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6461692d-27eb-451b-826c-5b830e6e7613 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some algorithmic aspects of AGI
|
00d29e28-444d-4215-9da9-ed292dcfedb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI improving AI [MLAISU W01!]
Over 200 research ideas for mechanistic interpretability, ML improving ML and the dangers of aligned artificial intelligence. Welcome to 2023 and a happy New Year from us at the ML & AI Safety Updates!
Watch this week's MLAISU on YouTube or listen to it on Spotify.
Mechanistic inter... |
f203c3f5-c6d2-4095-8e82-cb911b4502b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is Eric Schmidt funding AI capabilities research by the US government?
[Politico article from Thursday December 22, 2022: "Ex-Google boss helps fund dozens of jobs in Biden’s administration"](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/22/eric-schmidt-joe-biden-administration-00074160)
1. Summary:
-----------
### In thre... |
77dc5339-c370-466f-bf17-51b4497b1fc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offense versus harm minimization
Imagine that one night, an alien prankster secretly implants electrodes into the brains of an entire country - let's say Britain. The next day, everyone in Britain discovers that pictures of salmon suddenly give them jolts of painful psychic distress. Every time they see a picture of a... |
558c1e8a-5bf5-4d42-9139-0d9597f9f091 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs stifle creativity, eliminate opportunities for serendipitous discovery and disrupt intergenerational transfer of wisdom
In this post, I’ve made no attempt to give an exhaustive presentation of the countless unintended consequences of widespread LLM use; rather, I’ve concentrated on three potential effects that ar... |
2e15c8c8-c3cb-4515-bac5-43b0a3d6612e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visualizing Neural networks, how to blame the bias
Background
This post is strongly based on this paper, which it calls the LRP algorithm, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.06321v1.pdf [1]
I later learned of the existence of this paper, which is even more similar to the ideas discussed here. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.0268... |
e27971d0-544e-4aa7-9c7b-512c31779f04 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3888
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Humans are biased and irrational (citation not needed) and so don't provide consistent answers to questions. To pick an extreme example, suppose the AI is hesitant between valuing Cake or Death , but can phrase a sufficiently seductive or manipulative quest... |
ca829cd8-090a-4001-b96e-9b0db88e217a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problems with instruction-following as an alignment target
We should probably try to understand the failure modes of the alignment schemes that AGI developers are most likely to attempt.
I still think Instruction-following AGI is easier and more likely than value aligned AGI. I’ve updated downward on the ease of IF a... |
2ac4f13b-e715-4193-9d5c-ea630ee47657 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarification of AI Reflection Problem
Consider an agent A, aware of its own embedding in some lawful universe, able to reason about itself and use that reasoning to inform action. By interacting with the world, A is able to modify itself or construct new agents, and using these abilities effectively is likely to be ... |
0b49a3d5-2cff-49a2-a777-9ac20db59cad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SolidGoldMagikarp III: Glitch token archaeology
The set of anomalous tokens which we found in mid-January are now being described as 'glitch tokens' and 'aberrant tokens' in online discussion, as well as (perhaps more playfully) 'forbidden tokens', 'unspeakable tokens' and 'cursed tokens'. We've mostly just called the... |
7464573a-6f5d-493e-92cf-b8cdbfc61b0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics
WHEN: 14 October 2012 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery Plaza, Washington, DC 20001, USA
This meetup is going to be the first in what I hope will be a series of ... |
96b72905-e57f-4a27-96b1-3777083f9f59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Exploring Metaculus’ community predictions
Disclaimer: this is not a project from [Arb Research](https://arbresearch.com/).
Summary
=======
* I really like [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/)!
* I have collected and analysed in this [Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Mxl8vGsZemmuKytV9zH1ft-iP2q4xwnx... |
dd47c457-5d60-4d64-be4b-ea34409a24a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci (Easy Mode): On The Construction Of Impossible Structures
This is a D&D.Sci scenario: a puzzle where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
Duke Arado’s obsession with physics-defying architecture has caused him to run into a small problem. His p... |
f678edf4-a16a-4198-8bcd-6bf5b4b6e436 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why don't organizations have a CREAMO?
