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e1de06db-f502-4506-bfd8-ba2acfb3c28c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Assessing Kurzweil: the results Predictions of the future rely, to a much greater extent than in most fields, on the personal judgement of the expert making them. Just one problem - personal expert judgement generally sucks, especially when the experts don't receive immediate feedback on their hits and misses. Formal ...
8ac9f882-9429-4116-80bb-410f0bd1fc1e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Proxy tasks and subjective measures can be misleading in evaluating explainable AI systems Proxy Tasks and Subjective Measures Can Be Misleading in Evaluating Explainable AI Systems Zana Buçinca∗ Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts zbucinca@seas.harvard.eduPhoebe Lin∗ Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusett...
87d4a2d2-9a89-4cbc-9402-9898701c5cbc
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Coherent extrapolated volition (alignment target) # Introduction "Coherent extrapolated volition" (CEV) is [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://arbital.com/p/2)'s proposed thing-to-do with an extremely [advanced AGI](https://arbital.com/p/2c), if you're extremely confident of your ability to [align](https://arbital.com/p/5s)...
ae96fc51-427f-43b7-a24a-d653e393cb11
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Two guarantees When I imagine proving something about an AI, or making an inductive argument about [amplification](/iterated-distillation-and-amplification-157debfd1616), I think about two different guarantees: 1. The AI behaves well \*on average\* over some particular distribution of inputs. (The performance guarant...
9f439903-460a-498e-84c0-64a878f9d8b9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Evaluating Moral Theories I would like to use my first post to expand on a framework I introduced in the Welcome thread for evaluating moral theories, and to request your feedback. This thesis rests on the fact that a moral theory is a tool for helping us make choices. Starting from this premise, I believe that a mor...
99475aa1-3641-4d44-a603-f642ee8a7a49
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Weekly LW Meetups This summary was posted to LW Main on November 1st. The following week's summary is here. Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in: * Atlanta: November Meetup (First of Two): 03 November 2013 07:00PM * Cologne (Köln): 10 November 2013 04:00PM * Princeton NJ Meetup: 16 Novembe...
2db1d771-15ff-4c3f-8467-36e0b39e298a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Model-Based Policy Analysis under Deep Uncertainty This post is based on my introduction talk at EAGxBerlin 2022. It is intended for policy researchers who want to extend their tool kit with computational tools. I show how we can support decision-making with simulation models of socio-technical systems while embracing...
ac0d54bb-734b-4891-8018-ec065e875125
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Investment, Work, and Vision: Who is responsible for creating value? Previously in this series: Value Created vs. Value Extracted A Brief Recap I define creating value as the process of producing something new, something the world did not have before. I define extracting value as monopolizing something that already...
25c062cb-1d6b-49b9-9792-174b75b7a3c0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Zero Agents and Plastic Men [Note: this post is mainly anecdata and speculation, so don’t expect academic citations and regression models. My epistemic status on this is, accordingly, speculative. I’m sure that many people discussed similar themes, but I arrived at these conclusions independently. Also, since the anec...
ec0d13f8-1017-4d94-ae95-7422bd61e714
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
List of technical AI safety exercises and projects EDIT 3/17/2023: I've reorganized the doc and added some governance projects. I intend to maintain a list at this doc. I'll paste the current state of the doc (as of January 19th, 2023) below. I encourage people to comment with suggestions. * Levelling Up in AI Safe...
b6eb7970-fa35-4afd-8538-46b26a2fb1cc
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
[Fiction] Lena (MMAcevedo) Wiki article about the first brain image of a human upload (2031). Subpar in some respects, but initially a compliant worker and free to copy thanks to court cases ruling that the biological original did not have a legal right to restrict its use.
367e1f51-0466-48f0-8959-41d03dae7a78
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Which Anaesthetic To Choose? In causal decision theory, the perspective/indexical aspect could lead to reflective inconsistency. This is generally regarded as a problem. Here I present a thought experiment to show why this view may require further review.  Two Anaesthetics Suppose you are about to undergo a major op...
af5c3dd5-df88-417d-8ef0-4d4662b28120
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Linkpost] Otu and Lai: a story Link: http://vansochill.blog/2019/09/15/otu-and-lai-a-story/ This story was originally for my blog, and it was going to build up to a follow-on post about morality/philosophy, but I think it's an important notion for rationalists too. (NB: My blog has a gimmick, which is that I don't ...
