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299b05b4-07ad-4c2e-86a3-c0636bd3b900 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why OpenAI projects only $174B of revenue by 2030?
1. "OpenAI has told investors it expects to reach $125B in revenue by 2029 and $174B by 2030. OpenAI expects to serve 3B monthly active users by 2030, with 900M DAUs." (from sacra.com; original source seems to be theinformation.com, but it is behind a paywall).
2. F... |
c9d32c4f-ee1c-4607-9a10-6b86f108352b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we decrease the risk of worse-than-death outcomes following brain preservation?
Content note: discussion of things that are worse than death
Over the past few years, a few people have claimed rejection of cryonics due to concerns that they might be revived into a world that they preferred less than being dead or... |
38c06a81-1188-4be9-a66c-1ab0354d765e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The slow traversal of ‘human-level’
*By Katja Grace, 21 January 2015*
Once you have normal-human-level AI, [how long does it take](http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/is-the-range-of-human-intelligence-small/ "The range of human intelligence") to get Einstein-level AI? We have seen that a common argument for ‘not long at ... |
20c5bebe-6ad4-47d4-a3da-579c42769cc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety and Neighboring Communities: A Quick-Start Guide, as of Summer 2022
Getting into AI safety involves working with a mix of communities, subcultures, goals, and ideologies that you may not have encountered in the context of mainstream AI technical research. This document attempts to briefly map these out for n... |
1a8087c1-8ab7-4e5e-89f6-139eb736892b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to navigate potential infohazards
If you're not an expert in a field that has inforisks and are unsure whether your question could be hazardous or not, where do you go?
Perhaps I am being too security minded, but I feel like typing questions into a search engine or chatbot or publicly posting does not always se... |
49ed5785-fe61-4307-96c9-d1b57dc8cf60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Jesse Clifton: Open-source learning — a bargaining approach
---
*AI systems are much more transparent to one another than humans are to other humans; they can share information about the reward functions that drive their actions. Jesse Clifton, a PhD candidate in statistics at North Carolina State University, present... |
78b65223-0fd7-4efd-b8d8-42481d6e8354 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] White House announces a series of workshops on AI, expresses interest in safety
https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/05/03/preparing-future-artificial-intelligence |
4245d004-3dc1-4ba9-ba7d-7dd1893061a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generating vs Recognizing
[A distinction to be aware of is when a task requires you to Recognize (i.e. verify, note, observe, etc.) something versus Generate (i.e. brainstorm, create, compose, etc.) something. These tasks can seem quite similar, but I claim that Recognizing is both easier and less valuable. Three exa... |
87a36b06-9d67-42dd-b6b0-7ab061783f8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] SMBC on human and alien values
Zach nailed it, as usual, especially with his red-button punchline. |
e392dbc8-1e91-4699-9103-19fece03986f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: pedagogy goals, willpower research, community growth
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: pedagogy goals, willpower research, community growth
WHEN: 11 December 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Большая Дорогомиловская, д.5к2
Note: most our members join meetups through other channel... |
dd7493b7-f845-4606-b513-a24c9b3fc804 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | IRL 1/8: Inverse Reinforcement Learning and the problem of degeneracy
Every Monday for 8 weeks, we will be posting lessons about Inverse Reinforcement Learning. This is lesson 1.
Note that access to the lessons requires creating an account [here](https://app.grasple.com/#/course/141?access_token=3HCK4oRipeFY2ghyYMqDJ... |
70545555-64e0-4b49-8a67-af6388dfd345 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions about multivitamins, especially manganese
In Inadequate Equilibria Eliezer mentions that multivitamins may cause harm via excess manganese
> Well, because I looked up previous ketogenic Soylent recipes, and they used standard multivitamin powders containing, e.g., way too much manganese and the wrong form o... |
bdc5c2e7-d645-4efb-bf8d-64a849edd5d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Trends in algorithmic progress
Algorithmic progress has been estimated to contribute fifty to one hundred percent as much as hardware progress to overall performance progress, with low confidence.
