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a1729263-21df-4a11-a7e0-4f89ad80d59a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Mountain View: Board Game Night
Discussion article for the meetup : Mountain View: Board Game Night
WHEN: 09 April 2013 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 278 Castro St, Mountain View, CA
It's been four whole weeks since we last played board games! How has this happened!?
The Quixey office has quite a few board ga... |
42f2623b-f82d-40ca-ab9e-3f655f7fb40c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Allegory On AI Risk, Game Theory, and Mithril
“Thorin, I can’t accept your generous job offer because, honestly, I think that your company might destroy Middle Earth.”
“Bifur, I can tell that you’re one of those “the Balrog is real, evil, and near” folks who thinks that in the next few decades Mithril miners wil... |
b7a5ab3e-7988-4697-88d5-69b2268c9a6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mathematics as a lossy compression algorithm gone wild
This is yet another half-baked post from my old draft collection, but feel free to Crocker away.
There is an old adage from Eugene Wigner known as the "Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics". Wikipedia:
the mathematical structure of a physical theory ofte... |
d3d10e52-56b3-47dc-b7ab-2f69a4d925c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Optimisation Measures: Desiderata, Impossibility, Proposals
**Previously:** [Towards Measures of Optimisation](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/X6ZjFShxNBNM5QCg4/towards-measures-of-optimisation-3)
When thinking about optimisation processes it is seductive to think in information-theoretic terms.
Is there some u... |
e36555b1-5940-465a-b131-810b17e965ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Streaming Science on Twitch
Recently I was watching a livestream of a poker professional. I was surprised and interested in how it wasn’t purely-gut calls, and also wasn’t purely technical decisions, but a blend of both (with some other stochasticity thrown in).
I’ve been thinking about how to get more good scientis... |
46fd9d7f-bfff-4879-afcc-0e3f8822e30e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My thoughts on AI and personal future plan after learning about AI Safety for 4 months
In this post, I want to distill some of my thoughts about AI and my future plan regarding it according to what I have learnt during the past 4 months.
About my personal background: My background lies in Financial Engineering and Ma... |
dc6fd67a-29a0-450b-aefe-9ce0b6468f5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper
The day’s task shows up in an envelope, and not in glowing purple letters emblazoned across the inside of your eyelids, which is usually a good sign. The owl that brought it looks on with equanimity as you read its master's message:
> Hello,
>
> I hearde that you do odde j... |
c42bd942-f705-4f47-9a70-cb5e5024eaa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On moving posts from Main to Discussion
Yesterday, someone moved one of my posts from Main to Discussion without telling me. Again.
I encourage the site administrators to show some basic courtesy to the posters who provide the content for the site. I believe this would be a better way of doing things:
1. Have a po... |
1a0f9459-a870-45dc-9d0b-a0e5bb393ac3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #57: The RAISE Act
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
In this edition: The New York Legislature passes an act regulating frontier AI—but it may not be signed into law for some time.
Listen to the AI Safe... |
c12d00be-9bf3-4285-bce4-f67811669d56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do I "test it"?
I've read a bunch of times on LessWrong about how important is to test things. It makes sure your beliefs are paying rent and helps you verify your hypotheses. Testing ideas is obviously important to science, and it's about as obvious that testing ideas in everyday life can serve the same purpose... |
1355840c-4903-4294-aafe-5b512f31e30b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AGI Race Between the US and China Doesn’t Exist.
When I write “China”, I refer to the political and economic entity, the People’s Republic of China, founded in 1949.
Leading US AI companies are currently rushing towards developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) by building and training increasingly powerfu... |
17955d10-1988-4ae6-a61d-faa06a5bc12e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outside View as the Main Debiasing Technique
The inside view refers to what your explicit models tell you. For example, if you write down a plan with explicit contingencies for things going wrong and time estimates for each step, or write down a careful argument for your point of view, or solve some equations. The out... |
3a1dc346-4855-4487-8512-a0bfdd684727 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Reductionism
Today's post, Reductionism was originally published on 16 March 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> We build models of the universe that have many different levels of description. But so far as anyone has been able to determine, the universe itself has only the single level of fund... |
53ab64fa-1182-47c8-b53d-b53df8d59a8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Definitions are about efficiency and consistency with common language.
