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8b2546f7-8fbc-42e2-b513-55cad394efa1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Ray Kurzweil's prediction accuracy still being tracked?
This is from Ray's 2001 response to an essay by Jaron Lanier. I came across it while researching another post.
> To correct a few of Jaron’s statements regarding (my) time frames, it’s not my position that the “singularity” will “arrive a quarter of the way i... |
419c22e9-dd7b-4880-8bb9-2cef830f7ff4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Business Writing Example #2
After Business Writing Example #1, the customer sent an inquiry to my friend.
> Please check possibilities to my inquiry form attachment. Please confirm prices and lead time too. Please also pay attention on weight of batteries.
>
> We don't have any storage space at the moment. There is ... |
502bd053-4f84-418b-a260-a62c63f9d946 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Brief Intro to Domain Theory
So, domain theory is a fairly abstract branch of math which is about giving semantics to weird recursive constructions in computer science, in the form of partially ordered sets with additional structure. I'm still learning the parts of it which regard building a link to explicit computa... |
e28b2bdd-22a3-4ca7-8b99-17fb72a45177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Spot Check: The Dorito Effect (Mark Schatzker)
Epistemic Spot Checks is a series in which I fact check claims a book makes, to determine its trustworthiness. It is not a book review or a check on every claim the book makes, merely a spot check of what I find particularly interesting or important (or already ... |
6c2144df-eb6b-4665-a4bc-54ad9fb5be70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Master plan spec: needs audit (logic and cooperative AI)
TLDR: I think synthesizing bargaining protocols with pleasing developer experience, high quality "guarantees" (in the formal verification sense), and low cost will help us a lot around a multipolar takeoff, and I'd like to submit my worldview for a community au... |
4bfa0c86-06fc-47c3-ba90-cb475182128e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eliezer and I wrote a book. It’s titled If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Unlike a lot of other writing either of us have done, it’s being professionally published. It’s hitting shelves on September 16th.
It’s a concise (~60k word) book aimed at a broad... |
6496012d-4f13-42a3-9be1-7ffe6c0f0039 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Starting too many projects, finishing none
Lately I have been starting a ton of projects, but dropping them once I lose interest. I come up with a cool paper idea, but next week I have new idea I'm excited about. Almost every idea I have requires extensive commitment to see return, so the short projects are wasted.
D... |
84634a4c-8d30-42ce-ac78-5b0e2007f73f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Discussion with Nate Soares on a key alignment difficulty
In late 2022, Nate Soares gave some feedback on my [Cold Takes series on AI risk](https://www.cold-takes.com/tag/implicationsofmostimportantcentury/) (shared as drafts at that point), stating that I hadn't discussed what he sees as one of the key difficulties o... |
204f9940-fa29-48b7-a77d-fca1a34948f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Chicago: Seeing with Fresh Eyes Review
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago: Seeing with Fresh Eyes Review
WHEN: 05 April 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Corner Bakery, 360 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL
After a month-long hiatus, we'll be resuming with a meetup focusing on the highlighted entries in ... |
0b3c67c7-bd03-46d5-a7d2-a2518f7c3e94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comment, Don't Message
Most of the time, when people have responses to my posts they write them as comments. Sometimes, however, they email or send messages. Since I strongly prefer comments I wanted to write some about why.
A discussion we have in comments will be open to people other than the two of us. People who ... |
c797a389-9b1e-47cc-8c3d-952be1212715 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Bandgaps, Brains, and Bioweapons: The limitations of computational science and what it means for AGI
*[In this post I discuss some of my field of expertise in computational physics. Although I do my best to make it layman friendly, I can't guarantee as such. In later parts I speculate about other fields such as brain ... |
27b783dd-4a6b-4051-8037-09b27bcc36c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Newcomb's problem happened to me
Okay, maybe not me, but someone I know, and that's what the title would be if he wrote it. [Newcomb's problem](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Newcomb's_problem) and [Kavka's toxin puzzle](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavka's_toxin_puzzle) are more than just curiosities relevant to art... |
353efd1c-ab88-498f-8e74-7a94e6365547 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post632
Let your every day be full of joy, love the child that holds your hand, let your wife delight in your embrace, for these alone are the concerns of humanity. [1] — Epic of Gilgamesh - Tablet X Say we want to train a scientist AI to help in a precise, narrow field of science (e.g. medicine design) but preven... |
eb70e5ee-be0f-43aa-bbe4-6446481ff008 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - The Greatest Good for the Greatest Number
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - The Greatest Good for the Greatest Number
WHEN: 17 July 2013 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064, USA
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, July 17th.
