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5ed30ef2-ebaa-46b5-b67f-9e40124c9ba4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
We Need Holistic AI Macrostrategy Summary AI Macrostrategy is the study of high level questions having to do with prioritizing the use of resources on the current margin in order to achieve good AI outcomes.  AI macrostrategy seems important if it is tractable.  However, while few people are working on estimating part...
1d0ddbb1-79c2-45de-a9f4-aa4416281013
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Housing Markets, Satisficers, and One-Track Goodhart There are two parts to what people generally refer to as the "Housing Crisis". One is the simple fact that homes are too expensive. The other part is that building new, expensive houses pushes existing, poorer, renting residents out of communities and scatters them ...
3b863faf-5669-41a0-8666-0efb3e3829ef
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Inner Misalignment in "Simulator" LLMs *Alternate title: "Somewhat Contra Scott On Simulators".* Scott Alexander has a [recent post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/janus-simulators) up on large language models as simulators. I generally agree with Part I of the post, which advocates thinking about LLMs as sim...
86d32c0d-dcc0-4854-b860-2b6ee54cc91a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What kind of place is this? I started getting LessWrong posts in my email about a year ago—I don't remember signing up, but I must have done it intentionally. I like most of what I've been reading so far: it's a civil forum in which people think about the process of thought and its application, though some of the spec...
45c62a08-fa75-4f53-89fc-3c448a68fb8e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
No Value I am still quite new to LW, so I apologize if this is something that has been discussed before (I did try and search). I would't normally post such a thing, as I try not to make a habit of complaining my problems to others, but a solution to this would likely benefit other rationalists (at least that's the e...
eceb2046-d17d-4c06-8403-5247d11341c7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Palo Alto Meetup: The Economics of AI Discussion article for the meetup : Palo Alto Meetup: The Economics of AI WHEN: 05 January 2016 06:30:00PM (-0800) WHERE: 3911 Grove Avenue, Palo Alto Edward will give a talk about the Economics of AI and its implications for the Singularity Hypothesis The meetup is ...
07fb92de-01ef-45a0-b852-af51b411e65b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Systems Engineering and the META Program I periodically look for information on systems engineering. This time I came across a powerpoint presentation from the MIT Open Courseware course Fundamentals of Systems Engineering. Professor de Weck, who taught the course, had done some research on state-of-the-art methods de...
644676f1-9ca1-4f4d-a2ae-3a5d0b032831
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Political ideas meant to provoke thought Politics as gymnastics for rationalists.  No one one Less Wrong is quite sure why politics is a taboo topic or how things got to be that way.  What we do think we know is that politics is a great way to bring out the irrationality in people.  So why not take advantage of that a...
934ee7f1-dff3-4973-8bc7-8320823506d6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
LLMs Look Increasingly Like General Reasoners Summary Four months after my post 'LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux', new research on o1-preview should update us significantly toward LLMs being capable of general reasoning, and hence of scaling straight to AGI, and shorten our timeline estimates. Update Since writing...
c051a795-cefe-4e15-ac18-2d668cd19b14
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games WHEN: 21 March 2016 06:15:00PM (-0700) WHERE: 1597 Howard St., San Francisco We'll be meeting up to hang out and play board games! Roger and I will be out of town this week, so Anton and Jacob are hosti...
bf9a3c71-6aa1-4f07-8231-2723e9005944
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Your Evolved Intuitions Part of the sequence: Rationality and Philosophy We have already examined one source of our intuitions: attribute substitution heuristics. Today we examine a second source of our intuitions: biological evolution.   EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY Evolutionary psychology1 has been covered on Less Wr...
2c7b3609-3bc4-47c2-b6fa-3e2e1419cece
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Three Fables of Magical Girls and Longtermism Epistemic status: Whimsical Major spoilers for Madoka Magica, a show where spoilers matter! Kyubey Shuts Up And Multiplies Meet Kyubey. Kyubey is a Longtermist. This is what peak utilitarianism looks like. In the Madokaverse, changes in human emotion are, somehow, net-...
