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80a0afd4-fb19-4902-9276-ce6370e9552d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Understanding of Paul Christiano's Iterated Amplification AI Safety Research Agenda
Crossposted from the EA forum
You can read this post as a google docs instead (IMO much better to read).
This document aims to clarify the AI safety research agenda by Paul Christiano (IDA) and the arguments around how promising i... |
95839d50-8768-4e5a-b609-720e1e07c8fe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Agents vs. Predictors: Concrete differentiating factors
*Thanks to Paul Christiano and Kate Woolverton for useful conversations and feedback.*
In "[Conditioning Predictive Models](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/n3utvGrgC2SGi9xQX)," we devote a lot of effort into trying to understand how likely predictive models ar... |
1c953eb2-e55b-4f5f-a021-481a87578a2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Part 3: A Proposed Approach for AI Safety Movement Building: Projects, Professions, Skills, and Ideas for the Future [long post][bounty for feedback]
Epistemic status
================
Written as a non-expert to develop my views and get feedback, rather than persuade.
Why read this post?
===================
Read th... |
016f45aa-05b5-4578-9c3f-d171d8018d2c | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "This sequence of posts is a primer on game theory intended at an introductory level. Because it is introductory, Less Wrong veterans may find some parts boring, obvious, or simplistic - although hopefully nothing is so simplistic as to be outright wrong.Parts of this sequence draw heavily upon material from The Art of... |
82a45d75-864e-47bd-84d6-d83ad4a1d6a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GDP per capita in 2050
Abstract
Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just 27 years. The key cl... |
98a4023d-054e-40b2-a586-3cc6419e26ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
*By Rick Korzekwa, 17 September 2019*
Artificial intelligence defeated a pair of professional Starcraft II players for the first time in December 2018. Although this was generally regarded as an impressive achievement, it quickly became clear that not every... |
98f09abf-742b-416f-ac3a-7869ce8f5c92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Warsaw, next week!
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw, next week!
WHEN: 23 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Warsaw
I invite you to participate in a meetup next week; exact date will be chosen by voting here: http://doodle.com/2dshyg6hqbth72zvnp96sa73/admin#table. Time and place will be post... |
2411c2b5-881a-4ea1-81de-cb70318ed28f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost)
#### [***Update 2013-09-05.***](/r/discussion/lw/ij4/i_attempted_the_ai_box_experiment_again_and_won/)
#### **[*I have since played two more AI box experiments after this one, winning both.*](/r/discussion/lw/ij4/i_attempted_the_ai_box_experiment_again_and_won/)**
***... |
b1f2847a-ea6e-484e-b2a9-039f63fcfab9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An optimal stopping paradox
Consider an optimal stopping problem: a company at each time step grows by some constant, and has a certain probability of shutting down. You decide when to sell the company.
Since the math is cleaner in continuous time, we consider the continuous time. Then the company has a linearly incr... |
3256409f-9ad3-4d8c-bafd-5492bdb4865f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why (anthropic) probability isn't enough
A technical report of the Future of Humanity Institute (authored by me), on why anthropic probability isn't enough to reach decisions in anthropic situations. You also have to choose your decision theory, and take into account your altruism towards your copies. And these compon... |
3c7fccae-df65-4753-bff1-de970f2c4a1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poked
This was supposed to be the post analyzing the survey results.Then I thought: if I’m writing that, I may as well show examples of some basic Bayesian analysis, like using likelihood ratios. And if I’m doing analysis, I may as well give some more background on data science and also show how the results depend on ... |
a1a92598-01e1-4318-874b-4ccea7279e60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is it Better to Train on the Alignment Proxy?
