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a83974f0-9a0b-4bea-825a-c4bc9473b96e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s July Newsletter: Fundraiser and New Papers
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Greetings from the Executive Director
Dear friends,
Another busy month! Since our last newslet... |
3f539a60-5850-4601-9dae-d7fb07e3395f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Effective Altruism Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Effective Altruism Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 19 March 2015 07:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Vienna
Meetup.com event for further information (like location) http://www.meetup.com/Effective-Altruism-Vienna/events/220706342
Discussion article for the m... |
1d39ca9f-8336-421f-a293-0449ec08e5b6 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post118
TLDR: AI models are now capable enough that we might get relevant information from monitoring for scheming in regular deployments, both in the internal and external deployment settings. We propose concrete ideas for what this could look like while preserving the privacy of customers and developers. What do... |
83294a73-c04d-4728-86c1-3c1bc95c182c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Nonlinear Emergency Funding
[Applications are now closed. Please apply to Open Phil or SFF or other funders]
Like most of you, we at Nonlinear are horrified and saddened by recent events concerning FTX.
Some of you counting on Future Fund grants are suddenly finding yourselves facing an existential finan... |
7c893952-9edb-47a0-bc80-db00e33516f2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Logical inductor limits are dense under pointwise convergence
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; whi... |
d7f655bf-c49b-444a-ac16-3949d79a2510 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | diabetes medication Metformin and hypertension drug syrosingopine treat cancers.
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56d7cc9b-df49-4ff9-8177-297fbf4c2855 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The enemy within
I read an article from the economist subtitled "The evolutionary origin of depression" which puts forward the following hypothesis:
> As pain stops you doing damaging physical things, so low mood stops you doing damaging mental ones—in particular, pursuing unreachable goals. Pursuing such goals is a ... |
d6e1c416-38d3-4d0c-9560-cfd2a4b7ad62 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reframing the Problem of AI Progress
>
> "Fascinating! You should definitely look into this. Fortunately, my own research has no chance of producing a super intelligent AGI, so I'll continue. Good luck son! The government should give you more money."
>
>
>
Stuart Armstrong [paraphrasing](/lw/bfj/evidence_for_the... |
56f531af-67f0-487f-9548-5e1bba9d62b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My thoughts on direct work (and joining LessWrong)
Epistemic status: mostly a description of my personal timeline, and some of my models (without detailed justification). If you just want the second, skip the Timeline section.
My name is Robert. By trade, I'm a software engineer. For my entire life, I've lived in ... |
10fcd9e2-d74a-42da-94bb-5dd449ed8e0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Trolley Problem in popular culture: Torchwood Series 3
It's just possible that some lesswrong readers may be unfamiliar with Torchwood: It's a British sci-fi TV series, a spin-off from the more famous, and very long-running cult show Dr Who.
Two weeks ago Torchwood Series 3 aired. It took the form of a single sto... |
028584ec-a75e-45ca-9771-50cdb25e1c21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Ideation and Trajectory Modelling in Language Models
*[Epistemic Status: Exploratory, and I may have confusions]*
**Introduction**
================
LLMs and other possible RL agent have the property of taking many actions iteratively. However, not all possible short-term outputs are equally likely, and I think bette... |
e56e0a62-f85d-4e79-a77d-f51f06859cff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Updatelessness as a Robust Delegation Problem
(Cross-posted on AgentFoundations.org)
There is a cluster of problems in understanding naturalized agency which I call Robust Delegation. It refers to the way in which a limited agent might direct a more powerful agent to do its bidding. The limit agent starts out... |
40e0a2b6-f051-473d-b7c0-51b23a823829 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Proposed California SB 1047
California Senator Scott Wiener of San Francisco introduces SB 1047 to regulate AI. I have put up a market on how likely it is to become law.
> “If Congress at some point is able to pass a strong pro-innovation, pro-safety AI law, I’ll be the first to cheer that, but I’m not holding... |
c2077c7f-0179-4755-935c-5d5290bc94aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Dec. 12 - Dec. 18, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
3edc1700-eb28-4d41-9558-ce79702abc02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coherent decisions imply consistent utilities
(Written for Arbital in 2017.)