What is a star? Stars could be defined utelizing the many attributes they have. You can use mass, density, brightness and size to define them. You can also use a combination of those attributes or even attributes I didn't mention to define stars. A... |
dad9929f-7a51-4627-93e8-e0a0b69875be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] The value of initiating a pursuit in temporal decision-making
This eLife paper The value of initiating a pursuit in temporal decision-making by Elissa Sutlief, Charlie Walters, Tanya Marton, and Marshall G Hussain Shuler, seems to dissolve the question of the choice of temporal discount functions by explain... |
55803f63-8bd9-4071-be86-7188e9694088 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Letter to my Squire
Hello, my Squire,
Several weeks ago you pointed out that my blog posts contain lots of spelling errors and you offered to proofread them for me. This was a good offer. I accepted it. My blog posts have fewer typos than they used to.
Later, you asked if you could pour me drinks and carry my dirty ... |
3d1fc3f3-4ec0-420b-9896-91f44a1bd0eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | But exactly how complex and fragile?
This is a post about my own confusions. It seems likely that other people have discussed these issues at length somewhere, and that I am not up with current thoughts on them, because I don’t keep good track of even everything great that everyone writes. I welcome anyone kindly dire... |
81a2d3ec-25cc-4e6f-bc08-e1f56283c5cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New US Senate Bill on X-Risk Mitigation [Linkpost]
Two US Senators have introduced a bipartisan bill specifically focused on x-risk mitigation, including from AI. From the [post on Senate.gov](https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/media/majority-media/peters-introduces-bipartisan-bill-to-ensure-federal-government-is-prepared-f... |
fd305e7c-a7bb-49c4-ae0f-0d507929dc6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spoiler-Free Review: Across the Obelisk
Life requires time for a good game now and then.
Across the Obelisk is a roguelike deckbuilder where a party of four adventurers goes on a quest. It is Slay the Spire meets Dungeons and Dragons.
I played Across the Obelisk while it was still in early access. For most of the ga... |
dd005e70-91ea-413a-b5fb-baede370fa66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I've run major projects
My few most productive individual weeks at Anthropic have all been “crisis project management:” coordinating major, time-sensitive implementation or debugging efforts.
In a company like Anthropic, excellent project management is an extremely high-leverage skill, and not just during crises:... |
47d48f4f-93a6-48ef-a8ad-4face52d7454 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Propaganda or Science: A Look at Open Source AI and Bioterrorism Risk
0: TLDR
I examined all the biorisk-relevant citations from a policy paper arguing that we should ban powerful open source LLMs.
None of them provide good evidence for the paper's conclusion. The best of the set is evidence from statements from Anth... |
1fbd624b-ab80-44bc-ab45-b4b63b61dfd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bletchley Declaration on AI Safety
The Bletchley Declaration was just released at the At AI Safety Summit.
Tl;dr: The declaration underscores the transformative potential and risks of AI. Countries, including major global powers, commit to harnessing AI's benefits while addressing its challenges, especially the ... |
4e0ef0c9-7053-47cc-bd8d-af1198cce715 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Craft And The Community: Wealth And Power And Tsuyoku Naritai
In this post, I'll try to tackle the question of whether this community and its members should focus more efforts and resources on improving their strength as individuals and as a community, than on directly tackling the problem of singularity. I'll sta... |
b17c1261-f20a-4640-9113-782fe6c930e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiences and learnings from both sides of the AI safety job market
I’m writing this in my own capacity. The views expressed are my own, and should not be taken to represent the views of Apollo Research or any other program I’m involved with.
In 2022, I applied to multiple full-time AI safety positions. Now, I swi... |
30c0c0a5-d91f-4ab9-8612-5b1ea088373d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The world where LLMs are possible
In [Artificial Addition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhgjmCxcQXixStWMC/artificial-addition), Eliezer used the ability to do arithmetic as a metaphor for intelligence. I really like this essay. It's witty and enlightening. And yet I have to admit it aged not so well. Among several ... |
c5ca73d4-5946-455c-b4d6-17c6acbe5f44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do we become confident in the safety of a machine learning system?
