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0eba637d-4db4-4383-9855-527b176e5926 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Shutdown Problem: An AI Engineering Puzzle for Decision Theorists
[NOTE: This paper was previously titled 'The Shutdown Problem: Three Theorems'.]
This paper is an updated version of the first half of my AI Alignment Awards contest entry. My theorems build on the theorems of Soares, Fallenstein, Yudkowsky, and Ar... |
7fe36db2-df2c-4eae-8fe9-b1e55a200b18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Viciousness
Someone deserves a large hattip for this, but I'm having trouble remembering who; my records don't seem to show any email or OB comment which told me of this 12-page essay, "Epistemic Viciousness in the Martial Arts" by Gillian Russell. Maybe Anna Salamon?
> We all lined up in our ties an... |
b34132ac-8f6e-46a2-a94c-bf0c1392e1fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Some cruxes on impactful alternatives to AI policy work
Ben Pace and I (Richard Ngo) recently did a public double crux at the Berkeley REACH on how valuable it is for people to go into AI policy and strategy work: I was optimistic and Ben was pessimistic. During the actual event, we didn't come anywhere near to findin... |
0c525833-d335-4d0b-9546-3d633ed193d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence failures and a theory of change for forecasting
In this blog post I’m going to try to do two things. First I’m going to make the case that failures of both the US and Soviet intelligence services have substantially increased the risk of nuclear power in the atomic age, then I’m going to argue that these ... |
b34a71b5-9659-4c51-8dcb-83acce81caff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values
to explore deep unsolved problems about
the nature and limits of computation
the institute's core activities revolve
around semester-long research programs
on specific topics in the foundations of
computing and related fields
we've been going since 2012 and rece... |
38705cf4-b40c-4f85-82ac-c3e2299e84d5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Descriptive vs. specifiable values
*[Metadata: crossposted from <https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/11/descriptive-vs-specifiable-values.html>. First completed November 19, 2022.]*
What are an agent's values? An answer to this question might be a good description of the agent's external behavior and internal workings,... |
a6feb781-0991-407d-8da3-1d52b47cc9a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal setting journal (GSJ) - 28/06/15 -> 05/07/15
Inspired by the group rationality diary and open thread, this is the inaugural weekly goal setting journal (GSJ) thread.
If you have goals worth setting that are not worth their own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Here are mine, to illustrate:
11.Go... |
c1b07945-cb9b-4d56-bc35-91296490c675 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning about AI regulation should be easier
I recently decided to try to learn more about the AI regulations of China, the EU, and the US. Instead of taking private notes, I decided to create a webpage to organise and summarise the main things I found, with the idea that it might be useful to others. I’ve read and w... |
439370f9-07e1-409f-a6af-10cab38627b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Historical Parallels: Preliminary Reflection
Despite the unique features of advanced AI systems, a thorough study of historical examples from emergent technologies offers insight into navigation between the risks and benefits.
The rapid advances in the AI development have left the field mostly devoid of large-sca... |
1799f608-6309-46dc-ad06-a9d0cb576a07 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Inferring Rewards from Language in Context.
1 Introduction
---------------
Language is a natural interface for systems like robots or personal assistants that interact with human users. One way to interpret language in these interactive settings is to train an instruction following agent: a model that learns to map... |
da058a02-8a0c-4d95-8e65-0882402c3b7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dark Forest Theories
There's a concept I first heard in relation to the Fermi Paradox, which I've ended up using a lot in other contexts.
Why do we see no aliens out there? A possible (though not necessarily correct) answer, is that the aliens might not want to reveal themselves for fear of being destroyed by larger,... |
7275b7fd-18d1-464f-b765-f34d93c0408e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | CSRBAI talks on robustness and error-tolerance
We’ve uploaded a second set of videos from our recent [Colloquium Series on Robust and Beneficial AI](https://intelligence.org/colloquium-series/) (CSRBAI) at the MIRI office, co-hosted with the Future of Humanity Institute. These talks were part of the week focused on ro... |
f7491448-318a-46f5-8e12-b82b3181afe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Warsaw January Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw January Meetup
WHEN: 13 January 2015 06:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Warsaw
Themes propositions: new year's resolutions, self-development without bullshit, growth mindset, rationalist-friendly fiction. Maybe Go playing.