Algorithmic improvements appear to be relatively incremental.
Details
-------
*We have not recently examined this to... |
62823256-3e24-4f45-9094-778c892793ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Troll Bridge
All of the results in this post, and most of the informal observations/interpretations, are due to Sam Eisenstat. I think the Troll Bridge story, as a way to make the decision problem understandable, is due to Tsvi; but I'm not sure.
Pure Logic Version
Troll Bridge is a decision problem which has been f... |
5f5273ef-86f7-4820-a5d8-99acbb278490 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Liability For Present And Future Robotics Technology
Abstract
--------
Advances in robotics technology are causing major changes in manufacturing, transportation, medicine, and numerous other sectors. While many of these changes are beneficial, some will inevitably lead to harm. Who should be liable when a robot cau... |
0d304dd1-59f4-44d1-9115-f3f066dfc8ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] John Carmack working on AGI
John Carmack, confirmed GOAT video game developer, is going to take a crack at AGI.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2547632585471243&id=100006735798590
|
2bbf021d-1ce0-446c-a741-6488628db166 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mini-Review: 'The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Cognitive Science'
Today I had the pleasure of wading through Oxford's new Handbook of Philosophy of Cognitive Science. The book consists of review chapters on the following topics:
* Cognition (computationalism vs. embodied cognition, mental representation)
* Cons... |
2a90f40c-bc55-4987-8e87-d141dd5e437f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Heuristics for preventing major life mistakes
Edit: If you are interested in this subject, I'd like to interview you to learn about your own experience with making difficult life mistakes. Hearing people's stories will help validate my framework and give me material for future essays. And I might be able to offer some... |
b71ba24c-38c9-4a25-aeeb-d4ce5c027042 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Embracing the automated future
> “At one of our dinners, Milton (Friedman) recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few mach... |
09c204bf-de78-4ed7-9bb2-532325a61048 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matryoshka Sparse Autoencoders
View trees here
Search through latents with a token-regex language
View individual latents here
See code here (github.com/noanabeshima/matryoshka-saes)
Alternate version of this document with appropriate-height interactives.
Abstract
Sparse autoencoders (SAEs)[1][2] break down neural n... |
99892e51-b56e-4732-9757-424c541e8c9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodhart: Endgame
I - Digression, aggression
The perspective arrived at in this sequence is almost aggressively third-person. Sure, I allow that you can have first-person stories about what you value, but these stories only rise in prominence to an outside observer if they're supported by cold, hard, impersonal facts... |
7cd57cf8-e36f-4c99-9154-e6bd65065787 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overton Gymnastics: An Exercise in Discomfort
What better way to bond with strangers than to tell them your most controversial viewpoints right off the bat? It’s basically like Cards Against Humanity for rationalists. More specifically, for the Less Wrong Community Weekend in Berlin, all participants were asked to com... |
4bed2742-a0e2-4fd2-9c1d-1dcbcdb23f8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I’m behind my eyes
Where does your mind feel like it is?
Ken Aizawa asks why we intuitively feel like our minds are in our heads, and answers by saying it’s because humans discovered early on that damaging the head disables the mind, and have passed the knowledge of their equivalence on since. This seems unlikely to ... |
f4cc963a-9a76-4f18-8b0e-fe2937f3f843 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A model of research skill
Doing research means answering questions no one yet knows the answer to. Lots of impactful projects are downstream of being good at this. A good first step is to have a model for what the hard parts of research skill are.
Two failure modes
There are two opposing failure modes you can fall i... |
103eaffd-23eb-40b5-8631-3783f813cc30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Projects I would like to see (possibly at AI Safety Camp)
I recently discussed with my AISC co-organiser Remmelt, some possible project ideas I would be excited about seeing at the upcoming AISC, and I thought these would be valuable to share more widely.
Thanks to Remmelt for helfull suggestions and comments.
