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b924e1a7-442a-4524-b68f-c5897b0cc5ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is to be done? (About the profit motive)
I've recently started reading posts and comments here on LessWrong and I've found it a great place to find accessible, productive, and often nuanced discussions of AI risks and their mitigation. One thing that's been on my mind is that seemingly everyone takes for granted ... |
6d3ac6c5-9b5d-41a2-8715-722f4a164b5b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | What’s been happening in AI alignment? | Rohin Shah | EA Global: Virtual 2020
hi everyone my name is Rohan Shah I'm a
sixth year PhD student at the Center for
human compatible AI at UC Berkeley
my research is generally on what happens
when you try to do deep reinforcement
learning and environments that involve
humans ... |
b0fff5ae-428b-4287-981b-0664a3e7b23f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In what way has the generation after us "gone too far"?
It's a pattern to watch an older generation consider a younger generation as, "having gone too far". From the inside it feels to me like I'm right and they are too conservative, but on the other side of the fence, believing for myself that the younger generation ... |
1fc51f8f-e483-4c87-9ab2-11ebdcef649b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wireheading as a potential problem with the new impact measure
In this post, Alex Turner introduced a new way of measuring impact. The aim was to get a definition of low impact that actually works.
It seems to me that the impact measure has potential problems, though. The first seems to be that it allows wireheading,... |
98f50204-18e0-4952-a464-2fcb9d838d4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: September 2011
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
If continuing the discussion becomes impractical, that means you win at open threads; a celebratory top-level post on the topic is traditional. |
b04e848f-acd5-47f4-bf58-fa9827355f3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Epistemic Status: Resident Expert
I’m a little late on this, which was an old promise to Robin Hanson (not that he asked for it). I was motivated to deal with this again by the launch of Augur (REP), the crypto prediction market token. And by the crypto prediction market token, ... |
7b0479a1-8e79-4a1d-938a-dd60a0c89fb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | a casual intro to AI doom and alignment
this post, intended notably for people outside of the AI alignment community, intends to convey my current perspective about AI doom and alignment and why i think those are important issues. i hold these beliefs not with absolute confidence, but with enough that i think i ought ... |
aee789a7-273e-4248-9736-cba9bc95135d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sensor Exposure can Compromise the Human Brain in the 2020s
A few days ago I finished writing [AI Safety is Dropping the Ball on Clown Attacks](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mjSjPHCtbK6TA5tfW/ai-safety-is-dropping-the-ball-on-clown-attacks-and-mind), and foolishly posted it thinking that people would read it even th... |
f083d218-8990-43d0-a51a-aa446b97cb6c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Malign generalization without internal search
In [my last post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/nFDXq7HTv9Xugcqaw/is-the-term-mesa-optimizer-too-narrow), I challenged the idea that inner alignment failures should be explained by appealing to agents which perform explicit internal search. By doing so, I argued tha... |
3583664b-4302-41f5-a622-61baca6ac47c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leveling IRL - level 1
"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, ... |
9dcaa170-0ed4-4107-9e49-f4001bb5ec01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "You're the most beautiful girl in the world" and Wittgensteinian Language Games
Wittgenstein argues that we shouldn't understand language by piecing together the dictionary meaning of each individual word in a sentence, but rather that language should be understood in context as a move in a language game.
Consider t... |
3e3eca6b-4a15-4cc7-83bf-411313e210d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying to translate when people talk past each other
Sometimes two people are talking past each other, and I try to help them understand each other (with varying degrees of success).
It’s as if they are looking at the same object, but from different angles. Mostly they see the same thing – most of the words have shar... |
223b5383-a25e-4a82-919f-6a5ada270d00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Extensionality Axiom
The axiom of extensionality is one of the fundamental axioms of set theory. Basically, it postulates the condition, by which two sets can be equal. This condition can be described as follows: *if any two sets have exactly the same members, then these sets are equal*. A formal notation of the exten... |
caf57ecb-7c8d-4937-a35e-c06d059a9eac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Restrictions that are hard to hack
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Very much in the spirit of "if you want something, you have to define it, then code it, rather than assuming you can get if for free through some other approach."
