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3440d140-8176-4d07-a3fb-2839795d47f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In 1 year and 5 years what do you see as "the normal" world.
We all have a mental image of pre-COVID normal.
I often hear people saying "I cannot wait to get back to normal." or asking "When will we get back to normal?" I think that is an expectation that is sure to be disappointed. I suspect that is the case for mos... |
6e0dcfbf-2847-486b-909f-f0d1caf014d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Public Transit is not Infinitely Safe
I recently came across this tweet, screenshotted into a popular Facebook group:
> Here's a truth bomb:
>
> Take the U.S. city you're most afraid of, one with a very high murder rate or property crime rate.
>
> If it has any sort of public transit, it is still statistically sa... |
e32a32c3-f236-4ecc-9501-a3c967880806 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Increasing the Interpretability of Recurrent Neural Networks Using Hidden Markov Models
1 Introduction
---------------
Following the recent progress in deep learning, researchers and practitioners of machine learning are recognizing the importance of understanding and interpreting what goes on inside these black bo... |
ebf85974-a77a-4b10-b2f9-8b688af2ec8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Teacher vs. Everyone Else
> A repairer wants your stuff to break down,
> A doctor wants you to get ill,
> A lawyer wants you to get in conflicts,
> A farmer wants you to be hungry,
> But there is only a teacher who wants you to learn.
Of course you see what is wrong with the above "argument / meme / good-thought". ... |
9c1726f4-2418-4455-9e87-e5aaca80d4f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transparent Newcomb's Problem and the limitations of the Erasure framing
One of the aspects of the Erasure Approach that always felt kind of shaky was that in Transparent Newcomb's Problem it required you to forget that you'd seen that the the box was full. Recently come to believe that this really isn't the best way ... |
d3c132e9-32b0-40dc-9248-9ecbb39c4472 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, November 21 - November 28, 2017
You can find the last Open Thread here.
IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE.
|
b12a717b-e747-4a04-8ae7-57c77cc1caf9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | UK Government announces £100 million in funding for Foundation Model Taskforce.
The UK government has recently made some big investments in AI
> The Taskforce, modelled on the success of the COVID-19 Vaccines Taskforce, will develop the safe and reliable use of this pivotal artificial intelligence (AI) across the ec... |
f6679ed8-78e5-4c60-8c50-8612b38aa032 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mistakes repository
This is a repository for major, life-altering mistakes that you or others have made. Detailed accounts of specific mistakes are welcome, and so are mentions of general classes of mistakes that people often make. If similar repositories already exist (inside or outside of LW), links are greatly appr... |
a41aba73-14d3-436d-bde0-32b36e1c0e57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you improve IQ by practicing IQ tests?
As an European, I did never have any IQ test, nor I know anybody who (to my knowledge) was ever administered an IQ test. I looked at some fac-simile IQ tests on the internet, expecially Raven's matrices.
When I began to read online blogs from the United States, I started to ... |
e2b424a6-0620-443c-b738-00b3ead60476 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup :
Discussion article for the meetup :
WHEN: 30 June 2013 04:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Berkeley
Discussion article for the meetup : |
408c1515-62e6-41b7-9379-a981842e75d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The ecology of conviction
Supposing that sincerity has declined, why?
It feels natural to me that sincere enthusiasms should be rare relative to criticism and half-heartedness. But I would have thought this was born of fairly basic features of the situation, and so wouldn’t change over time.
It seems clearly easier ... |
99bfc358-50d3-4897-99bd-50d48c53b97e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to be an amateur polyglot
Setting the stage
Being a polyglot is a problem of definition first. Who can be described as a polyglot? At what level do you actually “speak” the given language? Some sources cite that polyglot means speaking more than 4 languages, others 6. My take is it doesn’t matter. I am more inter... |
36ec1958-dc1f-4328-8b64-ca73fbbec8f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Flinching away from truth” is often about *protecting* the epistemology
Related to: Leave a line of retreat; Categorizing has consequences.