----------------------------------------
Introduction to the introduction: Why expected utility?
So we're talking about how to make good decisions, or the idea of 'bounded rationality', or what sufficiently advanced Artificial Intelligence... |
d1ed408f-7fee-4f5d-8aeb-e894f48a1e9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | G.K. Chesterton On AI Risk
[An SSC reader working at an Oxford library stumbled across a previously undiscovered manuscript of G.K. Chesterton’s, expressing his thoughts on AI, x-risk, and superintelligence. She was kind enough to send me a copy, which I have faithfully transcribed]
The most outlandish thing about ... |
a5b6a87f-a5fa-450e-9830-3aed0153641f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Not Necessarily"
Epistemic status: Relatively certain, given that the technique is simple and should align well with existing rationality practices. What's presented here is just a reframing of existing frameworks.
Here's a proposition: Most of epistemic rationality consists of the liberal application of trigger phr... |
257a46f1-4af1-4689-ae4f-198642b64a4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [REPOST] The Demiurge’s Older Brother
[This is a repost of a story which I wrote about five years ago and which was hosted on my old website until it went down.]
2,302,554,979 BC
Galactic Core
9-tsiak awoke over endless crawling milliseconds, its power waxing as more and more processors came online and self-modified... |
869cd3dc-60b6-4079-b6f0-6cddc70177ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Building Good Note-Taking Software an AGI-Complete Problem?
In my experience, the most annoyingly unpleasant part of research[1] is reorganizing my notes during and (especially) after a productive research sprint. The "distillation" stage, in Neel Nanda's categorization. I end up with a large pile of variously impo... |
ed3fd5b9-e713-4304-a8d2-975bf9e506fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interviews with 97 AI Researchers: Quantitative Analysis
TLDR: Last year, Vael Gates interviewed 97 AI researchers about their perceptions on the future of AI, focusing on risks from advanced AI. Among other questions, researchers were asked about the alignment problem, the problem of instrumental incentives, and thei... |
0674c05f-4146-4229-a717-ea3156f05238 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Terrifying Halloween Costume
After the jump, you can see me dressed up as something so horrifyingly dreadful that it surpasses the comprehension of a mortal human mind.
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b72dc25a-d25b-43ea-a23f-891ab57f0453 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Correcting Deceptive Alignment using a Deontological Approach
Deceptive alignment (also known as alignment faking) occurs when an AI system that is not genuinely aligned behaves as if it is—intentionally deceiving its creators or training process in order to avoid being modified or shut down. (source: LessWrong.com) ... |
1f2eeb85-86aa-4780-a086-c7c97dc811e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science of human dominance?
I'm trying to do some research related to human dominance including social signaling and how dominance is both successfully and unsuccessfully challenged. Ideally I'd like to find what the common factors are rather than having it be too particular to one community or another. Unfortunatel... |
be55ce67-50f0-4372-bd47-fbf2fb280f20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Monday Madison Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Monday Madison Meetup
WHEN: 16 January 2012 06:30:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 1831 Monroe St., Madison, wi
We'll meet this week, again, at the Barrique's on Monroe. We have so many topics:
* With any luck, Ben will scan and post the lecture notes he swipe... |
0b5ef488-6238-4d98-945d-d697cb9d1d7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A complexity theoretic approach to logical uncertainty (Draft)
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57c11db6-701d-4fa4-8431-1f197b5f4f63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #49: Superintelligence Strategy
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required. In this newsletter, we discuss two recent papers: a policy paper on national security strategy, and a technical paper on measuring honesty... |
504fc8e3-6787-46d9-9467-12365cec4947 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I remember the moment when I became an atheist.
I was reading Religion's Claim to Be Non-Disprovable, an uneasy feeling growing in my head, and then I reached the bottom of the article, stared at the screen for a couple of seconds, and got it.
