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58191018-e08d-4abf-85c8-83bd68ba0767
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Poll Results on AGI The poll has now settled quite a bit. I have been a bit busy and so it took me a bit longer than expected to write this up – but without further ado let us look at some of the results. Over the past month 74 people voted, 70 people were grouped, and 2,095 votes were cast, with 55 statements submitt...
d6146ac4-d650-41c7-9601-ff7ded367dce
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Laws of Magic > People are always telling you that "we have always done thus", and then you find that their "always" means a generation or two, or a century or two, at most a millennium or two.  Cultural ways and habits are blips compared to the ways and habits of the body, of the race.  There really is very littl...
bc7638f7-cf6a-4f7f-a64d-0f8a19bd3121
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
LW Migration Announcement The votes are in, and of the eligible 376 voters, 102 voted to Migrate and 15 voted to archive. With 87% in favor, we’re going ahead with the transition, which will begin tomorrow (3/22) at 6pm Pacific time. Trike will take a snapshot of the database, transfer it to us, and we’ll begin the da...
bd03bfcd-097f-4c84-9dab-5f7a23942e58
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Building Trust in Strategic Settings In the previous post, we saw some different types of claims that we might want software systems to automatically evaluate. Ideally, we'd like our software systems to incorporate accurate and useful information, and disregard inaccurate or irrelevant information.  In this post, I'l...
3450e7bf-4e00-4820-9d2c-3b7431e1c234
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Bratislava Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava WHEN: 29 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200) WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Mariánska 3, Bratislava Pre tých, čo chvíľu nechodili: Bistro the Peach sa asi pred dvoma mesiacmi presunulo o ulicu ďalej, a možno stále nie je poriadne označené, ale je to oproti ...
6f57eeb0-e922-4944-9117-7fc7d6ad0da1
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
state of my alignment research, and what needs work state of my alignment research, and what needs work --------------------------------------------------- in this post i give an overview of the state of my [AI alignment](ai-doom.html) research, as well as what i think needs to be worked on, notably for people who m...
cd2dab83-b1a8-44c4-a697-3a131b94dd6a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
It's ok I probably shouldn't be ranting out my thoughts here. but I really want to get these thoughts out of my head and I'm hopeful no one will come across this random piece. Have you ever felt obsessed with something you're building? I did - my last 2 years in college. It's an amazing feeling. It's like riding the ...
5bbc3b1d-5e76-4fbd-9c08-bc0528c16798
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A Gym Gridworld Environment for the Treacherous Turn EDIT: posted here for feedback and discussion. I plan to continue working on different models/environments, so feel free to suggest improvements. (tl;dr: In an attempt to better understand the treacherous turn, I created a gridworld environment where an agent lear...
4b823515-7a17-4be5-a0cb-3fa769be424d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Anti-Pascaline agent A putative new idea for AI control; index here. Pascal's wager-like situations come up occasionally with expected utility, making some decisions very tricky. It means that events of the tiniest of probability could dominate the whole decision - intuitively unobvious, and a big negative for a boun...
eeacf7db-c057-4cc8-8983-bbf4ece094dd
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Do-What-I-Mean hierarchy Do-What-I-Mean refers to an aligned AGI's ability to produce better-aligned plans, based on an explicit model of what the user wants or believes. Successive levels of DWIM-ness: - No understanding of human intentions / zero DWIMness. E.g. a Task AGI that is focused on one task being commun...
d5bdbb46-3944-4824-b294-aed2582e0565
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Interesting discussion of concentration and productivity [link] http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2013/02/04/four-hours-of-concentration/ And since this is the Internet, and facts are involved, our gwern turns up there also.
3656467a-1792-4a45-b6d7-adf6d4b12fce
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info
AI Safety Info
What is "transformative AI"? **Transformative AI** is "\[...\] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."[^hy8b4kflu8] The concept refers to the large effects of AI systems on our well-being, the global economy, state power, international secu...
7e469272-7399-4619-913a-0e4a65f5d0c7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How to Find a Problem There are many ingredients for creativity. One is to have a lot of knowledge saved up, so it can combined in novel ways. One is to actually think about things for five minutes. One is to not flinch away from problems when you find them. But the most important is to have a problem to solve. Or if...
