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58191018-e08d-4abf-85c8-83bd68ba0767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poll Results on AGI
The poll has now settled quite a bit. I have been a bit busy and so it took me a bit longer than expected to write this up – but without further ado let us look at some of the results. Over the past month 74 people voted, 70 people were grouped, and 2,095 votes were cast, with 55 statements submitt... |
d6146ac4-d650-41c7-9601-ff7ded367dce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Laws of Magic
> People are always telling you that "we have always done thus", and then you find that their "always" means a generation or two, or a century or two, at most a millennium or two. Cultural ways and habits are blips compared to the ways and habits of the body, of the race. There really is very littl... |
bc7638f7-cf6a-4f7f-a64d-0f8a19bd3121 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Migration Announcement
The votes are in, and of the eligible 376 voters, 102 voted to Migrate and 15 voted to archive. With 87% in favor, we’re going ahead with the transition, which will begin tomorrow (3/22) at 6pm Pacific time. Trike will take a snapshot of the database, transfer it to us, and we’ll begin the da... |
bd03bfcd-097f-4c84-9dab-5f7a23942e58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building Trust in Strategic Settings
In the previous post, we saw some different types of claims that we might want software systems to automatically evaluate. Ideally, we'd like our software systems to incorporate accurate and useful information, and disregard inaccurate or irrelevant information.
In this post, I'l... |
3450e7bf-4e00-4820-9d2c-3b7431e1c234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava
WHEN: 29 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Mariánska 3, Bratislava
Pre tých, čo chvíľu nechodili: Bistro the Peach sa asi pred dvoma mesiacmi presunulo o ulicu ďalej, a možno stále nie je poriadne označené, ale je to oproti ... |
6f57eeb0-e922-4944-9117-7fc7d6ad0da1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | state of my alignment research, and what needs work
state of my alignment research, and what needs work
---------------------------------------------------
in this post i give an overview of the state of my [AI alignment](ai-doom.html) research, as well as what i think needs to be worked on, notably for people who m... |
cd2dab83-b1a8-44c4-a697-3a131b94dd6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's ok
I probably shouldn't be ranting out my thoughts here. but I really want to get these thoughts out of my head and I'm hopeful no one will come across this random piece.
Have you ever felt obsessed with something you're building? I did - my last 2 years in college. It's an amazing feeling. It's like riding the ... |
5bbc3b1d-5e76-4fbd-9c08-bc0528c16798 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Gym Gridworld Environment for the Treacherous Turn
EDIT: posted here for feedback and discussion. I plan to continue working on different models/environments, so feel free to suggest improvements.
(tl;dr: In an attempt to better understand the treacherous turn, I created a gridworld environment where an agent lear... |
4b823515-7a17-4be5-a0cb-3fa769be424d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-Pascaline agent
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Pascal's wager-like situations come up occasionally with expected utility, making some decisions very tricky. It means that events of the tiniest of probability could dominate the whole decision - intuitively unobvious, and a big negative for a boun... |
eeacf7db-c057-4cc8-8983-bbf4ece094dd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Do-What-I-Mean hierarchy
Do-What-I-Mean refers to an aligned AGI's ability to produce better-aligned plans, based on an explicit model of what the user wants or believes.
Successive levels of DWIM-ness:
- No understanding of human intentions / zero DWIMness. E.g. a Task AGI that is focused on one task being commun... |
d5bdbb46-3944-4824-b294-aed2582e0565 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interesting discussion of concentration and productivity [link]
http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2013/02/04/four-hours-of-concentration/
And since this is the Internet, and facts are involved, our gwern turns up there also. |
3656467a-1792-4a45-b6d7-adf6d4b12fce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "transformative AI"?
**Transformative AI** is "\[...\] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."[^hy8b4kflu8] The concept refers to the large effects of AI systems on our well-being, the global economy, state power, international secu... |
7e469272-7399-4619-913a-0e4a65f5d0c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Find a Problem
There are many ingredients for creativity. One is to have a lot of knowledge saved up, so it can combined in novel ways. One is to actually think about things for five minutes. One is to not flinch away from problems when you find them.
But the most important is to have a problem to solve. Or if... |
4fa428e9-c05a-4e0b-a47d-3ffe795c22ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Results of LW Technical Background Survey
See results here.