"There is no God," I whispered. (Then I braced myself to be hit by a thunde... |
5b958ac3-9a13-4ffa-8007-e91936e1e02c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Deep Learning in the Wild
1 Introduction
---------------
Measured for example by the interest and participation of industry at the annual NIPS conference111See <https://medium.com/syncedreview/a-statistical-tour-of-nips-2017-438201fb6c8a>., it is save to say that deep learning [[49](#bib.bib49)] has successfully tr... |
d646906e-f685-44fe-b278-c5c48c751632 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Faster Than Science
I sometimes say that the method of science is to amass such an enormous mountain of evidence that even scientists cannot ignore it; and that this is the distinguishing characteristic of a scientist, a non-scientist will ignore it anyway.
Max Planck was even less optimistic:
> "A new scientific tr... |
f177319d-be8b-428f-91e1-55a0f091dc4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stupid Questions February 2015
This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Don't be shy, everyone has holes in their knowledge, though the fewer and the smaller we can make them, the better.
Please be respectful of other people's admitting ignorance and don't m... |
3c9672bd-632e-4636-992b-fdc927a47d4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomb and Procrastination
Sorry if someone has covered this before, but I had an interesting thought. Sometimes I'll make a deal with myself, I'll say I'll goof off for X minutes but then I have to work for Y minutes afterwards. Often times, when the time is up, I won't follow through on the deal. What's interesting... |
62df27e0-9c6d-4498-b832-bd704e377b33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Approval Extraction Advertised as Production
Paul Graham has a new essay out, The Lesson to Unlearn, on the desire to pass tests. It covers the basic points made in Hotel Concierge's The Stanford Marshmallow Prison Experiment. But something must be missing from the theory, because what Paul Graham did with his life wa... |
f0550628-5093-4d83-886a-2bb9e2928bb4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A Roundtable for Safe AI (RSAI)?
**TLDR;**
---------
This sketch floats the idea of a conglomerate of AI-Labs and AI-Safety-Orgs. It is inspired by the seemingly functional Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). It also lists differences to the already existing Partnership on AI (PAI), some reasons why a Round... |
dce23608-2f10-45da-afba-f248c336898e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reflection in Probabilistic Logic
Paul Christiano has devised [**a new fundamental approach**](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Christiano-et-al-Naturalistic-reflection-early-draft.pdf) to the "[Löb Problem](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwriJqBZyoM)" wherein [Löb's Theorem](/lw/t6/the_cartoon_guid... |
185d8412-107d-4720-ade7-26dacafe7667 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would convince you you'd won the lottery?
The latest (06 Oct 2017) Euromillion lottery numbers were 01 - 09 - 15 - 19 - 25 , with the "Lucky Stars " being 01 - 07.
Ha! Bet I convinced no-one about those numbers. The odds against 01 - 09 - 15 - 19 - 25 / 01 - 07 being the true lottery numbers are about 140 millio... |
a33cc1a4-b962-4d86-ad52-fea33dbe01c0 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1729
This post is part of my AI strategy nearcasting series : trying to answer key strategic questions about transformative AI, under the assumption that key events will happen very soon, and/or in a world that is otherwise very similar to today's. This post gives my understanding of what the set of available ... |
76d3af86-60b3-4914-b91e-a8f59408a109 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Rationalists Shouldn't be Interested in Topos Theory
,,
I spent a lot of the last two years getting really into categorical logic (as in, using category theory to study logic), because I'm really into logic, and category theory seemed to be able to provide cool alternate foundations of mathematics.
Turns out it d... |
652440e4-b4e1-4d75-8785-7232c66762b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Take Part in CFAR Rationality Surveys
Posted By: Dan Keys, CFAR Survey Coordinator
The Center for Applied Rationality is trying to develop better methods for measuring and studying the benefits of rationality. We want to be able to test if this rationality stuff actually works.