Place: Pub Frodo, Chmielna ... |
1d880e17-1fad-4bc7-bced-931d253aabe9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did Bengio and Tegmark lose a debate about AI x-risk against LeCun and Mitchell?
On June 22nd, there was a “Munk Debate”, facilitated by the Canadian Aurea Foundation, on the question whether “AI research and development poses an existential threat” (you can watch it here, which I highly recommend). On stage were Yosh... |
db4d845b-2bff-4821-aeda-acb63d7aa1cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A fungibility theorem
Restatement of: If you don't know the name of the game, just tell me what I mean to you. Alternative to: Why you must maximize expected utility. Related to: Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem.
Summary: This article describes a theorem, previously described by Stuart Armstrong, that tells you ... |
72117392-be31-4af1-a3f6-22e6b27b1f48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proving Too Much (w/ exercises)
This is the first post in the Arguing Well sequence. This post is influenced by Scott Alexander's write up on Proving too Much.
[edit: Reformatted the post as a Problem/Solution to clarify what I'm trying to claim]
The Problem
One of the purposes of arguing well is to figure out what... |
c27591f9-a0e3-4115-9c5a-dd552e7bc432 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Math. proof of the superiority of independent guesses?
Alice, Bob, Chris, Dana and Erica have set out to guess the number of candies in a glas jar just by looking at it. How do I mathematically show that the average guess will come closer to the real number if they guess independently, i.e without Bob hearing Alice's ... |
3f5ca0bd-1feb-4bb5-9f5b-9559c8c3ce2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepMind's "Frontier Safety Framework" is weak and unambitious
FSF blogpost. Full document (just 6 pages; you should read it). Compare to Anthropic's RSP, OpenAI's RSP ("Preparedness Framework"), and METR's Key Components of an RSP.
Google DeepMind's FSF has three steps:
1. Create model evals for warning signs of... |
0b4ba705-2f8b-469e-a566-77b2d3063082 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Probability notation for Bayes' rule: Intro (Math 1)
To denote some of the quantities used in Bayes' rule, we'll need [conditional probabilities](https://arbital.com/p/1rj). The conditional probability $\mathbb{P}(X\mid Y)$ means "The [probability](https://arbital.com/p/1rf) of $X$ given $Y$." That is, $\mathbb P(\m... |
0215480a-a69a-4649-88ff-d48e05c6eb50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the evidence for productivity benefits of weightlifting?
[Mod Note: This question received an answer that seemed worth curating. See the answer by LW user hereisonehand for the curation notice]
I've been weightlifting for a while, and I've heard vaguely good things about it's effect on productivity, like a ge... |
c686d3b6-75e5-4622-a4f4-20bff81081fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I am anti-awareness and you should be too
People seem to like raising awareness a lot. One might suspect too much, assuming the purpose is to efficiently solve whatever problem the awareness is being raised about. It’s hard to tell whether it is too much by working out how much is the right amount then checking if it ... |
cafa3f12-cbcc-4a79-9172-1c22e694d12a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everyone’s mired in the deepest confusion, some of the time?