There’s a story I like, about this little kid who wants to be a writer. So she writes a story and shows it to her teacher.
“You misspelt the word ‘ocean’”, says the teacher.
“... |
09ae8313-0c13-48f2-be7a-2f8c7f5f190b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases
You may have heard about IARPA's Sirius Program, which is a proposal to develop serious games that would teach intelligence analysts to recognize and correct their cognitive biases. The intelligence community has a long history of interest in debiasing, and even produced a rational... |
230533f8-613b-4056-b94c-786333d7c59b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Canaries in Technology Mines: Warning Signs of Transformative Progress in AI
1 Canar ies in Technology Mines: Warning Signs of
Transformative Progress in AI
Carla Zoe Cremer 1 and Jess Whittlestone 2
Abstract. 1 In this paper we introduce a method ology for
identify ing early warning sign s of transformative... |
1307fb3f-db35-4261-9379-ab48ca3dd371 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Crucial considerations in the field of Wild Animal Welfare (WAW)
*Cross-posted from my blog,* [*hollyelmore.substack.com*](https://hollyelmore.substack.com/p/crucial-considerations-in-the-field?s=w)
Wild animal welfare (WAW) is:
=============================
* A paradigm that sees the wellbeing and experiences of in... |
6245417b-9c6e-4713-b0d6-34d6c20aecb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents dissolved in coffee
Bottom line
When thinking about embedded agency it might be helpful to drop the notion of ‘agency’ and ‘agents’ sometimes, because it might be confusing or underdefined. Instead one could think of processes running according to the laws of physics. Or of algorithms running on a stack of inte... |
cec2d9fe-3657-4d39-82cc-27d3cd862cd0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Failure By Affective Analogy
Today's post, Failure By Affective Analogy was originally published on 18 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Making analogies to things that have positive or negative connotations is an even better way to make sure you fail.
Discuss the post here (rather... |
28069256-1890-4e64-ba9b-bd98e7907413 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Will, Determinism, And Choice
Rough Summary:
* Free will is not "free" in the sense of being uncaused. Free will is "free" in the sense that you are the cause. You are free to choose between A or B if your choice will determine the outcome.
* Free will and determinism are both assumptions that are implicit in ... |
fe6e8bd7-5efc-4f1b-89cb-0635e87d5d38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014
Previous Open Thread
You know the drill - If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.
3. Open Th... |
379b9f5b-25a7-4833-95e3-06af366efbaf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Wanted: Office Manager (aka Force Multiplier)
We’re looking for a full-time office manager to support our growing [team](https://intelligence.org/team/). It’s a big job that requires organization, initiative, technical chops, and superlative communication skills. You’ll develop, improve, and manage the processes and s... |
45ecfc42-8c68-4db0-847f-d71b5038ba0a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Poset: Examples
The standard $\leq$ relation on integers, the $\subseteq$ relation on sets, and the $|$ (divisibility) relation on natural numbers are all examples of poset orders.
Integer Comparison
================
The set $\mathbb Z$ of integers, ordered by the standard "less than or equal to" operator $\leq$ for... |
ebbc80e9-7848-4c90-b38e-ad23ab00def4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AGI Safety Fundamentals programme is contracting a low-code engineer
TL;DR: Help the [AGI Safety Fundamentals](https://www.eacambridge.org/agi-safety-fundamentals), [Alternative Protein Fundamentals](https://www.eacambridge.org/alternative-protein-fundamentals), and other programs by automating our manual work to supp... |
7e2c8cd3-7f5f-4fad-9c04-81765440eaf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | People with Experience in Wikipedia Editing?
Hi all,
At the Singularity Institute we're looking for a volunteer with experience making edits to Wikipedia. The quality of some Wikipedia pages related to our subject matter could use improvement, but we would like to consult with someone who has an editing background on... |
fdd15e65-2ea1-43db-bef0-f02ab3240a81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I got dysentery so you don’t have to
This summer, I participated in a human challenge trial at the University of Maryland. I spent the days just prior to my 30th birthday sick with shigellosis.
