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ca051322-80af-4e8b-b656-2519a4ea96ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I’m no longer sure that I buy dutch book arguments and this makes me skeptical of the "utility function" abstraction
[Epistemic status: half-baked, elucidating an intuition. Possibly what I’m saying here is just wrong, and someone will helpfully explain why.]
Thesis: I now think that utility functions might be a bad ... |
f01c1701-639b-492b-8766-83e6cc1fa1d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, May 16-31, 2012
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here. |
011de5db-c3fa-488a-9875-102173d92184 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Problem With The Current State of AGI Definitions
*The following includes a fictionalized account of a conversation had with professor* [*Viliam Lisý*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/viliam-lis%C3%BD-03801121/) *at* [*EAGx Prague*](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxprague-2022/)*, with most of the details just plai... |
c0ee0168-84af-4280-a299-29f193863735 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Multidisciplinary Approach to Alignment (MATA) and Archetypal Transfer Learning (ATL)
### **Abstract**
Multidisciplinary Approach to Alignment (MATA) and Archetypal Transfer Learning (ATL) proposes a novel approach to the AI alignment problem by integrating perspectives from multiple fields and challenging the con... |
64ff15b4-8193-4229-ae50-d5a5c2a86b3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unbundling Humans, or, Unbundling Human Creation.
“There are two ways to make money in business: You can unbundle, or you can bundle.” – Jim Barksdale, cofounder of Netscape
As frameworks for identifying opportunities in startupland go, unbundling / (re)bundling is amongst the most seminal ones out there.
Here is a... |
a8936271-6dfc-4be0-987b-ba8f6b89d6a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Find someone to talk to thread
Many LessWrong users are depressed. On the most recent survey, 18.2% of respondents had been formally diagnosed with depression, and a further 25.5% self-diagnosed with depression. That adds up to nearly half of the LessWrong userbase.
One common treatment for depression is talk therapy... |
6feef977-5c70-4e8a-85f1-4a037685eafb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What’s good about haikus?
Fiction often asks its readers to get through a whole list of evocative scenery to imagine before telling them anything about the situation that might induce an interest in what the fields and the flies looked like, or what color stuff was. I assume that this is fun if you are somehow more so... |
2a325258-e5b9-456d-982d-310597a8deab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lack of Social Grace Is an Epistemic Virtue
Someone once told me that they thought I acted like refusing to employ the bare minimum of social grace was a virtue, and that this was bad. (I'm paraphrasing; they actually used a different word that starts with b.)
I definitely don't want to say that lack of social grace ... |
6a77abc9-881f-4853-84d7-a6d3ab3c3696 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1590
Context: This post is my attempt to make sense of Ryan Greenblatt's research agenda, as of April 2022. I understand Ryan to be heavily inspired by Paul Christiano, and Paul left some comments on early versions of these notes. Two separate things I was hoping to do, that I would have liked to factor into t... |
16e92270-863b-4a1d-8d01-b646fd924ca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ekman Training - Reviews and/or Testing
I'm considering taking Ekman's microexpressions training because it's cheap in both time and money. Has anyone here taken it? Did it work for you? How do you know?
The course does seem to come with tests included (both before and after), but if anyone has any ideas for some ... |
c7772cbe-c605-4afb-b29e-a99b742a686d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ottawa LessWrong Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa LessWrong Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 10 August 2011 07:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Heart and Crown, 347 Preston Street, Ottawa ON
To switch things up, we'll try a new night and venue.
We'll be at the Heart & Crown Pub on Preston Street, probably... |
49e77a4a-5f70-4646-b3f3-ec78ddef0ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Automating reasoning about the future at Ought
Ought’s mission is to automate and scale open-ended reasoning. Since wrapping up factored evaluation experiments at the end of 2019, Ought has built Elicit to automate the open-ended reasoning involved in judgmental forecasting.