The main goal of the survey was to provide info for authors about their target audience, so here's a high-level overview toward that end:
* The average respondent is some kind of professional programmer, with an undergrad degree (or equivalent) in CS.
* M... |
2616c899-aaa8-4728-ad94-01424382e9d7 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "My deconversion from Christianity had a large positive impact on my life. I suspect it had a small positive impact on the world, too. (For example, I no longer condemn gays or waste time and money on a relationship with an imaginary friend.) And my deconversion did not happen because I came to understand the Bayesian ... |
88fe198e-ed88-45a0-913a-bbcdb405c9c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison
WHEN: 02 August 2011 06:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1225 Regent St. Madison, WI
With the intent of being the first of many regular meetups, let's get together on Tuesday. I plan to conduct a few exercises on brainstorming, including the "alternatives procedure... |
f9b99de0-053b-4a4f-859b-a458a84d04a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disentangling inner alignment failures
TL;DR: This is an attempt to disentangle some concepts that I used to conflate too much as just "inner alignment". This will be old news to some, but might be helpful for people who feel confused about how deception, distributional shift, and "sharp left turns" are related. I fir... |
39a98cca-5809-44ec-ba2a-8d7347eea691 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards learning incomplete models using inner prediction markets
This post is a short informal summary of a new idea I'm starting to work on, which combines my thinking abouts "incomplete models" with Scott's logical inductors.
Motivation
Before, I speculated that generalizing Bayesian inference to include incomple... |
28484141-d88c-413d-9254-7259591ba63a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Anti-'FOOM' (stop trying to make your cute pet name the thing)
*Notes/basis:* This is kind of a short-form post in style but I think it's important enough to put here. Obviously let me know if someone else said this better
Summary
-------
Formal overly-intellectual academese is bad. But using your 'cute' inside jo... |
f0555357-9727-4b25-932b-7cd8ea473915 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Response to “Coordinated pausing: An evaluation-based coordination scheme for frontier AI developers”
 played for contra dancing:
Harris Lapiroff called:
If anyone has pictures o... |
febe03b1-8402-42b8-bbac-f546f9d40943 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three of my beliefs about upcoming AGI
[Epistemic Status: Semi-informed conjecture. Feedback is welcome.]
At EAG last month, I got the advice to develop my own mental model of what general/transformative/superintelligent AI will look like when it gets here, and where I think the risks lie. This week I’ll be writing ... |
372b44d9-141f-49b2-a131-7bb6604a1b8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Am I obligated to reread the Book of Mormon?
In this comment thread, I stated that
> I have read the Book of Mormon in the past, but I hereby precommit to reading it again and "searching in my heart" (I have a copy on my bookshelf) if you can demonstrate that my skepticism regarding your evidence is unwarranted.
In ... |
c7cee79e-a2c5-40d1-b8d8-42634a0eba19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your intuitions are not magic
People who know a little bit of statistics - enough to use statistical techniques, not enough to understand why or how they work - often end up horribly misusing them. Statistical tests are complicated mathematical techniques, and to work, they tend to make numerous assumptions. The probl... |
04f8e6a0-7c60-4c5e-b4c4-432aff415cd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Tetlock on the power of precise predictions to counter political polarization
The prediction expert Philip Tetlock writes in New York Times on the power of precise predictions to counter political polarization. Note the similarity to Robin Hanson's futarchy idea.
> IS there a solution to this country’s polariz... |
141df73a-a7c4-47b4-b9ea-62580c09b899 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alan Kay - Programming and Scaling
(Republishing the comment linked by Said Achmiz below.)
What Is This Talk About
This talk is about several things.