Difficult children
Suppose you have a child, that you sent to play in ... |
8ee124b2-7a00-4977-b575-d955c3d385f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Division of rational numbers (Math 0)
So far in our study of the [arithmetic](https://arbital.com/p/514) of [rational numbers](https://arbital.com/p/4zq), we've had [addition](https://arbital.com/p/55m) ("putting apples and chunks of apples side by side and counting what you've got"), [subtraction](https://arbital.com... |
d9e98f20-6869-46f3-8b35-af06f4d3d971 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Operationalizing Interpretability
[Note: This is a quick version of a post that I'll later update with more code + additional citations, but I think the brainstorming here can be useful for others. So I'm sharing just the list of questions for now.]
This blog post is my attempt to get some more clarity on how to thin... |
b55b667d-403b-4305-ba12-cc0b8d53108a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Get data points on your current utility function via hypotheticals
I've recently found that my utility function valued personal status and fame a whole lot more than I thought it did -- I previously had thought that it mostly relied on the consequences of my actions for other sentiences, but it turned out I was wrong.... |
8d1e1517-238f-4143-bc19-6f861b652f09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Bounded Rationality in Las Vegas: Probabilistic Finite Automata Play Multi-Armed Bandits.
Bounded Rationality in Las Vegas: Probabilistic Finite Automata Play
Multi-Armed Bandits
Xinming Liu
Computer Science Dept.
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY 14853
xl379@cornell.eduJoseph Y. Halpern
Computer Science Dept.
Cornell Uni... |
2d4ae3c2-1908-401f-a37d-533335fb78da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS
*Published 25 March, 2020*
We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly:
* 17 years for single-precision FLOPS
* 10 years for half-precision FLOPS
* 5 years for half-precision fused multiply-add FLOPS... |
893556ce-0ccc-4d8b-b74b-33d452166bd4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesianism naturally leads to the monotonicity principle, and I think this is a problem
**Introduction**
----------------
The [monotonicity principle](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmPFjpEibu0) is a famously uncomfortable consequence of [Infra-Bayesian Physicalism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gHgs2e2J5az... |
64e79260-06a0-4f64-bf2c-247c430b2f8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If life is unlikely, SIA and SSA expectations are similar
Consider a scenario in which there are three rooms. In each room there is an independent 1/1000 chance of an agent being created. There is thus a 1/109 probability of there being an agent in every room, a (3*999)/109 probability of there being two agents, and a... |
e2dab95d-0dca-4ca7-a3e6-902aea0946b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Top lesson from GPT: we will probably destroy humanity "for the lulz" as soon as we are able.
Forget complicated "sharp left turn" schemes, nefarious nanobots, lists of lethalities, out-of-distribution actions, failed AI boxing. As Zvi pointed out in multiple posts, like this one, if humans get unrestricted access to ... |
af5bd3de-1aa1-4da1-92df-bf444aed9b97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Art of Critical Decision Making
The Art of Critical Decision Making is a new 12-hour lecture series (audio and video) available from The Teaching Company, available as an audio MP3 download for $35. After May 14 it will cost $130. |
e27ee272-5e8c-4293-ae5a-dbc86c7dbccd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science: Do It Yourself
In the nerd community, we have lots of warm, fuzzy associations around 'science'. And, of course, science is indeed awesome. But, seeing how awesome science is, shouldn't we try to have more of it in our lives? When was the last time we did an experiment to test a theory?
Here, I will try to i... |
ad8b3f63-1fa8-4f9a-98f8-59e9feb18d0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AlphaGo variant reaches superhuman play in multiple games
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/07/alphazero-google-deepmind-ai-beats-champion-program-teaching-itself-to-play-four-hours
https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.01815
I'm posting this slightly late; the paper is from December 5.
