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71875754-0904-4347-b420-6fa44e4ed45f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Discovering when an agent is present in a system
[](/?source=post_page-----41154de11e7b--------------------------------)Listen
Share
***New, formal definition of agency gives clear principles for causal modelling of... |
945c7c9a-41fa-4af5-b967-67a52b022ea9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Look where I'm pointing, not at my finger
## Example problem
Suppose we're trying to give a [Task AGI](https://arbital.com/p/6w) the task, "Make there be a strawberry on the pedestal in front of your webcam." For example, a human could fulfill this task by buying a strawberry from the supermarket and putting it on t... |
8b1dd097-1a3d-4145-b7c4-bfe77a0f524f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can SAE steering reveal sandbagging?
Summary
* We conducted a small investigation into using SAE features to recover sandbagged capabilities.
* We used the Goodfire API to pick out 15 SAE features, 5 related to sandbagging, 5 related to general expertise, and 5 unrelated features.
* We used these features to steer... |
7b0d26ff-aa96-41eb-9a1b-52288959ab68 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Information-Theoretic Equivalence of Entropic Multi-Marginal Optimal Transport: A Theory for Multi-Agent Communication
1 Introduction
---------------
After Shannon’s groundbreaking work (Shannon, [1948](#bib.bib33 "A mathematical theory of communication")), information theory has been playing a central role in engi... |
5accc023-a7e6-4e61-a4df-cf1b86e5c014 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There Meat Come A Scandal...
ARCHIVED VERSION HERE.
There are multiple companies working on the problem of lab-grown meat (aka "cultured meat"). Supermeat is trying to grow synthetic chicken meat in an Israeli restaurant. The makers of Just Egg have sold cultured chicken meat to a restaurant in Singapore. Wild Type i... |
57410ac5-056a-4bbb-9333-d0178cbee332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Toxoplasma of AGI Doom and Capabilities?
[Epistemic Status: I'm confident that the individual facts I lay out support the main claim, but I'm not fully confident its enough evidence to make a true or useful framework for understanding the world.]
I'm going to give seven pieces of evidence to support this claim[1]... |
c4b83ea9-3b31-48b1-ba15-fab490d9cce6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcasts: AGI Show, Consistently Candid, London Futurists
For those of you who enjoy learning things via listening in on numerous slightly different conversations about them, and who also want to learn more about this AI survey I led, three more podcasts on the topic, and also other topics:
* The AGI Show: audio, vi... |
a38093d3-a7b3-44fe-90d0-690ed81f7dd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If reductionism is the hammer, what nails are out there?
EDIT: I'm moving this to the Discussion section because people seem to not like it (lack of upvotes) and to find the writing unclear. I'd love writing advice, if anyone wants to offer some.
----------------------------------------
Related to: Dissolvin... |
277cb411-a562-4d05-a9f6-ff1a35d19a8d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What AI Posts Do You Want Distilled?
I'd like to distill AI Safety posts and papers, and I'd like to see more distillations generally. Ideally, posts and papers would meet the following criteria:
* Potentially high-impact for more people to understand
* Uses a lot of jargon or is generally complex and difficult to un... |
bbd60835-b2b9-4c34-b0ac-57d42ac9c9ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Consequences of Misaligned AI
1 Introduction
---------------
In the story of King Midas, an ancient Greek king makes a wish that everything he touch turn to gold. He subsequently starves to death as his newfound powers transform his food into (inedible) gold. His wish was an *incomplete* representation of his actua... |
7a5d8d2b-fcc5-40ce-8712-cbe78ecceb70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci III Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
Here is the web interactive I built to let you test your solution; below is a complete explanation of the rules used to generate the dataset. You’l... |
ddb1eff4-ee85-4771-a5f6-ab05d6f1732d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "model scores" is a questionable concept
A couple of years ago, while I was working on a problem of what to do with the predictions of a random forest model, I noticed that the mean of the predictions on the test set didn't match the mean of the outcomes in the training data. Let me make that more concrete; consider t... |
8d60f280-9b98-47fc-a54d-e2a009fb8433 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
Thanks to Ozzie Gooen for reviewing this post.
