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4b284edd-8b8c-4db9-8874-b0ad465c0fd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trigger-Action Planning
Epistemic status: Established and confirmed
There has been a tremendous amount of research on “implementation intentions” since their development by psychologist Peter Gollwitzer in the late 1990’s. A meta- analysis of 94 studies involving 8461 participants found that interventions using imple... |
7c4400d9-66fc-452c-aacf-3a2cc4a09b38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Followup to: When (Not) To Use Probabilities, How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?
While trying to answer my own question on "How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?" I realized that I'm horrendously inconsistent with respect to my stated beliefs about disaster risks from the Large Hadron Collider... |
e4b3007c-44a1-4804-8bde-ba3f0202a1fa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | May 2015 decision theory conference at Cambridge University
MIRI, [CSER](http://cser.org/), and the philosophy department at Cambridge University are co-organizing a decision theory conference titled [**Self-Prediction in Decision Theory and AI**](http://www.phil.cam.ac.uk/events/decision-theory-conf), to be held in t... |
1616323f-8cc7-4919-93b6-7909c9a166a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which textbook would you recommend to learn decision theory?
Eliezer talks a lot about decision theory in his sequences, e.g. the Aumann agreement theorem or the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem. From what I've seen so far, decision theory looks extremely interesting.
Which textbook in decision theory would yo... |
ef9f29e2-de2b-477f-bc37-809665153aba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress and preservation in IDA
Overview
This post arose out of my attempts to understand IDA and ways it could fail. It might help you do the same and could provide useful vocabulary for discussing desiderata for IDA.
We want IDA to satisfy progress---decomposition should make answering questions easier---and prese... |
f551166b-7d06-4d2f-9080-567df4306945 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence
Follow-up to: Against Modest Epistemology
----------------------------------------
I’ve now given my critique of modesty as a set of explicit doctrines. I’ve tried to give the background theory, which I believe is nothing more than conventional cynical economics, that... |
46618146-89f4-4333-a72b-3e2b7ffc3479 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Development phase unpredictable
Several proposed problems in [advanced safety](https://arbital.com/p/2l) are alleged to be difficult because they depend on some property of a mature [agent](https://arbital.com/p/2c) that is allegedly hard to predict in advance at the time we are designing, teaching, or testing the age... |
878d3d04-4444-412b-86c6-dab70aed986c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much does cybersecurity reduce AI risk?
AI is here, and AGI is coming. It's quite possible that any work being done now will be futile in comparison to reducing AI risk.
This is one of those things that's unsettling for me as someone who did a Ph. D. in a non-AI area of computer science.
But one of the main vect... |
10ff2ef0-abfb-4cc5-9292-2884aafbc6a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social and Board Games
WHEN: 09 December 2014 07:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Google Tel Aviv
We're going to have a meetup on Tuesday, December 9th at Google Israel's offices, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal ... |
746e3b79-c690-4f1a-9d2f-0a3c89caea72 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Notes on "Can you control the past"
*The following is a (lightly edited version of a) series of notes I sent Joe Carlsmith about his essay,* [Can you control the past?](https://handsandcities.com/2021/08/27/can-you-control-the-past/)*. It's addressed to Joe, but it seems worth publishing here* [*while I'm on the topic... |
46dc3aed-a5ab-4ac5-a56d-97d4d5594050 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Jitters No Evidence of Stupidity in RL
*Epistemic status: Pretty sure about core, not about edges*
A while ago, I noticed a possible bias in how I evaluated reinforcement learning agents. It tended to cause me to revise my estimation of their intelligence downwards, after I viewed a video of them in action.
I've s... |
947ad8b3-7cc1-4ea3-914e-debb975add79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 1/27/22: Let My People Go
The moment’s here. My people are all the people. It is time to let my people go.