... |
2ffae9c8-13b1-462b-8700-0a9f763de0a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | About Me: Background and Biases
I've been a civil servant working in state government for almost ten years. I've worked at several regulatory agencies, I take lots of civil service tests to (among other things) manage my nagging impostor syndrome, and as a result I've also had the opportunity to interview for jobs in... |
80a22fb8-c326-41c2-8a14-1ab5470017e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
> Previous: 2011, 2012-2013
“It cannot be gotten for gold, neither shall silver be weighed for the price thereof. / It cannot be valued with the gold of Ophir, with the precious onyx, nor the sapphire. / The gold and the crystal cannot equal it: and the exchange of it shall not... |
94e22498-3f43-466e-a3f6-9f92baa747d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditionals All The Way Down
(I thought about this idea on my own before Googling to see if anyone had already written it up. I found something very similar at https://projecteuclid.org/journals/notre-dame-journal-of-formal-logic/volume-50/issue-2/Justification-by-an-Infinity-of-Conditional-Probabilities/10.1215/0029... |
a8a4617c-48a0-4871-8de0-b109aff9f583 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research immersiveness
Suppose you want someone to calculate the current price of cheap computing hardware.
Alice knows roughly how much computing hardware cost a year ago, and know what the different kinds of computing hardware are, and how prices vary by time and market, and as she does the calculation she thinks t... |
0fc842f4-51f6-4b39-8baf-3362dee006da | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "You may know me as the guy who posts a lot of controversial stuff about LW and MIRI. I don't enjoy doing this and do not want to continue with it. One reason being that the debate is turning into a flame war. Another reason is that I noticed that it does affect my health negatively (e.g. my high blood pressure (I actu... |
b6caa190-319c-4d76-8336-0237eaa1b089 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Draft: The optimization toolbox
**This post is a draft, a work in progress.** Much of it will not make sense, and will not be optimized for the reader's experience. It does not necessarily reflect my current best understanding of optimization. Like the introduction draft, I'm opening it up because I've been working o... |
e4b7e2a8-6fc7-48d7-ac4a-a67d79b397b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (briefly) RaDVaC and SMTM, two things we should be doing
UPDATE: Be advised that I no longer consider SMTM to be among the things we should be doing, though I don't regret having given them an earlier try. I wish somebody else was running out and trying the sort of things that SMTM is trying, but they're bad enough ... |
f00c2d6c-9317-4ebe-a855-b8d605d85e33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Wisdom of the Crowd social learning group
The wisdom of the crowd is a unique "social learning" group, with "group projects" designed as experiments for social good. While only loosely modeled on A theoretical group able to take advantage of the crowd wisdom phenomena, the groups main focus in on a unique way to c... |
35e13889-6f08-43db-b111-8debb911955e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding Policy Gradients
|
87474780-c794-4a11-aea5-17a3eaefc45b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does TDT pay in Counterfactual Mugging?
On one hand, this old article said TDT doesn't pay. On the other hand, I imagine TDT not paying would be a slam-dunk argument for favoring UDT, which pays, and I haven't seen people make that argument. So I'm confused here. Thanks.
Edit: this wiki page explains all the jargon |
6b7dd0c2-d758-476f-a3cf-efa8fe66c320 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Question Templates
I have posted an article Question Templates on my blog. This is the start of a sequence (of sorts), and it's close to the core of Less Wrong's subject matter. |
6c0d8832-9d9d-40f4-9a23-86765aad81bb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How major governments can help with the most important century
I’ve been writing about tangible things we can do today to help the [most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) go well. Previously, I wrote about [helpful messages to spread](https://www.cold-takes.com/spreading-messages-t... |
5e7f7e21-8ecf-4f4d-92e3-cdfa103b74c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q&A with Stan Franklin on risks from AI
[Click here to see a list of all interviews]
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI.