I'd be interested to lear... |
7c4f3347-04fd-4450-92a6-4c501fe89187 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Navigating an ecosystem that might or might not be bad for the world
I have this deep sense that somehow this ecosystem will do a lot of stuff that makes the world a lot worse, and I don't know how to relate to it in a way that doesn't make my actions dominated by my effect on that, and I expect that I will either con... |
1a72ad98-7bec-4d2a-8e0d-f4d196505326 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is Everyone So Boring? By Robin Hanson
This is from the blog Overcoming Bias.
These excerpts describe the overall model. It is only due to Robin Hanson's writing skill that the dynamic can be described this concisely, yet still be covered so thoroughly and intuitively. This is a classic example of galaxy-brained ... |
8cd90c01-7e13-43ac-8a8e-942224f5195f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Open Source – Getting Started [warning: not up-to-date]
update: since posting this a few years ago, our architecture and practices have changed slightly. I've fixed some things but don't haven't checked all the pieces here to see if they're still accurate.
LessWrong 2.0 is open source, but so far we haven’t done a... |
a4277265-71db-4e76-ae9a-b609c55bf1dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reading habits/techniques/strategies (second post on the topic)
,
I'm looking to build up a “tool-box” of strategies/techniques/habits for reading non-fiction effectively and efficiently.
I’ve already posted on this topic; below, I’ve tried to distill/summarize some of strategies shared by Less Wrong users and thos... |
36262fec-ebbc-45d7-8919-01e287db12ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Leveraging Sparse Linear Layers for Debuggable Deep Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
As machine learning (ML) models find wide-spread application, there is a
growing demand for interpretability: access to tools that help people
see *why* the model made its
decision.
There are still many obstacles towards ach... |
bbb487f2-e1d0-4f24-829d-50b9e9ff5421 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Hypersphere Analysis Part 2: Nonlinear Effects & Interactions
Following on from Part 1, again don't read this if you're trying to avoid spoilers!
Nonlinear Effects
The correlation analysis we did in Part 1 can find simple effects. If the Evil Squelchers break our machines, we will be able to see a negative ... |
fc58dcf5-4581-4192-9de4-c7352243a85c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Hyperbolic takeoff
The debate over "slow" versus "fast" takeoff is one of the more controversial subjects in the AI safety community. The question is roughly about whether AI development will be more gradual, or whether once an AI achieves what could be called "general intelligence", it will be able to rapidly grow it... |
4b536ce6-f2f9-4c38-b8c2-c14318394d19 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Briefly, what are the major AI safety organizations and academics working on?
### **Industry**
[Anthropic](http://anthropic.com):
- [Honest Harmless Helpful Language Model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00861) [Language Models] (Askell, 2021) - Using prompting as a baseline to study the idea of aligning an LLM. Basic a... |
8012f387-4f7c-4584-be5e-cb9231e879bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Sparse Skill Coding: Learning Behavioral Hierarchies with Sparse Codes.
Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2020
SPARSE SKILL CODING : LEARNING BEHAVIORAL
HIERARCHIES WITH SPARSE CODES
Anonymous authors
Paper under double-blind review
ABSTRACT
Many approaches to hierarchical reinforcement learning aim to identi... |
68ce188b-7405-484c-81cd-02f3d2d299cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hard work is irritating
My understanding of getting into a flow state (or “being in the zone”) was completely wrong.
Authors like Steve Kotler and Csíkszentmihályi describe achieving flow as a structural problem. To achieve flow we must match our skills to the challenges in front of us, they write. If the challenges ... |
b77cb4d1-0690-496b-a803-faaa0e570de3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem
In previous pieces, I argued that there's a real and large risk of AI systems' developing dangerous goals of their own and defeating all of humanity - at least in the absence of specific efforts to prevent this from happening. I discussed [why it could be hard to b... |
cf3ed1bb-f6a0-4b95-b3cf-857272627759 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interested in working from a new Boston AI Safety Hub?
TL;DR: Submit your expression of interest for working at a potential Constellation/LISA-type AI safety co-working space in Boston!