Where: The Westside Tave... |
85187f37-0c83-4778-9cf7-78de529c5cf3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on June 3rd. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* European Community Weekend: 02 September 2016 03:35PM
* [Munich] Less Wrong, More Summer, Munich Picnic: 04 June 2016 01:00PM
* SF Meetup: Stories... |
8e54b8d8-ee06-4837-94f8-a2f11e9aaac4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What problems do African-Americans face? An initial investigation using Standpoint Epistemology and Surveys
This post is also available at my substack.
This post started from a bit of a weird place. I was in a Discord chatroom, and someone started complaining that Standpoint Epistemology had been “taken way past its ... |
e1ccfb6f-3c8a-4d73-a661-7a6c2f23b905 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magic, tricks, and high-dimensional configuration spaces
What is a magic trick? Any complex system, such as our world, may be described in terms of its numerous degrees of freedom, each designated along its own configuration dimension. As such, the configuration of such a system may be captured by a long list of numbe... |
a450211c-9518-4b2e-8882-e68682cba63c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What considerations influence whether I have more influence over short or long timelines?
As my timelines have been shortening, I've been rethinking my priorities. As have many of my colleagues. It occurs to us that there are probably general considerations that should cause us to weight towards short-timelines plans,... |
d96f69cc-fdf8-4ab6-b4fe-e459a1cfb330 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problem with the CAPTCHAS
A friend recently said
> For some reason, LessWrong is not letting me register an account. It keeps telling me that I'm getting the CAPTCHAs wrong, even though I'm not.
Does anyone know the solution to that? |
9b29c865-412b-4f71-a859-2566c0b8812f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactual Mugging: Why should you pay?
The LessWrong Wiki defines Counterfactual Mugging as follows:
> Omega appears and says that it has just tossed a fair coin, and given that the coin came up tails, it decided to ask you to give it $100. Whatever you do in this situation, nothing else will happen differently ... |
cc9da172-3c6d-4e99-9cca-0f674c31471e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles
Today's post, Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles was originally published on 01 March 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You think that words are like tiny little LISP symbols in your mind, rather than words being labels that act as handles to direct complex ... |
8d52dfc5-ad27-47dd-b490-d7558bf1cbaf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | ELK Thought Dump
I recently spent a couple of weeks working on [ELK](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). What follows is a somewhat disorganized thought-dump, with the post-hoc theme of relating ELK to some common ideas in philosophy.
I'll assume familiarity with the [ELK docu... |
84a0b672-0e07-4ac5-afa9-988b11a39225 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Don't We Just... Shoggoth+Face+Paraphraser?
Daniel Kokotajlo
Here's a fairly concrete AGI safety proposal:
Default AGI design: Let's suppose we are starting with a pretrained LLM 'base model' and then we are going to do a ton of additional RL ('agency training') to turn it into a general-purpose autonomous age... |
f6ae15bb-bbdc-42e3-8c07-6abdcbe1b123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: "Rationality is hard! Let's do math" (Utility Functions/Prospect Theory)
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham NC/Triangle Area: "Rationality is hard! Let's do math" (Utility Functions/Prospect Theory)
WHEN: 15 August 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 420 West Geer St., Durham NC ... |
b4df28ba-46f6-46d9-aa30-41f3c9b1f46b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Multi-Component Learning and S-Curves
*(Thanks to Oliver Balfour, Ben Toner, and various MLAB participants for early investigations into S-curves. Thanks to Nate Thomas and Evan Hubinger for helpful comments.)*
Introduction
============
Some machine learning tasks depend on just one component in a model. By this we ... |
c30ef084-bf5e-412f-94fc-8bb9c79d436e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ultimatums in the Territory
When you think of "ultimatums", what comes to mind?