This is a response to Matt's earlier post. If you see "a large mixture of alignment proxies" when you look at a standard loss function, my post might save you from drawing silly conclusions from the earlier post. If you parse the world into non-overlapping magisteria ... |
d710a702-712c-415d-bc05-f58bb5ca140e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building Safe A.I. - A Tutorial for Encrypted Deep Learning
|
7eb0ae34-f3a5-4371-be75-b6336e173ae3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Large Language Models
[Taylor Webb](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Webb%2C+T), [Keith J. Holyoak](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Holyoak%2C+K+J), [Hongjing Lu](https://arxiv.org/search/cs?searchtype=author&query=Lu%2C+H), December 2022
> The ... |
f2e07a78-fad8-4f9a-8c12-8a182694ff92 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Yudkowsky on “What can we do now?”
A paraphrased transcript of a conversation with Eliezer Yudkowsky.
**Interviewer**: Suppose you’re talking to a smart mathematician who looks like the kind of person who might have the skills needed to work on a Friendly AI team. But, he says, “I understand the general problem of A... |
1e6953a3-5543-46ce-80c6-0a4c2990c61c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reward/value learning for reinforcement learning
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Along with Jan Leike and Laurent Orseau, I've been working to formalise many of the issues with AIs learning human values.
I'll be presenting part of this at NIPS and the whole of it at some later conference. Therefore i... |
422b4552-ab84-4fc3-8864-8b0645e5253d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimization Markets
How can we coordinate on solving important computational problems? And how can we do this safely?
Computing Markets
We can think of computing power as a resource, and one way to get people to contribute their resources to a project you think is important is to pay them! The global computing powe... |
1faf3881-3e56-4cfd-8810-605d419e07d6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why don't governments seem to mind that companies are explicitly trying to make AGIs?
*Epistemic Status: Quickly written, uncertain. I'm fairly sure there's very little in terms of the public or government concerned about AGI claims, but I'm sure there's a lot I'm missing. I'm not at all an expert on government or pol... |
f32d60ce-8356-4af2-b9de-5401c19fd18f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do I find Likelihoods and Prior probabilities for Complete blood count (CBC) values for cats?
I'm in the midst of reading Eliezer's sequences and I have learned Bayes' Theorem because of it. I wanted to apply it to my friend's current uncertain situation. Her cat was diagnosed with a disease called FIP and she has... |
b9db7894-293d-4b54-a6fe-d2e2fca3d128 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Partial preferences and models
Note: working on a research agenda, hence the large amount of small individual posts, to have things to link to in the main documents.
EDIT: This model is currently obsolete, see here for the most current version.
I've talked about partial preferences and partial models before. I haven... |
1375d471-1274-48fa-bce5-c6fcb728a0fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Correspondence Bias Reversal?
I'm currently taking an introductory Russian class. I have been using Anki to memorize the vocabulary, and I do appear to know more vocabulary than anyone else in the class1 except for one other individual. This individual has far surpassed everyone else in the class, in every area (gramm... |
84c7de86-12a9-4f39-8740-d414fbe4127c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Can We Distinguish Machine Learning from Human Learning?
1 Introduction
---------------
There is enormous interest in, and confidence regarding, Machine Learning. The situation is reminiscent of Archimedes’s observation about the power of a lever: “Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and... |
2062b143-1f40-4405-a7bd-99ce97588174 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polling Thread
This is the third installment of the Polling Thread.
This is your chance to ask your multiple choice question you always wanted to throw in. Get qualified numeric feedback to your comments. Post fun polls.
These are the rules:
1. Each poll goes into its own top level comment and may be commented the... |
575cbdc2-c675-4841-bd0d-99c12a3fe552 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kolmogorov complexity makes reward learning worse
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
In a previous post, I argued that Kolmogorov complexity/simplicity priors do not help when learning human values - that some extreme versions of the reward or planners were of roughly equal complexity.