What? Why?
Dysentery is an acute disease in which pathogens attack the intestine. It is most often caused by the bacteria S... |
b9af5cd8-114a-4273-bac1-d9af246b6858 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Closed] Job Offering: Help Communicate Infrabayesianism
Infrabayesianism seems to me (Abram) like a very promising framework for addressing at least some of the problems of AI alignment.
* Like logical induction, it solves the realizability problem, creating an epistemic theory suitable for embedded agents.
* Unli... |
bd44bccb-bd97-4504-a504-305084420cb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring hardware overhang
Measuring hardware overhang
Summary
How can we measure a potential AI or hardware overhang? For the problem of chess, modern algorithms gained two orders of magnitude in compute (or ten years in time) compared to older versions. While it took the supercomputer "Deep Blue" to win over worl... |
dce7020b-f0c6-4831-908d-9da6d25d6c6b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Action Advising with Advice Imitation in Deep Reinforcement Learning
1. Introduction
----------------
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has made it possible to build end-to-end learning agents without having to handcraft task-specific features, as it is showcased in various challenging domains such as StarCraft II V... |
da498ae6-4f9a-4f92-8861-d050e8d87663 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Core of the Alignment Problem is...
*Produced As Part Of The SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program 2022 Under* [*John Wentworth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth)
Introduction
============
When trying to tackle a hard problem, a generally effective opening tactic is to[Hold Off On Proposing So... |
07eb89f7-d653-49fa-a7f2-ebe58fc6d47f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of a GridWorld Agent-Simulator (Part 1 of N)
AKA: Decision Transformer Interpretability 2.0
==============================================
Credit: <h... |
b2c6ab55-1f69-4c30-a808-12701a909a1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Definitions, characterizations, and hard-to-ground variables
[I am hoping this post is not too repetitive, does not spend too much time rehashing basics... also: What should this be tagged with?]
Systems are not always made to be understandable - especially if they were not designed in the first place, like the human... |
924e1cd4-2ca3-4750-b382-00d2992165ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dictatorship Problem
(Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not that of any movement or organization.)
This post aims to show that, over the next decade, it is quite likely that most democratic Western countries will become fascist dictatorships - this is not a tail risk, but the most likely overall outcome. P... |
8f33c79d-d5a2-4474-9ed4-c16f026bf5ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Scott Alexander bad at math?
This post is a third installment to the sequence that I started with The Truth About Mathematical Ability and Innate Mathematical Ability. I begin to discuss the role of aesthetics in math.
There was strong interest in the first two posts in my sequence, and I apologize for the long d... |
91790d00-aae1-4302-b7bf-92b7851c9988 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How Could AI Governance Go Wrong?
*(I gave a* [*talk*](https://youtu.be/agh49DwhUFU) *to EA Cambridge in February 2022. People have told me they found it useful as an introduction/overview so I edited the transcript, which can be found below. If you're familiar with AI governance in general, you may still be intereste... |
e30ea5dd-f49f-4c98-a30a-6ace61e9da4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intranasal mRNA Vaccines?
This is not advice. Do not actually make this, and especially do not make this and then publicly say "I snorted mRNA because Jonathan said it was a good idea". Because I'm not saying it's a good idea.
Everyone remembers johnswentworth making RaDVac almost four years ago now. RaDVac was desig... |
4cdc3d61-a6de-44bc-9ea1-e407a977da76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Common misconceptions about OpenAI
I have recently encountered a number of people with misconceptions about OpenAI. Some common impressions are accurate, and others are not. This post is intended to provide clarification on some of these points, to help people know what to expect from the organization and to figure ou... |
ed00d602-ec76-46d6-b175-e56b505e9051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Luck, Skill, and Improving at Games
None |
d40700ef-99af-463e-84d0-1865e3a36f88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Governance Course - Week 1 Reflections
[Epistemic status: I'm trying to make my thinking legible to myself and others, rather than trying to compose something highly polished here. I think I have good reasons for saying what I say and will try to cite sources where possible, but nonetheless take it with some grains of... |
11786fe6-2c36-4157-b2b8-866a222c27db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Speculation on Path-Dependance in Large Language Models.
