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54dfdcf5-79ba-4289-8eb4-927c76e24fc1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Empathic Deep Q-Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Historically, reinforcement learning (RL; (Sutton et al., [1998](#bib.bib21))) research has largely focused on solving clearly-specified benchmark tasks. For example,
the ubiquitous Markov decision process (MDP) framework cleaves the world into four we... |
7ff0f6b0-aa8d-436e-8bff-7be8ca46bfae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Can we get AGI by scaling up architectures similar to current ones, or are we missing key insights?
It's an open question whether we can create artificial general intelligence (AGI) simply by increasing the amount of compute used by our current models ("scaling"), or if AGI would require fundamentally new model archit... |
566cd0a7-588a-4d3c-8165-3884f8ec0e30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | X-risks are a tragedies of the commons
* Safety from Xrisk is a common good: We all benefit by making it less likely that we will all die.
* In general, people are somewhat selfish, and value their own personal safety over that of another (uniform) randomly chosen person.
* Thus individuals are not automatically pr... |
65f94e50-5fa5-4d69-811b-6ec94bb02096 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cycles (a short story by Claude 3.7 and me)
Content warning: this story is AI generated slop.
The kitchen hummed with automated precision as breakfast prepared itself. Sarah watched the robotic arms crack eggs into a bowl while the coffee brewed to perfect temperature. Through the window, she could see the agricultur... |
0af9bb93-30a0-40f5-8514-47176bfcde41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | o3 Turns Pro
You can now have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem. That’s o3-pro.
Should you have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem, if you are paying the $200/month subscription price for ChatGPT Pro? Should you pay the $200, or the order of magnitude markup over o3 to use o3-pro in the API... |
8b1791b6-a53b-435a-b1ef-8224d45aa9ad | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Highlights from MIRI's year-end strategy update:MIRI executive director Nate Soares reports that the "new research directions" we initiated in 2017 have "at this point, largely failed, in the sense that neither Eliezer nor I have sufficient hope in it for us to continue focusing our main efforts there. [...] We are cu... |
1e31d59e-256b-4528-89cd-fee0d8b6db00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doers or doings?
A girl recently invited me to a public lecture she was running with Helen Caldicott, the famous anti-nuclear advocate. Except the girl couldn’t remember the bit after ‘famous’. When I asked her, she narrowed it down to something big picture related to the environment. Helen’s achievements were obvious... |
b4d41536-7617-4f2a-8fdf-a3ff51f4bb75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI4Science: The Hidden Power of Neural Networks in Scientific Discovery
AI4Science has the potential to surpass current frontier models (text, video/image, and sound) by several magnitudes. While some may arrive at similar conclusions through empirical evidence, we derive this insight from our "Deep Manifold" and prov... |
5fab1c54-7c25-43c1-8920-f6fcd0e606a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we dropping the ball on Recommendation AIs?
> "We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us."
> — Marshall McLuhan
TL;DR: This post is a two-page introduction to risks associated with recommendation AI. The negative externalities of recommendation AI seem neglected, and there might be comparatively eff... |
c4c214bd-d03e-4705-b8b7-9c28780617c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimising under arbitrarily many constraint equations
Say we have a multivariate function to optimise, like f=x2+y2+z2, under some constraints, like g1=x2+y2−z and g2=y+z−1, both to equal zero.
The common method is that of Lagrange multipliers.
1. Add a variable λ for each constraint function — here, we'll use λ1 ... |
eec6be4c-99bf-4767-9e19-91d8beb40f38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Post version 2 (please read this ONLY if your last name beings with l–z)
Note: I am testing two versions of my new post on rationality and romance.