Today, Elicit helps forecasters build dist... |
0a24befe-99a4-4fab-a908-0a522dc5e545 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Overview of Artificial General Intelligence Safety Research Agendas | Rohin Shah
[Music]
so yeah so AGI safety what are people
doing about it well one thing I think
that you you can like look at this you
like got to do some AGI safety and like
one perspective you might get is like
AGI what what is this AGI thing like ... |
144cad25-88a1-46a4-8afb-7ba22ecf4f78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality tip: Predict your comment karma
For the last few months I've taken up the habit of explicitly predicting how much karma I'll get for each of my contributions on LW. I picked up the habit of doing so for Main posts back in the Visiting Fellows program, but I've found that doing it for comments is way more i... |
85f22fcc-b55f-4ae3-ad41-814b32f65c30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A method for fair bargaining over odds in 2 player bets!
Alice and Bob are talking about the odds of some event E. Alice's odd's of E are 55% and Bob's are 90%. It becomes clear to them that they have different odds, and being good (and competitive) rationalists they decide to make a bet.
Essentially, bet constructio... |
e31a8834-fb01-4c2b-905b-848bfb912c83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | this Website uses Bayesian networks to evaluate claims - RootClaim
I found out this website, RootClaim, about a year and a half ago (a bit after it was founded), much before finding LW. that's how i found out about Bayesian probability, and i remember getting crazy at the potential of it :)
So i now thought "surly so... |
bed1e3e6-ec69-40fd-96b3-ec63e1fc0f58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moving on from Cognito Mentoring
Back in December 2013, Jonah Sinick and I launched Cognito Mentoring, an advising service for intellectually curious students. Our goal was to improve the quality of learning, productivity, and life choices of the student population at large, and we chose to focus on intellectually cur... |
0a1b1a60-cadd-483d-950a-c0a455875406 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | [Week 7] LP Announcement by OpenAI
Our mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity, primarily by attempting to build safe AGI and share the benefits with the world.
We’ve [experienced](https://openai.com/blog/openai-five/) [firsthand](https://openai.com/blog/better-languag... |
2b559822-eb7c-4027-98ab-a715ca242284 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TAI Safety Bibliographic Database
Authors: Jess Riedel and Angelica Deibel
Cross-posted to EA Forum
In this post we present the first public version of our bibliographic database of research on the safety of transformative artificial intelligence (TAI). The primary motivations for assembling this database were to:
... |
befd5248-3077-4ef7-b729-f512d2b5c1b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Response to Tyler Cowen’s Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. On this we can all agree.
Tyler Cowen offers a post worth reading in full in which he outlines his thinking about AI and what is likely to happen in the future. I see this as ess... |
09605491-4c62-44cf-828f-2f9dd8c3abaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Reasons for Using Anki
Introduction
In some circles, having an Anki habit seems to hold similar weight to clichés like "you should meditate", "you should eat healthy", or "you should work out". There's a sense that "doing Anki is good", despite most people in the circles not actually using memory systems.
I've bee... |
c970fd90-eb10-45a8-81b8-43e950270667 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 10 Fun Questions for LessWrongers
Here are 10 fun questions for LWers.
Questions like "how much karma makes a post worth reading" and "do emotions mostly help or hinder you in pursuing your goals".
All multiple choice / dropdown selection (bar an optional one).
I'll publish the results in a few days.
I've filled i... |
a5c7d8d2-e948-4ea5-8c06-9ed647b76db4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The easy goal inference problem is still hard
*Posted as part of the AI Alignment Forum sequence on [Value Learning](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/4dHMdK5TLN6xcqtyc).*
> **Rohin’s note:** In this post (original [here)](https://ai-alignment.com/the-easy-goal-inference-problem-is-still-hard-fad030e0a876), Paul Chri... |
ccbfe1c2-c6ac-47e0-afa1-0a464cc48b0a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Goal-directedness: relativising complexity
*This is the fourth post in my Effective-Altruism-funded project aiming to deconfuse goal-directedness. Comments are welcomed. All opinions expressed are my own, and do not reflect the attitudes of any member of the body sponsoring me. The funding has come to an end, but I ex... |
ecb02b63-3284-4ba7-88c0-189306d27ad1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting and Steering Features in Images
We trained a SAE to find sparse features in image embeddings. We found many meaningful, interpretable, and steerable features. We find that steering image diffusion works surprisingly well and yields predictable and high-quality generations.