While case counts in many places remain high, we are on the way back down the mountain. The hospitals will hold. People can choose, based on their preferences and situation and the local conditions, whethe... |
e877070c-eeaa-4421-a38b-f8fd5bfc3d0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The effect of horizon length on scaling laws
The scaling of optimal model size with compute is a key input into the biological anchors framework for forecasting transformative AI. In particular, the "effective horizon length" introduces a multiplier into this scaling law that can have a big effect on forecasts.
This ... |
5f197a0d-69f1-4644-8a50-cebe892b73a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Righting a Wrong Question
When you are faced with an unanswerable question—a question to which it seems impossible to even imagine an answer—there is a simple trick which can turn the question solvable.
Compare:
* "Why do I have free will?"
* "Why do I think I have free will?"
The nice thing about the second ques... |
2830a2eb-5bf4-4e6a-83f5-61adef285f55 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Summary: we don't understand why programmers are paid so well. If
you're a programmer, there's enough of a chance that this is temporary
that it's worth explicitly planning for a future in which you're laid
off and unable to find similarly high-paying work. Programmers are paid surprisingly well given how much work it... |
a3e441f7-32ef-40ee-8e32-b1b5e6d28d58 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Alignment 2018-19 Review
Preamble
========
#### What this post is
This is a review post of public work in AI alignment over 2019, with some inclusions from 2018. It has this preamble (~700 words), a short version / summary (~1.6k words), and a long version (~8.3k words). It is available as a Google Doc [here](htt... |
8fa219eb-543f-4df7-be40-941abe898bd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI-12 and AGI-Impacts - late places available
There are still some places available in the Winter Intelligence Multi-Conference, a dual conference including AGI-12 (the Fifth Conference on Artificial General Intelligence), followed by the AGI impacts conference. The impacts conference will about the safety, risks and... |
c6c0a988-75a6-4962-9075-8d0f32fcfb61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | School Daze
In our educational system, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. The children who have committed no crime, and the adults who prosecute the offenders. These are their stories.
We need to close the schools to slow the spread, they said. But what profit us to close the sch... |
b8ff608e-78cb-4239-b02a-9ec72f896771 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NIH Solicitation: Basic research on decision making
The NIH recently announced a solicitation for Basic Research on Decision Making: Cognitive, Affective, and Developmental Perspectives. This is an R01, which means you aren't going to get it unless you have a team, with members who already have a bunch of publication... |
8ece1963-f3ba-46df-ba86-79a54c4d23f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond Statistics 101
Is statistics beyond introductory statistics important for general reasoning?
Ideas such as regression to the mean, that correlation does not imply causation and base rate fallacy are very important for reasoning about the world in general. One gets these from a deep understanding of statistics 1... |
d5f5dc79-d48d-40cf-8d1b-fd696255a1a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | do not hold on to your believed intrinsic values — follow your heart!
do not hold on to your believed intrinsic values — follow your heart!
---------------------------------------------------------------------
i posit the following framework for thinking about [intrinsic values](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrum... |
9976f2ec-5b70-41d4-89d0-1ea1735fde1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactuals about Social Media
Response To (Marginal Revolution): Counterfactuals about Social Media
See also: Against Facebook, Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action
The idea that the primary problem with such programs is ‘they make political fights weird’ or that ‘they enable censorsh... |
c8578969-82fe-4bec-8e96-e284d111a246 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would a thriving progress movement look like?
In recent essays I’ve outlined the intellectual-historical need for a progress movement, and the core ideas that I think the budding 21st-century progress movement is based on.
What would a thriving progress movement look like, in terms of activities, programs, and i... |
1aaa707d-4ae4-441b-b431-38ff32248452 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | -
|
936a1fee-6a81-4692-8c2c-bc3c8ac70679 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Reasoning with Unsong Theodicy means we shouldn't destroy the universe
(Contains major Unsong spoilers.)