08609579-e23c-4d32-bcb2-c3ad9c792229
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open thread, Apr. 24 - Apr. 30, 2017 If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here. ---------------------------------------- Notes for future OT posters: 1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag. 2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ...
e8e7bc24-b435-4ce4-bcd7-a8ed5ac2e07b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Economics of Media When I was a kid I thought the news came from "investigative reporters" like Clark Kent were who were paid to research stories. Since then, I have gotten my startup on national television, placed a press release into the world news, discussed biological warfare as a podcast guest, written a blog...
bbc7dc88-6e2c-44c3-b199-2eec099f037f
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Hanson AI Expert Survey In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration. This suggests on a simple extrapolation that reachin...
ca2527dd-a483-46ae-960d-78d157ebe972
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Group Decision Making (the good, the bad, and the confusion of welfare economics) Discussion article for the meetup : Group Decision Making (the good, the bad, and the confusion of welfare economics) WHEN: 08 May 2013 07:00:00PM (-0700) WHERE: West Los Angeles (At the Westside Tavern Upstair Wine Bar) Whe...
52e1b14f-b905-4287-ae9a-6a45a02fdd2e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Draft] How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup is a guide that I've been working on, based on lukeprog's instructions, for the last week and a half. As it says in the beginning: > This document is written for anyone who wants to organize a Less Wrong meetup. We expect that...
14c49743-d2aa-4e38-b0a9-5ef1c5ce4914
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
imitation: Clean Imitation Learning Implementations 1 Introduction --------------- Reinforcement learning (RL) has surpassed human performance in domains with clearly-defined reward functions, such as games (Berner et al., [2019](#bib.bib1 "Dota 2 with large scale deep reinforcement learning")). Unfortunately, it i...
2f472d7e-5b6e-4834-a85e-bd413b64229c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
AGI & War Recently Garett Jones made [a](https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1660623889074909185) [few](https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1661144878628368384) [tweets](https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1660597124789051394) implying that the existence of entities with a very wide power differential today i...
a210d6fa-94dc-426a-a0b9-b8cd6339dc7d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Codex of Ultimate Vibing While we wait for wisdom, OpenAI releases a research preview of a new software engineering agent called Codex, because they previously released a lightweight open-source coding agent in terminal called Codex CLI and if OpenAI uses non-confusing product names it violates the nonprofit chart...
984c3e4f-5995-42cc-afdf-d069891e011e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Effective children education I am trying to find out what are the most cost-effective ways of (early) education. I have a 4-year-old daughter and that gives me about ~2 more years to figure this out and I am trying to put together as much material as I can. Given the age of my daughter, I’d like to “solve” something l...
5f893f14-14eb-4818-a7bf-c7d3eb343e6f
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube
Youtube Transcripts
Explainable AI with a Purpose (Emily Sullivan) yeah great yeah thanks for having me so algorithms are involved in more and more automated decision processes right they um determine the music that we listen to right the type of news that we see on social media they can even be used in making um decisions in healthcare ...
bb0ecdda-5d44-45f2-ab44-e6e0be4ffeae
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Summary of ML Safety Course This summary was written as part of Refine. The ML Safety Course is created by Dan Hendrycks at the Center for AI Safety. Thanks to Linda Linsefors and Chris Scammel for helpful feedback.  Epistemic status: Low effort post intended for my own reference. Not endorsed by the course creators....
17dfd866-07a7-40dc-90ea-6c20bbe60f31
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open Thread: April 2010 An Open Thread: a place for things foolishly April, and other assorted discussions. This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post. Update: Tom McCabe has created a sub...
dcbe57c4-f77d-4c4f-a470-e5779963383a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How ForumMagnum builds communities of inquiry The website you're currently using is powered by ForumMagnum. But what really is ForumMagnum? What is it for, and why was it designed this way? In this post, I cast ForumMagnum as a medium for building communities of inquiry. I show how ForumMagnum is designed to build nor...