That is, a Chief Risk Evaluation And Mitigation Officer.
A bad handle on risk seems to be pervasive even in good organizations, both for- and non-profit. The unfolding FTX debacle shows that even Rationality-inspired orgs suck at risk assessment as much as any other place. If yo... |
fe931c38-ee5b-4525-bf12-3bb9efe9dba9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Supplementing memory with experience sampling
If you asked me how happy I've been, I'd think back over my recent life and synthesize my memories into a judgement. Since I'm the one experiencing my life you would think this would be accurate, but our memories aren't fair. For example, people who had their hand in 57° w... |
12046e79-100b-4f0f-b233-28c109275bcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value/Utility: A History
[ I am writing this post because, while many people on LessWrong know something about the history of value and utility, it's vanishingly rare that someone is confident enough that they understand the whole thing, that they feel they can speak authoritatively about what these concepts 'really m... |
6fad2cb1-508b-4fc4-b6a7-25169e4e788c | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3709
Previously , we defined a setting called "Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning" (DIRL) in which the agent can delegate actions to an "advisor" and the reward is only visible to the advisor as well. We proved a sublinear regret bound (converted to traditional normalization in online learning, the boun... |
952661cf-0236-4836-845a-a17f3f517b55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Safe Option-Critic: Learning Safety in the Option-Critic Architecture
1. Introduction
----------------
Safety in Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be viewed from many perspectives. Traditionally, introducing some form of risk-awareness in AI systems has been a prime way of defining safety in the machines. More recen... |
d826d71b-b525-4e96-ba2e-e80e390f8b98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Toronto: Our guest: Cat Lavigne from the Center for Applied Rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Toronto: Our guest: Cat Lavigne from the Center for Applied Rationality
WHEN: 09 April 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 20 Edward Street, Toronto, ON
Sorry, new location again! We're at the World's Big... |
86a435cf-743f-45c5-aba8-ce0430bfa8b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bets and updating
Suppose the US presidential election is tomorrow. You currently assign a probability of 50% to each outcome. (We are ignoring the small possibility that neither of the main party candidates will win).
A man approaches you, and offers you a bet of $10, at 2-1 odds. In other words, if candidate one wi... |
844d6897-6b95-458e-91d7-92537c8a49b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Distributional Generalization: A New Kind of Generalization
1 Introduction
---------------
In this paper we introduce a new notion of generalization,
which sheds light on the behavior of standard classification methods.
We motivate this notion via extended examples
in Section [1.3](#S1.SS3 "1.3 Motivating Examples ... |
4f6fbb06-bd3e-4fba-b2a7-98da747167ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #73]: Detecting catastrophic failures by learning how agents tend to break
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZ... |
dfd4945c-20d8-46dd-9c82-b623d559da7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings
Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors alone.
Overview
In the vein of What 2026 Looks Like and AI Time... |
550d67e8-6d2f-4afc-a44d-b87362d9bc8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How bad would AI progress need to be for us to think general technological progress is also bad?
It is widely believed in the EA community that AI progress is acutely harmful by substantially increasing X-risks. This has led to a growing priority on pushing against work advancing AI capabilities.[1]
On the other hand... |
bf4f7807-f2b5-4f58-95b0-6f1b94ba44c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The map of nanotech global catastrophic risks
Nanotech seems to be smaller risk than AI or biotech, but it advanced form has many ways of omnicide. Nanotech will be probably created after strong biotech, but short before strong AI (or by AI), so the period of vulnerability is rather short. Anyway nanotech has differen... |
e24535d9-99fa-4935-b94c-83b825be62cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Interpreting Multimodal Video Transformers Using Brain Recordings
This is a linkpost for https://openreview.net/forum?id=p-vL3rmYoqh.