> You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
>
> Unknown, popularly attributed to Abraham Lincoln
One of the most famous supposed quotes of Abraham Lincoln, got me t... |
6256265a-0a84-43b2-8f55-9668a04d4139 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A descriptive, not prescriptive, overview of current AI Alignment Research
TL;DR: In this project, we collected and cataloged AI alignment research literature and analyzed the resulting dataset in an unbiased way to identify major research directions. We found that the field is growing quickly, with several subfields ... |
1f45437f-5d83-492c-a7c1-fdafc40f174f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 3. Premise three & Conclusion: AI systems can affect value change trajectories & the Value Change Problem
In this post, I introduce the last of three premises—the claim that *AI systems are (and will become increasingly) capable of affecting people’s value change trajectories*. With all three premises in place, we ca... |
9b9d5cbf-ebf1-40f5-82c5-05b79e13b685 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Precision of Sets of Forecasts
> I discuss proposals for a method that estimates how much predictive information additional degrees of precision in forecasts add and at which point additional precision is just noise, and investigate these proposals with empirical forecasting data. I furthermore describe desirable crit... |
ef7c2f4f-f2f2-46ea-bdc2-ff114d5595bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley: Alpha-testing at CFAR
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley: Alpha-testing at CFAR
WHEN: 30 April 2014 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2030 Addison, 3rd floor, Berkeley
Hello, all! CFAR is holding a free rationality training session Wednesday night in order to alpha-test a new unit titled "negat... |
68fdae69-5f00-4a89-90e9-81340dc5455e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any evidence or reason to expect a multiverse / Everett branches?
My understanding is that pilot wave theory (ie Bohmian mechanics) explains all the quantum physics with no weirdness like "superposition collapse" or "every particle interaction creates n parallel universes which never physically interfere with each oth... |
df2d3af8-959c-4026-9f1f-3159d3ea8510 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stories for exponential growth
Disclaimer: This is a collection of some simple stories for exponential growth. I've tried to list the main ones, but I might well have missed some, and I welcome feedback.
The topic of whether and why growth trends are exponential has been discussed on LessWrong before. For instance, s... |
ccc782ec-a9a0-46e1-aaf0-343aeb133e66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Guided Mental Change Requires High Trust
There is a general theme to a lot of the flashpoints I’ve witnessed so far on LW 2.0. We're having the usual disagreements and debates like “what is and isn’t allowed here” or “is it worse to be infantile or exclusive?”. I think underlying a lot of these arguments are mistaken ... |
5a47fd7c-9314-4e05-aa2a-17ae8f416fe1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tiling agents with transfinite parametric polymorphism
The formalism presented in this post turned out to be erroneous (as opposed to the formalism in the previous post). The problem is that the step in the proof of the main proposition in which the soundness schema is applied cannot be generalized to the ordinal sett... |
4f6a5f74-05dd-4446-b35c-f34a44ee90e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Experience With Loving Kindness Meditation
I've heard some scary stories about potential bad outcomes from meditation. These outcomes seem to mostly be from people practicing insight meditation for very long periods of time, though.
So I figured, hey, a few minutes here and there of loving-kindness meditation shou... |
4bee9624-2b75-429a-acbc-be69ac2aba64 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs
This is a list from [Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS#Hardware_costs), showing hardware configurations that authors claim perform efficiently, along with their prices per GFLOPS at different times in recent history.
In it, prices generally fall at around an order of mag... |
f395edcb-1fd6-49c9-9456-b4f0bec8200a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Melb Rationality Dojo. Including: "Critical Thoughts on Nutritional Recommendations"
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Melb Rationality Dojo. Including: "Critical Thoughts on Nutritional Recommendations"
WHEN: 06 February 2016 02:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Janet Lady Clarke Memorial Rotunda, Queen Vict... |
174bb82f-fe96-42eb-8e39-a166a23a6b09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on Hardware limits to Prevent AGI?
Summary: An individual Commodore 64 is almost certainly safe, Top 10 super computers could almost certainly run a superpowerful AGI, but where is the safe line, and how would we get to the safe side?
I started thinking about this topic when I realized that we can safely use... |
379ff21e-eb8c-4212-9c99-74cd1c510839 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I hired 5 people to sit behind me and make me productive for a month
Warning: this is not in typical LessWrong "style", but nevertheless I think it is of interest to people here.
Most people approach productivity from the bottom up. They notice something about a process that feels inefficient, so they set out to fix ... |
463c053f-aadf-4a97-ae2d-2886ce01f70b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI-Generated Music for Learning
AI-Generated Music for Learning
Catchy tunes are easy to remember.
