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c3fa2c4b-52a6-440a-afd3-e715d1b454ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleep Training
Let's say you're a baby. You reach the end of a sleep cycle and become partially alert. What do you do? Ideally, if nothing were wrong you would settle back in for another sleep cycle. Chances are, however, you don't know how to do this yet, so you wake up more fully and start to cry. This seems to reli... |
65b4183a-36ef-4128-a460-bc8dbfc23da0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What AI Take-Over Movies or Books Will Scare Me Into Taking AI Seriously?
[I've been worried about x-risk for a very long time.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bwn3zPFkfesNhizCa/how-i-came-to-longtermism-on-my-own-and-an-outsider) But for some reason [**AI x-risk**](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/a... |
4f5195f6-22c9-422d-8e9c-ebe7e816b677 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Reward is Enough.
Reward is enough
================
Abstract
--------
In this article we hypothesise that intelligence, and its associated abilities, can be understood as subserving the maximisation of reward. Accordingly, reward is enough to drive behaviour that exhibits abilities studied in natural and artificial ... |
b650d27a-d171-4bfe-b527-682fed602f94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress, Stagnation, & Collapse
The Progress Equation
In 1960: The Year the Singularity was Cancelled, Scott Alexander discusses what I'll call the progress equation. The equation states that technological progress increases the carrying capacity of the environment (the size of the largest population which can sustai... |
ad9c304e-3f17-4d33-8435-a4415738ddb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Layering and Technical Debt in the Global Wayfinding Model
Global Wayfinding is a model of meditation and transformative practice, developed by Mark Lippmann. Mark's materials are unfortunately fairly inaccessible, often even to people with both substantial technical and meditation backgrounds. I'd like to make some c... |
19f2dac0-2cab-47dd-9acd-3c5e794e7a70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why "training against scheming" is hard
TLDR: I think that AI developers will and should attempt to reduce scheming by explicitly training the model to scheme less. However, I think “training against scheming” is a harder problem than other alignment training (e.g. harmlessness training). I list four concrete failure ... |
58049409-aafb-446c-aece-411b5e5f2338 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transparency in safety-critical systems
I've just posted an analysis to MIRI's blog called Transparency in Safety-Critical Systems. Its aim is to explain a common view about transparency and system reliability, and then open a dialogue about which parts of that view are wrong, or don't apply well to AGI.
The "common ... |
22dc9efd-e566-4256-aa67-cd8235231987 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AlphaGo Zero and capability amplification
[AlphaGo Zero](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphago-zero-learning-scratch/) is an impressive demonstration of AI capabilities. It also happens to be a nice proof-of-concept of a [promising alignment strategy](/benign-model-free-rl-4aae8c97e385).
How AlphaGo Zero works
==========... |
a6d3e539-d7d5-420c-bf95-38b7d0e43f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [POLL] Wisdom of the Crowd experiment
Many of you will be familiar with the "Wisdom of the Crowd" - a phenomenon where the average result of a large poll of people's estimates tends to be very accurate, even when most people make poor estimates. I've written a short poll to test a small variant of this setup which I w... |
b9479f8a-a628-47a5-9cbe-7f41322b9612 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is suicide high-status?
I sometimes have thoughts of suicide. That does not mean I would ever come within a mile of committing the act of suicide. But my brain does simulate it; though I do try to always reduce such thoughts.