A while ago I made the argument that if we assume God only allows the universe to exist if it contains net positive good, and we assume the goodness of a universe is normally distributed, most universes a... |
40cd4d2d-3936-4268-9b11-7474b8bcbc57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utility is relative
This is something that probably feels obvious, but has a big impact on my thought process.
Calculating a utility function
It's often helpful to calculate whether something has more benefits that costs. Call it a utility function, cost-benefit analysis, or whatever you want. A guy offers me ten do... |
75882a5f-d154-4993-a3b0-a2a3d41dd20a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How AI could workaround goals if rated by people
There are some suggestions on how to align AI with human values based on having operators rate AI's actions.
There is always a possibility that operators are unaligned to other people's values themselves; however, there is also a second risk.
1. (Way of tricking the ... |
10d1fe0f-8e46-4443-9e25-5ce44421209a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental convergence in single-agent systems
Summary of the sequence
Over the past few months, we’ve been investigating instrumental convergence in reinforcement learning agents. We started from the definition of single-agent POWER proposed by Alex Turner et al., extended it to a family of multi-agent scenarios th... |
435cf3bc-07fd-4995-8e94-ec136331df4e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Pragmatic-Pedagogic Value Alignment
1 Introduction
---------------
The accelerating progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics is bound to have a substantial impact in society, simultaneously unlocking new potential in augmenting and transcending human capabilities while also posing significant challenge... |
ff3d6830-f3df-48f7-8f32-644f682c9baa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What words should be shorter in the rational dictionary?
I read some linguistics books a while back, and more recently I've been reading (against my better judgement) Mad Investor Chaos and the Woman of Asmodeus. So, I've been thinking about word length and concept importance a lot.
Question 1: Should we be picking ... |
96f7e101-8fdb-491a-b808-488cd4315583 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When does rationality-as-search have nontrivial implications?
(This originated as a comment on the post "Embedded World-Models," but it makes a broadly applicable point and is substantial enough to be a post, so I thought I'd make it a post as well.)
----------------------------------------
This post feels quite sim... |
cbb75e09-74cb-4795-8ab4-71fafa70a1fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Changing Emotions
Today's post, Changing Emotions was originally published on 05 January 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Creating new emotions seems like a desirable aspect of many parts of Fun Theory, but this is not to be trivially postulated. It's the sort of thing best done with superin... |
c493ab41-e48c-450e-a7e7-c4f1615d5367 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 324: Machiavellian AIs; LLMs and political campaigns; Facebook makes an excellent segmentation model
**Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.**
[Subscribe now](h... |
04146e86-1e34-497d-9be1-daa8de099b40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are good institutes to conduct a research-based Masters in ageing research?
I'm very flexible on location, but I would like it to be a 1-year degree |
8f092848-602a-4880-a31f-b8429452d5d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tyler Cowen's challenge to develop an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk
On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk.
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model... |
01a38a71-b4cf-4eea-98c2-03483268ff3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video/animation: Neel Nanda explains what mechanistic interpretability is
Nice little video - audio is Neel Nanda explaining what mechanistic interpretability is and why he does it, and it's illustrated by the illustrious Hamish Doodles. Excerpted from the AXRP episode.
(It's not technically animation I think, but I ... |
9f1b407f-8145-4cc2-aaa9-1a96108b7e0a | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1044
Thanks to Arun Jose, Joseph Bloom, and Johannes Treutlein for feedback/discussions. Introduction The release of AutoGPT prompted discussions related to the potential of such systems to turn non-agentic LLMs into agentic systems that pursue goals, along with the dangers that could follow. The relation of s... |
371eaaa4-7017-4781-b61c-1ed392ecea8d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services
Epistemic status: Quick and dirty. A surface level dive into a particular aspect of AI governance carried out over the course of one morning.
