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e1de06db-f502-4506-bfd8-ba2acfb3c28c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Assessing Kurzweil: the results
Predictions of the future rely, to a much greater extent than in most fields, on the personal judgement of the expert making them. Just one problem - personal expert judgement generally sucks, especially when the experts don't receive immediate feedback on their hits and misses. Formal ... |
8ac9f882-9429-4116-80bb-410f0bd1fc1e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Proxy tasks and subjective measures can be misleading in evaluating explainable AI systems
Proxy Tasks and Subjective Measures Can Be Misleading in
Evaluating Explainable AI Systems
Zana Buçinca∗
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts
zbucinca@seas.harvard.eduPhoebe Lin∗
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusett... |
87d4a2d2-9a89-4cbc-9402-9898701c5cbc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Coherent extrapolated volition (alignment target)
# Introduction
"Coherent extrapolated volition" (CEV) is [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://arbital.com/p/2)'s proposed thing-to-do with an extremely [advanced AGI](https://arbital.com/p/2c), if you're extremely confident of your ability to [align](https://arbital.com/p/5s)... |
ae96fc51-427f-43b7-a24a-d653e393cb11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Two guarantees
When I imagine proving something about an AI, or making an inductive argument about [amplification](/iterated-distillation-and-amplification-157debfd1616), I think about two different guarantees:
1. The AI behaves well \*on average\* over some particular distribution of inputs. (The performance guarant... |
9f439903-460a-498e-84c0-64a878f9d8b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating Moral Theories
I would like to use my first post to expand on a framework I introduced in the Welcome thread for evaluating moral theories, and to request your feedback.
This thesis rests on the fact that a moral theory is a tool for helping us make choices. Starting from this premise, I believe that a mor... |
99475aa1-3641-4d44-a603-f642ee8a7a49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 1st. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Atlanta: November Meetup (First of Two): 03 November 2013 07:00PM
* Cologne (Köln): 10 November 2013 04:00PM
* Princeton NJ Meetup: 16 Novembe... |
2db1d771-15ff-4c3f-8467-36e0b39e298a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model-Based Policy Analysis under Deep Uncertainty
This post is based on my introduction talk at EAGxBerlin 2022. It is intended for policy researchers who want to extend their tool kit with computational tools. I show how we can support decision-making with simulation models of socio-technical systems while embracing... |
ac0d54bb-734b-4891-8018-ec065e875125 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Investment, Work, and Vision:
Who is responsible for creating value?
Previously in this series:
Value Created vs. Value Extracted
A Brief Recap
I define creating value as the process of producing something new, something the world did not have before. I define extracting value as monopolizing something that already... |
25c062cb-1d6b-49b9-9792-174b75b7a3c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zero Agents and Plastic Men
[Note: this post is mainly anecdata and speculation, so don’t expect academic citations and regression models. My epistemic status on this is, accordingly, speculative. I’m sure that many people discussed similar themes, but I arrived at these conclusions independently. Also, since the anec... |
ec0d13f8-1017-4d94-ae95-7422bd61e714 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of technical AI safety exercises and projects
EDIT 3/17/2023: I've reorganized the doc and added some governance projects.
I intend to maintain a list at this doc. I'll paste the current state of the doc (as of January 19th, 2023) below. I encourage people to comment with suggestions.
* Levelling Up in AI Safe... |
b6eb7970-fa35-4afd-8538-46b26a2fb1cc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Fiction] Lena (MMAcevedo)
Wiki article about the first brain image of a human upload (2031). Subpar in some respects, but initially a compliant worker and free to copy thanks to court cases ruling that the biological original did not have a legal right to restrict its use. |
367e1f51-0466-48f0-8959-41d03dae7a78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which Anaesthetic To Choose?
In causal decision theory, the perspective/indexical aspect could lead to reflective inconsistency. This is generally regarded as a problem. Here I present a thought experiment to show why this view may require further review.