----------------------------------------
Contents
* Motivation
* Implementation
* Combination with Current Learning Methods
* Appendix I: Lyric Examples
* See Also
----------------------------------------
Moti... |
c6bc8a78-f652-4bc5-a854-6233d2698388 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Synchronization on small-world networks
|
61bf03f1-c462-4421-a0ef-1bb86fd4fd90 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Mystery About High Dimensional Concept Encoding
*Epistemic status: I ran some experiments with surprising results, and I don’t have a clear intuition of what it means for the way concepts are encoded in model activations. Help is welcome!*
***[EDIT] I made a mistake while analyzing the data, and it changes some of ... |
a803c415-57dc-44da-8ce2-3135efc8f29a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Politics and Awful Art
Followup to: Rationality and the English Language
One of my less treasured memories is of a State of the Union address, or possibly a presidential inauguration, at which a Nobel Laureate got up and read, in a terribly solemn voice, some politically correct screed about what a wonderfully inclu... |
70eb1140-d07b-40f4-a029-4d4c0e5b61d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Very Short) PSA: Combined Main and Discussion Feed
For anyone who's annoyed by having to check newest submissions for Main and Discussion separately, there is a feed for combined submissions from both, in the form of Newest Submissions - All (RSS feed). (There's also Comments - All (RSS feed), but for me at least, i... |
d9957724-6acd-405e-b365-c631bde8eb9d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Laurent Orseau on Artificial General Intelligence
 [Laurent Orseau](http://www.agroparistech.fr/mia/orseau) is an associate professor (*maître de conférences*) since 2007 at [AgroParisTech](http://www.agroparistech.fr/), Paris, France. In 2003, he... |
2aeaf328-66b5-4d84-9c32-aa1add6e4238 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
Katja Grace, Aug 4 2022
AI Impacts just finished collecting data from a new survey of ML researchers, as similar to the 2016 one as practical, aside from a couple of new questions that seemed too interesting not to add.
This page reports on it preliminarily, and we’ll b... |
2ce93cbf-c554-4a7c-8978-5b87be3581d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some highlights from Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise"
As a part of my work for MIRI on the "Can we know what to do about AI?" project, I read Nate Silver's book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't. I compiled a list of the takeaway points that I found most relevant to the pr... |
6e0fec7a-d31b-4d23-9f04-2db9a2d3fcba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to get technological knowledge on AI/ML (for non-tech people)
Motivation
==========
During the last academic year, I decided to pause my studies at university and do some self-studies instead. I am a German law student and interested in AI governance. Before, I had already read quite some articles on the topic wi... |
00363c89-b7aa-4527-b2a5-9911cddcef7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Rights for Human Safety
Just wanted to share a new paper on AI rights, co-authored with Peter Salib, that members of this community might be interested in. Here's the abstract:
AI companies are racing to create artificial general intelligence, or “AGI.” If they succeed, the result will be human-level AI systems th... |
d2c201fe-49c5-4077-b127-ed24ab56a55a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Dynamical Distance Learning for Semi-Supervised and Unsupervised Skill Discovery
1 Introduction
---------------
The manual design of reward functions represents a major barrier to the adoption of reinforcement learning (RL), particularly in robotics, where vision-based policies can be learned end-to-end Levine et a... |
0b302e37-32c4-4151-b399-592d369be94a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 10/27/22: Another Origin Story
The big story this week was a new preprint claiming to show that Covid-19 had an unnatural origin. For several days, this was a big story with lots of arguing about it, lots of long threads, lots of people accusing others of bad faith or being idiots or not understanding undergradu... |
c75b4dd8-d05f-478b-b534-353a02c8c8fe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Building AGI: Promising Approaches, Remaining Milestones, and Likely Obstacles | Yoshua Bengio
I guess I have a few messages one of
them is current AI is very bad in terms
of health you know how much they
understands the world around us then
I'll explain more specifically some of
the things that I think are missing th... |
246c6cd1-1deb-4aaf-9e78-62d2ffbd4add | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on March 25th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Ann Arbor Meetup - singing: 26 March 2016 07:00PM
* European Community Weekend: 02 September 2016 03:35PM
The remaining meetups take place in ci... |
88a18e77-8818-4e60-ac37-a8cd09568a15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Join ASAP! (AI Safety Accountability Programme) 🚀
Edit - this group was an experiment which I consider to have mostly been unsuccessful, and the group is no longer very active. I think the two main reasons for this were: (1) lacking a single thing which people were congregating around (e.g. the TransformerLens librar... |
295b9a8c-9af4-4dcc-bee5-75920e8f23a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing the Existential Risks Introductory Course (ERIC)
Crossposted to the EA Forum.