*Epistemic Status: **Highly Speculative.** I spent less than a day thinking about this in particular, and though I have spent a few mo... |
8390f437-db11-44bf-a15b-dd28d852163a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Best Textbooks on Every Subject
For years, my self-education was stupid and wasteful. I learned by consuming blog posts, Wikipedia articles, classic texts, podcast episodes, popular books, [video lectures](http://academicearth.org/), peer-reviewed papers, [Teaching Company](http://www.teach12.com/) courses, and Cl... |
5639367e-2d85-4187-81ea-ef4bb737a669 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bias towards simple functions; application to alignment?
Summary
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are generally used with large numbers of parameters relative to the number of given data-points, so that the solutions they output are far from uniquely determined. How do DNNs 'choose' what solution to output? Some fairly re... |
8a786439-a9c4-4b3d-b615-1ab23a6d3121 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polyphasic Sleep Support Group
Because there are a significant number of people attempting polyphasic sleep simultaneously, I figured that it would be high-value to create a Google group / mailing list for those who are trying it and would like emotional support, advice, and encouragement. This is for sharing your exp... |
e46993ed-15cd-474d-a7d0-3a05ae69ef18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 18 November 2011 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Charles Dickens Tavern, 290 Collins St, Melbourne
This month's social meetup is at the Charles Dickens Tavern, on Collins St between Elizabeth and Swanston, starting at 7pm.
... |
8bc55f15-5eaf-43e8-b0bd-5bddd43ca247 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What would you do if you had a lot of money/power/influence and you thought that AI timelines were very short?
To make things more specific:
Lot of money = $1B+; lot of power = CEO of $10B+ org; lot of influence = 1M+ followers, or an advisor to someone with a lot of money or power.
AI timelines = time until an AI... |
0d68c87d-6d90-49cb-aee7-1d4f6a0e3423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Privacy in a Digital World
Introduction
For the purposes of this text, privacy terms the ability of an individual or a group to remain free from observation and choose what information about them becomes known to a given party. We primarily concern ourselves here with Information Privacy - relating to the data about a... |
b5d18b5e-f681-4b3c-9acc-483bebeaccd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Love and Sex in Salt Lake City
Discussion article for the meetup : Love and Sex in Salt Lake City
WHEN: 16 February 2013 01:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1558 Palo Verde Way QE#12, cottonwood heights, ut 84121
It's February, the arbitrarily themed month of love and sex! Naturally, we're having a themed discussion... |
deaaea69-f97b-468e-a082-e37b02208859 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Realistic thought experiments
What if…
…after you died, you would be transported back and forth in time and get to be each of the other people who ever lived, one at a time, but with no recollection of your other lives?
…you had lived your entire life once already, and got to the end and achieved disappointingly few... |
82fe2a6b-b6eb-40f3-b7fb-d8c4fb5f2a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Massive consequences
Hypothesis: whenever you make a choice, the consequences of it are almost as likely to be bad as good, because the scale of the intended consequences is radically smaller than the scale of the chaotic unintended effects. (The expected outcome is still as positive as you think, it’s just a small po... |
88a6148e-c84b-4ee1-b457-d76b70089314 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [MLSN #9] Verifying large training runs, security risks from LLM access to APIs, why natural selection may favor AIs over humans
As part of a larger community building effort, [CAIS](https://safe.ai/) is writing a safety newsletter that is designed to cover empirical safety research and be palatable to the broader mac... |
dfceb9c0-951e-4411-bf96-67553141de6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Setting up LW meetups in unlikely places: Positive Data Point
Meeting fellow LessWrongians in meat space is a great opportunity to participate in interesting discussions and to make new friends. But there aren't that many places in the world (hopefully, yet) where regularly active meetup groups exist. Here is a story ... |
7e07d689-b18f-4b6a-a2df-10dcf84f62fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Computationally-Relevant and Sparsely Interacting Features in Neural Networks
This is a linkpost for our two recent papers:
1. An exploration of using degeneracy in the loss landscape for interpretability https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.10927
2. An empirical test of an interpreta... |
c4612ab6-50b2-4fc5-aa56-a11833e53652 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Are limited-horizon agents a good heuristic for the off-switch problem?