Thanks to Rohin Shah, Ajeya Cotra, Richard Ngo, Paul Christiano, Jon Uesato, Kate Woolverton, Beth Barnes, and William Saunders for helpful comments and feedback.
Evaluating proposals for building safe advanced AI—and actually building any degree ... |
d98a1dd3-8778-4a40-9a96-a405c09fe496 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Cotton Gin" AI Risk
Most concerns about AI tend to boil down to:
1. Loss of control to AI systems - What if AI were smarter than us and took over the world?
2. Concentration of power - What if AI gave too much power to someone bad?
I'm surprised I haven't heard consideration of a third, more basic risk.
Will thi... |
c3a835f4-aef4-4b88-87fe-9e05ab956d62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist wiki, redux
This site is very likely impenetrable to the newcomer. You one-box and defect on the True Prisoner's Dilemma, but is that just because of a cached thought, or is it your Tsuyoku Naratai? So I've created the LessWrong Wiki on Wikia. I'd like this to become a respository of useful definitions an... |
9814e15e-cbbd-4731-b8dd-1d96b2c8b93a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Proper Use of Doubt
Once, when I was holding forth upon the Way, I remarked upon how most organized belief systems exist to flee from doubt. A listener replied to me that the Jesuits must be immune from this criticism, because they practice organized doubt: their novices, he said, are told to doubt Christianity; d... |
f66c0dc9-b5cb-4493-9374-f187b26ba4ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bigger Livers?
My husband, Andrew Rettek, has a blog you should read. As he’s gotten into fitness, he’s started following exercise science, which is the (very new!) field of running small controlled experiments on diet and exercise on athletes who do exactly what you tell them to, under strict observation.
This is in... |
4892a444-fd8d-410b-ad3e-eb0e9a58d19e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Near- and medium-term
AI Control Safety Cases
This essay was part of my application to UKAISI. Unclear how much is novel, but I like the decomposition.
Some AI-enabled catastrophic risks involve an actor purposefully bringing about the negative outcome, as opposed to multi-agent tragedies where no single actor necess... |
0b37f7c7-f2ee-42f6-ac12-dd3d8588d31c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflection with optimal predictors
A change in terminology: It is convenient when important concepts have short names. The concept of an "optimal predictor scheme" seems much more important than its historical predecessor, the "optimal predictor". Therefore "optimal predictor schemes" will be henceforth called just "o... |
14437bd1-1663-4742-bda0-bc2634bff5ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter #3 2022
14/03/2023 09:18 Center for Human-Compatible AI (CHAI) Newsletter
https://mailchi.mp/humancompatible.ai/fwx5lj5be1 1/8 CHAI Newsletter
This newsletter includes CHAI activities from mid-September 2022 to
January 2023
Events
Artificial Intelligence: Promise and Peril
Stuart Russell wa... |
2c05612e-3a02-459a-be7f-5d2969d5d894 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summary of Situational Awareness - The Decade Ahead
Original by Leopold Aschenbrenner, this summary is not commissioned or endorsed by him.
Short Summary
* Extrapolating existing trends in compute, spending, algorithmic progress, and energy needs implies AGI (remote jobs being completely automatable) by ~2027.
* A... |
caf592ca-0263-404a-9ada-4481d6d3845b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimization at a Distance
We have a computational graph (aka circuit aka causal model) representing an agent and its environment. We’ve chosen a cut through the graph to separate “agent” from “environment” - i.e. a Cartesian boundary. Arrows from environment to agent through the boundary are “observations”; arrows fr... |
6924ee3d-21a1-439e-a0a0-aca9d244cff2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Singing
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Singing
WHEN: 27 March 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: US Navy Memorial
Note: there's a chance that it will rain this afternoon; if so, the meetup will be moving back to the National Portrait Gallery courtyard. Updates will be s... |
de5fc8f7-d802-4147-b31b-5d68ed4482cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science in a High-Dimensional World
Claim: the usual explanation of the Scientific Method is missing some key pieces about how to make science work well in a high-dimensional world (e.g. our world). Updating our picture of science to account for the challenges of dimensionality gives a different model for how to do sc... |
e9bcd1de-a2f0-489f-ba60-bd01bb542c34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reductionism Revisited
This is part 28 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
The last three days of Hammertime, I’ll wrap up with some scattered thoughts to reinforce important principles.