But what I have noticed is that 'suicide' is triggered in my mind whenever I think of some e... |
459e728d-e4a6-4d31-b5f4-4c77f62119de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for AI / Application Engineer @ OpenPrinciples -- Help people align actions with principles
I’m Ti Guo, I am into rationality and is co-founder of EA UWaterloo, and EA IBM. We are looking for remote & part-time EA-aligned Co-founding Team member, or non-paid intern AI / Application Engineer (Python), to help b... |
575af483-aec6-42f7-b47e-c55d732fd516 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Programming the LW Study Hall
We've had considerable interest and uptake on the Less Wrong Study Hall, especially with informal timed Pomodoro sessions for everyone to synchronize on. Working together with a number of other visible faces, and your own face visible to them, does seem effective. Keeping the social cha... |
bca68553-832c-4b85-a424-fa119ba713e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Urgency in the ITN framework
I have a question about the ITN framework, which is used to evaluate and prioritise causes in the context of effective altruism (importance, tractability, and neglectedness). I have the impression that this method does not take into account an element that seems essential to me: the urgenc... |
bae1989a-7842-4cbb-8d22-13de6eb102d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | HP:MoR Audio Book Pilot
Like far too many people, I have a job that for decent chunks of my day doesn't require much concentration. I listen to various podcasts and ebooks to alleviate the boredom at these times, as well as to get me through my daily commute. I have several friends with plenty of audio-listening time,... |
bb6fd287-f885-4161-9ab3-86e3033d6932 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Utrecht: More on effective altruism
Discussion article for the meetup : Utrecht: More on effective altruism
WHEN: 05 April 2014 05:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Oudegracht 158, 3511 AZ Utrecht, The Netherlands
Our last meetup went well and we hope to keep the momentum growing. As of yet, we have no specific agend... |
1a920d05-72a4-4c30-a36c-896b6b852a45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Control Symmetry: why we might want to start investigating asymmetric alignment interventions
[This is a post summarizing the motivation for an AISC 2024 project: If you are interested in participating you can apply here: <https://aisafety.camp/> (project 25: [Asymmetric control in LLMs: model editing and steering th... |
849ab9a0-359e-4c1a-9980-d3869907c157 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Untrusted AIs can exploit feedback in control protocols
TL;DR
* We explore a novel control protocol, Untrusted Editing with Trusted Feedback. Instead of having a trusted model directly edit suspicious outputs (trusted editing), the trusted model provides feedback for an untrusted model to implement, taking advantage ... |
4883ac7a-da8c-431e-91e3-feba9b0fcb5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Paley's iPod: The cognitive basis of the design argument within natural theology'
De Cruz & de Smedt (2010) tries to explain, using cognitive science, why many people find design arguments so compelling. Abstract:
> The argument from design stands as one of the most intuitively compelling arguments for the existence... |
c8a1285b-0b8e-4db9-8f78-0c197892166a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The case for Doing Something Else (if Alignment is doomed)
(Related to [What an Actually Pessimistic Containment Strategy Looks Like](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kipMvuaK3NALvFHc9/what-an-actually-pessimistic-containment-strategy-looks-like))
It seems to me like there are several approaches with an outside chanc... |
82cd8d61-d9bf-4470-80a5-9e90272cc92a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Only optimize to 95 %
I was reading Tom Chivers book "The AI does not hate you" and in a discussion about avoiding bad side effects when asking a magic broomstick to fill a water bucket, it was suggested that somehow instead of asking the broomstick to fill the bucket you could do something like ask it to become 95 pe... |
b4b3fbe1-08db-44e6-a83c-fa9fe178439d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Safety Career Bottlenecks Survey Responses Responses
A few months ago, [AI Safety Support](https://www.aisafetysupport.org) conducted an [AI Safety Career Bottlenecks Survey](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/n8cydtu/run) (if you missed it you are still welcome to respond).
One of the questions asked was “*Any... |
6e321781-7cc5-40ba-b44e-a196e4faf78b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An ML interpretation of Shard Theory
Crossposted from my personal blog
Epistemic Status: I have spent a fair bit of time reading the core Shard Theory posts and trying to understand it. I also have a background in RL as well as the computational neuroscience of action and decision-making. However, I may be misunders... |
db0699f8-fea7-4202-b757-bedf23821177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Only needs a flying saucer
This is a personal entry. I do not write it to convey much information, it's more of a point of view thing. I was asked for an inside view, but I guess that's not exactly it.
My mother, my son and I are now in the Czech Republic. This we owe to the goodwill and kindness of very many people,... |
c262a87f-3027-44c3-8076-6bf6ffbceab6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gordon Irlam on the BEGuide
This post summarizes a conversation which was part of the Cause Prioritization Shallow, all parts of which are available here. Previously in this series, conversations with Owen Cotton-Barratt, Paul Christiano, and Paul Penley.