We’re trying to gauge interest for a potential new AI safety hub in Boston (specifically in Cambridge, MA). This project would crea... |
fa71c2dc-ced6-4833-ba62-b13ca05d4bd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lean Startup Reading Comprehension Quiz
Some colleagues and I recently read the Lean Startup together, and thought it'd be nice to have some reading comprehension questions to check if we took away the same things. Jacob made some questions, and I thought they might make an interesting LW post for other people who had... |
3d5033e1-4390-4a2d-bd67-910986c1d96f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Double indifference is better indifference
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Note: this post replaces and supersedes the previous one which is now obsolete.
Hacking utility indifference
Utility indifference was a technique for corrigibility was an attempt to allow an AI to safely change its values, wi... |
c59c9b20-4583-489a-99d0-bcfbf23b00d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fourth Purdue Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Fourth Purdue Meetup
WHEN: 01 February 2013 06:50:11PM (-0500)
WHERE: hicks library -purdue
Same Time. Same place as the previous meetups.
I'll be re-teaching some of what I learned about operant conditioning at the CFAR rationality workshop.
Disc... |
e33b4fb0-8909-43f7-8863-9444e8d328c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calibrating With Cards
In this post, I'll try to bring together two things I enjoy: rationality and magic. Like Hazard, I've also practiced close-up magic for a good amount of time now. After recently seeing Tyler Alterman make a Facebook post about estimations and System 1, it occurred to me that there are a few cali... |
79462fed-3974-437b-b731-abc1b84c2535 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jean Tirole on Adaptive Biases
Jean Tirole, who just won the Nobel Prize in Economics, is mostly known for his work applying game theory to Industrial Organization (the subfield of economics that studies how firms compete and set prices). But he wrote very broadly, including on some subjects likely of interest to peop... |
39f4139e-2091-4df3-9546-ac55da2210d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Call for Constant Vigilance
Related to: What Do We Mean By "Rationality?"
Rationality has many facets, both relatively simple and quite complex. As a result, it can often be hard to determine what aspects of rationality you should or shouldn't stress.
An extremely basic and abstract model of how rationality works ... |
ffef97cd-23fa-45f4-b2a5-291a118f4607 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Parents
Less Wrong Parents
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&fromgroups=#!forum/less-wrong-parents
Recently the NYC LW/OB community had two babies and is expecting a third.
I created a google group as a way of sharing information, primarily thinking of the NYC community.
I posted my pre-baby purchase... |
740e1ede-03a0-4a10-b893-3ee005a1ecb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | December 2022 updates and fundraising
Harlan Stewart and Katja Grace*, 22 December, 2022
News
New Hires and role changes
In 2022, the AI Impacts team has grown from two to seven full time staff. Out of more than 250 applicants, we hired Elizabeth Santos as Operations Lead, Harlan Stewart as Research Assistant, and... |
8dfed0b2-ae8c-4177-bc1b-eab0c25b8cf5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Killing Recurrent Memory Over Self Attention?
Should we kill recurrent memory over self attention ❓
Spending most of my time on time series problems, I often think about the consequence of memory and the sequential nature we are exposed to in the physical world.
Memory is the idea for a learning algorithm to store a... |
d2e8d8e3-9148-4fb3-b6b5-5e470b478c6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "Carefully Bootstrapped Alignment" is organizationally hard
In addition to technical challenges, plans to safely develop AI face lots of organizational challenges. If you're running an AI lab, you need a concrete plan for handling that.
In this post, I'll explore some of those issues, using one particular AI plan as... |
3174f22e-49ae-42ef-9f2c-1f0ef0d5a9f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bug: The "Load all comments" link doesn't work
The "Load all comments" link that's at the bottom of articles with more than 500 comments doesn't work.
|
4cc5f4a3-299c-42fa-a712-5794fcc6fd14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | "Go west, young man!" - Preferences in (imperfect) maps
Many people are very nationalistic, putting their country above all others. Such people can be hazy about what "above all others" can mean, outside of a few clear examples - eg winning a total war totally. They're also very hazy on what is meant by "their country... |
49934010-82b7-42ed-910d-29453ef3987a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Status as a Service (Done Quick)
This is a summary of an excellent but long blog post, Status as a Service (StaaS) — Remains of the Day (eugenewei.com). I wanted everyone to have access to the perspectives and ideas laid out in the post, but the barrier to entry is currently a 20,000 word essay. The main thing knowing... |
0c2d53bc-2832-4548-ae27-4e8fb7100d9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Third Time: a better way to work
HOW CAN you be more productive? Instead of half-working all day, it’s better to work in focused stints, with breaks in between to recover.