4fa428e9-c05a-4e0b-a47d-3ffe795c22ee
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Results of LW Technical Background Survey See results here. The main goal of the survey was to provide info for authors about their target audience, so here's a high-level overview toward that end: * The average respondent is some kind of professional programmer, with an undergrad degree (or equivalent) in CS. * M...
2616c899-aaa8-4728-ad94-01424382e9d7
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"My deconversion from Christianity had a large positive impact on my life. I suspect it had a small positive impact on the world, too. (For example, I no longer condemn gays or waste time and money on a relationship with an imaginary friend.) And my deconversion did not happen because I came to understand the Bayesian ...
88fe198e-ed88-45a0-913a-bbcdb405c9c5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Madison Discussion article for the meetup : Madison WHEN: 02 August 2011 06:00:00PM (-0500) WHERE: 1225 Regent St. Madison, WI With the intent of being the first of many regular meetups, let's get together on Tuesday. I plan to conduct a few exercises on brainstorming, including the "alternatives procedure...
f9b99de0-053b-4a4f-859b-a458a84d04a3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Disentangling inner alignment failures TL;DR: This is an attempt to disentangle some concepts that I used to conflate too much as just "inner alignment". This will be old news to some, but might be helpful for people who feel confused about how deception, distributional shift, and "sharp left turns" are related. I fir...
39a98cca-5809-44ec-ba2a-8d7347eea691
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Towards learning incomplete models using inner prediction markets This post is a short informal summary of a new idea I'm starting to work on, which combines my thinking abouts "incomplete models" with Scott's logical inductors. Motivation Before, I speculated that generalizing Bayesian inference to include incomple...
28484141-d88c-413d-9254-7259591ba63a
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Anti-'FOOM' (stop trying to make your cute pet name the thing) *Notes/basis:* This is kind of a short-form post in style but I think it's important enough to put here. Obviously let me know if someone else said this better Summary ------- Formal overly-intellectual academese is bad. But using your 'cute' inside jo...
f0555357-9727-4b25-932b-7cd8ea473915
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Response to “Coordinated pausing: An evaluation-based coordination scheme for frontier AI developers” ![Watercolour image of a frontier AI lab, bathed in warm sunlight. People are working together to discuss pausing of frontier AI research](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirrore...
320eb546-9b83-4eb2-91e2-d0f3e31e26eb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Somerville Porchfest Thoughts This Saturday was Porchfest in Somerville, an annual festival where musicians around the city play on their porches and people wander around listening. As in the past few years Cecilia and I ( Kingfisher) played for contra dancing: Harris Lapiroff called: If anyone has pictures o...
febe03b1-8402-42b8-bbac-f546f9d40943
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Three of my beliefs about upcoming AGI [Epistemic Status: Semi-informed conjecture. Feedback is welcome.] At EAG last month, I got the advice to develop my own mental model of what general/transformative/superintelligent AI will look like when it gets here, and where I think the risks lie. This week I’ll be writing ...
372b44d9-141f-49b2-a131-7bb6604a1b8b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Am I obligated to reread the Book of Mormon? In this comment thread, I stated that > I have read the Book of Mormon in the past, but I hereby precommit to reading it again and "searching in my heart" (I have a copy on my bookshelf) if you can demonstrate that my skepticism regarding your evidence is unwarranted. In ...
c7cee79e-a2c5-40d1-b8d8-42634a0eba19
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Your intuitions are not magic People who know a little bit of statistics - enough to use statistical techniques, not enough to understand why or how they work - often end up horribly misusing them. Statistical tests are complicated mathematical techniques, and to work, they tend to make numerous assumptions. The probl...
04f8e6a0-7c60-4c5e-b4c4-432aff415cd2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] Tetlock on the power of precise predictions to counter political polarization The prediction expert Philip Tetlock writes in New York Times on the power of precise predictions to counter political polarization. Note the similarity to Robin Hanson's futarchy idea. > IS there a solution to this country’s polariz...
141df73a-a7c4-47b4-b9ea-62580c09b899
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Alan Kay - Programming and Scaling (Republishing the comment linked by Said Achmiz below.) What Is This Talk About This talk is about several things. Software ‘Engineering’ - For the amount of functionality we get out of systems, we seem to have to write a lot of code. Alan Kay tries to give the viewer a sense of t...
6fddea43-b1b5-494d-9653-207962433149
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
On motivations for MIRI's highly reliable agent design research (this post came out of a conversation between me and Owen Cotton-Barratt, plus a follow-up conversation with Nate) I want to clarify my understanding of some of the motivations of MIRI's highly reliable agent design (HRAD) research (e.g. logical uncertai...