Participants
Gordon Irlam: Philanthropist and Founder of Ba... |
65aec8bd-54c9-4736-a164-afbbb86f762f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bounded AI might be viable
(Work done at Convergence Analysis. Mateusz wrote the post and is responsible for most of the ideas with Justin helping to think it through. Thanks to Olga Babeeva for the feedback on this post.)
1. Motivation
Suppose the perspective of pausing or significantly slowing down AI progress or ... |
bbae039d-7325-48b9-9539-04fafd0df900 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A simple example of conditional orthogonality in finite factored sets
Recently, MIRI researcher Scott Garrabrant has [publicized his work on finite factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr/p/N5Jm6Nj4HkNKySA5Z). It allegedly offers a way to understand agency and causality in a set-up like the [causa... |
0eb5d74c-6089-4330-8fb7-969877a48eb5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Biextensional Equivalence
This is the third post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
This post will introduce the standard equivalence relations we'll be using for Cartesian frames. Our primary interest will ... |
af40f281-3277-443e-8dfa-05954ee10e3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any suggestions for an impactful master's thesis in Political Science?
I have a particular interest in the interplay between political science and artificial intelligence. My focus is less on safety - more on implementation/use-case. I have especially focused on education and decision-making more broad and in the con... |
56a72e79-a64e-4fa7-b96e-ff79e02930f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visualizing Bayesian Inference [link]
Galton Visualizing Bayesian Inference (article @ CHANCE)
Excerpt:
> What does Bayes Theorem look like? I do not mean what does the formula—
>
>
>
> —look like; these days, every statistician knows that. I mean, how can we visualize the cognitive content of the theorem? What p... |
3cde9f34-360d-4b55-a75a-edef17ac0531 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Named Distributions as Artifacts
On confusing priors with models
Being Abraham de Moivre and being born in the 17th century must have been a really sad state of affairs. For one, you have the bubonic plague thing going on, but even worse for de Moivre, you don't have computers and sensors for automated data collection... |
862e9d64-f7be-4cb5-a792-412da27fbcd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Walkthrough: The Transformer Architecture [Part 2/2]
If you are already sort of familiar with the Transformer, this post can serve as a standalone technical explanation of the architecture. Otherwise, I recommend reading part one to get the gist of what the network is doing.
Yesterday, I left us with two images of th... |
bcc9ff99-0bc1-48f4-ad67-3ff8977e61da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Robust multi-agent reinforcement learning via minimax deep deterministic policy gradient.
Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
via Minimax Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient
Shihui LiyYi WuzXinyue Cui§Honghua Dong§Fei FangyStuart Russellz
yCarnegie Mellon University {shihuil,feifang}@cmu.edu
zUniversity of Califo... |
6542ffef-5bca-43b1-ba50-993a4925f092 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is effective altruism new and obvious?
Crossposted from the EA forum ages ago. I meant to put it on my own blog then, but somehow failed to it seems.