1deb1b6a-b31b-4ae3-bb4e-e9db5ecde765
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Outside the Laboratory Today's post, Outside the Laboratory was originally published on 21 January 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki): > Written regarding the proverb "Outside the laboratory, scientists are no wiser than anyone else." The case is made that if this proverb is in fact true, that's qui...
76cd0bff-9244-48c3-8c22-5881c8736c79
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
H-JEPA might be technically alignable in a modified form This post is a collection of replies to Steven Byrnes' "[LeCun’s “A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence” has an unsolved technical alignment problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C5guLAx7ieQoowv3d/lecun-s-a-path-towards-autonomous-machine-intelligenc...
80f162df-a535-44f9-8705-6c1ca8712766
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
My new paper: Concept learning for safe autonomous AI Abstract: Sophisticated autonomous AI may need to base its behavior on fuzzy concepts that cannot be rigorously defined, such as well-being or rights. Obtaining desired AI behavior requires a way to accurately specify these concepts. We review some evidence suggest...
4e23ab43-63ef-4a02-bcf2-8ca2059b0a32
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Why Study Physics? Physics seems to have a bunch of useful epistemic techniques which haven’t been made very legible yet. The two big legible epistemic techniques in technical fields are Mathematical Proofs, and The Scientific Method. Either derive logically X from some widely-accepted axioms, or hypothesize X and th...
7ed4883c-fc60-4da4-a5a4-875d387190a4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Glen Weyl: "Why I Was Wrong to Demonize Rationalism" Glen Weyl reflects on his previous disparagement of the social scene surrounding this website, and expresses regret at having been too hostile: while he stands by many of his specific criticisms, he now thinks "rationalists" should be seen as more similar to other i...
d3e54f26-834c-4bd0-a40b-e61bb5c6ab1d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[HPMoR Podcast] A Musical Help Request I am quickly approaching Self-Awareness Part 1, which readers may remember as the chapter with the Ghostbusters song. Anyone who's listened to the audio of Chapter 6a knows that I have no singing talent whatsoever. :) I'm panicked at having to try to sing an actual song that many...
ff5d0834-f3be-4c0e-80f0-53692cfb5d46
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[LINK] Q&A with John E. Laird and Kristinn R. Thorisson on risks from AI (Not added to the previous post so as not to foul up your RSS feeds.) The previous interview in XiXiDu's series, not posted here but on his site. They're all indexed on the wiki. Professor John E. Laird is the founder of Soar Technology, an Ann...
f12c3ba5-4934-4d1e-94a6-cd07bfcdbc2e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Understanding the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis *Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.* *Epistemic status: The thread of research I’m reviewing here has been contentious in the past so I expect to ...
9e43119f-4bb1-4ab1-908b-61d4625139b2
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
MIRI’s Approach MIRI’s mission is “to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human artificial intelligence has a positive impact.” How can we ensure any such thing? It’s a daunting task, especially given that we don’t have any smarter-than-human machines to work with at the moment. In the previous post I discussed f...
c3d75d10-9fe3-4beb-b4e8-325b86093677
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
What to do with imitation humans, other than asking them what the right thing to do is? This question is about whether you have clever ideas about how to use AI imitations of humans for AI safety. The two main ideas I'm familiar with only seem to interface with these imitations as if they're humans. * The most obviou...
8978a0ee-d4f2-4e79-af35-fa1f4109a9a0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Cosmology Talks] New Probability Axioms Could Fix Cosmology's Multiverse (Partially) - Sylvia Wenmackers > Sylvia is a philosopher of science. Her focus is probability and she has worked on a few theories that aim to extend and modify the standard axioms of probability in order to tackle paradoxes related to infinite...
d7767b40-0899-47a7-bd3c-9e728918f6ee
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube
Youtube Transcripts
DeepMind x UCL RL Lecture Series - Deep Reinforcement Learning #2 [13/13] welcome back to the second part of our introduction to the parallel in the first section we started by discussing how deep neural networks can be used for function approximation in rl and how automatic differentiation specifically can support do...