There are various ways to do this, but here's my new technique, called Third Time. The gist of it is:
* Work for as long or as short as you like... |
3849457b-cf98-40ba-be8c-1f2513644f46 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Meaningful human control over automated driving systems (F. Santoni de Sio) - 1st AiTech Symposium
there you go so hi there how are you
today
so my name is Philip Poisson Toni the
CEO I'm a colleague of your room from
the novanet dissection philosophy of tu
Delft and I will tell you something
about this project I've ... |
7d0dc39c-1438-4329-8d84-9eb9fd18ed61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Are Experiments Possible?" Seeds of Science call for reviewers
Are Experiments Possible?
By [redacted]
Abstract: Randomized controlled experiments are a cornerstone of many fields, especially when trying to establish a cause-effect relation. Conversely, the quality of evidence arising from natural experiments and o... |
2e7048ac-540d-47ce-95a5-b98b4de0d598 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for Comments on AI-related Prediction Market Ideas
I'm drafting some AI related prediction markets that I expect to put on Manifold. I'd like feedback on my first set of markets. How can I make these clearer and/or more valuable?
Question 1: Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibilit... |
b781ec5c-8e9c-4ed7-8581-d6c2b36cf915 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SSC Phoenix Rises Again!
SSC Phoenix is no longer dormant! We are still using the Google Group for the majority of our planning/coordination, so do check out that link. |
f2715b37-d9c0-414b-a3c1-25c816f3a536 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A few thoughts on a Friendly AGI (safe vs friendly, other minds problem, ETs and more)
Friendly AI is an idea that I find to be an admirable goal. While I'm not yet sure an intelligence explosion is likely, or whether FAI is possible, I've found myself often thinking about it, and I'd like for my first post to share a... |
2d5590b4-dbfe-47dd-936f-7b8c34ab772c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditioning Generative Models
This post was written in response to Evan Hubinger’s shortform prompt below, and benefited from discussions with him.
> Suppose you had a language model that you knew was in fact a good generative model of the world and that this property continued to hold regardless of what you conditi... |
871d27d7-4095-4760-8a6c-4e6830d934e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Into AI Safety - Episode 0
As I mentioned in a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ozDWnEChJwuB5L5wg/documenting-journey-into-ai-safety), I am starting a podcast which will follow me as I begin my career in AI safety. Today I published episode 0, an intro which covers the reasons that I am making this seri... |
1063530c-6020-4e03-b90a-7255dae30fd3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Geoffrey Miller on Cross-Cultural Understanding Between China and Western Countries as a Neglected Consideration in AI Alignment
[Geoffrey Miller](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/geoffreymiller) is professor of evolutionary psychology, and a long-time participant in the effective altruism (EA) movement. He h... |
ccf484a6-aac1-4e32-829a-302a657c2fdd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers
> "Individual organisms are best thought of as adaptation-executers rather than as fitness-maximizers."
> —John Tooby and Leda Cosmides, *The Psychological Foundations of Culture.*
Fifty thousand years ago, the taste buds of *Homo sapiens* directed their bearers to the ... |
96e02640-cffa-4c7a-b19e-75a61e0c1a59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems
[Note: I made a short video of myself explaining this document here.]
It's common for groups of people to want to evaluate specific things. Here are a few examples I'm interested in:
* The expected value of projects or actions within projects
* Research papers, on specific r... |
43691334-3333-4db4-b97e-725ee0e46913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting newsletter #2/2025: Forecasting meetup network
Highlights
* Forecasting meetup network (a) looking for volunteers. If you want to host a meetup in your city, send an email at forecastingmeetupnetwork@gmail.com.