Please upvote, downvote, or non-vote the below post as you normally would if you saw it on the front page (not the discussion section), but do not vote on the other v... |
8e891ce8-2980-45e6-929e-9ee8c3c363c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Löbian obstacle
|
4e5d179a-2d0a-484a-8658-1e5b71beaf21 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post2974
Outline : After a short discussion on the relationship between wireheading and reward hacking, I show why checking the continuity of a sensor function could be useful to detect wireheading in the context of continuous RL. Then, I give an example that adopts the presented formalism. I conclude with some ob... |
6d64e1d3-e010-4af5-85f7-90feea1b36dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Longmont Colorado Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Longmont Colorado Meetup
WHEN: 09 August 2012 07:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: Luna Cafe, 800 Coffman St, Longmont, CO 80501
Trying a new location, as an experiment.
All Denver and Boulder Less Wrongers are welcome to join the Fort Collins group for co... |
9ad6c1ee-2db9-42c5-9c40-11912679ad5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defrag conference scholarships
http://www.defragcon.com/2011/general/defrag-announcements/
Eric Nolin of the Defrag conference is looking to organize a scholarship fund for high school girls who want to study computer science in university.
Till that's in place, they're funding scholarships for people to attend the ... |
4ba6e442-1595-4683-bcee-c17167ad22fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Universal Eudaimonia
The AI is here. And it's Friendly. But due to moral uncertainty, its value function prohibits any major intervention in existing human societies.
The AI's nanobots get to work. They replace the South Pacific garbage patch with a new continent--Eudaimonia, a rat park for humans. All basic needs ar... |
30f98227-89ff-49f7-a610-f6036a47b323 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This is a draft
You're not supposed to be able to see this. |
f7463c2b-c8d3-4134-9bd7-6bd61fca8b48 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Some Intuitions Around Short AI Timelines Based on Recent Progress
*tldr: I give some informal evidence and intuitions that point toward AGI coming soon. These include thinking about how crazy the last year has been, beliefs from those in major AI labs, and progress on MMLU.*
Intro
=====
This post is intended to be ... |
8f94dbce-a71f-4c1a-9b01-e651c54ca502 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Updating Thoughts on AI policy
My conversation on policy and AI with Richard was over a year ago, so for Daniel Kokotajlo's LW writing day I thought I’d write down new thoughts I’ve thought since then (warning: it's pretty rambly). I've structured the post around what what I did that lead to my updated thoughts.
... |
b13d5d82-2ba3-4971-af7c-387c9d581cb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
WHEN: 10 April 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Enid A. Haupt Garden
Note: The meetup location has changed for this week.
We will be gathering at the Enid A. Haupt Garden (outside the south entrance to th... |
bd36e059-648f-4e5c-b1d2-1da78a0c4b22 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is FAR AI's research strategy?
[FAR AI](https://far.ai/) is a research group with a mission focused on ensuring that AI systems are both trustworthy and beneficial to society. Their research strategy is centered around four main directions:
1. **ML System Vulnerability** studies how robust machine learning syste... |
f7295cc8-17be-40d8-adaa-5f8bf5bb3017 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: The AI Does Not Hate You
Book review: The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World, by Tom Chivers.
This book is a sympathetic portrayal of the rationalist movement by a quasi-outsider. It includes a well-organized explanation of why some people expect tha AI w... |
bc566db7-79f2-4ea4-89aa-1349e2d490d1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Final Report of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI, 2021)
Quoting from [Rohin Shah's Alignment Newsletter](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/29QmG4bQDFtAzSmpv/an-141-the-case-for-practicing-alignment-work-on-gpt-3-and#____AI_GOVERNANCE_) (with light editing):
> In the US, the National S... |
5682c318-f746-44fa-95a7-33a2357de1e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 14
"As for the little green men... they don't want us to know about them, so they refrain from making contact... then they do silly aerobatics displays within radar range of military bases... with their exterior lights on... if that's extraterrestrial intelligence, I'm not sure I want to know what e... |
f97c325d-4616-4015-817b-fc2bb617e6a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is Redwood Research's strategy?