Introduction
We (the Cambridge Existential Risks Initiative) ran an Existential Risks Introductory Course (ERIC) in the first quarter of 2022, aiming to introduce the field of existential risks, without being explicitly associa... |
8338eaa4-aeaf-4545-9ce2-367ce8306b11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Main actors in the AI race
Which actors (countries, companies, individuals) are currently taking part in the AI race? Who may be, for any reason, the most problematic? I tried to find posts about it, but ended up not being very successful.
I'm pretty new to the field and would like to understand the full picture bet... |
ecbb47af-6831-46e4-aedd-bfbe642c2a3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Radical Probabilism
*This is an expanded version of* [*my talk*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZM63n353vh2ag7z4p/radical-probabilism-transcript)*. I assume a high degree of familiarity with Bayesian probability theory.*
[Toward a New Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tK... |
9dcae5fb-cf26-4373-b326-ed6955e01ff9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Google Gemini Announced
Google just announced Gemini, and Hassabis claims that "in each of the 50 different subject areas that we tested it on, it's as good as the best expert humans in those areas"
> State-of-the-art performance
> We've been rigorously testing our Gemini models and evaluating their performance on a... |
7922c843-2e02-46fb-811c-76eba2f9cb37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Dec. 19 - Dec. 25, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
47d79e7d-b64f-4704-bfb2-d282786c71c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Inframeasures and Domain Theory
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none;... |
f4e9b5be-1195-4318-a134-65a9e42a9e7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scaffolded LLMs as natural language computers
Crossposted from my personal blog.
Recently, LLM-based agents have been all the rage -- with projects like AutoGPT showing how easy it is to wrap an LLM in a simple agentic loop and prompt it to achieve real-world tasks. More generally, we can think about the class of 'sc... |
b5ea5dc6-f83b-4394-b454-cae008a7a508 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calculance: A "Core" Ability
There has been a long-standing gap in the English language for a single word representing the specific ability to perform effective logical operations. Introducing "calculance" to fill this void.
We could posit a priori (or reckon) that intelligence fundamentally arises from two core compo... |
736f684b-57c0-4344-8325-14336b9da02a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Flashcards for AI Safety?
I sometimes struggle to remember the contents of all the articles I've read on AI Safety. Spaced repetition might be helpful, but this requires someone to write flashcards. For Anki, I've found 2 decks, titled "Superintelligence" and "AI Policy".
Do more AI Safety relevant decks exist?
What... |
832aba9c-26cb-47f4-b0ba-7817ea40e2d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Writing Causal Models Like We Write Programs
Clunc
We’ll start with a made-up programming language called Clunc. The distinguishing feature of clunc is that it combines classes and functions into a single type, called a clunc. It looks like this:
quad = Clunc {
x = 4
constant = 3
linear = 2*x + constant
... |
e8f6abff-4fd4-4de4-ac42-a681c2b54f40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Lifespan Dilemma
One of our most controversial posts ever was "Torture vs. Dust Specks". Though I can't seem to find the reference, one of the more interesting uses of this dilemma was by a professor whose student said "I'm a utilitarian consequentialist", and the professor said "No you're not" and told them abou... |
1af67c65-aa02-47d3-a13c-52ee603011c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 4 - Risks from Learned Optimization with Evan Hubinger
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it's been ... |
0d55d08a-8e39-49fa-b4b0-1a8a02179829 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI impacts and Paul Christiano on takeoff speeds
[Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) and [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) release posts arguing that a gradual improvement in AI capability is more likely than a di... |
05479bc2-8d53-49cf-a89e-9a5c490e1789 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Risk and Survivorship Bias - How Andreessen and LeCun got it wrong