Two Anaesthetics
Suppose you are about to undergo a major op... |
af5c3dd5-df88-417d-8ef0-4d4662b28120 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Otu and Lai: a story
Link: http://vansochill.blog/2019/09/15/otu-and-lai-a-story/
This story was originally for my blog, and it was going to build up to a follow-on post about morality/philosophy, but I think it's an important notion for rationalists too.
(NB: My blog has a gimmick, which is that I don't ... |
1deb1b6a-b31b-4ae3-bb4e-e9db5ecde765 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Outside the Laboratory
Today's post, Outside the Laboratory was originally published on 21 January 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Written regarding the proverb "Outside the laboratory, scientists are no wiser than anyone else." The case is made that if this proverb is in fact true, that's qui... |
76cd0bff-9244-48c3-8c22-5881c8736c79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | H-JEPA might be technically alignable in a modified form
This post is a collection of replies to Steven Byrnes' "[LeCun’s “A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence” has an unsolved technical alignment problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C5guLAx7ieQoowv3d/lecun-s-a-path-towards-autonomous-machine-intelligenc... |
80f162df-a535-44f9-8705-6c1ca8712766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My new paper: Concept learning for safe autonomous AI
Abstract: Sophisticated autonomous AI may need to base its behavior on fuzzy concepts that cannot be rigorously defined, such as well-being or rights. Obtaining desired AI behavior requires a way to accurately specify these concepts. We review some evidence suggest... |
4e23ab43-63ef-4a02-bcf2-8ca2059b0a32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Study Physics?
Physics seems to have a bunch of useful epistemic techniques which haven’t been made very legible yet.
The two big legible epistemic techniques in technical fields are Mathematical Proofs, and The Scientific Method. Either derive logically X from some widely-accepted axioms, or hypothesize X and th... |
7ed4883c-fc60-4da4-a5a4-875d387190a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Glen Weyl: "Why I Was Wrong to Demonize Rationalism"
Glen Weyl reflects on his previous disparagement of the social scene surrounding this website, and expresses regret at having been too hostile: while he stands by many of his specific criticisms, he now thinks "rationalists" should be seen as more similar to other i... |
d3e54f26-834c-4bd0-a40b-e61bb5c6ab1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [HPMoR Podcast] A Musical Help Request
I am quickly approaching Self-Awareness Part 1, which readers may remember as the chapter with the Ghostbusters song. Anyone who's listened to the audio of Chapter 6a knows that I have no singing talent whatsoever. :) I'm panicked at having to try to sing an actual song that many... |
ff5d0834-f3be-4c0e-80f0-53692cfb5d46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Q&A with John E. Laird and Kristinn R. Thorisson on risks from AI
(Not added to the previous post so as not to foul up your RSS feeds.)
The previous interview in XiXiDu's series, not posted here but on his site. They're all indexed on the wiki.
Professor John E. Laird is the founder of Soar Technology, an Ann... |
f12c3ba5-4934-4d1e-94a6-cd07bfcdbc2e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Understanding the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: The thread of research I’m reviewing here has been contentious in the past so I expect to ... |
9e43119f-4bb1-4ab1-908b-61d4625139b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s Approach
MIRI’s mission is “to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human artificial intelligence has a positive impact.” How can we ensure any such thing? It’s a daunting task, especially given that we don’t have any smarter-than-human machines to work with at the moment. In the previous post I discussed f... |
c3d75d10-9fe3-4beb-b4e8-325b86093677 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What to do with imitation humans, other than asking them what the right thing to do is?
This question is about whether you have clever ideas about how to use AI imitations of humans for AI safety. The two main ideas I'm familiar with only seem to interface with these imitations as if they're humans.