Introduction
The Parable of the Predict-O-Matic is a short story which considers a forecasting system which is ostensibly set-up to maximize accuracy, and which ends up i... |
a7be5b80-c50f-457b-8425-e8211b004a79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is School of Thought related to the Rationality Community?
If so, who are they?
Link: https://yourbias.is/
At a gloss the material looks really polished and topical. |
658d3d78-5f8d-4c16-840a-65376a9a683f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Transhumanist Poem
**Note: I'm not a poet. I hardly ever write poetry, and when I do, it's usually because I've stayed up all night. However, this seemed like a very appropriate poem for Less Wrong. Not sure if it's appropriate as a top-level post. Someone please tell me if not.**
Imagine
The first man
Who hel... |
79c2d5ab-a1a3-4ae8-8b70-312d56ce4535 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cascio in The Atlantic, more on cognitive enhancement as existential risk mitigation
Jamais Cascio writes in the atlantic:
> Pandemics. Global warming. Food shortages. No more fossil fuels. What are humans to do? The same thing the species has done before: evolve to meet the challenge. But this time we don’t have to ... |
59a6647e-3794-414c-a98a-3b73ff0d4b30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critiquing Gary Taubes, Part 2: Atkins Redux
Previously: Mainstream Nutrition Science on Obesity
Edit: In retrospect, I think it maybe should have combined this post with part 3. Unfortunately, the problem of what to do with existing comments makes that hard to fix now.
Taubes first made a name for himself as a low-... |
1649cd33-7a34-409f-916b-ea3dd1ceb2db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Right for the Wrong Reasons
One of the few things that I really appreciate having encountered during my study of philosophy is the Gettier problem. Paper after paper has been published on this subject, starting with Gettier's original "Is Justified True Belief Knowledge?" In brief, Gettier argues that knowledge cannot... |
969e1e75-ff13-4143-ad27-7b7037db1ef0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Backplay: "Man muss immer umkehren"
1 Introduction
---------------
An important goal of AI research is to construct agents that can enter new environments and learn how to achieve desired goals (Levine et al., [2016](#bib.bib22)). A key paradigm for this task is deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) which succeeded... |
5ef5776f-f5ae-4d5c-b651-182304f66d1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware Experiments Without Evaluation
Sometimes, people propose "experiments" with new norms, policies, etc. that don't have any real means of evaluating whether or not the policy actually succeeded or not.
This should be viewed with deep skepticism -- it often seems to me that such an "experiment" isn't really an ex... |
b12d83b2-acf2-4826-89eb-bccfb342aa56 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | B-Pref: Benchmarking Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful method to solve a variety of sequential decision-making problems, including board games Silver et al. ([2017](#bib.bib58), [2018](#bib.bib59)), video games Berner et... |
587f12c5-0880-4465-ab7b-0218b39da2b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against EA PR
Scott Alexander recently wrote about weird effective altruism. Many people (mostly, but not entirely, people who aren't effective altruists) offered the opinion that weird effective altruists should be banned from EA, or at least shouldn't be allowed to give talks at EA Global and have blog posts written... |
dd38c695-37e4-4397-bf94-f0f81c18ec46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Should Confront Wrongness Wherever it Appears
In a recent discussion about a controversial topic which I will not name here, Vladimir_M noticed something extremely important.
> Because the necessary information is difficult to obtain in a clear and convincing form, and it's drowned in a vast sea of nonsens... |
32f60c6e-2347-4ab7-9d23-d7b70255acdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What to put in my time capsule?
In a few weeks I will open a time capsule I set for myself 5 years ago. I'm extremely excited and want to celebrate by setting myself a new time capsule to open in 5 years from now.
