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ab218a25-4cc4-4f88-8b10-3f388c928069 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Speech] Worlds That Never Were
This is the speech I gave at the 2018 Bay Area Secular Solstice. It was written to fit the bill of 'concrete visions of the future.' There is one small change here from the version I gave : the Solstice organizers had me change the second-to-last sentence of the speech, because the even... |
a8eb6a96-5ce4-4135-8526-84cfafe154f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What Does a Marginal Grant at LTFF Look Like? Funding Priorities and Grantmaking Thresholds at the Long-Term Future Fund
The Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF) makes small, targeted grants with the aim of improving the long-term trajectory of humanity. We are currently fundraising to cover our grantmaking budget for the nex... |
44aea485-5dfc-4179-bbb4-e4ce73644bed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philadelphia SSC Meetup
Philadelphia SSC typically meets the last Wednesday of every month at 6:30pm, locations TBA. To avoid upcoming holidays, we've moved up some of our dates; below are our scheduled meetups through the end of 2019:
Wednesday, Oct. 30, 6:30pm - Tir Na Nog Irish Pub, 1600 Arch St., Philadelphia
We... |
c506dabc-6231-4170-a584-1c1262966f2d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Decoupling Exploration and Exploitation for Meta-Reinforcement Learning without Sacrifices
1 Introduction
---------------
A general-purpose agent should be able to perform multiple related tasks across multiple related environments.
Our goal is to develop agents that can perform a variety of tasks in novel environm... |
d60d3733-1318-475f-a967-baf43b58efab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video & transcript: Challenges for Safe & Beneficial Brain-Like AGI
(Lightly edited) transcript starts here
(FYI: This has a decent amount of overlap with the version I posted here two years ago, but it’s accumulated enough edits over time that I wanted to re-transcribe the latest version.)
Thank you for inviting me!... |
ccc1c8b7-7a7c-4411-a2ea-07512959c0f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Grow a Mind (video)
From the recent NIPS conference, here's a talk by MIT cognitive scientist Josh Tenenbaum on what he calls "rich" machine learning. Should be of some relevance for people who are interested in AI or human cognitive development. I found it really interesting.
http://videolectures.net/nips20... |
fe984d8b-4524-47f6-b85e-a411e8ec896b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Will working here advance AGI? Help us not destroy the world!
I often talk to developers who prefer not destroying the world by accident (specifically by accelerating AGI risk), but neither them nor me can decide if specific companies qualify for this.
Could someone knowledgable help? A few short replies could probab... |
09704b82-4c7a-44b3-91db-f2bbd6f5ed5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nonverbal thinkers: how do you experience your inner critic?
This is something I've been puzzled by for a long time, for myself. The "inner critic" is generally described as a literal voice that people hear, saying things like "wow, I'm such an idiot", "nobody likes me", etc.
My problem here is that I generally don't... |
57eb7bb3-eb9f-46d2-904c-32514e17ba5e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Multi-Issue Negotiation with Deadlines
|
58a37a68-ec5d-4b2b-bdd1-f640cc016097 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Mundane solutions to exotic problems
I’m looking for alignment techniques that are [indefinitely scalable](https://ai-alignment.com/directions-and-desiderata-for-ai-control-b60fca0da8f4) and that [work in any situation we can dream up](https://ai-alignment.com/my-research-methodology-b94f2751cb2c). That means I spend ... |
33df98fe-007f-4c3d-85bf-52a4b33c16c0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Safe Exploration: Concrete Problems in AI Safety Part 6
hi this is the latest video in a series
about the paper concrete problems in AI
safety you don't need to have seen the
previous videos for this but I'd
recommend checking them out anyway
there's a link in the description today
we're going to talk about safe
explo... |
d70d2089-45da-4b1c-8bc9-4493361db623 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dimensionalizing Forecast Value
tl;dr
In quantitative finance, the value of forecasting is obvious. No decisions are made without forecasts, and every forecast is created for some decision.