Ben Kuhn, playing Devil’s advocate:
> Effective altruists often express surprise that the idea of effective altruism only came about so recently. For instance, my ... |
7203d9a0-f087-4859-9f57-3cde70dfbe2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blueprint for a Brighter Future
Presumably our shared goal is to make possible a comfortable and dignified life for the maximum number of people while treading lightly on the environment, balancing individual rights and status seeking behaviors against the common good (with a view to preventing tragedy of the commons... |
c5081052-4cc2-4f44-9f5c-729c2ee6bc2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5. Uphold Voluntarism: Digital Defense
Security in the physical realm is an extraordinarily hard problem, but an inescapable one. Our civilization now also rests on software infrastructure. Security in the digital realm is now also an inescapable problem. The current software infrastructure is not just insecure, it is... |
9dc604e1-5f4d-4038-9243-eb852a2b751b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drawing on Walls
When I started the bathroom project there was a lot of reason to move quickly: the bathroom wouldn't be usable while I was working on it, and the back bedroom was full of construction stuff. Once I got to the stage where the only thing left to do was plaster and paint the hallway, however, it was less... |
ea331d5f-0d22-4fb4-b9d4-d94227c60296 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Abstraction Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Human intelligence has long been the goal of artificial intelligence. Humans can effectively solve multi-task learning, lifelong learning, transfer learning, few-shot learning, generalization, exploration, prediction, and decision. AI algorithms, on the other hand... |
8f1e7de4-8779-4aeb-b06a-a9102f048c42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning and Internalizing the Lessons from the Sequences
I'm just beginning to go through Rationality: From AI to Zombies. I want to make the most of the lessons contained in the sequences. Usually when I read a book I simply take notes on what seems useful at the time, and a lot of it is forgotten a year later. Any ... |
213e8d86-e15a-45e0-94bb-9c8253b33a18 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Working in AI | Jan Leike, Helen Toner, Malo Bourgon, and Miles Brundage
the theme of the this series of
lightning talks is working in AI and the
possible careers you could have in that
space I'm going to announce each speaker
and they're going to give a short talk
they're going to go sit back down and
then everyone w... |
05f9e0ef-ddb2-42c3-ab30-7b8aa6e98345 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Immortality: A Practical Guide
Immortality: A Practical Guide
Introduction
This article is about how to increase one’s own chances of living forever or, failing that, living for a long time. To be clear, this guide defines death as the long-term loss of one’s consciousness and defines immortality as never-ending lif... |
9bfb31f7-9bc9-4822-a552-a6516af48dcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A bunch of videos for intuition building (2x speed, skip ones that bore you)
did I mention 2x speed? hit play on many, pause on almost as many.
This is a big list of the youtube videos I find myself linking to people most often. These are all from the same playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgx5WuezywJMj... |
771d45d5-c4e5-43bb-b020-7a0891b136e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constructing Goodhart
A recent question from Scott Garrabrant brought up the issue of formalizing Goodhart’s Law. The problem is to come up with some model system where optimizing for something which is almost-but-not-quite the thing you really want produces worse results than not optimizing at all. Considering how en... |
34d31b46-23ff-4fba-9bd3-cf3511533031 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Why Honor Matters
People who live in honor cultures have a sense of purpose and meaning. They dwell in solidarity with their fellows, are courageous in the face of danger, set great store in hospitality, and put the welfare of the group above their own.
Mostly.
I expect when readers from this site think... |
d01ec637-f2e7-408b-b06d-c36c277627b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying to align humans with inclusive genetic fitness
Epistemic status: I think this post points to some important ideas, I think the specific proposals might have flaws and there are likely better ideas. If you’re interested, I would be interested in other proposals, or converting standard alignment proposals into th... |
a63b4d53-5a92-49b7-9d5b-05ed8ce0ec21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Machine Learning Projects on IDA
TLDR
We wrote a 20-page document that explains IDA and outlines potential Machine Learning projects about IDA. This post gives an overview of the document.
What is IDA?
Iterated Distillation and Amplification (IDA) is a method for training ML systems to solve challenging tasks. It wa... |
ea136e13-0e75-400a-aebf-17c714a025d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Better-than-Demonstrator Imitation Learning via Automatically-Ranked Demonstrations
1 Introduction
---------------
Imitation learning is a popular paradigm to teach robots and other autonomous agents to perform complex tasks simply by showing examples of how to perform the task. However, imitation learning methods ... |
b8f339ff-a30f-4399-a96b-ef33e6e43d45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "Do what I mean"?
“Do what I mean” is an alignment strategy in which the AI is programmed to try and do what the human meant by an instruction, rather than following the literal interpretation of the explicit instruction (akin to following the spirit of the law over the letter). This potentially helps with ali... |
f7146974-07f8-453c-bc8d-2232723ba73d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Exploring Hierarchy-Aware Inverse Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
As Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms have become more and more capable, we are increasingly aware of
the limitations of how we specify their goals. While these goals can be hand-crafted
for simple environments, this approac... |
b082aa5f-fbd3-4083-8c06-b24ccff7848f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Game of Antonyms
Towards the end of one of my favourite books, No Longer Human, the protagonist Yozo plays a game with his fiancé and his best friend. The rules of the game are pretty straightforward. Well there is actually one rule technically, but despite that it is a very trying experience. There are no winners... |
195aff3a-2a24-4d61-8048-4a90f3297e9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Puzzling Linearity of COVID-19
Why, recently, for many countries (and the world), are total cases and total deaths increasing in nearly a straight line, on a linear plot? Please post a comment here or there if you have a clue about this puzzle. |
9c02d58b-4b8c-482f-bce4-f23c5245f445 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's actually going on in the "mind" of the model when we fine-tune GPT-3 to InstructGPT?