TL;DR: We show that fine-tuning on the vision-language task does not improve the alignment in brain regions that are thought to support the integration of multimodal inform... |
a2f389dd-74ed-4aec-a982-bfc377af58a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NYT: The Surprising Thing A.I. Engineers Will Tell You if You Let Them
NYT Opinion article by Ezra Klein on AI-regulations. Ezra has been writing quite a lot on AI recently. Thought people might be interested in discussing them here. |
618e4917-01f7-4843-a4d3-daee24bcff26 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Seeking Interns/RAs for Mechanistic Interpretability Projects
**UPDATE:** The deadline for applying for this is 11:59pm PT Sat 27 Aug. I'll be selecting candidates following a 2 week (paid) work trial, 10hr/week starting Sept 12 where participants pick a concrete research idea and try to make progress on it.
---
H... |
655b92e9-be57-49c1-968c-db2beccdf190 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Practical Value of Flawed Models: A Response to titotal’s AI 2027 Critique
Crossposted from my Substack.
@titotal recently posted an in-depth critique of AI 2027. I'm a fan of his work, and this post was, as expected, phenomenal*.
Much of the critique targets the unjustified weirdness of the superexponential ti... |
712f584c-f32c-4de3-adb0-077c053095e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Cooking for LessWrongers
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Cooking for LessWrongers
WHEN: 22 August 2014 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Bruce Hall, 40 Daley Road, Acton, ACT, 0200
Note the change in location
We will introduce the idea of cooking as a set of easy templates or methods, whic... |
aa2afeef-745b-435a-9ea5-a9ddbd2378e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What can we learn from freemasonry?
I recently stumbled over the relationship between freemasons and networks of social and economic influence (e.g. nobility).
I wondered what could be learned from a society which exists so long and has ideals that are not that far away from the LW goal of refining human rationality.... |
fd35748c-5600-4781-a318-112e82a91e49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 7/28/22: Ruining It For Everyone
There are lots of ways to try and ruin it for everyone. Covid restrictions that make no sense are a proven successful strategy for this, demanding the Doing of More. Monkeypox offers exciting additional ruining potential.
The surprise winner, however, is an old Alzheimer’s paper... |
1f34e1ef-074d-4075-aee5-fb1194b30df9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Socialising in the Sun, London 13/04
Discussion article for the meetup : Socialising in the Sun, London 13/04
WHEN: 13 April 2014 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Newman's Row, London WC2A 3TL
We are having another Social Meetup on Sunday at 2 PM, this time outdoors [weather permitting].
The meetup will take plac... |
1aeeddbf-229c-4faa-9958-8a5bb49d334b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will 2023 be the last year you can write short stories and receive most of the intellectual credit for writing them?
I've been worldbuilding a unique setting in my head and on paper for maybe a year now, and for quite a bit longer than that I have wanted to start publishing fiction. I've never "found the time" to act ... |
67e88134-8578-4e89-bf9a-a33e9f728a5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Seeking a Shortening of the Way
"The most instructive experiences are those of everyday life." - Friedrich Nietzsche
What is it that the readers of lesswrong are looking for? One claim that's been repeated frequently is that we're looking for rationality tricks, shortcuts and clever methods for being rational. ... |
256ebd2e-8e69-4a94-b961-64386365447f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Endo-, Dia-, Para-, and Ecto-systemic novelty
*[Metadata: crossposted from <https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/01/endo-dia-para-and-ecto-systemic-novelty.html>. First completed January 10, 2023. This essay is more like research notes than exposition, so context may be missing, the use of terms may change across essays, ... |
914819f9-9b8d-41dc-9f7e-00610531a1b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections: Bureaucratic Hell
C.S. Lewis’s best-known books is a fictional book called The Screwtape Letters. It's a series of letters, from a senior devil to his nephew on how to tempt an ordinary human. The following are some excerpts from the same book, which explain why C.S. Lewis chose beaurcracy as a symbol for... |
aa7bbc4a-6ea5-4c5f-9654-b898225ebb80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Where is human level on text prediction? (GPTs task)
I look at graphs like these (From the GPT-3 paper), and I wonder where human-level is:
Gwern seems to [have the answer here](https://www.gwern.net/news... |
a5c54c7c-e7f8-43bb-ab65-607b771d450f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would you govern Mars?