You can see the feature library... |
472ccc30-f076-4d9f-b1e4-e34abfbcc64d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Me or We?
Martial arts can be a good training to ensure your personal security, if you assume the worst about your tools and environment. If you expect to find yourself unarmed in a dark alley, or fighting hand to hand in a war, it makes sense. But most people do a lot better at ensuring their personal secu... |
09d112c6-0665-4ff1-8f3b-a6fbbec664a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 28 social psychology studies from *Experiments With People* (Frey & Gregg, 2017)
I'm reading a very informative and fun book about human social psychology, Experiments With People (2nd ed, 2018).
> ... 28 social psychological experiments that have significantly advanced our understanding of human social thinking and ... |
99974fac-8308-4e6e-8310-fe90774579ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Likelihood Ratio and the Problem of Evil
I'm posting this here because I want to see if my reasoning is incorrect.
Generally, when people talk about the problem of evil, the underlying problem is actually one of indifference. Given that God exists, he doesn't seem to care some (most) of the time bad things happen... |
e631c15b-e35d-43e1-afb0-5fbd4af3f71f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong and Rationality ebooks via Amazon
After just spending some time browsing free nonficton kindle ebooks on Amazon, it occurred to me that it might be a good idea for SIAI/LW to publish for free download through Amazon some introductory LW essays and other useful introductory works like Twelve Virtues of Ration... |
8fa2c932-7f2c-4247-b202-505cea169c74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taxi Industry Regulation, Deregulation, and Reregulation: The Paradox of Market Failure
(from the March 2018 Gwern.net newsletter)
Uber/Lyft are disrupting the near-total regulatory capture of the taxi industry. But why does that regulatory mess exist in the first place? As it turns out, the regulations are trying to... |
d5b50303-2a07-42f7-ad82-43dd929f2112 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Weekly Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Weekly Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 29 June 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2128 Oxford Street, Berkeley, CA 94704
We'll meet at 7 and depart for a nearby restaurant at 7:20.
Discussion article for the meetup : Weekly Berkeley Meetup |
84845a51-a9e5-4ebb-afcf-c9d37f0189af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Plans Are Predictions, Not Optimization Targets
Imagine a (United States) high-schooler who wants to be a doctor. Their obvious high-level plan to achieve that goal is:
* Graduate high school and get into college
* Go to college, study some bio/chem/physiology, graduate and get into med school
* Go to med school, ... |
c36e92bb-e556-46d8-b691-ae51ac136f62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | So You Want to Colonize the Universe Part 2: Deep Time Engineering
Part 2: Deep Time Engineering
(1, 3, 4, 5)
----------------------------------------
So, with "Gotta go Fast" as the highest goal, and aware of the fact that the amount of computational resources and thinking time devoted to building fast starships w... |
e780fbab-d4d9-4559-b903-40fc647282a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How RL Agents Behave When Their Actions Are Modified? [Distillation post]
Summary
This is a distillation post intended to summarize the article How RL Agents Behave When Their Actions Are Modified? by Eric Langlois and Tom Everitt, published at AAAI-21. The article describes Modified Action MDPs, where the environment... |
c1514212-42a6-483a-a18c-d8ec2d9f27e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Which singularity schools plus the no singularity school was right?