I posted in the open thread and was told that it would be worth promoting to top level.
cubefox responded with a link to an great explanation of how the fine-tuning is done, which made me realize that my original question was ... |
8e4855af-c41e-43a8-a005-708ee86a988e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forum Assisted Discussion
This post is a record of a meetup I hosted for the NYC rationalist group a few months ago. Its name changed a few times -- for a while it was called "Askhole For Internet Points", and then I decided that was weird, and by increments it changed to "Forum Assisted Discussion".
Here's the philo... |
3add3b66-140d-40d3-ad7a-0aac53c422ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RadVac Commercial Antibody Test Results
Background: Making Vaccine
Results are in from the commercial antibody tests. Both my girlfriend and I came back negative - the test did not detect any Spike antibody response in the blood. This post will talk about how I'm updating based on these results, and the next steps.
... |
a55b31d6-a8d7-4a67-9fba-a1113e226cdc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Stuart Russell - Clarifying AI Alignment
Oh
well it's certainly related I think
often when people hear the phrase value
alignment they think that the the the
goal is to build an AI system whose
values are aligned with those of humans
and I think that leads to two
misconceptions one is that it's the AI
the AI system is... |
bae165da-1a6d-435c-8d9b-e2f8ca87ba86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Newcomblike' Video Game: Frozen Synapse
Disregarding for the moment the question of whether video games are a rational use of one's time:
Frozen Synapse is a turn based strategy combat game that appears to be particularly interesting from a rationalist standpoint. I haven't played it, but according to the reviews, i... |
f8ab69eb-8e16-4e6f-b60a-1a2be3559052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The most important unsolved problems in ethics
Will Crouch has written up a list of the most important unsolved problems in ethics:
The Practical List
1. What’s the optimal career choice? Professional philanthropy, influencing, research, or something more common-sensically virtuous?
2. What’s the opt... |
c302305e-63ad-4126-a7cf-ae2e8e9859cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What is autonomy, and how does it lead to greater risk from AI?
As with many concepts in discussions of AI risk, terminology around what autonomy is, what agency is, and how they might create risks is deeply confused and confusing, and this is leading to people talking past one another. In this case, the seeming binar... |
f272a7b9-fc85-4a9a-b5a3-3af5e90a43e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mass-murdering neuroscience Ph.D. student
A Ph.D student in neuroscience shot at least 50 people at a showing of the new Batman movie. He also appears to have released some kind of gas from a canister. Because of his educational background this person almost certainly knows a lot about molecular biology. How lon... |
84909ca4-96a5-421c-a077-273bad4678c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Two MIRI talks from AGI-11
Thanks in part to the volunteers at [MIRI Volunteers](http://mirivolunteers.org/), we can now release the videos, slides, and transcripts for two talks delivered at [AGI-11](http://agi-conf.org/2011/). Both talks represent joint work by Anna Salamon and Carl Shulman, who were MIRI staff at t... |
b9a359e1-dbb0-420c-a375-f470493943d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational diet: Eating insects?
Given that dairy and meat are so environmentally harmful, perhaps insects are a viable alternative. There are several projects in this regard, for example LIVIN Farms Hive. Does anyone have experiences with this? What are your thoughts? Eating insects will surely come that the expense of... |
086b774c-960b-4aeb-93c8-11c6076691b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Increasingly Manipulative Newsfeed
,
Co-written with Stuart Armstrong
Treacherous turn vs sordid stumble
Nick Bostrom came up with the idea of a treacherous turn for smart AIs.
> while weak, an AI behaves cooperatively. When the AI is strong enough to be unstoppable it pursues its own values.