On Metaculus1, the signal is just as sharp, but the market for the signal is fuzzier. The gap isn’t quality: it’s that the value... |
298a3507-6da5-4e31-b021-a886d961a30b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Ultra-simplified research agenda
This is an ultra-condensed version of the [research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into) on synthesising human preferences (video version [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M9CvESSeVc)):
In order ... |
3ff8eba4-231e-4892-a52b-afd7e4207c3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experience diets
Imagine you have a part of your mind that just keeps track of which visceral experiences you have how often, and then expects more experiences in that ratio. So if you look at pictures of crocodiles, it feels like crocodiles are a bigger part of what is going on in the world. And then if you watch ten... |
be3085e0-2ae9-46b6-b9ae-1365014afaa9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | .
. |
895fe413-0494-4ae4-9503-d9a3d5a25c72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I hate the "accident vs. misuse" AI x-risk dichotomy (quick thoughts on "structural risk")
* I think the large majority of AI x-risk is "structural". Like climate change.
* Here's a good primer on structural risk (note that structural risk is not a synonym for "not caused by out-of-control AI"): https://forum.e... |
dd80ed1a-2504-462d-862f-8ca333b2ce39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Updatelessness as a Robust Delegation Problem
(Cross-posted an Less Wrong)
There is a cluster of problems in understanding naturalized agency which I call Robust Delegation (EDIT: When I first wrote this, I called it "subagent alignment"). It refers to the way in which a limited agent might direct a more powe... |
801e9719-184f-4fec-8263-4cd0449d43de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We ran an AI safety conference in Tokyo. It went really well. Come next year!
Abstract
Technical AI Safety 2024 (TAIS 2024) was a conference organised by AI Safety 東京 and Noeon Research, in collaboration with Reaktor Japan, AI Alignment Network and AI Industry Foundation. You may have heard of us through ACX.
The goa... |
68e5be4f-4060-4d0e-88cb-6ab076b6809f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [META] Recent Posts for Discussion and Main
This link
http://lesswrong.com/r/all/recentposts
gives a page which lists all the recent posts in both the Main and Discussion sections. I've posted it in the comments section before, but I decided to put it in a discussion post because it's a really handy way of accessing... |
069fe342-a6fc-4c09-b66d-9fd8989cf58f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constantly ask what you're currently doing that is irrational
At today's meetup in Tortuga, we were supposed to discuss something we're currently being irrational about. In retrospect I could probably have done better than the item I picked (for example, it now occurs to me that I'm probably currently being irrationa... |
d234be42-ab5b-42dc-8f20-3f67505846d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May
WHEN: 01 May 2016 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
Join us for the May dojo at Humanist House! As per usual, we will be running different exercises for two hours, followed by socialising... |
ce211bf5-b200-443d-94e5-13f37f597cec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views. A draft was sent to Robin Hanson for review but received no response.
Summary
* Robi... |
ac787963-7e48-45d0-a95e-39abfb87cd22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applications of logical uncertainty
Lately I've been reading a lot about the problem of logical uncertainty. The problem is that there are logical consequences of your beliefs that you're uncertain about.
So, for statements like "the billionth digit of pi is even", it's provable from your beliefs. But you're still un... |
eb5e5347-c677-4929-a2da-99481789028e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy
TLDR: Rational people who start out uncertain about an (in fact independent) causal process and then learn from unbiased data will rule out “streaky” hypotheses more quickly than “switchy” hypotheses. As a result, they’ll commit the gambler’s fallacy: expecting the process to swi... |
724c0e24-422d-4386-9e61-9b22ed8cafe8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Concrete actions to improve AI governance: the behaviour science approach
**Summary**
===========
Human decision-making and concrete, observable actions about how to develop and use AI now will influence how successfully we navigate the transitions to a world with advanced AI systems. In this article, I apply behavio... |
665e1cfd-fa0e-4522-9d80-e839c706fcaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Robot scientists can think for themselves"
I recently saw this Reuters article on Yahoo News. In typical science reporting fashion, the headline seems to be pure hyperbole - does anyone here know enough to clarify what the groups referenced have actually achieved?
This links represent what I could find:
Homepage of... |
cd3f1812-0da7-4a56-ae7a-5a7c47fd6f61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is recursive self-alignment possible?