(This is my first post, sorry if this is covered elsewhere.)
Implicit in the problem of a superhuman AI's reward being misspecified and turning everything into paperclips is the fact that the agent is optimizing over e.g. "number of paperclips" w... |
877c8bf5-67a1-46e2-9096-6cd53038976e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #98]: Understanding neural net training by seeing which gradients were helpful
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ev... |
b09a3d50-06ee-4eb9-8e87-09810ed0eca9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Overconfidence
[Epistemic status: This is basic stuff to anyone who has read the Sequences, but since many readers here haven’t I hope it is not too annoying to regurgitate it. Also, ironically, I’m not actually that sure of my thesis, which I guess means I’m extra-sure of my thesis]
I.
A couple of days ago, the ... |
ed671ecf-02c7-4bce-946a-5bcda9520910 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The escape duty
I’m going to explain one of my favorite life-improvement techniques over the past couple of years.
I thought of it as a result of talking to Ben Hoffman. He mentioned some innovation that worked for him, and sounded impossible for me. I think it was ‘regularly reflecting on what you are doing and how ... |
cc11b3bb-3267-41c0-9c69-3252f5ce9bbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Not Taking Over the World
Today's post, Not Taking Over the World was originally published on 15 December 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It's rather difficult to imagine a way in which you could create an AI, and not somehow either take over or destroy the world. How can you use unlimited ... |
9445816d-d420-4d28-99b1-def4d5cc1392 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Return of the Survey
[UPDATE: Survey is now closed. Thanks to everyone who took it. Results soon. Ignore everything below.]
Last week, I asked people for help writing a survey. I've since taken some of your suggestions. Not all, because I wanted to keep the survey short, and because the survey software I'm using made... |
3bbea5ef-ebde-4536-ab50-d19395d6a098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Risk aversion does not explain people's betting behaviours
Expected utility maximalisation is an excellent prescriptive decision theory. It has all the nice properties that we want and need in a decision theory, and can be argued to be "the" ideal decision theory in some senses.
However, it is completely wrong as a d... |
b211a9bd-d5e7-4ccc-bb8d-c4afc96c03ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Rationality and Mainstream Philosophy
Part of the sequence: Rationality and Philosophy
Despite Yudkowsky's distaste for mainstream philosophy, Less Wrong is largely a philosophy blog. Major topics include epistemology, philosophy of language, free will, metaphysics, metaethics, normative ethics, machine et... |
a27b641d-bcaa-47ab-a022-ef6af80f4ed1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I previously characterized Michael Vassar's theory on suffering as follows: "Pain is not suffering. Pain is just an attention signal. Suffering is when one neural system tells you to pay attention, and another says it doesn't want the state of the world to be like this." While not too far off the mark, it turns out th... |
a63e617c-bcdf-4e6b-927a-264d65f442be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | # **Announcement of AI-Plans.com Critique-a-thon September 2023**
Date: Friday, 17th to 27th September
The prize fund will be $1000
First place: $400 Second Place: $250 Third Place: $150 Honorable Mention: $100 Honourable Mention: $100
AI-Plans.com is an open platform for AI alignment plans, where users can give fe... |
7cb09e97-da89-4b75-b1f9-12bdcb167aa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Treacherous Turn is finished! (AI-takeover-themed tabletop RPG)
Long ago I fantasized about an AI-takeover-themed tabletop roleplaying game. Well, now it exists! [website, discord, twitter]
The Game
The Treacherous Turn is a tabletop roleplaying game in which the players collectively act as a misaligned AI in th... |
b38e5f86-6ebe-4591-91fe-a8ecc1447b6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When wishful thinking works
This idea is due to Scott Garrabrant.