Software ‘Engineering’ - For the amount of functionality we get out of systems, we seem to have to write a lot of code. Alan Kay tries to give the viewer a sense of t... |
6fddea43-b1b5-494d-9653-207962433149 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On motivations for MIRI's highly reliable agent design research
(this post came out of a conversation between me and Owen Cotton-Barratt, plus a follow-up conversation with Nate)
I want to clarify my understanding of some of the motivations of MIRI's highly reliable agent design (HRAD) research (e.g. logical uncertai... |
01e9bd98-bc58-464c-9d40-ce066a1d6fd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Objections to Coherent Extrapolated Volition
> In poetic terms, our coherent extrapolated volition is our wish if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, had grown up farther together; where the extrapolation converges rather than diverges, where our wishes cohere rather than interfere; e... |
0aa6da47-238d-4966-b1f3-c52df7f958ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | two puzzles on rationality of defeat
I present here two puzzles of rationality you LessWrongers may think is worth to deal with. Maybe the first one looks more amenable to a simple solution, while the second one has called attention of a number of contemporary epistemologists (Cargile, Feldman, Harman), and does not ... |
db7de5ef-a039-465e-9e45-42fc1ccada87 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Another argument that you will let the AI out of the box
Suppose there exist some non-consequentialist moral philosophies which the right arguments could convince you of, with sufficient strength that you would (temporarily, for at least an hour) become a fanatic. This seems a likely assumption, as I know many people ... |
7053088f-f3b2-46aa-b548-7fc9cd774a43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If You Can Climb Up, You Can Climb Down
A few weeks ago Julia wrote about how we approach kids climbing:
> The basics:
> 1. Spot the child if they're doing something where a fall is likely.
> 2. Don't encourage or help the child to climb something that's beyond their ability to do on their own.
> 3. If they don'... |
cae78801-1506-4947-9093-8a9279a7510f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jaan Tallinn's 2022 Philanthropy Overview
to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with 2022 results.
in 2022 i made $23M worth of endpoint grants ($22.9M after various admin costs), exceeding my commitment of $19.9M (20k times $993.64 — the minimum price of ETH in 2022). |
38506fe0-c12b-416a-b724-cff03ea31cc0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #131]: Formalizing the argument of ignored attributes in a utility function
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through... |
c1b51714-b8d5-4e85-bed9-30f6ac1d7d49 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Thoughts on AGI organizations and capabilities work
(*Note: This essay was largely written by Rob, based on notes from Nate. It’s formatted as Rob-paraphrasing-Nate because (a) Nate didn’t have time to rephrase everything into his own words, and (b) most of the impetus for this post came from Eliezer wanting MIRI to* ... |
f15973a9-ef7c-439a-8462-25e808e1f070 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Second-Level Empiricism: Reframing the Two-Child Puzzle
Empiricism is the belief that knowledge derives from sensory experience, or, by some definitions, experiment. However, empiricism itself can show that it is not the best tool for a given scenario. This article provides an example of when this happened to me.
---... |
4d0bc47e-15bc-4195-81fe-881a4c4acb17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why Universal Comparability of Utility?
Apologies if this is answered elsewhere and I couldn't find it. In AI reading I come across an agent's utility function, .mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size:... |
1f9693e7-3974-4b68-ae5d-992e7e3eaac7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we hybridize Absent-Minded Driver with Death in Damascus?
Summary:
I was initially excited to re-encounter the Absent-Minded Driver problem in the light of causal decision theory, because I thought causal decision theory gave a clear-cut wrong answer of "Continue with probability 5/9." If so, it would be a case of... |
e05e296a-20b9-4277-a88d-404ba91ae22e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Definitions of Causal Abstraction: Reviewing Beckers & Halpern
Author's Notes: This post is fairly technical, with little background and minimal examples; it is not recommended for general consumption. A general understanding of causal models is assumed. This post is probably most useful when read alongside the paper.... |
f2272762-bab3-4b47-98c2-38da674b77b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consensual Hostility
In a world of conflict between men and women, constant negotiation of consent is required. But the focus on consent to the exclusion of everything else is in part what brought this world about
Cross-posted from Putanumonit, this is part 2/4 of a sequence on selfless dating.
---------------------... |
a22c4df1-d15b-47ee-ac94-1f9517e33228 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compositionality: SQL and Subways
Programmers like to talk about a concept called compositionality, which is the idea that programs and code should consist of small, modular components that fit together cleanly. This property is considered almost a holy grail of software design, but there's not a lot of clarity about ... |
a841b51e-c252-4cf0-9165-39236b36a2af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incentives and Selection: A Missing Frame From AI Threat Discussions?
Epistemic Status
Written quickly, originally as a Twitter thread.