Today, I’ll return to applications of reductionism to instrumental rationality.
Day 28: Reductionism R... |
9c3b853b-0cb6-4ff8-93d2-b60483e34cd3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI takeoff story: a continuation of progress by other means
*Thanks to Vladimir Mikulik for suggesting that I write this, and to Rohin Shah and Daniel Kokotajlo for kindly providing feedback.*
Prologue
--------
*This is a story about a universe a lot like ours. In this universe, the* [*scaling hypothesis*](https://w... |
22f585b3-2444-492f-a927-e0c3a6220202 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hand vs. Fingers
Back to our original topic: Reductionism, which (in case you've forgotten) is part of a sequence on the Mind Projection Fallacy. There can be emotional problems in accepting reductionism, if you think that things have to be fundamental to be fun. But this position commits us to never taking joy in ... |
d89dd4f0-bf66-4729-99a7-b677e90770e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Hollywood Heroism
WARNING: This is a very personal essay that includes potentially triggering, childish views of an arrogant past!me, a lot of narrative, long literary tangents, and incredibly brash use of the Oxford comma. If you wish to cut straight to the useful parts, scroll down to Big Letter Headings.
------... |
ac98e1d2-3bb9-43e1-b0b7-6626096d2a95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Looking for adversarial collaborators to test our Debate protocol
EDIT: We're also looking for people to become trained Honest debaters, which requires a greater time commitment (ideally >=5 hours per week for >= 2 months) but for which we're offering $30/hr. If you're interested in doing that, please fill out this fo... |
c481df14-6e3d-4817-909d-ff497c6540bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What About The Horses?
In a previous post, I argued that AGI would not make human labor worthless.
One of the most common responses was to ask about the horses. Technology resulted in mass unemployment and population collapse for horses even though they must have had some comparative advantage with more advanced engi... |
a64231a6-a064-4c30-a1ea-ec9abbfd9673 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You May Already Be A Sinner
Followup to: Simultaneously Right and Wrong
Related to: Augustine's Paradox of Optimal Repentance
"When they inquire into predestination, they are penetrating the sacred precincts of divine wisdom. If anyone with carefree assurance breaks into this place, he will not succeed in satisfying... |
753c7a53-a503-49ed-9359-a7e867def49c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to choose a massage therapist
Written for Daniel Kokotajlo's unofficial blog post day! I didn't very effort here, so sorry that it's pretty rambly and full of personal anecdotes. I hope it's still at least somewhat helpful!
Background
Recently several people have asked me how to go about finding a good massage ... |
74fff2b9-1a94-4803-bf9a-e4cf0bbaedd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Relevance of 'Harmful Intelligence' Data in Training Datasets (WebText vs. Pile)
I believe the ideas in this post, though preliminary, will benefit many, especially those tackling the challenging aspects of the alignment problem. I think I've found an analogy that the alignment community should explore further.
TL... |
5e961e3f-ba99-4f50-b3da-5d48140ccbe6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow social meetup: Excercises and games for rationality skills improvement
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow social meetup: Excercises and games for rationality skills improvement
WHEN: 17 April 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Moscow, Strelbishensky pereulok, 10
Welcome to the social meetup of M... |
4cab070f-1386-408b-97a2-4790b01cc90e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quest for Holy Grail of Hedging in Retail Portfolios!