Suppose an emulation of Eliezer Yudkowsky, as of January 2023, discovered how to self-modify. It's possible that the returns of capability per unit effort would start increasing, which would make its intelligence FOOM.
The emulation starts with an interest in bringing about utopi... |
0ce871d7-9c1c-4c7e-8e9f-0f1d2359b5a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interpretable Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning through Policy Orchestration
1 Introduction
---------------
Concerns about the ways in which cyber-physical and/or autonomous decision making systems behave when deployed in the real world are growing: what various stakeholder are worried about is that the system... |
17ba5fae-a192-42f4-a1fb-ec96cc5fdd82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why keep a diary, and why wish for large language models
Inspired by a dream I just woke up from, where I did not keep a diary
One of the people with whom I have the most intimate of connections is my past self - in particular, my child self. We share a large number of commonalities: much of our basic outlook, our pe... |
234b2247-85ba-4f5c-81f5-e0d87e520a71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing The Effective Altruism Forum
The Effective Altruism Forum will be launched at effective-altruism.com on September 10, British time.
Now seems like a good time time to discuss why we might need an Effective Altruism Forum, and how it might compare to LessWrong.
About the Effective Altruism Forum
The motiv... |
f3d160e7-8389-4438-9e90-7f9146761d30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperation with and between AGI\'s
[This post is primarily aimed at a Foresight Institute audience. I don't know whether the average LW reader will learn much from it.]
This post is mostly a response to the Foresight Institute's book Gaming the Future, which is very optimistic about AI's being cooperative. They expe... |
ca349dfd-4c2e-441c-a63e-c9be00eb934a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Jason has been reading, April 2023
A monthly feature. Note that I generally don’t include very recent writing here, such as the latest blog posts (for those, see my Twitter digests); this is for my deeper research.
AI
First, various historical perspectives on AI, many of which were quite prescient:
Alan Turing... |
f5af3d98-7e10-4905-8ad1-6b207b83a23d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Joy in the Here and Real
Summary: What do you do for simple, quick fun? Do you mind sharing with others?
Tags: Repeatable
Purpose: “Have fun” and “be happy” are common goals people have. If you can’t turn a few bucks and a few hours into a good time, you have a glaring gap in your abilities and I believe this is a ... |
a003a8ec-ef08-4a6d-a3fb-e5180fc322f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Interactions between the AI Control Problem and the Governance Problem | Nick Bostrom
[Music]
so the first one was the question if
human-level AI is developed then what
are the likely outcomes and I'm going to
try to go over this fairly quickly to
spend more time on the second question
but we heard about them is talki... |
08bc6c1e-39fb-4837-8066-f4fa26026e2b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Aggregating incoherent agents who disagree
1 Aggregating credences
------------------------
Let’s begin by considering two different methods for aggregating a collection of credence functions that are defined over the same set of propositions ℱ={X1,…,Xm}ℱsubscript𝑋1…subscript𝑋𝑚\mathcal{F}=\{X\_{1},\ldots,X\_{m}\... |
9f36918e-861e-4ae0-8669-025f98f34d24 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Disentangling inner alignment failures
**TL;DR:** This is an attempt to disentangle some concepts that I used to conflate too much as just "inner alignment". This will be old news to some, but might be helpful for people who feel confused about how deception, distributional shift, and "sharp left turns" are related. I... |
ca7eb90b-607d-43f8-a968-a86dcaeb2632 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stable Pointers to Value II: Environmental Goals
Cross-posted.
In Stable Pointers to Value, I discussed various ways in which we can try to “robustly point at what we want” (ie, do value learning). I can tidy up the discussion there into three categories:
1. Standard reinforcement learning (RL) frameworks, includin... |
3eac9783-5e8b-4dde-9273-fead8f80a1a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | EU's importance for AI governance is conditional on AI trajectories - a case study
The goal of this post is to show that AI trajectories matter a great deal when evaluating how some institution is expected to influence AI governance. To show this I argue that the importance of the Brussels effect, one of the EU's leve... |
a7fe2554-c7f2-4829-ad65-927395f72ef5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near
[The Singularity Is Near](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near) is a book by [Ray Kurzweil](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil). It argues that a [technological singularity](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity) will occur in around 2045. This ... |
65557c42-497e-463d-9af8-5edb77043f85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Senses of "knowing" a person
Saying that you "know" someone is imprecise. What do you know about them?