----------------------------------------
Thesis
I think a missing frame from AI threat discussion is incentives (especially economic) and selection (pressures exerted on a system ... |
cd7534bc-27ce-42cf-b13b-79a6a4437f2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 21 December 2012 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: See mailing list, Carlton VIC 3053
Melbourne's next social meetup is on Friday 21 December, 6:30 for 7pm, at my house. If you have any trouble working out the location or gett... |
6115ce63-2298-41bd-acc0-65b7c18946db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do children lose 'childlike curiosity?' Why?
A common story goes:
Young children love asking 'why', and they often have an earnest curiosity about it that is rare in adults. Something about the process of growing up seems to cause that childlike curiosity to stagnate.
There's a lot of compelling explanations about s... |
00291c2f-76f7-407d-99e0-4f17d12cb74c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 12 February 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art & Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
Upcoming me... |
67b747cf-30bc-4e6f-b0f6-519c38acf90e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wireheading and misalignment by composition on NetHack
TL;DR: We find agents trained with RLAIF to indulge in wireheading in NetHack. Misalignment appears when the agent optimizes a combination of two rewards that produce aligned behaviors when optimized in isolation, and only emerges with some prompt wordings.
This ... |
12aea713-7de5-4f40-a17f-f22cb26bc21f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Launch of the world's first animal charity evaluator: Effective Animal Activism
Apologies, this post was posted by accident.
|
2bd0b80a-0eb9-47af-8f17-a32da9fef689 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Group Debugging
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Group Debugging
WHEN: 19 September 2016 06:15:10PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We’ll be meeting to solve each other’s problems!
Here’s how it works: we’ll have everyone brainstorm silently ... |
7b262ea5-01e3-4b39-8bdd-19bc34fbc3af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Type theory
Hub page for type theory explanations |
63deea8d-f5dc-45b1-93f0-cb9834f9172b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | So you want to work on technical AI safety
I’ve been to two EAGx events and one EAG, and the vast majority of my one on ones with junior people end up covering some subset of these questions. I’m happy to have such conversations, but hopefully this is more efficient and wide-reaching (and more than I could fit into a ... |
b33672c7-3542-4c50-9cc8-1ee4d068aaf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality quotes: April 2010
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.
* Please post all quotes separately, so that the... |
03ea9877-b3db-46ac-934d-5873879f7a91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will IOTA work as promized?
Currently, a lot of people made money by investing into Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result the transaction fees for both are at the moment high enough to make most use-cases of the technology that existed two years ago impossible.
IOTA promizes to be a digital currency without transaction c... |
fad72527-807a-4783-863e-9caf0509db30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #85]: The normative questions we should be asking for AI alignment, and a surprisingly good chatbot
View this email in your browser
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happ... |
c3f84df2-167f-4999-a5ab-0c89e26947a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NC Triangle LW meetup: Wed June 1, 7:00PM
The venue: Noodles & Co, at this Durham location
Agenda:
* A round of Zendo (we didn't get around to it last time)
* Socialize, by discussing socialization
C'mon... all your friends are doing it... |
6722e5b2-bd1e-408e-a3ef-95db521e3c71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rough utility estimates and clarifying questions
Related to: diminishing returns, utility.
I, for example, really don't care that much about trillions of dollars being won in a lottery or offered by an alien AI iff I make 'the right choice'. I mostly deal with things on pretty linear scales, barring sudden gifts from... |
ba5d46bf-7316-4b66-82a2-3301c58da5c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #47
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al... |
3f8d363a-caf0-4089-84d2-6d07569c5e79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Half-assing it with everything you've got
I hang out around a lot of effective altruists. Many of them are motivated primarily by something like guilt (for having great resource and opportunity while others suffer) or shame (for not helping enough). Hell, many of my non-EA friends are primarily motivated by guilt or s... |
daeb15f7-5158-4f71-89dc-99f38cc849f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resurrection of the dead via multiverse-wide acausual cooperation
TL;DR: Measure decline in random mind creation may be prevented if we take into account very large number of random mids created in other universes.
Summary: P.Almond suggested the idea of the resurrection of the dead via a quantum random generator whi... |
dbbe7d18-6ca5-4f74-a6cc-e6a7104ffa4b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How might an "intelligence explosion" be dangerous?
If programmed with the wrong motivations, a machine could be malevolent toward humans, and intentionally exterminate our species. More likely, it could be designed with motivations that initially appeared safe (and easy to program) to its designers, but that turn out... |
8a05de52-88a6-42f4-a8ed-aa430c6941d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Limits of Artificial Consciousness: A Biology-Based Critique of Chalmers’ Fading Qualia Argument
(This essay was written as part of my university philosophy course. I added Section 5 to the present version.)