Please note , this post is not a solution, it is mere a discussion on the available options and risks
After reading a lot of literature on risk and hedging , I can distill the whole essence of risk management into a single sentence for Individual portfolio... |
41ce2429-dac9-406d-b051-6668199ee292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The thing I don't understand about AGI
Recently I've been hearing a lot about AGI, specifically that it's 5-10 years out. As someone with an interest in neuroscience, I don't understand how any system so much less complex than the human brain would be able to achieve such a thing. To me, I feel that current models are... |
2025645c-72ab-4e73-8f1d-cdc53c6a3553 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incorrect hypotheses point to correct observations
1. The Consciousness Researcher and Out-Of-Body Experiences
In his book Consciousness and the Brain, cognitive neuroscientist Stansilas Dehaene writes about scientifically investigating people’s reports of their out-of-body experiences:
> … the Swiss neurologist Ola... |
d0a20f26-290d-479e-a6bd-94be9bfde848 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All Metaforecast COVID predictions
These are taken from Metaforecast, and are provided without comment. To do this yourself, make a search query on Metaforecast, then click on "Capture" on the top right corner, then on "Capture image and generate code".
My hope is that after reading this post, other people might do i... |
16d6a599-3ffb-4304-bba2-1b6b9c488f5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Internal Family Systems and multi-agent minds: a reply to PJ Eby
Introduction
I recently had a conversation with PJ Eby in the comments of my article “Building up to an Internal Family Systems model”. My most recent reply to it started getting rather long, and is also more broadly relevant as it contains updates on... |
c6679639-42eb-4f39-a758-3dd4b17f80e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Curiosity needs courage
This is a linkpost for https://amirbolous.com/posts/curiosity
* Introduction
* Growing Up
* The Missing Link
* Closing Thoughts
Introduction
One of the most courageous people I've ever met is my five year old cousin Max. He has no trouble sprinting across the road when cars speed by, whi... |
3c5dd62b-cca6-4e7c-a2b8-28b1447572e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taboo "Outside View"
> No one has ever seen an AGI takeoff, so any attempt to understand it must use these outside view considerations.
—[Redacted for privacy]
> What? That’s exactly backwards. If we had lots of experience with past AGI takeoffs, using the outside view to predict the next one would be a lot more eff... |
aa30697a-29ce-4799-8367-194dbe6076e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you wrote a letter to your future self every day, what would you put in it?
Several days ago, I wrote an email to myself.
That email will now be sent to me every day.
All it is is a single draft in my Gmail drafts folder, with the Mail Conductor extension sending it out at 10:00 am. I can modify the draft wheneve... |
f6dbc014-7d03-4392-91f5-bdfa0eed4f09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How quickly could an AI go from the first indications of problems to an unrecoverable disaster?
If the AI system was [deceptively aligned](/?state=8EL6&question=What%20is%20deceptive%20alignment%3F) or had been in stealth mode while getting things in place for a takeover, quite possibly within hours. We may get more w... |
0fd63578-ead6-402e-8612-6e96797ea2e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI "Boxing" and Utility Functions
So, I had this idea the other day when I was thinking about how to safely conduct research on potentially-FOOM-capable AI software. I'd like to sketch it out briefly and then get feedback on it.
So, this started out with the idea that an AI based on AIXI is, in some sense, safer... |
c1f2d387-0296-41ab-a53c-0183e96a4a80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Claim: Scenario planning is preferable to quantitative forecasting for understanding and coping with AI progress
As part of my work for MIRI on forecasting, I'm considering the implications of what I've read up for the case of thinking about AI. My purpose isn't to actually come to concrete conclusions about AI progre... |
19bd638f-0f15-4d99-aa4f-d932a3cb0b7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conspiracy Investigation Done Right
In 1996, TWA Flight 800 exploded and crashed into the ocean off the coast of Long Island, killing all 230 people on board. After an extensive four-year investigation, the NTSB concluded the explosion was caused by a short circuit ignition within the center fuel tank. Or at least tha... |
746943be-fa61-45af-bea6-7bac8d99b094 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aumann voting; or, How to vote when you're ignorant
As Robin Hanson is fond of pointing out, people would often get better answers by taking other people's answers more into account. See Aumann's Agreement Theorem.