[Redwood Research](https://www.redwoodresearch.org/) focuses on interpreting and aligning current AI systems, identifying methods that seem promising, and considering theoretical arguments for why we might expect those methods to continue to work even as systems become much more in... |
bf71d339-1fa7-425c-97e6-3e76d12676be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rooting for Moments, Not Jerseys. Another Approach to Enjoying Sports
Epistemic Status: Somewhere between a personal life‑hack and a tentative general theory. I’ve been running this experiment for five NBA seasons; dozens of predictions‑market positions, numerous group‑chat quarrels. I am reasonably confident there’s ... |
fe3f6c8a-dad0-4cac-b064-0819513acc3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | HP:MOR and the Radio Fallacy
No plot spoilers here, just wanted to flag a bit of poor reasoning that shows up in Chapter 39:
> I shouldn't have believed it even for all of thirty seconds! Because if people had souls there wouldn't be any such thing as brain damage, if your soul could go on speaking after your whole b... |
3bac0073-e160-40b8-9a04-034cbd73c84a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Get paid to train your rationality (update)
Previous: http://lesswrong.com/lw/6ya/link_get_paid_to_train_your_rationality/
The IARPA-run forecasting contest remains ongoing. Season 1 has largely finished up, and groups are preparing for season 2. Season 1 participants like myself get first dibs, but http://goo... |
22bc8495-616a-4035-9628-f3eba9d82ea0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there anything that can stop AGI development in the near term?
Assume that short timeline arguments are correct. (For previous discussion, see "What if AGI is near?".)
Some possible ideas:
* A multilateral, international governmental/legal agreement to halt GPU production or ban AI research
* Surveillance sys... |
34a4ebf0-dc7b-4a72-a35e-a6fa47fe4b2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are your cruxes for imprecise probabilities / decision rules?
An alternative to always having a precise distribution over outcomes is imprecise probabilities: You represent your beliefs with a set of distributions you find plausible.
And if you have imprecise probabilities, expected value maximization isn't well... |
b85c2c54-4689-4c52-a818-a2df306ad2fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Moderation, Balance, & Harmony
This post examines the virtues of moderation, balance, and harmony. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn more. I hope it helps people who want to know more about these virtues and how to nurture them.
I also use this opportunity to go on a (related) ... |
fd7c6865-1d76-4fd9-9dd3-f5c52fa8b3b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Twin Cities, MN (for real this time)
Discussion article for the meetup : Twin Cities, MN (for real this time)
WHEN: 15 April 2012 01:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Purple Onion Coffeeshop, 1301 University Avenue Southeast, Minneapolis, MN
[This meetup is really being put together by Helloses, but while his karma i... |
9d6839c1-9e51-4e89-859e-26c4317c8950 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Ethan Caballero–Scale Is All You Need
A bunch of people at Google
said, yeah, we have language
models that are way bigger than GPT-3,
but we just don’t put them in papers.
The DeepMind language models papers,
they were a year old when they finally
put them out on arXiv or whatever.
When Ilya tweeted the conscio... |
787d95a2-b031-4f9c-8d9d-e2b0e0b9d25f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bragging Thread July 2015
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thing you're ... |
2e3dcd58-bfce-4a72-a958-19901a694ac7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Transferring Domain Knowledge with an Adviser in Continuous Tasks
1 Introduction
---------------
Conventional reinforcement learning approaches have been limited to domains with low dimensional discrete state and action spaces or fully observable state and action spaces, where handcrafted features are heavily used.... |
7aff3721-7520-4fb8-b93e-cd09017ebb46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brigaded Rounds
A group of round singers were interested in trying out the bucket brigade singing program, and I realized that with a small tweak it could support rounds directly. We just needed to write audio both at the place it belonged to, and an appropriate distance into the future. This would let everyone hear e... |
021de1e8-d6b0-4525-ab75-9cb934d7d068 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Decoupling Representation Learning from Reinforcement Learning.