*Purpose of this post/TL;DR: Many people who argue against the existence of large-scale risks associated with AI, including Marc Andreessen or Yann LeCun, use the following argument template (call this the Argument from Overestimation, AFO): "since... |
8d8bb61a-adbf-44ca-a837-0d7bc0c58a80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Mechanism Designer for Research into Internalizing Catastrophic Externalities
TL;DR
I need help finding/developing a mech that can reliably elicit honest and effortful risk-estimates from frontier AI labs regarding their models, risk-estimates to be used in risk-priced premiums that labs then pay the governme... |
d6c553dc-44bc-4774-beb3-1c8d5e21cb83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: "Feeling Great" by David Burns
I've never had any "real" mental health problems, but sometimes I feel stressed or guilty or whatever, like everyone, and who doesn’t want to feel more good more often? So a couple months ago I read Feeling Great: The Revolutionary New Treatment for Depression and Anxiety by... |
f6bd3a20-fab3-4f13-b40d-ed7e7c1b729d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | What Did You Think Would Happen? Explaining Agent Behaviour Through Intended Outcomes
1 Introduction
---------------
Explaining the behaviour of machine learning algorithms or AI remains a key challenge in machine learning. With the guidelines of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) EUdata... |
5e53c02e-ef26-4674-a68e-97607b8af764 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Education control?
I'm reading Nurture Shock by Po Bronson & Ashley Merryman. Several things in the book, esp. the chapter on "Tools of the Mind", an intriguing education program, suggest that our education of young children not only isn't very good even when evaluated using tests that the curriculum was designed for,... |
b712d682-d8a2-48b4-9f17-db906ba54285 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | "UDT2" and "against UD+ASSA"
I'm reposting some old posts that I originally sent to the "decision theory workshop" mailing list and the "[everything-list](http://www.weidai.com/everything.html)", because I occasionally want to reference these posts but the former mailing list is private and the latter one is public bu... |
bded6593-bc93-48a6-a508-0b4dad8439df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training a Sparse Autoencoder in < 30 minutes on 16GB of VRAM using an S3 cache
Summary
300 million GPT2-small activations are cached on s3, we pull these very quickly onto a g4dn.8xlarge ec2 instance in the same region and use them to train a 24,576 dimensional Switch Sparse Autocoder in 26 minutes (excluding generat... |
c3083841-8e92-43af-ba8c-a011f4166936 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social Class
Notes from the Salon
ETA: This is a write-up of some interesting points raised at an in-person rationalist meetup on October 6th, 2019. It is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of the topic. It is conventional for attendees to do all the suggested readings before salon starts, so some parts of t... |
e3dba749-b337-416b-85e2-17394af91158 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Coherent extrapolated dreaming
*This work was supported by the Monastic Academy for the Preservation of Life on Earth. You can support my work* [*here*](http://alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*I will give a short presentation of this work followed by discussion on Wednesday Dec 28 at 12pm Pacific / 3pm Eastern.* [*RSVP... |
b7ce3515-60c3-4d40-82a4-6ef49f5bd540 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biosecurity Culture, Computer Security Culture
While I've only worked in biosecurity for about a year and my computer security background consists of things I picked up while working on other aspects of software engineering, the cultures seem incredibly different. Some examples of good computer security culture that w... |
81235a3c-27fb-4e90-b0fd-b1e46ca896c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Akrasia, hyperbolic discounting, and picoeconomics
Akrasia is the tendency to act against your own long-term interests, and is a problem doubtless only too familiar to us all. In his book "Breakdown of Will", psychologist George C Ainslie sets out a theory of how akrasia arises and why we do the things we do to fight ... |
436e10c4-ecda-4461-aff8-3c75f1f39baf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When(if ever) are superstimuli good/useful/advantageous?
Superstimuli in this case are things that are optimized towards stimulating some part of the human brain.