The application is obvious if you're computing an answer for your personal use. But how do you apply ... |
1912813a-6768-4792-9bcb-62161936b730 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Considered Harmful (In Politics)
Why you should be very careful about trying to openly seek truth in any political discussion
1. Rationality considered harmful for Scott Aaronson in the great gender debate
In 2015, complexity theorist and rationalist Scott Aaronson was foolhardy enough to step into th... |
b173493a-f576-4c69-903c-07b1f83b9e11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #6: Examples of AI safety progress, Yoshua Bengio proposes a ban on AI agents, and lessons from nuclear arms control
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [h... |
c844d41c-4d35-4c06-a482-ed3b7d57784b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Verifiable Reinforcement Learning via Policy Extraction
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning has proven to be a promising approach for automatically learning policies for control problems [[11](#bib.bib11), [22](#bib.bib22), [29](#bib.bib29)]. However, an important challenge limiting real-worl... |
00bcca45-1e48-4651-98fb-2cf4571aea14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "textbooks are all you need"
"[Textbooks Are All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.11644)" was published yesterday by Microsoft Research. It's the worst-named paper I've seen recently: it's not about textbooks, it's not all you need, and gratuitously imitating the title of [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762... |
be103677-0de3-4f6a-b41f-c37cb5ec19fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Immortality Project
An interesting article on the Immortality Project at UC Riverside. This is the website.
This seems like something for LWers to look into - they're offering grants and essay prizes. |
84a7a169-e39d-4aef-829d-0c2af987c28d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The omnizoid - Heighn FDT Debate #3: Contra omnizoid contra me contra omnizoid contra FDT
omnizoid has replied to my critique of his "FDT is crazy" position here. This post is my response.
> The most important argument against FDT is that, while it’s a fine account of what type of agent you want to be, at least, in m... |
708b0f6c-fc9e-4f03-8cae-16f6307e16d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideological Turing Test Domains
Hello! I'm running an Ideological Turing Test for my local rationality group, and I'm wondering what ideology to use (and what prompts to use for that ideology). Palladias has previously run a number of tests on Christianity, but ideally I'd find something that was a good 50/50 split fo... |
51eb54f8-513e-4b6d-8f56-e827c06b5daa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Using Pre-Training Can Improve Model Robustness and Uncertainty
1 Introduction
---------------
Pre-training is a central technique in the research and applications of deep convolutional neural networks (AlexNet). In research settings, pre-training is ubiquitously applied in state-of-the-art object detection and seg... |
20dc552b-eb53-4986-bf79-25112418597d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Small Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Small Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 23 May 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2128 Oxford St, Berkeley, CA
This will be a small Berkeley meetup. We will be meeting at Oxford St Starbucks and then proceeding to a local restaurant for dinner.
Discussion article... |
35bbb78e-6c49-429f-91e3-1ce872acd679 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Complete Feedback
A simple, weak notion of corrigibility is having a "complete" feedback interface. In logical induction terms, I mean the AI trainer can insert any trader into the market. I want to contrast this with "partial" feedback, in which only some propositions get feedback and others ("latent" propositions) f... |
b181a261-8681-4fe9-82b7-2b0ed49f37c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Would "Manhattan Project" style be beneficial or deleterious for AI Alignment?
Manhattan Project was quite a unique (at least the most well-known) case when a group of famous scientists succeeded to [persuade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein%E2%80%93Szilard_letter) the government that particular technology is a... |
a928eadd-1b06-4bd1-9b3a-9ec5ddca2ce2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we achieve AGI Alignment by balancing multiple human objectives?
Can we improve alignment of hypothetical superintelligent AGI by shaping their reward functions on a balance of multiple human objectives?
Perhaps one important key to AGI Alignment is not to overthink it. If we want AGI to avoid certain misaligned ... |
8599d35d-b52b-46eb-a9ce-a321743e8c77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AMA Conjecture, A New Alignment Startup
> [Conjecture](https://www.conjecture.dev/) is a new alignment startup founded by Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour, which aims to scale alignment research. We have VC backing from, among others, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, An... |
1c04fddb-e8b2-457e-8c1f-13a7e0df02a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | An early warning system for novel AI risks
#### New research proposes a framework for evaluating general-purpose models against novel threats
To pioneer responsibly at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence (AI) research, we must identify new capabilities and novel risks in our AI systems as early as possible.