Ben Goertzel criti... |
ee202fbb-d2f6-4524-ab7c-ef3252a83230 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Nature of Logic
Today's post, The Nature of Logic was originally published on 15 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> What logic actually does is preserve truth in a model. It says that if all of the premises are true, then this conclusion is indeed true. But that's not all that min... |
3a85c474-7b48-4fb8-8c0b-a26412929dff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sign up to be notified about new LW meetups in your area
LessWrong has rolled out a new feature on the user preference pages under "Location":
This is UNCHECKED by default. Also, we don't know by default where you live.
If you think you might want to meet up with other LWers, please input your location and ... |
0733a6fe-4a7d-44ff-8ad4-e61bdc2ce684 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taboo P(doom)
I think it's actively unhelpful to talk about P(doom) because it fails to distinguish between literally everyone dying and humanity failing to capture 99.99% of the value of the future under a total utilitarian view but in practice, everyone who's born lives a very good life. These are very different out... |
87b585e3-a6ba-41b5-816f-8efb2cad241d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emergency learning
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Suppose that we knew that superintelligent AI was to be developed within six months, what would I do?
Well, drinking coffee by the barrel at Miri's emergency research retreat I'd... still probably spend a month looking at things from the meta level, ... |
0da62d69-9492-45c1-923e-f1e88fc1dea0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the most effective anti-tyranny charity?
Specifically: Big people hurting little people. Where can I get my largest bang per buck? I could donate to generic libertarian organizations, but I don't think they fight the generic brand of tyranny I want to fight, and my guess is that most of them are ineffective. |
6cf68a6b-081d-477e-81fd-f9cac3235b8f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison
C*ross-posted to the EA forum [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dpBB24QsnsRnkq5JT/2019-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison).*
Introduction
============
As in [2016](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSot23sAjoZRgaEwa/... |
5bae2196-0daf-4462-bd03-162aaa8a4c21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI
International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 6, Nº5- 100 -- 100 -Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for
Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI
Carla Zoe Cremer1,2*, Jess Whittlest... |
ae5e063c-f418-4723-af35-8ccd49ea4778 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Philosophical Cyborg (Part 1)
*This post is part of the output from AI Safety Camp 2023’s Cyborgism track, run by Nicholas Kees Dupuis - thank you to AISC organizers & funders for their support. Thank you for comments from Peter Hroššo; and the helpful background of conversations about the possibilities (and limits) ... |
a66b0eab-f855-4327-bb26-4b4017a971e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow meetup: communication practice and three short talks
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow meetup: communication practice and three short talks
WHEN: 29 March 2015 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
This Sunday, we'll have our usual meetup, consisting of three tal... |
566d25ec-a27c-44ca-ad94-18ca66e65845 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If we solve alignment, do we die anyway?
Epistemic status: I'm aware of good arguments that this scenario isn't inevitable, but it still seems frighteningly likely even if we solve technical alignment. Clarifying this scenario seems important.
TL;DR: (edits in parentheses, two days after posting, from discussions in ... |
1868e842-5506-44a4-8ed9-b27948dbb72b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speculations on information under logical uncertainty
A strong theory of logical uncertainty might let us say when the results of computations will give “information”, including logical information, about other computations. This might be useful for, among other things, identifying parts of hypotheses that have the sa... |
7474cbe0-df26-4614-b580-ce05cc414e10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Paul Graham 101
> There’s probably no one who knows more about startups than Paul Graham. Having helped thousands of startups through Y Combinator, the startup accelerator he co-founded, there’s a thing or two to learn from his essays. And Graham’s wisdom isn’t limited to startups either; his essays, read b... |
2eb7aea0-5fc3-4d40-8ea6-d42ec7e18781 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book Review] Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective
----------------------------------------
Imagine you arrive at work and your boss tells you that instead of attending your daily meetings about benchmarks and milestones you should just do what you find most interesting. What would you do?
Kenn... |
26010b66-b56e-4496-97d3-9bd88447a10e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Punishing future crimes
Here's an edited version of a puzzle from the book "Chuck Klosterman four" by Chuck Klosterman.