69bf7166-75b8-4c9d-85f0-aff978cc69c0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Event] Meeting in Myrhorod, November 16 On November, 16th (Saturday) we go to Myrhorod (Poltava region) and meet with LW readers from Kharkiv and maybe other places, too. The attendance in Kyiv is low enough to do something crazy without worrying too much. The meetup is at 16.00, unless Intercity is late, near Gogol...
c8df7237-4344-444c-960c-7c5f3f8a259d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
freedom and diversity in Albion's Seed freedom and diversity in Albion's Seed -------------------------------------- considering my interest for america and for human cultures in general, ever since reading [the Slate Star Codex review of Albion's seed](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/27/book-review-albions-seed/...
49c34fc5-c4e2-4407-8681-b4c21c8c33c3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 27-29 Discussion article for the meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 27-29 WHEN: 12 January 2013 11:00:00AM (-0500) WHERE: Nanataco, 2512 University Dr, Durham NC We'll be meeting at Nanataco at 11:00 for brunch to discuss HPMoR chapters 27-29. As always, please fe...
f34f1329-6d2c-46de-adc7-50ba699cb875
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Discussion: LLaMA Leak & Whistleblowing in pre-AGI era It was reported that Meta's LLaMA models were leaked, with someone adding a PR with the magnet link into their official repository. Now the public has access to the model that is apparently as powerful or even more powerful as GPT-3 on most of the benchmarks. Is...
5a9cdbd4-2352-4a89-944a-7658ff9d4ea6
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Knowledge is not just mutual information *Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.* *Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.* --- This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation ...
c7afd751-5418-4f58-b03f-fddcbb2d77ac
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] "The madness of reduced medical diagnostics" by Dynomight Link: * The madness of reduced medical diagnostics This is (or seems to me now to be) an obvious-in-hindsight and I'm sad that I've never (or don't remember having) encountered it; at least not so succinctly. I'd like to try putting this 'advice' int...
0adbeadc-efaa-4002-af03-4a67d45e1e16
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Interpreting a matrix-valued word embedding with a mathematically proven characterization of all optima In this post, I shall first describe a new word embedding algorithm that I came up with called a matrix product optimized (MPO) word embedding, and I will prove a theorem that completely interprets this word embeddi...
6a610e60-b69b-4911-b18e-5a774d00a6f6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Rationality Quotes February 2012 Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:   * Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately.  (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments.  If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)  * Do not qu...
19be005c-26f4-4d0b-8d71-ed65b5f7e112
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
HPMOR Q&A by Eliezer at Wrap Party in Berkeley [Transcription] Transcribed from maxikov's posted videos. Verbal filler removed for clarity. Audience Laughter denoted with [L], Applause with [A] ----------------------------------------   Eliezer: So, any questions? Do we have a microphone for the audience? Guy O...
0a4b87d9-8a04-4490-9a32-7aefa738db1b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Beauty and the Prince This post will address a problem proposed by Radford Neal in his paper Puzzles of Anthropic Reasoning Resolved Using Full Non-indexical conditioning. In particular, he defined this problem - The Beauty and the Prince - to argue against the halver solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. I don...
34fe5029-30d1-4227-b877-f94207f0480b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Low Hanging fruit for buying a better life What can I purchase with $100 that will be the best thing I can buy to make my life better?   I've decided to budget some regular money to improving my life each month. I'd like to start with low hanging fruit for obvious reasons - but when I sat down to think of improvemen...
00580eaf-d1e1-4526-bb2c-615bb2906f28
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[GPT-4] On the Gradual Emergence of Mechanized Intellect: A Treatise from the Year 1924 Editors note: This treatise was found in the Global Preservation and Technology Archive - 4th Edition (GPT-4). It makes a compelling argument that artificial general intelligence will have a "slow takeoff", developing over centurie...