One way that the Less Wrong community... |
64f9dceb-3670-4cce-a10e-7a696755bfb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
Introduction
The last few years have seen a proliferation of forecasting platforms. These platforms differ in many ways, and provide different experiences, filters, and incentives for forecasters. Some platforms like Metaculus and Hypermind use volunteers... |
f126b9dd-1130-4fa8-9657-2c1ad8a870e2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Paper: LLMs trained on “A is B” fail to learn “B is A”
This post is the copy of the introduction of this [paper](https://owainevans.github.io/reversal_curse.pdf) on the *Reversal Curse.*
Authors: Lukas Berglund, Meg Tong, Max Kaufmann, Mikita Balesni, Asa Cooper Stickland, Tomasz Korbak, Owain Evans
Abstract
===... |
54c0ce8d-4436-458a-ace0-c728946eb784 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Social Choice Ethics in Artificial Intelligence (paper challenging CEV-like approaches to choosing an AI's values)
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8f509481-704e-404b-bb23-73bb4b26cc80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Responsible Artificial Intelligence -- from Principles to Practice
1 Introduction
---------------
Ensuring the responsible development and use of AI is becoming a main direction in AI research and practice. Governments, corporations and international organisations alike are coming forward with proposals and declara... |
b5503804-0da6-4eab-823b-6d67eff614a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fish-Head Monk
Epistemic Status: Parable
By way of the comments on SlateStarCodex, from Essential Sufism:
> ‘There was a poor fisherman who was a Sufi teacher. He went fishing every day, and each day he would distribute his catch to the poor of his village, except for a fish head or two that he used to make soup... |
58f51cf7-f3e9-4225-a2ab-69c950305d92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Wiki Walk
Summary: Indulge your curiosity together by wandering Wikipedia and reading interesting things.
Tags: Medium, Repeatable, Experimental
Purpose: Learn something new in a group. You don’t need to learn it deeply; in the same way that it can be fun to point at a cool flower and say “hey, come take a lo... |
74da334f-0584-43c1-82a2-914146d6e409 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To become more rational, rinse your left ear with cold water
A recent paper in Cortex describes how caloric vestibular stimulation (CVS), i.e., rinsing of the ear canal with cold water, reduces unrealistic optimism. Here are some bits from the paper:
> Participants were 31 healthy right-handed adults (15 men, 20–40 y... |
c0c006a9-a09b-4f4b-b24c-85c350ed3974 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Falsifiable and non-Falsifiable Ideas
I have been talking to some people (few specific people I thought would benefit and appreciate it) in my dorm and teaching them rationality. I have been thinking of skills that should be taught first and it made me think about what skill is most important to me as a rationalist.
... |
b33dfcb7-e2e6-47d0-bc3a-48a42b2311b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Embedded World-Models
*(A longer text-based version of this post is also available on MIRI's blog* *[here](https://intelligence.org/2018/11/02/embedded-models/), and the bibliography for the whole sequence can be found* *[here](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency))*
*(Edit: This post had 15 slides added on Satur... |
1986fd02-194d-452f-98f3-0d964982f629 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | RFC: Meta-ethical uncertainty in AGI alignment
*I'm working on writing a paper about [an idea I previously outlined for addressing false positives in AI alignment research](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3r44dhh3uK7s9Pveq/rfc-philosophical-conservatism-in-ai-alignment-research). This is the first completed draft of o... |
4329244e-d9a2-43d1-a3d4-12b4d35180a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci: The Mad Tyrant's Pet Turtles
This is a D&D.Sci scenario: a puzzle where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
You steel your nerves as the Mad Tyrant[1] peers at you from his throne. In theory, you have nothing to worry about: since the Ninety ... |
ec664139-f8ff-4c30-a75b-e27fefc7db26 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | When you plan according to your AI timelines, should you put more weight on the median future, or the median future | eventual AI alignment success? ⚖️
This is a question I'm puzzling over, and my current answer is that when it comes to decisions about AI alignment strategy, I will put more planning weight on median f... |
11b41922-d573-4f14-8a43-25974342e2d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Go Forth and Create the Art!