> It is 1933. Somehow you find yourself in a position where you can effortlessly steal Adolf Hitler's wallet. The theft will not effect his rise to power, the nature of WW2, or the Holocaust. There ... |
6bc8dbf5-675c-4104-8038-f8464d0b8110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
I'm interested in the topic of **ideal governance:** what kind of governance system should you set up, if you're starting from scratch and can do it however you want?
Here "you... |
e61f77a2-f55c-4e99-ad73-749b424f593f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Housing Markets, Satisficers, and One-Track Goodhart
There are two parts to what people generally refer to as the "Housing Crisis". One is the simple fact that homes are too expensive. The other part is that building new, expensive houses pushes existing, poorer, renting residents out of communities and scatters them ... |
03315d38-4874-4e2a-93b1-769f00b14cfb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta: A 5 karma requirement to post in discussion
Admins have been doing a decent, timely job taking down the spam that comes up in the Discussion section. But it is an eyesore for any period of time and there seems to be more and more of it. And there is an easy solution: a small karma requirement for discussion sect... |
59196055-f93a-4860-98f6-7ecd0962e471 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Interpretability
*Chris Olah wrote the following topic prompt for the Open Phil 2021 request for proposals on the alignment of AI systems. We (Asya Bergal and Nick Beckstead) are running the Open Phil RFP and are posting each section as a sequence on the Alignment Forum. Although Chris wrote this document, we didn’t w... |
4e5aee62-7f9a-481b-87a0-e9d5fff28d10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Siberian Arctic origins of East Asian psychology
I am the author of a new peer-reviewed APA paper exploring pre-Holocene ecological influences on psychology, specifically Ice Age Siberia pressures on East Asian lineages and if that has affected/retained in their modern day psychological or cultural traits. I find des... |
e50ed34c-b919-4667-8c8c-b772e346f5ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solstice 2022 Roundup
Many of you are already familiar with Rationalist Winter Solstice, our home-grown winter holiday. As the year grows literally dark, we gather in our respective communities to face various forms of darkness together, to celebrate what light human civilization has made, and to affirm ourselves as ... |
2d25bd93-9f41-4a8f-adf1-a1e9272d7c6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to make the best of the most important century?
*Audio version available at [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com/making-the-best-of-the-most-important-century/) (or search Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio")*
Previously in the **["most i... |
750b91ed-2c56-42d9-a589-82fba704ef42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Nov. 3 - Nov. 9, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page be... |
ac3e4077-0085-498f-ae09-b48f7a859ce0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beantown Stomp 2020 Retrospective
It's a bit weird to be writing a retrospective for an event that didn't take place, but there was still a lot of planning and organizing, both before and after the decision to cancel.
The week after Beantown Stomp 2019 finished I started thinking about 2020. I suggested it to the BID... |
e09d8719-cbbf-4b18-a938-74e002cdb965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Life Extension through Diet Modification
Life extension is a relevant topic here, and I was wondering if people are aware of the apparently life-extending effects of calorie restriction (CR) and intermittent fasting (IF). To the extent of my knowledge, this is the best method using currently realized technology that h... |
6ca82f4f-31d3-46a3-bce8-0de58c9abcb3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Cost-effectiveness of student programs for AI safety research
Summary
=======
This post explores the cost-effectiveness of field-building programs for students, specifically the Atlas Fellowship (a rationality program, with some AI safety programming), MLSS (an ML safety course for undergraduates), a top-tier univers... |
edacd253-a776-4637-b584-ceb0f02c719e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Jokes Thread
This is an experimental thread. It is somewhat in the spirit of the Rationality Quotes Thread but without the requirements and with a focus on humorous value. You may post insightful jokes, nerd or math jokes or try out rationality jokes of your own invention.