1 Introduction
---------------
Ever since the first fully-learned approach succeeded at playing Atari games from screen images (Mnih et al., [2015](#bib.bib12 "Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning")), standard practice in deep reinfo... |
df39d447-8841-4411-a275-2f7e629eb491 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | "Taking AI Risk Seriously" – Thoughts by Andrew Critch
I wrote this several months ago for LessWrong, but it seemed useful to have crossposted here.
It's a writeup of several informal conversations I had with Andrew Critch (of the [Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative](http://existence.org)) about what considerations... |
66d84aef-3f32-4da1-b701-3915100c4814 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI alignment problem in socio-technical systems from a computational perspective: A Top-Down-Top view and outlook
Backward Alignment is an indispensable part of the AI Alignment process, and the alignment issues from the Socio-Technical Systems (STS) perspective are an important component of it. For the current AI... |
f993188b-9844-4d69-b263-89f9e6f120c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A shortcoming of concrete demonstrations as AGI risk advocacy
Given any particular concrete demonstration of an AI algorithm doing seemingly-bad-thing X, a knowledgeable AGI optimist can look closely at the code, training data, etc., and say:
“Well of course, it’s obvious that the AI algorithm would do X under these ... |
1f97bc87-3207-4c8c-80b4-fe4f808545c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison Monday Meetup
WHEN: 21 November 2011 06:30:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 1831 Monroe St. Madison, WI 53711
This will be largely a social meetup - we'll get together at the Barriques on Monroe and chat. We'll probably play a game or two, and have an argument or two.
We'll also chat about the upcoming Sequences... |
3b8cdd6b-1d0c-4f35-afd8-7fc03c47c48e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Deep Learning 1: Introduction to Machine Learning Based AI
okay good let's try this again my name
is torie Grable and Sharaf machine
learning at UCL and I work as a research
scientist at deep mind it's a startup
company that tries to solve problems in
artificial intelligence this course is a
collaboration between UCL ... |
d02afa98-c3b9-4c59-a96f-62f78036fd44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimize Your Settings
Related to: The Good News of Situationist Psychology
Perhaps the most significant teaching social psychology has to offer is that most of our behaviors are determined by situational factors inherent to our settings, not by our personal qualities.[1]
Some consider this depressing-- for instance... |
141c4425-c6f8-4e6b-ae2b-4ded7599893a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mini thoughts on mintheism
[Epistemic status: Hunch in the form of a neologism. I've heard this idea—that I'm dubbing mintheism here—implied in several corners of the Internet. I want to give it a name and take a stab at why it's plausible. This post presupposes a connection between the decline in religious affiliatio... |
b0aee207-6e78-4588-8672-dbe8db655ee3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eli Dourado AMA on the Progress Forum
Eli Dourado—whom you might know from his writing on geothermal, supersonic, energy superabundance, or NEPA—is doing an AMA (Ask Me Anything) on the Progress Forum.
Get your questions in now, and upvote the ones you want to see answered. He’ll start answering Monday (Jan 30).