Stan Franklin, Professor, Computer Science
W. Harry Feinstone Interdisciplinary Research Professor
Institute for Intel... |
c1a02bfc-80f3-4329-8b4c-bc32102e4a52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] The Greek Heliocentric Theory
Summary: The Greeks likely rejected a heliocentric theory because it would conflict with the lack of any visible stellar parallax, not for egotistical, common-sense, or aesthetic reasons.
I had always heard that the Greeks embraced a geocentric universe for common-sense, aesthetic... |
525d840e-08c3-4488-9029-12bfc0f05a7c | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post177
This is a linkpost for a new research paper of ours , introducing a simple but powerful technique for preventing Best-of-N jailbreaking. Abstract Recent work showed Best-of-N (BoN) jailbreaking using repeated use of random augmentations (such as capitalization, punctuation, etc) is effective against all ma... |
0bf98044-2384-4b74-8397-2176cfc62480 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Governance Problem and the "Pretty Good" X-Risk
No longer endorsed.
Like a child suddenly given awesome strength, I could have pushed too hard, and left the world a broken toy I could never repair. —The Hero of Ages
I hope we create superintelligence, and I hope it does what we want. But this would not suffice t... |
bb94640c-7ef9-4bad-8c65-e8c573fa9741 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is a paperclipper better than nothing?
Thought experiment:
Through whatever accident of history underlies these philosophical dilemmas, you are faced with a choice between two, and only two, mutually exclusive options:
* Choose A, and all life and sapience in the solar system (and presumably the universe), save for ... |
44cbc46d-85ff-4b43-909a-71fc54e48b4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Lessons Learned from Irrational Adventures in Romance
Gooey personal details alert! See also: Alicorn's Polyhacking.
Years ago, my first girlfriend (let's call her 'Alice') ran into her ex-boyfriend at a coffee shop. They traded anecdotes, felt connected, a spark of intimacy...
And then she left the coff... |
849b73bd-cbe9-4a1b-b7f8-c0e33ca6ef7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : St. Peterburg meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : St. Peterburg meetup
WHEN: 05 July 2012 07:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Saint Petersburg, Nevsky Prospect 20
We will meet at “Subway” restaurant at 19:00. Look for a table with “LW” banner, I will put it somewhere.
Topics will be:
* Rationality ... |
3cc98cae-c1ba-470d-a39b-c253f6f4d2bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for someone to run an online seminar on human learning
I'm looking for someone with a background in education and/or cognitive science to run an online seminar for non-rationalists on how humans learn things and how to efficiently teach a subject to others. A few examples of the sort of content I'm thinking of... |
d94145c9-86c2-4cb4-9097-d0a6f0aa71de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Irresistible Attraction of Designing Your Own Utopia
Epistemic status: Somewhat undirected and not very serious. The usual politics warning.
As Usual, the Story Begins in the Human Ancestral Environment
For >90% of human history (and further back, into pre-human primate history), Homo sapiens lived in small band... |
b16e8274-87cf-4d86-b5ef-d0e9e906cc64 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 327: Stable Diffusion on phones; GPT-Hacker; UK launches a £100m AI taskforce
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](https://importai.substack.co... |
69d42c39-7df8-4f05-9674-03d8d1356194 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How you can help pass important AI legislation with 10 minutes of effort
Posting something about a current issue that I think many people here would be interested in. See also the related EA Forum post.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has until September 30 to decide the fate of SB 1047 - one of the most hotly debat... |
e8f275fb-ed05-4cf7-8d71-a07c74276257 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are you working on? January 2014
Happy new year! This is the supposedly-bimonthly-but-we-keep-skipping 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines:
* Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not proj... |
76b93c60-ec58-45a6-a2a7-22662a193900 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Atari early
Deepmind [announced](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Agent57-Outperforming-the-human-Atari-benchmark) that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark. I think this is probably enough to resolve one of the predictions we had respondents make in our 2016 surv... |
3d5ce795-983b-48c0-9efa-bcfdd910cd24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schelling Points in Thing-Space
