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556d5698-8ad1-4d5a-a999-80d5d9e70bbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Normie response to Normie AI Safety Skepticism
The following post is an adaptation of a comment I posted on the Machine Learning subreddit in response to a post asking whether readers worried about AI Safety/Alignment similarly to Eliezer Yudkowsky (EY). My general impression is that most commenters had not dedicated ... |
90023726-dc6a-42b6-9ccb-3c547c458557 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blood Is Thicker Than Water 🐬
Followup to: Where to Draw the Boundaries?
Without denying the obvious similarities that motivated the initial categorization {salmon, guppies, sharks, dolphins, trout, ...}, there is more structure in the world: to maximize the probability your world-model assigns to your observations ... |
a0dffbaa-26a9-4f33-b17a-1d402ecd48bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What should I teach to my future daughter?
Soon I will have a baby girl and I was thinking that the world is changing very fast and I want to be able to give her some bases for her to learn to deal with this civilisation. From a practical point of view.. i was wondering if I Should teach her some programming language.... |
0dd49838-15ed-4062-afb1-ad7c4bb7cea7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [To Be Revised]Perhaps the Meaning of Life, An Adventure in Pluralistic Morality
Perhaps the Meaning of Life
An Adventure in Pluralistic Morality.
Sept. 18, 2002
"All models are wrong but some are useful."
--George Box
At the core of every controversial issue, institutional dysfunction and inspiring human achievem... |
242e4355-fbbf-447e-a98f-24992462fc6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Limits of Curiosity
In principle, I agree with the notion that it is unforgivable to not want to know, and not want to improve your map to match the territory. However, even the most curious person in the world cannot maintain equal curiosity about all things, and even if they could there are limits on time and e... |
720b23af-285e-470b-bd8a-a662215e98ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread - July 2023
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited. This is a... |
9f2207e0-0b13-4b93-ab74-4e1e395995c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being useless to show effectiveness
From an email discussion (lightly edited):
> I actually think an important related dynamic, in the world at large more than EA, is people favoring actions that are verifiably useless to themselves over ones that are probably useful to others but also maybe useful to themselves. I b... |
1810b754-bdec-48a8-b983-a0fb6861de16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tarski Statements as Rationalist Exercise
Related to: Dissolving the Question, The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition, The Meditation on Curiosity.
> The sentence "snow is white" is true if, and only if, snow is white.
-- A. Tarski
Several days ago I've spent a couple of hours trying to teach my... |
2a97dc26-adf8-4f76-9303-b963bd069522 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Idiohobbies
When you get to know someone, you might ask about their interests or hobbies. From that, you can better decide what activity to invite them to join, or on what topic to have them converse, whenever you meet again.
Any interest or hobby appeals to variously many people. If you have the same interest as the... |
cf94ad09-6db8-41cb-a6e0-ecf6b330274e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oracles, sequence predictors, and self-confirming predictions
My counterfactual Oracle design uses a utility function/reward function in order to train it to give the right predictions. Paul Christiano asked whether the whole utility function approach was necessary, and whether it could be replaced with a simple seque... |
21d57e34-0b29-4428-a775-e0495e0c540d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polling Thread
This is an experiment to use polls to tap into the crowd knowledge probably present on LW.
This is your chance to ask your multiple choice question you always wanted to throw in. Get qualified numeric feedback to your comments. Post fun polls.