Things which are NOT superstimuli include: drugs which have not been synthesized or distilled for the purpose of enhancing their effects on a person, porn... |
dc31f76f-7f40-48f9-849f-668844bb609e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #94]: AI alignment as translation between humans and machines
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the ne... |
77505351-9f2e-45dc-b670-198129abd625 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Causal representation learning as a technique to prevent goal misgeneralization
Summary: This is a submission for the goal misgeneralization contest organized by AI Alignment Awards, as well as the third iteration of some slowly improving AI Safety research agenda that I aim to pursue at some point in the future.
Tha... |
37b513af-6bee-4d7d-9332-b980111b45e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Among the A.I. Doomsayers - The New Yorker
The New Yorker just realized a feature article on AI Safety, rationalism, and effective altruism, and… it's surprisingly good? It seems honest, balanced, and even funny. It doesn't take a position about AI Safety, but IMO it paints it in a good way.
Paul Crowley (mentioned i... |
fe9f31f8-0c31-4f57-95ab-0bfb128a93ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tell me what you think of me
Time and time again, honest feedback has improved my life. I have sought it out on many specific occasions, but now I have a static, anonymous way for people to give me feedback — for any reason, at any time.
You can give me feedback on my personality, my conduct, or the organization for ... |
0e723ff2-d31c-4d54-983e-06ce53bcbd88 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What projects and efforts are there to promote AI safety research?
As far as I can tell, the recognition of the existential danger of AI is at an all time. It is going mainstream! Unfortunately, most of the discourse seems very pessimistic. The bulk of the messaging seems to imply that the only thing we can do is wait... |
bf8b1ca0-3270-4f98-8ee9-1c088d6c4767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does gradient descent always work on neural networks?
My amateur understanding of neural networks is that they almost always train using stochastic gradient descent. The quality of a neural network comes from its size, shape, and training data, but not from the training function, which is always simple gradient de... |
7cf6b795-795d-4b79-ad97-d86e5b64cc94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | i love eating trash
It was my recent pleasure to come across the best thing I have yet seen on LessWrong. No, it's not some eye-opening post on a niche AI topic full of mathematical notation, nor another monument to Quinean Naturalism - it was the moderation log, found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/moderation. I ca... |
dbf06b83-8c12-4aa9-8621-51d6e283780a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we expect more value from AI alignment than from an ASI with the goal of running alternate trajectories of our universe?
If we have an ASI, which goal is to efficiently model and run alternate trajectories of our universe (including the future) (scholastically and a high number of times), then the value of our uni... |
be29a851-a04a-4b35-ae63-a7bab765afbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incredibow
Back in 2011 I got sick of breaking the hairs on violin bows and ordered an Incredibow. The hair is polymer filament, and it's very strong. I ordered a 29" Basic Omnibow, Featherweight, and it's been just what I wanted. I think I've broken something like three hairs ever, despite some rough chopping.
... |
4601af27-baaf-4961-858f-886e4e40d5e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Documents Are Dead. Long Live the Conversational Proxy.
Sometime in early 2024, I stopped reading books. Not because I don’t love the process—but because I realized the alpha/hour ratio was far too low.
Reading texts (especially documentation) has become increasingly inefficient. It’s not about laziness; it’s about l... |
766ef7eb-7c80-4084-99f2-e55d5ac2f6eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI for medical care for hard-to-treat diseases?
With LLM-based AI passing benchmarks that would challenge people with a Ph.D in relevant fields, I'm left wondering what they can do for real-world problems for which nobody knows the correct answer, such as how to treat potentially fatal medical conditions with no known... |
6c3180ae-87f1-4a40-93d4-a5eb4392b3f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Party for biomedical rejuvenation research: European parliament elections
Reasons to vote for this party on the upcoming elections:
1. Only 0.67% is needed to gain 1 Europarliament seat - Volt gained this seat in 2019
2. 1 seat gives you ~10000 euros salary per month and sets huge precedent for transhumanist politi... |
03fe0dfd-f935-45db-a811-fa9db8553850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ELK shaving
> Paul Christiano's incredibly complicated schemes have no chance of working in real life before DeepMind destroys the world.