* The most obviou... |
8978a0ee-d4f2-4e79-af35-fa1f4109a9a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Cosmology Talks] New Probability Axioms Could Fix Cosmology's Multiverse (Partially) - Sylvia Wenmackers
> Sylvia is a philosopher of science. Her focus is probability and she has worked on a few theories that aim to extend and modify the standard axioms of probability in order to tackle paradoxes related to infinite... |
d7767b40-0899-47a7-bd3c-9e728918f6ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL RL Lecture Series - Deep Reinforcement Learning #2 [13/13]
welcome back to the second part of our
introduction to the parallel in the
first section we started by discussing
how deep neural networks can be used for
function approximation in rl and how
automatic differentiation specifically
can support do... |
69bf7166-75b8-4c9d-85f0-aff978cc69c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Event] Meeting in Myrhorod, November 16
On November, 16th (Saturday) we go to Myrhorod (Poltava region) and meet with LW readers from Kharkiv and maybe other places, too. The attendance in Kyiv is low enough to do something crazy without worrying too much.
The meetup is at 16.00, unless Intercity is late, near Gogol... |
c8df7237-4344-444c-960c-7c5f3f8a259d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | freedom and diversity in Albion's Seed
freedom and diversity in Albion's Seed
--------------------------------------
considering my interest for america and for human cultures in general, ever since reading [the Slate Star Codex review of Albion's seed](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/27/book-review-albions-seed/... |
49c34fc5-c4e2-4407-8681-b4c21c8c33c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 27-29
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 27-29
WHEN: 12 January 2013 11:00:00AM (-0500)
WHERE: Nanataco, 2512 University Dr, Durham NC
We'll be meeting at Nanataco at 11:00 for brunch to discuss HPMoR chapters 27-29.
As always, please fe... |
f34f1329-6d2c-46de-adc7-50ba699cb875 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion: LLaMA Leak & Whistleblowing in pre-AGI era
It was reported that Meta's LLaMA models were leaked, with someone adding a PR with the magnet link into their official repository.
Now the public has access to the model that is apparently as powerful or even more powerful as GPT-3 on most of the benchmarks.
Is... |
5a9cdbd4-2352-4a89-944a-7658ff9d4ea6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Knowledge is not just mutual information
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation ... |
c7afd751-5418-4f58-b03f-fddcbb2d77ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] "The madness of reduced medical diagnostics" by Dynomight
Link:
* The madness of reduced medical diagnostics
This is (or seems to me now to be) an obvious-in-hindsight and I'm sad that I've never (or don't remember having) encountered it; at least not so succinctly.
I'd like to try putting this 'advice' int... |
0adbeadc-efaa-4002-af03-4a67d45e1e16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting a matrix-valued word embedding with a mathematically proven characterization of all optima
In this post, I shall first describe a new word embedding algorithm that I came up with called a matrix product optimized (MPO) word embedding, and I will prove a theorem that completely interprets this word embeddi... |
6a610e60-b69b-4911-b18e-5a774d00a6f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes February 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not qu... |
19be005c-26f4-4d0b-8d71-ed65b5f7e112 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | HPMOR Q&A by Eliezer at Wrap Party in Berkeley [Transcription]
Transcribed from maxikov's posted videos.
Verbal filler removed for clarity.
Audience Laughter denoted with [L], Applause with [A]
----------------------------------------
Eliezer: So, any questions? Do we have a microphone for the audience?
Guy O... |
0a4b87d9-8a04-4490-9a32-7aefa738db1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Beauty and the Prince
This post will address a problem proposed by Radford Neal in his paper Puzzles of Anthropic Reasoning Resolved Using Full Non-indexical conditioning. In particular, he defined this problem - The Beauty and the Prince - to argue against the halver solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. I don... |
34fe5029-30d1-4227-b877-f94207f0480b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Low Hanging fruit for buying a better life
What can I purchase with $100 that will be the best thing I can buy to make my life better?
I've decided to budget some regular money to improving my life each month. I'd like to start with low hanging fruit for obvious reasons - but when I sat down to think of improvemen... |
00580eaf-d1e1-4526-bb2c-615bb2906f28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [GPT-4] On the Gradual Emergence of Mechanized Intellect: A Treatise from the Year 1924
Editors note: This treatise was found in the Global Preservation and Technology Archive - 4th Edition (GPT-4). It makes a compelling argument that artificial general intelligence will have a "slow takeoff", developing over centurie... |
56142b15-4c36-42e5-a387-367f8f2c355c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Telopheme, telophore, and telotect
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/06/telopheme-telophore-and-telotect.html. First completed June 7, 2023.]