Context
-------
>
> The U.S. House Committee on Armed Services is a standing committee of ... |
0d5da112-ba4c-4a87-b49d-5d6fb8fecd1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Scott Aaronson on Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity
Scott Aaronson has published a preliminary version of his long essay titled 'Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity'. His announcement blog post has some interesting comments, and he welcomes suggestions there. I ... |
10c1b43e-6a50-45ed-a05d-54b6563fc780 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post83
Lewis Smith*, Sen Rajamanoharan*, Arthur Conmy, Callum McDougall, Janos Kramar, Tom Lieberum, Rohin Shah, Neel Nanda * = equal contribution The following piece is a list of snippets about research from the GDM mechanistic interpretability team, which we didn’t consider a good fit for turning into a paper, b... |
324cf361-cd56-4a52-80d1-d68b4256c54b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
WHEN: 07 September 2012 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 55 walsh st west melbourne 3003 australia
Practical rationality.
This meetup repeats on the 1st Friday of each month and is distinct from our social meetup... |
768f42ec-d05e-4648-abec-97726de27623 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 200 COP in MI: Analysing Training Dynamics
*This is the sixth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability.*[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If you want to ... |
a4b8fc35-394a-4fa4-b494-29b76fa4078d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What makes math problems hard for reinforcement learning: a case study
> Abstract: Using a long-standing conjecture from combinatorial group theory, we explore, from multiple angles, the challenges of finding rare instances carrying disproportionately high rewards. Based on lessons learned in the mathematical context ... |
c6921ec2-d766-407a-9f5e-c62f2bf98b4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Letting Kids Be Kids
Letting kids be kids seems more and more important to me over time. Our safetyism and paranoia about children is catastrophic on way more levels than most people realize. I believe all these effects are very large:
1. It raises the time, money and experiential costs of having children so much th... |
29a730fb-8a20-4fe7-9426-96cb0d2fedff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for avoiding optimizing the wrong things day-to-day?
In other words, I'm interested in ways I can design my work-flow/environment/habits to avoid bike-shedding (aka the Law of Triviality), which is the behavior of "substituting a hard and important problem for an easy and inconsequential one" [1]. Examples inclu... |
7f3c30ab-df29-4f40-9efd-ae331b6ac8b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Iterating fast: voice dictation as a form of babble
Voice input has dramatically increased my writing output as well as the quality of my ideas. But I think that it's not as easy as turning on voice dictation and writing an essay from start to finish. There is a particular way or method of doing voice input that I hav... |
a0be7ece-7b45-4016-a40c-83da26665ed3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT seems overconfident to me
I've talked to ChatGPT about physics, a topic I don't know much about, except that a few things like air lift, kinetic vs static friction, osmosis, and the stuff listed in https://xkcd.com/2682/ (how paracetamol/tylenol works? why baloons electrify hair?) are somewhat "controversial" ... |
6d188c3b-552e-4662-9d20-6a7b2f02ba61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The new spring of artificial intelligence: A few early economics
|
58b2a945-08a5-4777-b023-16264c3cc288 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blind Goaltenders: Unproductive Disagreements
If you're worried about an oncoming problem and discussing it with others to plan, your ideal interlocutor, generally, is someone who agrees with you about the danger. More often, though, you'll be discussing it with people who disagree, at least in part.
The question tha... |
6a88e969-4865-4ee3-b9dd-cec4c35aa695 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategic ignorance and plausible deniability
This is the third part in a mini-sequence presenting material from Robert Kurzban's excellent book Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite: Evolution and the Modular Mind.
The press secretary of an organization is tasked with presenting outsiders with the best possible image o... |
533810f5-81bb-47e6-bff8-093e8c5803ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Roots of Progress is hiring an event manager
The Roots of Progress Institute is hiring a full-time, in-house event manager to run our annual Progress Conference (at Lighthaven!) and other events. See the job ad below, crossposted in full from the link above.