The difficult part about making the time capsule is what to include. Since I have not yet opened the ori... |
511358ce-7b50-46be-a454-0315245cb9be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The State of Metaculus
This linkpost summarizes Metaculus updates and initiatives from mid-2024 to early February, 2025. The original post covers technical improvements, new forecasting tournaments, and collaborations with CDC, GiveWell, Bridgewater Associates, Bright Line Watch, and more. While written for regular Me... |
468fd012-4b01-4a7e-8f72-dc021249853b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #29
Highlights
Deep Imitative Models for Flexible Inference, Planning, and Control (Nicholas Rhinehart et al): It's hard to apply deep RL techniques to autonomous driving, because we can't simply collect a large amount of experience with collisions in order to learn. However, imitation learning i... |
2ec78881-8830-4e00-8673-02bcb09e259d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I think to find out what I write
The maxim goes that “I write to find out what I think”. (Variously attributed to Flannery O'Connor or Joan Didion). It counsels that articulation highlights gaps in arguments, requires concrete positions, and dispels denial of inconvenient conclusions. I do not dispute it.
However, I ... |
276f6da3-9988-4f11-b695-8050222f4d67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational = true?
> For example, if you say, "The rational belief is X, but the true belief is Y" then you are probably using the word "rational" in a way that means something other than what most of us have in mind
This was copied from here.
Surely it is obvious that there are lots of examples when one might say thi... |
2e4f8c24-00dc-425b-9494-18a82f8edb50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trauma, Meditation, and a Cool Scar
[Trigger Warning: I’ll be discussing a physical injury, recovery, and panic attacks in detail. The first three pictures linked are gory. Again, they are linked, not directly shown]
Trauma
One year ago today, I was in an accident with an industrial drone. It was spinning too fast w... |
88c43ed3-ebd5-45f5-8819-6023d4aa1cc5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has Someone Checked The Cold-Water-In-Left-Ear Thing?
I somewhat recently read these posts, and figured this was enough evidence that it might be worth checking whether people become better calibrated for a short while after very cold water is poured in their left ear. For example: does doing that noticeably improve s... |
da72669d-3148-40ee-9dd7-5332013372a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case against AI alignment
Trigger warning: Discussion of seriously horrific shit. Honestly, everything is on the table here so if you're on the lookout for trigger warnings you should probably stay away from this conversation.
Any community of people which gains notability will attract criticism. Those who advoca... |
c3fcc8c5-a3fc-4597-8b53-f21c5a7dd2c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Playing in the Creek
When I was a really small kid, one of my favorite activities was to try and dam up the creek in my backyard. I would carefully move rocks into high walls, pile up leaves, or try patching the holes with sand. The goal was just to see how high I could get the lake, knowing that if I plugged every ho... |
b1c5e317-1939-43c9-a852-3241d5837a34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Models-centric Approach to Corrigible Alignment
This post starts with a reasonable story of how alignment might be solved, based on extracting human values from an AIs model of the world. Then I will elaborate on what I see as the main steps in this process. After that I will review the existing work (which I am awa... |
5f56c1f7-8aad-4c1c-97ba-ed9e65f70c2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do (did?) stable, cooperative institutions come from?
The United States has a bunch of nice things whose creation/maintenance requires coordinated effort from a large number of people across time. For example: bridges that stay up; electrical grids that provide us with power; the rule of law; newspapers that mak... |
0757a490-0d63-437b-9ffc-fdf40121953c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 12-year old challenges the Big Bang
I thought this may be of interest to the LW community. Jacob Barnett is a 12-year old male who taught himself all of high school math (algebra through calculus), has a currently scored math IQ of 170 (for what that's worth) and is currently on track to become a researcher of astroph... |
6c371121-8f70-41fe-bca8-849388d14f87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generic Modafinil sales begin?