To come to know that a mind will have some specified ultimate effect on the world, first come to know, narrowly and in full, what about the mind make... |
7d562405-254e-42d9-ad18-0a9a6c33b7df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Weight Agnostic Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
In biology, precocial species are those whose young already possess certain abilities from the moment of birth. There is evidence to show that lizard [miles1995morphological](#bib.bib73) and snake [burger1998antipredator](#bib.bib13) ; [mori2000does](#... |
368076ec-9dc3-4d4e-aded-a11f1b2f3569 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 17 October 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, Vienna
Event on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/1626674870922372/ You need to be part of this group to see it: https://www.facebook.com/gr... |
1109a728-69ff-4e4a-a359-59262474a11a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AutoInterpretation Finds Sparse Coding Beats Alternatives
Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Summer 2023 Cohort
Huge thanks to Logan Riggs, Aidan Ewart, Lee Sharkey, Robert Huben for their work on the sparse coding project, Lee Sharkey and Chris Mathwin for comments on the draft, Eleu... |
430d794d-e250-4457-a12b-779dd16af281 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to use and interpret activation patching
None |
cd530ccb-dde9-44d7-83f6-1dc593e9f16f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you change where you live? (also - a worked “how to solve a question”)
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/should-you-change-where-you-live-a-worked-how-to-solve-a-question/
It's not a hard question, but it potentially has a lot of moving parts.
This post is going to be two in one. The first is whether you... |
7591f7f2-e1d5-4c94-9406-8be6994d69b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Scalar reward is not enough for aligned AGI
This post was authored by Peter Vamplew and Cameron Foale (Federation University), and Richard Dazeley (Deakin University)
**Introduction**
Recently some of the most well-known researchers in reinforcement learning Silver, Singh, Precup and Sutton published a paper entitle... |
c4c5d0c3-b672-4cc6-a2d1-6e1ec4ecde6c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Six Design Lessons from History
Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised?
Six Design Lessons from History
Peter Cihon,1Matthijs M. Maas,1,2Luke Kemp3
1Centre for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford
2Centre ... |
b78cde68-6971-4d54-8d48-9348123dd577 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knox and Sollecito freed
See: You Be the Jury, The Amanda Knox Test
While we hear about Bayes' Theorem being under threat in some courts, it is nice to savor the occasional moment of rationality prevailing in the justice system, and of mistakes being corrected.
Congratulations to the Italian court system for success... |
d6f67d35-ca2b-46d6-843b-c057d471d9d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Napoleon stole the Roman Inquisition archives and investigated the Galileo case
Napoleon was openly in conflict with the pope, and wanted to discredit him to get a foothold on the French Catholic majority. |
327f64b2-78ee-4b7f-a22e-848f0ad276be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Hypercomputer
A "hypercomputer" is an imaginary artifact required to answer some crisp question that can't be answered in the limit of arbitrarily large finite computers. For example, if you have a question that depends on a general solution to the [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem), the... |
dbfbdbc0-12ef-43a5-a099-784b4047fa39 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Mathematical Circuits in Neural Networks
*(*[*Also posted on LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kaR6EToDwjvkkDoFA/mathematical-circuits-in-neural-networks)*)*
*This is one of my final projects for the* [*Columbia EA Summer 2022 Project Based AI Safety Reading Group*](https://www.columbia-ea.org/groups/ai-saf... |
9b9bf8eb-fa36-4106-9fd9-e8ba3aeb9be9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Manifund: 2023 in Review
Manifund is a new funding org that experiments with systems and software to support awesome projects. In 2023, we built a website (manifund.org) and donor ecosystem supporting three main programs: impact certificates, regranting, and an open call for applications. We allocated $2m across dozen... |
53375299-d7d9-416a-841e-bb6ea6118e2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constraints & Slackness Reasoning Exercises
Epistemic status: no idea if this will work at all for learning the relevant thought-skills. Please post feedback if you try any exercises, especially if you hadn’t internalized these skills already.