----------------------------------------
Event Manager
Fu... |
6f66f415-f76d-4119-a428-bbfa75749de6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking matcher for SIAI donation
I just donated $150 to the Singularity Institute. Would anyone be willing to match my donation (as in, donate at least $150 and tell me you did so)? A first-time donor would be ideal, but anyone would make me happy. |
fbd729cb-bae5-4a7f-8e1e-101839a30886 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some ML-Related Math I Now Understand Better
Here are some simple Math facts rarely taught in ML & Math lectures:
* SVD is decomposing a matrix into a sum of simple read-and-write operations
* There is exponentially much room for close vectors in high dimensional space
* Layer Normalization is a projection
SVD I... |
eb19a7a1-6013-480a-98e9-6830a9b58a40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Markets Are Mediocre
The fantasy of prediction markets is that we can use them for policy proposals to inform people about the consequences of their actions. Conditional prediction market "Will X lead to terrible consequence Y" theoretically can give helpful insights and prevent X from happening, if P(Y|X) ... |
95fb30db-6ea1-4707-b24d-de2f4c87d192 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Expected value
The expected value of an action is the [https://arbital.com/p/-mean](https://arbital.com/p/-mean) numerical outcome of the possible results weighted by their [https://arbital.com/p/-1rf](https://arbital.com/p/-1rf). It may actually be impossible to get the expected value, for example, if a coin toss dec... |
18627e59-fa99-468c-904f-03fa57867a69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unrunner
You see her wherever people are jogging: in Central Park, in Venice Beach, on a college town’s main boulevard. It’s important that other people are jogging, she doesn’t show up if they aren’t. You’re not sure if it’s the same girl you saw that other time, or if there are thousands of them. You never get a lon... |
5e4715cd-6680-40c9-99ff-2e31bda419f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inside OpenAI's Controversial Plan to Abandon its Nonprofit Roots
This is the full text of a post from Obsolete, a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Power, Profit, and th... |
dd8c4182-6c4e-4dcc-8e79-22d4873f9627 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #78] Formalizing power and instrumental convergence, and the end-of-year AI safety charity comparison
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/sp... |
3f849f1c-c2b5-4128-a007-fae2ad872836 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Higher-Order Forecasts
Higher-order forecasting could be a useful concept for prediction markets and forecasting systems more broadly.
The core idea is straightforward:
Nth-order forecasts are forecasts about (N-1)th order forecasts.
Abstract representation of 2nd-order forecasts. Dall-E 3
Examples
Here are some... |
2b1e96c1-082e-4314-b35b-31d3638d7780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Avoid the Conflict Between Feminism and Evolutionary Psychology?
I don't mean to claim that there should be a conflict.
Most likely the conflict arises because of many things, such as 1)Women having been ostracized for much of our society's existence 2)People failing at the is-ought problem, and committing the... |
5051e228-4225-4660-af96-c60f3de0f21c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Addressing Feature Suppression in SAEs
Produced as part of the ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2023-24 Cohort as part of Lee Sharkey's stream.
TL;DR
Sparse autoencoders are a method of resolving superposition by recovering linearly encoded “features” inside activations. Unfortunately, despite the great... |
fadd77da-0cbe-4be9-8357-7402cad7f84e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI safety as featherless bipeds *with broad flat nails*
There's a famous story about Diogenes and Plato:
> [...] when Plato gave the tongue-in-cheek definition of man as "featherless bipeds," Diogenes plucked a chicken and brought it into Plato's Academy, saying, "Behold! I've brought you a man," and so the Academy a... |
958dfceb-032c-47c8-9143-b15908ed4388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hierarchy of Evidence
There have been many hierarchies of evidence made for various fields of science. I was looking for an image of a more general hierarchy that could easily be dropped into any online conversation to quickly improve the debate. I found none that had all the features I was looking for. So I took an o... |
a4f37b06-2b45-40fa-b9f7-f4e09917f867 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | RL Course by David Silver - Lecture 9: Exploration and Exploitation
okay hi everyone
so
um lecture nine today we're going to
come back to something which probably
most of you have been thinking the back
of your mind surely we can do something
better which is the question of
exploration exploitation
so so far we've loo... |
8830cb21-c50c-4d28-aad4-dfcd634cf77b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] "Fewer than X% of Americans know Y"
How many times have you heard a claim from a somewhat reputable source like "only 28 percent of Americans are able to name one of the constitutional freedoms, yet 52 percent are able to name at least two Simpsons family members"?