Due to agreements with the patent holder, Cephalon, that were made in 2005-2006 several generics manufacturers are now allowed to sell generic Modafinil. I have found confirmation that the manufacturer Teva has begun selling generic Modafinil, though I haven't seen news about other manu... |
f397d8e8-eb7d-48b9-a973-90dd36a47c83 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I'll do it at some point.I'll answer this message later.I could try this sometime.The most common consequence of these thoughts is a lot of procrastination. The person who has them may genuinely intend to do the task, but with the "when" being vague, there's nothing that would propel them into action.Here are some tho... |
d8f47a4f-f6f0-485c-a481-eda4d587fb09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepMind: The Podcast - Excerpts on AGI
DeepMind: The Podcast - Season 2 was released over the last ~1-2 months. The two episodes most relevant to AGI are:
* The road to AGI - DeepMind: The Podcast (S2, Ep5) and
* The promise of AI with Demis Hassabis - DeepMind: The Podcast (S2, Ep9)
I found a few quotes notewort... |
5f8c1bc2-4623-4d8b-8dee-47f90aed0b98 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | [Week 1] “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import” (Sections 3 to 4.1) by Luke Muehlhauser & Anna Salamon
Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import
3.From AI to Machine Superintelligence
It seems unlikely that humans are near the ceiling of possible intelligences, rather than
simply being the first such intellig... |
ec28d679-9b27-4cd9-9add-5154c310e17d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A Tour of Emerging Cryptographic Technologies | GovAI
A Tour of Emerging
Cryptographic
Technologies
What They Are and
How They Could Matter
May 2021
Ben Garfinkel
Centre for the Governance of AI,
Future of Humanity Institute,
University of Oxford
Abstract
Historically, progress in the /fi.ligaeld of cryptography... |
2f0579ee-6012-4ca6-986c-341d9b82432e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm open for projects (sort of)
I left Google a month ago, and right now don't work. Writing this post in case anyone has interesting ideas what I could do. This isn't an "urgently need help" kind of thing - I have a little bit of savings, right now planning to relax some more weeks and then go into some solo software... |
11bbfdbc-6e07-4764-933f-9433f52e6b1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Defense of Work on Mathematical AI Safety
AI Safety was, a decade ago, nearly synonymous with obscure mathematical investigations of hypothetical agentic systems. Fortunately or unfortunately, this has largely been overtaken by events; the successes of machine learning and the promise, or threat, of large language m... |
733ae3c6-0a5e-44d2-9316-df7ad380fba3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Lead, You Must Stand Up
Followup to: Lonely Dissent
True story: In July, I attended a certain Silicon Valley event. I was not an organizer, or a speaker, or in any other wise involved on an official level; just an attendee. It was an evening event, and after the main presentations were done, much of the audien... |
d42db28b-89f7-43ed-ad3e-fc3cd21cf40c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Summary of Stuart Russell's new book, "Human Compatible"
As part of the [Alignment Newsletter](https://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter), I wrote a summary of *[Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control](https://www.amazon.com/Human-Compatible-Artificial-Intelligence-Problem-ebook/dp/B07N5... |
4e55fbee-f438-4775-8b0a-61490b796123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What am I fighting for?
Status: toward the end of writing this I started reading Suffering-Focused Ethics by Magnus Vinding as well as more Brian Tomasik, and I'm feeling myself value-drift in a more negative direction. It's possible I will endorse none of what follows fairly soon.
If you want to link to the higher-... |
4c1c1dd7-7d45-44dc-afca-39e31af93b0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best-of-n with misaligned reward models for Math reasoning
In this post, I share some quick results that I got as part of a bigger project that pivoted.
TL;DR:
* When trying to generate Math reasoning with current LLMs, optimizing too hard against their judgment of what is “good reasoning” can make the proportion o... |
c1a99597-9b70-41db-b0a7-4c35608311ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Peekskill Lyme Incidence
Let's say you're considering moving your nonprofit out of the Bay Area, and are considering somewhere in the Hudson Valley, perhaps near Peekskill NY. Looking at CDC maps it seems like Lyme is something to consider:
The dots are close enough together in the Northeast, however, that this map... |
66f8bdd5-4040-4830-8b63-95ea8cafc61e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What failure looks like
The stereotyped image of AI catastrophe is a powerful, malicious AI system that takes its creators by surprise and quickly achieves a decisive advantage over the rest of humanity.