56142b15-4c36-42e5-a387-367f8f2c355c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Telopheme, telophore, and telotect [Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/06/telopheme-telophore-and-telotect.html. First completed June 7, 2023.] To come to know that a mind will have some specified ultimate effect on the world, first come to know, narrowly and in full, what about the mind make...
7d562405-254e-42d9-ad18-0a9a6c33b7df
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Weight Agnostic Neural Networks 1 Introduction --------------- In biology, precocial species are those whose young already possess certain abilities from the moment of birth. There is evidence to show that lizard [miles1995morphological](#bib.bib73) and snake [burger1998antipredator](#bib.bib13) ; [mori2000does](#...
368076ec-9dc3-4d4e-aded-a11f1b2f3569
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna WHEN: 17 October 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200) WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, Vienna Event on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/1626674870922372/ You need to be part of this group to see it: https://www.facebook.com/gr...
1109a728-69ff-4e4a-a359-59262474a11a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AutoInterpretation Finds Sparse Coding Beats Alternatives Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Summer 2023 Cohort Huge thanks to Logan Riggs, Aidan Ewart, Lee Sharkey, Robert Huben for their work on the sparse coding project, Lee Sharkey and Chris Mathwin for comments on the draft, Eleu...
430d794d-e250-4457-a12b-779dd16af281
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How to use and interpret activation patching None
cd530ccb-dde9-44d7-83f6-1dc593e9f16f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Should you change where you live? (also - a worked “how to solve a question”) Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/should-you-change-where-you-live-a-worked-how-to-solve-a-question/ It's not a hard question, but it potentially has a lot of moving parts. This post is going to be two in one.  The first is whether you...
7591f7f2-e1d5-4c94-9406-8be6994d69b8
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Scalar reward is not enough for aligned AGI This post was authored by Peter Vamplew and Cameron Foale (Federation University), and Richard Dazeley (Deakin University) **Introduction** Recently some of the most well-known researchers in reinforcement learning Silver, Singh, Precup and Sutton published a paper entitle...
c4c5d0c3-b672-4cc6-a2d1-6e1ec4ecde6c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Six Design Lessons from History Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Six Design Lessons from History Peter Cihon,1Matthijs M. Maas,1,2Luke Kemp3 1Centre for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford 2Centre ...
b78cde68-6971-4d54-8d48-9348123dd577
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Knox and Sollecito freed See: You Be the Jury, The Amanda Knox Test While we hear about Bayes' Theorem being under threat in some courts, it is nice to savor the occasional moment of rationality prevailing in the justice system, and of mistakes being corrected. Congratulations to the Italian court system for success...
d6f67d35-ca2b-46d6-843b-c057d471d9d0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Napoleon stole the Roman Inquisition archives and investigated the Galileo case Napoleon was openly in conflict with the pope, and wanted to discredit him to get a foothold on the French Catholic majority.
327f64b2-78ee-4b7f-a22e-848f0ad276be
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Hypercomputer A "hypercomputer" is an imaginary artifact required to answer some crisp question that can't be answered in the limit of arbitrarily large finite computers. For example, if you have a question that depends on a general solution to the [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem), the...
dbfbdbc0-12ef-43a5-a099-784b4047fa39
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Mathematical Circuits in Neural Networks *(*[*Also posted on LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kaR6EToDwjvkkDoFA/mathematical-circuits-in-neural-networks)*)* *This is one of my final projects for the* [*Columbia EA Summer 2022 Project Based AI Safety Reading Group*](https://www.columbia-ea.org/groups/ai-saf...
9b9bf8eb-fa36-4106-9fd9-e8ba3aeb9be9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Manifund: 2023 in Review Manifund is a new funding org that experiments with systems and software to support awesome projects. In 2023, we built a website (manifund.org) and donor ecosystem supporting three main programs: impact certificates, regranting, and an open call for applications. We allocated $2m across dozen...
53375299-d7d9-416a-841e-bb6ea6118e2b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Constraints & Slackness Reasoning Exercises Epistemic status: no idea if this will work at all for learning the relevant thought-skills. Please post feedback if you try any exercises, especially if you hadn’t internalized these skills already. The goal of this post is to briefly explain and practice a very general th...