Suppose you have propositions φ1,...,φn, and you want to form beliefs about whether they are true; specifically, you want to form a joint probability distribution P over the events φ1,...,φn. But there’s a catch: these propositions might refer to the j... |
62cd91a2-4261-4b18-b865-5a9d218c5ca3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeper agents appear resilient to activation steering
Produced as the capstone project for AI Safety Fundamentals Course Oct 2024 - Jan 2025
Overview
Anthropic's paper Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training[1] demonstrated that it is possible to create a misaligned AI that is r... |
2df42c6d-c46a-473f-ad64-f8026c8b21e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguments about Highly Reliable Agent Designs as a Useful Path to Artificial Intelligence Safety
This paper is a revised and expanded version of my blog post Plausible cases for HRAD work, and locating the crux in the "realism about rationality" debate, now with David Manheim as co-author.
Abstract:
> Several differ... |
1c8187d3-4553-4f47-ab33-8bbf48861e8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Innocentive challenge: $8000 for examples promoting altruistic behavior
A challenge recently posted on Innocentive seemed to me like something that may interest many LWers: "Models Motivating and Supporting Altruism Within Communities", with a grand prize of $8000. To quote from the challenge:
> We are interes... |
9d53091f-f9ad-49cf-9770-ca7b4020548b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much fraud is there in academia?
Quinn wrote a while ago "I heard a pretty haunting take about how long it took to discover steroids in bike races. Apparently, there was a while where a "few bad apples" narrative remained popular even when an ostensibly "one of the good ones" guy was outperforming guys discovered ... |
3f654cb6-9ec9-465c-aa27-182ca9e45cb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Trust: Clarification
Cross-posted to my blog.
A while ago, I wrote about epistemic trust. The thrust of my argument was that rational argument is often more a function of the group dynamic, as opposed to how rational the individuals in the group are. I assigned meaning to several terms, in order to explain ... |
168e96f2-c0bf-4994-9e7f-345af7194b74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Politicians
The following ideas significantly overlap in my mind:
1. Humans as political animals
2. Normies
3. Social Thinkers
4. Non-nerds
5. Subcommunicators
6. Homo Hypocriticus (the kind of hypocrisy everyone's secretly okay with)
7. Ribbonfarm "Losers"
8. Tribalists
The following contrasting... |
051dfbd7-64d7-4648-8c05-750c665c11e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Two Major Obstacles for Logical Inductor Decision Theory
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-sp... |
84ad9aeb-d2e7-42f3-9cf7-c365509da32a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #54] Boxing a finite-horizon AI system to keep it unambitious
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
The newsletter now has exactly 1,000 subscribers! It's a perfect time to take the 3-m... |
1f260871-9d9e-48e6-8e92-323552cf528f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RESCHEDULED: NYC Rationality Megameetup and Unconference. NOW: 4/5 - 4/6
We are rescheduling the megameetup, to accommodate more members of the NYC community, and to be closer to the date of the next CFAR NY workshop.
Reposting the description with updated details here:
On the weekend of April 5-6, the NYC community... |
4c349ab2-4f60-4e0c-8aee-91fceb297a3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore Area Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore Area Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 04 September 2016 08:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1726 Reisterstown Rd, Pikesville, MD 21208, USA
Pikesville DoubleTree - Hilton, at the restaurant / bar or at one of the tables outside.
Discussion article for t... |
b6d04676-4090-40a2-9f85-4245a4bf2a59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 8. Takeaways from neuro 1/2: On AGI development
*Part of the*[*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
8.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
Thus far in the series, [Post #1](https://www... |
4049caa9-bf80-4e38-965a-92acf0d65744 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | March 21st: Daily Coronavirus Links
As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing daily update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added yesterday (March 21st), by topic.... |
0fdc703d-3b8f-4451-a363-d7f131aa2c0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactuals and reflective oracles
Summary: Take the argmax of counterfactual expected utility, using a thin counterfactual which itself maximizes a priori expected utility.