I think this is probably not what failure will look like, and I want to try to paint a more realistic picture. I’l... |
52ca91e6-1802-4b70-92c0-8e701abfc36d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Prodigy of Refutation
My Childhood Death Spiral described the core momentum carrying me into my mistake, an affective death spiral around something that Eliezer1996 called "intelligence". I was also a technophile, pre-allergized against fearing the future. And I'd read a lot of science fiction built around personh... |
75fde3f4-acd7-4570-abc8-42bc186134f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What currents of thought on LessWrong do you want to see distilled?
The question is inspired by a few comments and a question I have seen recently. The first is a discussion in the 2019 Review post on the subject of research debt; the second a question from johnswentworth asking what people's confusions are about simu... |
c26289cd-477f-42b4-848c-b1bc0b2a1a94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoid inflationary use of terms
Inflationary terms! You see them everywhere. And for those who actually know and care about the subject matter they can be very frustrating. These terms are notorious for being used in contexts where:
1. They are only loosely applicable at best.
2. There exists a better word that is ... |
dc162b2e-930e-4424-9096-b89b45fd258d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Convincing Your Brain That Humanity is Evil is Easy
Epistemic Status: Based on my own experience and intuitions only.
Some reasoning heuristics, that the brain uses, seem to rely on that there is limited information available. And newspapers, TV, and search engines break them hard.
Assume, that you want to evaluate ... |
f70cded0-ec4b-4611-b3f6-fb9e505402d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Transluce — A Letter from the Founders
We are launching an independent research lab that builds open, scalable technology for understanding AI systems and steering them in the public interest.
Transluce means to shine light through something to reveal its structure. Today’s complex AI systems are difficul... |
4ff56ef4-2cc3-4c0d-8d32-38cb88ddd944 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1816
YouTube link Many people in the AI alignment space have heard of AI safety via debate - check out episode 6 of AXRP if you need a primer. But how do we get language models to the stage where they can usefully implement debate? In this episode, I talk to Geoffrey Irving about the role of language models in... |
dbd92b72-328a-40f6-99b6-80c5acb81a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the net effect of memes that call out the huge impact of big players in climate change?
I've noticed whenever some government or huge company makes a drastic harm to the environment (or generates the false impression of doing so) this specific kind of meme emerges...
Memes that contrast the huge impact big p... |
6dd07e6d-1d3b-4b92-8628-03f6a1eb18d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Category of finite sets
[This page is more of a definition page; it's not really intended to explain anything, because all the necessary explanations should already have been done in finite_set.](https://arbital.com/p/comment:)
The category of finite sets is a nice easy [category](https://arbital.com/p/4c7) to work i... |
e44cba31-5b12-451f-ab93-f80002713d3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What can the principal-agent literature tell us about AI risk?
This work was done collaboratively with Tom Davidson.
Thanks to Paul Christiano, Ben Garfinkel, Daniel Garrett, Robin Hanson, Philip Trammell and Takuro Yamashita for helpful comments and discussion. Errors our own.
Introduction
The AI alignment problem... |
6bf3128f-7819-45f8-ab81-72d67a940d8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 6 - Debate and Imitative Generalization with Beth Barnes
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it’s bee... |
30d0dd89-8b39-4647-a223-6872daec463a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Masking to Avoid Missing Things
About a year ago I wrote that I'd now:
> follow official guidance and mask regulations, cheerfully go along with precautions others need, and test+isolate when sick, but I'm not going to go above and beyond to attempt to reduce spread the way I did for earlier parts of the pandemic.
... |
73ed5824-7adb-476c-9aaf-3503c1c36df2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiments, iterations and the scientific method
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/experiments-iterations-and-the-scientific-method
----------------------------------------
Today, an ordinary day. I woke up at 6am. It was still dark out. I did a quick self-check.
> "Did I wake up with energy?" No not reall... |
98fe9b3b-16ab-4cda-97bb-ac6d3eb368bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: "A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange"
From Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange. |
f058b187-9f9a-4df3-8888-415208c8104d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ineffective Response to COVID-19 and Risk Compensation
UPDATE: This post was written and reflects an earlier set of my beliefs. I have updated significantly in a number of ways since it was posted, based on both external events and research, and no longer endorse it.