Here's a slightly arbitrary heptachotomy of information that could count as knowledge of a person:
1. trivially-recorded data, like their name, age, or location
2. their interests, hobbies, or occupation
3. thei... |
79bc602a-d6db-4915-b8aa-65e99d7b6fd0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Intrinsic limitations of GPT-4 and other large language models, and why I'm not (very) worried about GPT-n
Introduction
------------
Over my years of involvement in Effective Altruism, I have written [several](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/j7X8nQ7YvvA7Pi4BX/a-critique-of-ai-takeover-scenarios) forum posts... |
bdbe1e30-e006-4e7e-9cd8-90cb2ab69763 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a Schelling point for group house room listings?
My rationalist group house near Boston has a room opening (details here), and I'm wondering if there's a Schelling point for listing that sort of thing.
I posted the opening here and to the relevant local Facebook groups, but I'm wondering where might be good ... |
d4b1616a-e861-4a8e-a892-d78cf60a8431 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness
Followup to: Magical Categories
What on Earth could someone possibly be thinking, when they propose creating a superintelligence whose behaviors are reinforced by human smiles? Tiny molecular photographs of human smiles - or if you rule that out, then faces ripped off and perma... |
bce397bc-2946-468b-aa92-43c6642fb70c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] The Decision Education Foundation
Among Michael Anissimov's recent Delicious links, I spotted The Decision Education Foundation. It seems to be relevant to our interest in spreading rationality and bringing up young rationalists, but I hadn't seen it shared or discussed before and just thought I'd share it.
>... |
0db5b419-d3f0-42a1-b980-2bfa5395201d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Key Decision Analysis - a fundamental rationality technique
The technique
This post is signal-boosting and recommending a strategy for improving your decision making that I picked up from the entrepreneur Ivan Mazour. He describes the process here, and publishes his own results every year on his blog.
In his words..... |
f2f3df8f-3807-40ff-87cf-b1fc37500692 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy — $25k in prizes
With AI Impacts, we’re pleased to announce an essay competition on the automation of wisdom and philosophy. Submissions are due by July 14th. The first prize is $10,000, and there is a total of $25,000 in prizes available.
Submit an entry ... |
e77efbd7-0150-48d2-b208-1c9a8cfd0121 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There have been 3 planes (billionaire donors) and 2 have crashed
I'd rather not go into the details about which billionaires are which, so if it's actually 4 and 3 or 6 and 4, then that may or may not be debatable. I'm much more worried about whether MIRI survives the decade.
It seems to me like this is a good place ... |
9b01f6c7-ab5b-4d2c-9eb6-e41fa4c6d6ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Unsupervised deep learning identifies semantic disentanglement in single inferotemporal face patch neurons
Our brain has an amazing ability to process visual information. We can take one glance at a complex scene, and within milliseconds be able to parse it into objects and their attributes, like colour or size, and u... |
e624d0fd-86d4-4b3d-b834-fdcaeecfe87b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We're Redwood Research, we do applied alignment research, AMA
Redwood Research is a longtermist organization working on AI alignment based in Berkeley, California. We're going to do an AMA this week; we'll answer questions mostly on Wednesday and Thursday this week (6th and 7th of October). Buck Shlegeris, Bill Zito, ... |
310efa75-3382-4a7e-afc7-b634528f7185 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consider tabooing "I think"
People say "I think" a lot. Here are some examples:
* I think you brought me the wrong order.
* I think the numbers in the report are wrong.
* I think you need to turn left at the light.
* I think we need to replace the whole water heater.
* I think iPhones are better than Android pho... |
cfccf225-4779-4bc9-8947-d062389fea2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Econ 101 and its Discontents
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Econ 101 and its Discontents
WHEN: 08 November 2014 06:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
Nick will explain one of the most basic concepts in economics, the demand and supply curves, and how they interact to... |
93284fa6-b20d-40f4-9d03-6b561ec58e13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why such low detected rates of COVID-19 in children?