* Caroline Pham moves up to Chairman of the CFTC. She is much friendlier to prediction markets... |
81d2aee3-74f9-429f-86ec-3fe3bc329a42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding and avoiding value drift
I use the shard theory of human values to clarify what value drift is, how it happens, and how it might be avoided by a highly intelligent agent—even if that agent doesn't have any control over its future experiences. Along the way, I give a shard theory account of rationalizatio... |
992a9ab9-1d1f-4d31-9f62-070ca3e3ae93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bay Area Solstice
As the holiday season approaches, we continue our tradition of celebrating the winter solstice.
This event is the offspring of Raemon's New York Solstice. The core of the event is a collection of songs old and new, silly and profound, led by the well-calibrated Bayesian choir. There will be b... |
a398968c-df74-4d49-a661-5554243bbb57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | individuallyselected_84py7-by Vael Gates-date 20220318
# Interview with AI Researchers individuallyselected\_84py7 by Vael Gates
Interview with 84py7, on 3/18/22
================================
\*\*0:00:00.0 Vael:\*\* Here we are. Perfect. So my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on i... |
861cece6-8b6d-4f3d-87b1-94b224c2f64c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Risk Structures: Towards Engineering Risk-aware Autonomous Systems
arXiv:1904.10386v1 [cs.SE] 23 Apr 2019RISKSTRUCTURES : TOWARDS ENGINEERING RISK-AWARE
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS
A P REPRINT
Mario Gleirscher
Computer Science Department, University of York, York, UK∗
April 24, 2019
ABSTRACT
Inspired by widely-used technique... |
cf877ced-d17e-480c-8d60-3224f348d2d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels | Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs | Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
---
layout: chapter
title: Modeling Agents & Reinforcement Learning with Probabilistic Programming
hidden: true
---
## Intro
### Motivation
Why probabilistic programming?
- **ML:** predictions based on prior assumptions and data
- **Deep Learning:** lots of data + very we... |
d43bfab0-4537-41ec-a3f0-e47b2cc1c60f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Focusing
Epistemic status: Firm
The Focusing technique was developed by Eugene Gendlin as an attempt to answer the question of why some therapeutic patients make significant progress while others do not. Gendlin studied a large number of cases while teasing out the dynamics that became Focusing, and then spent a sign... |
7ee6a99b-34ea-4588-9291-6fc01e86b2c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #150]: The subtypes of Cooperative AI research
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
Audi... |
dd7e0bfb-4d63-446a-9880-de3105f92f2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Trouble With Babbles
I haven't yet participated in any of our babble challenges, even though I think they're a good idea. My reason is that they are ambiguous and prone to Goodhart's law. If the challenge is to list 50 ways of getting a golf ball to the moon, no matter how silly, I could do this:
1. Carry it whi... |
cc0edd65-82e6-4d5c-8b2c-eab9f80d47c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How factories were made safe
Angelo Guira was just sixteen years old when he began working in the steel factory. He was a “trough boy,” and his job was to stand at one end of the trough where red-hot steel pipes were dropped. Every time a pipe fell, he pulled a lever that dumped the pipe onto a cooling bed. He was a s... |
3f6e9268-fc69-4aae-8029-e9a21bd5f53d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter
It is perhaps the best-kept secret on Less Wrong that the New York City community has been meeting regularly for almost two years. For nearly a year we've been meeting weekly or more. The rest of this post is going to be a practical guide to the benefits ... |
bed80ccb-4b7d-4522-a94c-a1e096d13faa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leverage Points: Places to intervene in a system
|
4b2d44cd-97e9-4dfd-9dfa-7ee415a2b29c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steelmanning MIRI critics
I'm giving a talk to the Boulder Future Salon in Boulder, Colorado in a few weeks on the Intelligence Explosion hypothesis. I've given it once before in Korea but I think the crowd I'm addressing will be more savvy than the last one (many of them have met Eliezer personally). It could end up ... |
8360eb17-98cb-4116-8c45-49a26197fef6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A small update to the Sparse Coding interim research report
This is a linkpost to a [**set of slides**](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1lP3u8NupGyWtrECoxr4zroemUZpCDd5k3ghuBbORWHU/edit?usp=sharing)containing an update to a project that was the subject of a previous post ([[Interim research report] Taking featu... |
8b2d946c-fc77-4caf-b12c-ebfe1fc69928 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Speed + Simplicity Prior is probably anti-deceptive
*Thanks to Evan Hubinger for the extensive conversations that this post is based on, and for reviewing a draft.*
This post is going to assume familiarity with mesa-optimization - for a good primer, check out [Does SGD Produce Deceptive Misalignment](https://www.... |
91a3c8c9-2359-405d-b535-00ca60b8166c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possibilities for converting useless fun into utility in Online Gaming
Online gaming in immersive MMOs such as World of Warcraft or EVE Online is a common way of having fun. As technology progresses, MMO gaming will likely become ever more popular, until MMOs are fully immersive virtual realities, leading many to cons... |
47dd5984-63f0-4c17-99cd-345f4360573e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Game theory and expected opponents
Thanks to V_V and Emile for some great discussion. Since writing up a post seems to reliably spark interesting comments, that's what I'll do!