There are some rules:
1. Each poll goes into its own top... |
ce947bc1-6fff-4f6a-9a30-defcbfa1569c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming bias guy meme | quickmeme
http://www.quickmeme.com/Overcoming-bias-guy/popular/1/?upcoming
|
c06b095c-3bcc-4461-b556-f3e845aa7415 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 6th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* San Antonio Meetup: 08 November 2015 12:30PM
* San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games: 09 November 2015 06:15PM
* Warsaw November Meetup: 14 Nove... |
a2e89f64-f20d-4d0a-88b5-420763b1872e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Learning how to exert self-control
Here's a link to a short op-ed about some tips to develop self-control. The author get them from talking with Walter Mischel, a researcher who correlated impulsiveness as a child (measured by ability to delay eating sweets) and various metrics as an adult (education attainment... |
8c9c5363-a89f-41a6-8702-44509e0f52b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | STRUCTURE: Reality and rational best practice
This post is part of my Hazardous Guide To Rationality. I don't expect this to be new or exciting to frequent LW people, and I would super appreciate comments and feedback in light of intents for the sequence, as outlined in the above link. Also, note this is a STRUCTURE p... |
525d7818-8d95-41cc-af1a-7673f1e03488 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperative conversational threading
(Cross-posted from my blog.)
Sometimes at LW meetups, I'll want to raise a topic for discussion. But we're currently already talking about something, so I'll wait for a lull in the current conversation. But it feels like the duration of lull needed before I can bring up something ... |
ed37311d-435d-4072-8e27-cf9d6a51645b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Toy Problem: Detective Story Alignment
Suppose I train some simple unsupervised topic model (e.g. [LDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_Dirichlet_allocation)) on a bunch of books. I look through the topics it learns, and find one corresponding to detective stories. The problem: I would like to use the identified ... |
c7e950e3-f90d-44ac-9a25-36e35689dbd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence modules
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This idea, due to Eric Drexler, is to separate out the different parts of an AI into modules. There would be clearly designated pieces, either physical or algorithmic, with this part playing a specific role: this module would contain the motivation,... |
359d5c66-6ce6-4b82-bb40-04473e6651d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will the world hit 10 million recorded cases of COVID-19? If so when?
It wasn't that long ago that I suspect if someone claimed there would be 10 million reported cases of COVID-19 most people would be skeptical. Now, maybe not so much.
It looks like we're heading there -- perhaps much higher.
Doing just a real dirt... |
2ecea0c0-1f53-4d47-9e09-119a7eff1b85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin Social Meetup
WHEN: 15 June 2013 05:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Wuhletal, 12621 Berlin
This is a long-term announcement, we are actually meeting biweekly! The intervening meetups aren't planned as far in advance, please use the mailing list!
Our n... |
9a87f965-a6e4-43b3-b3df-ba14ec4af6cf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Looking for Spanish AI Alignment Researchers
I am fairly new to the AI alignment/safety community and I am looking to step up my game by getting a Ph.D. in the field. Problem is, I have not found any academic AI alignment research activity here in Spain, where I currently live.
I am aware that this community is large... |
d23ce32d-17dd-463b-9da5-13ff127cea45 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "A black car departed from Ben Gurion Airport. The driver, Molly Miriam, handed a clipboard to Vi, who rode shotgun.
"Goldberg Aerospace. They built the solar sailer. They went from concept to manufacture in six months. No human engineering team could do that. They probably an have an AGI," said Vi.
"They do have an AG... |
3bd09494-d052-4a73-85e4-2115b1c561bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Multigate Priors
(Thanks to Evan Hubinger and Nicholas Schiefer for suggestions and discussions around these ideas)
Lately I've been thinking about Training Trace Priors, which are priors over boolean circuits that depend on execution traces sampled from the training distribution. In that post I introduced One-Gate T... |
abf44957-15c6-4168-b80c-264c71d80cf7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seven ways to Improve the Internal Model Principle
This post was written during the Dovetail Research Fellowship. Thanks to Alex, Dalcy, and Jose for reading and commenting on the draft.
This post assumes that you are familiar with the Abstract Internal Model Principle (IMP). In a previous post, I wrote what I hope i... |
31a22186-ae95-474f-9525-397f265a5e05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Working through a small tiling result
tl;dr it seems that you can get basic tiling to work by proving that there will be safety proofs in the future, rather than trying to prove safety directly.