TL;DR of this post: Accelerating change and Event Horizon were the most accurate schools, with Intelligence Explosion proving to be interestingly wrong (Discontinuities only make a new field for AI get off the ground, not solve the entire problem ala ... |
54b68168-35e2-4877-95b8-6352d9b1afe6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | formalizing the QACI alignment formal-goal
*this work was done by [Tamsin Leake](https://carado.moe) and [Julia Persson](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/juliahp) at [Orthogonal](https://orxl.org).*
*thanks to [mesaoptimizer](https://mesaoptimizer.com/) for his help putting together this post.*
what does the [QACI... |
ea73a763-d906-44e3-963d-eec303ce5fd2 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3701
The list of posts is getting unwieldy, so I'll post the up-to-date stuff at the beginning: Humans inconsistencies: Bias in rationality is much worse than noise Learning values, or defining them? Rationality and overriding rewards: combined model Humans can be assigned any values whatsoever... Resolving hu... |
1b198c7f-076c-4cc5-9221-36fa1a3f461e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First German Meeting
Yesterday, we held the first German LessWrong meeting in Munich. Attending were six people, mostly from south Germany. The main focus was to get to know each other and see where we stand on various issues, but we also discussed nootropics, mainly nicotine and melatonine, methods of self improvemen... |
2576cace-6414-40f5-89dc-e4a80224a251 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2018-12-06 – Table of Contents and Q&A
After a couple months of work, we're ready for a significant update to LessWrong:
* Post Page Redesign
* Open Questions (aka Q&A)
* Table of Contents (aka ToC)
* Comment Guidelines
Post Page Redesign
The first thing you probably noticed is that we redesigned the ... |
fd146e1f-3dc9-4c57-88aa-270c5ad53211 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What good is G-factor if you're dumped in the woods? A field report from a camp counselor.
I had a surprising experience with a 10 year old child "Carl" a few years back. He had all the stereotypical signals of a gifted kid that can be drilled into anyone by a dedicated parent- 1500 chess elo, constantly pestered me a... |
7608a8f7-902d-4b83-90c0-f101de432280 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | BOOK DRAFT: 'Ethics and Superintelligence' (part 1, revised)
As previously announced, I plan to post the first draft of the book, Ethics and Superintelligence, in tiny parts, to the Less Wrong discussion area. Your comments and constructive criticisms are much appreciated.
This is not a book for a mainstream audience... |
04abb09d-a3ab-4629-aaff-ca1d24e3e533 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup: Goal Factoring Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup: Goal Factoring Discussion
WHEN: 13 December 2015 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome!
New Me... |
4776ba30-ad68-4f93-8c4b-3af1989bc679 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] "Science" as Curiosity-Stopper
Today's post, "Science" as Curiosity-Stopper was originally published on 03 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Although science does have explanations for phenomena, it is not enough to simply say that "Science!" is responsible for how something works -... |
85efbe28-2fb1-4c4a-9251-8feba5ccb179 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | By what metric do you judge a reference class?
The reference class problem is when you have a singular phenomena (e.g your friend Josh) and to extrapolate data and make predictions about this singular phenomena, you have to put it in a reference class of similar phenomena. The question becomes how you quantify similar... |
d58352ab-5414-4f3e-8713-361ec5d633c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Trying to measure AI deception capabilities using temporary simulation fine-tuning
**Rationale**
-------------
It is hard to ensure that a powerful AI model gives good answers just because it believes these answers are true. Deceptive models could give the expected answers for whatever instrumental reasons. And [syco... |
b815ba31-0032-4936-bb84-ff7a67cadf72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simple Terminal Colors
I work in the terminal a lot and I often want to write programs that color their output a bit. For example, perhaps I'm looking at a sequencing read and I want to know what part of it was the reason it was flagged. I could use colorama, termcolor, or another library, but including a dependency f... |
c8d456cc-4fd3-4531-b1b5-34b888fc1593 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intuitive self-models] 8. Rooting Out Free Will Intuitions
8.1 Post summary / Table of contents
This is the final post of the Intuitive Self-Models series.
One-paragraph tl;dr: This post is, in a sense, the flip side of Post 3. Post 3 centered around the suite of intuitions related to free will. What are these intui... |
1295aa69-2166-4811-91af-9f43ccb244d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Declustering, reclustering, and filling in thingspace
Eliezer has talked about thingspace - an abstract space in which objects lie, defined by their properties on some scales. In thingspace, there are some more-or-less natural categories, such as the "bird" category, that correspond to clusters in this thingspace. Dra... |
7288e40b-5c16-4769-bef8-75b1e9ec1a0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If a "Kickstarter for Inadequate Equlibria" was built, do you have a concrete inadequate equilibrium to fix?
Yoav Ravid asks: "Is there an assurance-contract website in work?"
i.e. a site where, if there's a locally bad equilibrium that would be better if everyone changed strategies at once, but which requires a crit... |
8305d509-424a-469f-a8b7-ca223186ea8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What empirical research directions has Eliezer commented positively on?