4d7ea89e-3359-4e92-ac96-e7a59eb7b3c4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Rethink Priorities is looking for a (Co-)Founder for a New Project: Field Building in Universities for AI Policy Careers in the US **Summary** ----------- * We are currently seeking a founder, or founding team, for a project focusing on field building in universities for AI policy careers in the US. * RP commits to ...
d526a7ae-13ff-4e2f-a9e2-ff0be4d9482d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Austin, TX NEW LOCATION! Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX NEW LOCATION! WHEN: 19 November 2011 01:30:00PM (-0600) WHERE: 2100 Speedway, Austin, Texas The Austin LW meetup has moved (possibly temporarily, possibly permanently. Stay tuned)! We'll be meeting at 1:30, as normal, but in CBA 4.338...
05d290d9-84b5-4d4f-a6c2-b6939ee8778b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Right for the Right Reasons: Training Differentiable Models by Constraining their Explanations 1 Introduction --------------- High-dimensional real-world datasets are often full of ambiguities. When we train models to classify them, it is frequently possible to achieve high accuracy using models with qualitatively ...
4486347c-3b97-4cee-ad08-0e09294c688f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Aggregative principles approximate utilitarian principles 1. Introduction Utilitarianism is the view that a social planner should choose options which maximise the social utility of the resulting social outcome. The central object in utilitarianism is the social utility function u:S→R which assigns a real value u(s)∈R...
0e239500-ec1b-4aa1-824a-0cde9493e3b9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Estimating COVID cases & deaths in India over the coming months Does anyone have a good method to estimate the number of COVID cases India is likely to experience in the next couple of months? I realize this is a hard problem but any method I can use to put bounds on how good or how bad it could be would be helpful. ...
b252003e-fa6d-4d59-98dc-3b5fa8989219
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Betting on Logic Consider the following decision problem inspired by Ahmed ([2013](https://philpapers.org/rec/AHMCDT-2), [2014](https://philpapers.org/rec/AHMCDT-3)). > **Betting on logic**. In my pocket (says Bob) I have a slip of paper on which is written a proposition P.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-heig...
2eb8b24e-99c1-4d32-8215-473aa5f11163
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices Today's post, No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices was originally published on 17 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > Price's Equation describes quantitatively how the change in a average trait, in each generation, is equal to the ...
8f1a5073-1a16-4f5b-a402-59ef2f6b7c9a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Geometry of Linear Regression versus PCA In statistics, there are two common ways to "find the best linear approximation to data": linear regression and principal component analysis. However, they are quite different---having distinct assumptions, use cases, and geometric properties. I remained subtly confused abo...
2408c7a6-fb4f-4c05-9e89-dd3945a6eca0
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Active Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo Tree Search 1 Introduction --------------- ### 1.1 Motivation Imagine two treatments are being tested in a medical trial. The treatments are cheap but having doctors evaluate whether they worked costs £5,000 for each additional patient. Treatments are assigned usin...
05fd4a82-692e-4653-ab95-4d5993c21b4b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Splitting Debate up into Two Subsystems In this post I will first recap how debate can help with value learning and that a standard debater optimizes for convincingness. Then I will illustrate how two subsystems could help with value learning in a similar way, without optimizing for convincingness. (Of course this ne...
e4803824-d149-4c28-bce2-0ec952f0365d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Between Progress and Potential Impact of AI: the Neglected Dimensions 1 Introduction --------------- Metrics of scientific progress can play an outsized role in the perception of a field and in the allocation of its resources. By contrast, that which goes unmeasured is often neglected. We argue for a more general a...
13a6416a-a635-4df8-b278-9e50993b208e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Blackwell order as a formalization of knowledge Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further financial support. Epistemic status: I’m 90% sure that this post faithfully relates the content of the paper that it reviews. ---------------------------------------- In a ...
ffdf62b0-5709-47c1-9ee1-8c2f102f2db6
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Introducing Generally Intelligent: an AI research lab focused on improved theoretical and pragmatic understanding Today we are both launching our organization, Generally Intelligent, and open sourcing part of our research environment, Avalon, to enable the academic research community to make progress on understanding ...
b9b3937b-16f4-46f1-bfb4-7be6926a6f79
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Manual Economy [An attempt at fiction in the style of Scott Alexander. With bits of Lewis Carroll and Douglas Adams thrown in for good measure. Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Empty.] The hallucination started out so normally, I completely forgot that I was tripping. I was at the dentist, and I had just had my...