Summary: Good government is hard. Given the chance, how would you improve it? Below you will find one idea I like, to hopefully get a fruitful discussion started.
I started writing this in February, just as the Pandemic appeared on the horizon, and titled it "How would you govern Mars", hop... |
fdd3c25c-5a69-47b3-9ede-693cc76d4a57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What is the best source to explain short AI timelines to a skeptical person?
The person in question does not have a ML background. |
f4c21188-ce93-499a-b1e7-40f8ada72330 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
*Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023*
Summary
-------
This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in [The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/), analyses the predictions on ‘Narr... |
78f2965d-c3ff-42b2-8332-7397f7b6705b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid Canada Jan25: low & slow
🇨🇦 People liked my Canada comment on Zvi's post on Jan 14th, so here's another update as a top-level post. I thought I wouldn't have much to say but apparently I wrote some stuff!
(I want to underscore that this is a rambly summary from someone who does not have the same thorough rese... |
135678d5-6c4c-49fc-9b25-1cef200d44e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ilya: The AI scientist shaping the world
Recently (2 Nov), The Guardian posted what I thought was an extremely well-made video with Ilya's thoughts. I didn't think to repost it at the time but given the OpenAI developments over the last couple of days, and the complete Twitter and media meltdown surrounding that, I th... |
ae370b2f-aaf1-4416-8b12-cb4de1578fbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Voting Results for the 2022 Review
The 5th Annual LessWrong Review has come to a close!
Review Facts
There were 5330 posts published in 2022.
Here's how many posts passed through the different review phases.
PhaseNo. of postsEligibilityNominations Phase579Any 2022 post could be given preliminary votesReview Phase... |
6c65ea50-994b-4826-b042-402cb10e355e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infinite tower of meta-probability
Suppose that I have a coin with probability of heads p. I certainly know that p is fixed and does not change as I toss the coin. I would like to express my degree of belief in p and then update it as I toss the coin.
Using a constant pdf to model my initial belief, the problem becom... |
d9529475-d2e2-422a-8b40-e4010e6b698c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Categorizing Love: How having more words for love might make it less scary
When discussing the idea of loving more than just our spouses and families, the phrase "love thy neighbor" often comes to mind. A quote I tend to prefer was said by Thomas Aquinas: "The person who truly understands love could love anyone". He b... |
feff894e-4bb9-4ff8-af25-25982dfc61d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Lattice: Exercises
Try these exercises to test your knowledge of lattices.
## Distributivity
Does the lattice meet operator distribute over joins? In other words, for all lattices $L$ and all $p, q, r \in L$, is it necessarily true that $p \wedge (q \vee r) = (p \wedge q) \vee (p \wedge r)$? Prove your answer.
%%hi... |
4915cf36-8c10-48b3-a150-ba851c69b694 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Missing the Trees for the Forest
Politics is the mind-killer. A while back, I gave an example: the government's request that Kelloggs [EDIT: General Mills, thanks CronoDAS] top making false claims about Cheerios. By the time the right-wing and left-wing blogospheres had finished with it, this became everything from p... |
c5ffcdbb-6fa8-4048-a2ab-def3fb6a305c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frontier AI Labs: the Call Option to AGI
This is a cross post from my Substack, East Wind.
Since the launch of ChatGPT less than three years ago, the pace of AI development has only accelerated. Over the past six months, the intensity of research, funding, and product announcements has seemingly gone parabolic. OpenA... |
020f0850-dff0-4537-94b5-146a880239e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could the simulation argument also apply to dreams?
> We know that a dream can be real, but who ever thought that reality could be a dream? We exist, of course, but how, in what way? As we believe, as flesh-and-blood human beings, or are we simply parts of someone's feverish, complicated nightmare?