Epistemic status: I have a mental model that I thi... |
e997f0e0-6592-4de6-abee-c66257c674bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Light activates amaglyda triggering hunting in mice
|
d63c4f34-dfc6-491c-884c-2fc991c275a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Setting Up Metaethics
Today's post, Setting Up Metaethics was originally published on 28 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> What exactly does a correct theory of metaethics need to look like?
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of... |
8a552bc7-7b18-4d8d-b10a-0be75f431a74 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Randal Koene on brain understanding before whole brain emulation
Background / Context
====================
Some people, including me, think that it will be very hard and risky to write and run Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) code without risking catastrophic accidents—up to and including human extinction (see f... |
fc3b12a7-a840-4167-b120-851358769f33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick heuristic for evaluating elites (or anyone else)
Summary: suppose that for some reason you want to figure out how a society works or worked in a given time and place, largely you want to see if it is a meritocracy where productive people get ahead and thus conditions are roughly fair and efficient, or is it mo... |
f85ab56f-7876-4108-8527-a5ae19573550 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does taking extreme measures to avoid the coronavirus make sense when you factor in the possibility of a really long life?
Some back of the napkin math. Suppose we:
* Value a QUALY at $50k.
* Use an expected lifespan of 10k years. Perhaps you expect a 1% chance of living 1M years due to the possibility of a friend... |
24b91d4e-f28f-4efe-8535-88deda0c2783 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Make more land
We used to make land. We built long wharves for docking ships, and then over time filled in the areas between them. Later we built up mudflats wholesale to make even larger areas. Here's a map of Boston showing how much of the land wasn't previously dry:
(Map reproduction courtesy of the Norman B. Lev... |
6033718e-63b0-4816-9949-86b7c7e97ce0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Intuitive Explanation of AIXI
[AIXI](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/aixi) is a mathematical notion of an ideal RL agent, developed by Marcus Hutter. The famous formula for AIXI is as follows:
ak=argmaxak∑okrkmaxak+1∑ok+1rk+1…∑omrm[rk+⋯+rm]∑q:q(a1…ak)=o1r1…omrm2−l(q).mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; t... |
db901228-4265-4361-8de4-a86cf6295e10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Not using a priori information for Russian propaganda
(The first version was written extremely poorly and received a lot of bad marks, so I hesitated to publish it for a long time, now this is the second version)
I live in Russia, so I regularly encounter samples of Putin's propaganda, and apparently, due to the effe... |
12424143-ff1f-4c0e-95f2-5bcbc970d707 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Dorset Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Dorset Meetup
WHEN: 29 August 2012 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Starbucks Coffee, 4 New Bond St, Weymouth, DT4 8LY
The second Dorset meetup will be 2pm on Wednesday 29th August at Starbucks, Weymouth. (There will be a sign on the table.)
Please leave a commen... |
dbc9edc0-9bc5-42c0-996b-28aa3babd2db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Missing forecasting tools: from catalogs to a new kind of prediction market
Introduction
It’s possible to make quantitative forecasting (forecasting by software) significantly more easy and fun by adding some missing pieces to the forecasting ecosystem. Let’s do it.
The models I’m interested in are “gears” and not “b... |
6df8fc39-79ff-43be-8451-571949f89e84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: A model of biases as arising from meta-beliefs
There are hundreds of documented cognitive biases, but new research suggests that many of them load onto just a handful of meta-beliefs such as:
* My experience is a good reference
* I make correct assessments of the world
* I am good
* My group is a reason... |
d5fd20c5-13ec-4118-9630-fe2112665e7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some interesting examples of risks measured in micromorts?
A micromort is a 1-in-a-million chance of death. Wikipedia's article has a few examples of risks of death measured in micromorts, but it seems like there must be a lot more of them. What are some interesting examples you use as a baseline for comparis... |
4eb9cda0-151f-4919-b447-b39b29c7392a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesianism Unwrapped
Introduction
Infra-Bayesianism is a recent theoretical framework in AI Alignment, coming from Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor (Alexander Appel). It provides the groundwork for a learning theory of RL in the non-realizable case (when the hypothesis is not included in the hypothesis space), whic... |
2eb026a4-69a5-4859-83a1-085b9cc96d50 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is there evidence that recommender systems are changing users' preferences?