"Tiling" here roughly refers to a state of affairs in which we have a program that is able to prove itself safe to run. I'l... |
f994034e-96f0-4b02-b596-8cac9b3ba262 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Different way classifiers can be diverse
*With thanks to Lee Sharkey and Michael Cohen for the conversations that lead to these ideas.*
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xujLGRKFLKsPCTimd/p/oCWk8QpjgyqbFHKtK), I talked about how we could train classifiers on the same classification problem - a set of ... |
aa72428f-5e77-4253-907e-940595539b75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AvE: Assistance via Empowerment
This might be relevant to the AI safety crowd. Key quote:
"Our key insight is that agents can assist humans without inferring their goals or limiting their autonomy by instead increasing the human’s controllability of their environment – in other words, their ability to affect the envi... |
144d3a8a-389d-40cd-ba11-5fa1fa143175 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Compute Trends Across Three eras of Machine Learning
<https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924>
What do you need to develop advanced Machine Learning systems? Leading companies don’t know. But they are very interested in figuring it out. They dream of replacing all these pesky workers with reliable machines who take no leave... |
83bb7405-9765-4485-820d-c3da3b8ec9cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Many-Worlds Interpretation and Death with Dignity
The Many-Worlds Interpretation is an interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, that says that the wave function never collapses - every possible universe exists, every quantum coin flip falls both ways. As far as I'm aware, this interpretation is usually (a) regarded to be ... |
e1f86251-e111-4f34-9ab7-20003e8994c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I ran the zoo
(I was musing about what it means for an incoherent lump of meat to "have preferences," and thought it might be illuminating to consider what I'd do if I were, approximately, God. It, uh, hasn't been illuminating yet, but it's been entertaining and still seems at least potentially fruitful.)
Prob... |
94ac7ce6-b919-46e6-8d8b-a7ce60efb7b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dragon Ball's Hyperbolic Time Chamber
> A time dilation tool from an anime is discussed for its practical use on Earth; there seem surprisingly few uses and none that will change the world, due to the severe penalties humans would incur while using it, and basic constraints like Amdahl's law limit the scientific uses.... |
aef89334-8c41-4645-93ac-9713c68ed39d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Japan AI Alignment Conference
[Conjecture](https://www.conjecture.dev/) and [ARAYA](https://www.araya.org/en/) are hosting and organizing the first Japan AI Alignment Conference. The conference will take place in Tokyo, Japan on March 11 and 12. Details about the event can be found [here](https://jac2023.ai/). This ev... |
74821d6b-3a5a-4e5d-ac67-075f7e1cfd15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards a solution to the alignment problem via objective detection and evaluation
Thanks to Arun Jose, Joseph Bloom, and Evan Hubinger for discussions/feedback.
This work was primarily carried out during SERI MATS under Evan Hubinger’s mentorship.
Introduction
We explore whether the ability to detect and evaluate... |
aecf3f0d-e42e-4d6a-b02e-bcdbeac43193 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | H+Pedia opens projects and editorial portal
|
c6a34746-cfc7-43d8-bdf2-88dcfa119681 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Previously in series: Whining-Based Communities "But there is a reason why many of my students have achieved great things; and by that I do not mean high rank in the Bayesian Conspiracy. I expected much of them, and they came to expect much of themselves." —Jeffreyssai Among the failure modes of martial arts dojos, I ... |
3ed62c7a-1809-4ad8-a2d7-1dcc1467376e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (tentatively) Found 600+ Monosemantic Features in a Small LM Using Sparse Autoencoders
Using a sparse autoencoder, I present evidence that the resulting decoder (aka "dictionary") learned 600+ features for Pythia-70M layer_2's mid-MLP (after the GeLU), although I expect around 8k-16k features to be learnable.
Dictio... |
33b20837-bbbf-4e33-bb5f-035157584432 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Alignment, Goals, & The Gut-Head Gap: A Review of Ngo. et al
If someone asks whether I know of anyone who carefully examines the arguments for AI x-risk, my answer is a pretty resounding ‘Ngo’.