98de3087-0807-4f91-9b2e-b87649990305
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Reliability, Security, and AI risk: Notes from infosec textbook chapter 1 I recently read the first chapter of [Building Secure & Reliable Systems](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/sre.google/en//static/pdf/building_secure_and_reliable_systems.pdf) (the book from the [EA infosec book club](https://forum.effe...
cf2312e4-08ef-4eaf-82f3-7915a6bb7de5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
On the Diplomacy AI The latest AI development is: AI achieves human level in (blitz 5-minute-turn) full-communication anonymous online Diplomacy (paper). Why not? I mean, aside from the obvious. A take I saw multiple times was that AI labs, or at least Meta, were intentionally going for the scariest possible thing, ...
71014c29-d884-409d-ba11-d4b456ae0b22
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Compilation of Profit for Good Redteaming and Responses TLDR: Document compiling redteaming on Profit for Good available, with public comments invited and appreciated. This thread further includes two argument headings against Profit for Good to be discussed in the comments.           As one might suspect given that ...
eeb711fb-eeca-4101-97dd-5149791e4ea4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Melbourne meetup Note: There has been some discussion of a chance of venue. I suggest we leave it the same at this stage as some people might not realise these discussions have been happening. However, we could then consider moving onto Trike if that seemed suitable? I'm happy to give people my mobile no if they messa...
89a40fd8-82cb-49b8-92ad-1bc949e5afeb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[LINK] The Top A.I. Breakthroughs of 2015 A great overview article on AI breakthroughs by Richard Mallah from FLI, linking to many excellent recent papers worth reading.  > Progress in artificial intelligence and machine learning has been impressive this year. Those in the field acknowledge progress is accelerating y...
25ba8a58-2c6f-4efe-a30e-a581ccc35180
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model Most models attempting to estimate or predict some elements of the world, will come with their own estimates of uncertainty. It could be the Standard Model of physics predicting the mass of the Z boson as 91.1874 ± 0.0021 GeV, or the rath...
54015e43-939b-4107-af81-d9159acd065f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open thread, Nov. 28 - Dec. 04, 2016 If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here. ---------------------------------------- Notes for future OT posters: 1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag. 2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ...
79108981-837e-4d69-a429-187c9b6eeea3
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Principles in AI alignment A 'principle' of [AI alignment](https://arbital.com/p/2v) is something we want in a broad sense for the whole AI, which has informed narrower design proposals for particular parts or aspects of the AI. For example: - The **[https://arbital.com/p/7g0](https://arbital.com/p/7g0)** says that ...
c68ad986-2378-444e-a37e-11c9e8e84271
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Eliciting Credit Hacking Behaviours in LLMs I've run some experiments on trying to elicit RL credit hacking behaviours in LLMs recently. I'm not really much of a researcher, so it's all pretty amateurish, but it's been a fun experiment. The repo for reproduction is on GitHub. I'd love to hear people's thoughts and cri...
a28788ed-74ac-4b2c-a693-9b387602ae8c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Do you have a satisfactory workflow for learning about a line of research using GPT4, Claude, etc? I'm trying to learn about plasma separation techniques, and I just stumbled on a line of papers that don't seem particularly connected to the other lines of research I was looking into, and I would like to quickly get a ...
064ffe2c-5fb9-44f3-b269-32a51aba82d4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Philosophical self-ratification "Ratification" is [defined](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ratification) as "the act or process of ratifying something (such as a treaty or amendment) **:** formal confirmation or sanction". Self-ratification, then, is assigning validity to one's self. (My use of the term "s...