> Eliezer in Death With Dignity
Eliciting Latent Knowledge reads to me as an incredibly narrow slice in reasoning space, a hyperbolically branching philosophical rabbit hole of ... |
019094d8-6b20-433f-975e-e58ebb695e2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MIRI/OP exchange about decision theory
Open Philanthropy's Joe Carlsmith and Nick Beckstead had a short conversation about decision theory a few weeks ago with MIRI's Abram Demski and Scott Garrabrant (and me) and LW's Ben Pace. I'm copying it here because I thought others might find it useful.
Terminology notes:
*... |
3931cd7b-99cf-4a93-aef9-9c528655f19c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Epistemology
"Epistemology" is the subject matter that deals with truth on a meta level: e.g., questions such as "What is truth?" and "What methods of reasoning are most likely to lead to true beliefs?" Epistemology can be considered as a child subject of [https://arbital.com/p/9l](https://arbital.com/p/9l). Many [A... |
74d12b0c-c53c-487c-97c9-83390f9da9eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Contact, Part 1
Context: for fun (and profit?)
Basic Contact
Contact is a lightweight many-versus-one word guessing game. I was first introduced to it on a long bus ride several years ago, and since then it’s become one of my favorite games to play casually with friends. There are a few blog posts out there about... |
e43f15b7-533b-4085-b60e-69747131ac39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #82]: How OpenAI Five distributed their training computation
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replying to this email.
Au... |
c0e3dba0-a813-4397-a018-0e3a6091d95a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2. AIs as Economic Agents
Part 2 of AI, Alignment, and Ethics. This will probably make more sense if you start with Part 1.
World Government Incoming
Should AIs be allowed to own money or property? In A Sense of Fairness: Deconfusing Ethics I discussed how to sensibly select an ethical system for your society, and w... |
f1723ba0-5e55-45f6-8e8c-258fb1c14594 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bottleneck Examples
This post follows my Chains, Bottlenecks and Optimization. The goal is to give hypothetical examples of bottlenecks and non-bottlenecks (things with excess capacity), and to answer johnswentworth, who helpfully commented:
> I really like what this post is trying to do. The idea is a valuable one. ... |
754abc6d-641e-42a2-a844-343e6e4cb458 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Enter PaLM 2 (New Bard): Full Breakdown - 92 Pages Read and Gemini Before GPT 5? Google I/O
less than 24 hours ago Google released
the Palm 2 technical report I have read
all 92 Pages watch the Palm 2
presentation read the release notes and
have already tested the model in a dozen
ways but before getting into it all ... |
b35926c4-86a3-4f6c-91df-135eef763d59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Simulator AIs want to be Active Inference AIs
Paper covering some of the same ideas is now available at https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.10215
Prelude: when GPT first hears its own voice
Imagine humans in Plato’s cave, interacting with reality by watching the shadows on the wall. Now imagine a second cave, further awa... |
5ac1bf37-05e3-4c4d-b089-3a42980ff3b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Fiction - Crystal Society
I'm really excited about a new novel written by Raelifin. I'm halfway through it, and it's great! The novel is from the perspective of an artificial intelligence who is trying to understand how humans think. Along the way there's discussion of biases, thinking techniques, and more. If you'... |
0152664d-8d2b-45a4-b91f-982860a70232 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress
We know of ten events which produced a robust discontinuity in progress equivalent to more than one hundred years at previous rates in some interesting metric. We know of 53 other events which produced smaller or less robust discontinuities.
Background
----------
These... |
b690d37b-826d-4ed6-948d-e41868fc32d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Deep learning - deeper flaws?
In this post I summarise four lines of argument for why we should be skeptical about the potential of deep learning in its current form. I am fairly confident that the next breakthroughs in AI will come from some variety of neural network, but I think several of the objections below are q... |
1af3f842-2808-4dd1-99d6-e8bcb1123161 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Inconsistency evaluation in pairwise comparison using norm-based distances.
Decisions in Economics and Finance (2020) 43:657–672
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-020-00304-9
Inconsistency evaluation in pairwise comparison using
norm-based distances
Michele Fedrizzi1·Nino Civolani2·Andrew Critch3
Received: 14 December 20... |
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