In China 0.9% of COVID-19 cases were in people <10. In the Chinese population 11.9% of people are <10.
In Italy its 0.5% and 8.4%.
In South Korea it's 1% and 8.4%.
10-19 year olds are also very underrepresented although less severely so.
This seems odd.
I've se... |
6f240543-81fa-4daf-882b-cf0c3172844b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The public supports regulating AI for safety
A high-quality American public survey on AI, [Artificial Intelligence Use Prompts Concerns](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_021523.pdf/), was released yesterday by Monmouth. Some notable results:
* 9% say AI[1](https://aiimpacts.org/th... |
3ced8ee4-184b-49e3-9db6-3611ae8c61b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dimensionalization
TL;DR
Dimensionalization is the practice of identifying and using quasi-independent axes or "dials" along which things vary. It’s the mental move behind tradeoff analysis, optimization, and design thinking. You are doing it already!
Unlike categorization or decomposition, dimensionalization preserv... |
b45ce2e1-1f0e-4d20-a909-e46446327b43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opinions on the sleep synaptic homeostasis hypothesis?
To a very crude approximation, the brain works via Hebbian learning. If neuron A fires immediately before neuron B then the synapse from A to B gets strengthened.
There’s just one problem with Hebbian learning. Carry on long enough and you will eventually end up ... |
f224f859-4984-45c6-a36a-e814ba18f072 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can an agent use interactive proofs to check the alignment of succesors?
Some time ago I read an article on the difficulties of agents building succesors. The argument was something like this: Suppose we have solved the ultimate objective of goodness and built an agent A who does only things that he can prove are good... |
d4a2efd4-fc48-4be6-9973-f2e4cd6d195c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MATS Winter 2023-24 Retrospective
Co-Authors: @Rocket, @LauraVaughan, @McKennaFitzgerald, @Christian Smith, @Juan Gil, @Henry Sleight, @Matthew Wearden, @Ryan Kidd
The ML Alignment & Theory Scholars program (MATS) is an education and research mentorship program for researchers entering the field of AI safety. This wi... |
fe38be39-9168-4573-a4be-b950db2111b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hatching the Cosmic Egg (Hymn to Dionysus)
Invocation
Dionysus, deep-hearted one, granter of words,
words heard best by the drunken and the mad,
all ecstasies and inspirations are of your lips,
I praise and honor you, I thank you for your blessings.
Dionysus, rapturous one, god of the vine,
who is lord of the far rea... |
19b037ad-0c8f-406b-9a26-31b76b9c541a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Updates and additions to "Embedded Agency"
Abram Demski and Scott Garrabrant's "[Embedded Agency](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency/)" has been updated with quite a bit of new content from Abram. All the changes are live today, and can be found at any of these links:
* as a hand-drawn sequence ([LW link](https... |
7475cb94-0532-4c61-8ef9-46c61bb284e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "AI Debate" Debate
As far as I can tell, I have a disjoint set of concerns to many of the concerns I've heard expressed in conversations about AI Safety via Debate.
My main concern with AI Debate is this: each debater has an incentive to trick the operator into running code that takes over the world, replaces the... |
e1c4ae4a-736a-49bd-8b1f-13deb807ead6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why doesn't China (or didn't anyone) encourage/mandate elastomeric respirators to control COVID?
(This post was inspired in part by this comment by Florin, which I think makes some good related points.)
Elastomeric respirators are reusable respirators made with some elastic material such as silicone, typically with... |
db117e9a-3e9c-47a9-adb8-6d706cbcb9ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should we break up Google DeepMind?
Regulators should review the 2014 DeepMind acquisition. When Google bought DeepMind in 2014, no regulator, not the FTC, not the EC's DG COMP, nor the CMA, scrutinized the impact. Why? AI startups have high value but low revenues. And so they avoid regulation (and tax, see below). Bu... |
786f8251-c625-4d51-86bc-273e70e02304 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AGI & Corporations Seminar - Conclusions
so I would love to start the session by
briefly kind of everyone summarizing
what they thought was kind of like the
most interesting part in terms of in the
sense of a a I incorporations that is
relevant to their own approach to their
own standpoint so what's the main
takeaway ... |
a6b2b72b-760a-4e89-b3e3-cc6cd86645a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What AI Safety Materials Do ML Researchers Find Compelling?