1 Introduction
In Fading Qualia, Absent Qualia and Dancing Qualia (1995), Chalmers argues explicitly for... |
9db13a33-37d3-4085-b24a-2f7696d744ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fraternal Birth Order Effect and the Maternal Immune Hypothesis
TLDR; The Bogaert et all (2017) study which claims to find evidence that a particular protein and corresponding antibodies contribute to the FBOE has a significant problem which contradicts the main claim.
(I had investigated the below a few years ago bu... |
fa9fdfea-5b0e-4ca7-9acc-ba1f20323875 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
We had some discussions of the [AGI ruin arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities) within the DeepMind alignment team to clarify for ourselves which of these arguments we are most concerned about and what the impl... |
9788dc39-d6d8-4487-9a11-27a55e436fd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #66]: Decomposing robustness into capability robustness and alignment robustness
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replyin... |
d692b480-63a2-4dc8-8be7-a18df91f8457 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Methods of prompt programming
---
Table of Contents* [The reverse-engineered dynamics of language](#the-reverse-engineered-dynamics-of-language)
* [Task specification strategies](#task-specification-strategies)
+ [Direct](#direct)
+ [By proxy](#by-proxy)
+ [By demonstration (n-shot)](#by-demonstration-n-shot)
* [C... |
094ed98b-cbf6-4adf-b7fd-9822f4205cfa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | DeepMind: Generally capable agents emerge from open-ended play
Also see [paper](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/open-ended-learning-leads-to-generally-capable-agents) and [results compilation video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTmL7jwFfdw)!
> Today, we published "[Open-Ended Learning Leads to Generall... |
3f55d289-10d1-4587-b26f-23ec7e95fe06 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Is Deontological AI Safe? [Feedback Draft]
[Note: This post is an excerpt from a longer paper, written during the first half of the Philosophy Fellowship at the Center for AI Safety. I (William D'Alessandro) am a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Along with the other Philosophy Fell... |
747bad73-9e0d-4744-a6eb-9ad2e07b8212 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Criticisms of the Logical Induction paper
|
237f59c8-aab9-4506-9cc7-096809ef62db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Public Choice and the Altruist's Burden
The reason that we live in good times is that markets give people a selfish incentive to seek to perform actions that maximize total utility across all humans in the relevant economy: namely, they get paid for their efforts. Without this incentive, people would gravitate to choo... |
f83e7ac8-37ae-4dd8-a7b6-cfbe654c7b99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bridging syntax and semantics with Quine's Gavagai
Quine has an argument showing that you can never be sure what words mean in a foreign language:
> Quine uses the example of the word "gavagai" uttered by a native speaker of the unknown language Arunta upon seeing a rabbit. A speaker of English could do what seems na... |
297bfbf2-2df6-4ecd-a4eb-6e2204fc4ea4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Advice for Authors
I’ve spent much of the last few days reading various ICML papers and I find there’s a few pieces of feedback that I give consistently across several papers. I’ve collated some of these below. As a general note, many of these are about local style rather than global structure; I think that good local... |
ebd5f051-29fb-4e19-b172-0b64819a0c18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GiveWell: A case study in effective altruism, part 1
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c8306252-b512-4483-8b90-fcdb1e000fa4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Time Travel Markets for Intellectual Accounting
In a comment to Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes? I said that one of the largest problems with using prediction accuracy (EG prediction markets) as the exclusive standard by which we judge intellectuals would be undervaluing contributing ... |
c28fc223-9384-4282-848b-6a4c84f88f19 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A computational process-tracing method for measuring people’s planning strategies and how they change over time.
BehaviorResearchMethods
https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-022-01789-5
Acomputationalprocess-tracingmethodformeasuringpeople’s
planningstrategiesandhowtheychangeovertime
YashRajJain1,2·FrederickCallaway3·Thomas... |
8f9f52a5-cf07-49b7-bfd9-63fdbce46ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-anthropically, what makes us think human-level intelligence is possible?
The basic question I'm asking is the following:
Suppose you didn't know humans exist. Could you still deduce that general intelligence is possible, and if so how?