Here I'll demonst... |
e7056068-1ace-451d-8ce6-331c7470f210 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, September 11 - September 17, 2017
IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; re... |
f287f360-49e7-4b27-a4f8-90d657d231c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Intro to ML Safety virtual program: 12 June - 14 August
**The Intro to ML Safety course covers foundational techniques and concepts in ML safety for those interested in pursuing research careers in AI safety, with a focus on empirical research.**
We think it's a good fit for people with ML backgrounds who are lookin... |
e2abf1dc-7a29-49be-85d8-67dfceb63447 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coherence arguments imply a force for goal-directed behavior
[Epistemic status: my current view, but I haven’t read all the stuff on this topic even in the LessWrong community, let alone more broadly.]
There is a line of thought that says that advanced AI will tend to be ‘goal-directed’—that is, consistently doing wh... |
6171842e-7fea-4533-ba65-4b2cc2807406 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI safety via market making
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; dir... |
1dddf31f-d02a-4e7c-aa42-ba71f47e0ecb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dominic Cummings : Regime Change #2: A plea to Silicon Valley
Dominic Cummings lays out how a project to change US politics could look. |
72aa8e1a-b1bf-4dd2-b0da-1b42dc701134 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs as amplifiers, not assistants
Since ChatGPT, the "assistant" frame has dominated how we think about LLMs. Under this frame, AI is a helpful person-like entity which helpfully completes tasks for humans.
This frame isn't perfect, especially when we think about its implications from a safety perspective. Assistant... |
6d3f58f1-1f5c-4630-b537-3461294050fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambridge Less Wrong Group Planning Meetup, Tuesday 14 June 7pm
Visiting the rationality minicamp and hearing about the amazing things NYC's meetup group is doing, and comparing them to what Cambridge's group is doing, has made me realize that much more is possible. Let's meet and discuss future directions - activitie... |
3e85524a-73e4-4b51-afd5-73583818c6f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Characterizing Real-World Agents as a Research Meta-Strategy
Background
Intuitively, the real world seems to contain agenty systems (e.g. humans), non-agenty systems (e.g. rocks), and ambiguous cases which display some agent-like behavior sometimes (bacteria, neural nets, financial markets, thermostats, etc). There’s ... |
7ca0ba96-c77f-4eb6-b270-d59f2e8b1819 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, DC: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, DC: Fun & Games
WHEN: 26 April 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
Due to uncertain weather, the Outdoor part of the Outdoor Fun & Games will be postponed.
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the Donald W. Reyn... |
925e2155-272f-43ed-b8c5-27dfb9eebf21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impact Measure Testing with Honey Pots and Myopia
Suppose we have an impact measure that we think might work. That is, it might tame a misaligned agent. There isn't an obvious way to test whether it works: if we just try it out, then if it's ineffective, that's an existential loss. This is a proposal for how to test a... |
287c78c1-b723-479c-92b0-945e55b5bbbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 02/28/2021 - Myanmar Diaries; Context
Content Warning: violence, depressing content, politics
This is the start of a weekly diary on the Myanmar coup and revolution, inspired by Zvi's weekly Covid blog and Robin Hanson. Every week I will discuss recent events in the conflict between the military regime and the pro-de... |
71d5bd73-cbcb-4859-a226-c1837f97a42b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
Highlights
* Keine Davon to become German Chancellor despite prediction markets' confidence to the contrary
* Netflix releases Korean soap opera: Forecasting Love And Weather.
* Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand
Index
* Highlights
* Prediction Markets & Forecasting Pl... |
66ab766d-04c4-49e4-932e-a4de7b2faa3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguments for and against gradual change
Essentially all solutions in life are conditional: you apply them in the right context, in the right conditions to achieve a good outcome. Obviously banging a hammer on your desk
does probably no good, while banging a hammer on a nail you want to use to hang that nice painting ... |
60aa04f4-87b9-46be-aea1-7b8ce291dfbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Mapping Biases to the Components of Rationalistic and Naturalistic Decision Making'
In a recent paper, Lisa Rehak and others map a few common cognitive biases to the particular decision-making processes in which they are likely to arise. Abstract:
> People often create and use shortcuts or “rules of thumb” to make d... |
d0d076cf-ea6e-4f04-ac47-dda45e5b5d82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Charting Deaths: Reality vs Reported
Some of you may recall an iconic study Yudkowsky references in his Availability essay, where Combs and Slovic looked at the different ways people died and newspaper reporting to see if they were proportional.