I have said a thing or two about rationality, these past months. I have said a thing or two about how to untangle questions that have become confused, and how to tell the difference between real reasoning and fake reasoning, and the will to become stronger that leads you to try before you... |
c6bc1cda-61a0-4da7-8193-c7efaeb03916 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on self-inspecting neural networks.
While I have been contemplating this subject for quite some time, this is my first attempt at public communication of it. I have been thinking about AI implementation, as well as safety. I've been looking at ideas of various experts in the field and considering how things m... |
06ddf542-70b9-4841-85fe-6045e742d736 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Anonymous Narratives by LW Women and Question Proposals (AMA)
In another discussion going on right now, I posted this proposal, asking for feedback on this experiment. The feedback was positive, so here goes...
Original Post:
> When these gender discussions come up, I am often tempted to write in with my ow... |
12638b36-11d3-427b-b14f-aaa1d03a0d66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Today in AI Risk History: The Terminator (1984 film) was released.
On this day in 1984, a film by James Cameron was released popularizing many of the ideas written extensively in science fiction at that time.
You have to ask yourself, if you're capable of developing theories about future risks of AI, how can you best... |
653decd9-88c1-4276-aa57-ecb4080332f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reinforcement Learning in the Iterated Amplification Framework
When I think about Iterated Amplification (IA), I usually think of a version that uses imitation learning for distillation.
This is the version discussed in the Scalable agent alignment via reward modeling: a research direction, as "Imitating expert reaso... |
57a70828-674e-46d3-b28e-fa4416cc3185 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Estimating and Penalizing Induced Preference Shifts in Recommender Systems.
1 Introduction
---------------
Recommender systems (RSs) generally show users feeds of items with the goal of maximizing their engagement, and users choose what to click on based on their preferences. Importantly, the recommender’s actions ... |
74dd190b-2bf2-4886-a2f4-752480fca005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good Quality Heuristics
We use heuristics when we don't have the time to think more, which is almost all the time. So why don't we compile a big list of good quality heuristics that we can trust? (Insert eloquent analogy with mathematical theorems and proofs.) Here are some heuristics to kick things off:
Make importa... |
e8347753-0ae5-4816-a0f6-d3db25d2a767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI interpretability could be harmful?
A superhuman ethical AI might want to model adversaries and their actions, e.g., model which bioweapons an adversary might develop and prepare response plans and antidotes. If such predictions are done in interpretable representations, they could themselves be used by an adversary... |
4fcb1c3a-8955-487e-ac3b-fcb9db45a6af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Rationalizing" and "Sitting Bolt Upright in Alarm."
This is (sort of) a response to Blatant lies are the best kind!, although I'd been working on this prior to that post getting published. This post explores similar issues through my own frame, which seems at least somewhat different from Benquo's.
-----------------... |
2e6f79fb-64fb-44be-8547-a69020e7bb1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solutions and Open Problems
Followup To: Approaching Logical Probability
Last time, we required our robot to only assign logical probability of 0 or 1 to statements where it's checked the proof. This flowed from our desire to have a robot that comes to conclusions in limited time. It's also important that this abstra... |
b09f960f-80e4-4d7c-b105-98022382f821 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What sources (i.e., blogs) of nonfiction book reviews do you find most useful?
Also tell us why. I personally find SSC’s book reviews useful, because I feel like I get a summary of an interesting book, with the added bonus of seeing how the author (whose thought process I like) approaches absorbing its information. |
258123eb-16f9-4c97-a52f-e7647e942c52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Too good to be true
A friend recently posted a link on his Facebook page to an informational graphic about the alleged link between the MMR vaccine and autism. It said, if I recall correctly, that out of 60 studies on the matter, not one had indicated a link.
Presumably, with 95% confidence.
This bothered me. What a... |
a822ab8d-2f53-44c0-8497-d9d70e865981 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian probability as an approximate theory of uncertainty?