In *Human Compatible*, Stuart Russell makes an argument that I have heard him make repeatedly (I believe on the 80K podcast and the FLI conversation with Steven Pinker). He suggests a pretty bold and surprising claim:
> [C]onsider how conten... |
08020779-460d-425e-9b87-9177c5b4c135 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some "meta-cruxes" for AI x-risk debates
[Epistemic status: As I say below, I've been thinking about this topic for several years and I've worked on it as part of my PhD research. But none of this is based on any rigorous methodology, just my own impressions from reading the literature.]
I've been thinking about poss... |
048da192-af93-45e2-a89d-1409ef9a9f3a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Paper Walkthrough: Automated Circuit Discovery with Arthur Conmy
Arthur Conmy's [Automated Circuit Discovery](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.14997.pdf) is a great paper that makes initial forays into automating parts of mechanistic interpretability (specifically, automatically finding a sparse subgraph for a circuit). In ... |
c2af9c24-6073-42ed-a8fc-e3dc86b3d819 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I expected from this site: A LessWrong review
LessWrong is the central discussion space for the Rationalist subculture. The Rationalists write extensively about what they expect from the world, so I in turn have expectations from them. Each point is my expectation vs what I see.
Track Records and Accountability... |
f6ec2cdd-b168-4256-9161-cc07a13e8441 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One-step hypothetical preferences
Human preferences are time-inconsistent, and also contradictory.
That, by itself, is not a huge problem, but it's also the case that few human preferences are present at any given moment. At the moment, I'm focused on finding the best explanation to get my ideas through to you, the r... |
60a99542-baf2-428f-b6d0-9c9ae01800c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | COVID-19 Group Testing Post-mortem?
As Covid is for the most part over and tests have not been in short supply for a very long time now, eliminating most of the rationale for complicated testing procedures meant to optimize test count/cost, it would be interesting for anyone who was involved in this to do a retrospect... |
7b68823d-0102-436f-afe0-905db920abc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lesswrong 2016 Survey
It’s time for a new survey!
Take the survey now
The details of the last survey can be found here. And the results can be found here.
I posted a few weeks back asking for suggestions for questions to include on the survey. As much as we’d like to include more of them, we all know what ha... |
00dd173b-85e6-4322-95c2-1e8fdbde9eff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, August 12-18, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
25ad73d4-8d39-437e-a793-60c4c1311d28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
WHEN: 26 February 2017 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg 4th floor, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
No parking restrictions on weekends, so park wh... |
185bfbbe-0484-4cb8-9a9a-65e2f2dcb385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Methodology: Contagious Beliefs
Simulating Political Alignment
This methodology concerns a simulation tool which has been developed to model how beliefs, that are not directly related, end up correlated in political identities. It models the transmission of beliefs between nodes on a static hexagonal grid, based on a ... |
9366e06b-b54f-4f4f-9c55-500bf35bcf15 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Episodic Curiosity through Reachability
1 Introduction
---------------
11footnotetext: Shared first authorship.
Many real-world tasks have sparse rewards. For example, animals searching for food may need to go many miles without any reward from the environment. Standard reinforcement learning algorithms struggle wi... |
ed501e7f-c660-4f09-97ec-ca7a25c9e1de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers
One thing that most puzzles me about Eliezer's writings on AI is his apparent belief that a small organization like MIRI is likely to be able to beat larger organizations like Google or the US Department of Defense to building human-level AI. In fact, he seems to ... |
9974b51f-616a-48c3-ac7f-40edbcc3e08d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Active reward learning
Active Reward Learning
Christian Daniel, Malte Viering, Jan Metz, Oliver Kroemer, Jan Petersy
Institut f ¨ur Intelligente Autonome Systeme, Technische Universit ¨at Darmstadt, 64289, Germany
yMax-Planck-Institut f ¨ur Intelligente Systeme, T ¨ubingen, 72076, Germany
Email:fdaniel, kroemer,... |
700cc5bc-0082-483e-8150-4e9175497e67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there really no ghosts in the machine?