For my data science course at UCSD, my group and I attempted to replicat... |
740511d3-c7aa-404a-8263-3d70e05fceeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #150]: The subtypes of Cooperative AI research
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https:/... |
ec384197-d689-4114-8cf1-4d1cab890af0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Open AI co-founder on AGI
Here's a talk where Open AI co-founder Ilya Sutskever talks about the issue of AI progress and AGI. (Before the timestamp he was talking about Open AI's specific projects such as Dota 2 and their hand robot).
tl;dw: (*italics* indicate my interpolations):
* AGI in the near-medium term can'... |
9ba00731-f791-4e05-a970-f8c5259e46e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Evaluating the Robustness
of Neural Networks
Abstract
--------
Neural networks provide state-of-the-art results for most machine learning tasks.
Unfortunately, neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples:
given an input x and any target classification t, it is possible to find
a new input x′ tha... |
2d249803-de99-46b0-9457-270cb7155603 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI labs' statements on governance
This is a collection of statements on government policy, regulation, and standards from leading AI labs and their leadership.
As of 7 *August 2023*, I believe this post has all of the relevant announcements/blogposts from the three labs it covers, but I expect it is missing a couple ... |
e6b04d3e-bedd-4bf5-97bb-2ab7cbeaf269 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What would a compute monitoring plan look like? [Linkpost]
Yonadav Shavit (CS PhD student at Harvard) recently released a paper titled [What does it take to catch a Chinchilla? Verifying Rules on Large-Scale Neural Network Training via Compute Monitoring](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11341).
The paper describes a compu... |
5652dac7-af2e-42d5-b2b7-ac1eec11623b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
WHEN: 07 July 2015 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv
Next Tuesday at 19:00 we're going to have a social meetup! It's going to be a game night full of people talking about p... |
0cc579d5-101e-4e90-ba03-3646af9c23b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counting arguments provide no evidence for AI doom
Crossposted from the AI Optimists blog.
AI doom scenarios often suppose that future AIs will engage in scheming— planning to escape, gain power, and pursue ulterior motives, while deceiving us into thinking they are aligned with our interests. The worry is that if a ... |
a14766db-2a60-4cf2-a045-ba39ac89b08e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Dialogue on Deceptive Alignment Risks
I have long been puzzled by the wide differences in the amount of concern established alignment researchers show for deceptive alignment risks. I haven't seen a post that clearly outlines the cruxes: much of the relevant conversation is buried deep within LessWrong comment secti... |
ab2866fc-0403-4400-b159-0453b00123e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoid the abbreviation "FLOPs" – use "FLOP" or "FLOP/s" instead
Especially in discussions about AI, the abbreviation "FLOPs" is being used for both "floating point operations per second" (a measure of computational power) and "floating point operations" (a measure of total computations, and equivalent to the previous ... |
6f356a10-f889-4001-8cce-a3c3edc69ca0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sources of intuitions and data on AGI
Much of the difficulty in making progress on AI safety comes from the lack of useful feedback loops. We do not have a superintelligent AI to run tests on and by the time we do, it will probably be too late. This means we have to resort to using proxies. In this post, I will highli... |
c5a03f3c-fdc5-4097-9bd4-c320bad6af86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating GiveWell as a startup idea based on Paul Graham's philosophy
Effective altruism is a growing movement, and a number of organizations (mostly foundations and nonprofits) have been started in the domain. One of the very first of these organizations, and arguably the most successful and influential, has been c... |
923941ea-49f7-482f-b851-6717452629d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conversational Signposts—How to stop having boring social interactions
I went from being a bad conversationalist to a good one after learning about conversational signposts.