Aft... |
97efc162-a353-4cae-bc67-5998a5f60f7f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Lessons from Three Mile Island for AI Warning Shots
**Summary**
===========
In 1979, a nuclear power plant in Three Mile Island (TMI), Pennsylvania experienced a meltdown. In response, the public became much more concerned with the safety of nuclear power and successfully demanded increased regulation. TMI seems po... |
30f83cd2-bc50-472a-a02c-d81f4cd971ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A prior for technological discontinuities
Introduction
I looked at 50 technologies taken from a Wikipedia list History of technology, which I expect to provide a mostly random list of technologies. Of these 50 technologies, I think that 19 have a discontinuity, 13 might have one, and 18 probably don't. Of these, I'd c... |
38a2d32f-9b66-431c-b513-498f6b68d606 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Self-Tuning Networks: Bilevel Optimization of Hyperparameters using Structured Best-Response Functions
1 Introduction
---------------
Regularization hyperparameters such as weight decay, data augmentation, and dropout (Srivastava et al., [2014](#bib.bib54)) are crucial to the generalization of neural networks, but ... |
9cd37f6f-9bd2-4a22-ae44-570e9c90ceb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training a RL Model with Continuous State & Action Space in a Real-World Scenario
Hello everyone,
I'm a Data Science student diving into an exciting thesis topic: using reinforcement learning to stabilize boats in rough seas by adjusting a keel's angle. But I am a bit concerned about the high complexity of the proble... |
2cab329f-fd72-41ea-b516-d59168dbc4ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick sketch on how the Curry-Howard Isomorphism kinda appears to connect Algorithmic Information Theory with ordinal logics
The following is sorta-kinda carried on from a recent comments thread, where I was basically saying I wasn't gonna yack about what I'm thinking until I spent the time to fully formalized it. ... |
8fb9f697-d2a4-471d-919b-c1ed8ff2208e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 10: Instrumentally convergent goals
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
---------------------------... |
dc1847b3-0fa6-4768-ad5a-aec1bb74b8de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency
This is a linkpost for our paper Explaining grokking through circuit efficiency, which provides a general theory explaining when and why grokking (aka delayed generalisation) occurs, and makes several interesting and novel predictions which we experimentally confirm (intr... |
886971e9-a041-47a7-9ab9-2d7da5c530b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategic implications of AIs' ability to coordinate at low cost, for example by merging
It seems likely to me that AIs will be able to coordinate with each other much more easily (i.e., at lower cost and greater scale) than humans currently can, for example by merging into coherent unified agents by combining their u... |
627f4143-874d-45a3-aefc-3666fd83dff1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Brian Christian - The alignment problem
hey everyone jeremy here and welcome
back to the towards data science podcast
now today's guest is someone i've been
looking forward to having on the podcast
for quite a while now
his name is brian christian and he's the
author of a number of best-selling books
which probe the c... |
21b9636c-93a1-4fed-b115-75bdff42c7cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the right phrase for "theoretical evidence"?
I mean "theoretical evidence" as something that is in contrast to empirical evidence. Alternative phrases include "inside view evidence" and "gears-level evidence".
I personally really like the phrase "gears-level evidence". What I'm trying to refer to is something... |
0666b812-bedd-4875-a5f9-8f8480bb8c0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The idea of an "aligned superintelligence" seems misguided
For a while I’ve been reading LessWrong, and there’s something that doesn’t make much sense to me, which is the idea that it is possible to align an AGI/superintelligence at all. I understand that it’s probably not even a majority of discussion on LW that is o... |
c9fd4395-c091-4b93-b6a7-a4e530a6fb60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Verifying Stability of Stochastic Systems
I just finished presenting my recent paper on stochastic verification at RSS 2011. There is a [conference version online](http://www.roboticsproceedings.org/rss07/p41.html), with a journal article to come later. In this post I want to go over the problem statement and my solut... |
69a11427-083b-4d6a-99eb-3426cb18267e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neo-Mohism
“When one advances claims, one must first establish a standard of assessment. To make claims in the absence of such a standard is like trying to establish on the surface of a spinning potter’s wheel where the sun will rise and set. Without a fixed standard, one cannot clearly ascertain what is right and wro... |
b6654ba8-233c-40cc-bb7e-1d3d365a6858 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Why don't people like markets?
An interesting piece with speculation on possible reasons for why people seem to be biased against markets. To summarize:
* Market processes are not visible. For instance, when a government taxes its citizens and offers a subsidy to some producers, what is seen is the money taken... |
c77ffa32-3c48-4fc7-a3f8-89276ebe441c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Environmentalism in the United States Is Unusually Partisan
This is the first in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan?
Introduction
In the United States, environmentalism is extremely partisan.
It might feel like this was inevitable. Caring about the envi... |
64d4ca4c-0254-4756-8c14-0e952881fe37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Light Arts
tl;dr: It is worthwhile to convince people that they already, by their own lights, have reasons to believe true things, as this is faster, easier, nicer, and more effective than helping them create from scratch reasons to believe those things.