This may be a weird hypothetical to imagine, so here's my best attempt to giv... |
00894f9c-72d7-405c-8964-20d0ea8f494b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superstimuli, setpoints, and obesity
Related to: Babies and Bunnies: A Caution About Evo-Psych, Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization.
The main proximate cause of increase in human weight over the last few decades is over-eating - other factors like decreased energy need due to less active lifestyle s... |
72a8b397-cf4f-4490-821c-5485d1dcda25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes from a Prompt Factory
Content note: this story features severe suffering which, while not described in detail, several readers have described as unpleasant or horrifying.
I am a spiteful man. But I am aware of it, which is more than most can say. These days people walk through the streets with resentment in the... |
64aab505-41c2-43a4-b1a1-3bf89bb3c0b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice on Communicating Concisely
Many people I encounter regularly tell me that I have difficulties communicating spoken ideas in a concise, timely, fashion. I've been reading Less Wrong since I was fifteen, and ask because its likely that people here have useful suggestions. Are there any books on communicating conc... |
15abf10c-edc0-4d07-b667-5bb946193b46 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EIS VIII: An Engineer’s Understanding of Deceptive Alignment
Part 8 of 12 in the [Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/a6ne2ve5uturEEQK7).
As AI safety researchers, we care a lot about deceptive alignment. So what is it? [Hubinger et al. (2019)](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/z... |
7a548cbf-8ed5-4847-97b2-a6367e1856f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Reasoning Applied to House Selling: Listing Price
Like Yvain's parents, I am planning on moving house. Selling a house and buying a house involve making a lot of decisions based on limited information, which I thought would make a set of good exercises for the application of Bayesian reasoning. I need to deci... |
98a2c387-77bf-4628-aac8-9e402d8bfd2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense of Finance
I'm sharing the link instead of a full cross-post because this essay has:
* 5,300 words
* 2 footnotes, with links that actually work
* 1 GIF, 2 charts, 5 expanding brains
* 30+ lively comments
This is a "much more than you wanted to know" type post on the financial industry:
* Why every... |
2b08ca37-eada-4e80-8b14-10fbf4935548 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Baldness
I have been reviewing FUE hair transplants, and I would like LWers' opinion. I'm actually surprised this isn't covered, as it seems relevant to many users.
As far as I can tell, the downsides are:
- Mild scarring on the back of the head
- Doesn’t prevent continued hair loss, so if you get ... |
f2799c23-2fc4-44b6-9e2a-75b22db1fb2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arthropod (non) sentience
Matthew Adelstein has recently published a post on arthropod (specifically shrimp) sentience. He defends a comparable degree of pain between shrimps and humans (shrimp=20% human). My position is that arthropod consciousness is “too small to measure”, so there is not a conscious self on which ... |
602c1904-5a71-460c-84d1-2b0520e69d40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ottawa - How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa - How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group
WHEN: 30 April 2014 07:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Royal Oak on the Canal, 221 Echo Dr, Ottawa, ON K1S 1N1, Canada
We'll go through and discuss the How to Run a Su... |
0deb9c98-60e9-4516-9aeb-3fce898aac90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Even when contrarians win, they lose: Jeff Hawkins
Related: Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose
I had long thought that Jeff Hawkins (and the Redwood Center, and Numentia) were pursuing an idea that didn't work, and were continuing to fail to give up for a prolonged period of time. I formed this belief because I had... |
87021101-e1dd-493f-a452-8d01a041f014 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Safely Probabilistically Complete Real-Time Planning and Exploration in Unknown Environments
I Introduction
---------------
Motion planning is a foundational problem in mobile robotics, and the community has devoted significant effort to building theoretical and practical tools for a wide variety of applications.