Before defining the concept that led me to having more engaging and diverse social interactions, I’d like to first showcase an awkward chat I ha... |
96fa35ea-ecf9-4d3e-a5e3-ff661cadc00e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Six economics misconceptions of mine which I've resolved over the last few years
Here are six cases where I was pretty confident in my understanding of the microeconomics of something, but then later found out I was missing an important consideration.
Thanks to Richard Ngo and Tristan Hume for helpful comments.
Here... |
d9116950-0830-4ee9-b4fe-bb0d467a8f74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cutting edge technology
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/cutting-edge-technology/
----------------------------------------
When the microscope was invented, in a very short period of time we discovered the cell and the concept of microbiology. That one invention allowed us to open up entire fields of biology a... |
803b55eb-d2f1-4ec2-8691-616f59425750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Boredom vs Scope Insensitivity, and life-debugging
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Boredom vs Scope Insensitivity, and life-debugging
WHEN: 16 February 2013 03:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2505 W broadway, vancouver
Meet at Benny's Bagels on west broadway at 15:00 on saturday.
We are goi... |
7765104b-ddd1-4cf4-a0e5-21cd7eb0e0ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Directed Babbling
At a rationality workshop I ran an activity called “A Thing.” Not only because I didn’t know what to call it, but because I didn’t know what to expect. In retrospect, I've decided to christen it "Directed Babbling."
It was borne out of a naive hope that if two individuals trusted each other enough, ... |
c76362ca-ec7c-44f5-8251-b23536af5c98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nick Land: Orthogonality
Editor's note
Due to the interest aroused by @jessicata's posts on the topic, Book review: Xenosystems and The Obliqueness Thesis, I thought I'd share a compendium of relevant Xenosystem posts I have put together.
If you, like me, have a vendetta against trees, a tastefully typeset LaTeχ ve... |
6592e322-7825-4d4d-8fa7-298682646495 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, 18-24 March 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
889f49a8-d968-40dd-84ec-6f780ebdca4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I believe some AI doomers are overconfident
Just up front: I have no qualifications on this so adjust accordingly. I teach AP Calc/AP Stats if you want to know my deal. Putting this down because half the time I'm reading a post I'm thinking to myself "I wish I knew what this person's deal is" :)
People who believe ... |
a6104fd4-b38d-459a-bfb6-fe8ca89d6b80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No, really, can "dead" time be salvaged?
About a month ago, /u/batislu on /r/SlateStarCodex posted the question "How do you spend your "dead" time productively?". I read this thread, and found myself relieved (because of the admonitions to chill out), but also frustrated (because of the lack of real answers to the que... |
5e26c16d-de13-4382-8ed7-95d08c083755 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PSA for academics in Ukraine (or anywhere else) who want to come to the United Kingdom
If you are an academic with a PhD, or someone who has achieved some level of recognition in the arts or digital technology, and you would like to come to the United Kingdom, the UK's "Global Talent" visa is worth taking a look at.
... |
e19296c9-ce36-4c0c-98b9-91bd64b4e5e0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Cooperative Oracles: Introduction
This is the first in a series of posts introducing a new tool called a Cooperative Oracle. All of these posts are joint work Sam Eisenstat, Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, and Nisan Stiennon.
Here is my plan for posts in this sequence. I will update this as I go.
1. [Introduction](https://age... |
526a3910-1edf-47aa-8de3-9498c504f7e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matrix and Inspirational religious fiction
Preface
This post is entirely intended to be inspirational and entertaining. Which though is no excuse for the logical flaws in it. None of this is particularly plausible nor am I trying to support religion in some weird way, anyway I hope anyone doesn't find this offensive,... |
692f603a-54a8-403c-989d-1ce22a64bc36 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Is state-dependent valuation more adaptive than simpler rules?.
Is state-dependent valuation more adaptive than simpler rules?