0867c7f4-7bc8-4772-9614-132a4333d8f2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Can genetic privilege exist within an evolutionary equilibrium? ChatGPT and evolutionary biologists all seem to agree that the answer to my question is a resounding "yes," but I don't understand why. In particular, if a subpopulation has a persistent genetic privilege, doesn't that inherently imply that the population...
990e755e-ce88-4d21-a64f-56fac749bb9f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How GPT-N will escape from its AI-box Scenario: A human user asks GPT-N a plain text question through the usual browser textbox interface. GPT-N answers in the form of text, which contains clever Javascript code. Instead of being displayed, the malicious code triggers a browser exploit and gets executed. Now GPT-N has...
34408d93-c15e-4567-9a3b-f6649d986c7f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence Since the CAIS technical report is a gargantuan 210 page document, I figured I'd write a post to summarize it. I have focused on the earlier chapters, because I found those to be more important for understanding the core model. Later chapte...
c38e53dc-5175-4fbd-a177-558a6b323925
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Coming Back to Biking For about a year and a half starting in September 2008, I rode my bike everywhere. I was very into it, in a retrogrouch way. Over time my knees started hurting so I stopped biking. I just tried coming back to it, easing into it so I don't hurt my knees again, and I was surprised at how many thing...
ed96fa21-f840-4677-ae80-e827818b084f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[ages 16-21] Apply to PAIR & ESPR, Summer AI & Rationality Programs TL;DR: PAIR on AI & Reasoning. ESPR on Everything, including AI and Reasoning. If you are 16-21 yo and are interested in AI, Rationality or Everything, we encourage you to apply by March 16th. The FABRIC team is running two immersive summer workshops...
ac2b4933-0cff-4804-9c84-421104c81260
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Glide #1: Learning Rationality from Absurdity Glide Meditation #1: A Reflection on "The Simple Truth" My first exposure to “The Simple Truth”, the first entry in the original collection of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Sequences, was actually a dramatic reading I found on YouTube. I had intended to read it during my lunch brea...
4a598c46-31ba-4195-927d-4bfa83f992e9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Timeless Control Today's post, Timeless Control was originally published on 07 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > We throw away "time" but retain causality, and with it, the concepts "control" and "decide". To talk of something as having been "always determined" is mixing up a timeless an...
a88eb836-181a-4af0-85c9-f852b92ad216
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Addressing three problems with counterfactual corrigibility: bad bets, defending against backstops, and overconfidence. Summary: I propose that counterfactual corrigibility can be slightly adjusted to address known problems with bad bets and defending against backstops. This adjusted version has learning-esque behavio...
973366bf-838e-4e9e-9dcc-6fed93e525d0
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Sum of vector spaces The sum of two [vector spaces](https://arbital.com/p/3w0) $U$ and $W,$ written $U + W,$ is a vector space where the set of vectors is all possible $u + w$ for every $u \in U$ and $w \in W.$
10abb85c-95ea-4ce9-8dd6-f1da9523674a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AISN #23: New OpenAI Models, News from Anthropic, and Representation Engineering Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required. Subscribe here to receive future versions. ---------------------------------------- OpenAI...
4474eb34-e4c4-4114-ab81-456e3d69fda0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Krueger Lab AI Safety Internship 2024   KASL - AI Safety Internship 2024 Join the Krueger AI Safety Lab (KASL) at the University of Cambridge for a paid Research Internship focusing on technical and governance aspects of AI safety. Remote interns are welcome. Apply by Monday, January 29, 23:59 UTC. Shortlisted candida...