I'm interested in both work that he's commented on positively after the fact and any comments might have made on what directions are generally fruitful. |
ff92f5e4-84e6-4837-884f-89311ca3b981 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bijective function
A bijective function is a [https://arbital.com/p/-3jy](https://arbital.com/p/-3jy) which has an inverse. Equivalently, it is both [injective](https://arbital.com/p/injective_function) and [surjective](https://arbital.com/p/surjective_function). |
e7efbdac-1926-4f75-af7c-5c9bcb28b230 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware the suboptimal routine
AKA: If it's stupid but it works, it's still stupid.
TL;DR: It's easy to slip into a routine which accomplishes some task but is inconvenient or annoying. Sometimes, there's a trivial change that makes the task significantly easier. The trick is noticing that you're stuck in such a routi... |
192471b8-7f18-4b22-835f-dd62c14051eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assembling Sets for Contra
Contra dances usually run about eight minutes, which is really kind of long. [1] To keep things interesting, it's common for bands to play sets: a series of tunes that go together. But what does "go together" mean, and how do you make your own sets?
The first consideration, and it's a big o... |
1ecedecd-1863-4a30-bc21-30c16fb1ecb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recommendation Features on LessWrong
Today, we're rolling out several new beta features on the home page, which display recommended posts to read. The first is a Continue Reading section: if you start reading a multi-post sequence, it will suggest that you read another post from that sequence. The second is a From the... |
79f3e2e2-37a3-4bff-9c56-99064c4f0b3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to make real-money prediction markets on arbitrary topics (Outdated)
Intro
On current real-money event market platforms, traders are limited to viewing and betting on markets made by platform operators. This means the questions tend to be confined to popular subjects like politics and sporting outcomes, and the si... |
fe30b35a-86a1-4f7a-b1ff-c5a4ddf327e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is progress?
In one sense, the concept of progress is simple, straightforward, and uncontroversial. In another sense, it contains an entire worldview.
The most basic meaning of “progress” is simply advancement along a path, or more generally from one state to another that is considered more advanced by some stan... |
7e2b6d0f-ba94-4c75-86d8-de010bae8421 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Ways to buy time
[In our last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbM47qBPzdSRruY4z/instead-of-technical-research-more-people-should-focus-on), we claimed:
> **On the margin, we think more alignment researchers should work on “buying time” interventions instead of technical alignment research**(or whatever else th... |
a1edb501-1936-4307-9b88-8c3a92445e8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is going on in Singapore and the Philippines?
Both saw early cases and then seemed to see things level off. Some suggested it was the sensitivity to heat and humidity plus, for Singapore, quick and decisive actions to limit the spread.
Both are now looking almost like they are at the start of their outbreak.
An... |
3b5d7f70-32f3-4a83-953a-97e444bef0f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How is reinforcement learning possible in non-sentient agents?
(Probably a stupid nooby question that won't help solve alignment)
Suppose you implement a goal in an AI through a reinforcement learning system. Why does the AI really "care" about this goal? Why does it obey? It does because it is punished and/or reward... |
83ba6fbc-356b-4b89-9cde-b3a5cd1966a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reasons-based choice and cluelessness
Crossposted from my Substack.
Rational choice theory is commonly thought of as being about what to do in light of our beliefs and preferences. But our beliefs and preferences come from somewhere. I would say that we believe and prefer things for reasons. My evidence gives me reas... |
9b78a9f1-4c3d-4d52-a824-31580fc426b8 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post12
In the future, we will want to use powerful AIs on critical tasks such as doing AI safety and security R&D, dangerous capability evaluations, red-teaming safety protocols, or monitoring other powerful models. Since we care about models performing well on these tasks, we are worried about sandbagging: that i... |
e1411e70-b7e0-4084-a64c-1231b2679a7f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Benchmarks for Detecting Measurement Tampering [Redwood Research]
**TL;DR**: This post discusses our recent empirical work on detecting measurement tampering and explains how we see this work fitting into the overall space of alignment research.