>
> * Charles Bea... |
b8fd88ee-5d83-48fd-b7ef-de9082620265 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents, Simulators and Interpretability
We have already spoken about the differences between tools, agents and simulators and the differences in their safety properties. Given the practical difference between them, it would be nice to predict which properties an AI system has. One way to do this is to consider the pro... |
8c74a1d9-b00a-487b-ba9c-7e8b3acc6a08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Mixed-Strategy Ratifiability Implies CDT=EDT
*([Cross-posted from IAFF](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1690).)*
I provide conditions under which CDT=EDT in Bayes-net causal models.
[Previously](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1629), I discussed conditions under which LICDT=LIEDT. That case was fairly dif... |
f30a75ed-516f-405e-8170-a37b9864f541 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Antiantinatalism
Cross posted from Putanumonit.com
----------------------------------------
Does life suck? I think it does, somewhat. Others would say it sucks even worse than that. David Benatar thinks that life sucks so profoundly that bestowing it on anyone, like your child, is a grave crime. The antinatalist ph... |
96db9663-03b7-4044-b7c3-622a045ad2d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling
The only times gross world product appears to have doubled in *n* years without having doubled previously in 4*n* years were between 4,000 BC and 3,000 BC, and most likely between 10,000 BC and 4,000 BC.
Details
-------
### Background
A key open que... |
df052bcf-e245-48bc-97b3-0d8aadc2bf06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preface to a Proposal for a New Mode of Inquiry
Summary: The problem of AI has turned out to be a lot harder than was originally thought. One hypothesis is that the obstacle is not a shortcoming of mathematics or theory, but limitations in the philosophy of science. This article is a preview of a series of posts that ... |
e54841b2-25ba-4dba-bdfc-b2224e595ca0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Applications open for AI Safety Fundamentals: Governance Course
[**Apply**](https://apply.aisafetyfundamentals.com/governance?prefill_%5Ba%5Dsource=EA%20Forum%20launch%20post&utm_campaign=launch&utm_source=eaforum) **to participate or facilitate, before 25th June 2023**.
We are excited to support participants who are... |
3d1ec4be-4592-43c7-bddc-f18e78fa5d0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misspecification in Inverse Reinforcement Learning - Part II
In this post, I will provide a summary of the paper Quantifying the Sensitivity of Inverse Reinforcement Learning to Misspecification, and explain some of its results. I will assume basic familiarity with reinforcement learning. This is the fifth post in the... |
055fc9af-a430-4405-b2b6-deeab3351da0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Long-Term Trends in the Public Perception of Artificial Intelligence
Introduction
------------
>
> Artificial intelligence will spur innovation and create opportunities, both for individuals and entrepreneurial companies, just as the Internet has led to new businesses like Google and new forms of communication li... |
647803ec-1f7b-48ff-b710-9a3feb5d2b2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yudkowsky on The Trajectory podcast
Edit: TLDR: EY focuses on the clearest and IMO most important part of his argument:
* Before building an entity smarter than you, you should probably be really sure its goals align with yours.
* Humans are historically really bad at being really sure of anything nontrivial on th... |
adffb4d0-9cbc-4695-a6ee-d507ab94fe36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attention! Financial scam targeting Less Wrong users
Recently, multiple suspicious user accounts were created on Less Wrong. These accounts don't post any content in the forum. Instead, they are used only to send private messages to the existing users.
Many users have received a copy of the same message, but differen... |
45621af8-1b91-443d-bd36-ff51900e9719 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some conditional independence (Bayes Network) exercises from ai-class.com
If you'd like to see some visual representations of conditional independence is neither necessary or sufficient for independence, confounding causes, explaining away, etc. you should be able to view these videos from ai-class.com.
Working the e... |
c84fd337-4447-4a01-ad7b-bd646c25bdb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Very Mathematical Explanation of Derivatives
This post is meant for readers familiar with algebra and derivatives, but want to deepen their understanding and/or need a refresh.
Linear functions
Let's start with a family of very basic functions: the linear functions, expressed as f(x)=ax+b. You might remember its d... |
13d43265-4d67-43e2-a2a2-bc404539b306 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defaulting to not noticing the meetup list
I just registered that I'm not looking at the meetup list to see whether there's anything in my area-- the letters are too small and faint.