Richard Ngo, specifically. Among [other](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ) [cool](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... |
beda04e5-89cd-4613-bb19-d7b6f101d23f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fourth Buenos Aires Less Wrong meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Fourth Buenos Aires Less Wrong meetup
WHEN: 05 January 2013 03:00:00PM (-0300)
WHERE: GarageLab, Roseti 1380, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
This will be our fourth Buenos Aires LessWrong meetup.
On this occasion, we will be discussing Cohe... |
ff028453-e969-4bcf-a0bb-42720d65b3bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Cabaret
I'd heard rumors that some leading Bayesians had achieved rank in the Bardic Conspiracy. But I wasn't aware that every two years, some of the world's top statisticians hold a Bayesian Cabaret, full of songs, dances, and skits about Bayesian probability theory.
...no, really. Really. I think my favori... |
160b8466-4af7-4eaa-9c4e-d84585db4eb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem
Here is Wikipedia's description of Newcomb's problem:
> The player of the game is presented with two boxes, one transparent (labeled A) and the other opaque (labeled B). The player is permitted to take the contents of both boxes, or just the opaque box B. Box A contains a vi... |
4304273c-5f02-4106-8485-c8a051c079ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do beneficial TDT trades for humanity concretely look like?
Who do you think you're trading with and why?
What explicitly is being traded?
What mechanism enables both parties to trust the other?
I am quite pessimistic TDT related trades. Not because I think it isn't a real thing, but because I think the kinds of... |
36edfe6c-9975-4133-847c-cde9a8ef3512 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
WHEN: 19 February 2017 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg 4th floor, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
No parking restrictions on weekends, so park wh... |
033987a1-d3df-4c84-b7af-2b953e83c374 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Meetup
WHEN: 22 September 2013 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Helsinki Music Centre, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
The theme of this meetup will be strategic thinking, with Kaj Sotala leading the discussion.
We'll meet in the cafe at Helsinki Music Centre.... |
aa51848a-f7cd-4246-927f-45b8036d1104 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It’s Probably Not Lithium
This post has been recorded as part of the LessWrong Curated Podcast, and can be listened to on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Libsyn, and more.
----------------------------------------
A Chemical Hunger (a), a series by the authors of the blog Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) that has been received p... |
d0cd06df-1996-49c7-a17c-b97c40b224f2 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post430
This is a rough write-up of ideas by Ryan Greenblatt. The core ideas are his and mistakes are mine. Thanks to him, Buck Shlegeris and to Aghyad Deeb for feedback on the draft of this post. One way to use scheming AIs is to train them to imitate humans. When does imitation robustly avoid frequent and intent... |
d91543b9-32cd-43b3-81f8-b685e3104087 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Solving hard AI planning instances using curriculum-driven deep reinforcement learning.
1 Introduction
---------------
Deterministic, fully observable planning is a key domain for artificial intelligence. In its full generality, AI planning encompasses general theorem proving, where proofs can be viewed as plans le... |
12a355cc-f1b6-411d-bc74-0cc9a5abf8f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the best Siderea posts?
I think the Asshole Filters post is underrated and everyone should read and share it. I also like the post about economic class vs social class. Do the posts only get worse from there? What are the top 5 or so? |
821ddef8-7d9b-4fc8-9a1a-1d2284261282 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamentally Fuzzy Concepts Can't Have Crisp Definitions:
Cooperation and Alignment vs Math and Physics
Epistemic status: I describe an argument that seems plausible, but could also be entirely off. IE, low confidence.