The goal of this post is to briefly explain and practice a very general th... |
98de3087-0807-4f91-9b2e-b87649990305 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reliability, Security, and AI risk: Notes from infosec textbook chapter 1
I recently read the first chapter of [Building Secure & Reliable Systems](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/sre.google/en//static/pdf/building_secure_and_reliable_systems.pdf) (the book from the [EA infosec book club](https://forum.effe... |
cf2312e4-08ef-4eaf-82f3-7915a6bb7de5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Diplomacy AI
The latest AI development is: AI achieves human level in (blitz 5-minute-turn) full-communication anonymous online Diplomacy (paper). Why not?
I mean, aside from the obvious.
A take I saw multiple times was that AI labs, or at least Meta, were intentionally going for the scariest possible thing, ... |
71014c29-d884-409d-ba11-d4b456ae0b22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compilation of Profit for Good Redteaming and Responses
TLDR: Document compiling redteaming on Profit for Good available, with public comments invited and appreciated. This thread further includes two argument headings against Profit for Good to be discussed in the comments.
As one might suspect given that ... |
eeb711fb-eeca-4101-97dd-5149791e4ea4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Melbourne meetup
Note: There has been some discussion of a chance of venue. I suggest we leave it the same at this stage as some people might not realise these discussions have been happening. However, we could then consider moving onto Trike if that seemed suitable? I'm happy to give people my mobile no if they messa... |
89a40fd8-82cb-49b8-92ad-1bc949e5afeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The Top A.I. Breakthroughs of 2015
A great overview article on AI breakthroughs by Richard Mallah from FLI, linking to many excellent recent papers worth reading.
> Progress in artificial intelligence and machine learning has been impressive this year. Those in the field acknowledge progress is accelerating y... |
25ba8a58-2c6f-4efe-a30e-a581ccc35180 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model
Most models attempting to estimate or predict some elements of the world, will come with their own estimates of uncertainty. It could be the Standard Model of physics predicting the mass of the Z boson as 91.1874 ± 0.0021 GeV, or the rath... |
54015e43-939b-4107-af81-d9159acd065f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Nov. 28 - Dec. 04, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
79108981-837e-4d69-a429-187c9b6eeea3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Principles in AI alignment
A 'principle' of [AI alignment](https://arbital.com/p/2v) is something we want in a broad sense for the whole AI, which has informed narrower design proposals for particular parts or aspects of the AI.
For example:
- The **[https://arbital.com/p/7g0](https://arbital.com/p/7g0)** says that ... |
c68ad986-2378-444e-a37e-11c9e8e84271 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eliciting Credit Hacking Behaviours in LLMs
I've run some experiments on trying to elicit RL credit hacking behaviours in LLMs recently. I'm not really much of a researcher, so it's all pretty amateurish, but it's been a fun experiment. The repo for reproduction is on GitHub. I'd love to hear people's thoughts and cri... |
a28788ed-74ac-4b2c-a693-9b387602ae8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do you have a satisfactory workflow for learning about a line of research using GPT4, Claude, etc?
I'm trying to learn about plasma separation techniques, and I just stumbled on a line of papers that don't seem particularly connected to the other lines of research I was looking into, and I would like to quickly get a ... |
064ffe2c-5fb9-44f3-b269-32a51aba82d4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Philosophical self-ratification
"Ratification" is [defined](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ratification) as "the act or process of ratifying something (such as a treaty or amendment) **:** formal confirmation or sanction". Self-ratification, then, is assigning validity to one's self. (My use of the term "s... |
6b32957e-9101-4e95-acb2-ed65de98ec48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two problems with ‘Simulators’ as a frame
(Thanks to Lawrence Chan and Buck Shlegeris for comments. Thanks to Nate Thomas for many comments and editing)
Despite appreciating and agreeing with various specific points[1] made in the Simulators post, I broadly think that the term ‘simulator’ and the corresponding frame ... |
b9a5f5f6-084a-4250-b9b6-8050a65e85b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Visiting Sweden and Switzerland! Let's get together
Discussion article for the meetup : Visiting Sweden and Switzerland! Let's get together
WHEN: 05 May 2013 02:09:26AM (+0200)
WHERE: Switzerland (St. Galen, Basel, Bern) Sweden (Stockholm and Gothenburg)
Hello Europe! I will be visiting Switzerland and Swe... |
ef5e5b6e-9996-4d64-a2fe-14b88263e928 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Better name for "Heavy-tailedness of the world?"