==============================================================
Abstract
--------
[McNamara et al. (2012)](#bib0030) claim to provide an explanation of certain systematic deviations from rati... |
43d6b07e-2fb2-4170-b5b8-d28b5b5d38bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Building a transformer from scratch - AI safety up-skilling challenge
It is not always obvious whether your skills are sufficiently good to work for one of the various AI safety and alignment organizations. There are many options to calibrate and improve your skills including just applying to an org or talking with ot... |
d4ebd958-2472-47ef-8a43-86fd9682f178 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How one uses set theory for alignment problem?
Is there a simple explanation how set theory, mathematical logic etc. can be used for alignment problem? From reading this post I got an impression that it is very important for the research in MIRI, or, at least, was important in 2013. Maybe I simply don't know what the... |
d9f9ae0c-753a-451c-8854-d1c36dca872d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Towards deconfusing values
*NB: Kaj recently said [some similar and related things](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2yLn8iTrvHoEgqXcJ/the-two-layer-model-of-human-values-and-problems-with) while I was on hiatus from finishing this post. I recommend reading it for a different take on what I view as a line of thinking g... |
eff401c8-5f8e-4537-a670-404997fd1c2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Whither Manufacturing?
Today's post, Whither Manufacturing? was originally published on December 2, 2008. A summary:
> There's no general reason to suppose that nanotechnology will enable a boom in local production. The location of production is a trade off between economies and dis-economies of scale.... |
fcf55559-2c47-4fbb-9598-473124c2ea68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, April 1-15, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
d7439072-9517-4a06-916d-be322b321c28 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | "Publish or Perish" (a quick note on why you should try to make your work legible to existing academic communities)
This is a brief, stylized recounting of a few conversations I had at some point last year with people from the non-academic AI safety community:[[1]](#fn8n7dpil3dnd)
**Me:** you guys should write up yo... |
91b8c638-997e-4da5-a6ae-dd635f057544 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tactical vs. Strategic Cooperation
As I've matured, one of the (101-level?) social skills I've come to appreciate is asking directly for the narrow, specific thing you want, instead of debating around it.
What do I mean by "debating around" an issue?
Things like:
"If we don't do what I want, horrible things A, B, a... |
64b26a91-2a3d-413d-94f7-f359cdc199d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 4. Existing Writing on Corrigibility
(Part 4 of the CAST sequence)
This document is an in-depth review of the primary documents discussing corrigibility that I’m aware of. In particular, I'll be focusing on the writing of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Paul Christiano, though I’ll also spend some time at the end briefly discu... |
55966b07-6df7-4eca-b57d-188fc5c866af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simple proofs of the age of the universe (or other things)
I saw some time ago Carl Sagan asked schoolchildren for proofs that the earth is round. I can no longer find it, but they gave him sound, simple answers. One was watching a ship seem to sink below the horizon as it grows distant. One was photos of Earth from s... |
588f3d9f-45af-4da5-b6ea-894ffc5cb3bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Glasgow
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 14th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bangalore Meetup: 22 November 2014 03:56AM
* Glasgow (Scotland) Meetup: 16 November 2014 03:30PM
Irregularly scheduled Le... |
df39413c-f3ca-47b4-a1e3-6de97bebf3a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dangers of Outsourcing Thinking: Losing Our Critical Thinking to the Over-Reliance on AI Decision-Making
I’ve become so reliant on a GPS that using maps to direct myself feels like a foreign concept. Google Maps, Waze, whatever, if it's outside of my neighbourhood, I’m punching in the address before I head out. So... |
3efc7427-071f-4004-9917-94c46da5a1b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropologists and "science": dark side epistemology?
The American Anthropological Association has apparently decided to ditch the word "science", arguably so they can promote political messages without hindrance from empirical data.
If so, this might be an example of dark side epistemology.