01e9bd98-bc58-464c-9d40-ce066a1d6fd4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Objections to Coherent Extrapolated Volition > In poetic terms, our coherent extrapolated volition is our wish if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, had grown up farther together; where the extrapolation converges rather than diverges, where our wishes cohere rather than interfere; e...
0aa6da47-238d-4966-b1f3-c52df7f958ad
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
two puzzles on rationality of defeat I present here two puzzles of rationality you LessWrongers may think is worth to deal with. Maybe the first one looks more amenable to a simple solution, while the second one has called attention of a number of contemporary epistemologists (Cargile, Feldman, Harman), and does not ...
db7de5ef-a039-465e-9e45-42fc1ccada87
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Another argument that you will let the AI out of the box Suppose there exist some non-consequentialist moral philosophies which the right arguments could convince you of, with sufficient strength that you would (temporarily, for at least an hour) become a fanatic. This seems a likely assumption, as I know many people ...
7053088f-f3b2-46aa-b548-7fc9cd774a43
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
If You Can Climb Up, You Can Climb Down A few weeks ago Julia wrote about how we approach kids climbing: > The basics: > 1. Spot the child if they're doing something where a fall is likely. > 2. Don't encourage or help the child to climb something that's beyond their ability to do on their own. > 3. If they don'...
cae78801-1506-4947-9093-8a9279a7510f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Jaan Tallinn's 2022 Philanthropy Overview to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with 2022 results. in 2022 i made $23M worth of endpoint grants ($22.9M after various admin costs), exceeding my commitment of $19.9M (20k times $993.64 — the minimum price of ETH in 2022).
38506fe0-c12b-416a-b724-cff03ea31cc0
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
[AN #131]: Formalizing the argument of ignored attributes in a utility function Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through...
c1b51714-b8d5-4e85-bed9-30f6ac1d7d49
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Thoughts on AGI organizations and capabilities work (*Note: This essay was largely written by Rob, based on notes from Nate. It’s formatted as Rob-paraphrasing-Nate because (a) Nate didn’t have time to rephrase everything into his own words, and (b) most of the impetus for this post came from Eliezer wanting MIRI to* ...
f15973a9-ef7c-439a-8462-25e808e1f070
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Second-Level Empiricism: Reframing the Two-Child Puzzle Empiricism is the belief that knowledge derives from sensory experience, or, by some definitions, experiment. However, empiricism itself can show that it is not the best tool for a given scenario. This article provides an example of when this happened to me. ---...
4d0bc47e-15bc-4195-81fe-881a4c4acb17
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Why Universal Comparability of Utility? Apologies if this is answered elsewhere and I couldn't find it. In AI reading I come across an agent's utility function, .mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size:...
1f9693e7-3974-4b68-ae5d-992e7e3eaac7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Can we hybridize Absent-Minded Driver with Death in Damascus? Summary: I was initially excited to re-encounter the Absent-Minded Driver problem in the light of causal decision theory, because I thought causal decision theory gave a clear-cut wrong answer of "Continue with probability 5/9." If so, it would be a case of...
e05e296a-20b9-4277-a88d-404ba91ae22e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Definitions of Causal Abstraction: Reviewing Beckers & Halpern Author's Notes: This post is fairly technical, with little background and minimal examples; it is not recommended for general consumption. A general understanding of causal models is assumed. This post is probably most useful when read alongside the paper....
f2272762-bab3-4b47-98c2-38da674b77b6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Consensual Hostility In a world of conflict between men and women, constant negotiation of consent is required. But the focus on consent to the exclusion of everything else is in part what brought this world about Cross-posted from Putanumonit, this is part 2/4 of a sequence on selfless dating. ---------------------...
a22c4df1-d15b-47ee-ac94-1f9517e33228
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Compositionality: SQL and Subways Programmers like to talk about a concept called compositionality, which is the idea that programs and code should consist of small, modular components that fit together cleanly. This property is considered almost a holy grail of software design, but there's not a lot of clarity about ...
a841b51e-c252-4cf0-9165-39236b36a2af
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Incentives and Selection: A Missing Frame From AI Threat Discussions? Epistemic Status Written quickly, originally as a Twitter thread. ---------------------------------------- Thesis I think a missing frame from AI threat discussion is incentives (especially economic) and selection (pressures exerted on a system ...
cd7534bc-27ce-42cf-b13b-79a6a4437f2d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Melbourne social meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup WHEN: 21 December 2012 07:00:00PM (+1100) WHERE: See mailing list, Carlton VIC 3053 Melbourne's next social meetup is on Friday 21 December, 6:30 for 7pm, at my house. If you have any trouble working out the location or gett...