T... |
7b00a605-f864-4fe4-a8c0-5526d9e528c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New eBook: ‘Smarter Than Us’
[](https://intelligence.org/smarter-than-us/)We are pleased to release a new ebook, commissioned by MIRI and written by Oxford University’s [Stuart Armstrong](http://w... |
412db6ab-8656-4b1e-9ce2-06e7770133d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Top AI Safety Bets for 2023: GiveWiki’s Latest Recommendations
| |
| --- |
| **Summary:** The AI Safety [GiveWiki](https://givewiki.org/) (formerly Impact Markets) has completed its third round of retroactive impact evaluations – just in time to provide updated recommendations for the giving season! [Here is a re... |
64c74a75-4b4f-42d7-8486-35448e6b38eb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI Risk Management Framework: Initial Draft
Initial Draft
i AI Risk Management Framework: Initial Draft
March 17, 2022
This initial draft of the Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF, or
Framework) builds on the concept paper released in December 2021 and incorporates the
feedback rec... |
ee8949f9-f01e-47b2-a167-b3894741776c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
UPDATE 7/21/2021: As you doubtless know at this point, it was not over. Given the visibility of this post, I'm going to note here at the top that the prediction of a potential large wave of infections between March and May did not happen, no matter what ultimately happens with Delt... |
0b6c8551-d5b5-4fee-9950-497079d5363b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Immortal But Damned to Hell on Earth"
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/05/immortal-but-damned-to-hell-on-earth/394160/
With such long periods of time in play (if we succeed), the improbable hellish scenarios which might befall us become increasingly probable.
With the probability of death never... |
abf85426-97ef-42ac-8496-2b46e52b64c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mitigate the Loss; Fight for the Living
This post is an addendum to A Different Prisoner's Dilemma. It is another scenario with which to demonstrate the point.
Imagine that you are a person in a horrible and traumatic situation. The love of your life, the parent of your children, has been burned to death, deliberatel... |
dd112867-537e-408b-b1c2-0ec47575b8cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Ross Gruetzemacher: Defining and unpacking transformative AI
---
*The term “transformative AI” (TAI) describes AI that precipitates a major societal transition. Ross Gruetzemacher, a PhD candidate at Auburn University and a data scientist, unpacks the notion of TAI, proposing a distinction between TAI and radically t... |
281d706a-1b9f-46a3-9477-4f85c39bdf8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much alignment data will we need in the long run?
This question stands out to me because:
* It should directly affect empirical alignment priorities today
* While it is informed by both theoretical and empirical evidence, it seems tractable for purely theoretical alignment researchers to make progress on today
... |
93e230d3-be29-48f8-86bb-cdd467279757 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple treacherous turn demonstration
There is a specific type of treacherous turn, where the model waits and acts aligned during training such that it is deployed, and then proceeds to act misaligned when deployed. A natural reason to expect this to happen is that the model has fewer guardrails and more access to t... |
ae5a769c-3b1b-4bf5-b461-7369ec323e5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Update more slowly!
My experience forecasting has led me to realize that a key mistake that is often made is updating on new data too quickly. This seems backwards, but I think that often the biggest reason that people both under- and over-react to evidence is that they don't consider the evidence clearly enough, and ... |
b0bbf6e6-ef7c-42cf-84c9-5f2c49262944 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Another Critique of Effective Altruism
Cross-posted from my blog. It is almost certainly a bad idea to let this post be your first exposure to the effective altruist movement. You should at the very least read these two posts first.
Recently Ben Kuhn wrote a critique of effective altruism. I'm glad to see such self-e... |
924e8307-234d-474e-b25f-ae00bc3c56eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Take the Rationality Test to determine your rational thinking style
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91365963-3532-4004-bf05-68b652f6f17f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My summary of Eliezer's position on free will
I'm participating in a university course on free will. On the online forum, someone asked me to summarise Eliezer's solution to the free will problem, and I did it like this. Is it accurate in this form? How should I change it?
“I'll try to summarise Yudkowsky's argume... |
b0865d66-2b4a-42e7-a56b-4bdb67fe492b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until November 24th (this Saturday)
I am one of the Fund Managers for the Long-Term Future fund and we are doing a very short round of applications to help donors get a sense of what projects we are likely to fund before giving season:
> Have an x-risk or far-fu... |
9c6e3b60-5ac0-47fc-b8dd-ab28be838975 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup
WHEN: 20 October 2011 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Delhi Cafe, 67 Nicolson Street, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom.
Topic: Value Complexity & Instrumental Rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Edinburgh LW Meetup |
81b27d9a-f8fa-4b10-8a31-63c7f48614d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why does advanced AI want not to be shut down?
I've always been pretty confused about this.
The standard AI risk scenarios usually (though I think not always) suppose that advanced AI wants not to be shut down. As commonly framed, the AI will fool humanity into believing it is aligned so as not to be turned off, unti... |
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