Are other people skimming past the meetup list, too?
If it's a general problem, I recommend bolding the city names. |
bd346431-0040-4117-82a5-644bf415e44d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Common fallacies in probability (when numbers aren't used)
Too many people attempt to use logic when they should be using probabilities - in fact, when they are using probabilities, but don't mention it. Here are some of the major fallacies caused by misusing logic and probabilities this way:
1. "It's not cer... |
23b2b277-aa3f-4dbe-b816-8276ffda7ed9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing myself: Henry Lieberman, MIT CSAIL, whycantwe.org
I'm Henry Lieberman, Research Scientist at the MIT Computer Science and AI Lab. I'm interested in long-term thinking about the future of humanity, technology and society, and have developed some new ideas, together with my colleague Christopher Fry, about h... |
100ba000-247e-4768-8804-92677d80a9a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The next decades might be wild
I’d like to thank Simon Grimm and Tamay Besiroglu for feedback and discussions.
Update (early April 2023): I now think the timelines in this post are too long and expect the world to get crazy faster than described here. For example, I expect many of the things suggested for 2030-2040 t... |
944bc698-3ce6-4f95-a8e8-e4b0d1131ea4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | “Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?
In casual conversations about the future of AI - particularly among people who don’t go in for [wild](https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/), sci-fi stuff - there seems to be a lot of attention give... |
c464bedd-8f9a-4b05-aca1-22c035160887 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empirical vs. Mathematical Joints of Nature
We (Alex and Elizabeth) are thinking about doing this project where we figure out how paradigm formation happened in chaos theory. Alex has also been thinking about paradigm formation for agent foundations (which people often talk about as being pre-paradigmatic). These are ... |
ad8b42a6-4faa-4017-a4a0-9d1e9a07c3a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Money Circulation in Games
I recently heard that they regulate the amount of money circulating in certain MMO games, which seems to me like a far fetched thing. Let us assume that you are a player in a game where you can kill monsters and gold is the currency. Each monster drops a set amount of gold each time you kill... |
a3216ae1-1f12-40fb-a133-2f088b3074db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lifehack Ideas December 2014
> Life hacking refers to any trick, shortcut, skill, or novelty method that increases productivity and efficiency, in all walks of life.
— Wikipedia
This thread is for posting any promising or interesting ideas for lifehacks you've come up with or heard of. If you've implemented your... |
32b67486-0d61-454c-a997-74fa98d5d3b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Contrastive Code Representation Learning.
1 Introduction
---------------
Programmers increasingly rely on machine-aided programming tools such as automated refactoring and autocompletion refactoring\_kim2012field.
However, the wide diversity of programs encountered in practice limits the generalization of handmade ... |
a457bcf0-3607-4b2d-9d24-3c7f8bb70b18 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Won't humans be able to beat an unaligned AI since we have a huge advantage in numbers?
Humans likely won’t have an advantage in effective numbers, for three main reasons:
1. The AI will likely work much more quickly than humans can (transistors are millions of times faster than neurons).
1. The AI might create copi... |
922fd9f0-b8e7-4563-8474-f9aa18bbcd99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Effective Altruist Profiles
We’re excited to announce EA Profiles, a new community platform for effective altruists. There are already hundreds of profiles for you to browse from members of the community such as Peter Singer and Jeff Kaufman, full of interesting information like people’s favoured causes an... |
584762d8-062b-4def-847b-24e1f32345d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Boston / Cambridge - The future of life: a cosmic perspective (Max Tegmark), Dec 1
Discussion article for the meetup : Boston / Cambridge - The future of life: a cosmic perspective (Max Tegmark), Dec 1
WHEN: 01 December 2013 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Citadel, 98 Elm St, Apt 1, Somerville, MA
Max Tegmark wi... |
35c53d6d-27b9-4605-922e-b49cdea2a850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confession Thread: Mistakes as an aspiring rationalist
We looked at the cloudy night sky and thought it would be interesting to share the ways in which, in the past, we made mistakes we would have been able to overcome, if only we had been stronger as rationalists. The experience felt valuable and humbling. So why not... |
e461542e-2fde-43fe-9ae0-cc1b0034a033 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Alignment Research Agenda: Massive Multiplayer Organism Oversight
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/04/new-alignment-research-agenda-massive.html.]