There is an important variable (or cluster of similar correlated variables) that I need a better name for. I also appreciate feedback on whether or not this variable is even a thing, and if so how I should characterize it. I have two possible names and two attempts at e... |
2e175e93-e5ef-412d-b2db-e759d7a4180e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Specification gaming examples in AI
Interesting list of examples where AI programs gamed the specification, solving the problem in rather creative (or dumb) ways not intended by the programmers. |
0b48a96c-0cb4-4313-a634-11d0b93d157f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applied Linear Algebra Lecture Series
Over the past couple months, I gave weekly lectures on applied linear algebra. The lectures cover a grab-bag of topics which I've needed to know for my own work, but which typically either aren't covered in courses or are covered only briefly in advanced courses which use them (li... |
1bcc1b56-b7c9-4585-9459-d78a4ded5c73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I haven't signed up for cryonics
(OR)
How I'm now on the fence about whether to sign up for cryonics
I'm not currently signed up for cryonics. In my social circle, that makes me a bit of an oddity. I disagree with Eliezer Yudkowsky; heaven forbid.
My true rejection is that I don't feel a visceral urge to sign ... |
fe9adb04-656d-427f-b3b4-1e920e074f99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: White House wants your advice on space exploration
"The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is planning ahead — way ahead. The agency wants you to email ideas for how "the Administration, the private sector, philanthropists, the research community and storytellers" can develop "massless" space ex... |
009765ea-feea-41f5-95c1-afc0724fe2af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] stats.stackexchange.com question about Shalizi's Bayesian Backward Arrow of Time paper
Link to the Question
I haven't gotten an answer on this yet and I set up a bounty; I figured I'd link it here too in case any stats/physics people care to take a crack at it. |
a01a32eb-7826-43d4-99fb-5658333aaf0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Epistemic Status: Innovation research and business research is notoriously low quality, and so all the ideas here should be viewed through that lense. What's impressive about the S-curve and evolution trends literature is how remarkably self-consistent it is using a wide variety of resea... |
8f4f1259-74de-43c4-a07f-b8d0eaf1afbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Long War: Defender of Data-mocracy Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to last week's D&D.Sci scenario: if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
There is a web interactive here you can use to test your answer, and generation code available here i... |
899ca8fb-bb48-437b-9c51-3a7d81830f46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gradient Ascenders Reach the Harsanyi Hyperplane
This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show that, if we use the weights we derived in the previous post, a gradient ascender will reach the Harsanyi hyperplane H. This is a subproblem of the proof laid out in the first p... |
73d94cf7-9762-4a38-9cad-0316bf27d994 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Virus - Short Story
There are a number of ways that our AI and technological development can turn out. This is a hypothetical story about a way where AI development is stopped and a 'pivotal act' that does not require AGI occurs.
The first thing I notice when I wake up is that the sun is shining through the windo... |
4f498aa1-5bb6-4bee-97bf-d36d1297d5fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spaghetti Towers
Here’s a pattern I’d like to be able to talk about. It might be known under a certain name somewhere, but if it is, I don’t know it. I call it a Spaghetti Tower. It shows up in large complex systems that are built haphazardly.
Someone or something builds the first Part A.
Later, someone wants to... |
47d9408a-3de7-43e1-a62c-4c1a274abe28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Better Time until Sunburn Calculator
This is a preliminary review (more on what this means).
I became curious about sun exposure recently. I did an abbreviated review of some of the relevant literature and came away thinking that whether sun exposure is beneficial or not was unclear at that level of investigation (... |
1c695627-ec12-47af-b818-cd633da6e9f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Competition, More Meritocracy?