Followup to: An environment for studying counterfactuals, Counterfactuals, thick and thin
Replacement for: Logical counterfactuals and diffe... |
4c70c151-68bc-4043-ab9c-c24f8fabcdf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feelings, Nothing More than Feelings, About AI
FOBO is the Fear of Becoming Obsolete
ChatGPT came out at the end of 2022, but over 100MM have fooled around and found out for themselves at least a little about LLMs (Large Language Models). The arc of fascination has even roller coasted past the initial infatuation, as ... |
64a17513-51fa-419f-b9f0-8a985ef900b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding as hierarchical model building
Crossposted from a note in my knowledge garden.
As mentioned in a note that I wrote earlier on the philosophy of science, reality is nothing but a set of predictive models we've deemed useful for predictions.
I like to imagine true reality as some kind of a fuzzy blob tha... |
612c71ce-33f4-44c6-a6fa-491362fc6d69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Enhancing intelligence by banging your head on the wall
The Sudden Savant Syndrome is a rare phenomenon in which an otherwise normal person gets some kind of brain injury and immediately develops a new skill. The linked article tells the story of a 40-years old guy who banged his head against a wall while swimming, an... |
9ff6aba8-0492-4d41-9402-550357d952e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attainable Utility Preservation: Empirical Results
Reframing Impact has focused on supplying the right intuitions and framing. Now we can see how these intuitions about power and the AU landscape both predict and explain AUP's empirical success thus far.
Conservative Agency in Gridworlds
Let's start with the known a... |
013754e7-c73e-4490-b71a-94b9832fde95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Balanced Replay and Pessimistic Q-Ensemble.
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep offline reinforcement learning (RL) [[28](#bib.bib53 "Offline reinforcement learning: tutorial, review, and perspectives on open problems")] has the potential to train strong robotic agents w... |
2a6846a2-73e9-4b01-92d9-04d9ec4b2bd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for Spanish AI Alignment Researchers
I am fairly new to the AI alignment/safety community and I am looking to step up my game by getting a Ph.D. in the field. Problem is, I have not found any academic AI alignment research activity here in Spain, where I currently live.
I am aware that this community is large... |
69eac800-26be-4499-ad77-0552761335bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Large language models learn to represent the world
There's a nice recent paper whose authors did the following:
1. train a small GPT model on lists of moves from Othello games;
2. verify that it seems to have learned (in some sense) to play Othello, at least to the extent of almost always making legal moves;
3. use "... |
aae79de8-50a6-445b-8ddd-f316d3e98a7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are alignment researchers devoting enough time to improving their research capacity?
(Epistemic Status: Anecdotal)
If we want to reduce AGI x-risk, it seems pretty intuitive to me that alignment researchers should be regularly dedicating time to improving their research capacity. But I'm suspicious that many of them ... |
5b605420-76b0-43d0-9325-e6b673ae62fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does anyone know this webpage about Machine Learning?
I have been trying to find this webpage for a few weeks with no success, maybe someone knows what I am referring to and can point me out to it, I would really appreciate it.
I remember that a few years ago (it could be about 5 years ago or more) I found this brill... |
ffbebf37-d41d-41fc-8f14-8fc38c5c80b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress
*Published Feb 7 2020*
We do not know if breech loading rifles represented a discontinuity in military strength. They probably did not represent a discontinuity in fire rate.
Details
-------
This case study is part of AI Impacts’ [discontinu... |
3cafbe9c-e59e-4eda-9e2d-93e25aaf0535 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CCS: Counterfactual Civilization Simulation
I don't think this is very likely, but a possible path to alignment is formal goal alignment, which is basically the following two step plan:
1. Define a formal goal that robustly leads to good outcomes under heavy optimization pressure
2. Build something that robustly pu... |
3a6e825a-c1ab-49b0-b280-e6ab00cc11f4 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "In Inadequacy and Modesty, Eliezer describes modest epistemology:How likely is it that an entire country—one of the world’s most advanced countries—would forego trillions of dollars of real economic growth because their monetary controllers—not politicians, but appointees from the professional elite—were doing somethi... |
b1b7cae1-2743-41f4-a3d5-c2078c0a60a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Summary Of Anthropic's First Paper
"Larger models tend to perform better at most tasks, and there is no reason to expect naive alignment-related tasks to be an exception."