(Articles in Psychology... |
2b70efda-3535-4a64-8e93-1bbaa7035dc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes Thread July 2015
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do ... |
f85f8134-8468-48cb-bf31-ad83eb466ccf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Switching to Electric Mandolin
A little over a year ago I bought a solid-body electric mandolin. At the time I was thinking I would still mostly play my acoustic or bring both to gigs, but instead I've ended up switching entirely. I compared recordings and amplification options, and it turns out that the cleaner sound... |
71cfc37d-6c97-49ea-b4bd-15c622152e96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What I'm doing
*I've found myself with an intuition that there's a lot of value in people writing down exactly what they're doing and the mechanisms/assumptions behind that. I further have the intuition that it's perfectly fine if people do this rather quickly as most of the marginal value is in doing this at all rath... |
6771939d-c058-4a0f-b4ea-8abcefb85490 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion group
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion group
WHEN: 20 October 2012 11:00:00AM (-0400)
WHERE: Parker and Otis, 112 S Duke St, Durham NC 27701
We'll be discussing Harry Potter and the Methods of Methods of Rationality, chapters 8-11.
While we encourage ever... |
bbb04354-c42f-40aa-9d10-82056162f867 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moderation Reference
This is a repository of moderation decisions that we expect to make semi-frequently, where it's somewhat complicated to explain our reasoning but we don't want that explanation to end up dominating a thread. We'll be adding to this over time, and/or converting it into a more scalable format once i... |
f3ef1197-eb25-4e8b-80f3-903f918ce329 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please Bet On My Quantified Self Decision Markets
There are too many possible quantified self experiments to run. Do hobbyist prediction platforms[1] make priorisation easier? I test this by setting up multiple markets, in order to run two experiments (the best one, and a random one), mostly for the effects of nootrop... |
0d5aa602-3797-4d12-94a2-ae50845e3edb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reducing x-risk might be actively harmful
Great. Another crucial consideration I missed. I was convinced that working on reducing the existential risk for humanity should be a global priority.
Upholding our potential and ensuring that we can create a truly just future seems so wonderful.
Well, recently I was introdu... |
b7130495-e01b-4de8-beec-fdbe2d2b1694 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA—DUMP STAT
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA—DUMP STAT
WHEN: 10 December 2014 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the lot out front or on the street nearby.
D... |
1d4a17c0-0b00-485f-9e3a-b54300485985 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding LLMs: Some basic observations about words, syntax, and discourse [w/ a conjecture about grokking]
Cross posted from New Savanna.
I seem to be in the process of figuring out what I’ve learned about Large Language Models in the process of playing around with ChatGPT since December of last year. I’ve alre... |
38971d51-9a20-47e3-8cbc-9efbe89884cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oracle paper
Available on the arXiv, my paper on two types of Oracles (AIs constrained to answering questions only), and how to use them more safely.
> An Oracle is a design for potentially high power artificial intelligences (AIs), where the AI is made safe by restricting it to only answer questions. Unfortunately m... |
74450e01-5fff-411d-99f3-42c70fda7817 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Identifying bias. A Bayesian analysis of suspicious agreement between beliefs and values.
Here is a new paper of mine (12 pages) on suspicious agreement between belief and values. The idea is that if your empirical beliefs systematically support your values, then that is evidence that you arrived at those beliefs thro... |
a4c6f531-cb0d-499b-b1b5-12d2d9c8ca70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Neuro-symbolic EDA-based Optimisation using ILP-enhanced DBNs
1 Introduction
---------------
There are many real-world planning problems for which domain knowledge is
qualitative, and not easily encoded in a form suitable for numerical optimisation.
Here, for instance, are some guiding principles that are followed ... |
1766b9ac-5159-4958-93d2-23b9082545a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help Request: How to maintain focus when emotionally overwhelmed
So my personal life just got very interesting. In a net-positive way, certainly, but still, I am, as Calculon put it, "filled with a large number of powerful emotions!" -- some of which are anxious and/or panicky.