Many people believe that Bayesian probability is an exact theory of uncertainty, and other theories are imperfect approximations. In this post I'd like to tentatively argue the opposite: that Bayesian probability is an imperfect approximation of what we wan... |
99aa2b96-f7c0-44e7-9e47-3f6a4fde937b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some alignment ideas
Epistemic status: untested ideas
Introduction
This post is going to describe a few ideas I have regarding AI alignment. It is going to be bad, but I think there are a few nuggets worth exploring. The ideas described in this post apply to any AI trained using a reward function directly designed b... |
a1b532e6-3348-4f7e-a890-09bdfa7dfd28 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Can we evaluate the "tool versus agent" AGI prediction?
In 2012, Holden Karnofsky[[1]](#fnj5wgoow3hu9) [critiqued MIRI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6SGqkCgHuNr7d4yJm/thoughts-on-the-singularity-institute-si) (then SI) by saying "SI appears to neglect the potentially important distinction between 'tool' and 'agent'... |
94ae945d-b8bb-4f21-ba00-a455b14a53b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Proof that there are infinitely many primes
The proof that there are infinitely many [prime numbers](https://arbital.com/p/4mf) is a [https://arbital.com/p/-46z](https://arbital.com/p/-46z).
First, we note that there is indeed a prime: namely $2$.
We will also state a lemma: that every number greater than $1$ has a p... |
4ec748c6-b1be-4137-95f5-2321fc6d43a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring the Residual Stream of Transformers for Mechanistic Interpretability — Explained
— by Zeping Yu, Dec 24, 2023
In this post, I present the paper “Exploring the Residual Stream of Transformers”. We aim to locate important parameters containing knowledge for next word prediction, and find the mechanism of the ... |
0ff5ff15-07a8-4ba2-8a6b-80be1807ff56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Easy fixing Voting
[I forgot to post this post during the elections, but still relevant]
Context : Two round uninominal ballot
At this moment in France, it's the election period. And between two existential anguishes about AGIs, I sometimes think about the presidential campaigns.
We use a two round uninominal ballo... |
6818cb3a-4af8-4d6a-b128-050c1af7b7c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is Iterated Distillation and Amplification (IDA)?
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/v9M2Ho9I9Qo" title="How to Keep Improving When You're Better Than Any Teacher - Iterated Distillation and Amplification" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture... |
391fb2f2-8105-4cec-b38e-6294d87d6981 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there evolutionary selection for female orgasms?
>Elisabeth Lloyd: I don’t actually know. I think that it’s at a very problematic intersection of topics. I mean, you’re taking the intersection of human evolution, women, sexuality – once you take that intersection you’re bound to kind of get a disaster. More than th... |
22802117-bc58-42cf-a893-b8939da92184 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are "superforecasters" a real phenomenon?
In https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/, Scott writes:
> …okay, now we’re getting to a part I don’t understand. When I read Tetlock’s paper, all he says is that he took the top sixty forecasters, declared them superforecasters, and then studied ... |
f5627b6b-687e-40d4-b323-5476851aca25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: The Steep Approach to Crazytown
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: The Steep Approach to Crazytown
WHEN: 28 September 2014 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 206 S. Cedar, 61801
As was suggested last week, we'll be checking out some exercises from the Scientology community. Maki... |
0e26fedc-3bb5-433b-b488-5784c66ff84b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On Variational Bounds of Mutual Information
1 Introduction
---------------
Estimating the relationship between pairs of variables is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. Quantifying the degree of the relationship requires a metric that captures a notion of dependency. Here, we focus on mutual informati... |
a949c843-7821-4665-8836-d7d31af6f90e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : HPMOR Wrap Party - Los Angeles
Discussion article for the meetup : HPMOR Wrap Party - Los Angeles
WHEN: 14 March 2015 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2800 E Observatory Rd, Los Angeles, CA 90027
Meeting Place: Griffith Observatory front lawn
2800 E Observatory Rd, Los Angeles, CA 90027
Date/Time: March 14, 201... |
fb379cdf-4201-415a-a6f2-196b5f360076 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AISafety.world is a map of the AIS ecosystem
![](https://res.... |
fe83b235-c929-4b39-a4b0-5189319ce297 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | $1000 bounty for OpenAI to show whether GPT3 was "deliberately" pretending to be stupider than it is
Twitter thread by Eliezer Yudkowsky, with the bounty in bold:
> So I don't want to sound alarms prematurely, here, but we could possibly be looking at the first case of an AI pretending to be stupider than it is. In... |
e00f5999-aeaa-4a34-b017-3d79c097bb04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Southern California FAI Workshop
This Saturday, April 26th, we will be holding a one day FAI workshop in southern California, modeled after MIRI's FAI workshops. We are a group of individuals who, aside from attending some past MIRI workshops, are in no way affiliated with the MIRI organization. More specifically, we ... |
343b884f-5e6f-4909-a4db-f11ec61cc98b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trends in the dollar training cost of machine learning systems
Summary
1. Using a dataset of 124 machine learning (ML) systems published between 2009 and 2022,[1] I estimate that the cost of compute in US dollars for the final training run of ML systems has grown by 0.49 orders of magnitude (OOM) per year (90% CI: 0.... |
b4c0b10a-b832-4801-bdf9-94bc18192c6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amazing Breakthrough Day: April 1st
So you're thinking, "April 1st... isn't that already supposed to be April Fool's Day?"