Mark Liberman over at Language Log wrote up a... |
40ea216a-d6c0-40ff-9729-11c11774c4b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Encourage premature AI rebellion
Toby Ord had the idea of AI honey pots: leaving temptations around for the AI to pounce on, shortcuts to power that a FAI would not take (e.g. a fake red button claimed to trigger a nuclear war). As long as we can trick the AI into believing the honey pots are real, we could hope to tr... |
cc362881-cb72-47b4-a26c-f558ecb30ce2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
This is a thread for displaying your probabilities of an existential catastrophe that causes extinction or the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.
Every answer to this post should be a forecast showing your probability of an existential catastrophe happening at any give... |
11d6f902-adad-44e0-bb93-49ee81d68241 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Policy-Based vs Willpower-Based Intentions
Been thinking about what it means to set an intention lately. I think I’ve found a distinction between policy-based intentions and willpower-based intentions.
Policy-based intention
Policy-based intention-setting is a lot like writing a computer script and running it.
For... |
a2fd6e7b-fafe-458f-9379-fe00adf6aa95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Attributing to interactions with GCPD and GWPD
*This post provides background, motivation, and a nontechnical summary of the purely mathematical* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06686*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06686)*.*
*Coauthors (alphabetical): Chris MacLeod, Jenny Nitishinskaya, Buck Shlegeris. Work done mostly wh... |
af163cc8-51f3-4117-b6c8-96e7332eeee7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Akrasia and Shangri-La
Continuation of: The Unfinished Mystery of the Shangri-La Diet
My post about the Shangri-La Diet is there to make a point about akrasia. It's not just an excuse: people really are different and what works for one person sometimes doesn't work for another.
You can never be sure in the realm o... |
5bf085dc-cccc-4c18-8e57-fd15e9297903 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels meetup
WHEN: 17 March 2012 11:15:00AM (+0100)
WHERE: Museum of Natural Sciences Rue Vautier 29 B-1000 Brussels
The last meetup was a success and we'll make this one even better. If you couldn't make the previous meetup consider dropping by. (gett... |
f950c0c9-1595-439d-81a8-8cadce56664b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Would We Prefer AGI To Be Conscious?
[Music]
so thanks everybody I know this meetings
all about collaboration and cooperation
but I just wanted to inform the other
panels that this is in fact the better
the best one so just sort of fair
warning I'm Andrew Sarris and I'm joined
with Sascha Brown Helen toner Bart's
Ullm... |
60b6f2df-26aa-4868-b535-444dcb69c229 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Habermas Machine
This post is a distillation of a recent work in AI-assisted human coordination from Google DeepMind.
The paper has received some press attention, and anecdotally, it has become the de-facto example that people bring up of AI used to improve group discussions.
Since this work represents a particular ... |
b7ef3a36-e8ab-4d28-9cd0-2b0f95de0f89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] IBM to set Watson loose on cancer genome data
http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/03/ibm-to-set-watson-loose-on-cancer-genome-data/
Can anyone more informed about Watson or Machine Learning in general comment on this application? Specifically, I'm interested in an explanation of this part:
> [...] the Nation... |
a7a595d1-b022-48b7-8bec-399401472557 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Could Roko's basilisk acausally bargain with a paperclip maximizer?
The idea of Roko's basilisk is that it's a friendly AI that acausally blackmails humans into working on alignment.
This was judged to not be effective because humans were too dumb to acausally bargain and there are acausal defenses to blackmail.
