandboxing via collective separation
_Epistemic status: speculative brainstorming. Follow-up to [this post on AGIs as collectives](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-populations). Note that I've changed the term_ population AGI _to_ collective AGI _for consistency with Bostrom's use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fji2nHBaB6SjdSscr/safer-sandboxing-via-collective-separation |
# Capturing Ideas
*Related to:* [*Babble and Prune*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pC6DYFLPMTCbEwH8W)*,* [*What Makes People Intellectually Active?*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XYYyzgyuRH5rFN64K/what-makes-people-intellectually-active)*,* [*Zettelkasten*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PPkheZsNvkM8Ey2uL/capturing-ideas |
# How easily can we separate a friendly AI in design space from one which would bring about a hyperexistential catastrophe?
(I've written about this in my [Shortform](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LDPcAEhn35uoC2Hz3/shortform & may regurgitate some stuff) and may regurgitate some stuff from there.)
Eliezer propo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFKBwbBobfFYCqFrN/how-easily-can-we-separate-a-friendly-ai-in-design-space |
# Is there a way to view "read" LessWrong posts?
I want to be able to see the LessWrong posts that I've already read/visited, like in a list. I mainly just want to be able to re-save some ones that I really liked but deleted from my bookmarks.
I didn't vote on all the posts I read (it's kind of like a habit I had to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJDrauGE2wH89o38N/is-there-a-way-to-view-read-lesswrong-posts |
# Safety via selection for obedience
[In a previous post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/boLPsyNwd6teK5key/p/BXMCgpktdiawT3K5v), I argued that it’s plausible that “the most interesting and intelligent behaviour \[of AGIs\] won’t be directly incentivised by their reward functions” - instead, “many of the selection pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7jNveWML34EsjCD4c/safety-via-selection-for-obedience |
# On Chesterton's Fence
TLDR; Chesterton’s Fences are important, and very hard to identify/evaluate. With finite time, bountiful stupidity and inflated egos, it is too easy to not look deeply enough at existing ways of doing things and understand why they are the way they are before attempting to “fix” them. Reading [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NMxmGFhvncg9WfYkP/on-chesterton-s-fence |
# Do mesa-optimizer risk arguments rely on the train-test paradigm?
Going by the [Risks from Learned Optimization sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB), it's not clear if mesa-optimization is a big threat if the model continues to be updated throughout deployment. I suspect this has been discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5foHZhZ7RBhwRL7Z/do-mesa-optimizer-risk-arguments-rely-on-the-train-test |
# Social Capital Paradoxes
*\[Credit for horizontally transmitting these ideas to my brain goes mostly to Jennifer RM, except for the bits at the end about Bowling Alone and The Moral Economy. Apologies to Jennifer for further horizontally spreading.\]*
Vertical/Horizontal Transmission
===============================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H3wdw2cLNLpcF8pXA/social-capital-paradoxes |
# Covid 9/10: Vitamin D
[Last week: Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/09/03/covid-9-3-meet-the-new-cdc/)
Imagine there is a simple, cheap, safe and effective solution for Covid-19.
The solution is something known to be safe. It is widely available for reasonable prices. Any patents have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d |
# Sunday September 13, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by John Wentworth, Liron and more
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts).
* Each talk will be 3-5 minutes follow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/327tEJuLvqSW2yf4Y/sunday-september-13-12-00pm-pt-talks-by-john-wentworth-liron |
# Should some variant of longtermism identify as a religion?
The material is already there, it wouldn't involve any lies at all. There are many advantages that need to be weighed.
How could it plausibly identify as a religion?
==============================================
There are many reasons you might think that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZoD9CT4HbpzBD3dLT/should-some-variant-of-longtermism-identify-as-a-religion |
# ‘Ugh fields’, or why you can’t even bear to think about that task (Rob Wiblin)
Rob Wiblin with more accessible explanation of the [Ugh Field](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/aversion-ugh-fields) concept on Medium. Some quotes:
> **The problem**
> ===============
>
> Have you ever had a long-overdue task to do, a ta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dCjyeDEuBY2gzrtqS/ugh-fields-or-why-you-can-t-even-bear-to-think-about-that |
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