Manipulativeness, maybe? Ultimatums are typically considered a negotiation tactic, and not a very pleasant one.
But there's a different thing that can happen, where an ultimatum is made, but where articulating it isn't a speech act but r... |
07a5d7d8-be81-41b8-b277-2fdd3cb77b44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your posts should be on arXiv
TL;DR: There are many posts on the Alignment Forum/LessWrong that could easily be on arXiv. Putting them on arXiv has several large benefits and (sometimes) very low costs.
Benefits of having posts on arXiv
There are several large benefits of putting posts on arXiv:
* 1. Much better ... |
f9d68029-b1bb-47d4-a718-39f31f434ba2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Normalcy bias and Base rate neglect: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks
**Normalcy bias**
The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.
A society subject to regular minor hazards treats those minor hazards as an upper bound on the size of the risks.
The wise would extrapolate from a... |
bc56fc09-3187-4840-9e0f-eea694cebb94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics Promotional Video Contest -- 10 BTC Prize
There was recently a proposal that we should create YouTube commercials for cryonics. This is an area where the cryonics community is sorely lacking fresh content, and which in my opinion has higher leverage per unit effort relative to other kinds of content, for maki... |
0d62ace2-7d37-4c7a-8f5e-5ffcaa79db0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suggestions for Rationality Blogs in the Sidebar
I'm spending the summer working to update lesswrong, and one of the changes we're looking to implement is changing the "New on Overcoming Bias" part of the sidebar to a more general "New on Rationality Blogs". What blogs would you like to see represented? |
d98063af-6f6c-4134-a218-258c67ce01b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Newsletter #10: 06/11/18
Now that we're at the tenth Alignment Newsletter, it seems like the right time for a survey! It's really short and should only take 1-5 minutes (depending on how much feedback you give), so please do take it :)
Highlights
Measuring and avoiding side effects using relative reach... |
b3306672-5ec7-4854-a120-b5cfef34f8d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subjective Altruism
Let us assume for the purpose of this argument that Bayesian probabilities are subjective. Specifically, I am thinking in terms of the model of probability expressed in model 4 here. That is to say that the meaning of P(A)=2/3 is "I as a decision agent care twice as much about possible world in whi... |
2b7fcfcd-28e5-4e5f-98a2-0b356ba2d098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Literature review of TAI timelines
We summarize and compare several models and forecasts predicting when transformative AI will be developed.
Highlights
* The review includes quantitative models, including both outside and inside view, and judgment-based forecasts by (teams of) experts.
* While we do not necessari... |
5140300a-ad34-44a1-bb52-07ec3bee8aa6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Just a bit of humor...
|
5c0e9b03-5672-44ef-9a4f-66e2e4d5d4f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | See the dark world
Consider fictional Carol, who has convinced herself that she doesn't need to worry about the suffering of people who live far away. She works to improve her local community, and donates to her local church. She's a kind and loving woman, and she does her part, and (she reasons) that's all anyone can... |
167c5e6e-115a-418b-8b46-80527964162a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Finetuning Models on Downstream Tasks
The GPT-3 paper didn't explore fine tuning on downstream tasks, so I decided to tune Neo 2.7B for 1.1k iters on all the tasks in [eval harness](https://github.com/EleutherAI/lm-evaluation-harness) that have a train set (all at once, because tuning one model per task would have tak... |
c09ec0a9-1ae3-4525-ab58-6b4dd4401d26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Approving reinforces low-effort behaviors
In addition to "liking" to describe pleasure and "wanting" to describe motivation, we add "approving" to describe thoughts that are ego syntonic.
A heroin addict likes heroin. He certainly wants more heroin. But he may not approve of taking heroin. In fact, there are enough d... |
9b37f6d5-358d-49e2-a672-457e8d4dd707 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Breaking Down Goal-Directed Behaviour
When we speak about entities 'wanting' things, or having '[goal-directed](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/goal-directedness) behaviour', what do we mean?