Summary of the Argument
Certain concepts (like "cooperation" or "human values") might be fundamen... |
4ce2a04f-2bd6-4e8b-9c59-1c1d122fd228 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lagrangian duality for constraints on expectations
Summary: It's possible to set up an zero-sum game between two agents so that, in any Nash equilibrium, one agent picks a policy to optimize a particular objective subject to some constraints on expected features of the state resulting from the policy. This seems poten... |
290050ee-6340-4c44-9e77-d4b687cdd476 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Uncertainty as Probability
This post is a long answer to this comment by cousin_it:
> Logical uncertainty is weird because it doesn't exactly obey the rules of probability. You can't have a consistent probability assignment that says axioms are 100% true but the millionth digit of pi has a 50% chance of being... |
a033f5c3-f6c5-4434-9e9f-83b161904cca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance"
Two and a half years ago, I wrote Extrapolating GPT-N performance, trying to predict how fast scaled-up models would improve on a few benchmarks. One year ago, I added PaLM to the graphs. Another spring has come and gone, and there are new models to add to the graphs... |
a9bfd542-25ad-468a-948d-fa224f6223b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Is the rise of killer machines closer than we think?.
The New Fisker Ocean
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Ocean.
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Is the rise of killer machines closer than
we think?
British computer scientist and world-leading AI expert
Stuart Russell says we urgently need to understand... |
b526e6b0-76fc-4af3-80ee-754a87d2f3f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Levels of AI Self-Improvement
[new draft for commenting, full formatted version is here: https://goo.gl/c5UfdX]
Abstract: This article presents a model of self-improving AI in which improvement could happen on several levels: hardware, learning, changes in code, in goals system, creating virtual organization, and... |
575dddd4-c05f-436e-b9de-68ca56504f8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Biology 101 Introduction: Constraining Anticipation
Since the responses to my recent inquiry were positive, I've rolled up my sleeves and gotten started. Special thanks to badger for eir comment in that thread, as it inspired the framework used here.
My intent in the upcoming posts is to offer a practical overv... |
3ae76a01-52e6-4452-accf-779f46f4d8bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ASoT] Some ways ELK could still be solvable in practice
Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top.
This post is a followup to my earlier post.
If ELK is imposs... |
a3e10e1d-d3bc-43da-b05f-643ec4929f42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Follow-up to: Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence
----------------------------------------
Somehow, someone is going to horribly misuse all the advice that is contained within this book.
Nothing I know how to say will prevent this, and all I can do is advise you no... |
5ef9474c-8852-4a60-89d6-a62c3baab763 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Fundamental Question of Group Rationality
What do you believe because others believe it, even though your own evidence and reasoning ("impressions") point the other way?
(Note that answers like "quantum chromodynamics" don't count, except in the unlikely case that you've seriously tried to do your own physics, and ... |
527b96b2-94fc-4b86-a26c-32c47b624e8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calibrated estimation of workload
I've been using a spreadsheet to track my work in various ways for about 10 years. There are some fun benefits to it that I want to share. It has really helped me improve my calibration and precision in an important area - planning my workload - and want to encourage others to try som... |
718279b1-b7a5-459a-95f3-e8e405535db2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is DeepMind's safety team working on?
DeepMind has both a [machine learning safety team focused on near-term risks](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/pushmeet-kohli-deepmind-safety-research/#long-term-agi-safety-research), and an alignment team working on risks from artificial general intelligence. The alig... |
712146a1-f805-4c7c-bb14-fddea612938a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cliffnotes to Craft of Research parts I, II, and III
supported by CEEALAR
I happened to glance over at the CEEALAR bookshelf one day and saw a book called Craft of Research. Craft of Research is a book by 5 english professors that tries to provide a field-agnostic guide to, well, doing research. I previously shared m... |
36859136-eaed-4661-baf4-ec905a4fae78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Squiggle: Technical Overview
This piece is meant to be read after Squiggle: An Overview. It includes technical information I thought best separated out for readers familiar with coding. As such, it's a bit of a grab-bag. It explains the basic internals of Squiggle, outlines ways it could be used in other programming ... |
0fb941aa-422c-4de3-8913-882c6b064b57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Characterizing the superintelligence which we are concerned about
What is this “superintelligence” we are concerned about? In writing articles on FAI topics, I took the easy way out and defined the focus of attention as an AI that can far outdo humans in all areas. But this just a useful shortcut, not what we are real... |
213a6f73-511b-43de-a631-e2367e38ecfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I became a person who wakes up early
This is an extended anecdotal description of a life change that honestly still surprises me; I went from the classic internet nerd who stays up until 3 and sleeps until noon, to a person who reliably goes to bed before 10pm and wakes up at 6:30am every morning. This didn't happ... |
cdbb726f-03ad-4b22-8a55-944b253172e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Early 2022 Paper Round-up (Part 2)
Last week, I talked about six recent papers from our group, and discussed the first two in detail. This week, I'll discuss the remaining four. They fall into two categories: robustness, and science of ML.