A group of frogs secedes from the Swamp Union and starts their own frog country in a neighboring pond. After some political turmoil and the beheading of any frogs that wished to go back to the swamp, Ugly Frog gathers all the remaining frogs and says they need to make a list of rules. F... |
628c88b9-3e32-4888-8ae4-b501e853f858 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some altruism anecdotes [link]
(I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, if I'm wrong please just tell me so and I'll delete the post, ok? No need to give me -20 karma. )
So, I just stumble upon this compilation of tweets from the recent tragedies in japan, with translations. Link to forum post where I ... |
e8fd585a-51eb-44ec-83ec-0e0f07a64848 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Laplace's rule of succession
Laplace's rule of succession is a commonly used heuristic in forecasting the occurence of events which have little to no historical precedents. The basic problem setup is this: suppose you flip a coin with an unknown bias N=H+T times and get H heads and T tails. We want to infer something ... |
c85867db-d27d-4fd2-afde-f44079b7371c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Link] Is the Orthogonality Thesis Defensible? (Qualia Computing)
Full title: Is the Orthogonality Thesis Defensible if We Assume Both Valence Realism and Open Individualism?
<https://qualiacomputing.com/2019/11/09/is-the-orthogonality-thesis-defensible-if-we-assume-both-valence-realism-and-open-individualism/> ([a](... |
3a2f086b-0a72-4a27-964a-a2f892bdae7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
The efficient market hypothesis applied to AI is an important variable for timelines. The idea is: If AGI (or TAI, or whatever) was close, the big corporations would be spending a lot more money trying to get to it first. Half of th... |
7bdb3f0d-7f93-45a7-a44b-cea2286d8a41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minneapolis Meetup: Saturday May 28, 3:00PM
Saturday May 28th, 3PMStarbucksCoffman Memorial Union300 Washington Avenue SE,University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Goals:
To meet and network with likeminded Minnesotans.
I'll do my best to answer any questions people have about SIAI, rationality, x-risk stra... |
3b1d641e-891e-42d3-a3c4-68af735dac30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the research speed multiplier of the most advanced current LLMs?
In Sam Altman's recent interview on Bill Gates' podcast, he said AI tools currently can speed up a programmer by about 3x. It's unclear whether he's referring to publicly available tools like copilot, or internal tools at OpenAI.
1. Does anyone... |
b07d6baf-3d0b-4906-a14f-597319a3dfdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In defence of Helen Toner, Adam D'Angelo, and Tasha McCauley (OpenAI post)
This is close to some of how I've been thinking about what happened with the OpenAI board and I'm wondering what others think.
"I argue:
1) TDM's actions have left the situation at open AI as it stands considerably better than it would have ... |
595a3d80-9656-41cc-9767-131e42be73cc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Google may be trying to take over the world
So I know we've already seen them buying a bunch of ML and robotics companies, but now they're purchasing [Shane Legg's AGI startup](http://recode.net/2014/01/26/exclusive-google-to-buy-artificial-intelligence-startup-deepmind-for-400m/). This is after they've acquired Bost... |
ea08080e-69a1-4658-9f3f-ce8695329853 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Four Futures For Cognitive Labor
I just returned from Manifest, a bay area rationalist conference hosted by the prediction market platform, Manifold. The conference was great and I met lots of cool people!
A common topic of conversation was AI and its implications for the future. The standard pattern for these conver... |
050dad1e-7e98-4901-825f-400eb49f62f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Humanist Open Mic, NYC, Wednesday August 1st
Discussion article for the meetup : Humanist Open Mic, NYC, Wednesday August 1st
WHEN: 01 August 2012 02:35:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 159 E Houston Street, New York, NY 10003
Half a year ago, I wrote extensively about the value of art, ritual and community building. S... |
d2c582ba-1cad-48cc-b635-003ee5b06a74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus Research Ideas for EAs
Peter Hurford wrote a large, very comprehensive, research agenda over on the EA Forum. Here are all the questions:
> Meta-Research
>
> 1.) Just how bad are things right now? How bad might we expect it to get? What is the current state of play and what are various plausible scenari... |
26201691-e9de-4e5a-816c-26280174ede4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Researchers studying century-old drug in potential new approach to autism
|
dd256c7f-55a0-468a-a402-3dc06ee9dc6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sums and products
Much of number theory is about trying to understand the interaction between two different structures on the integers (or the natural numbers): the additive structure and the multiplicative structure.