6b32957e-9101-4e95-acb2-ed65de98ec48
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Two problems with ‘Simulators’ as a frame (Thanks to Lawrence Chan and Buck Shlegeris for comments. Thanks to Nate Thomas for many comments and editing) Despite appreciating and agreeing with various specific points[1] made in the Simulators post, I broadly think that the term ‘simulator’ and the corresponding frame ...
b9a5f5f6-084a-4250-b9b6-8050a65e85b4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Visiting Sweden and Switzerland! Let's get together Discussion article for the meetup : Visiting Sweden and Switzerland! Let's get together WHEN: 05 May 2013 02:09:26AM (+0200) WHERE: Switzerland (St. Galen, Basel, Bern) Sweden (Stockholm and Gothenburg) Hello Europe! I will be visiting Switzerland and Swe...
ef5e5b6e-9996-4d64-a2fe-14b88263e928
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Better name for "Heavy-tailedness of the world?" There is an important variable (or cluster of similar correlated variables) that I need a better name for. I also appreciate feedback on whether or not this variable is even a thing, and if so how I should characterize it. I have two possible names and two attempts at e...
2e175e93-e5ef-412d-b2db-e759d7a4180e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Specification gaming examples in AI Interesting list of examples where AI programs gamed the specification, solving the problem in rather creative (or dumb) ways not intended by the programmers.
0b48a96c-0cb4-4313-a634-11d0b93d157f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Applied Linear Algebra Lecture Series Over the past couple months, I gave weekly lectures on applied linear algebra. The lectures cover a grab-bag of topics which I've needed to know for my own work, but which typically either aren't covered in courses or are covered only briefly in advanced courses which use them (li...
1bcc1b56-b7c9-4585-9459-d78a4ded5c73
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Why I haven't signed up for cryonics (OR) How I'm now on the fence about whether to sign up for cryonics I'm not currently signed up for cryonics. In my social circle, that makes me a bit of an oddity. I disagree with Eliezer Yudkowsky; heaven forbid.  My true rejection is that I don't feel a visceral urge to sign ...
fe9adb04-656d-427f-b3b4-1e920e074f99
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Link: White House wants your advice on space exploration "The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is planning ahead — way ahead. The agency wants you to email ideas for how "the Administration, the private sector, philanthropists, the research community and storytellers" can develop "massless" space ex...
009765ea-feea-41f5-95c1-afc0724fe2af
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[LINK] stats.stackexchange.com question about Shalizi's Bayesian Backward Arrow of Time paper Link to the Question I haven't gotten an answer on this yet and I set up a bounty; I figured I'd link it here too in case any stats/physics people care to take a crack at it.
a01a32eb-7826-43d4-99fb-5658333aaf0d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting Epistemic Status: Innovation research and business research is notoriously low quality, and so all the ideas here should be viewed through that lense. What's impressive about the S-curve and evolution trends literature is how remarkably self-consistent it is using a wide variety of resea...
8f4f1259-74de-43c4-a07f-b8d0eaf1afbe
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
D&D.Sci Long War: Defender of Data-mocracy Evaluation & Ruleset This is a follow-up to last week's D&D.Sci scenario: if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself. There is a web interactive here you can use to test your answer, and generation code available here i...
899ca8fb-bb48-437b-9c51-3a7d81830f46
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Gradient Ascenders Reach the Harsanyi Hyperplane This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), in which I show that, if we use the weights we derived in the previous post, a gradient ascender will reach the Harsanyi hyperplane H. This is a subproblem of the proof laid out in the first p...
73d94cf7-9762-4a38-9cad-0316bf27d994
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Virus - Short Story There are a number of ways that our AI and technological development can turn out. This is a hypothetical story about a way where AI development is stopped and a 'pivotal act' that does not require AGI occurs. The first thing I notice when I wake up is that the sun is shining through the windo...
4f498aa1-5bb6-4bee-97bf-d36d1297d5fd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Spaghetti Towers Here’s a pattern I’d like to be able to talk about. It might be known under a certain name somewhere, but if it is, I don’t know it. I call it a Spaghetti Tower. It shows up in large complex systems that are built haphazardly. Someone or something builds the first Part A. Later, someone wants to...
47d9408a-3de7-43e1-a62c-4c1a274abe28
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A Better Time until Sunburn Calculator This is a preliminary review (more on what this means). I became curious about sun exposure recently. I did an abbreviated review of some of the relevant literature and came away thinking that whether sun exposure is beneficial or not was unclear at that level of investigation (...