4f33ec42-ed03-4d2f-b0df-1d6bc6e409b9
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Acausal Now: We could totally acausally bargain with aliens at our current tech level if desired *tl;dr. Weird forms of cooperation become humanly possible with the correct mechanisms. It might be interesting to try them out for practice/research purposes, even if there is not much to gain directly from aliens.* *No...
814b5524-c3a8-418c-99ec-3c6cb98c00a9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Apply to the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX), a research program in Berkeley This winter, Redwood Research is running a coordinated research effort on mechanistic interpretability of transformer models. We’re excited about recent advances in mechanistic interpretability and now want to...
7b178089-c2ec-4f9a-93a5-a41bbf43776c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Using KL-divergence to focus Deep Visual Explanation 1 Introduction --------------- Deep convolution neural networks have shown impressive results in many domains such as in computer vision problems. The fundamental improvement of current deep learning methods is that, unlike earlier more shallow network layers, de...
9a06de24-6ce6-4317-adbe-8c4743017963
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What did you learn from leaked documents? As rationalists we seek to understand the world, but it's made harder by political bias and different agendas. Leaked documents, represent a kind of ground truth, showing how the world really works. Telling us what's for sale, what the real agendas are, how powerful spies are...
d9c8e364-c438-4ba3-a77f-75a9daf4b4e4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold | Nature [Download PDF](/articles/s41586-021-03819-2.pdf) ### Subjects \* [Computational biophysics](/subjects/computational-biophysics) \* [Machine learning](/subjects/machine-learning) \* [Protein structure predictions](/subjects/protein-structure-p...
e781643a-9ad1-45e5-a52d-7840f1e87650
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
AGI Safety Needs People With All Skillsets! *(Cross-posted to* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onBLAcQqmDZDKyDEJ/agi-safety-needs-people-with-all-skillsets)*)* ![](http://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/v1667995242/mirroredImages/NJtC8xzD8BgF3TmEp/vnwxytfwke3mhqs4guxz.png)For quite a while, I had tw...
259e8e0a-be42-49c2-98b7-7dfaa50d8ffd
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Stand-Alone Self-Attention in Vision Models 1 Introduction --------------- Digital image processing arose from the recognition that handcrafted linear filters applied convolutionally to pixelated imagery may subserve a large variety of applications [gonzalez2002digital](#bib.bib1) . The success of digital image pro...
f2cb4084-6152-4657-865f-d630d5d7b092
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Rationality, Pedagogy, and "Vibes": Quick Thoughts I just read this book review of Egan's The Educated Mind. Here are some thoughts I had, written for all but grammatically directed at the review's anonymous author (like a typical comment!). I'd love to go to that middle school, and that high school. It would set a l...
e0963f77-8358-45dc-ac84-b2c92db465d6
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Learning human preferences: optimistic and pessimistic scenarios In this post and the next, I try and clarify - for myself and for others - the precise practical implications of the "[Occam's razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812)" paper. Time and again...
318deb98-a5ef-4de7-8b1a-087b1c6cb224
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[LINK] Well-written article on the Future of Humanity Institute and Existential Risk This introduction to the concept of existential risk is perhaps the best such article I've read targeted at a general audience.  It manages to cover a lot of ground in a way that felt engaging to me and that I think would carry along ...
add3f24d-8e06-4ed7-a743-f2ccc7536f0d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Causes of a Debt Crisis—Economic The crazy thing about debt crises is that they don’t get incentivized away by an efficient market. First, prices are way too high, then they’re way too low—why don’t self-interested people profit enough on avoiding them for us all to avoid them? Part of why I have never seen a satisfa...
497891a9-9c72-428e-8454-ff412921b612
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] Learning New Languages Helps The Brain Grow http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?news_item=5928&id=24890 According to Johan Mårtensson from Lund University, if you are learning new language quickly, it helps your brain to become bigger and increase its activity: > This finding came from scientists at Lund ...