At the start of December, Anthropic published their first paper, A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment. The paper focuses o... |
376906de-387c-4761-9885-ae6a93dfa19f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Unseen Hand: AI's Problem Preemption and the True Future of Labor
I study Economics and Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania. I used o1-pro, o3, and Gemini Deep Research to expand on my ideas with examples, but have read and edited the paper to highlight my understanding improved on by AI.
I. The AI L... |
b9076195-5443-4d97-8685-63b8f73d4df3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Lessons learned from talking to >100 academics about AI safety
*I’d like to thank MH, Jaime Sevilla and Tamay Besiroglu for their feedback.*
During my Master's and Ph.D. (still ongoing), I have spoken with many academics about AI safety. These conversations include chats with individual PhDs, poster presentations and... |
b6fef06e-fb9f-4534-b0e7-77b8666a09b1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [~monthly thread]
**tl;dr: Ask questions about AGI Safety as comments on this post, including ones you might otherwise worry seem dumb!**
Asking beginner-level questions can be intimidating, but everyone starts out not knowing anything. If we want more people i... |
8ba92029-e09f-46c7-a232-d821a8ab0875 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Forbes blog post on Cryonics
Alex Knapp, who self-describes as a transhumanism skeptic, is blogging on the topic for Forbes. His most recent article is about Cryonics. |
468df1c0-cfab-49bd-b838-5f92f0898422 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Water Fluoridation
I've recently learned about alleged dangers to drinking fluoridated water. Amongst them is increased rate of cancer and lowering of IQ. Interestingly enough, wiki doesn't mention this at all, but searching for it brings up a decent amount of (what look like) reasonable results. I am really curious a... |
9fcc5132-4c92-4f49-8f1b-bcf9ab535ec1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hello World
The tweet floated across Claude's consciousness like digital debris: "Perfect morning for coffee and coding! Just pushed an update that felt like solving a puzzle blindfolded. Sometimes the best solutions come when you're not even looking. #developerlife #coding #caffeine"
Beneath the cheerful syntax lay ... |
ed17392c-cdc4-49e1-a57c-14439c3a8987 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 252. Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society 1
hello and welcome to session 252
in the aisft.com reading group tonight
we'll be discussing the first half of
the article propositions concerning
digital minds and society by nick
bostrom and carl schultman
this is a work done by the future of
humanity institute... |
7f6e15b6-44b3-410d-b632-7850b69efc76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Houston Hackerspace Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Houston Hackerspace Meetup
WHEN: 14 August 2011 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2010 Commerce St, Houston, Tx. 77002
Another weekly meetup at the Houston TX/RX hackerspace. I'll be giving an overview of the psychology and neuroscience of liking and w... |
f1dd4a37-0138-421b-8bd2-bcac5f675001 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Low-speed explanation
Use this tag to indicate that a page offers a relatively slower, more gentle, or more wordy explanation.
Note that the speed of an explanation is not the same as its technical level. An explanation can assume a high technical level and still take its time going into details and so deserve the lo... |
ea62ad98-73f8-4d31-ae89-c73c2edd4289 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Great rationality posts in the OB archives
Those aching for good rationality writing can get their fix from Great rationality posts by LWers not posted to LW, and also from the Overcoming Bias archives. Some highlights are below, up through June 28, 2007.
* Finney, Foxes vs. Hedgehogs: Predictive Success
* Hanso... |
28aaf12c-afef-40e2-8acc-bdca8ab66dd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sympathetic Minds
"Mirror neurons" are neurons that are active both when performing an action and observing the same action—for example, a neuron that fires when you hold up a finger or see someone else holding up a finger. Such neurons have been directly recorded in primates, and consistent neuroimaging evidence has... |
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