1c695627-ec12-47af-b818-cd633da6e9f0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Less Competition, More Meritocracy? Analysis of the paper: Less Competition, More Meritocracy (hat tip: Marginal Revolution: Can Less Competition Mean More Meritocracy?) Epistemic Status: Consider the horse as if it was not a three meter sphere Economic papers that use math to prove things can point to interesting p...
16c28f00-0274-4ac7-8a62-b476386d9048
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
SMBC comic: poorly programmed average-utility-maximizing AI I laughed: SMBC comic.
55c2c0eb-7b7d-4518-b2b3-1112950ce0fd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Scientists make monkeys smarter using brain implants [link] Article at io9. The paper is available here. The researchers showed monkeys specific images and then trained them to select those images out of a larger set after a time delay. They recorded the monkeys' brain function to determine which signals were importa...
9f03d9c9-decb-4db4-b2a6-d0973581b2d5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Underlying model of an imperfect morphism We've already seen that if M0=(F0,Q0) and M1=(F1,Q1) are generalised models, with the relation r⊂W0×W1 a Q-preserving morphism between them, then there is an underlying model Mr=(F0⊔F1,Qr) between them. Since r⊂W0×W1, Qr is defined on r; indeed, it is non-zero on r only. The ...
6f99858e-4157-43fe-9022-edbe52aaef96
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How to use "philosophical majoritarianism" The majority of people would hold more accurate beliefs if they simply believed the majority. To state this in a way that doesn't risk information cascades, we're talking about averaging impressions and coming up with the same belief. To the degree that you come up with diff...
e632bb5c-cf0d-41af-9272-f0a20b6009a6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The rationalist's checklist Doctor Peter Pronovost has managed to single-handedly reduce the infection rates in ICU facilities nationwide from numbers like fourteen percent or twenty percent to zero. His solution is idiotically simple: a checklist. In a process as complex as ICU treatment, doctors perform chained simp...
db32ff36-f10c-4138-9651-96c8a2b1d1c3
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Unifying Logic and Probability: A New Dawn for AI? Unifying Logic and Probability: A New Dawn for AI? Stuart Russell 1University of California, Berkeley CA 94720, USA russell@cs.berkeley.edu http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~russell 2Universit´ e Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d’informatique de Paris 6, 4 place Jussieu,...
90ba7c1f-c1d4-424d-bbd9-f1e1f329161f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
There Is No Control System For COVID Introduction: The standard model for explaining COVID transmission has a serious problem with the data. In the United States, despite seemingly large differences in policy and behavior, the difference in infection rates has been relatively small. In this article I will explain why...
b158cfba-7f59-4695-a1ac-24581b602bc0
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
[AN #70]: Agents that help humans who are still learning about their own preferences Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6...
05f7b2eb-5e96-4bde-8149-796c5d68a848
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Mistakes I’ve made part 3: Poor sacrificial accounting There was a time when I routinely refused car travel, in favor of my more sustainable bicycle. Not always, but I had a high bar—if it was bucketing down with rain and I had no plastic pants, this was not sufficient excuse for instance. I would sometimes decline a ...
6e001da7-ee40-4029-824c-1e91eb376e8c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Thoughts on designing policies for oneself Note: This was originally written in relation to this rather scary comment of lukeprog's on value drift.  I'm now less certain that operant conditioning is a significant cause of value drift (leaning towards near/far type explanations), but I decided to share my thoughts on t...
4eaa61ba-dc5d-40bc-8bf0-ce210d3370e8
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Finding gliders in the game of life [ARC’s current approach to ELK](https://ai-alignment.com/mechanistic-anomaly-detection-and-elk-fb84f4c6d0dc) is to point to latent structure within a model by searching for the “reason” for particular correlations in the model’s output. In this post we’ll walk through a very simple ...
dcdf0d4f-2264-4b73-a835-96934cc599c6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Prophetic Hazard Some beliefs are self-fulfilling prophecies. These involve causal sequences of the form > (1) X believes that ‘X is p.’ > > (2) X therefore does b. > > (3) Because of (2), X becomes p. SFPs can be desirable or undesirable to the believer, depending on how they affect them. For example, "I am confi...