This is not part of the problem-solving sequence. I do plan to... |
4e70a22c-7f2a-4884-9dbd-376e8e9530b8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps
People who dream of being like the great innovators in history often try working in the same fields - physics for people who dream of being like Einstein, biology for people who dream of being like Darwin, etc.
But this seems backwards to me. To be as revolutio... |
baf6fe8a-212d-469b-b5f2-309d62b2eaff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety at the Frontier: Paper Highlights, October '24
This is a selection of AI safety paper highlights in October 2024, from my blog "AI Safety at the Frontier". The selection primarily covers ML-oriented research. It's only concerned with papers (arXiv, conferences etc.), not LessWrong or Alignment Forum posts. A... |
da8a3199-21da-42fd-99a9-3bc956b5ebf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities?
Presumably, this has been discussed somewhere in the past, but I wonder to which extent causal decision theorists (and many other non-evidential decision theorists, too) are trying to make better predictions than (what they think to be) their ... |
0a430747-05c7-4931-97a7-3071b53c5beb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stanford claims to have replicated ChatGPT for < $600
|
69e4ee4e-9c15-4f34-b61c-b66afe83b7cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?
> Recent breakthroughs in reasoning-focused large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI-o1, DeepSeek-R1, and Kimi-1.5 have largely relied on Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), which replaces human annotati... |
10da144b-8132-4f7c-a8b8-336b742d01f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fixed Sum Fallacy
(Update: Patrick points out the subject of this post is already well-known as the gambler's fallacy. I really should have read Tversky and Kahneman before posting.)
You're flipping a coin 100 times, the first five throws came up heads, what do you expect on the next throw? If you believe the coi... |
46b1990a-a3fd-4339-8012-b17fa623a05f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Backdoor awareness and misaligned personas in reasoning models
OpenAI did great work studying emergent misalignment, where models become generally misaligned after narrow training. They found that the assistant has a toxic, misaligned persona. The model discusses having a "bad boy persona" in the chain-of-thought (Co... |
d0bb4bfc-a6dc-47fe-98b6-740d4b47a6f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Democratizing AI Governance: Balancing Expertise and Public Participation
Technological innovation has historically emerged from concentrated centers of expertise, developed by a limited group of specialists with minimal public oversight or legal frameworks (e.g. printing press, nuclear weapons). The development of ar... |
071a7de4-9266-4fc1-b980-ee4a493aea71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How could one (and should one) convert someone from pseudoscience?
I've known for a long time that some people who are very close to me are somewhat inclined to believe the pseudoscience world, but it always seemed pretty benign. In their everyday lives they're pretty normal people and don't do any crazy things, so th... |
eceb7b75-68fe-4932-b9f5-fe757c2e9bd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dishwasher Filter
A few months ago our dishwasher started building up food inside the sprayer arms. It happened pretty suddenly: within a few days I was needing to pick things out daily. I initially thought the dishwasher had been run with the filter not properly seated and food had gotten into the water recirculation... |
1c8bc529-93cf-4954-b305-449666c0de93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal: Understand Intelligence
Save the world by understanding intelligence.
Instead of having SGD "grow" intelligence, design the algorithms of intelligence directly to get a system we can reason about. Align this system to a narrow but pivotal task, e.g. upload a human.
The key to intelligence is finding the algori... |
eaa5b512-7b51-4cfb-9e5e-2bdcfc40af00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is cardio enough for longevity benefits of exercise?