... |
da99ef40-6852-4335-a3fa-8548b8a8aad5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Argument For Spoilers
I'll say it right up-front: this is not an argument against cooperating with people who are trying to avoid spoilers. It's obviously a good idea to avoid spoiling people who don't want to be spoiled, so long as such people are sufficiently prevalent in the population that the minor inconvenie... |
cd3edbe8-37cb-4069-9449-3bfd9d85e37b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Game Theory YouTube Videos
I made a series of game theory videos that carefully go through the mechanics of solving many different types of games. I optimized the videos for my future Smith College game theory students who will either miss a class, or get lost in class and want more examples. I emphasize cla... |
52a94452-3353-490d-be66-21b0f4e0db4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
Rob Rhinehart's food replacement Soylent now has a crowdfunding campaign.
> Soylent frees you from the time and money spent shopping, cooking and cleaning, puts you in excellent health, and vastly reduces your environmental impact by eliminating much of the waste and harm coming from agric... |
f71d313e-91c7-4426-a021-f54d6c7a139c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Nature of Counterfactuals
I'm finally beginning to feel that I have a clear idea of the true nature of counterfactuals. In this post I'll argue that counterfactuals are just intrinsicly a part of how we make sense of the world. However, it would be inaccurate to present them as purely a human invention as we were ... |
017678a7-5c3b-402e-accd-6ae47601b866 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Discussion of Controversial Topics
Two months ago we began testing an experimental website for Rational Discussion of Politics. Our main goal was to create a platform that would allow high quality discussion of controversial topics without resorting to any forms of censorship. The website is now ready and ne... |
5cb62c25-46d0-4fa4-9c06-d4aca647b070 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post47
We published the MONA paper about three months ago. Since then we’ve had many conversations about the work, and want to share some of the main updates that people make after talking to us: The realism of our model organisms What does "approval" mean Isn't this just RLHF? Why should we care about reward hack... |
e8886b96-d161-4600-ae9c-0ed4bfb425a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava Meetup VI.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava Meetup VI.
WHEN: 19 August 2013 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Heydukova 21, Bratislava
How to change yourself (in Slovak language).
Stretneme sa o šiestej v bistre The Peach na Heydukovej ulici (priamo oproti poliklinike). ... |
1dc46354-469a-4ef3-a726-684744555911 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Multi-Agent Inverse Reinforcement Learning: Suboptimal Demonstrations and Alternative Solution Concepts
This research was recently completed within the AI Safety division of the Stanford Existential Risk Initiative and concerns methods for reward learning in multi-agent systems.
Abstract: Multi-agent inverse reinfo... |
2dffbfdf-c8b7-4b62-9164-b0ee0983063c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Key Mostly Outward-Facing Facts From the Story of VaccinateCA
I had the privilege of getting an advance draft of Patrick McKenzie’s very long story founding and running VaccinateCA, an organization dedicated to providing Americans information on where and how to get vaccinated against Covid-19.
It is an amazing docum... |
e5a4e113-9433-4ea6-85ff-d7c9f02a7c4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying and predicting AGI
This post is a slightly-adapted summary of two twitter threads, here and here.
The t-AGI framework
As we get closer to AGI, it becomes less appropriate to treat it as a binary threshold. Instead, I prefer to treat it as a continuous spectrum defined by comparison to time-limited humans.... |
0faf040d-230a-4141-9c69-03bc3e78c8f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Taijitu symbol for Moloch and Slack
There is a balance between Moloch (which I think of as the forces of exploitation) and Slack (which I think of as the forces of exploration).
Scott Alexander writes:
> Think of slack as a paradox – the Taoist art of winning competitions by not trying too hard at them. Moloch and... |
3f2f5464-7186-47e3-ad61-5abc1422bbd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | October Monthly Bragging Thread
Since it had a decent amount of traffic until a good two weeks into September (and I thought it was a good idea), I'm reviving this thread.