ADDED: Apparently there has bee... |
2095b781-44f3-492e-bd22-9f4bb7f30652 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Facing the Intelligence Explosion discussion page
I've created a new website for my ebook Facing the Intelligence Explosion:
>
>
> Sometime this century, machines will surpass human levels of intelligence and ability, and the human era will be over. This will be the most important event in Earth’s history, and nav... |
450f118d-7dd9-4030-87fc-934e10f37c86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The expected value of the long-term future
I wrote an article describing a simple model of the long-term future. Here it is:
* in PDF format
* in tex format
Summary:
> A number of ambitious arguments have recently been proposed about the moral importance of the long-term future of humanity, on the scale of millio... |
4482ca75-d5ab-4211-b518-152f1941b880 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possible interest in Louisiana Meetup?
Is there any interest in an (ideally northern) LA meetup? I live in Natchitoches, which would probably not be an ideal location (unless there are people coming from both Shreveport and Alexandria). I know of at least one reader in Baton Rouge; is there anyone else out there? |
bebf42b3-310d-434f-8b5f-288e575bde16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Impacts: Historic trends in technological progress
*AI Impacts just released a collection of posts showing historical progress in a variety of technologies. Rather than cross-posting all of these articles individually, I've collected them in this post.*
[**Historic trends in transatlantic message speed**](https://... |
a92cc802-36a9-4b35-b264-27a2c172314a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to tradeoff utility and agency?
I'm slowly working through a bunch of philosophical criticisms of consequentialism and utilitarianism, kicked off by this book: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Philosophical-Perspectives/Lewens/p/book/9780415422840 (which I don't think is good enough to actually recommend)
One commo... |
a096da32-f10b-4c7f-a3a6-42a12cf74b3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducción al Riesgo Existencial de Inteligencia Artificial
TL;DR: Spanish-Speaking Introduction to AI Safety, covering key concepts like Generality, X-Risks, AI Timelines, and Convergent Instrumental Goals.
Message to the English-Speaking Community (Mensaje para la comunidad angloparlante):
Hey everyone! I'm Davi... |
91da6931-13ba-46c8-97e4-d3d44af992f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forum Weekly Summary (6th - 19th Feb 2023)
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology. Feedback, thoughts, and corrections are welcomed... |
d69ae479-9d60-491c-9829-9c79dfeb76a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Doomsday Argument
First, if you don't already know it, Frequentist Doomsday Argument:
There's some number of total humans. There's a 95% chance that you come after the last 5%. There's been about 60 to 120 billion people so far, so there's a 95% chance that the total will be less than 1.2 to 2.4 trillion.
I... |
5bf5a30c-3bdb-42e1-aecd-f38d2fcfa1a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | On Economics
On Economics
------------
| | |
| --- | --- |
| Like a lot of millenials, especially american millenials, I have spent years of my youth entertaining the notion of anarcho-**communism**. | Like a lot of millenials, especially american millenials, I have spent years of my youth entertaining the notio... |
3763c5a4-11c2-4c5d-b029-f945e01cd440 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Two papers accepted to AGI-15
MIRI has two papers forthcoming in the conference proceedings of [AGI-15](http://agi-conf.org/2015/). The first paper, previously released as a MIRI technical report, is “[Reflective variants of Solomonoff induction and AIXI](https://intelligence.org/files/ReflectiveSolomonoffAIXI.pdf),” ... |
b93fab0f-f2d1-4b07-ba50-644f01323f5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lakshmi's Magic Rope: An Intuitive Explanation of Ramanujan Primes
Imagine a magic rope. It's long, stretchy, and beautiful. Let's take it with us on a trip through the positive integers. We can start wherever you like, and we'll go toward infinity. We put one tip of the magic rope down at our feet, at whichever integ... |
e5080044-1efb-4a5b-8d59-b56345fd77f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with bj9ne
\*\*Interview with bj9ne, on 3/24/22\*\*
\[Note: This transcript has been less edited than other due to language barriers. The interviewee is also younger than typical interviewees.\]
\*\*0:00:00.0 Vael:\*\* Alright. My first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a fe... |
42dd818b-c218-4dd5-82ca-8c3637e3e5cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the reasons to *not* consider reducing AI-Xrisk the highest priority cause?
ETA: I'll be adding things to the list that I think belong there.
I'm assuming a high level of credence in classic utilitarianism, and that AI-Xrisk is significant (e.g. roughly >10%), and timelines are not long (e.g. >50% ASI in <10... |
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