I guess the answer is that cardio alone is not optimal. But how non-optimal is it? |
4e2bc3bb-2ad3-4d94-85ce-134aa8a615e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #48: The Talk of Davos
While I was in San Francisco, the big head honchos headed for Davos, where AI was the talk of the town. As well it should be, given what will be coming soon. It did not seem like anyone involved much noticed or cared about the existential concerns. That is consistent with the spirit of Davos,... |
a6e061ef-4148-403b-a870-6b0f687368a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Confusions and updates on STEM AI
### **Background**
In November 2022, I was thinking a lot about the possible paths to getting powerful and dangerous AI models. My intuition was that an AI that can generate new science, i.e., it can write down a series of hypotheses, select one or more of them, design experiments to... |
a7037d5f-bf16-452d-a785-0cd58eb5cb9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow Meetup: biology, CBT and something mysterious
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow Meetup: biology, CBT and something mysterious
WHEN: 22 December 2014 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Here's our plan: evolutionary origins of morality metaphilosophy, real world... |
06f32ec1-a3b5-4ecb-aa1e-902ede888bc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding an Error-Detection Feature in DeepSeek-R1
I recently did a weekend research sprint investigating error-detection behaviour in DeepSeek R1 models and writing up preliminary findings. I think I found some cool stuff on how the model tracks its mistakes, and wanted to share the rough write-up in case it's of int... |
f9dd8a65-fd96-4697-b5c0-05f340e08958 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Ben Horowitz and others are spreading a "regulation is bad" view. Would it be useful to have a public bet on "would Ben update his view if he had 1-1 with X-Risk researcher?", and urge Ben to run such an experiment?
Context
=======
The [conversation between Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen](https://www.youtube.com/wa... |
0206ef8b-0e92-4c53-8a59-1e3c88cae610 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Events of Low Probability: Buridan's Principle
You may have heard of the "infinite monkey theorem". It states: if you take a monkey, give it a typewriter and an infinite amount of time, sooner or later it will type out the complete text of Hamlet.[1]
It's said that this theorem emerged during 19th-century debates abo... |
839ee3e3-cd47-4090-a094-ed816e090638 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal Agents: AIs as trusted advisors, caretakers, and user proxies
Just posted the following on Medium. Interested in comments from readers here, especially pointers to similar efforts and ideas I didn't mention below.
This is the first in a series of articles describing features, functions, and components of Per... |
a9ada336-59b3-49a8-a578-a4f34aae8460 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Expect to know better when you know more
A seemingly trivial result, that I haven't seen posted anywhere in this form, that I could find. It simply shows that we expect evidence to increase the posterior probability of the true hypothesis.
Let H be the true hypothesis/model/environment/distribution, and ~H its negati... |
fd4e854a-17eb-4cfa-8f2a-7874e8dacf68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there neuroscience research on cognitive biases?
I recently watched NeuraLink's presentation, and wondered how can something like that help us reason.
The obvious way is an AI that can reason, and is connected to our brains and we reason together with it.
But another direction i thought of, is just helping us not... |
0214aa9e-9709-43c2-a95f-36f527aab103 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Cambist and Lord Iron: A Fairy Tale of Economics
Available in PDF here, the short story in question may appeal to LW readers for its approach of viewing more things than are customary in handy economic terms, and is a fine piece of fiction to boot. The moneychanger protagonist gets out of several sticky situation... |
fb6b5ad8-1ce2-45f9-b0e0-8b713d42aa21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards more Generalizable One-shot Visual Imitation Learning.
I Introduction
---------------
![
Illustration of train/test split in prior and our proposed settings. In contrast to prior work in one-shot imitation learning which add more variations to a single task, we propose to train on multiple distinct tasks alo... |
a9b64a5c-bbc9-40ae-87b8-c2e3361a29b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Product MVP: LightWrong
|
482fd53b-f43b-41e5-938b-c5b819997748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Fear Failure
Last post, I talked about how trying things out yourself is a good way to learn about them. This post, I'm going to talk about ideas that helped me overcome one of my major obstacles to trying something -- fear of failure.