Robustness
By robustness, I mean both making systems less likely to fail in n... |
2314b2d1-e0d1-4e17-9855-3b5d2015ef2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can quantised autoencoders find and interpret circuits in language models?
Executive Summary
* I try vector-quantised autoencoders (VQ-VAEs) as an alternative compression scheme of transformer activations (as opposed to something like a sparse autoencoder).
* Whilst people have danced around this idea before, disc... |
04ad2534-ba3d-417a-a55f-3b12ed21a4f2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is there much need for frontend engineers in AI alignment?
How important is visualization w.r.t. the interpretability (or broader alignment) problem? Specifically, is there need+opportunity for impact of frontend engineers in that space?
Additional context:
I’ve got 10 years of experience in software engineeri... |
f80061cd-1dfd-4cb9-a4a4-9b9773136538 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is your recommended statistics textbook for a beginner?
I have done a basic undergrad probability course (which used Ghahramani’s book.). My own university uses Wonnacott for statistics. (Which seems a tad dated.) What’s your recommendation? I want to use the statistics eventually for ML. Please state your reason... |
1e15f4d3-7270-4981-bf76-57979a266648 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 332: Mini-AI; safety through evals; Facebook releases a RLHF dataset
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](https://importai.substack.com/subscri... |
7536abea-ad2b-4d4d-a3e1-32e9c45e8011 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can I restore my previous account?
I'm now logged in, for the first time since the new LessWrong has been operating. Ages ago my old account (Stirling_Westrup) simply stopped working, and I couldn't log in to post a message saying there was a problem. I ended up making a second account, but never got any responses... |
ff04757b-fa8c-4b0a-96ba-f8065af9180f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Hypotheses about Finding Knowledge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements
*Epistemic status: my own thoughts I've thought up in my own time. They may be quite or very wrong! I am likely not the first person to come to these ideas. All of my main points here are just hypotheses which I've come to by the reasoning stated bel... |
0c46e5c3-0a66-4c9b-9d23-481742096174 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Updated Deference is not a strong argument against the utility uncertainty approach to alignment
**Thesis:** The [problem of fully updated deference](https://arbital.com/p/updated_deference/) is not a strong argument against the viability of the assistance games / utility uncertainty approach to AI (outer) alignment.
... |
363b953d-ec00-4b8c-a2ec-dceed367999b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Calculus of Nash Equilibria
Now that we know a bit about derivatives, it's time to use them to find dominant strategies and Nash equilibria. It helps if the reader is familiar with Nash equilibria already.
Prisoner's dilemma
The payoff matrix of the Prisoner's dilemma can be as follows:
We can see that the payo... |
bf75bc0f-e548-4b9f-a2c7-a0e4f52faa18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments
|
bb468bce-4549-41f5-baca-c84c03327b52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Lyon
This summary was posted to LW Main on June 28th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* [Lyon, France] LW Meetup in Lyon: 03 July 2013 06:00PM
Other irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Br... |
e1d1a89d-5f88-4ca6-860b-da45cd3b5723 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Containing the AI... Inside a Simulated Reality
So I just finished the paper by Yampolskiy called "Uncontrollability of AI" and it makes for a compelling read. In particular, I was happy to finally see something that explicitly mentions the ludicrous folly of believing it possible to make an AI conform to "human value... |
9152f7a6-c7d6-4a88-b63f-7f64bc0913a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | active reward learning from multiple teachers.