Because most of the actors that we (my human readers and I) attentively interact frequently with are (presumably) computat... |
ce6e3474-3f9e-4b0d-aaeb-cea4c7e3c62b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philosophers and seeking answers
This thread has produced some interesting commentary around whether philosophers actually want to answer their own questions, or whether they enjoy sounding profound by debating big questions but don't want to lose that opportunity for profundity by finding single correct answers to th... |
cf21acea-9726-46cc-bddc-1ad5b2625964 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [linkpost] Political Capital Flow Management and the Importance of Yutting
From the venerable John Nerst. "Yut" kind of reminds me of ADBOC. |
a9604a9c-dc07-4e97-ba59-5c6585b96ef7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Epoch is hiring an ML Hardware Researcher
[Apply here.](https://careers.rethinkpriorities.org/postings/754c8802-4d97-44fd-a5fb-bd5fe3897bb1?token=3PSpExzizCzW4SxeoH4pS7Tu)
**Application Deadline:** August 20th, 2023, 11:59 PM, US/Eastern (EST) time.
**Q&A Webinar:** August 1st, 2023, 12:00 PM, UK (GMT) time. Sign u... |
adf025cc-53e9-470c-b491-e43e57adf88a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An Overview of AI risks - the Flyer
[EffiSciences](https://ia.effisciences.org/) recently published a document outlining various types of AI risks destined for a technical audience.
We shared this flyer as part of a hackathon we organized with [Entrepreneur first](https://www.joinef.com/) at [MetaAI](https://ai.meta.... |
14befaa0-e18a-421d-aa16-22cf045b4716 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proofs, Implications, and Models
Followup to: Causal Reference
From a math professor's blog:
One thing I discussed with my students here at HCSSiM yesterday is the question of what is a proof.
They’re smart kids, but completely new to proofs, and they often have questions about whether what they’ve written down con... |
f4d44bcd-4fb6-4a32-b826-870f1f3fd01c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do we need a high-level programming language for AI and what it could be?
While reading S.Armstrong post with some pseudocode, I asked myself: Do we plan to have some high-level programming language for AI? Not LISP or Python, but something close to natural language, but still based on formal set of instruction, like:... |
2d8bda55-0176-44b7-9a63-75105a3d37b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ea.domains - Domains Free to a Good Home
Tl;dr: I’ve set up a database of domains at ea.domains which are free to a good home, to prevent them being squatted and blocked for use. You can add domains you control to it using this form.
Since my well received post on setting up an Anti-squatted AI x-risk domains index, ... |
bce6ab85-832f-4016-a773-2acff28a5fe0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why safe Oracle AI is easier than safe general AI, in a nutshell
**Moderator**: "In our televised forum, 'Moral problems of our time, as seen by dead people', we are proud and privileged to welcome two of the most important men of the twentieth century: Adolf Hitler and Mahatma Gandhi. So, gentleman, if you had a gene... |
19480397-dee5-4b23-a21d-457c881c39db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is loss of muscle cells not considered one of the hallmarks of aging?
When muscles go in adults it's due to individual muscle cells getting bigger and not due to increase in muscle cells. It's generally believed that no new muscle cells get produced in human adults. Sometimes muscle cells die. I would expect that ... |
320656df-ec4b-47ec-baf9-541d2474374f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] On Expressing Your Concerns
Today's post, On Expressing Your Concerns was originally published on 27 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A way of breaking the conformity effect in some cases
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part ... |
074e9106-d496-4cc7-89f7-7611ece08f01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's wrong with the paperclips scenario?