H... |
f45cfd04-59ca-4d95-a9b7-13bd64ef9d04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Absolute Authority
Today's post, Absolute Authority was originally published on 08 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Those without the understanding of the Quantitative way will often map the process of arriving at beliefs onto the social domains of Authority. They think that if Scien... |
e7efbb52-4b9e-4a6e-968f-bf15a2de84ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2010s Predictions Review
Ten years ago, lesswrong users made predictions about the 2010s. Review them here. |
6fdeb95c-066a-484c-8476-98ec421ca5da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dear Self; We Need To Talk About Social Media
Last year I discovered, much to my chagrin, that always-on internet socializing was costly for me. This was inconvenient both because I’d spent rather a lot of time singing the praises of social media and instant messaging, and because we were in the middle of a global pan... |
0509a21c-63d6-441e-8a0b-500f19300768 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alex Irpan: "My AI Timelines Have Sped Up"
Blog post by Alex Irpan. The basic summary:
> In 2015, I made the following forecasts about when AGI could happen.
>
> * 10% chance by 2045
> * 50% chance by 2050
> * 90% chance by 2070
>
> Now that it’s 2020, I’m updating my forecast to:
>
> * 10% chance by 2035
> * 50%... |
19750b05-910a-4553-b933-a347c9984c8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chatbot convinces Belgian to commit suicide
Hi all
This post is a rough translation of an article that was published today on the website of the Belgian newspaper De Standaard. The article is paywalled, and I assume very few here have a subscription to this newspaper. I tried 12 foot ladder, but it didn't work on thi... |
f29dd5e6-3b1f-4f3f-a742-01e314299615 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "What the hell is a representation, anyway?" | Clarifying AI interpretability with tools from philosophy of cognitive science | Part 1: Vehicles vs. contents
AI interpretability researchers want to understand how models work. One popular approach is to try to figure out which features of an input a model detects and u... |
d3b36a08-88e8-44b2-8303-aeb3c7c0a4ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepMind team on specification gaming
Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity |
7d9026f4-c334-412c-b76c-009721898d2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamentally Flawed, or Fast and Frugal?
Whenever biases are discussed around here, it tends to happen under the following framing: human cognition is a dirty, jury-rigged hack, only barely managing to approximate the laws of probability even in a rough manner. We have plenty of biases, many of them a result of adapt... |
fa6448b9-cf9e-454d-a7dc-0a04399a37e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Simple Solow Model of Software Engineering
Optional background: The Super-Simple Solow Model
Software is economic capital - just like buildings, infrastructure, machines, etc. It’s created once, and then used for a (relatively) long time. Using it does not destroy it. Someone who buys/creates a machine usually pl... |
80ce620a-9fe9-4df6-a663-13f84ddc8f12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Paper] All's Fair In Love And Love: Copy Suppression in GPT-2 Small
*This is a accompanying blog post to work done by Callum McDougall, Arthur Conmy and Cody Rushing as part of SERI MATS 2023. The work was mentored by Neel Nanda and Tom McGrath. You can find our full paper at* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.04625.*](ht... |
26aa25b9-2dcf-4292-b20c-4ff403e24fd8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Ethical Considerations for AI Researchers
1 Introduction
---------------
A quick scan of recent papers covering the area of AI and ethics reveals
researchers’ admirable impulse to think about teaching intelligent agents human
values [[1](#bib.bib2 "Reinforcement learning as a framework for ethical decision making")... |
568596f4-3694-4884-aa29-0d10a8e70650 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Virtues related to honesty
Status: musings. I wanted to write up a more fleshed-out and rigorous version of this, but realistically wasn't likely to every get around to it, so here's the half-baked version.
Related posts: Firming Up Honesty Around Its Edge-Cases, Deep honesty
What I mean by 'honesty'
There are nuan... |
2b906614-b36e-4135-9cfa-4218f7847938 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | “Reframing Superintelligence” + LLMs + 4 years
**Background**
--------------
In January 2019, FHI published *Reframing Superintelligence,*[[1]](#fn85plkbsx4qr) a book-length technical report on prospects for advanced AI. OpenAI published the first paper on GPT-2 a month later. Advances since then have been strange an... |
4240a7db-fbdb-4def-a120-9893c09f676a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamental Uncertainty: Chapter 1 - How can we know what's true?