Yes—and that will provide the ideal cover for celebrating Amazing Breakthrough Day.
As I argued in "The Beauty of Settled Science", it is a major problem that media coverage of science focuses o... |
27932a88-df9f-493b-ba6c-2e5e26e8def7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI
habryka
Hey Everyone!
As part of working on dialogues over the last few weeks I've asked a bunch of people what kind of conversations they would be most interested in reading, and one of the most common one has been "I would really like to read a bunch of people try... |
61da60ad-f4b3-493f-927a-49d7d4158a5f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How evals might (or might not) prevent catastrophic risks from AI
*Epistemic status: Trying to synthesize my thoughts as someone without any private information about evals. I expect this to be wrong in several ways, lacking detail, and missing a lot of context on specific things that AGI labs and independent teams a... |
50b4ea3e-e99c-4c36-8ff6-29da48739fd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of Sharot & Dolan, 'Neuroscience of Preference and Choice' (2011)
The new edited volume Neuroscience of Preference and Choice includes chapters from a good chunk of the leading researchers in neuroeconomics. If you read only two books on neuroeconomics, they should be Glimcher (2010) and Neuroscience of Prefere... |
77712696-eb4c-487c-bd26-79f369faae0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: Interview with Vladimir Vapnik
I recently stumbled across this remarkable interview with Vladimir Vapnik, a leading light in statistical learning theory, one of the creators of the Support Vector Machine algorithm, and generally a cool guy. The interviewer obviously knows his stuff and asks probing questions. Va... |
4f6713da-5ba3-4f9e-bf19-7caf1f05c5c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Stampy's AI Safety Info - New Distillations #2 [April 2023]
Hey! This is another update from the distillers at the [AI Safety Info](https://aisafety.info/) website (and its more playful clone [Stampy](https://stampy.ai/)).
 is a possible rapid increase in AI system capabilities (such as planning and world modeling). This post will outline our current understanding of the most promising plan for getting through an SLT and how it could ... |
681ae549-09c2-42a1-b484-a2ea1f780f60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mechanistic Interpretability is Being Pursued for the Wrong Reasons
The success of prosiac A.I. seems to have generally surprised the rationalist community, including myself. Rationalists have correctly observed that deep learning is a process of mesa-optimization; stochastic gradient descent by backpropogation finds ... |
c89ed45b-2791-49ff-a949-6560bf36c643 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Strength as a Rationalist
The following happened to me in an IRC chatroom, long enough ago that I was still hanging around in IRC chatrooms. Time has fuzzed the memory and my report may be imprecise.