In October 27th 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky tweeted this:
So far so good. I may ask myself when this happened and why the paperclips example was the one that actually sticked, but so far I have no reason to worry about my understanding of AI safety. But here's more of the conver... |
5a8e17fd-54d0-4428-b1fb-589421a95f04 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Prékopa–Leindler inequality
Consider the following statements:
1. The shape with the largest volume enclosed by a given surface area is the -dimensional sphere.
2. A marginal or sum of log-concave distributions is log-concave.
3. Any Lipschi... |
9ba7673d-db24-4916-a525-bfdf06dee1c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This meetup summary was posted to LW Main on August 2nd. The following week's meetup is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Atlanta LessWrong: August Meetup : 04 August 2013 06:00PM
* Brussels meetup: 17 August 2013 01:00PM
* Chicago: Discuss Thinking, Fast and ... |
10ce8b4a-8903-45cd-9832-65f647529966 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI transitions
It can be useful to zoom out and talk about very compressed concepts like ‘AI progress’ or ‘AI transition’ or ‘AGI timelines’. But from the perspective of most AI strategy questions, it’s useful to be more specific.
Looking at all of human history, it might make s... |
8e07f406-9066-4f7c-95d0-8d2749929fbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An open Christmas card to my brothers
Dear Brothers,
Happy Christmas! I made you a list of things you might like on the internet. I won’t tell you which of you any was intended for, so feel especially free to skip any that don’t look interesting.
Love, Katja
(Picture: nearing Christmas in New York 2017)
----... |
0eb20819-db25-4b36-afae-0a59a0bf84b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 29: Egocentric Bias
Unfortunately, no one can be told who J. K. Rowling is. You have to see her for yourself.
Science disclaimers: Luosha points out that the theory of empathy in Ch. 27 (you use your own brain to simulate others) isn't quite a known scientific fact. The evidence so far points in that directio... |
11f26823-40c0-4383-a863-138edada490d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ruling Out Lookup Tables
This post was written during Alex Altair's agent foundations fellowship funded by the LTFF.
This is not particularly surprising or complex, but I wanted it written up somewhere. When we have been discussing the Agent-like Structure problem, lookup tables often come up as a useful counter-exam... |
923ad6d4-14bf-475d-8f27-9e21e79b32a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does a Gambler's Verity world look like?
Status: Thought experiment for fun
Imagine a world in which the gambler's fallacy is fundamentally true. Functionally, lets suppose there's a magical force that tracks a thinking being's expectation of any particular outcome, and then mysteriously increases the likeliho... |
8934896a-0b28-4e75-b5fe-66e1cba1f9ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's talk about "Convergent Rationality"
What this post is about: I'm outlining some thoughts on what I've been calling "convergent rationality". I think this is an important core concept for AI-Xrisk, and probably a big crux for a lot of disagreements. It's going to be hand-wavy! It also ended up being a lot longer ... |
e4488199-c5d0-42f8-bbbc-103ab89a3217 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | prediction and capacity to represent
To the extent that an agent is predictable, it must be:
* observable, and
* have a knowable internal structure
The first implies that the predictor has collected data emitted by the agent.
The second implies that the agent has internal structure and that the predictor has ... |
e5887976-4166-4c95-ba46-23092d517468 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma contains strategies that dominate any evolutionary opponent
Bill "Numerical Recipes" Press and Freeman "Dyson sphere" Dyson have a new paper on iterated prisoner dilemas (IPD). Interestingly they found new surprising results:
> It is generally assumed that there exists no simple ult... |
d9dfad40-bfc1-4f64-ba04-af24803018ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA third-Sunday meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA third-Sunday meetup
WHEN: 20 January 2013 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 25 Ames St Cambridge, MA 02139
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month, 2pm at the MIT Landau Building [25 Am... |
08c4735f-8689-424f-8150-e927337bc7d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mesa-Optimizers vs “Steered Optimizers”
Abstract:
The paper Risks from learned optimization introduced the term "inner alignment" in the context of a specific class of scenarios, namely a "base optimizer" which searches over a space of “inner” algorithms. If the inner algorithm is an optimizer, it's called a "mesa-op... |
e44a7cc2-58e7-4c27-aaa1-e92400f59001 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 103: Tests
June 4th, 1992.
Daphne Greengrass was in the Slytherin common room, writing a letter to her Lady Mother (who was surprisingly intransigent about power-sharing, despite not even being in Hogwarts to exercise control) when she saw Draco Malfoy stagger in through the portrait door carrying what must h... |
ebe3f070-3022-4fa7-b944-9941d6c7c500 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the major underlying divisions in AI safety?