To clarify what I mean, consider the twin prime conjecture, one of the famous open problems in analy... |
b544f768-68b7-41cf-81c6-52e17114c617 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How to Measure Anything
[](http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/)Douglas Hubbard’s *[How to Measure Anything](http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/... |
f0e6a487-35af-4ce7-a94f-a9a6f2fbf912 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Effect pattern: Transparent updates in Elm
I don't like writing tests in Elm1. Naively, it seems like the fact that all Elm functions are pure would make it easy. But I've still never really been able to test the things I really want to.
It's possible that I'm not very good at writing tests in general. But even i... |
0bfa8a22-824d-4baa-8fd9-cb7c40b72ac2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | John Baez on Charity
Mathematician and climate activist John Baez finally commented on charitable giving. I think the opinion of highly educated experts who are not closely associated with LessWrong or the SIAI but have read most of the available material is important to estimate the public and academic perception of ... |
3b33e058-c727-4727-a55e-45e2be5eab3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The New Nostradamus
I stumbled upon an article called The New Nostradamus, reporting of a game-theoretic model which predicts political outcomes with startling effectiveness. The results are very impressive. However, the site hosting the article is unfamiliar to me, so I'm not certain of the article's verity, but a qu... |
06a97e1a-159c-4dcb-8d6f-0ebefb0bc622 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | "Beliefs" vs. "Notions"
The term "belief" is used very differently in Bayesian ML and everyday life.
**1)** In Bayesian ML, is refers to a distribution over entire world models.
**2)** In everyday life, it refers to something more like a single proposition.
I propose the term "notion" for technical use to describe... |
a630417b-018b-4096-91ab-ef6c9cbd0bbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probabilistic decision-making as an anxiety-reduction technique
One problem I run into when making decisions that impact my life substantially (say, making a big purchase) is that I spend a lot of time staring at decision becoming increasingly anxious. Usually, this is accompanied by only very minor amounts of informa... |
1014bc4d-eab2-4998-b6a8-1d3595ac24e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Psychomagic | Chapter 3: Intelligence Explosions
This is a Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality fan-fiction which contains spoilers. If you haven't, you should read or listen to Eliezer Yudkowsky's original work before reading this.
<< Chapter 2
--------------------------------... |
8fd05364-947c-4063-a2c5-15129c52c93e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Write a Thousand Roads to Rome
Epistemological Status: Pretty sure I'm on to something here, also very sure I'm restating the obvious, utterly confident that restating the obvious is the point.
Sometimes a piece of writing gets two very different responses. Half the commenters say something like "this is really obvio... |
d0c13c39-8c88-4daf-ba0d-482cde9f871f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magical Categories
> 'We can design intelligent machines so their primary, innate emotion is unconditional love for all humans. First we can build relatively simple machines that learn to recognize happiness and unhappiness in human facial expressions, human voices and human body language. Then we can hard-wire the ... |
95cc2904-2a91-49ad-aa48-7ac0f3b1df1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong Community Weekend 2023 [Applications now closed]
Update: [Applications now closed]
September 22-25th is the 10th annual LessWrong Community Weekend (LWCW). This is Europe's largest rationalist social gathering which brings together 150 aspiring rationalists from across Europe and beyond for four days ... |
b78986b4-5848-460a-9a8f-17feda2af293 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Lent is over
Rationalist Lent is over. How did it go for everyone? Did you learn anything about yourself / superstimuli / pica / etc.?