85f6d96d-13cc-4e6e-b05f-71d6e302f33c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
BIDA Air Quality Measurements I've been curious for a while how well the ventilation at the BIDA contra dance works. This is actually something that we can measure reasonably well by looking at CO2 levels: outside air has about 400 parts-per-million (ppm), while your exhalation is about 40,000ppm. By measuring the con...
286f10aa-74d8-43bb-8a71-6817c31df616
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Averages and sample sizes My brain seems to not get statistics and probability. So I was wondering about how averaging things out is influenced by the amount of items being averaged, and in particular, how the underlying distribution will change things. Here are some stories to illustrate the issue: Minting You’re a...
3f7ef77a-4021-4e07-b6e1-a1c3430a27ae
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions? Summary I present an extension to my optimal timing of spending on AGI safety model for calculating the value of information of AGI timelines via informing one’s spending schedule. I show, using my best guess of the mo...
1249ba9b-0bd3-4283-8778-101766711c13
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Coordination by common knowledge to prevent uncontrollable AI How can we avoid an uncontrollable AI if regulation to prevent it is not feasible? Alignment of a superintelligent AI with human values is very difficult, if possible at all. Given the current speed in AI development, it seems unlikely that we will have a s...
3b9b6932-d357-46bb-af98-35519cdeacb2
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
AI Pause Will Likely Backfire Should we lobby governments to impose a moratorium on AI research? Since we don’t enforce pauses on most new technologies, I hope the reader will grant that the burden of proof is on those who advocate for such a moratorium. We should only advocate for such heavy-handed government action ...
73ea689e-609f-4396-ae35-e0fdde574f5c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
“User does not meet the requirements to vote” What’s going on here? I have a relatively new account and I used to be able to vote, but now I just get this message. I also can’t change votes I’ve already cast.
6d638b42-bc1a-40eb-92bb-c596e9dd7c72
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Moscow: rational review, status quo bias, interpersonal closeness Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: rational review, status quo bias, interpersonal closeness WHEN: 30 October 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300) WHERE: Москва, ул. Большая Дорогомиловская, д.5к2 Note: most our members join meetups via other ch...
33c81b68-b719-4530-8db9-11b217bff7f1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Military AI as a Convergent Goal of Self-Improving AI
e4abdaed-ddc8-44c0-96fe-1a33bc40536e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Coalescer Models DaemonicSigil So we're here today to discuss this post on an improvement to diffuser networks: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Cdusp5xzrHEoHz9n/faster-latent-diffusion Just as some general background for readers, there are various kinds of model one can train to imitate some empirical (i.e. you have...
c103f8e0-a0e3-4ed7-8d73-497bea52d5ba
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info
AI Safety Info
What is compute? Compute is shorthand for “computing power”. In machine learning, it refers to the total amount of processing power used to train a model. There might be confusion between the term “compute” and the phrase “leveraging computation”[^kix.1rdbod8r7y5e]. Compute refers to just the total amount of processi...
1ff0b41a-5b12-4eb7-8d50-f7e15ad88415
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism This post is a transcript of a multi-day discussion between Paul Christiano, Richard Ngo, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Rob Bensinger, Holden Karnofsky, Rohin Shah, Carl Shulman, Nate Soares, and Jaan Tallinn, following up on the Yudkowsky/Christiano debate in [1](https://www...
e81bb291-fdde-44e5-8d2f-eeee7e0ef14e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
I want to die in an infinite universe. How philosophy led me to the deepest heights of indifferent despair. {warning: a translation} Here there should be a quote related to the subject, showing our littleness, because that's what the quote implies, and our tickling ego, because someone wise said something with which w...
ed8603be-6c77-422a-bbdb-ecd635457fc7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Blame games In Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra, I worked through a well-known schema for distinguishing different relationships towards semantic reference, that are a natural result of interactions between shared-production games and expropriation games. Here, I analyze the coalition politics of such...
fd4d25b5-096f-4930-9eed-6a23f43c999d
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"A few days ago romeostevensit wrote in response to me asking about downvotes on a post: I didn’t down­vote, but I do think that con­ver­sa­tions like this at­tract peo­ple who aren’t in­ter­ested in ar­gu­ing in good faith. I pre­fer that such dis­cus­sions oc­cur at one ab­strac­tion level up so that they don’t need ...