Active Reward Learning from Multiple Teachers
Peter Barnett1,*, Rachel Freedman1, Justin Svegliato1and Stuart Russell1
1Center for Human-Compatible AI, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Abstract
Reward learning algorithms utilize human feedback to infer a ... |
fb0deb6e-fd13-40b8-966f-7b2c36837505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Australia-wide Online Hangout - August
Discussion article for the meetup : Australia-wide Online Hangout - August
WHEN: 09 August 2015 07:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Australia
See you at the online hangout. From wherever you are.
Link to be posted about 10 minutes before hand because they expire otherwise.
We... |
ce99d0e1-0036-4582-80cc-cfe542ea9c62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reminder: Weekly LW meetings in NYC
Hey everyone. This is just a reminder that there are weekly Less Wrong/Overcoming Bias meetups in New York City. Meetups are usually held on Tuesday at 7 PM, in lower Manhattan (south of Central Park). If you're interested, more information is available if you sign up for the overco... |
6f4abac5-785a-45da-8dfe-d2cbc1ec4140 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 90: Roles, Pt 1
A simple Innervate from the Headmaster had awakened Fred Weasley, followed by a preliminary healing Charm for a broken arm and cracked ribs. Harry's voice had distantly told the Headmaster about the Transfigured acid inside the troll's head (Dumbledore had looked down over the side of the terra... |
f4f5d500-8753-4668-b658-d69c1cb6114a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | OpenAI and other news
![open-ai[1]](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/open-ai1.png)We’re only 11 days into December, and this month is shaping up to be a momentous one.
On December 3, the University of Cambridge partnered with the University of Oxford, Imperial College London, and UC Berkeley to lau... |
db24c366-5f6e-4032-9861-b2f6f52192a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalists should beware rationalism
Rationalism is most often characterized as an epistemological position. On this view, to be a rationalist requires at least one of the following: (1) a privileging of reason and intuition over sensation and experience, (2) regarding all or most ideas as innate rather than adventi... |
e3f92173-61cd-4dcb-b03d-82524c1250fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video and Transcript of Presentation on Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI
In March 2022, I gave a presentation about existential risk from power-seeking AI, as part a lecture series hosted by Harvard Effective Altruism. The presentation summarized my report on the topic. With permission from the organizers, I'm p... |
676e4584-db63-4fd4-92bb-36d48b88c776 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Proofs Section 1.1 (Initial results to LF-duality)
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: n... |
45a1ec74-9328-4d99-8be8-44c8c8fc68e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts
I've been thinking how I can improve my accuracy predicting events of personal interest (e.g., "Will my landlord get the washing machine fixed within the next two weeks", or "Will my parent die this year" for a more extreme example). Betting markets will not help me w... |
16543a0b-3a94-4bc5-8f53-e3d2f4f122c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI Timelines in Governance: Different Strategies for Different Timeframes
Summarization Table
TimelinesPre-2030Post-2030ExpectationsAGI will be built by an organization that’s already trying to build it (85%)
Some governments will be in the race (80%)
Compute will still be centralized at the time AGI is develope... |
a1ac8c48-625a-4f3e-b68d-19439b378a9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty
In this post I'd like to construct an extension to the Sleeping Beauty problem which is unsolvable from an thirder/SIA perspective. The core of the construction is having the number of wakings Beauty will experience follow a distribution with an infinite mean. Thi... |
bbf0bc1e-5ec3-4116-9415-a33e4cd61bb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do we know about how much protection COVID vaccines provide against long COVID?
None |
b5585da3-a0fb-497e-8022-e47eff12f87c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Duels & D.Sci March 2022: Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a follow-up to last week's D&D.Sci scenario: if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
There is a web interactive here where you can test your submission against your rival's deck (or against a couple ot... |
ca68c37d-cf8f-4e72-868b-4571d48be20e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do we like stories?