I (Vael Gates) recently ran a small pilot study with Collin Burns in which we showed ML researchers (randomly selected NeurIPS / ICML / ICLR 2021 authors) a number of introductory AI safety materials, asking them to answer questions and rate those materials.
... |
a9639d17-88b9-4046-9810-f70512844469 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In favour of a selective CEV initial dynamic
Note: I appreciate that at this point CEV is just a sketch. However, it’s an interesting topic and I don’t see that there’s any harm in discussing certain details of the concept as it stands.
1. Summary of CEV
Eliezer Yudkowsky describes CEV - Coherent Extrapolated Voliti... |
162940e0-7d5b-4096-9135-788d3aa3d1aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Safety Newsletter #4: AI and Cybersecurity, Persuasive AIs, Weaponization, and Geoffrey Hinton talks AI risks
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.s... |
2b868d20-0e1e-4889-8b0d-efe9e4b34ae5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Community Capital
Argument: There is a Thing called Community Capital (closely related to social capital), and because it is based more on How Humans Work, you can get a lot more out of it than just plain old Money.
Epistemic Status: Opening a conversation. All these ideas are in sand.
---------
I used to compare t... |
d3553aea-953c-4943-8c91-89d41e629c87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feature proposal: Close comment as resolved
There is an article. It contains a typo. Someone mentions it in a comment. The comment is upvoted as helpful. Author fixes the typo. Now there is a no-longer-useful comment in the discussion, sometimes with replies (the author saying "thanks, fixed", etc.). Sometimes it sits... |
c903b532-8572-492f-b254-6ace9eb3d064 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Time and Energy Costs to Erase a Bit
Landauer derived a limit on the amount of energy dissipated in order to erase a bit. This limit is kTlog2, where k is Boltzmann's constant and T is the temperature of the environment.
However, recently some questions have been raised as to what situations this limit applies to. Ma... |
694aaa64-7e46-475f-a159-fdf1221d1f40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | People who "don't rationalize"? [Help Rationality Group figure it out]
Anna Salamon and I are confused. Both of us notice ourselves rationalizing on pretty much a daily basis and have to apply techniques like the Litany of Tarski pretty regularly. But in several of our test sessions for teaching rationality, a handfu... |
6d6e2ad0-2d35-48f7-9797-a97e97bc0483 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver!
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver!
WHEN: 11 August 2013 03:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2505 west broadway, vancouver, bc
The usual, come chat and hang out with cool smart people who are into LW.
15:30 on Sunday at Benny's
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver! |
7e25217d-48f1-4e64-88d9-6e52dfe6a671 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Berkeley visit report
A few weeks ago, ShannonFriedman, an IFS counselor living in Berkeley, posted Female compatriots stay for a week in Berkeley an offer for rationalist women who are agenty to stay in her spare room for a few days. I replied, as I have a goal of getting to know the people associated with Less Wrong... |
aabe152a-69ea-4faa-abbc-d47a75017146 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Local KL Divergence
The KL divergence is an important tool for studying the distance between two probability distributions. Formally, given two distributions  and , th... |
9dc546be-aeab-42d0-9b6a-72c31af4bb24 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "One of your very early philosophers came to the conclusion that a fully competent mind, from a study of one fact or artifact belonging to any given universe, could construct or visualize that universe, from the instant of its creation to its ultimate end . . . —First Lensman If any one of you will concentrate upon one... |
6e529138-2dbb-4fc2-ba62-6b89c2e1e4e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Can we efficiently explain model behaviors?