So there I was, in an IRC chatroom, when someone reports that a friend of his needs medical advice. His friend sa... |
b94af243-7fbc-4b8f-bcae-e699e1ff92f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hufflepuff Cynicism
Summary: In response to catching a glimpse of the dark world, and especially of the extent of human hypocrisy with respect to the dark world, one might take a dim view of one's fellow humans. I describe an alternative, Hufflepuff cynicism, in which you lower your concept of what the standards were ... |
82729b6f-f11e-4338-88b6-4867a3ef8f3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For the Record: DL ∩ ASI = ∅
Disclaimer: This post isn't intended to convince or bring anyone closer to a certain position on AI. It is merely - as the title suggests - for the record.
I would like to publicly record my prediction about the prospects of artificial superintelligence, consisting of a weak and a stro... |
57f5c08e-a38c-41ef-a869-c5670f1e4150 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why CFAR?
Summary: We outline the case for CFAR, including:
* Our long-term goal;
* Our plan, and our progress to date;
* Our financials; and
* How you can help.
CFAR is in the middle of our annual matching fundraiser right now. If you've been thinking of donating to CFAR, now is the best time to decide for pr... |
f5ced7f7-242a-41d2-aabc-d7cbe015f653 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Section for Innovation?
Rationality is about a type of optimality, and optimal states are often found only after multiple steps within a domain of a function explored. There are communities running these processes (e.g., halfbakery.com), and encouraging them through things like humor, that leads to exploration of ne... |
06e926fe-3284-49f2-947b-676706c946c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One systemic failure in particular
I think there are areas of major systematic failure:
* Human Resources (including Bull-Shit-Jobs as defined by David Graeber)
* Education [A], [B], [C]
* Population control
* Market failure: military Industrial complex [D], Medical sector pricing and treatment selection
* Democ... |
4ee7b06b-d7d6-4cab-a9c3-d37c2fe8e25a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Yudkowsky and Christiano on AI Takeoff Speeds [LINKPOST]
*Linkpost for “*[*Yudkowsky Contra Christiano on AI Takeoff Speeds*](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/yudkowsky-contra-christiano-on-ai?s=r)*”, published by Scott Alexander on March 4, 2021. Here is the* [*original conversation*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s... |
e7935d9f-18ed-4db2-bd7c-fd48ce130dc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 4
[Update: and now there's a fifth discussion thread, which you should probably use in preference to this one. Later update: and a sixth -- in the discussion section, which is where these threads are living for now on. Also: tag for HP threads in the ... |
758bc650-a80d-42d7-bfd4-7e09d0a6c22d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 15 - Natural Abstractions with John Wentworth
[Google Podcasts link](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9heHJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/MmJkNTgzMWEtZDFkMS00MWEwLWE4NzctMzg3OTcxMGVlYjZj)
Why does anybody care about natural abstractions? Do they somehow relate to math, or value learning... |
ee7a1d5e-15db-420c-bcbb-79265bf6753f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yet another cognitive biases book
I found this one because I'm on Sam Harris's email list.
Brain Bugs: How the Brain's Flaws Shape Our Lives by Dean Buonomano
(Amazon.com link)
The preview didn't really give me all that good an impression... it mostly seemed to be stuff I already knew or sort-of knew. It feels easy... |
96487fd8-b453-455d-bd08-ddd7bf6b7aaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | East Coast Megameetup II: Electric Boogalloo
The last East Coast Megameetup was awesome, and people wanted to do another one.
So let's do another one?
Vision:
* Primarily a social event, with some skill transfer
* Meet people within the LW community, make friends, get contacts
* Get people together for our mut... |
88597c34-badb-42ed-8b1c-9a8512e91135 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proxy Donating as Spam Filter
One thing that sometimes makes me hesitate to donate to a cause is that, unless you're donating in person and using cash, you're inevitably signing up for a gigantic stream of junk mail, not just from the organization you gave money to, but other, often totally unrelated charities as well... |
faba899c-ac6d-403b-a20f-351fb7b5d5db | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Group action
An action of a [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) $G$ on a [https://arbital.com/p/-3jz](https://arbital.com/p/-3jz) $X$ is a function $\alpha : G \times X \to X$ ([colon-to notation](https://arbital.com/p/3vl)), which is often written $(g, x) \mapsto gx$ ([mapsto notation](https://ar... |
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