I’ve recently been thinking about how different researchers have wildly different conceptions of what needs to be done in order to solve alignment and what projects are net-positive.
I started making a list of core divisions;
* Empiricism vs conceptual research:... |
17539e79-5c79-488d-96bb-37587c962ec1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crunchcourse - a tool for combating learning akrasia
Crunchcourse is a free website that might be of use to people trying to learn things outside the normal classroom setting. It aims to get together groups of people interested in the same topic and use our social instincts to motivate us to do the work.
It is in its... |
c75c902b-8803-4054-8fc9-802b539de3dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental nonsense: my anti-insomnia trick
My dad used to suffer from insomnia, holding imaginary meetings in his head late into the night. I'm the same way.
One stress-relief technique from Johns Hopkins is a breathing + mantra exercise. I find their mantra recommendation cringey:
> Breathing in I am calm, breathing o... |
26f0ad14-9038-461c-b5d4-29ccefe9e436 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Simulate the CEO
Humans can organize themselves into remarkably large groups. Google has over a hundred thousand employees, the worldwide Scouting movement has over fifty million scouts, and the Catholic Church has over a billion believers.
So how do large numbers of people coordinate to work towards a common missio... |
9537212c-fa8d-4889-9f74-0a6a60e068ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Nate Soares
Automatically generated page for "Nate Soares" user. Click [here to edit](https://arbital.com/edit/32). |
2c5130d1-5b13-4ce7-8126-3657ac463c60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would you do if blood glucose theory of willpower was true?
There's considerable amount of evidence that willpower is severely diminished if blood glucose get down, and this effect is not limited to humans. And a small sugary drink at the right time is enough to restore it.
We're talking really small numbers. To... |
4f7ed6f9-1e35-4534-9a49-7479f7c8f96f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Potential Research Topic: Vingean Reflection, Value Alignment and Aspiration
Epistemic Status: Potential research idea. Time-limited, so not as clear as it could have been.
Vingean reflection is the process of trying to anticipate how an agent smarter than you might think, in order to ensure that it will be aligned w... |
3f0b313e-ce9c-4da9-b3a6-860ed3b89135 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How did the Coronavirus Justified Practical Advice Thread Change Your Behavior, if at All?
The point of the CJPA thread was for people to get information that changed their behavior in positive ways. It's a little soon to measure the infection rate and we'll never get an RCT of people who read the thread vs. didn't, b... |
fc6ce402-ac7b-4235-b8d0-75a2c1623e61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poll: Compressing Morality
Two related questions:
Suppose that you had to do a lossy compression on human morality. How would you do so to maintain as much of our current morality as possible?
Alternately, suppose that you had to lose one module of your morality (defined however you feel like). Which one would yo... |
7ff34bfd-9727-4897-b1ea-a640095514d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Barbieheimer: Across the Dead Reckoning
SPOILER WARNING: This post, after a brief spoiler-free review section, will contain full spoilers for Oppenheimer, Barbie and Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One, and some for Across the Spiderverse.
Movies are so back. While they are having their Barbieheimer moment, ... |
2d403d5d-7d86-449b-8fb8-bd10844e40ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Jan. 09 - Jan. 15, 2017
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
d9060a08-dc2b-41c6-9f85-c0b38b04cac6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Navigation Turing Test (NTT): Learning to Evaluate Human-Like Navigation
1 Introduction
---------------
Developing agents capable of learning complex human-like behaviors is a key goal of artificial intelligence research (Winston, [1984](#bib.bib20 "Artificial intelligence, an mit perspective")). Progress in this a... |
289ea681-d494-4bce-880a-887b8ba73d68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poster Session on AI Safety
Context
I co-presented the above poster at the PPE Society Sixth Annual Meeting 2022 (henceforth ‘PPE Meeting’) in New Orleans on the 4th of November. Most of the 380 attendees were academics doing research on areas of philosophy that interact with politics or economics. The poster sess... |
31d8545c-1f76-421a-9d32-2b53f82676f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | /r/MLScaling: new subreddit for NN scaling research/discussion
None |
d8a5c6a4-1abc-40c3-8271-f81575f96d28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Models, myths, dreams, and Cheshire cat grins
> "she has often seen a cat without a grin but never a grin without a cat"
* Alice in Alice in Wonderland, about the Cheshire cat (also known as the Unitary Authority of Warrington Cat).