Summary
If I wanted to write down a decision theory that gets the correct answer to game-theoretic problems (like playing the middle Nash... |
1be7adcf-7df6-4f38-a47d-cb8ecb751f60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Travis Rivera
summary: Machine Learning and statistics expert. |
8903b10c-6f36-4c1e-b412-3f4036018874 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If AI is based on GPT, how to ensure its safety?
Imagine that an advance robot is built, which is uses GPT-7 as its brain. It takes all previous states of the world and predicts the next step. If a previous state of the world includes a command, like "bring me a cup of coffee", it predicts that it should bring coffee ... |
5521c7b8-6535-4e96-8b66-15f8722df761 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Benja Fallenstein on the Löbian Obstacle to Self-Modifying Systems
Benja Fallenstein researches mathematical models of human and animal behavior at [Bristol University](http://www.bris.ac.uk/), as part of the [MAD research group](http://www.bri... |
cb7b854c-b37c-4624-bb3e-e0e58f2a576c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Death Note, Anonymity, and Information Theory
I don't know if this is a little too afar field for even a Discussion post, but people seemed to enjoy my previous articles (Girl Scouts financial filings, video game console insurance, philosophy of identity/abortion, & prediction market fees), so...
I recently wrote up ... |
c29e6097-3d13-46b1-9bfa-11f023661cc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the best way to develop a strong sense of having something to protect
In HPMOR Eliezer makes "Something to Protect" Harry's power that the Dark Lord doesn't have. In Posture for Mental Arts Valentine from CFAR argues that it's likely a key part of having proper mental posture.
Did any of you make a conscious ... |
0bf8e7f8-eeef-4054-8c29-4f557fad11a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress Conference 2024: Toward Abundant Futures
The progress movement has grown a lot in the last few years. We now have progress journals, think tanks, and fellowships. The progress idea has spread and evolved into the “abundance agenda”, “techno-optimism”, “supply-side progressivism”, “American dynamism”. All of u... |
17c53108-9c99-475b-8ba2-9ec53d05c1ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geoffrey Hinton on the Past, Present, and Future of AI
Introduction
Geoffrey Hinton is a famous AI researcher who is often referred to as the "godfather of AI" because of his foundational work on neural networks and deep learning from the 1980s until today. Arguably his most significant contribution to the field of AI... |
16fcea59-8c22-4205-83f6-c4faf7371f65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is full self-driving an AGI-complete problem?