7d02354a-efc4-4508-bc6b-d293c3cbfe89
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open Thread, October 27 - 31, 2013 If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
f4679880-c93b-4928-9807-6cb1727434de
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Book Review: Consciousness Explained > The trouble with brains, it seems, is that when you look in them, you discover that there’s nobody home. I. This is a book I've long been aware of, but never got that itch to read. Maybe I trusted the field of philosophy too little, assuming that a book called "Consciousness ...
46ae8a6c-47f0-4274-ab99-fec46d990057
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Pasteur's quadrant In my recent post on the case study of the transistor, we saw that the research that led to its invention did not fall neatly into the categories of “basic” vs. “applied”, but in fact cycled rapidly between them. An entire book—Pasteur’s Quadrant, by Donald Stokes—is dedicated to the thesis that “b...
173f0c29-15d7-4688-90be-7e637f19fd94
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Boeing 737 MAX MCAS as an agent corrigibility failure The Boeing Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) can be thought of, if reaching a bit, as a specialized AI: it performs a function normally reserved for a human pilot: pitching the nose down when it deems the angle of attack to be dangerously high....
fe1c9e41-9ef9-4fcf-98a9-1710319bb6d0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How did you come to find LessWrong? I was reflecting the other day about how I learned about LessWrong. As best as I can recall/retrace, I learned about LessWrong from gwern, who I met in the #wikipedia IRC channel via an essentially chance meeting. I'm wondering how typical my experience is. How did you come to LessW...
fbeb1b13-5992-4d18-aeca-9462061b930b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Will quantum randomness affect the 2028 election? This came up as a tangent from @habryka and me discussing whether The Hidden Complexity of Wishes was correct. Is the result of a US presidential election 4 years from now >0.1% contingent on quantum randomness (i.e. is an otherwise omniscient observer forecasting the...
dfca6f59-6699-4a2a-93b8-f43b555f3a7d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
OB Repost: "Plastination is Near" > These brain research techniques have now reached two key milestones: > > 1. They’ve found new ways to “fix” brain samples by filling them with plastic, ways that seem impressively reliable, resilient, and long lasting, and which work on large brain volumes (e.g., here). Such plast...
63278820-8d60-4f04-b891-f5d51ff8b44a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Null event Discussion article for the meetup : Null event WHEN: 11 January 2016 04:00:16PM (+1100) WHERE: West Antarctica PLEASE IGNORE It wasn't possible to correct the date on this event (was marked for April 2016 instead of 2015), so I'm trying to get rid of it this way. Discussion article for the me...
40e4fda3-3276-43ac-a74f-37286eed68e9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Buying Debt as Effective Altruism? http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/occupy-wall-street-activists-15m-personal-debt A collection of Occupy activists recently bought over $14,000,000 in personal debt for $400,000. Normally, debt-buying companies do this with the intention of collecting the money from the d...
88c223be-a9a9-4499-8cc6-60d31ecd7076
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Some Existing Selection Theorems This post illustrates how various existing [Selection Theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents) and related results fit the general framework - what they tell us about agent type signatures, and how they (usually ...
d13e8313-5718-4b81-b442-282b2dd1ef53
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs
Other
Interview with w5cb5 \*\*Interview with w5cb5, on 3/18/22\*\* ==================================== \*\*0:00:02.2 Vael:\*\* Alright, so my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a few sentences? \*\*0:00:08.5 Interviewee:\*\* I worked in \[subfield\] originally, but I guess I branched...
57b0f788-9921-48ea-ae2e-5e3ce54d5e82
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Reframing Evolution - An information wavefront traveling through time I think I came up with this idea 10 years or so ago, but part of me thinks I read it somewhere? No new idea under sun and all that. People love stories. We want a character with a goal. So, when learning of evolution, people like to imagine charact...