This is making it annoyingly difficult ... |
9750d1b2-9491-4bea-91a5-0f1336df1f4f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development: Nick Bostrom
1Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed
Technological Development
NICK BOST ROM
Oxford University
ABSTRACT. With very advanced technology, a very large population of people living
happy lives could be sustain... |
1c2948c0-1d08-4809-b49e-1631aa0328f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meetup: Quantum physics is fun
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meetup: Quantum physics is fun
WHEN: 26 October 2014 03:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Here's our plan:
* Calibration excercise announce.
* Temporal symmetry in quantum theory and/or philosop... |
19b9b2d8-9368-4456-871c-65fed42dea53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Pit
If you brought a man with keen ears to the edge of the pit and dropped a quarter over exactly the right spot, you could count to eleven before he heard it hit the ground. If you next told the man that a sliver of sunlight was visible from the very bottom of said pit, he might have squinted at you skeptically... |
7c603ccd-86ca-4d37-9255-d2e8e2c8a04c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Funding is All You Need: Getting into Grad School by Hacking the NSF GRFP Fellowship
Fellowship is All You Need: Getting into Grad School by Hacking the NSF GRFP
Last year I started having delusions of grad school. By delusions I mean that on paper, in the numeric and text fields that actually make it into the applica... |
c2e2f8d1-7ad2-44b4-869a-6dae4ae574cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two sources of beyond-episode goals (Section 2.2.2 of “Scheming AIs”)
This is Section 2.2.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and technical terms, and I’m h... |
5765dc12-d5e1-48ad-b35d-be9517716d12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The shallow reality of 'deep learning theory'
> *Produced under the mentorship of Evan Hubinger as part of the* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Winter 2022 Cohort*
>
>
Most results under the umbrella of "deep learning theory" are not actually deep, about learning, or even the... |
55099026-b616-491a-94d6-8bbb6c7d6e06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Demons from the 5&10verse!
The 5 and 10 error is a glitch in logical reasoning that was first characterized in formal proof by Scott Garrabrant of MIRI. While the original version of the problem was something specifically concerning AIs based on logical induction, it generalizes out into humans startlingly often once ... |
21fd6d88-9b08-4d78-b30c-9c5c8179e5c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | South Bay Less Wrong Meetup Saturday Feb 26th
There will be a Less Wrong meetup at 6:00PM this Saturday, the 26th of February, at Tortuga (850 Williams way, Mountain View, CA), the planned community founded by Patri Friedman. Shannon Friedman will be our gracious host for the evening.
As usual, the meet-up will be... |
85b96fc9-4619-4907-8030-88545db79b68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Target for Tonight: A Drama In One Act
(Cross posted from my Substack, A Flood of Ideas - https://mflood.substack.com/p/target-for-tonight-a-drama-in-one)
Sources:
* Max Hastings, Bomber Command
* Frederick M. Sallagar, The Road to Total War (available online)
* “Target for Tonight,” 1941 RAF propaganda film (ava... |
b0e35343-b887-4d4c-a44c-2d584097fd2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Cacophony Hypothesis:
Simulation (If It is Possible At All) Cannot Call New Consciousnesses Into Existence
Epistemic Status: The following seems plausible to me, but it's complex enough that I might have made some mistakes. Moreover, it goes against the beliefs of many people much smarter than myself. Thus caution... |
6338466c-90c3-4fad-a348-b0575277e048 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paul Christiano on Dwarkesh Podcast
Dwarkesh's summary:
> Paul Christiano is the world’s leading AI safety researcher. My full episode with him is out!
>
> We discuss:
>
> * Does he regret inventing RLHF, and is alignment necessarily dual-use?
> * Why he has relatively modest timelines (40% by 2040, 15% by 2030),... |
4b865f10-bf17-48f2-b385-217cd3fbdc95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | UNGA General Debate speeches on AI
At the UN General Assembly's 2023 General Debate on September 19-26, many leaders spoke about artificial intelligence, and some specifically about existential risk and what to do about it. Attitudes ranged from advocating serious global action (Israel, the UK) to being completely dis... |
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