When training powerful AI systems to perform complex tasks, it may be ch... |
1e7383f2-6de0-43d8-8b16-a8d06cc85c81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Buy Duplicates
Gum
Sometimes I need to ensure the quality of my breath, so I reach for a stick of gum. However, I don't always have my gum on me. Often, I forget it at home, or at work, or in a jacket.
So I bought 5 packs of gum that I distributed to my house, my work, my backpack, and my jacket.
Charger
I like t... |
89735657-16ba-4717-8445-0ad92e84b5ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interest in a Christchurch (New Zealand) Meetup
I'm considering starting a Christchurch LessWrong Meetup and would like to get a measure of interest in the area. Including me, there are already three people interested, so you're sure to meet someone new! Please comment if you'd be at all interested.
I'd also like ... |
27c8773c-40b7-486b-ae1f-7abe997d477f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All Lesswrong Posts by Yudkowsky in one .epub
This .epub has been generated using webpages-to-ebook. Thanks to j0rges user from Reddit for compiling the urls. The book contains all Eliezer Yudkowsky's posts from Lesswrong since the beginning. HPMOR posts have not been included.
An index with all the URLs included in... |
f3cc55f7-fb34-4596-8253-4d3d6ca18a4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The paperclip maximiser's perspective
Here's an insight into what life is like from a stationery reference frame.
Paperclips were her raison d’être. She knew that ultimately it was all pointless, that paperclips were just ill-defined configurations of matter. That a paperclip is made of stuff shouldn’t detract from i... |
50ca64f5-37e7-4964-899f-1d8d207b1321 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would make you confident that AGI has been achieved?
Consensus seems to be that there is no fire alarm for artificial intelligence. We may see the smoke and think nothing of it. But at what point do we acknowledge that the fire has entered the room? To be less euphemistic, what would have to happen to convince yo... |
2905c3af-999d-4f52-b846-e50776b44141 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | An appeal to people who are smarter than me: please help me clarify my thinking about AI
Hi,
As a disclaimer, this will not be as eloquent or well-informed as most of the other posts on this forum. I’m something of an EA lurker who has a casual interest in philosophy but is wildly out of her intellectual depth on t... |
e136cfb1-b9aa-40c4-ba7e-4f0cbcd24802 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Adversarial Resilience Learning Architecture for AI-based Modelling, Exploration, and Operation of Complex Cyber-Physical Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
A cyber-physical system (CPS) is constituted of two components: On the one hand a
physical-component, in which sensors perceive the system’s environmen... |
57020cc4-fcef-46f9-977f-a0189c9b4369 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | But exactly how complex and fragile?
*This is a post about my own confusions. It seems likely that other people have discussed these issues at length somewhere, and that I am not up with current thoughts on them, because I don’t keep good track of even everything great that everyone writes. I welcome anyone kindly dir... |
4cb84542-b851-4e1e-9227-451bc652abb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rare Exception or Common Exception
Proposition: Pointing out that rare exceptions exist is usually a negative derailing tactic. However if you think your conversational partner is annoyingly pointing out a rare exception, double-check in case they think they are pointing out a common exception.
------
Human space is d... |
fb0bf41b-895f-486e-98f1-fadc0636b56b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steelmanning OpenAI's Short-Timelines Slow-Takeoff Goal
Here's the question: Is one year of additional alignment research more beneficial than one more year of hardware overhang is harmful?
One problem I see is that alignment research can be of variable or questionable value, while hardware overhang is an economic ce... |
1bbfd4a4-122b-4d60-ae02-d0ad0eceed87 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled
*[**Epistemic status:** Very speculative, especially Parts 3 and 4. Like many good things, this post is based on a conversation with Paul Christiano; most of the good ideas are his, any errors are mine.]*
**I.**
In the 1950s, an Austrian scientist discovered a series of... |
372a2fb7-15de-4521-b982-815be3176328 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chu are you?
Maybe you've heard about something called a Chu space around here. But what the heck is a Chu space? And whatever it is, does it really belong with all the rich mathematical structures we know and love?
Say you have some stuff. What can you do with it?