6115ce63-2298-41bd-acc0-65b7c18946db
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Do children lose 'childlike curiosity?' Why? A common story goes: Young children love asking 'why', and they often have an earnest curiosity about it that is rare in adults. Something about the process of growing up seems to cause that childlike curiosity to stagnate. There's a lot of compelling explanations about s...
00291c2f-76f7-407d-99e0-4f17d12cb74c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games WHEN: 12 February 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art & Portraiture We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation. Upcoming me...
67b747cf-30bc-4e6f-b0f6-519c38acf90e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Wireheading and misalignment by composition on NetHack TL;DR: We find agents trained with RLAIF to indulge in wireheading in NetHack. Misalignment appears when the agent optimizes a combination of two rewards that produce aligned behaviors when optimized in isolation, and only emerges with some prompt wordings. This ...
12aea713-7de5-4f40-a17f-f22cb26bc21f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Launch of the world's first animal charity evaluator: Effective Animal Activism Apologies, this post was posted by accident.  
2bd0b80a-0eb9-47af-8f17-a32da9fef689
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Group Debugging Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Group Debugging WHEN: 19 September 2016 06:15:10PM (-0700) WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA We’ll be meeting to solve each other’s problems! Here’s how it works: we’ll have everyone brainstorm silently ...
7b262ea5-01e3-4b39-8bdd-19bc34fbc3af
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Type theory Hub page for type theory explanations
63deea8d-f5dc-45b1-93f0-cb9834f9172b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
So you want to work on technical AI safety I’ve been to two EAGx events and one EAG, and the vast majority of my one on ones with junior people end up covering some subset of these questions. I’m happy to have such conversations, but hopefully this is more efficient and wide-reaching (and more than I could fit into a ...
b33672c7-3542-4c50-9cc8-1ee4d068aaf8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Rationality quotes: April 2010 This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions. *  Please post all quotes separately, so that the...
03ea9877-b3db-46ac-934d-5873879f7a91
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Will IOTA work as promized? Currently, a lot of people made money by investing into Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result the transaction fees for both are at the moment high enough to make most use-cases of the technology that existed two years ago impossible. IOTA promizes to be a digital currency without transaction c...
fad72527-807a-4783-863e-9caf0509db30
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[AN #85]: The normative questions we should be asking for AI alignment, and a surprisingly good chatbot View this email in your browser Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happ...
c3f84df2-167f-4999-a5ab-0c89e26947a6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
NC Triangle LW meetup: Wed June 1, 7:00PM The venue: Noodles & Co, at this Durham location Agenda: * A round of Zendo (we didn't get around to it last time) * Socialize, by discussing socialization C'mon... all your friends are doing it...
6722e5b2-bd1e-408e-a3ef-95db521e3c71
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Rough utility estimates and clarifying questions Related to: diminishing returns, utility. I, for example, really don't care that much about trillions of dollars being won in a lottery or offered by an alien AI iff I make 'the right choice'. I mostly deal with things on pretty linear scales, barring sudden gifts from...
ba5d46bf-7316-4b66-82a2-3301c58da5c4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Alignment Newsletter #47 Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al...
3f8d363a-caf0-4089-84d2-6d07569c5e79
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Half-assing it with everything you've got I hang out around a lot of effective altruists. Many of them are motivated primarily by something like guilt (for having great resource and opportunity while others suffer) or shame (for not helping enough). Hell, many of my non-EA friends are primarily motivated by guilt or s...
daeb15f7-5158-4f71-89dc-99f38cc849f9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Resurrection of the dead via multiverse-wide acausual cooperation TL;DR: Measure decline in random mind creation may be prevented if we take into account very large number of random mids created in other universes. Summary: P.Almond suggested the idea of the resurrection of the dead via a quantum random generator whi...
dbbe7d18-6ca5-4f74-a6cc-e6a7104ffa4b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info
AI Safety Info
How might an "intelligence explosion" be dangerous? If programmed with the wrong motivations, a machine could be malevolent toward humans, and intentionally exterminate our species. More likely, it could be designed with motivations that initially appeared safe (and easy to program) to its designers, but that turn out...