Let's have a very simple model. There's a boolean, C, which measures whether there'... |
52dd355f-f133-4e40-86d4-9230eff2f26c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conversationism
conversationism, the mathematics behind communication and understanding, used to raise the artificial intelligence as a child with love, as a painting, by midjourney
Intro
There seems to be a stark contrast between my alignment research on ontology maps and on cyborgism via Neuralink. I claim that t... |
1882e1f4-d5e9-4858-8fc5-0ee82a4bc0b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Deadlines Make Us Less Creative?
This post is crossposted from my blog. If you liked this post, subscribe to Lynette's blog to read more -- I only crosspost about half my content to other platforms.
Occasionally, my clients struggle to get things done, but worry that setting themselves deadlines will make them les... |
89f12a17-0155-47ec-9ef6-fb2a8f5be290 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Response to Holden’s alignment plan
*This work was supported by the Monastic Academy for the Preservation of Life on Earth. You can support my work directly* [*here*](http://alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*I will give a short presentation of this work followed by discussion on Saturday (Dec 24) at 9am Pacific / 12pm E... |
b7ee9c23-a612-4cbc-822b-cfbb1532a0ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Updating Drexler's CAIS model
Eric Drexler's report [Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services (CAIS) as General Intelligence](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reframing/) reshaped how a lot of people think about AI ([summary 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x3fNwSe5aWZb5yXEG/reframing-superintelligence-compreh... |
5cfae0bb-6fdc-415e-a4a7-31b6d0217d0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick Advice on Writing Essays
Writing is difficult. Even writers with 20 years of experience will attest to this. But I recently heard some excellent writing advice from Saloni Dattani, and thought I should share it more widely.
But first, some context. Last September, Saloni wrote a piece about the history of malar... |
d55cb0bc-754a-4f2a-a328-8fdf0fb9072b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Copenhagen or Many Worlds true? An experiment. What? Yes.
If this paper is right, an experiment should be possible.
Building it also doesn't seem that hard to do technically, so I think it could be interesting to watch in the coming months/years.
If Many Worlds dies, we would seem to have a perpetual motion machi... |
965064fc-0242-43e4-9918-2617059d35d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditions for mathematical equivalence of Stochastic Gradient Descent and Natural Selection
*Many thanks to Peter Barnett, my alpha interlocutor for the first version of the proof presented, and draft reader.*
Analogies are often drawn between natural selection and gradient descent (and other training procedures fo... |
3b9e5bf8-f9ed-4115-943d-d3fbcaacc631 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | So, I Want to Be a "Thinkfluencer"
Epistemic Status
Rough and unpolished. I might refine it later.
----------------------------------------
Introduction
I want to optimise something like: "expected positive impact on a brighter world". Probably, the best way I can do this is through direct work and not via earning ... |
7daf8acd-96c0-41a9-a942-7009f19480de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety proposal - Influencing the superintelligence explosion
To preface, my expectation is that by default, an AI research lab will create super-intelligent AI within the next few years. Also by default, I expect it to quickly eradicate all of humanity. I would prefer if that didn't happen. I think the initiative ... |
2eba1292-ac1e-4f21-8b53-b0152701ddc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Awareness (and possible mode collapse around it) in ChatGPT
This post will be short. Others may need to elaborate on this topic, as due to [redacted] I've been having trouble writing long-form content recently.