N.B. This is a chapter in a book about truth and knowledge. It is the first draft. I have since revised it. You can find the most up-to-date info/version on the book's website.
It's 1 a.m.. You're arguing with a stranger on the internet about the meani... |
720de879-0984-4760-8c6d-9221114a9025 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should we go all in on existential risk? - Considering Effective Altruism
Apparently, at a recent EA summit Robin Hanson berated the attendees for giving to more than one charity. I think his critique is salient: given our human scope insensitivity, giving all your charity-money to one cause feels like helping with on... |
656aac3e-b606-4763-a068-8a3011ce65e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the longest a sentient observer could survive in the Dark Era?
Periodically I look at this graph, and I'm like, "holy shit, that is so much Nothing. Wut. Like, they converted it to log-scale so it would fit into my brain and it's still so much Nothing, Jezus Christ."
Eliezer's Dath Ilan verse has this song for... |
bbcef6fb-ff88-481e-8971-213825b5b566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memory Decoding Journal Club: Synaptic architecture of a memory engram in the mouse hippocampus
Join Us for the Memory Decoding Journal Club!
A collaboration of the Carboncopies Foundation and BPF Aspirational Neuroscience
This time, we’re diving into a groundbreaking paper:
"Synaptic architecture of a memory engra... |
f00a5807-a9d4-444d-bcc3-e88ef9bc972b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agreeing to Disagree: towards a better understanding of agreeableness
Note: this is from my personal blog here.
My sister (hi Lindsay) and I are very different people. Give Lindsay an hour with 15 people, and she will introduce you to her 15 new best friends. Give me an hour with 15 people, and I might remember one o... |
81c8f722-8d2e-471b-b892-0815cfcc17f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
WHEN: 03 February 2017 08:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20
Welcome to the next Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library!
Our plan:
* A talk about learning from mistakes.
* Fall... |
cf8523fa-f1d4-4952-9114-c1b7aed7ef02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 18 May 2012 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: see mailing list, Carlton VIC 3053
All are welcome (especially new people!) this Friday 18 May from 7pm at my place for our monthly social meetup. Join our google group for the ad... |
c6608f12-2f1b-49a7-b1ed-2f7629407b16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #154]: What economic growth theory has to say about transformative AI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[th... |
ec79cfff-71e4-4d2f-82bd-9a012b1eea8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tapping Out In Two
I'm one of those people who feels personally called out by xkcd's "Duty Calls" ("someone is wrong on the internet").
(Not as much as I used to. At some point I stopped reading most of the subreddits that I would argue on, partly for this reason, and Hacker News, for unrelated reasons, and now I don... |
4a460944-af13-4786-874f-f5b6f4cf9f94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assorted thoughts about abstraction
Epistemic status: Exploratory + I'm not an expert here. Still, I'm reasonably confident that I'm onto something.
Let's talk about levels of abstraction. I have an example that I think would be helpful.
It comes from the first computer science lecture that I ever attended. I think... |
0a4ff950-0b20-47ac-8881-aabdbded8802 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Forecasting Dictionary (Forecasting infrastructure, part 1)
This post introduces the AI Forecasting Dictionary, an open-source set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms. It is the first part in a series of blog posts which motivate and introduce pieces of infrastructure inte... |
e8780875-3297-4e78-9efc-e0af3d5d4be7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which biases would you like to keep?
It probably wouldn't be an unalloyed good for me to overcome ALL the biases. I overestimate my future emotional reactions to winning or losing, and I'd like to keep that bias because it helps me win and not lose. I remember only good things about the past, and I'd like to keep that... |
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