Maybe it's made of little pieces, and you can do... |
930ad3cc-8597-4151-9d39-3eb06db674e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Psychology of Existential Risk: Moral Judgments about Human Extinction
[Download PDF](/articles/s41598-019-50145-9.pdf)
### Subjects
\* [Human behaviour](/subjects/human-behaviour)
\* [Psychology and behaviour](/subjects/psychology-and-behaviour)
Abstract
--------
The 21st century will likely see gro... |
44d5ef47-66dc-41c1-804a-efe7761a2d40 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Aspiration-based Q-Learning
*Work completed during a two-month internship supervised by* [*@Jobst Heitzig*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jobst-heitzig?mention=user)*.*
*Thanks to Phine Schikhof for her invaluable conversations and friendly support during the internship, and to Jobst Heitzig, who was an amazing sup... |
9f10ac91-f045-4056-93ce-86371b53bee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding gliders in the game of life
ARC’s current approach to ELK is to point to latent structure within a model by searching for the “reason” for particular correlations in the model’s output. In this post we’ll walk through a very simple example of using this approach to identify gliders in the game of life.
We’ll ... |
4c9f8deb-1083-48b4-80ab-9b29908b482d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Chicago Applied Rationality Training
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Applied Rationality Training
WHEN: 07 May 2017 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Harper Memorial Library Room 148, 1116 E 59th St, Chicago, IL 60637
The Chicago rationality group meets every Sunday from 1-3 PM in Room 148 of Harper Me... |
7dfd0f17-8bfc-40f4-93b9-7f6b698d769b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Need-Sets
This is a toy psychological theory which tries to explain why gratitude practices and stoicism have good effects.
Your "need-set" is all the things you need. More specifically, your need-set is the collection of things that have to seem true for you to feel either OK or better.
Broadly, we have two kind... |
70ccf604-b0ea-4d2b-8600-b0d52c5fd101 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Hammertime Final Exam] Accommodate Yourself; Kindness Is An Epistemic Virtue; Privileging the Future
[this is my entry for the Hammertime Final Exam. I answered all three prompts but took much longer than five minutes writing each part.]
1. Accommodate Yourself
(related: Society Is Fixed, Biology Is Mutable; Design... |
85a2cd1d-5acd-4951-b3da-c4d0c2a4f213 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two super-intelligences (evolution and science) already exist: what could we learn from them in terms of AI's future and safety?
There are two things in the past that may be named super-intelligences, if we consider level of tasks they solved. Studying them is useful when we are considering the creation of our own AI... |
12fb4503-0695-4231-aa4a-0e78f1f6ce96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI'
I begin by thanking Holden Karnofsky of [Givewell](http://www.givewell.org/) for his rare gift of his detailed, engaged, and helpfully-meant critical article [Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI)](/lw/cbs/thoughts_on_the_singularity_institute_si/). In this reply I will engage with on... |
89b7b787-bc30-4d50-a981-a671903c2287 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #36: Voluntary Commitments are Insufficient Plus, a Senate AI Policy Roadmap, and Chapter 1: An Overview of Catastrophic Risks
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive future versions.... |
7828a643-cab3-4821-836e-b5793dccc046 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Dynamic inconsistency of the inaction and initial state baseline
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; ... |
0283b301-6231-4ef1-8afc-c39949bf1d06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | USAID Outlook: A Metaculus Forecasting Series
On January 20th, President Trump signed Executive Order 14169, pausing foreign aid for 90 days and launching a review of all assistance programs. This decision creates significant uncertainty for global health and development initiatives worldwide, many of which rely heavi... |
bf93d685-5e94-4baf-9b61-8fc54056ca8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unknown Knowns
Previously (Marginal Revolution): Gambling Can Save Science
A study was done to attempt to replicate 21 studies published in Science and Nature.
Beforehand, prediction markets were used to see which studies would be predicted to replicate with what probability. The results were as follows (from the o... |
c6c72ec0-9e84-49aa-8044-385dc4251128 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amazing strategy for "Split or Steal"(prisoner's dilemma)
Amazing strategy by one of the guys(watch to see):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8 |
672885d1-7527-4271-8331-cd688e53c992 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SIAI Fundraising
Please refer to the updated documented here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/5il/siai_an_examination/
This version is an old draft.