My previous article on this article went down like a server running on PHP (quite deservedly I might add). You can all rest assured that I won't be attempting any clickbait titles again for the foreseeable future. I also believe that the whole H+ article is written in a very ... |
fc465c13-0cb9-4c8d-91ce-0b9150111b40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consistent Plato
A putative new idea for AI control; index here. The idea here is somewhat underdeveloped.
I've been suggesting AI designs that are not exactly expected-utility maximisers, while wondering if such designs could be stable under self improvement/subagent creation/general stuff. And also wondering what d... |
3c588c44-f3a5-4d91-bb89-12b6ed09e371 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : University of Maryland
Discussion article for the meetup : University of Maryland
WHEN: 16 September 2011 06:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: University of Maryland, University of Maryland - College Park, STAMP
There are a few LessWrong readers at UMD. Let's meet up! We're meeting in Terrapin Room B, in the Student ... |
f84ec431-8483-4eee-a63f-cf258d000ad6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Opportunities for Impact Beyond the EU AI Act
Summary
=======
* The EU AI Act trilogues are coming to a close in the coming weeks. It appears likely that the final iteration of the act will include regulations covering foundation models.
* The window for effecting change here has not yet closed and is likely to exte... |
afcca7e4-8b5e-4df4-9849-513ff8d73600 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Month's Resolutions
If you have a goal that can be credibly achieved by the end of the month reply to this post. At the end of the month everybody who posted writes up their experiences, lessons in overcoming akrasia etc. as a reply to their original comment or by editing the original.
Whether you want to share t... |
6578650a-9ee3-4bcb-90a0-1d05f4ad5df6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Post-crash market efficiency 1696-2020
WHAT DO past stock market crashes tell us about the weak-form Efficient-Market Hypothesis? In a meltdown, do prices become more predictable?
In theory, they instantly adjust to all public information. Hence technical analysis – predicting future stock prices from patterns in pas... |
d9529650-37b0-4bcb-9956-1363cc9e7175 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building intuition with spaced repetition systems
Do you ever go to a lecture, follow it thinking it makes total sense, then look back at your notes later and realize it makes no sense? This used to happen to me, but I’ve learned how to use spaced repetition to fully avoid this if I want. I’m going to try to convey th... |
05e87601-a9ec-410f-b0a6-2ae8b681d2c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PRINCIPLES OF PERCEPTION
It is relevant that one should pay attention in the tiniest bits of the location they find themselves in. From this bit of habit, a lot of things will cease to confound the mind. How much we can predict circumstances by relying on previous data depends on how much we have programmed our minds ... |
ec6d0529-938d-4497-acff-63f2efc1ea52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shannon's Surprising Discovery
Imagine that you’re a telecom provider in the early 20th century. You provide both telephone lines and telegraph lines - audio and binary. These two systems face quite different design constraints.
The telegraph line only needs to be able to distinguish between high and low voltage. If ... |
0136d424-7b37-4d46-a87d-a2dfe360ea56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can I determine that Elicit is not some weak AGI's attempt at taking over the world ?
I read two days ago the Elicit presentation post, and as I have been reading intensely about AI safety lately, I was wondering this question : What are the tools and techniques you would use right now to determine that the curren... |
da137669-992b-4a9f-9392-a1f289e5313a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best effort beliefs
Alice: Hey Bob, how's it going?
Bob: Pretty good. How about you?
Alice: Pretty good. What are you drinking?
Bob: A Bayeslight.
Alice: Cool. Hey bartender, lemme get one of those as well.
Alice: Hey, have you seen President Hanson's new immigration policy?
Bob: No. What is it?
Alice: He's shu... |
90e5f42e-e622-44bb-bdf4-2604f5996c6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio New Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio New Meetup
WHEN: 28 June 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Copalli Cafe 555 W Bitters Rd, San Antonio, TX 78216
Coffee and discussion at Copalli Cafe! All are welcome!
New Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWrong in San Anto... |
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