I had a pretty good time giving up porn, which I stuck to. I also masturbated much more sparingly, which had interesting and pleasant effects on my sex drive. This is part... |
25fd5c6c-c9b7-468c-8bed-36567ad8ea19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Putting Induction Into Practice
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Putting Induction Into Practice
WHEN: 09 May 2015 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
At our last meetup, we talked about a mathematical theory of how to do induction well. At this meetup, we will get s... |
9b43625b-c6e8-45e8-9fc4-14f78462958b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective on Teaching Rationality Workshops
TL;DR: I organised a series of afternoon applied rationality workshops for the Cambridge Effective Altruism group based on some core CFAR classes. These went much better than I expected them to, and seem to have added long-term value to participants. My goal in this post... |
312262be-c2cd-457a-b1f7-e35049c19809 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bermudez Interface Problem
I hope this question makes sense although given my confusion it has come out as word vomit and not a pointed question. So sorry for that.
How does commonsense psychological explanation (folk psychology) interface with the explanations of cognition and mental operations given by scientific ... |
2302ed19-ebc6-4424-a7e0-928c49e95780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brief comment on frontpage/personal distinction
I recently moved a post back from frontpage to personal blog, a decision which was followed by confusion and had some pushback. Rather than have discussion on the post about the site (i.e. about not-the-post), I've copied my comment here instead.
A short background on t... |
90af03d3-3c47-4c20-be0f-bd730b67d608 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are sensible ways to screen event participants to reduce COVID-19 risk?
This Sunday I'm co-hosting a SlateStarCodex meetup in Berlin. There currently seem to be a handful of cases in Berlin, so I'm wanting to take reasonable precautions.
I don't think canceling the event is reasonable at this point in time. At t... |
e7dada69-541d-4bae-a650-f60cdc9fb154 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Fun Theory
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Fun Theory
WHEN: 07 November 2012 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, November 7th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), located ins... |
8248b33d-e3dc-4921-ab51-35384c7e6dfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which COVID booster to get?
Any thoughts on the Novavax vs Moderna / Pfizer vaccines?
Based on what I've read, it seems like they have comparable efficacy, with the potential for less intense side effects from Novavax, so I'm leaning towards that one (having gotten Pfizer initially, then Moderna, which left me quite... |
37392035-c647-4c0e-87fd-03b350680e5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Lund Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Lund Meetup
WHEN: 12 November 2015 12:15:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Scheelevägen 15,223 63 Lund, Sweden
Hello,
we are two to three LessWrongers here and we decided to meet up a bit more regularly during the following weeks, most probably on Thursdays.
Don't hesita... |
fe3c9167-a655-4958-b182-5d59e8699837 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 'Dumb' AI observes and manipulates controllers
The argument that AIs provided with a reward channel will observe their controllers and learn to manipulate them is a valid one. Unfortunately, it's often framed in a way that feels counterintuitive or extreme, especially to AI designers. It typically starts with the stan... |
6f9afa95-adca-4c62-886f-a34daa3a8725 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Prediction Problem: A Variant on Newcomb's
**Update**: If you are interested in understanding my thoughts on Newcomb's problem, I would recommend starting with [Why 1-boxing doesn't imply backwards causation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gAAFzqJkfeSHvcwTw/why-1-boxing-doesn-t-imply-backwards-causation) and then... |
48b64893-4a5d-459c-bd7e-e526c2bf9fb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some counterevidence for human sociobiology
I love seeing counter-evidence for everything. I estimate that while most of my beliefs are true (otherwise I wouldn't believe them in the first place), a small percentage is almost certainly completely false - and I don't really have any reliable way of telling the two apar... |
ff9f2d1e-01fb-47fe-8530-f4494ae0e199 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "A Paradigm for AI Consciousness" - Seeds of Science call for reviewers
Abstract
AI is the most rapidly transformative technology ever developed. Consciousness is what gives life meaning. How should we think about the intersection? A large part of humanity’s future may involve figuring this out. But there are three qu... |
1ce6c874-4dc2-4aeb-8fcb-1816972e7585 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reward function learning: the value function
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
I've written quite a few posts about the problems with agents learning values/rewards, and manipulating the learning process. I won't be linking to those past posts, be... |
2195d112-e1ee-4bcb-87ac-05d04632860a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Profile of Eric Schadt
This article leaves me with a very mixed impression-- it's excessively gosh-wow, but it matches my beliefs that things are generally more complex than they look, and this is especially true about biology.