I've felt for quite a while that full self-driving (automated driving without human supervision through arbitrary road systems) is a problem that is deceptively hard. Yes, it is possible to map a route and navigate on a road mesh, do lane following, and even obstacle avoid... |
578975c0-59c9-4274-b72a-725af74762b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geometric Exploration, Arithmetic Exploitation
This post is going to mostly be propaganda for Thompson sampling. However, the presentation is quite different from the standard presentation. I will be working within a toy model, but I think some of the lessons will generalize. I end with some discussion of fairness and... |
2e93c002-0eb8-469a-bc5d-f4006cec2456 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Progress"
I often hear people speak of democracy as the next, or the final, inevitable stage of human social development. Its inevitability is usually justified not by describing power relations that result in democracy being a stable attractor, but in terms of morality - democracy is more "enlightened". I don't se... |
c106b06b-2618-419f-aeca-f6b2c2cac2ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Practical Black-Box Attacks against Deep Learning Systems using Adversarial Examples
1 Introduction
---------------
A *classifier* is a machine learning model that learns a mapping between inputs and a predefined set of *classes*. For instance, a malware detector is a classifier taking executables as inputs and as... |
7a35313a-8c1f-4f39-b1a5-ad63ceb8a531 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Really radical empathy
Summary
It seems to me that almost every view of what matters for welfare — hedonism, desire theories, preference views, and objective list theories — misses a lot of what we care about, projects concerns we don’t actually have onto us, or otherwise fails to care about them on our behalves as we... |
487fa101-f826-4f33-b610-7c01cbebaf7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong London meetup, tomorrow (Sunday 2010-04-04) 16:00
UPDATE: Backup plan is to meet at the Starbucks across the road (16 Piccadilly, London W1J 0DE, 020 7287 8311). I've been trying to ring the Waterstones and the coffee shop for a while now and waited several minute for an answer with no success, so I think i... |
2283a055-112f-400f-a488-3f2a463e2ce0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | <$750k grants for General Purpose AI Assurance/Safety Research
Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) is accepting applications for AI Safety / AI Assurance research grants.
They are offering up to $750k per project accepted, expended over 6-24 months.
1-2 page expression of inte... |
65e44de7-91e9-43ea-b2ec-41b0e8392031 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | What’s up with nuclear weapons?
*By Katja Grace, 27 February 2015*
When nuclear weapons were first built, the explosive power you could extract from a tonne of explosive [skyrocketed](http://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-nuclear-weapons/ "Discontinuity from Nuclear Weapons"). But why?
Here’s a guess. Until nucl... |
079c6097-4232-491c-be5d-8b5d8f9fe151 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are matching markets?
{Epistemic Status: Just reviewing my thoughts on a book and its subject matter. I have done some independent study of the field (and have a degree in economics), but I did not try to check my impressions rigorously. Much or maybe most of what I say is extrapolation by me, rather than being i... |
411d38bf-4f12-4f3d-a6c7-33e0e6d59f45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Predictions for shard theory mechanistic interpretability results
How do agents work, internally? My (TurnTrout's) shard theory [MATS](https://www.serimats.org/) team set out to do mechanistic interpretability on one of the [goal misgeneralization](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.14111) agents: the cheese-maze network.
!... |
38ea43c4-013e-4e38-9724-6d650df22edd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Play By Analogy
This post is adapted from a longer, more wide-ranging post on Substack where I attempt to collect some of my thoughts about AI as a relative outsider to the field. The section I have decided to share here, though, I believe to be novel.
Success in self-play by game AIs like AlphaZero has led to s... |
dbb949ba-d8b5-47aa-b1b3-7f99cf30d0ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values with Brian Christian
- All right.
Good afternoon, everyone.
I usually say,
"Welcome to the Jackson
Institute for Global Affairs."
We're across the street from
Horchow Hall at the moment
here at the Watson Center.
I'm Ted Wittenstein.
I'm Executive Director of
In... |
d2c0ce7f-3523-4e46-a52e-0679d9e0c10b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mic-Ra-finance and the illusion of control
|
b90405a0-12a5-4739-a6d5-95e50d4e7ee9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Teleological Mechanism
I just wrote this up as a comment, but I think it deserves to be a top level post because it's an important idea. Additionally, this formulation is crisp enough that folks should be able to usefully engage with it.
In this seminal cybernetics essay a way of thinking about the concept we mig... |
11e30977-ed53-4c13-a094-ad74d7c947c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Zurich LW Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : First Zurich LW Meetup
WHEN: 12 November 2011 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: near Sihlcity, Zurich
For any Zurich-based LWers - let's meet up. I suggest resilience as a topic for discussion. Afterwards, we can figure out whether to do something more reg... |
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