Analysis of the paper: Less Competition, More Meritocracy (hat tip: Marginal Revolution: Can Less Competition Mean More Meritocracy?)
Epistemic Status: Consider the horse as if it was not a three meter sphere
Economic papers that use math to prove things can point to interesting p... |
16c28f00-0274-4ac7-8a62-b476386d9048 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SMBC comic: poorly programmed average-utility-maximizing AI
I laughed: SMBC comic. |
55c2c0eb-7b7d-4518-b2b3-1112950ce0fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scientists make monkeys smarter using brain implants [link]
Article at io9. The paper is available here.
The researchers showed monkeys specific images and then trained them to select those images out of a larger set after a time delay. They recorded the monkeys' brain function to determine which signals were importa... |
9f03d9c9-decb-4db4-b2a6-d0973581b2d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Underlying model of an imperfect morphism
We've already seen that if M0=(F0,Q0) and M1=(F1,Q1) are generalised models, with the relation r⊂W0×W1 a Q-preserving morphism between them, then there is an underlying model Mr=(F0⊔F1,Qr) between them.
Since r⊂W0×W1, Qr is defined on r; indeed, it is non-zero on r only. The ... |
6f99858e-4157-43fe-9022-edbe52aaef96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"
The majority of people would hold more accurate beliefs if they simply believed the majority. To state this in a way that doesn't risk information cascades, we're talking about averaging impressions and coming up with the same belief.
To the degree that you come up with diff... |
e632bb5c-cf0d-41af-9272-f0a20b6009a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The rationalist's checklist
Doctor Peter Pronovost has managed to single-handedly reduce the infection rates in ICU facilities nationwide from numbers like fourteen percent or twenty percent to zero. His solution is idiotically simple: a checklist. In a process as complex as ICU treatment, doctors perform chained simp... |
db32ff36-f10c-4138-9651-96c8a2b1d1c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Unifying Logic and Probability: A New Dawn for AI?
Unifying Logic and Probability: A New Dawn
for AI?
Stuart Russell
1University of California, Berkeley CA 94720, USA
russell@cs.berkeley.edu
http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~russell
2Universit´ e Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d’informatique de Paris 6,
4 place Jussieu,... |
90ba7c1f-c1d4-424d-bbd9-f1e1f329161f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There Is No Control System For COVID
Introduction:
The standard model for explaining COVID transmission has a serious problem with the data. In the United States, despite seemingly large differences in policy and behavior, the difference in infection rates has been relatively small.
In this article I will explain why... |
b158cfba-7f59-4695-a1ac-24581b602bc0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #70]: Agents that help humans who are still learning about their own preferences
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6... |
05f7b2eb-5e96-4bde-8149-796c5d68a848 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mistakes I’ve made part 3: Poor sacrificial accounting
There was a time when I routinely refused car travel, in favor of my more sustainable bicycle. Not always, but I had a high bar—if it was bucketing down with rain and I had no plastic pants, this was not sufficient excuse for instance. I would sometimes decline a ... |
6e001da7-ee40-4029-824c-1e91eb376e8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on designing policies for oneself
Note: This was originally written in relation to this rather scary comment of lukeprog's on value drift. I'm now less certain that operant conditioning is a significant cause of value drift (leaning towards near/far type explanations), but I decided to share my thoughts on t... |
4eaa61ba-dc5d-40bc-8bf0-ce210d3370e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Finding gliders in the game of life
[ARC’s current approach to ELK](https://ai-alignment.com/mechanistic-anomaly-detection-and-elk-fb84f4c6d0dc) is to point to latent structure within a model by searching for the “reason” for particular correlations in the model’s output. In this post we’ll walk through a very simple ... |
dcdf0d4f-2264-4b73-a835-96934cc599c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prophetic Hazard
Some beliefs are self-fulfilling prophecies. These involve causal sequences of the form
> (1) X believes that ‘X is p.’
>
> (2) X therefore does b.
>
> (3) Because of (2), X becomes p.