Schadt doesn't seem to have much web presence, which makes it harder to judge anything abo... |
d3d0f663-8301-4253-9a1a-32f77deaf4d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical?
Today's post, Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical? was originally published on 14 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You wouldn't think that it would be possible to do an experiment that told you that two particles are completely identical... |
5c9d6c19-ffad-4be6-ae8d-10389786e3d6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Deceptive Alignment
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ... |
68f50946-04a9-4d01-ae1d-dc626b5c848e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "whole brain emulation"?
[Whole brain emulation](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/whole-brain-emulation/) (WBE) or ‘[mind uploading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)’ means building a computer emulation of all the cells[^kix.1h9zcsuqyej] and connections in a human brain, and their activity.... |
80a66dc5-35e9-43c2-8b08-b233002804e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wedneday 7pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Wedneday 7pm
WHEN: 07 March 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
It's almost spring, though there is sometimes snow on the ground. Come hang out and chat w... |
446d13d8-726b-4fa6-af90-5e113d206c86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Israel LW meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Israel LW meetup
WHEN: 04 July 2013 08:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: 7 Menachem Begin st., Ramat-Gan 52681, Israel
(Gibor Sport House, 15th floor.)
The Israel Less Wrong group is meeting again. We haven't chosen the subject of the meeting yet (I will update the... |
4d1b851d-1851-44c8-a0cd-daab2b07db5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring GPT4's world model
If you ask GPT4 who's to fault for Emilia Galotti's death, it will give a perfect response. That's because there were likely hundreds of essays on this question in the training material. After all, this is a large language model. The more interesting question is on emergent knowledge: Lear... |
31d04461-e3bc-40a1-b880-320d68c21c77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ohio LessWrong in Cincinnati
Discussion article for the meetup : Ohio LessWrong in Cincinnati
WHEN: 20 January 2013 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Taft Museum of Art, 316 Pike Street
We will meet at the Taft Museum entrance. Dinner afterwards will include highly-intellectual discussion of the art. Be sure you h... |
832ba263-e5c7-4eb3-bead-15f36788f260 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chess As The Model Game
Other than Pokemon, most of my YouTube consumption is comprised of chess analysis videos. This might surprise people because I don't play chess very often these days. And when I do play chess, I'm not that good.
(My peak chess.com Elo rating was 1050 back in 2018---and surely, I've only gotten... |
c3b5f1ff-9036-4e1f-8798-d0992e1dd2c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Potential Bottlenecks to Taking Over The World
This is a fictional snippet from the AI Vignettes Day. This scenario assumes that cognition is not that taut an economic constraint. Post-AI, physical experimentation is still the fastest path to technological progress, coordination is still hard, the stock market is stil... |
0da61688-4079-42ba-9c93-d766ed23a325 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SI/CFAR Are Looking for Contract Web Developers
The Singularity Institute and the Center for Applied Rationality are looking to expand their web development team. As per usual we'd like to post this opportunity to the LW community first. All work will be on a contract basis (you quote us your hourly rate).
Perks:
*... |
18566045-6165-44e4-9a1c-48655372f5eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Heat vs. Motion
Today's post, Heat vs. Motion was originally published on 01 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> For a very long time, people had a detailed understanding of kinetics, and they had a detailed understanding of heat. They understood concepts such as momentum and elastic rebo... |
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