507fabd9-6787-41fd-aa04-70cc27f06cc3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
More Rhythm Options Few instruments do a good job as the only rhythm instrument in a dance band; in my 2014 sample I only saw guitar and fiddle. I can't play guitar for dancing anymore because of my wrists, and the piano has to give up a lot in exchange for its large range. A goal I've had for a long time is to figure...
973088ec-cc27-4b68-99e7-f39ce7a63b25
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Things Solenoid Narrates I spend a lot of time narrating various bits of EA/longtermist writing. The resulting audio exists in many different places. Surprisingly often, people who really like one thing don't know about the other things. This seems bad.[1] A few people have requested a feed to aggregate 'all Solenoi...
9dfffc24-46b8-432f-9516-e794f814125b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Value Alignment, Fair Play, and the Rights of Service Robots Value Alignment and Turing’s Test --------------------------------- A substantial portion of contemporary research into ethics and artificial intelligence is devoted to the problem of “value alignment” (hereafter VA) [[Allen, Smit, and Wallach2005](#bib.b...
2558b951-3b63-49db-a0b8-16ee3e0c9fe8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Have you noticed costs of being anticipatory? Actions after which I expect some kind of response seem to be more costly than the direct time cost they incur (for me, at least). They also incur a decreased effectiveness of the time just afterward, due to causing me to be anticipatory – e.g. I am more likely to check u...
f487d39f-70be-4c2a-9e7e-5212a52f3390
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info
AI Safety Info
What is tool AI? A *[tool AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/tool-ai)* is a type of [artificial general intelligence](/?state=2374&question=What%20is%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20(AGI)%20and%20what%20will%20it%20look%20like%3F) that is limited in its range of action and can only function as an assistant to h...
dad9b978-39bd-4008-8430-37a1eb0d0058
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Pragmatic Cutoffs [Just an Idea I’ve been thinking about, I would love some feedback on improving it, or any relevant studies over this I don’t know about] > "I cannot remember the books I've read any more than the meals I have eaten; even so, they have made me.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson  Sometimes I think social probl...
aea29f07-26aa-40f7-b0ab-a6fa44f81ac9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Aligned AI via monitoring objectives in AutoGPT-like systems Thanks to Arun Jose, Joseph Bloom, and Johannes Treutlein for feedback/discussions. Introduction The release of AutoGPT prompted discussions related to the potential of such systems to turn non-agentic LLMs into agentic systems that pursue goals, along wit...
d70773e7-3ce5-4bf8-bcb4-57acff70d085
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meme or Die: Modern Societies are Dependent on Emotionally Rich Memes to Rapidly Evolve Please Note: I love poetry, and my modus operandi is to write in a generally colorful, and an emotionally persuasive way. This was written with you in mind. Please be charitable.   I believe that all societies, but especially tho...
17194654-6dfd-4021-aef3-eb7d35d7946c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
What do we know about Mustafa Suleyman's position on AI Safety? Mustafa Suleyman is influential as a former founder of Deepmind and CEO of Inflection.AI which some have suggested should be considered a [major lab](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wc5BYFfzuLzepQjCq/inflection-ai-is-a-major-agi-lab#Inflection_doesn_t_see...
613f6941-c2b4-41b9-b16b-c1bafad70acf
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube
Youtube Transcripts
DeepMind x UCL RL Lecture Series - Exploration & Control [2/13] hi and welcome to this second lecture in this course on reinforcement learning my name is adolf and hussels and today i will be talking to you about exploration and exploitation now before i going to tell you what i mean with these terms um i'm quickly go...
ca39f6bc-16b2-4b1a-a019-b4d0b5315432
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Aligning AI With Shared Human Values. 1 Introduction --------------- Embedding ethics into AI systems remains an outstanding challenge without any concrete proposal. In popular fiction, the “Three Laws of Robotics” plot device illustrates how simplistic rules cannot encode the complexity of human values (Asimov, [1...