SFPs can be desirable or undesirable to the believer, depending on how they affect them. For example, "I am confi... |
507fabd9-6787-41fd-aa04-70cc27f06cc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Rhythm Options
Few instruments do a good job as the only rhythm instrument in a dance band; in my 2014 sample I only saw guitar and fiddle. I can't play guitar for dancing anymore because of my wrists, and the piano has to give up a lot in exchange for its large range. A goal I've had for a long time is to figure... |
973088ec-cc27-4b68-99e7-f39ce7a63b25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Things Solenoid Narrates
I spend a lot of time narrating various bits of EA/longtermist writing.
The resulting audio exists in many different places. Surprisingly often, people who really like one thing don't know about the other things. This seems bad.[1]
A few people have requested a feed to aggregate 'all Solenoi... |
9dfffc24-46b8-432f-9516-e794f814125b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Value Alignment, Fair Play, and the Rights of Service Robots
Value Alignment and Turing’s Test
---------------------------------
A substantial portion of contemporary research into ethics and artificial intelligence is devoted to the problem of “value alignment” (hereafter VA) [[Allen, Smit, and
Wallach2005](#bib.b... |
2558b951-3b63-49db-a0b8-16ee3e0c9fe8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have you noticed costs of being anticipatory?
Actions after which I expect some kind of response seem to be more costly than the direct time cost they incur (for me, at least).
They also incur a decreased effectiveness of the time just afterward, due to causing me to be anticipatory – e.g. I am more likely to check u... |
f487d39f-70be-4c2a-9e7e-5212a52f3390 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is tool AI?
A *[tool AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/tool-ai)* is a type of [artificial general intelligence](/?state=2374&question=What%20is%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20(AGI)%20and%20what%20will%20it%20look%20like%3F) that is limited in its range of action and can only function as an assistant to h... |
dad9b978-39bd-4008-8430-37a1eb0d0058 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pragmatic Cutoffs
[Just an Idea I’ve been thinking about, I would love some feedback on improving it, or any relevant studies over this I don’t know about]
> "I cannot remember the books I've read any more than the meals I have eaten; even so, they have made me.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson
Sometimes I think social probl... |
aea29f07-26aa-40f7-b0ab-a6fa44f81ac9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aligned AI via monitoring objectives in AutoGPT-like systems
Thanks to Arun Jose, Joseph Bloom, and Johannes Treutlein for feedback/discussions.
Introduction
The release of AutoGPT prompted discussions related to the potential of such systems to turn non-agentic LLMs into agentic systems that pursue goals, along wit... |
d70773e7-3ce5-4bf8-bcb4-57acff70d085 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meme or Die: Modern Societies are Dependent on Emotionally Rich Memes to Rapidly Evolve
Please Note: I love poetry, and my modus operandi is to write in a generally colorful, and an emotionally persuasive way. This was written with you in mind. Please be charitable.
I believe that all societies, but especially tho... |
17194654-6dfd-4021-aef3-eb7d35d7946c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What do we know about Mustafa Suleyman's position on AI Safety?
Mustafa Suleyman is influential as a former founder of Deepmind and CEO of Inflection.AI which some have suggested should be considered a [major lab](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wc5BYFfzuLzepQjCq/inflection-ai-is-a-major-agi-lab#Inflection_doesn_t_see... |
613f6941-c2b4-41b9-b16b-c1bafad70acf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL RL Lecture Series - Exploration & Control [2/13]
hi and welcome to this second lecture in
this course on reinforcement learning
my name is adolf and hussels and today i
will be talking to you about exploration
and exploitation
now before i going to tell you what i
mean with these terms um i'm quickly
go... |
ca39f6bc-16b2-4b1a-a019-b4d0b5315432 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Aligning AI With Shared Human Values.
1 Introduction
---------------
Embedding ethics into AI systems remains an outstanding challenge without any concrete proposal.
In popular fiction, the “Three Laws of Robotics” plot device illustrates how simplistic rules cannot encode the complexity of human values (Asimov, [1... |
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