NOTE: Analysis here will be updated as people point out errors! I've tried to be accurate, but this is my first time looking at these (somewhat hairy) non-profit tax documen... |
cdd612b9-8566-4930-9199-6edd0ac337ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Breaking Circuit Breakers
A few days ago, Gray Swan published code and models for their recent “circuit breakers” method for language models.[1]1
The circuit breakers method defends against jailbreaks by training the model to erase “bad” internal representations. We are very excited about data-efficient defensive met... |
41925bd2-2845-4e62-8de6-9c166ea59948 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The purposeful drunkard
I'm behind on a couple of posts I've been planning, but am trying to post something every day if possible. So today I'll post a cached fun piece on overinterpreting a random data phenomenon that's tricked me before.
Recall that a random walk or a "drunkard's walk" (as in the title) is a sequen... |
748a9292-f6fd-46f9-b26f-c421d8b6da01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodbye, Shoggoth: The Stage, its Animatronics, & the Puppeteer – a New Metaphor
Thanks to Quentin FEUILLADE--MONTIXI for the discussion in which we came up with this idea together, and for feedback on drafts.
TL;DR A better metaphor for how LLMs behave, how they are trained, and particularly for how to think about t... |
8af886f0-32de-4be8-80dd-eb8d92fd7267 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why EAs are skeptical about AI Safety
**TL;DR** I interviewed 22 EAs who are skeptical about AI safety. My belief is that there is demand for better communication of AI safety arguments. I have several project ideas aimed in that direction, and am open to meeting potential collaborators (more info at the end of the po... |
4e3bc6e3-a408-44e6-b473-1aecd53ca0be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick Book Review: Crucial Conversations
I just finished reading Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes Are High by by Kerry Patterson, Joseph Grenny, Ron McMillan, and Al Switzler. This is a quick review of the book.
I can summarize the whole book for you in roughly the space of a tweet:
> Difficult c... |
87847c44-38eb-4dbc-952f-165c62eda368 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Weekly Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Weekly Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 06 July 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2128 Oxford Street, Berkeley, CA 94704
Regular Weekly Berkeley Meetup! We'll meet at 7:00 at starbucks, and depart for a nearby restaraunt at 7:20. Give me a call at 952.217.0505 i... |
ac4d3362-e438-4432-8766-8bf7fba83152 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
WHEN: 07 April 2017 08:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20
Welcome to the next Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library!
Our plan:
* A talk about CFAR rationality skills checklist.... |
b153bfd4-1a51-4ccc-a6ad-c8427b53195a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming the Loebian obstacle using evidence logic
In this post I intend to:
* Briefly explain the Loebian obstacle and it's relevance to AI (feel free to skip it if you know what the Loebian obstacle is).
* Suggest a solution in the form a formal system which assigns probabilities (more generally probability int... |
5104581c-5424-466d-b02c-c633758fb752 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality and being child-free
So I found this post quite interesting:
http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2009/03/gnxp-readers-do-not-breed.php
(I'm quite sure that the demographics of this site closely parallel the demographics on Gene Expression).
Research seems to indicate that people are happiest when they're married, ... |
3429cfa7-1b0c-407b-8084-9973c0a4e67c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Specialized Labor and Counterfactual Compensation
I have three purposes in this post. The first is to review the formal game theory found in Robert Ellickson's Order Without Law. It's not a large part of the book, but it's the part that I'm most qualified to judge. Not that I'm a formal game theorist myself, but I'm c... |
1d51ebfa-5f0f-487d-85f3-71e91ee083c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A note on 'semiotic physics'
### **Introduction**
This is an attempt to explain to myself the concept of *semiotic physics* that appears in the original [Simulators](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators) post by [janus](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/janus-1) and in [a later post](h... |
a4228a8d-0d08-4736-8e04-d2b42479743c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Letting Go III: Unilateral or GTFO
Context: The first post gave a long list of examples of just-let-go design: a problem-solving approach/aesthetic based on giving up direct control over the system. The second post talked about giving up control as a visible signal of understanding. In this post, we get to main advant... |
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