8a05de52-88a6-42f4-a8ed-aa430c6941d2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Limits of Artificial Consciousness: A Biology-Based Critique of Chalmers’ Fading Qualia Argument (This essay was written as part of my university philosophy course. I  added Section 5 to the present version.) 1 Introduction In Fading Qualia, Absent Qualia and Dancing Qualia (1995), Chalmers argues explicitly for...
9db13a33-37d3-4085-b24a-2f7696d744ed
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Fraternal Birth Order Effect and the Maternal Immune Hypothesis TLDR; The Bogaert et all (2017) study which claims to find evidence that a particular protein and corresponding antibodies contribute to the FBOE has a significant problem which contradicts the main claim. (I had investigated the below a few years ago bu...
fa9fdfea-5b0e-4ca7-9acc-ba1f20323875
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments We had some discussions of the [AGI ruin arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities) within the DeepMind alignment team to clarify for ourselves which of these arguments we are most concerned about and what the impl...
9788dc39-d6d8-4487-9a11-27a55e436fd3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[AN #66]: Decomposing robustness into capability robustness and alignment robustness Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replyin...
d692b480-63a2-4dc8-8be7-a18df91f8457
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Methods of prompt programming --- Table of Contents* [The reverse-engineered dynamics of language](#the-reverse-engineered-dynamics-of-language) * [Task specification strategies](#task-specification-strategies) + [Direct](#direct) + [By proxy](#by-proxy) + [By demonstration (n-shot)](#by-demonstration-n-shot) * [C...
094ed98b-cbf6-4adf-b7fd-9822f4205cfa
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
DeepMind: Generally capable agents emerge from open-ended play Also see [paper](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/open-ended-learning-leads-to-generally-capable-agents) and [results compilation video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTmL7jwFfdw)! > Today, we published "[Open-Ended Learning Leads to Generall...
3f55d289-10d1-4587-b26f-23ec7e95fe06
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Is Deontological AI Safe? [Feedback Draft] [Note: This post is an excerpt from a longer paper, written during the first half of the Philosophy Fellowship at the Center for AI Safety. I (William D'Alessandro) am a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Along with the other Philosophy Fell...
747bad73-9e0d-4744-a6eb-9ad2e07b8212
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Some Criticisms of the Logical Induction paper
237f59c8-aab9-4506-9cc7-096809ef62db
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Public Choice and the Altruist's Burden The reason that we live in good times is that markets give people a selfish incentive to seek to perform actions that maximize total utility across all humans in the relevant economy: namely, they get paid for their efforts. Without this incentive, people would gravitate to choo...
f83e7ac8-37ae-4dd8-a7b6-cfbe654c7b99
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Bridging syntax and semantics with Quine's Gavagai Quine has an argument showing that you can never be sure what words mean in a foreign language: > Quine uses the example of the word "gavagai" uttered by a native speaker of the unknown language Arunta upon seeing a rabbit. A speaker of English could do what seems na...
297bfbf2-2df6-4ecd-a4eb-6e2204fc4ea4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Advice for Authors I’ve spent much of the last few days reading various ICML papers and I find there’s a few pieces of feedback that I give consistently across several papers. I’ve collated some of these below. As a general note, many of these are about local style rather than global structure; I think that good local...
ebd5f051-29fb-4e19-b172-0b64819a0c18
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
GiveWell: A case study in effective altruism, part 1
c8306252-b512-4483-8b90-fcdb1e000fa4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Time Travel Markets for Intellectual Accounting In a comment to Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes? I said that one of the largest problems with using prediction accuracy (EG prediction markets) as the exclusive standard by which we judge intellectuals would be undervaluing contributing ...
c28fc223-9384-4282-848b-6a4c84f88f19
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
A computational process-tracing method for measuring people’s planning strategies and how they change over time. BehaviorResearchMethods https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-022-01789-5 Acomputationalprocess-tracingmethodformeasuringpeople’s planningstrategiesandhowtheychangeovertime YashRajJain1,2·FrederickCallaway3·Thomas...
8f9f52a5-cf07-49b7-bfd9-63fdbce46ba6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Non-anthropically, what makes us think human-level intelligence is possible? The basic question I'm asking is the following: Suppose you didn't know humans exist. Could you still deduce that general intelligence is possible, and if so how? This may be a weird hypothetical to imagine, so here's my best attempt to giv...