ARC’s [current plan](https://ai-alignment.com/mechanistic-anomaly-detection-and-elk-fb84f4c6d0dc) for solving ELK (and maybe also deceptive alignment) involves three major challenges:
1. Formalizing probabilistic heuristic argument as an operationalization of “explanation”
... |
d4195975-cb37-4acc-93ef-1ed077aa1dac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Reflection Principles and Ignorance of the Future
Hi everyone,
New user here. I am learning Bayesian epistemology by working through Mike Titelbaum’s recent Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology. I’ve been learning about deference principles — principles concerning deferring to experts, where experts may inc... |
ea94836e-6e69-48a1-9204-435d649f71a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beauty and the Beast
I remember when I first realized I was hideous. Generally, my autobiographical memory is poor - but pain is the best anti-amnesic and it was among the more painful days of my life.
Before that first day of Kindergarten, my parents kept me isolated. They say they did this to protect me from ridic... |
7dec9f78-66a2-4686-96fd-67961a0bf0dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning to Play Against Any Mixture of Opponents
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) agents commonly interact in environments with other agents, whose behavior may be uncertain.
For any particular probabilistic belief over the behavior of another agent (henceforth, *opponent*), we can learn ... |
a56c5363-e58f-4db8-b3f0-cdf0aacbf9a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Deep Learning Systems Are Not Less Interpretable Than Logic/Probability/Etc
There’s a common perception that various non-deep-learning ML paradigms - like logic, probability, causality, etc - are very interpretable, whereas neural nets aren’t. I claim this is wrong.
It’s easy to see where the idea comes from. Look at... |
cf3facb9-a6a7-4a58-bede-8e6d791833f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Thoughts Are Too Dangerous For Brains to Think
[EDIT - While I still support the general premise argued for in this post, the examples provided were fairly terrible. I won't delete this post because the comments contain some interesting and valuable discussions, but please bear in mind that this is not even close... |
5a160d79-c45f-4fe9-aa2c-7a4be0431067 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Russia will do a nuclear test
A thought occurred to me, and it's so logical, I concluded that it must be true.
Russia will not detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, fearing repercussion.
Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Russia. In other words, Russia will do a nuclear test. Like North Korea did.
As far as I... |
da6d8d93-f2dd-42d1-97a6-69205ff092e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 229. The Case For Aligning Narrow Superhuman Models
and welcome to session 229
in the asa.com reading group tonight
we'll be discussing
the uh the post on alignment forum
called the case for aligning narrowly
superhuman models
by ajaya kocher
we've seen some previously previous work
by jayakotra
her work on ai timelin... |
1d754bf5-c9ab-4cb2-9920-e757d7dc1f53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Navigating the Future: A Guide on How to Stay Safe with AI | Emmanuel Katto Uganda
Hello my name is Emmanuel Katto and I'm from Uganda. Today I will share how to stay safe with AI. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we live and work, offering incredible opportunities and conveniences. However, as AI ... |
9e672078-5e3e-454d-b3b0-9e1727948254 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter #2 2019
5/4/22, 2:43 PM Center for Human-Compatible AI (CHAI) Newsletter
https://mailchi.mp/1e421759290d/jq4ushvzjd 1/5H u ma n - C o mp a t i b l e Now Available for Pre-Order on
Amazon
Stuart Russell's new book, Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and
the Problem of Control , is available for P... |
11dea935-98fb-49e3-92ab-ef0ee608fc59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcript: Testing ChatGPT's Performance in Engineering
This is a supplement to an article I wrote elsewhere, to provide the complete transcript of an interaction with ChatGPT.
I evaluated ChatGPT's performance by tasking it with real-world problems I encounter in my work as an applications engineer.
Main takeawa... |
4e3af9f2-6bf8-4e12-93b9-a0b4813807da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bayesian reasoning
According to its advocates, Bayesian reasoning is a way of seeing the world, and our beliefs about the world, in the light of [probability theory](https://arbital.com/p/1bv), in particular Bayes's Theorem or [Bayes's Rule](https://arbital.com/p/1lz). This probability-theoretic way of seeing the wor... |
3fb48ba2-a4f1-4d65-9a7e-b7724ee42f21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels - all fun and games
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels - all fun and games
WHEN: 19 April 2014 12:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Rue des Alexiens 55 1000 Bruxelles
(Because of a scheduling conflict with the Berlin community meetup, April's meetup will not be on the second Saturday of the month. ... |
be78350c-5205-48db-a262-29b3c70264e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Changing Face of Twitter
[NOTE: This post has been edited extensively to account for key info I had missed.]