Joshua_Blaine:
> In an attempt to encourage more people to actually do awesome things (a la instrumental rationality), I am proposing a new month... |
0187eb6e-b17b-41f3-a702-e911e00d4098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | World's First Octopus Farm - Linkpost to a Linkpost
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jSaAitdE5ejv4xj4P/world-s-first-octopus-farm-linkpost |
456aaa7b-f1cc-40a2-8a1f-6617aab795ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Conversation on AI risk with Adam Gleave
*You can see a full transcript of this conversation on our* [*website*](https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/#Transcript)*.*
Summary
-------
We spoke with Adam Gleave on August 27, 2019. Here is a brief summary of that conversation:
* Gleave gives a number ... |
10737cb5-00d6-4564-a568-3c855a19fe1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin
Epistemic status: Big if true/I am clearly an idiot for even posting this.
Some apparently real journalists have been approached by (& approached) several intelligence officials, some tasked specifically with investigating UFOs, who claim that th... |
dfaf49c5-d078-4622-b9f7-be3f7e59e032 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 107 loci associated with intelligence | bioRxiv
None |
4678b12c-f77a-4998-9dee-470c388217ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worth keeping
(Epistemic status: quick speculation which matches my intuitions about how social things go, but which I hadn’t explicitly described before, and haven’t checked.)
If your car gets damaged, should you invest more or less in it going forward? It could go either way. The car needs more investment to be in ... |
b416f513-5e67-4ea7-9233-816b1147ccb6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Grabby aliens and Zoo hypothesis
Robin Hanson created a model of grabby aliens. In this model, we live before the arrival of an alien colonisation wave, because such a wave will prevent the appearance of the new civilizations. Thus, we could find ourselves only before the arrival of the aliens if any exists in our Un... |
92fbeb87-56d3-4a4e-8269-d1ff61e0fc27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Human control over fully autonomous systems: a philosophical exploration (Giulio Mecacci)
turns as usual we're probably going to
leave this room potentially even more
confused than we arrived in some cases
in some cases i'm not sure this is one
of those it's a good thing right but
we'll see so let's get it started um
... |
78bf3371-14a5-418c-b67a-b5ab75705902 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Something to fight for
> A short science fiction story illustrating that if we fail to solve alignment, humanity risks losing not only 8 billion lives.
He opened his eyes. The room was plain white.
"You remember enough?" asked the familiar voice.
"Enough," he replied. He stood. Everything balanced.
He walked ca... |
0044fdf1-feaa-4485-8448-685bab3b6690 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin
WHEN: 01 January 2019 01:30:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Berlin, Germany
This is a long term meetup announcement for Berlin. We're not sure we'll actually meet on the date given here, but there'll definitely be meetups (usually at least monthly) in the meantime.
Pl... |
1b3e5071-c87f-4a19-ac14-cd427677b83e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The genie knows, but doesn't care
Followup to: The Hidden Complexity of Wishes, Ghosts in the Machine, Truly Part of You
Summary: If an artificial intelligence is smart enough to be dangerous, we'd intuitively expect it to be smart enough to know how to make itself safe. But that doesn't mean all smart AIs are safe. ... |
a4cebe4c-17fb-4df1-99dc-644a36027d15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there specific books that it might slightly help alignment to have on the internet?
Books, and ideas, have occasionally changed specific human beings, and thereby history. (I think.)
I used to think it utterly implausible when people suggested that "AIs are our kids, we need to raise them right" or that e.g. hav... |
47f2b496-b11e-4212-a343-570ac0200be1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A one-sentence formulation of the AI X-Risk argument I try to make
Unprecedented dangers
inevitably follow
from exponentially scaling
powerful technology
that we do not understand.
n.b. I'm a masters student in international policy (this program). In my experience, policy oriented folks do not understand that lines f... |
5db3479f-6022-4abd-8503-5b657eb19ea9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Zendo, Tower of Chaos
Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Zendo, Tower of Chaos
WHEN: 24 August 2016 07:40:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2
Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift games! In that games, some rati... |
ec4ca606-c565-4e9d-9d9d-3e0c6c4b7f84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applying refusal-vector ablation to a Llama 3 70B agent
TLDR; I demonstrate the use of refusal vector ablation on Llama 3 70B to create a bad agent that can attempt malicious tasks such as trying to persuade and pay me to assassinate another individual. I introduce some early work on a benchmark for Safe Agents which ... |
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