00894f9c-72d7-405c-8964-20d0ea8f494b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Superstimuli, setpoints, and obesity Related to: Babies and Bunnies: A Caution About Evo-Psych, Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization. The main proximate cause of increase in human weight over the last few decades is over-eating - other factors like decreased energy need due to less active lifestyle s...
72a8b397-cf4f-4490-821c-5485d1dcda25
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Notes from a Prompt Factory Content note: this story features severe suffering which, while not described in detail, several readers have described as unpleasant or horrifying. I am a spiteful man. But I am aware of it, which is more than most can say. These days people walk through the streets with resentment in the...
64aab505-41c2-43a4-b1a1-3bf89bb3c0b4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Advice on Communicating Concisely Many people I encounter regularly tell me that I have difficulties communicating spoken ideas in a concise, timely, fashion. I've been reading Less Wrong since I was fifteen, and ask because its likely that people here have useful suggestions. Are there any books on communicating conc...
15abf10c-edc0-4d07-b667-5bb946193b46
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
EIS VIII: An Engineer’s Understanding of Deceptive Alignment Part 8 of 12 in the [Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/a6ne2ve5uturEEQK7). As AI safety researchers, we care a lot about deceptive alignment. So what is it? [Hubinger et al. (2019)](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/z...
7a548cbf-8ed5-4847-97b2-a6367e1856f7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Bayesian Reasoning Applied to House Selling: Listing Price Like Yvain's parents, I am planning on moving house. Selling a house and buying a house involve making a lot of decisions based on limited information, which I thought would make a set of good exercises for the application of Bayesian reasoning. I need to deci...
98a2c387-77bf-4628-aac8-9e402d8bfd2f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
In Defense of Finance I'm sharing the link instead of a full cross-post because this essay has: * 5,300 words * 2 footnotes, with links that actually work * 1 GIF, 2 charts, 5 expanding brains * 30+ lively comments This is a "much more than you wanted to know" type post on the financial industry: * Why every...
2b08ca37-eada-4e80-8b14-10fbf4935548
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Baldness I have been reviewing FUE hair transplants, and I would like LWers' opinion. I'm actually surprised this isn't covered, as it seems relevant to many users.  As far as I can tell, the downsides are: -          Mild scarring on the back of the head -          Doesn’t prevent continued hair loss, so if you get ...
f2799c23-2fc4-44b6-9e2a-75b22db1fb2a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Arthropod (non) sentience Matthew Adelstein has recently published a post on arthropod (specifically shrimp) sentience. He defends a comparable degree of pain between shrimps and humans (shrimp=20% human). My position is that arthropod consciousness is “too small to measure”, so there is not a conscious self on which ...
602c1904-5a71-460c-84d1-2b0520e69d40
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Ottawa - How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa - How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group WHEN: 30 April 2014 07:30:00PM (-0400) WHERE: Royal Oak on the Canal, 221 Echo Dr, Ottawa, ON K1S 1N1, Canada We'll go through and discuss the How to Run a Su...
0deb9c98-60e9-4516-9aeb-3fce898aac90
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Even when contrarians win, they lose: Jeff Hawkins Related: Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose I had long thought that Jeff Hawkins (and the Redwood Center, and Numentia) were pursuing an idea that didn't work, and were continuing to fail to give up for a prolonged period of time. I formed this belief because I had...
87021101-e1dd-493f-a452-8d01a041f014
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Safely Probabilistically Complete Real-Time Planning and Exploration in Unknown Environments I Introduction --------------- Motion planning is a foundational problem in mobile robotics, and the community has devoted significant effort to building theoretical and practical tools for a wide variety of applications. T...
7b00a605-f864-4fe4-a8c0-5526d9e528c5
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
New eBook: ‘Smarter Than Us’ [![SmarterThanUsCover-Angled-200px](https://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/SmarterThanUsCover-Angled-200px.jpg)](https://intelligence.org/smarter-than-us/)We are pleased to release a new ebook, commissioned by MIRI and written by Oxford University’s [Stuart Armstrong](http://w...
412db6ab-8656-4b1e-9ce2-06e7770133d1
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
The Top AI Safety Bets for 2023: GiveWiki’s Latest Recommendations | | | --- | | **Summary:** The AI Safety [GiveWiki](https://givewiki.org/) (formerly Impact Markets) has completed its third round of retroactive impact evaluations – just in time to provide updated recommendations for the giving season! [Here is a re...