Some people like music. Others like visual art. Yet regardless of difference in age, gender and cultural backgrounds, everyone likes hearing a story. Whether it’s fantasized ‘Harry Potter’, romantic ‘Pride and Prejudice’, tragic 'Hamlet', or a beloved classic 'Journey to The West', man and wome... |
7a8eb78a-3556-4d69-8294-e1c282da7a23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Curing Sleep: My Experiences Doing Cowboy Science
Epistemic status: Subjective report describing youthful exuberance. The actual experimentation part of this was very badly executed.
In light of the recent homemade peptide vaccine, this is a writeup of my experiences in insufflating internet chemicals.
This happ... |
9d919115-31da-4bb8-a99a-3bbc06f12f1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why was the AI Alignment community so unprepared for this moment?
> Our epistemic rationality has probably gotten way ahead of our instrumental rationality
>
> -Scott Alexander
>
> A Lesswrong Crypto autopsy
This is a question post:
Why was the AI Alignment community so unprepared for engaging with the wider w... |
9ed56ea8-bc88-4b72-9bd5-d5dbccaf005a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 8 - Assistance Games with Dylan Hadfield-Menell
[Google Podcasts link](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9heHJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/NTU4OTk4MTctNGY4NS00OWRkLThkYjMtMzdlMmVmNGJmZjZi)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Her... |
7ee2ab83-4f80-404e-bc95-83d9f881dfd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Favor of Niceness, Community, and Civilization
[Content warning: Discussion of social justice, discussion of violence, spoilers for Jacqueline Carey books.]
[Edit 10/25: This post was inspired by a debate with a friend of a friend on Facebook who has since become somewhat famous. I’ve renamed him here to “Andrew C... |
0af53bf0-a06b-4444-9923-6c1d91944579 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of The Engines of Cognition
Introduction[1]
For those who read my review of the first Lesswrong collection of essays, A Map that Reflects the Territory (see here for my review), this intro will give you a sense of what the Klingons call nlb’poH, the French call Déjà vu, and the English call Déjà vu.
Less Wrong... |
56309ce5-4bb6-4c4e-9271-81367a0c5103 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A short dialogue on comparability of values
Q: Are all of a person's values comparable with each other? For example, is a candlelit dinner comparable to a sunset walk on a beach?
A: Of course. You can ask the person to choose between these two things. Their answer will give you information about what they value more.... |
dee396e4-795a-423a-bc04-031936302d11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Post-fundraiser update
We concluded our [2016 fundraiser](https://intelligence.org/2016/09/16/miris-2016-fundraiser/) eleven days ago. Progress was slow at first, but our donors came together in a big way in the final week, nearly doubling our final total. In the end, donors raised **$589,316** over six weeks, making ... |
976f740b-fcff-4547-9eec-992d8f7c8c96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Toy Model of Hingeyness
This is a crosspost from the Effective Altruism forum
Epistemic status: Attempt to clarify a vague concept. This should be seen as a jumping of point and not as a definitive model.
Definition of Hingeyness
> The Hinge of History refers to a time when we have an unusually high amount of in... |
582597fe-947c-4e45-ad2b-bcaee9401771 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A terrifying variant of Boltzmann's brains problem
I am new to this forum even though I have read a lot on the subject of boltzmann's brains and have come to a terrifying conclusion, the classic argument which for example Sean Carroll used, "The cognitive instability" (https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.00850), is not enough ... |
cb805221-0fb5-4bbf-a506-d53fbe3ad328 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR-run MIRI Summer Fellows program: July 7-26
CFAR will be running a three week summer program this July for MIRI, designed to increase participants' ability to do technical research into the superintelligence alignment problem.
The intent of the program is to boost participants as far as possible in four skills:
... |
7ad385df-3862-4a96-912b-a4f5db35f276 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Genies and Wishes in the context of computer science
Using computers to find a cure
What it could be like to make a program which would fulfill our wish to "cure cancer"? I'll try to briefly present the contemporary mainstream CS perspective on this.
Here's how "curing cancer using AI technologies" could realistica... |
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