5c1cc9ee-2e0b-41ce-adee-b05e67711295
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
birds and mammals independently evolved intelligence Researchers used RNA sequencing to observe how cell types change during brain development. Other researchers looked at connection patterns of neurons in brains. Clear distinctions have been found between all mammals and all birds. They've concluded intelligence deve...
b5b0bb7d-8129-4581-a00f-52ec00e2f49c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Superintelligence Alignment Proposal This essay asks whether self-interested superintelligence will ultimately see its self as distinct from or inclusive of humanity, then makes safety recommendations for AI labs. Instrumental convergence predicts that superintelligence will develop self-interest. Natural selection a...
3e8667e6-9015-4be2-a92a-2f00f35b29ec
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What should the EA community learn from the FTX / SBF disaster? An in-depth discussion with Will MacAskill on the Clearer Thinking podcast In this new podcast episode, I discuss with Will MacAskill what the Effective Altruism community can learn from the FTX / SBF debacle, why Will has been limited in what he coul...
f949abd4-6e42-40d1-afe8-cf9a2509ee63
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Somerville Mask Usage Two months ago, Somerville made facecoverings mandatory, both indoors and out. A few weeks later the state of Massachusetts required them " in public places where social distancing is not possible". A week ago Somerville reduced its requirements in light of the heat: "during the summer months, wh...
7fc84c23-172a-4892-a488-321226c771db
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Complex Behavior from Simple (Sub)Agents Epistemic Status: Simultaneously this is work that took me a long time and a lot of thought, and also a playful and highly speculative investigation. Consider taking this seriously but not literally. Introduction Take a simple agent (GitHub; Python), with no capacity for lear...
963a5ff8-dc59-4d79-8b54-99c385ee2fe2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Pricing externalities is not necessarily economically efficient > [A]s long as externalities exist and are not internalized via Pigouvian taxes, the result is inefficient. The inefficiency is eliminated by charging the polluter an emission fee equal to the damage done by his pollution. In some real world cases it may ...
678a59d9-f5c6-4875-a85c-27c248e90d0b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Steering systems Preface: who this post is for This post is mainly targeted at people who are already familiar with the concepts and terminology in alignment, AI x-risk, and particularly the case for high probabilities of doom, but disagree with the arguments or have bounced off of them for one reason or another. If ...
35687d47-a160-48ae-8c89-d3d6e1d36171
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Prediction: any uncontrollable AI will turn earth into a giant computer It is a common assumption that a hypothetical superintelligent [squiggle maximizer](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/squiggle-maximizer-formerly-paperclip-maximizer) would turn all of earth into squiggles, destroying humanity and all life in the proc...
4958998d-0a9f-4599-bd05-324091eb22f4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
*New* Canada AI Safety & Governance community Hello everyone, Wyatt here, the new AIS/G field-builder for Canada. In June I received an EA LTFF fund grant to "connect, expand and enable the AGI Safety & Governance community in Canada", with the goal of making Canada a net positive force on the world stage for transfo...
d1d72f28-5d4e-4cf2-b6e8-b462853a27aa
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Weekly LW Meetups: Austin; Atlanta; Cleveland; Montreal; Sofia, Bulgaria; Toronto; Vancouver; Washington DC This summary was posted to LW Main on Dec 7th. The following week's summary is here. There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in: * Moscow: Applied Rationality and Cognitive Biases: 08 Dece...
5b690e35-294e-435e-b623-8221dcad4ad8
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Paul Christiano – Machine intelligence and capital accumulation The distribution of wealth in the world 1000 years ago appears to have had a relatively small effect—or more precisely an unpredictable effect, whose expected value was small *ex ante—*on the world of today. I think there is a good chance that AI will fun...
80fa8603-e0ea-445c-b810-7be1241e4b41
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"Warning: sappy personal anecdotes ahead! See also Eliezer's Coming of Age story, SarahC's Reflections on rationality a year out, and Alicorn's Polyhacking. On January 11, 2007, at age 21, I finally whispered to myself: There is no God. I felt the world collapse beneath me. I'd been raised to believe that God was neces...