As we move to ban TikTok, and as we use that move as an excuse to pass a new supercharged Patriot Act for the entire internet, every other social network including Twitter moves to transform itself into Ti... |
545b2309-aea2-443d-813e-3b2878cb4d29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prescriptions, Paradoxes, and Perversities
[WARNING: I am not a pharmacologist. I am not a researcher. I am not a statistician. This is not medical advice. This is really weird and you should not take it too seriously until it has been confirmed]
I.
I’ve been playing around with data from Internet databases that agg... |
3a61e0f2-ad11-42bb-be69-829b622ae3e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Uses of Fun (Theory)
Today's post, The Uses of Fun (Theory) was originally published on 02 January 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Fun Theory is important for replying to critics of human progress; for inspiring people to keep working on human progress; for refuting religious arguments ... |
c2445303-6012-4987-b320-1791a2eeaa6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All knowledge is circularly justified
Many philosophers have tried to find the foundations of our knowledge, but why do we think there are any? The framing of foundations implies a separate bottom layer of knowledge from which everything is built up. And while this is undoubtedly a useful model in many contexts, why s... |
205959e4-1128-468d-a9a8-e55b08ce49cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DIY Deliberate Practice
In the spirit of growth and self-improvement, I recently attempted to apply Ericsson’s principles of deliberate practice to my own growth goal: speeding up my writing. If you're unfamiliar with the minutia of Ericsson's methods, don't worry, I was in the same boat — and hence my initial goal ha... |
2875e479-2b50-4db2-8bd4-6616b05cf1de | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Alignment Research Engineer Accelerator (ARENA): call for applicants
TL;DR
=====
Apply[**here**](https://airtable.com/shrYsHmqcrIurFONE)for the second iteration of ARENA!
Introduction
============
We are excited to announce the second iteration of ARENA (Alignment Research Engineer Accelerator), a 6-week ML ... |
c49c6f73-fa9f-40b4-abab-77192d4ebaef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reflections on Trusting Trust & AI
**Reflections on Trusting Trust & AI**
======================================
The goal of the post is to highlight the necessity for mechanistic interpretability from an information security perspective:
### **Background**
In 1984, Ken Thompson authored a seminal paper on informat... |
f80fdfbf-3862-4322-afde-5055e473878d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zach Weiner on video game violence
See the comic here.
And the red button below:
What are your thoughts on this? |
3883e3e8-bde6-4d8a-b540-7d993f002a8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
STORY (skippable)
You may have experienced a meteoric rise... |
99ac0a76-6878-4bbf-843e-e9a97de36e0e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Giving Tuesday 2019
**Update January 25, 2020**: $77,325 was donated to MIRI through Facebook on Giving Tuesday. $45,915 of this was donated within 13.5 seconds of the Facebook matching event starting at 5:00AM PT and was matched by Facebook. Thank you to everybody who set their clocks early to support us so generousl... |
6a93e91b-e78c-420e-9716-57fdce61ea14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we the Wolves now? Human Eugenics under AI Control
For thousands of years, humans have selectively bred animals to enhance desirable traits. Dogs, originally wolves, were bred for hunting, guarding, herding, and companionship. Over generations, we shaped them to be smarter, more obedient, or even just cuter. The m... |
900d709e-9f74-491c-a5bb-07a23c437ce7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Total Tech Wars
Today's post, Total Tech Wars was originally published on November 29, 2008. A summary:
> Unpleasant situations can arise if people believe that the development of some sort of AI is likely to be a big win for the developers, and a big loss for everyone else. Avoid the possibility of a ... |
ccb6258c-72e6-4261-9c43-fb3b26516401 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Summarizing books with human feedback
To safely deploy powerful, general-purpose artificial intelligence in the future, we need to ensure that machine learning models act in accordance with human intentions. This challenge has become known as the *alignment problem*.
A scalable solution to the alignment problem needs... |
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