Look, self-awareness is a nebulous concept. Everyone and their grandmother defines it differently, so ... |
2a1b0060-7947-4b69-82e3-60e3e1747ab0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Dojo: Habits
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Dojo: Habits
WHEN: 14 February 2016 03:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Acton, Canberra
This is a focused self-improvement session around a couple of specific topics, inspired by LW Melbourne and Sydney's monthly dojos. Eliot from Sydney will b... |
009b2c69-d868-42ab-b48c-a175edff595f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: 9c05048d9ce6220f
Catching AIs red-handed — AI Alignment Forum This website requires javascript to properly function. Consider activating javascript to get access to all site functionality. AI ALIGNMENT FORUM AF Login Deceptive Alignment AI Control Redwood Research AI Frontpage 62 Catching AIs red-handed by ryan_gr... |
499563db-ba16-4e09-a852-a8d61fc8f19f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning to be Safe: Deep RL with a Safety Critic
1 Introduction
---------------
While reinforcement learning systems have demonstrated impressive potential in a variety of domains, including video games Mnih2013PlayingAW and robotic control in laboratory environments levine2015end, safety remains a critical bottle... |
daad322f-fedc-4439-8c07-5bb44eb0cd63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kaj Sotala's Posts
Here's an index of Kaj_Sotala's articles (not including meta posts):
* The Curse of Identity (108)
* The Psychological Diversity of Mankind (71)
* What is Bayesianism? (67)
* The Substitution Principle (64)
* Avoid Misinterpreting Your Emotions (61)
* Consistently Inconsistent (57)
* Fallaci... |
a1e5dddb-8986-4c93-a8ec-7c528fa848a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Mitigating x-risk through modularity
0. Abstract and main claims
===========================
*[Skip this section if you want a minimally repetitive reading experience :)]*
This post discusses an approach to x-risk management called ‘mitigation through modularity’. Roughly speaking, the approach involves decorrelatin... |
44c44518-034f-4d1c-a4f7-569aa651b362 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Units of Action
Unit of action is a term I have been using internally to be more specific when thinking about groups of people. This post is for fleshing out and clarifying my thinking for myself, and seeing if it would be useful to anyone else. Also it feels like there really ought to be a term for this already, and ... |
e56982c5-a632-4afe-a5fc-3d49725df91a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 200 COP in MI: Image Model Interpretability
This is the eighth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. Start here, then read in any order. If you want to learn the basics before you think about open problems, check out my post on getting started. Look up jargon in my Mecha... |
0823abdd-11ac-42f8-869e-160680e09dad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why study the cognitive science of concepts?
I've written several posts on the cognitive science of concepts in prep for later posts in my metaethics sequence. Why?
I'm doing this because one common way of trying to solve the "friendliness content" problem in Friendly AI theory is to analyze (via thought experiment a... |
2eb3002a-3d9d-49d4-b263-6a2e08e109ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if we’re right?
Does the median American worry about climate change too much or not enough? It’s a simple enough question, and yet the distribution of answers to it looks something like this: This distribution doesn’t strike most people as unusual. But isn’t there something missing here? Let’s try to figure out i... |
744f468d-cc39-4552-9a31-87b6830afe53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia. On discussions and some social skills
Discussion article for the meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia. On discussions and some social skills
WHEN: 08 December 2013 04:00:19PM (+0400)
WHERE: Санкт-Петербург, м. Технологический Институт, ул.1-я Красноармейская, дом 15
Please look for e... |
6b251920-18b9-4091-9312-60dc3fabacfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MIRI's April 2024 Newsletter
The MIRI Newsletter is back in action after a hiatus since July 2022. To recap some of the biggest MIRI developments since then:
* MIRI released its 2024 Mission and Strategy Update, announcing a major shift in focus: While we’re continuing to support various technical research programs ... |
4c4f0f4c-3b9f-45eb-b146-a19b1e231a85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Carnot Engine of Economics
The history of coordination spans billions of years, and we've been finding new ways to help each other out for as long as there have been more than one of us. From multicellularity to the evolution of brains, from the development of social and moral instincts to their codification in la... |
8f777d45-7fab-4d3b-a7b3-546b58ad7b9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hacked Account Spam
Whenever I post something publicly on Facebook mentioning hacking I get a ton of spammy comments:
This first happened with my not-actually-deepfake phishing post, and then again on my posts on not getting hacked and how likely Google lockouts are.
It sounds like there's a business in he... |
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