Overestimation of Damages: "Its not that big a deal"
In most cases, failure... |
015a6156-6ed6-4e57-b92d-522b388d7e01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching Magic Cards
I like playing Magic, except for the "it's designed to pump away your money" aspect. So I like formats where I can play with other people's cards a lot! My favorite is probably drafting from booster packs where someone else will keep all the cards, but yesterday Stevie brought over a Forgetful Fi... |
4b1905a5-5ee4-4e4c-929b-cf526ee8f5ad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Meta-Dataset: A Dataset of Datasets for Learning to Learn from Few Examples
1 Introduction
---------------
Few-shot learning refers to learning new concepts from few examples, an ability that humans naturally possess, but machines desperately lack. Improving on this aspect would lead to more efficient algorithms th... |
270e70fd-227e-4523-8c07-55b413d8bfe1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Thoughts on Concept Formation and Use in Agents
Note: I wrote this document over a year ago and have decided to post it with minimal edits; it isn't entirely up to date with my current thinking on the subject.
Imagine you enter a room that looks like this:
Despite never having visited this room, you can make... |
3ad77de4-284c-4f19-b876-b699dcf3cd9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anonymous feedback forms revisited
> In 2011, I added an anonymous feedback form to gwern.net. It has worked well (116 entries) and justified the time it took to set up because it encourages people to correct various problems or tip me off on things. If you have a site, maybe you should add one too.
For the full writ... |
9f426aae-76ea-46c3-88f7-dab53c65cf6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wikipedia as an introduction to the alignment problem
AI researchers and others are increasingly looking for an introduction to the alignment problem that is clearly written, credible, and supported by evidence and real examples. The Wikipedia article on AI Alignment has become such an introduction.
Link: https://en.... |
3f8a6041-882a-4502-ab83-7d1fc2690f53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards the first adversarially robust neural network model on MNIST
|
1cd223b1-dafc-4abb-a431-1a19d8d2e045 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Functional Trade-offs
I found this super cool paper from Marco Del Giudice and Bernard J. Crespi called Basic functional trade-offs in cognition: An integrative framework that I thought y'all would like. What follows is largely just a condensed version of their paper where I take the most relevant quotes and paste the... |
97393dce-c3d6-4f0d-84b1-a669b9fe6a8c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #169]: Collaborating with humans without human data
Listen to this newsletter on **[The Alignment Newsletter Podcast](http://alignment-newsletter.libsyn.com/)**.
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources h... |
d455e1e6-8006-4ee0-9ef2-e98de7873257 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Host a Find Me Party
For my birthday this year, i invited friends to a party on Saturday but didn't tell them the location. I gave a list of questions they could ask me. Whoever finds me in the fewest questions wins a prize.
Each friend showed up that day excited to tell me about their detective work & misadv... |
612b3dc6-af5d-4745-9bc2-200e61ae8f4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biomedical research, superstars, and innovation
As part of my work for Cognito Mentoring reviewing biomedical research as a career option (not much at the link there right now), I came across an interview with biomedical researcher John Todd of Cambridge University published by 80,000 Hours.
The whole interview is in... |
57ffc0d6-f328-459c-b7e3-30942296fcc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | HDBSCAN is Surprisingly Effective at Finding Interpretable Clusters of the SAE Decoder Matrix
*All authors have equal contribution.
This is a short informal post about recent discoveries our team made when we:
1. Clustered feature vectors in the decoder matrices of Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) trained on the residual... |
575e433d-f426-401e-a964-dc458cc0ce8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : New Year meetup Frankfurt
Discussion article for the meetup : New Year meetup Frankfurt
WHEN: 11 January 2015 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Heerstrasse Frankfurt
We're having our first meetup in the New Year! I'd like to encourage to do some projects together this year (and look at what some or all of us want ... |
8dce9832-9303-45c1-9cd6-330c4b686885 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #54] Boxing a finite-horizon AI system to keep it unambitious
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUC... |
cd1cfc54-5159-4ec1-bc0d-e182577c973b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on minimizing designer baby drama
I previously wrote a post hypothesizing that inter-group conflict is more common when most humans belong to readily identifiable, discrete factions.
This seems relevant to the recent human gene editing advance. Full human gene editing capability probably won't come soon, bu... |
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