64c74a75-4b4f-42d7-8486-35448e6b38eb
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
AI Risk Management Framework: Initial Draft Initial Draft i AI Risk Management Framework: Initial Draft March 17, 2022 This initial draft of the Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF, or Framework) builds on the concept paper released in December 2021 and incorporates the feedback rec...
ee8949f9-f01e-47b2-a167-b3894741776c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over UPDATE 7/21/2021: As you doubtless know at this point, it was not over. Given the visibility of this post, I'm going to note here at the top that the prediction of a potential large wave of infections between March and May did not happen, no matter what ultimately happens with Delt...
0b6c8551-d5b5-4fee-9950-497079d5363b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
"Immortal But Damned to Hell on Earth" http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/05/immortal-but-damned-to-hell-on-earth/394160/   With such long periods of time in play (if we succeed), the improbable hellish scenarios which might befall us become increasingly probable. With the probability of death never...
abf85426-97ef-42ac-8496-2b46e52b64c9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Mitigate the Loss; Fight for the Living This post is an addendum to A Different Prisoner's Dilemma. It is another scenario with which to demonstrate the point. Imagine that you are a person in a horrible and traumatic situation. The love of your life, the parent of your children, has been burned to death, deliberatel...
dd112867-537e-408b-b1c2-0ec47575b8cf
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Ross Gruetzemacher: Defining and unpacking transformative AI --- *The term “transformative AI” (TAI) describes AI that precipitates a major societal transition. Ross Gruetzemacher, a PhD candidate at Auburn University and a data scientist, unpacks the notion of TAI, proposing a distinction between TAI and radically t...
281d706a-1b9f-46a3-9477-4f85c39bdf8f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How much alignment data will we need in the long run? This question stands out to me because: * It should directly affect empirical alignment priorities today * While it is informed by both theoretical and empirical evidence, it seems tractable for purely theoretical alignment researchers to make progress on today ...
93e230d3-be29-48f8-86bb-cdd467279757
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A simple treacherous turn demonstration There is a specific type of treacherous turn, where the model waits and acts aligned during training such that it is deployed, and then proceeds to act misaligned when deployed. A natural reason to expect this to happen is that the model has fewer guardrails and more access to t...
ae5a769c-3b1b-4bf5-b461-7369ec323e5b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Update more slowly! My experience forecasting has led me to realize that a key mistake that is often made is updating on new data too quickly. This seems backwards, but I think that often the biggest reason that people both under- and over-react to evidence is that they don't consider the evidence clearly enough, and ...
b0bbf6e6-ef7c-42cf-84c9-5f2c49262944
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Another Critique of Effective Altruism Cross-posted from my blog. It is almost certainly a bad idea to let this post be your first exposure to the effective altruist movement. You should at the very least read these two posts first. Recently Ben Kuhn wrote a critique of effective altruism. I'm glad to see such self-e...
924e8307-234d-474e-b25f-ae00bc3c56eb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Take the Rationality Test to determine your rational thinking style
91365963-3532-4004-bf05-68b652f6f17f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
My summary of Eliezer's position on free will I'm participating in a university course on free will. On the online forum, someone asked me to summarise Eliezer's solution to the free will problem, and I did it like this. Is it accurate in this form? How should I change it?   “I'll try to summarise Yudkowsky's argume...
b0865d66-2b4a-42e7-a56b-4bdb67fe492b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
EA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until November 24th (this Saturday) I am one of the Fund Managers for the Long-Term Future fund and we are doing a very short round of applications to help donors get a sense of what projects we are likely to fund before giving season: > Have an x-risk or far-fu...
9c6e3b60-5ac0-47fc-b8dd-ab28be838975
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup WHEN: 20 October 2011 02:00:00PM (+0100) WHERE: Delhi Cafe, 67 Nicolson Street, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom. Topic: Value Complexity & Instrumental Rationality Discussion article for the meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup
81b27d9a-f8fa-4b10-8a31-63c7f48614d3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Why does advanced AI want not to be shut down? I've always been pretty confused about this. The standard AI risk scenarios usually (though I think not always) suppose that advanced AI wants not to be shut down. As commonly framed, the AI will fool humanity into believing it is aligned so as not to be turned off, unti...