When there's an AGI that's smarter than a human, how will we make sure it's not trying to kill us? The answer, in outline, is clear: we wil... |
d48b095f-f292-4bf8-bc3f-e9df7e218049 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The Wicked Problem Experience
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
I’ve spent a lot of my career working on [wicked problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem): problems that are vaguely defined, where there’s no clear goal for exactly what I’m trying to do ... |
bdd3cdbb-89d0-48af-955b-e882320fd046 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Slow corporations as an intuition pump for AI R&D automation
How much should we expect AI progress to speed up after fully automating AI R&D? This post presents an intuition pump for reasoning about the level of acceleration by talking about different hypothetical companies with different labor forces, amounts of seri... |
a3988c77-e2fc-44ae-a066-6a997b91a495 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on the Psychology of Power
Luke/SI asked me to look into what the academic literature might have to say about people in positions of power. This is a summary of some of the recent psychology results.
The powerful or elite are: fast-planning abstract thinkers who take action (1) in order to pursue single/minimal... |
04969f6a-886c-4fd0-95a4-031b04102706 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Live in an Era of Unprecedented World Peace
[Edit: This data seems to underestimate the violent death tolls in state societies. I think the general thesis is still valid but the data I used in this article should be taken very skeptically.]
Beside not dying of infectious disease my favorite thing about living in t... |
b26eff9d-6fa2-489d-a946-04f4a8d93ff2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Guide to Forecasting AI Science Capabilities
The following contains resources that I (Eleni) curated to help the AI Science team of AI Safety Camp 2023 prepare for the second half of the project, i.e., forecasting science capabilities. Suggestions for improvement of this guide are welcome.
Key points and re... |
f401f081-6f85-4eb9-83f7-1a6778ca90d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory but also Ghosts
Spoiler Warning: The Sixth Sense (1999) is a good movie. Watch it before reading this.
A much smaller eva once heard of Descartes' Cogito ergo sum as being the pinnacle of skepticism, and disagreed. "Why couldn't I doubt that? Maybe I just think 'I think' → 'I am' and actually it do... |
b25bd626-42ee-49ce-9625-11cd2bef7193 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Draft report on AI timelines
Hi all, I've been working on some AI forecasting research and have prepared a draft report on timelines to transformative AI. I would love feedback from this community, so I've made the report viewable in a Google Drive folder here.
With that said, most of my focus so far has been on the ... |
a4e77fa0-bef9-407c-a741-d8f7cef5568d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rohin Shah on reasons for AI optimism
Rohin Shah
I along with several AI Impacts researchers recently talked to talked to Rohin Shah about why he is relatively optimistic about AI systems being developed safely. Rohin Shah is a 5th year PhD student at the Center for Human-Compatible AI (CHAI) at Berkeley, and a promin... |
7682c133-848d-45f3-a61f-9e7dd8a25984 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactual self-defense
Let's imagine these following dialogues between Omega and an agent implementing TDT. Usual standard assumptions on Omega applies: the agent knows Omega is real, trustworthy and reliable, and Omega knows that the agent knows that, and the agent knows that Omega knows that the agent knows, et... |
43fc5e95-098e-4bdf-86b1-5112124d0f08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Acausal trade: conclusion: theory vs practice
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap... |
49a46408-fd35-4d96-871a-684887ee1e16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Roger Williams (Author of Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect) on Singularity
This is Roger's article on Singularity issues, connecting his MOPI novel to how things might/should happen.
http://localroger.com/prime-intellect/mopising.html
(Roger is clearly aware of SIAI ideas and has referenced Eliezer in some of his po... |
6ae086f5-3585-4ead-b8c9-85bdfcf6b652 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High level climate intervention considerations
I’ve lately helped Giving What We Can extend their charity evaluation to climate change mitigation charities. This is a less abridged draft of a more polished post up on their blog.
Suppose you wanted to prevent climate change. What methods would get you the most emissio... |
32b1ba93-9692-4771-957f-f6687b04b741 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Reinforcement Learning 5: Function Approximation and Deep Reinforcement Learning
so I've alluded to the topic of today's
lecture quite a bit already in earlier
lectures this is quite natural as well
because we're doing both these parts of
the course for one part is focusing on
deep learning and the other part is
focus... |
b446836d-710c-4a78-a24f-a1eb087476ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #91]: Concepts, implementations, problems, and a benchmark for impact measurement
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look t... |
03d13960-ce9f-4d0a-969f-45f18475e04b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | I'm Interviewing Kat Woods, EA Powerhouse. What Should I Ask?
### **If You've Never Heard of Kat Woods (But Really, Who in EA Hasn't?), Here's a List of Projects She Has Cofounded:**
- [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/), an incubator that has launched 18 Charities so far
-Charity... |
3ae76a9c-d25c-4a84-9b5d-9ee99151b601 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polling Thread - Tutorial
After some hiatus another installment of the Polling Thread.
This is your chance to ask your multiple choice question you always wanted to throw in. Get qualified numeric feedback to your comments. Post fun polls.
Additionally this is your chance to learn to write polls. This installment is... |
4091ca86-b7d0-4853-b3da-c7eb0f7c26bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #119: Goodbye AISI?
AISI is being rebranded highly non-confusingly as CAISI. Is it the end of AISI and a huge disaster, or a tactical renaming to calm certain people down? Hard to tell. It could go either way. Sometimes you need to target the people who call things ‘big beautiful bill,’ and hey, the bill in questio... |
86363af3-12ca-4918-95c1-d4592801c5de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the coronavirus the most important thing to be focusing on right now?
LessWrong has been and is planning to devote a significant amount of attention to the coronavirus. But is that what we should be focused on? Is it more important than things like existential risk reduction and malaria treatments? |
02c9539f-b768-42c3-9978-9dc78c57e7d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | (Ir)rationality of Pascal's wager
During the last few weeks I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about ,,Pascalian” themes, like the paradoxes generated by introducing infinities in ethics or decision theory. In this post I want to focus on Pascal’s wager (Hajek, 2018), and why it is (ir)rational to accept it.
Firstly, ... |
ef2723c0-1743-46e1-81fb-35dbacee4122 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races
All else being equal, arms races are a waste of resources and often an example of the defection equilibrium in the [prisoner’s dilemma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma). However, in some cases, such capacity races may actually be the globally optimal s... |
0dafc483-0d82-41dd-a48e-d7d71e1698e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hacker-AI and Digital Ghosts – Pre-AGI
Software vulnerabilities are mainly found by chance. We all know hacking is labor-intensive. This will invite and thrive the use of AI. It is assumed that it is just a matter of time until attackers create tools with advanced “Hacker-AI” to accelerate the detection and understand... |
33d48121-e208-4b55-83bb-8505bce578e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In search of benevolence (or: what should you get Clippy for Christmas?)
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)
Suppose that you aspire to promote the welfare of others in a roughly impartial way, at least in some parts of your life. This post examines a dilemma that such an aspiration creates, especially given subject... |
19ffa2ad-157b-4546-9265-138923ce3010 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Likely Is Cryonics To Work?
If an American signs up for cryonics and pays their ~$300/year, what are their odds of being revived? Talking to people at LessWrong meetups I've heard estimates of 1 in 2. My friend George Dahl, whose opinion I respect a lot, guesses "less than 1 in 10^6". Niether has given me reasons... |
eabf3294-61ef-4ad7-8d58-40f3cbab5abf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playing with Aerial Photos
Flying in a window seat offers opportunities for serendipitous aerial photography. You don't get to choose what is going to be within view of the window, but when there's something interesting it can be fun to try and get a good picture. There are a few I've taken that I like:
Our neighborh... |
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